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Rationale South African adolescents carry a high tuberculosis disease burden. It is not known if schools are high-risk settings for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) transmission. Objectives To detect airborne MTB genomic DNA in classrooms. Methods We studied 72 classrooms occupied by 1,836 students in two South African schools. High-volume air filtration was performed for median 40 minutes (interquartile range 35-54) and assayed by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) targeting MTB Region of Difference 9 (RD9), with concurrent CO2 concentration measurement. Classroom data were benchmarked against public health clinics. Students who consented to individual TB screening completed a questionnaire and sputum collection (Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra) if symptom-positive. Poisson statistics were used for MTB RD9 copy quantification. Measurements and Main Results ddPCR assays were positive in 13/72 (18.1%) classroom and 4/39 (10.3%) clinic measurements (p=0.276). Median ambient CO2 concentration was 886 ppm (IQR 747-1223) in classrooms vs. 490 ppm (IQR 405-587) in clinics (p

Background Tuberculosis (TB) preventive therapy is recommended for all people living with HIV (PLHIV). Despite the elevated risk of TB amongst PLHIV, most of those eligible for preventive therapy would never develop TB. Tests which can identify individuals at greatest risk of disease would allow more efficient targeting of preventive therapy. Methods We used mathematical modelling to estimate the potential impact of using a blood transcriptomic biomarker (RISK11) to target preventive therapy amongst PLHIV. We compared universal treatment to RISK11 targeted treatment and explored the effect of repeat screening of the population with RISK11. Results Annual RISK11 screening, with preventive therapy provided to those testing positive, could avert 26% (95% CI 13–34) more cases over 10 years compared to one round of universal treatment. For the cost per case averted to be lower than universal treatment, the maximum cost of the RISK11 test was approximately 10% of the cost of preventive therapy. The benefit of RISK11 screening may be greatest amongst PLHIV on ART (compared to ART naïve individuals) due to the increased specificity of the test in this group. Conclusions Biomarker targeted preventive therapy may be more effective than universal treatment amongst PLHIV in high incidence settings but would require repeat screening.

Summary Background A rapid, blood-based triage test that allows targeted investigation for tuberculosis at the point of care could shorten the time to tuberculosis treatment and reduce mortality. We aimed to test the performance of a host blood transcriptomic signature (RISK11) in diagnosing tuberculosis and predicting progression to active pulmonary disease (prognosis) in people with HIV in a community setting. Methods In this prospective diagnostic and prognostic accuracy study, adults (aged 18–59 years) with HIV were recruited from five communities in South Africa. Individuals with a history of tuberculosis or household exposure to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis within the past 3 years, comorbid risk factors for tuberculosis, or any condition that would interfere with the study were excluded. RISK11 status was assessed at baseline by real-time PCR; participants and study staff were masked to the result. Participants underwent active surveillance for microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis by providing spontaneously expectorated sputum samples at baseline, if symptomatic during 15 months of follow-up, and at 15 months (the end of the study). The coprimary outcomes were the prevalence and cumulative incidence of tuberculosis disease confirmed by a positive Xpert MTB/RIF, Xpert Ultra, or Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube culture, or a combination of such, on at least two separate sputum samples collected within any 30-day period. Findings Between March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 963 participants were assessed for eligibility and 861 were enrolled. Among 820 participants with valid RISK11 results, eight (1%) had prevalent tuberculosis at baseline: seven (2·5%; 95% CI 1·2–5·0) of 285 RISK11-positive participants and one (0·2%; 0·0–1·1) of 535 RISK11-negative participants. The relative risk (RR) of prevalent tuberculosis was 13·1 times (95% CI 2·1–81·6) greater in RISK11-positive participants than in RISK11-negative participants. RISK11 had a diagnostic area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 88·2% (95% CI 77·6–96·7), and a sensitivity of 87·5% (58·3–100·0) and specificity of 65·8% (62·5–69·0) at a predefined score threshold (60%). Of those with RISK11 results, eight had primary endpoint incident tuberculosis during 15 months of follow-up. Tuberculosis incidence was 2·5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·7–4·4) in the RISK11-positive group and 0·2 per 100 person-years (0·0–0·5) in the RISK11-negative group. The probability of primary endpoint incident tuberculosis was greater in the RISK11-positive group than in the RISK11-negative group (cumulative incidence ratio 16·0 [95% CI 2·0–129·5]). RISK11 had a prognostic AUC of 80·0% (95% CI 70·6–86·9), and a sensitivity of 88·6% (43·5–98·7) and a specificity of 68·9% (65·3–72·3) for incident tuberculosis at the 60% threshold. Interpretation RISK11 identified prevalent tuberculosis and predicted risk of progression to incident tuberculosis within 15 months in ambulant people living with HIV. RISK11's performance approached, but did not meet, WHO's target product profile benchmarks for screening and prognostic tests for tuberculosis. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the South African Medical Research Council.

Background In human blood, mucosal-associated invariant T (MAIT) cells are abundant T cells that recognize antigens presented on non-polymorphic major histocompatibility complex-related 1 (MR1) molecules. The MAIT cells are activated by mycobacteria, and prior human studies indicate that blood frequencies of MAIT cells, defined by cell surface markers, decline during tuberculosis (TB) disease, consistent with redistribution to the lungs. Methods We tested whether frequencies of blood MAIT cells were altered in patients with TB disease relative to healthy Mycobacterium tuberculosis-exposed controls from Peru and South Africa. We quantified their frequencies using MR1 tetramers loaded with 5-(2-oxopropylideneamino)-6-D-ribitylaminouracil. Results Unlike findings from prior studies, frequencies of blood MAIT cells were similar among patients with TB disease and latent and uninfected controls. In both cohorts, frequencies of MAIT cells defined by MR1-tetramer staining and coexpression of CD161 and the T-cell receptor alpha variable gene TRAV1-2 were strongly correlated. Disease severity captured by body mass index or TB disease transcriptional signatures did not correlate with MAIT cell frequencies in patients with TB. Conclusions Major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-related 1-restrictied MAIT cells are detected at similar levels with tetramers or surface markers. Unlike MHC-restricted T cells, blood frequencies of MAIT cells are poor correlates of TB disease but may play a role in pathophysiology.

Objectives We evaluated longitudinal kinetics of an 11-gene blood transcriptomic tuberculosis (TB) signature, RISK11, and effects of TB preventative therapy (TPT) and respiratory organisms on RISK1...

We tested performance of host-blood transcriptomic tuberculosis (TB) signatures for active case-finding. Among 20,207 HIV-uninfected and 963 HIV-infected adults screened; 2,923 and 861 were enrolled from five South African communities. Eight signatures were measured by microfluidic RT-qPCR and participants were microbiologically-investigated for pulmonary TB at baseline, and actively surveilled for incident disease through 15 months. Diagnostic AUCs for 61 HIV-uninfected (weighted-prevalence 1.1%) and 10 HIV-infected (prevalence 1.2%) prevalent TB cases for the 8 signatures were 0.63–0.79 and 0.65–0.88, respectively. Thereafter, 24 HIV-uninfected and 9 HIV-infected participants progressed to incident TB (1.1 and 1.0 per 100 person-years, respectively). Prognostic AUCs through 15-months follow-up were 0.49–0.66 and 0.54–0.81, respectively. Prognostic performance for incident TB occurring within 6-12 months in HIV-negative participants was higher for all signatures. None of the signatures met WHO Target Product Profile criteria for a triage test to diagnose asymptomatic TB; most signatures met the criteria for symptomatic TB. Prognostic accuracy of most signatures for incident TB within six months of testing met the criteria for an incipient TB test.

The Global Forum on Tuberculosis (TB) Vaccines was held virtually from 20 to 22 April 2021, marking its 20th anniversary. The Global Forum on TB Vaccines is the world's largest gathering of stakeholders striving to develop new vaccines to prevent TB. The program included more than 60 speakers in 11 scientific sessions, panel discussions, and workshops. It provided an overview of the state of the field, and an opportunity to share the latest research findings, as well as new and innovative approaches to TB vaccine research and development (R&D). This year, it was held against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic and convened researchers, developers, funders, and other stakeholders remotely to discuss opportunities and challenges for TB vaccine R&D in these unprecedented times.

Summary Background Targeted preventive therapy for individuals at highest risk of incident tuberculosis might impact the epidemic by interrupting transmission. We tested performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (RISK11) and efficacy of signature-guided preventive therapy in parallel, using a hybrid three-group study design. Methods Adult volunteers aged 18–59 years were recruited at five geographically distinct communities in South Africa. Whole blood was sampled for RISK11 by quantitative RT-PCR assay from eligible volunteers without HIV, recent previous tuberculosis (ie

Background Adolescents in the Western Cape Province of South Africa had high force of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection (14% per annum) and high TB incidence (710 per 100,000 person-years) in 2005. We describe subsequent temporal changes in adolescent TB disease notification rates for the decade 2005-2015. Method We conducted an analysis of patient-level adolescent (age 10-19 years) TB disease data, obtained from an electronic TB register in the Breede Valley sub-district, Western Cape Province, South Africa, for 2005-2015. Numerators were annual TB notifications (HIV-related and HIV-unrelated); denominators were mid-year population estimates. Period averages of TB rates were obtained using time series modeling. Temporal trends in TB rates were explored using the Mann-Kendall test. Findings The average adolescent TB disease notification rate was 477 per 100,000 for all TB patients (all-TB) and 361 per 100,000 for microbiologically-confirmed patients. The adolescent all-TB rate declined by 45% from 662 to 361 per 100,000 and the microbiologically-confirmed TB rate by 38% from 492 to 305 per 100,000 between 2005-2015, driven mainly by rapid decreases for the period 2005-2009. There was a statistically significant negative temporal trend in both all-TB (per 100,000) (declined by 48%; from 662 to 343; p = 0·028) and microbiologically confirmed TB (per 100,000) (declined by 49%; from 492 to 252; p = 0·027) for 2005-2009, which was not observed for the period 2009-2015 (rose 5%; from 343 to 361; p = 0·764 and rose 21%; from 252 to 305; p = 1·000, respectively). Interpretation We observed an encouraging fall in adolescent TB disease rates between 2005-2009 with a subsequent plateau during 2010-2015, suggesting that additional interventions are needed to sustain initial advances in TB control.

Introduction Respiratory pathogens such as influenza viruses may play an influential role in the pathogenesis of TB by negatively affecting immunity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) We discovered and validated a transcriptomic signature of risk (SOR), based on mRNA expression of 11 IFN stimulated genes (ISG), which prospectively differentiates between incident TB cases and healthy controls The SOR score is computed from expression abundance of multiple ISG transcript pairs in peripheral blood, whereby each pair functions as a ?vote? for or against TB risk We aimed to identify respiratory pathogens other than MTB that might also associate with this SOR score and test whether the SOR score differentiates between individuals with and without respiratory pathogens Methods We conducted a nested cross-sectional study of the upper respiratory tract microbiome Upon consent, participants were consecutively enrolled into the study and provided one nasopharyngeal, one oropharyngeal and a PAXgene blood sample Host blood SOR scores were computed from Ct values for each of the 11 genes, measured by microfluidic qRT-PCR We used multiplex real-time PCR to detect 33 pathogens including bacteria, viruses and fungi in the nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal samples Multivariate linear regression was used to identify pathogens associated with, and estimate their effect on, the SOR score Wilcoxon rank sum tests and receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curves were used to differentiate participants with and without respiratory pathogens Results 1,000 HIV-negative volunteers aged between 18 and 60 years were enrolled 13 viral and nine bacterial pathogens were detected Overall prevalence of respiratory pathogens was 43%: 4% were viruses only, 35 8% bacteria only, and 3 2% were a combination of viruses and bacteria Influenza C, rhinoviruses, coronavirus OC43, adenoviruses, and mycoplasma pneumoniae were significantly associated (Table 1) with a high SOR score In ROC curve analysis the SOR score differentiated participants as follows;virus vs no-pathogen (area under the curve;AUC) AUC=0 72, 95% CI: 0 63-0 81, virus vs bacteria AUC=0 72, 95% CI: 0 63-0 81, bacteria vs no-pathogen AUC=0 51, 95% CI: 0 48-0 55 (no difference) Participants with either viruses only or both viruses and bacteria had significantly higher (P=0 001) SOR scores (median 47% and 43%, respectively) compared to participants without pathogens (median 14%) or participants with bacteria only (median 13%) Conclusion Participants with upper respiratory tract viral colonization or infection had elevated SOR scores, suggesting induction of interferon signalling Infection or colonization with respiratory viruses is likely to result in false positive results for other transcriptomic signatures of tuberculosis based on ISGs (Table Presented)

Summary Background Blood transcriptional signatures are candidates for non-sputum triage or confirmatory tests of tuberculosis. Prospective head-to-head comparisons of their diagnostic accuracy in real-world settings are necessary to assess their clinical use. We aimed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of candidate transcriptional signatures identified by systematic review, in a setting with a high burden of tuberculosis and HIV. Methods We did a prospective observational study nested within a diagnostic accuracy study of sputum Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Ultra) tests for pulmonary tuberculosis. We recruited consecutive symptomatic adults aged 18 years or older self-presenting to a tuberculosis clinic in Cape Town, South Africa. Participants provided blood for RNA sequencing, and sputum samples for liquid culture and molecular testing using Xpert and Ultra. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of candidate blood transcriptional signatures for active tuberculosis (including those intended to distinguish active tuberculosis from other diseases) identified by systematic review, compared with culture or Xpert MTB/RIF positivity as the standard reference. In our primary analysis, patients with tuberculosis were defined as those with either a positive liquid culture or Xpert result. Patients with missing blood RNA or sputum results were excluded. Our primary objective was to benchmark the diagnostic accuracy of candidate transcriptional signatures against the WHO target product profile (TPP) for a tuberculosis triage test. Findings Between Feb 12, 2016, and July 18, 2017, we obtained paired sputum and RNA sequencing data from 181 participants, 54 (30%) of whom had confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. Of 27 eligible signatures identified by systematic review, four achieved the highest diagnostic accuracy with similar area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (Sweeney3: 90·6% [95% CI 85·6–95·6]; Kaforou25: 86·9% [80·9–92·9]; Roe3: 86·9% [80·3–93·5]; and BATF2: 86·8% [80·6–93·1]), independent of age, sex, HIV status, previous tuberculosis, or sputum smear result. At test thresholds that gave 70% specificity (the minimum WHO TPP specificity for a triage test), these four signatures achieved sensitivities between 83·3% (95% CI 71·3–91·0) and 90·7% (80·1–96·0). No signature met the optimum criteria, of 95% sensitivity and 80% specificity proposed by WHO for a triage test, or the minimum criteria (of 65% sensitivity and 98% specificity) for a confirmatory test, but all four correctly identified Ultra-positive, culture-negative patients. Interpretation Selected blood transcriptional signatures met the minimum WHO benchmarks for a tuberculosis triage test but not for a confirmatory test. Further development of the signatures is warranted to investigate their possible effects on clinical and health economic outcomes as part of a triage strategy, or when used as add-on confirmatory test in conjunction with the highly sensitive Ultra test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA. Funding Royal Society Newton Advanced Fellowship, Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Health Research, and UK Medical Research Council.

Background: We tested diagnostic and prognostic performance of a host blood transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (RISK11) for screening of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in a prospective, community-based cohort. Methods: Ambulant adult volunteers living with HIV were enrolled at five South African sites. RISK11 status was assessed at baseline by real-time PCR. Participants and study staff were blinded to the result. Participants underwent active surveillance for microbiologically-confirmed tuberculosis from enrolment through 15 months. The primary outcomes were prevalence and cumulative incidence of two-sputum-sample positive tuberculosis in RISK11+ versus RISK11- participants. Findings: Among 820 participants with valid RISK11 results, eight (1%) tuberculosis cases were identified at baseline. Risk of prevalent tuberculosis was 13·1-fold (95%CI 2·1-81·6) greater in RISK11+ than RISK11- participants, with tuberculosis prevalence of 2·5% and 0·2%, respectively. RISK11 had diagnostic area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) 88·2%; sensitivity 87·5% and specificity 65·8% at the pre-defined threshold (60%).Thereafter, eight tuberculosis cases were identified through median 15 months follow-up. Tuberculosis incidence was 2·5 vs 0·2 per 100 person-years in RISK11+ compared to RISK11- participants with cumulative incidence ratio 16·0 (95%CI 2·0-129·5); AUC 80·0%; sensitivity 88·6% and specificity 68·9%. By comparison, QuantiFERON TB Gold-Plus (QFT) had a cumulative incidence ratio of 2·0 (95%CI 0·5-8·4); AUC 70·8%; sensitivity 62·1% and specificity 56·2%. Interpretation: RISK11 identified prevalent tuberculosis and predicted risk of progression to incident tuberculosis within 15 months in ambulant PLHIV. Performance approached the World Health Organization Target Product Profile benchmarks for screening and prognostic tests for tuberculosis. QFT performance fell short of the prognostic benchmark. Funding Statement: The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (OPP1151915) and by the Strategic Health Innovation Partnerships Unit of the South African Medical Research Council with funds received from the South African Department of Science and Technology. The BMGF contributed to the study design. The regulatory sponsor was the University of Cape Town. Declaration of Interests: AP-N, GW, GC, TJS, and MH report grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, during the conduct of the study; AP-N and GW report grants from the South African Medical Research Council, during the conduct of the study; GW and TJS report grants from the South African National Research Foundation, during the conduct of the study. In addition, AP-N and TJS have patents of the RISK11 and RISK6 signatures pending; GW has a patent “TB diagnostic markers” (PCT/IB2013/054377) issued and a patent “Method for diagnosing TB” (PCT/IB2017/052142) pending. The remaining authors have no competing interests to declare. Ethics Approval Statement: The study protocol (Supplement) was approved by the Institutional Human Ethics Committees of each participating site. All participants provided written informed consent in their language of choice.

IntroductionCurrent tuberculosis triage and predictive tools offer poor accuracy and are ineffective for detecting asymptomatic disease in people living with HIV (PLHIV). Host tuberculosis transcriptomic biomarkers hold promise for diagnosing prevalent and predicting progression to incident tuberculosis and guiding further investigation, preventive therapy and follow-up. We aim to conduct a systematic review of performance of transcriptomic signatures of tuberculosis in PLHIV.Methods and analysisWe will search MEDLINE (PubMed), WOS Core Collection, Biological Abstracts, and SciELO Citation Index (Web of Science), Africa-Wide Information and General Science Abstracts (EBSCOhost), Scopus, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases for articles published in English between 1990 and 2020. Case–control, cross-sectional, cohort and randomised controlled studies evaluating performance of diagnostic and prognostic host-response transcriptomic signatures in PLHIV of all ages and settings will be included. Eligible studies will include PLHIV in signature test or validation cohorts, and use microbiological, clinical, or composite reference standards for pulmonary or extrapulmonary tuberculosis diagnosis. Study quality will be evaluated using the ‘Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2’ tool and cumulative review evidence assessed using the ‘Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation’ approach. Study selection, quality appraisal and data extraction will be performed independently by two reviewers. Study, cohort and signature characteristics of included studies will be tabulated, and a narrative synthesis of findings presented. Primary outcomes of interest, biomarker sensitivity and specificity with estimate precision, will be summarised in forest plots. Expected heterogeneity in signature characteristics, study settings, and study designs precludes meta-analysis and pooling of results. Review reporting will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies guidelines.Ethics and disseminationFormal ethics approval is not required as primary human participant data will not be collected. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication and conference presentation.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42021224155.

Improved tuberculosis diagnostics and tools for monitoring treatment response are urgently needed. We developed a robust and simple, PCR-based host-blood transcriptomic signature, RISK6, for multiple applications: identifying individuals at risk of incident disease, as a screening test for subclinical or clinical tuberculosis, and for monitoring tuberculosis treatment. RISK6 utility was validated by blind prediction using quantitative real-time (qRT) PCR in seven independent cohorts.Prognostic performance significantly exceeded that of previous signatures discovered in the same cohort. Performance for diagnosing subclinical and clinical disease in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected persons, assessed by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, exceeded 85%. As a screening test for tuberculosis, the sensitivity at 90% specificity met or approached the benchmarks set out in World Health Organization target product profiles for non-sputum-based tests. RISK6 scores correlated with lung immunopathology activity, measured by positron emission tomography, and tracked treatment response, demonstrating utility as treatment response biomarker, while predicting treatment failure prior to treatment initiation. Performance of the test in capillary blood samples collected by finger-prick was noninferior to venous blood collected in PAXgene tubes. These results support incorporation of RISK6 into rapid, capillary blood-based point-of-care PCR devices for prospective assessment in field studies.

Background: South African adolescents have a high force of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection, exceeding 10% per annum, which acts as a barometer of tuberculosis (TB) transmission. We described temporal changes in adolescent TB notification rates to evaluate impact of TB and HIV control measures and inform public health strategy. Method: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of patient-level TB case data obtained from a regional health authority in Western Cape Province, South Africa, for the decade 2005–2015. Numerators were annual TB notifications (HIV-related and HIV-unrelated); denominators were mid-year population estimates from the national census, adjusted for population growth. Period averages of TB rates were obtained using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series modeling. The Agresti Coull method was used to derive confidence intervals for TB rates. Temporal trends in TB rates were explored using the Mann-Kendall test. Findings: The average adolescent TB notification rate was 477 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 313–641) per 100,000 for all cases (all-TB) and 361 (CI: 280–441) per 100,000 for microbiologically confirmed cases. However, the adolescent all-TB rate fell by 45% from 662 to 361 per 100,000 (p=0·005) and the microbiologically-confirmed TB rate by 38% from 492 to 305 per 100,000 (p=0·008) between 2005-2015, driven mainly by rapid decreases for the period 2005–2009 (p=0·028 and p=0·027, respectively). Between 2005–2009, 21% (156/732) of adolescent TB notifications were HIV tested, 12% (19/156) of whom were HIV-positive. In the general population, the proportion of HIV-positive persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) increased from

IntroductionOne-quarter of the global population, including the majority of adults in tuberculosis (TB) endemic countries, are estimated to beMycobacterium tuberculosis(MTB) infected. An estimated 10 million new TB cases occurred in 2017. One of the biggest challenges confronting TB control is the lack of accurate diagnosis and prediction of prevalent and incident TB disease, respectively. Several host blood transcriptomic messenger RNA (mRNA) signatures that reflect the host immune response following infection with MTB and progression to TB disease in different study populations have recently been published, but these TB biomarkers have not been systematically described. We will conduct a systematic review of the performance of host blood transcriptional signatures for TB diagnosis and prediction of progression to TB disease.Methods and analysisThis systematic review will involve conducting a comprehensive literature search of cohort, case–control, cross-sectional and randomised-controlled studies of the performance of host blood transcriptomic signatures for TB diagnosis and prediction of progression to TB disease. We will search Medline via PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and EBSCO libraries, complemented by a search of bibliographies of selected articles for other relevant articles. The literature search will be restricted to studies published in English from 2005 to 2018 and conducted in HIV-uninfected adults and adolescents (≥12 years old). Forest plots and a narrative synthesis of the findings will be provided. The primary outcomes will be sensitivity, specificity, as well as true/false positives and true/false negatives. Heterogeneity resulting from differences in the design, composition and structure of individual signatures will preclude meta-analysis and pooling of results.Ethics and disseminationEthics approval is not required for this systematic review protocol. The results of this review will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed journal as well as conference presentations.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42017073817.

IntroductionHost blood transcriptomic biomarkers have potential as rapid point-of-care triage, diagnostic, and predictive tests for Tuberculosis disease. We aimed to summarise the performance of host blood transcriptomic signatures for diagnosis of and prediction of progression to Tuberculosis disease; and compare their performance to the recommended World Health Organisation target product profile.MethodsA systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of host blood mRNA signatures for diagnosing and predicting progression to Tuberculosis disease in HIV-negative adults and adolescents, in studies with an independent validation cohort. Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, and EBSCO libraries were searched for articles published between January 2005 and May 2019, complemented by a search of bibliographies. Study selection, data extraction and quality assessment were done independently by two reviewers. Meta-analysis was performed for signatures that were validated in ≥3 comparable cohorts, using a bivariate random effects model.ResultsTwenty studies evaluating 25 signatures for diagnosis of or prediction of progression to TB disease in a total of 68 cohorts were included. Eighteen studies evaluated 24 signatures for TB diagnosis and 17 signatures met at least one TPP minimum performance criterion. Three diagnostic signatures were validated in clinically relevant cohorts to differentiate TB from other diseases, with pooled sensitivity 84%, 87% and 90% and pooled specificity 79%, 88% and 74%, respectively. Four studies evaluated signatures for progression to TB disease and performance of one signature, assessed within six months of TB diagnosis, met the minimal TPP for a predictive test for progression to TB disease.ConclusionHost blood mRNA signatures hold promise as triage tests for TB. Further optimisation is needed if mRNA signatures are to be used as standalone diagnostic or predictive tests for therapeutic decision-making.