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Multiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common hematological cancer and causes significant mortality and morbidity. Knowledge regarding modifiable risk factors for MM remains limited. This analysis of an Australian population-based case-control family study investigates whether smoking or alcohol consumption is associated with risk of MM and related diseases. Incident cases (

Without preventive interventions, women with germline pathogenic variants in BRCA1 or BRCA2 have high lifetime risks for breast cancer and tubo-ovarian cancer. The increased risk for breast cancer starts at a considerably younger age than that for tubo-ovarian cancer. Risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (rrBSO) is effective in reducing tubo-ovarian cancer risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, but whether it reduces breast cancer risk is less clear. All studies of rrBSO and breast cancer risk are observational in nature and subject to various forms of bias and confounding, thus limiting conclusions that can be drawn about causation. Early studies supported a statistically significant protective association for rrBSO on breast cancer risk, which is reflected by several international guidelines that recommend consideration of premenopausal rrBSO for breast cancer risk reduction. However, these historical studies were hampered by the presence of several important biases, including immortal person-time bias, confounding by indication, informative censoring, and confounding by other risk factors, which may have led to overestimation of any protective benefit. Contemporary studies, specifically designed to reduce some of these biases, have yielded contradictory results. Taken together, there is no clear and consistent evidence for a role of premenopausal rrBSO in reducing breast cancer risk in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies examining the relations between dairy product and calcium intakes and breast cancer have been inconclusive, especially for tumor subtypes. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the associations between intakes of specific dairy products and calcium and risk of breast cancer overall and for subtypes defined by estrogen receptor (ER) status. METHOD: We pooled the individual-level data of over 1 million women who were followed for a maximum of 8–20 years across studies. Associations were evaluated for dairy product and calcium intakes and risk of incident invasive breast cancer overall (n = 37,861 cases) and by subtypes defined by ER status. Study-specific multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated and then combined using random-effects models. RESULTS: Overall, no clear association was observed between the consumption of specific dairy foods, dietary (from foods only) calcium, and total (from foods and supplements) calcium, and risk of overall breast cancer. Although each dairy product showed a null or very weak inverse association with risk of overall breast cancer (P, test for trend >0.05 for all), differences by ER status were suggested for yogurt and cottage/ricotta cheese with associations observed for ER-negative tumors only (pooled HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.98 comparing ≥60 g/d with

Background: It is not known whether modifiable lifestyle factors that predict survival after invasive breast cancer differ by subtype. Methods: We analyzed data for 121,435 women diagnosed with breast cancer from 67 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium with 16,890 deaths (8,554 breast cancer specific) over 10 years. Cox regression was used to estimate associations between risk factors and 10-year all-cause mortality and breast cancer–specific mortality overall, by estrogen receptor (ER) status, and by intrinsic-like subtype. Results: There was no evidence of heterogeneous associations between risk factors and mortality by subtype (Padj > 0.30). The strongest associations were between all-cause mortality and BMI ≥30 versus 18.5–25 kg/m2 [HR (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.19 (1.06–1.34)]; current versus never smoking [1.37 (1.27–1.47)], high versus low physical activity [0.43 (0.21–0.86)], age ≥30 years versus 0– Conclusions: We confirm associations between modifiable lifestyle factors and 10-year all-cause mortality. There was no strong evidence that associations differed by ER status or intrinsic-like subtype. Impact: Given the large dataset and lack of evidence that associations between modifiable risk factors and 10-year mortality differed by subtype, these associations could be cautiously used in prognostication models to inform patient-centered care.

Increased implementation of proven prevention strategies is required to combat rising breast cancer incidence. We assessed use of risk reducing medication (RRMed) by Australian women at elevated breast cancer risk. Only 2.4% had ever used RRMed. Higher breast cancer risk was statistically significantly associated with use of RRMed (OR 1.82, 95%CI: 1.08–3.07, p = 0.02 for ≥30% lifetime risk compared with 16%–29% lifetime risk), but parity, education level and family history of breast cancer were not. Breast cancer prevention medications are underutilised. Efforts are needed to incorporate breast cancer risk assessment and risk management discussions into routine health assessments for women., Highlights • Risk-reducing medication is infrequently used by Australian women at increased risk of breast cancer. • Higher breast cancer risk is associated with greater uptake of risk reducing medication, but not with adherence. • Routine breast cancer risk assessment may increase risk reducing medication use.

Germline variation and smoking are independently associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We conducted genome-wide smoking interaction analysis of PDAC using genotype data from four previous genome-wide association studies in individuals of European ancestry (7,937 cases and 11,774 controls). Examination of expression quantitative trait loci data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression Project followed by colocalization analysis was conducted to determine whether there was support for common SNP(s) underlying the observed associations. Statistical tests were two sided and P < 5 × 10–8 was considered statistically significant. Genome-wide significant evidence of qualitative interaction was identified on chr2q21.3 in intron 5 of the transmembrane protein 163 (TMEM163) and upstream of the cyclin T2 (CCNT2). The most significant SNP using the Empirical Bayes method, in this region that included 45 significantly associated SNPs, was rs1818613 [per allele OR in never smokers 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.82–0.93; former smokers 1.00, 95% CI, 0.91–1.07; current smokers 1.25, 95% CI 1.12–1.40, Pinteraction = 3.08 × 10–9). Examination of the Genotype-Tissue Expression Project data demonstrated an expression quantitative trait locus in this region for TMEM163 and CCNT2 in several tissue types. Colocalization analysis supported a shared SNP, rs842357, in high linkage disequilibrium with rs1818613 (r2 = 0. 94) driving both the observed interaction and the expression quantitative trait loci signals. Future studies are needed to confirm and understand the differential biologic mechanisms by smoking status that contribute to our PDAC findings. Significance: This large genome-wide interaction study identifies a susceptibility locus on 2q21.3 that significantly modified PDAC risk by smoking status, providing insight into smoking-associated PDAC, with implications for prevention.

Guidelines endorse the use of chemoprevention for breast cancer risk reduction. This study examined the barriers and facilitators to chemoprevention use for Australian women at increased risk of breast cancer, and their clinicians. Surveys, based on the Theoretical Domains Framework, were mailed to 1,113 women at ≥16% lifetime risk of breast cancer who were enrolled in the Kathleen Cuningham Foundation Consortium for Research into Familial Breast Cancer cohort study (kConFab), and their 524 treating clinicians. Seven hundred twenty-five women (65%) and 221 (42%) clinicians responded. Only 10 (1.4%) kConFab women had ever taken chemoprevention. Three hundred seventy-eight (52%) kConFab women, two (3%) breast surgeons, and 51 (35%) family physicians were not aware of chemoprevention. For women, the strongest barriers to chemoprevention were side effects (31%) and inadequate information (23%), which operate in the Theoretical Domains Framework domains of “beliefs about consequences” and “knowledge,” respectively. Strongest facilitators related to tamoxifen's long-term efficacy (35%, “knowledge,” “beliefs about consequences,” and “goals” domains), staying healthy for family (13%, “social role” and “goals” domains), and abnormal breast biopsy (13%, “environmental context” domain). The strongest barrier for family physicians was insufficient knowledge (45%, “knowledge” domain) and for breast surgeons was medication side effects (40%, “beliefs about consequences” domain). The strongest facilitators for both clinician groups related to clear guidelines, strong family history, and better tools to select patients (“environmental context and resources” domain). Clinician knowledge and resources, and beliefs about the side-effect consequences of chemoprevention, are key domains that could be targeted to potentially enhance uptake. Prevention Relevance: Despite its efficacy in reducing breast cancer incidence, chemoprevention is underutilised. This survey study of Australian women and their clinicians used behavioural change theory to identify modifiable barriers to chemoprevention uptake, and to suggest interventions such as policy change, educational resources and public campaigns, that may increase awareness and use. See related Spotlight by Vogel, p. 1

Associations between anthropometric factors and breast cancer (BC) risk have varied inconsistently by estrogen and/or progesterone receptor (ER/PR) status. Associations between prediagnostic anthropometric factors and risk of premenopausal and postmenopausal BC overall and ER/PR status subtypes were investigated in a pooled analysis of 20 prospective cohorts, including 36,297 BC cases among 1,061,915 women, using multivariable Cox regression analyses, controlling for reproductive factors, diet and other risk factors. We estimated dose–response relationships and tested for nonlinear associations using restricted cubic splines. Height showed positive, linear associations for premenopausal and postmenopausal BC risk (6–7% RR increase per 5 cm increment), with stronger associations for receptor-positive subtypes. Body mass index (BMI) at cohort baseline was strongly inversely associated with premenopausal BC risk, and strongly positively—and nonlinearly—associated with postmenopausal BC (especially among women who never used hormone replacement therapy). This was primarily observed for receptor-positive subtypes. Early adult BMI (at 18–20 years) showed inverse, linear associations for premenopausal and postmenopausal BC risk (21% and 11% RR decrease per 5 kg/m2, respectively) with stronger associations for receptor-negative subtypes. Adult weight gain since 18–20 years was positively associated with postmenopausal BC risk, stronger for receptor-positive subtypes, and among women who were leaner in early adulthood. Women heavier in early adulthood generally had reduced premenopausal BC risk, independent of later weight gain. Positive associations between height, baseline (adult) BMI, adult weight gain and postmenopausal BC risk were substantially stronger for hormone receptor-positive versus negative subtypes. Premenopausal BC risk was positively associated with height, but inversely with baseline BMI and weight gain (mostly in receptor-positive subtypes). Inverse associations with early adult BMI seemed stronger in receptor-negative subtypes of premenopausal and postmenopausal BC. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10654-020-00688-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background: Use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) is associated with increased risk for breast cancer. However, the relevant mechanisms and its interaction with genetic variants are not fully understood. Methods: We conducted a genome-wide interaction analysis between MHT use and genetic variants for breast cancer risk in 27,585 cases and 34,785 controls from 26 observational studies. All women were post-menopausal and of European ancestry. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test for multiplicative interactions between genetic variants and current MHT use. We considered interaction p-values-8 as genome-wide significant, and p-values-5 as suggestive. Linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based clumping was performed to identify independent candidate variants.Results: None of the 9.7 million genetic variants tested for interactions with MHT use reached genome-wide significance. Only 213 variants, representing 18 independent loci, had p-values5. The strongest evidence was found for rs4674019 (p-value=2.27x10-7), which showed genome-wide significant interaction (p-value=3.8x10-8) with current MHT use when analysis was restricted to population-based studies only. Limiting the analyses to combined estrogen-progesterone MHT use only or to estrogen receptor (ER) positive cases did not identify any genome-wide significant evidence of interactions. Conclusions: In this large genome-wide SNP-MHT interaction study of breast cancer, we found no strong support for common genetic variants modifying the effect of MHT on breast cancer risk. These results suggest that common genetic variation has limited impact on the observed MHT–breast cancer risk association.

Mammograms contain information that predicts breast cancer risk. We developed two novel mammogram-based breast cancer risk measures based on image brightness (Cirrocumulus) and texture (Cirrus). Their risk prediction when fitted together, and with an established measure of conventional mammographic density (Cumulus), is not known. We used three studies consisting of: 168 interval cases and 498 matched controls; 422 screen-detected cases and 1197 matched controls; and 354 younger-diagnosis cases and 944 controls frequency-matched for age at mammogram. We conducted conditional and unconditional logistic regression analyses of individually- and frequency-matched studies, respectively. We estimated measure-specific risk gradients as the change in odds per standard deviation of controls after adjusting for age and body mass index (OPERA) and calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). For interval, screen-detected and younger-diagnosis cancer risks, the best fitting models (OPERAs [95% confidence intervals]) involved: Cumulus (1.81 [1.41-2.31]) and Cirrus (1.72 [1.38-2.14]); Cirrus (1.49 [1.32-1.67]) and Cirrocumulus (1.16 [1.03 to 1.31]); and Cirrus (1.70 [1.48 to 1.94]) and Cirrocumulus (1.46 [1.27-1.68]), respectively. The AUCs were: 0.73 [0.68-0.77], 0.63 [0.60-0.66], and 0.72 [0.69-0.75], respectively. Combined, our new mammogram-based measures have twice the risk gradient for screen-detected and younger-diagnosis breast cancer (P ≤ 10-12 ), have at least the same discriminatory power as the current polygenic risk score, and are more correlated with causal factors than conventional mammographic density. Discovering more information about breast cancer risk from mammograms could help enable risk-based personalised breast screening.

Background: High numbers of lymphocytes in tumor tissue, including T regulatory cells (Treg), have been associated with better colorectal cancer survival. Tregs, a subset of CD4+ T lymphocytes, are mediators of immunosuppression in cancer, and therefore variants in genes related to Treg differentiation and function could be associated with colorectal cancer prognosis. Methods: In a prospective German cohort of 3,593 colorectal cancer patients, we assessed the association of 771 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in 58 Treg-related genes with overall and colorectal cancer–specific survival using Cox regression models. Effect modification by microsatellite instability (MSI) status was also investigated because tumors with MSI show greater lymphocytic infiltration and have been associated with better prognosis. Replication of significant results was attempted in 2,047 colorectal cancer patients of the International Survival Analysis in Colorectal Cancer Consortium (ISACC). Results: A significant association of the TGFBR3 SNP rs7524066 with more favorable colorectal cancer–specific survival [hazard ratio (HR) per minor allele: 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74–0.94; P value: 0.0033] was replicated in ISACC (HR: 0.82; 95% CI, 0.68–0.98; P value: 0.03). Suggestive evidence for association was found with two IL7 SNPs, rs16906568 and rs7845577. Thirteen SNPs with differential associations with overall survival according to MSI in the discovery analysis were not confirmed. Conclusions: Common genetic variation in the Treg pathway implicating genes such as TGFBR3 and IL7 was shown to be associated with prognosis of colorectal cancer patients. Impact: The implicated genes warrant further investigation.

Background: Whether circulating polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) levels are associated with pancreatic cancer risk is uncertain. Mendelian randomization (MR) represents a study design using genetic instruments to better characterize the relationship between exposure and outcome. Methods: We utilized data from genome-wide association studies within the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium and Pancreatic Cancer Case–Control Consortium, involving approximately 9,269 cases and 12,530 controls of European descent, to evaluate associations between pancreatic cancer risk and genetically predicted plasma n-6 PUFA levels. Conventional MR analyses were performed using individual-level and summary-level data. Results: Using genetic instruments, we did not find evidence of associations between genetically predicted plasma n-6 PUFA levels and pancreatic cancer risk [estimates per one SD increase in each PUFA-specific weighted genetic score using summary statistics: linoleic acid odds ratio (OR) = 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.98–1.02; arachidonic acid OR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.99–1.01; and dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid OR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.87–1.02]. The OR estimates remained virtually unchanged after adjustment for covariates, using individual-level data or summary statistics, or stratification by age and sex. Conclusions: Our results suggest that variations of genetically determined plasma n-6 PUFA levels are not associated with pancreatic cancer risk. Impact: These results suggest that modifying n-6 PUFA levels through food sources or supplementation may not influence risk of pancreatic cancer.

While the association between fruit consumption and bladder cancer risk has been extensively reported, studies have had inadequate statistical power to investigate associations between types of fruit and bladder cancer risk satisfactorily. Fruit consumption in relation to bladder cancer risk was investigated by pooling individual data from 13 cohort studies. Cox regression models with attained age as time scale were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for intakes of total fruit and citrus fruits, soft fruits, stone fruits, tropical fruits, pome fruits and fruit products. Analyses were stratified by sex, smoking status and bladder cancer subtype. During on average 11.2 years of follow-up, 2836 individuals developed incident bladder cancer. Increasing fruit consumption (by 100 g/day) was inversely associated with the risk of bladder cancer in women (HR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.85-0.99). Although in women the association with fruit consumption was most evident for higher-risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC; HR = 0.72; 95% CI 0.56-0.92), the test for heterogeneity by bladder cancer subtype was nonsignificant (P-heterogeneity = .14). Increasing fruit consumption (by 100 g/day) was not associated with bladder cancer risk in men (HR = 0.99; 95% CI 0.94-1.03), never smokers (HR = 0.96; 95% CI 0.88-1.05), former smokers (HR = 0.98; 95% CI 0.92-1.05) or current smokers (HR = 0.95; 95% CI 0.89-1.01). The consumption of any type of fruit was not found to be associated with bladder cancer risk (P values > .05). Our study supports no evidence that the consumption of specific types of fruit reduces the risk of bladder cancer. However, increasing total fruit consumption may reduce bladder cancer risk in women.

Registry-based epidemiologic studies suggest associations between chronic inflammatory intestinal diseases and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). As genetic susceptibility contributes to a large proportion of chronic inflammatory intestinal diseases, we hypothesize that the genomic regions surrounding established genome-wide associated variants for these chronic inflammatory diseases are associated with PDAC. We examined the association between PDAC and genomic regions (±500 kb) surrounding established common susceptibility variants for ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease, inflammatory bowel disease, celiac disease, chronic pancreatitis, and primary sclerosing cholangitis. We analyzed summary statistics from genome-wide association studies data for 8,384 cases and 11,955 controls of European descent from two large consortium studies using the summary data-based adaptive rank truncated product method to examine the overall association of combined genomic regions for each inflammatory disease group. Combined genomic susceptibility regions for ulcerative colitis, Crohn disease, inflammatory bowel disease, and chronic pancreatitis were associated with PDAC at P values < 0.05 (0.0040, 0.0057, 0.011, and 3.4 × 10−6, respectively). After excluding the 20 PDAC susceptibility regions (±500 kb) previously identified by GWAS, the genomic regions for ulcerative colitis, Crohn disease, and inflammatory bowel disease remained associated with PDAC (P = 0.0029, 0.0057, and 0.0098, respectively). Genomic regions for celiac disease (P = 0.22) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (P = 0.078) were not associated with PDAC. Our results support the hypothesis that genomic regions surrounding variants associated with inflammatory intestinal diseases, particularly, ulcerative colitis, Crohn disease, inflammatory bowel disease, and chronic pancreatitis are associated with PDAC. Significance: The joint effects of common variants in genomic regions containing susceptibility loci for inflammatory bowel disease and chronic pancreatitis are associated with PDAC and may provide insights to understanding pancreatic cancer etiology.

Background: Obesity and diabetes are major modifiable risk factors for pancreatic cancer. Interactions between genetic variants and diabetes/obesity have not previously been comprehensively investigated in pancreatic cancer at the genome-wide level. Methods: We conducted a gene–environment interaction (GxE) analysis including 8,255 cases and 11,900 controls from four pancreatic cancer genome-wide association study (GWAS) datasets (Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium I–III and Pancreatic Cancer Case Control Consortium). Obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2) and diabetes (duration ≥3 years) were the environmental variables of interest. Approximately 870,000 SNPs (minor allele frequency ≥0.005, genotyped in at least one dataset) were analyzed. Case–control (CC), case-only (CO), and joint-effect test methods were used for SNP-level GxE analysis. As a complementary approach, gene-based GxE analysis was also performed. Age, sex, study site, and principal components accounting for population substructure were included as covariates. Meta-analysis was applied to combine individual GWAS summary statistics. Results: No genome-wide significant interactions (departures from a log-additive odds model) with diabetes or obesity were detected at the SNP level by the CC or CO approaches. The joint-effect test detected numerous genome-wide significant GxE signals in the GWAS main effects top hit regions, but the significance diminished after adjusting for the GWAS top hits. In the gene-based analysis, a significant interaction of diabetes with variants in the FAM63A (family with sequence similarity 63 member A) gene (significance threshold P < 1.25 × 10−6) was observed in the meta-analysis (PGxE = 1.2 ×10−6, PJoint = 4.2 ×10−7). Conclusions: This analysis did not find significant GxE interactions at the SNP level but found one significant interaction with diabetes at the gene level. A larger sample size might unveil additional genetic factors via GxE scans. Impact: This study may contribute to discovering the mechanism of diabetes-associated pancreatic cancer.

Little is known about the association of diet with risk of bladder cancer. This might be due to the fact that the majority of studies have focused on single food items, rather than dietary patterns, which may better capture any influence of diet on bladder cancer risk. We aimed to investigate the association between a measure of Western dietary pattern and bladder cancer risk. Associations between adherence to a Western dietary pattern and risk of developing bladder cancer were assessed by pooling data from 13 prospective cohort studies in the “BLadder cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants” (BLEND) study and applying Cox regression analysis. Dietary data from 580 768 study participants, including 3401 incident cases, and 577 367 noncases were analyzed. A direct and significant association was observed between higher adherence to a Western dietary pattern and risk of bladder cancer (hazard ratio (HR) comparing highest with lowest tertile scores: 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.37, 1.72; P‐trend = .001). This association was observed for men (HR comparing highest with lowest tertile scores: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.51, 1.96; P‐trend = .001), but not women (P‐het = .001). Results were consistent with HR above 1.00 after stratification on cancer subtypes (nonmuscle‐invasive and muscle‐invasive bladder cancer). We found evidence that adherence to a Western dietary pattern is associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer for men but not women., What's new? Does diet affect bladder‐cancer risk? Individual foods are rarely eaten in isolation, but little is known about the impact of overall dietary habits. In this large, prospective study, the authors found that greater adherence to a Western dietary pattern was associated with a significantly increased risk of bladder cancer in men. (Surprisingly, the same effect was not seen in women.) Further research is needed to identify the specific food types responsible and their mechanisms of bladder carcinogenesis. However, education to encourage changes in general dietary habits may provide a valuable public‐health benefit.

Background: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most lethal malignancies, with few known risk factors and biomarkers. Several blood protein biomarkers have been linked to PDAC in previous studies, but these studies have assessed only a limited number of biomarkers, usually in small samples. In this study, we evaluated associations of circulating protein levels and PDAC risk using genetic instruments. Methods: To identify novel circulating protein biomarkers of PDAC, we studied 8,280 cases and 6,728 controls of European descent from the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium and the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium, using genetic instruments of protein quantitative trait loci. Results: We observed associations between predicted concentrations of 38 proteins and PDAC risk at an FDR of < 0.05, including 23 of those proteins that showed an association even after Bonferroni correction. These include the protein encoded by ABO, which has been implicated as a potential target gene of PDAC risk variant. Eight of the identified proteins (LMA2L, TM11D, IP-10, ADH1B, STOM, TENC1, DOCK9, and CRBB2) were associated with PDAC risk after adjusting for previously reported PDAC risk variants (OR ranged from 0.79 to 1.52). Pathway enrichment analysis showed that the encoding genes for implicated proteins were significantly enriched in cancer-related pathways, such as STAT3 and IL15 production. Conclusions: We identified 38 candidates of protein biomarkers for PDAC risk. Impact: This study identifies novel protein biomarker candidates for PDAC, which if validated by additional studies, may contribute to the etiologic understanding of PDAC development.

So far, 23 germline susceptibility loci have been associated with multiple myeloma (MM) risk. It is unclear whether the genetic variation associated with MM susceptibility also predisposes to its precursor, monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Leveraging 2434 MM cases, 754 MGUS cases, and 2 independent sets of controls (2567/879), we investigated potential shared genetic susceptibility of MM and MGUS by (1) performing MM and MGUS genome-wide association studies (GWAS); (2) validating the association of a polygenic risk score (PRS) based on 23 established MM loci (MM-PRS) with risk of MM, and for the first time with MGUS; and (3) examining genetic correlation of MM and MGUS. Heritability and genetic estimates yielded 17% (standard error [SE] ±0.04) and 15% (SE ±0.11) for MM and MGUS risk, respectively, and a 55% (SE ±0.30) genetic correlation. The MM-PRS was associated with risk of MM when assessed continuously (odds ratio [OR], 1.17 per SD; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.21) or categorically (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.38-2.09 for highest; OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55-0.90 for lowest compared with middle quintile). The MM-PRS was similarly associated with MGUS (OR, 1.19 per SD; 95% CI, 1.14-1.26 as a continuous measure, OR, 1.77, 95%CI: 1.29-2.43 for highest and OR, 0.70, 95%CI: 0.50-0.98 for lowest compared with middle quintile). MM and MGUS associations did not differ by age, sex, or MM immunoglobulin isotype. We validated a 23-SNP MM-PRS in an independent series of MM cases and provide evidence for its association with MGUS. Our results suggest shared common genetic susceptibility to MM and MGUS.

Objective: To determine the clinical characteristics, outcomes and longitudinal trends of sepsis occurring in cancer patients. Method: Retrospective study using statewide Victorian Cancer Registry data linked to various administrative datasets. Results: Among 215,763 incident cancer patients, incidence of sepsis within one year of cancer diagnosis was estimated at 6.4%. The incidence of sepsis was higher in men, younger patients, patients diagnosed with haematological malignancies and those with de novo metastatic disease. Of the 13,316 patients with a first admission with sepsis, 55% had one or more organ failures, 29% required care within an intensive care unit and 13% required mechanical ventilation. Treatments associated with the highest sepsis incidence were stem cell/bone marrow transplant (33%), major surgery (4.4%), chemotherapy (1.1%) and radical radiotherapy (0.6%). The incidence of sepsis with organ failure increased between 2008 and 2015, while 90‐day mortality decreased. Conclusions: Sepsis in patients with cancer has high mortality and occurs most frequently in the first year after cancer diagnosis. Implications for public health: The number of cancer patients diagnosed with sepsis is expected to increase, causing a substantial burden on patients and the healthcare system.

Background: Tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption have been intensively studied in the general population to assess their effects on the risk of breast cancer, but very few studies have examined these effects in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Given the high breast cancer risk for mutation carriers and the importance of BRCA1 and BRCA2 in DNA repair, better evidence on the associations of these lifestyle factors with breast cancer risk is essential. Methods: Using a large international pooled cohort of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, we conducted retrospective (5,707 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 3,525 BRCA2 mutation carriers) and prospective (2,276 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 1,610 BRCA2 mutation carriers) analyses of alcohol and tobacco consumption using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: For both BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, none of the smoking-related variables was associated with breast cancer risk, except smoking for more than 5 years before a first full-term pregnancy (FFTP) when compared with parous women who never smoked. For BRCA1 mutation carriers, the HR from retrospective analysis (HRR) was 1.19 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02–1.39] and the HR from prospective analysis (HRP) was 1.36 (95% CI, 0.99–1.87). For BRCA2 mutation carriers, smoking for more than 5 years before an FFTP showed an association of a similar magnitude, but the confidence limits were wider (HRR = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01–1.55 and HRP = 1.30; 95% CI, 0.83–2.01). For both carrier groups, alcohol consumption was not associated with breast cancer risk. Conclusions: The finding that smoking during the prereproductive years increases breast cancer risk for mutation carriers warrants further investigation. Impact: This is the largest prospective study of BRCA mutation carriers to assess these important risk factors.

Background Inconsistent associations between milk and other dairy product consumption and bladder cancer (BC) have been reported. We aimed to investigate possible associations with BC risk for total and individual dairy products by bringing together the world's data on this topic. Methods Thirteen cohort studies, included in the BLadder cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) study, provided data for 3590 BC cases and 593,637 non-cases. Associations between milk and other dairy product consumption and BC risk were investigated using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses stratified by study center and adjusted for potential confounders. Results Overall, total 'other' dairy product consumption was not associated with BC risk (HR comparing highest with lowest tertile: 0.97 (95% CI: 0.87-1.07; p(trend) = 0.52) and likewise no association was observed for either liquid milk, processed milk, cream, cheese or icecream. However, an inverse association was observed between yoghurt consumption and BC risk when comparing those in the moderate (25-85 g/day) and high categories (>85 g/day) with non-consumers, with multivariate HR of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75-0.96) and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.78-0.98), respectively. Conclusions We found no evidence of association between either total or individual dairy products and BC risk, but suggestive evidence that consumption of yoghurt may be associated with a decreased risk.

Genome-wide analysis identifies 32 loci associated with breast cancer susceptibility, accounting for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status and tumor grade. Breast cancer susceptibility variants frequently show heterogeneity in associations by tumor subtype(1-3). To identify novel loci, we performed a genome-wide association study including 133,384 breast cancer cases and 113,789 controls, plus 18,908 BRCA1 mutation carriers (9,414 with breast cancer) of European ancestry, using both standard and novel methodologies that account for underlying tumor heterogeneity by estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status and tumor grade. We identified 32 novel susceptibility loci (P < 5.0 x 10(-8)), 15 of which showed evidence for associations with at least one tumor feature (false discovery rate < 0.05). Five loci showed associations (P < 0.05) in opposite directions between luminal and non-luminal subtypes. In silico analyses showed that these five loci contained cell-specific enhancers that differed between normal luminal and basal mammary cells. The genetic correlations between five intrinsic-like subtypes ranged from 0.35 to 0.80. The proportion of genome-wide chip heritability explained by all known susceptibility loci was 54.2% for luminal A-like disease and 37.6% for triple-negative disease. The odds ratios of polygenic risk scores, which included 330 variants, for the highest 1% of quantiles compared with middle quantiles were 5.63 and 3.02 for luminal A-like and triple-negative disease, respectively. These findings provide an improved understanding of genetic predisposition to breast cancer subtypes and will inform the development of subtype-specific polygenic risk scores.

Funder: Funding details are provided in the Supplementary Material, Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) have the potential to improve risk stratification. Joint estimation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) effects in models could improve predictive performance over standard approaches of PRS construction. Here, we implemented computationally-efficient, penalized, logistic regression models (lasso, elastic net, stepwise) to individual level genotype data and a Bayesian framework with continuous shrinkage, ���select and shrink for summary statistics��� (S4), to summary level data for epithelial non-mucinous ovarian cancer risk prediction. We developed the models in a dataset consisting of 23,564 non-mucinous EOC cases and 40,138 controls participating in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) and validated the best models in three populations of different ancestries: prospective data from 198,101 women of European ancestry; 7,669 women of East Asian ancestry; 1,072 women of African ancestry, and in 18,915 BRCA1 and 12,337 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers of European ancestry. In the external validation data, the model with the strongest association for non-mucinous EOC risk derived from the OCAC model development data was the S4 model (27,240 SNPs) with odds ratios (OR) of 1.38(95%CI:1.28���1.48,AUC:0.588) per unit standard deviation, in women of European ancestry; 1.14(95%CI:1.08���1.19,AUC:0.538) in women of East Asian ancestry; 1.38(95%CI:1.21-1.58,AUC:0.593) in women of African ancestry; hazard ratios of 1.37(95%CI:1.30���1.44,AUC:0.592) in BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers and 1.51(95%CI:1.36-1.67,AUC:0.624) in BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. Incorporation of the S4 PRS in risk prediction models for ovarian cancer may have clinical utility in ovarian cancer prevention programs.

We undertook a systematic review and appraised the evidence for an effect of circulating sex steroid hormones and sex hormone–binding globulin (SHBG) on breast cancer risk in pre- and postmenopausal women. Systematic searches identified prospective studies relevant to this review. Meta-analyses estimated breast cancer risk for women with the highest compared with the lowest level of sex hormones, and the DRMETA Stata package was used to graphically represent the shape of these associations. The ROBINS-E tool assessed risk of bias, and the GRADE system appraised the strength of evidence. In premenopausal women, there was little evidence that estrogens, progesterone, or SHBG were associated with breast cancer risk, whereas androgens showed a positive association. In postmenopausal women, higher estrogens and androgens were associated with an increase in breast cancer risk, whereas higher SHBG was inversely associated with risk. The strength of the evidence quality ranged from low to high for each hormone. Dose–response relationships between sex steroid hormone concentrations and breast cancer risk were most notable for postmenopausal women. These data support the plausibility of a role for sex steroid hormones in mediating the causal relationship between physical activity and the risk of breast cancer. See related reviews by Lynch et al., p. 11 and Swain et al., p. 16

Epidemiologic research suggests that physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer, but the causal nature of this link is not clear. Investigating mechanistic pathways can provide evidence of biological plausibility and improve causal inference. This project will examine three putative pathways (sex steroid hormones, insulin signaling, and inflammation) in a series of two-stage systematic reviews. Stage 1 used Text Mining for Mechanism Prioritisation (TeMMPo) to identify and prioritize relevant biological intermediates. Stage 2 will systematically review the findings from studies of (i) physical activity and intermediates and (ii) intermediates and breast cancer. Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, and SPORTDiscus will be searched using a combination of subject headings and free-text terms. Human intervention and prospective, observational studies will be eligible for inclusion. Meta-analysis will be performed where possible. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration tool, or the ROBINS-I or ROBINS-E tool, depending on study type. Strength of evidence will be assessed using the GRADE system. In addition to synthesizing the mechanistic evidence that links physical activity with breast cancer risk, this project may also identify priority areas for future research and help inform the design and implementation of physical activity interventions. See related reviews by Swain et al., p. 16 and Drummond et al., p. 28

The effect of physical activity on breast cancer risk may be partly mediated by sex steroid hormones. This review synthesized and appraised the evidence for an effect of physical activity on sex steroid hormones. Systematic searches were performed using MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), and SPORTDiscus to identify experimental studies and prospective cohort studies that examined physical activity and estrogens, progestins, and/or androgens, as well as sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) and glucocorticoids in pre- and postmenopausal women. Meta-analyses were performed to generate effect estimates. Risk of bias was assessed, and the GRADE system was used to appraise quality of the evidence. Twenty-eight randomized controlled trials (RCT), 81 nonrandomized interventions, and six observational studies were included. Estrogens, progesterone, and androgens mostly decreased, and SHBG increased, in response to physical activity. Effect sizes were small, and evidence quality was graded moderate or high for each outcome. Reductions in select sex steroid hormones following exercise supports the biological plausibility of the first part of the physical activity–sex hormone–breast cancer pathway. The confirmed effect of physical activity on decreasing circulating sex steroid hormones supports its causal role in preventing breast cancer. See related reviews by Lynch et al., p. 11 and Drummond et al., p. 28

Prospective validation of risk models is needed to assess their clinical utility, particularly over the longer term. We evaluated the performance of six commonly used breast cancer risk models (IBIS, BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, BRCAPRO-BCRAT, BCRAT, and iCARE-lit). 15-year risk scores were estimated using lifestyle factors and family history measures from 7608 women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who were aged 50-65 years and unaffected at commencement of follow-up two (conducted in 2003-2007), of whom 351 subsequently developed breast cancer. Risk discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic and calibration using the expected/observed number of incident cases across the spectrum of risk by age group (50-54, 55-59, 60-65 years) and family history of breast cancer. C-statistics were higher for BOADICEA (0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.62) and IBIS (0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.61) than the other models (p-difference ��� 0.04). No model except BOADICEA calibrated well across the spectrum of 15-year risk (p-value < 0.03). The performance of BOADICEA and IBIS was similar across age groups and for women with or without a family history. For middle-aged Australian women, BOADICEA and IBIS had the highest discriminatory accuracy of the six risk models, but apart from BOADICEA, no model was well-calibrated across the risk spectrum., This work was primarily supported by grant 1129136 from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (https://www.nhmrc.gov.au/). MCCS cohort recruitment was funded by Cancer Council Victoria (https://www.cancervic.org.au/) and VicHealth (https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/). The MCCS was further supported by Australian NHMRC grants 209057, 396414 and 1074383, and ongoing follow-up and data management has been funded by Cancer Council Victoria since 1995. Cases and their vital status were ascertained through the Victorian Cancer Registry and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, including the National Death Index and the Australian Cancer Database.TN-D is a recipient of a Career Development Fellowship from the National Breast Cancer Foundation (Australia). JLH and MCS are Senior Principal and Senior Research Fellows of the National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), respectively. ACA and AJL are supported by grants from Cancer Research UK (C12292/A20861 and PPRPGM19 Nov20\100002).

BACKGROUNDProtein truncating variants in ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2 and PALB2 are associated with increased breast cancer risk, but risks associated with missense variants in these genes are uncertain.METHODSCombining 59,639 breast cancer cases and 53,165 controls, we sampled training (80%) and validation (20%) sets to analyze rare missense variants in ATM (1,146 training variants), BRCA1 (644), BRCA2 (1,425), CHEK2 (325) and PALB2 (472). We evaluated breast cancer risks according to five in-silico prediction-of-deleteriousness algorithms, functional protein domain, and frequency, using logistic regression models and also mixture models in which a subset of variants was assumed to be risk-associated.RESULTSThe most predictive in-silico algorithms were Helix (BRCA1, BRCA2 and CHEK2) and CADD (ATM). Increased risks appeared restricted to functional protein domains for ATM (FAT and PIK domains) and BRCA1 (RING and BRCT domains). For ATM, BRCA1 and BRCA2, data were compatible with small subsets (approximately 7%, 2% and 0.6%, respectively) of rare missense variants giving similar risk to those of protein truncating variants in the same gene. For CHEK2, data were more consistent with a large fraction (approximately 60%) of rare missense variants giving a lower risk (OR 1.75, 95% CI (1.47-2.08)) than CHEK2 protein truncating variants. There was little evidence for an association with risk for missense variants in PALB2. The best fitting models were well calibrated in the validation set.CONCLUSIONSThese results will inform risk prediction models and the selection of candidate variants for functional assays, and could contribute to the clinical reporting of gene panel testing for breast cancer susceptibility.

Background Helicobacter pylori (H.pylori) infection causes atrophic gastritis and gastric cancer. Ironically, decreased gastric acid production in those with atrophic gastritis might reduce harmful gastroesophageal refluxate, thereby reducing gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and Barrett’s oesophagus (BE) risk. Methods In two nested case-control studies with 425 GERD and 169 BE cases, we compared sex-specific GERD and BE risk in H.pylori seronegative participants with seropositive participants. Where seronegativity was associated with increased BE risk, we quantified the effect mediated by GERD using a Monte Carlo simulation-based g-computation approach to estimate interventional effects. Moreover, we classified participants into gastritis types using serum pepsinogen-I and gastrin-17 data. Results For men, H.pylori seronegativity was associated with 1.69-fold (CI:1.03-2.75) and 2.14-fold (CI:1.18-3.88) higher odds for GERD and BE respectively. Five (33%) out of the 15 per 1000 excess BE risk from being seronegative was mediated by GERD. No association was observed for women. Among those seropositive, the proportion with atrophic antral gastritis was higher for men than for women (68% vs 56%; p = 0.015). Conclusions H.pylori seronegativity was associated with increased GERD and BE risk for men but not women, which could be partly explained by the higher proportion of H.pylori-associated atrophic antral gastritis in men. Evidence of GERD mediating seronegativity’s effect on BE supports this explanation. Key messages Whilst H.pylori infection might reduce GERD and BE risk, this is potentially a by-product of atrophic gastritis, a risk factor for gastric cancer. Treating GERD could partly reduce the excess BE risk for seronegative individuals.

Background Greater physical activity (PA) and less sitting time (ST) have been associated with lower breast cancer (BC) risk in observational studies, but causality is undetermined. Mendelian randomization (MR) investigates causality by using genotype to simulate randomized trials within observational data. A recent summary-data MR study assessed PA and BC by estrogen-receptor (ER) status. We aimed to examine PA and ST in relation to invasive BC risk overall and by molecular subtype. Methods We performed two-sample MR using individual-level Breast Cancer Association Consortium data from 125,684 women (69,869 cases), and summary-level UK Biobank genetic data for the exposure (n = 91,105). We used imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated (p Results Greater PA was associated with lower risk of BC (OR = 0.48;95%CI=0.30-0.78 per standard deviation [SD] in activity). Estimates were inverse for all subtypes, particularly ER + (OR=0.45; 95%CI=0.25-0.83), PR + (OR=0.43;95%CI=0.22-0.85), and HER2 + (OR = 0.48; 95%CI=0.26-0.89). Greater ST was associated with higher risk of hormone-receptor-negative tumours, particularly triple-negative (ER-/PR-/HER2-) (OR = 2.04; 95%CI=1.06-3.93 per SD in ST). Estimates overall and for most other subtypes were elevated but had wide CIs crossing null. Sensitivity analyses (weighted-median MR and MR-Egger) did not suggest strong pleiotropic effects for either exposure. Conclusions Greater PA and lower ST reduces risk of all breast cancers, and hormone-receptor negative tumours, respectively. More widespread adoption of active lifestyles will lower burden from the most common cancer in women. Key messages More active and less sedentary lifestyles reduce risk of breast cancer.

Background Alcohol consumption is causally linked to several cancer sites but the evidence for stomach cancer is still inconclusive. We aimed to quantify the association between alcohol intake and risk of stomach cancer, including subtypes. Methods We pooled data from two cohort studies including 452,958 individuals enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in 1992-98 and 38,756 Australians enrolled in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study in 1990-94. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident stomach cancer were estimated using Cox regression. Results 1,225 incident stomach cancers were diagnosed over 7,094,637 person-years. Alcohol intake was not associated with overall stomach cancer risk. We observed a weak positive dose-response association for lifetime intake with non-cardia stomach cancer (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.06/per 10 g/day increment), which is the more common type (77.6% of cases), and a weak inverse association with cardia cancer (HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.87-1.00) (phomogeneity=0.006). These associations did not differ appreciably by smoking or Helicobacter pylori infection status. Differences in HRs between diffuse-type and intestinal-type cancer were minimal (phomogeneity=0.97). HRs of 1.50 (95% CI: 1.12-2.01) for non-cardia and 0.53 (95% CI: 0.27-1.02) for cardia cancer were observed for a life course trajectory characterised by sustained heavy drinking compared with light drinking (phomogeneity=0.01). Conclusions Lifetime alcohol intake was associated with increased risk of non-cardia stomach cancer. The inverse association for cardia cancer indicates aetiologic differences between subsites. Key messages Limiting long-term alcohol consumption, and avoiding heavy use in particular, might be beneficial in preventing non-cardia stomach cancer.

Background Although responsible for significant mortality and morbidity, our knowledge of modifiable causes of multiple myeloma (MM) remains limited. This analysis of an Australian population-based case-control family study investigated associations between smoking and alcohol consumption and MM risk. Methods Incident cases (n = 789) of MM were recruited mainly via cancer registries in Victoria and NSW. The controls included in the analysis (n = 1,113) were either family members of cases (n = 696) or recruited as part of a similarly designed case-control family study of renal cancer (n = 417). Unconditional multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate ORs, 95% CIs and p-values for associations between alcohol- and tobacco-related exposures and risk of MM. Results Heavy drinkers of alcohol had lower MM risk compared with non-drinkers (OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.50 – 0.93), and there was an inverse dose-response relationship for alcohol intake (OR per 10g ethanol per day = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86 – 0.99); there was no evidence of interaction with sex (p = 0.27). There was no evidence of association between smoking-related exposures and MM risk. Conclusions These findings extend the knowledge of MM risk factor epidemiology. Further research into the causality of the association of alcohol with MM risk and potential underlying mechanisms is recommended. Key messages We found alcohol consumption to be inversely associated with risk of multiple myeloma.

Background To improve melanoma early detection, tools to predict personal risk based on genetic information (polygenic risk scores, PRS) have been developed, but require external validation. Methods We analysed invasive melanoma incidence in UK Biobank (UKB; n = 395,647; 1,651 cases) and the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS, Australia; n = 4,765; 303 cases). Three PRS were evaluated: 68 genetic variants (SNPs) at 54 loci from a 2020 meta-analysis (PRS68); 50 SNPs significant in the 2020 meta-analysis excluding UKB (PRS50); 45 SNPs at 21 loci known pre-2020 (PRS45). 10-year melanoma risks were calculated from population-level cancer registry data by age group and sex, with and without PRS adjustment. Results All PRS were strongly associated with melanoma incidence, including after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, and ease of tanning. Predicted absolute melanoma risks based on age and sex alone underestimated melanoma incidence in UKB (ratio expected/observed cases E/O=0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.62-0.68) and MCCS (E/O=0.65, 0.57-0.73). For UKB, this was reduced by PRS-adjustment, e.g. PRS50-adjusted risks E/O=0.91 (0.87-0.95). Discriminative ability for PRS68- and PRS50-adjusted absolute risks was higher than for risks based on age and sex alone (deltaAUC 0.07-0.1, p Conclusions A PRS derived from a larger, more diverse meta-analysis improves melanoma risk prediction compared to an earlier PRS. Re-calibration of absolute risks may be necessary for application to specific populations. Key messages A genetic score can improve prediction of melanoma risk and might help tailor melanoma prevention and early detection strategies to different risk levels.

Focus of Presentation Participant recruitment through registries can provide population-based samples, but there are methodological challenges. We examine challenges and solutions in two studies recruiting participants through the Victorian Cancer Registry. Cross-sectional surveys of patients with colorectal, lung or ovarian cancer conducted in 2013-14 (study 1) and repeated in an ongoing study (study 2). The registry managed fast-track recruitment of eligible patients ( > =40yrs, confirmed diagnosis, approached within 6-months of diagnosis) Findings In study 1, registry rules for confirmed diagnosis required surgical histopathology. For cancers primarily treated non-surgically (e.g. lung), selection bias was common. In study 2, confirmation rules were extended to include biopsies with subsequent hospital notification. The registry does not receive imaging notifications and pathology labs/hospital reports can be delayed (>60days). Study eligibility criteria meant cases with advanced disease, common in lung cancer, or without a confirmed diagnosis within the study timeframe were excluded. However, colorectal and ovarian cases in study 1 were largely representative of the eligible population. In study 2, a different fast-track recruitment approach meant a longer time from diagnosis to response compared to study 1 (median 7 vs 5 months). Recruitment procedures are being improved through engagement between researchers and registry. Conclusions/Implications Local registry-based rules for recruitment and available data, study eligibility criteria and cancer type (particularly cancers without histopathological confirmation), may introduce bias. Researchers need to work closely with registry colleagues to understand and optimise recruitment. Key messages Registry-based recruitment can be biased. Early and ongoing communication between researchers and registry is strongly recommended.

Contains fulltext : 237895.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers has been shown to decrease with longer duration of oral contraceptive use. Although the effects of using oral contraceptives in the general population are well established (approximately 50% risk reduction in ovarian cancer), the estimated risk reduction in mutation carriers is much less precise because of potential bias and small sample sizes. In addition, only a few studies on oral contraceptive use have examined the associations of duration of use, time since last use, starting age, and calendar year of start with risk of ovarian cancer. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate in more detail the associations of various characteristics of oral contraceptive use and risk of ovarian cancer, to provide healthcare providers and carriers with better risk estimates. STUDY DESIGN: In this international retrospective study, ovarian cancer risk associations were assessed using oral contraceptives data on 3989 BRCA1 and 2445 BRCA2 mutation carriers. Age-dependent-weighted Cox regression analyses were stratified by study and birth cohort and included breast cancer diagnosis as a covariate. To minimize survival bias, analyses were left truncated at 5 years before baseline questionnaire. Separate analyses were conducted for each aspect of oral contraceptive use and in a multivariate analysis, including all these aspects. In addition, the analysis of duration of oral contraceptive use was stratified by recency of use. RESULTS: Oral contraceptives were less often used by mutation carriers who were diagnosed with ovarian cancer (ever use: 58.6% for BRCA1 and 53.5% BRCA2) than by unaffected carriers (ever use: 88.9% for BRCA1 and 80.7% for BRCA2). The median duration of use was 7 years for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers who developed ovarian cancer and 9 and 8 years for unaffected BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers with ovarian cancer, respectively. For BRCA1 mutation carriers, univariate analyses have shown that both a longer duration of oral contraceptive use and more recent oral contraceptive use were associated with a reduction in the risk of ovarian cancer. However, in multivariate analyses, including duration of use, age at first use, and time since last use, duration of oral contraceptive use proved to be the prominent protective factor (compared with 10 years [hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.73]; P(trend)=.008). The inverse association between duration of use and ovarian cancer risk persisted for more than 15 years (duration of ≥10 years; BRCA1 15 years since last use [hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-0.59]). Univariate results for BRCA2 mutation carriers were similar but were inconclusive because of limited sample size. CONCLUSION: For BRCA1 mutation carriers, longer duration of oral contraceptive use is associated with a greater reduction in ovarian cancer risk, and the protection is long term.

The effect of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) on breast cancer risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers is uncertain. Retrospective analyses have suggested a protective effect but may be substantially biased. Prospective studies have had limited power, particularly for BRCA2 mutation carriers. Further, previous studies have not considered the effect of RRSO in the context of natural menopause.A multi-centre prospective cohort of 2272 BRCA1 and 1605 BRCA2 mutation carriers was followed for a mean of 5.4 and 4.9 years, respectively; 426 women developed incident breast cancer. RRSO was modelled as a time-dependent covariate in Cox regression, and its effect assessed in premenopausal and postmenopausal women.There was no association between RRSO and breast cancer for BRCA1 (HR = 1.23; 95% CI 0.94-1.61) or BRCA2 (HR = 0.88; 95% CI 0.62-1.24) mutation carriers. For BRCA2 mutation carriers, HRs were 0.68 (95% CI 0.40-1.15) and 1.07 (95% CI 0.69-1.64) for RRSO carried out before or after age 45 years, respectively. The HR for BRCA2 mutation carriers decreased with increasing time since RRSO (HR = 0.51; 95% CI 0.26-0.99 for 5 years or longer after RRSO). Estimates for premenopausal women were similar.We found no evidence that RRSO reduces breast cancer risk for BRCA1 mutation carriers. A potentially beneficial effect for BRCA2 mutation carriers was observed, particularly after 5 years following RRSO. These results may inform counselling and management of carriers with respect to RRSO.

Background Conventional epidemiologic studies have evaluated associations between circulating lipid levels and breast cancer risk, but results have been inconsistent. As Mendelian randomization analyses may provide evidence for causal inference, we sought to evaluate potentially unbiased associations between breast cancer risk and four genetically predicted lipid traits. Methods Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 164 discrete variants associated with high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides and total cholesterol. We used 162 of these unique variants to construct weighted genetic scores (wGSs) for a total of 101 424 breast cancer cases and 80 253 controls of European ancestry from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between per standard deviation increase in genetically predicted lipid traits and breast cancer risk. Additional Mendelian randomization analysis approaches and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess pleiotropy and instrument validity. Results Corresponding to approximately 15 mg/dL, one standard deviation increase in genetically predicted HDL-C was associated with a 12% increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.08–1.16). Findings were consistent after adjustment for breast cancer risk factors and were robust in several sensitivity analyses. Associations with genetically predicted triglycerides and total cholesterol were inconsistent, and no association for genetically predicted LDL-C was observed. Conclusions This study provides strong evidence that circulating HDL-C may be associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, whereas LDL-C may not be related to breast cancer risk.

Background Excess body weight is an established cause of postmenopausal breast cancer, but it is unknown if weight loss reduces risk. Methods Associations between weight change and risk of breast cancer were examined among women aged 50 years and older in the Pooling Project of Prospective Studies of Diet and Cancer. In 10 cohorts, weight assessed on three surveys was used to examine weight change patterns over approximately 10 years (interval 1 median = 5.2 years; interval 2 median = 4.0 years). Sustained weight loss was defined as no less than 2 kg lost in interval 1 that was not regained in interval 2. Among 180 885 women, 6930 invasive breast cancers were identified during follow-up. Results Compared with women with stable weight (±2 kg), women with sustained weight loss had a lower risk of breast cancer. This risk reduction was linear and specific to women not using postmenopausal hormones (>2–4.5 kg lost: hazard ratio [HR] = 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70 to 0.96; >4.5– Conclusions These results suggest that sustained weight loss, even modest amounts, is associated with lower breast cancer risk for women aged 50 years and older. Breast cancer prevention may be a strong weight-loss motivator for the two-thirds of American women who are overweight or obese.

Men with prostate cancer experience side effects for which a supportive social environment may be beneficial. We examined the association between four measures of social connectedness and mortality after a prostate cancer diagnosis. Male participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study in 1990-1994, who developed incident prostate cancer and attended follow-up in 2003-2007, were eligible for the study. Information on social connectedness, collected at follow-up, included (i) living arrangement; (ii) frequency of visits to friends/relatives and (iii) from friends/relatives; (iv) weekly hours of social activities. A total of 1,421 prostate cancer cases was observed (338 all-cause deaths, 113 from prostate cancer), including 867 after follow-up (150 all-cause deaths, 55 from prostate cancer) and 554 before follow-up (188 all-cause deaths, 58 from prostate cancer). Cox models stratified by tumour Gleason score and stage, and sequentially adjusted for socioeconomic, health- and lifestyle-related confounders, were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the association between social connectedness and all-cause mortality after prostate cancer. Men who reported living alone before diagnosis had higher overall mortality (HR = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.0-2.5), after adjustment for socioeconomic, health and lifestyle confounders. Lower mortality was observed for men with more social activities (p-trend = 0.07), but not in comprehensively adjusted models. Consistent with these findings, men living alone after prostate cancer diagnosis had higher mortality (HR = 1.3, 95% CI: 0.9-1.9). Lower mortality was observed with increasing socializing hours in the age-adjusted model (p-trend = 0.06) but not after more comprehensive adjustment. Our findings suggest that living with someone, but not other aspects of social connectedness, may be associated with decreased mortality for men with prostate cancer.

PURPOSE To determine whether recommended amounts of leisure-time physical activity (ie, 7.5-15 metabolic equivalent task [MET] hours/week) are associated with lower cancer risk, describe the shape of the dose-response relationship, and explore associations with moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity. METHODS Data from 9 prospective cohorts with self-reported leisure-time physical activity and follow-up for cancer incidence were pooled. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of the relationships between physical activity with incidence of 15 types of cancer. Dose-response relationships were modeled with restricted cubic spline functions that compared 7.5, 15.0, 22.5, and 30.0 MET hours/week to no leisure-time physical activity, and statistically significant associations were determined using tests for trend ( P < .05) and 95% CIs (< 1.0). RESULTS A total of 755,459 participants (median age, 62 years [range, 32-91 years]; 53% female) were followed for 10.1 years, and 50,620 incident cancers accrued. Engagement in recommended amounts of activity (7.5-15 MET hours/week) was associated with a statistically significant lower risk of 7 of the 15 cancer types studied, including colon (8%-14% lower risk in men), breast (6%-10% lower risk), endometrial (10%-18% lower risk), kidney (11%-17% lower risk), myeloma (14%-19% lower risk), liver (18%-27% lower risk), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (11%-18% lower risk in women). The dose response was linear in shape for half of the associations and nonlinear for the others. Results for moderate- and vigorous-intensity leisure-time physical activity were mixed. Adjustment for body mass index eliminated the association with endometrial cancer but had limited effect on other cancer types. CONCLUSION Health care providers, fitness professionals, and public health practitioners should encourage adults to adopt and maintain physical activity at recommended levels to lower risks of multiple cancers.

Interval breast cancers (those diagnosed between recommended mammography screens) generally have poorer outcomes and are more common among women with dense breasts. We aimed to develop a risk model for interval breast cancer. We conducted a nested case–control study within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study involving 168 interval breast cancer patients and 498 matched control subjects. We measured breast density using the CUMULUS software. We recorded first‐degree family history by questionnaire, measured body mass index (BMI) and calculated age‐adjusted breast tissue aging, a novel measure of exposure to estrogen and progesterone based on the Pike model. We fitted conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratio (OR) or odds ratio per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) and calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The stronger risk associations were for unadjusted percent breast density (OPERA = 1.99; AUC = 0.66), more so after adjusting for age and BMI (OPERA = 2.26; AUC = 0.70), and for family history (OR = 2.70; AUC = 0.56). When the latter two factors and their multiplicative interactions with age‐adjusted breast tissue aging (p = 0.01 and 0.02, respectively) were fitted, the AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.69–0.77), equivalent to a ninefold interquartile risk ratio. In summary, compared with using dense breasts alone, risk discrimination for interval breast cancers could be doubled by instead using breast density, BMI, family history and hormonal exposure. This would also give women with dense breasts, and their physicians, more information about the major consequence of having dense breasts—an increased risk of developing an interval breast cancer., What's new? Breast cancers that are detected between regular screening intervals are more aggressive and have poorer outcomes than screen‐detected tumors but no valid risk model exists to predict “interval” breast cancers. Here the authors combined breast density with other breast cancer risk factors such as body mass index, family history and a novel measure of age‐adjusted hormonal exposure. Applying this to more than 150 women with interval breast cancer, they find that risk discrimination can be doubled with the combination of factors as compared with just using breast density alone, thus improving risk predictions and clinical recommendations for breast screening procedures.

Background Self-reported physical activity is inaccurate, yet few investigators attempt to adjust for measurement error when estimating risks for health outcomes. We estimated what the association between self-reported physical activity and colorectal cancer risk would be if physical activity had been assessed using accelerometry instead. Methods We conducted a validation study in which 235 Australian adults completed a telephone-administered International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), and wore an accelerometer (Actigraph GT3X+) for 7 days. Using accelerometer-assessed physical activity as the criterion measure, we calculated validity coefficients and attenuation factors using a structural equation model adjusted for age, sex, education and body mass index. We then used a regression calibration approach to apply the attenuation factors to data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) to compute bias-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Average daily minutes of physical activity from the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ-short) were substantially higher than accelerometer-measured duration (55 versus 32 min). The validity coefficient (0.32; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.43) and attenuation factor (0.20; 95% CI: 0.12, 0.28) were low. The HRs for colorectal cancer risk for high (75th percentile; 411 min/week) versus low (25th percentile; 62 min/week) levels of self-reported physical activity were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.87, 1.05) before and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.47, 1.28) after bias adjustment. Conclusions Over-estimation of physical activity by the IPAQ-short substantially attenuates the association between physical activity and colorectal cancer risk, suggesting that the protective effect of physical activity has been previously underestimated.

To evaluate the adoption of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists Choosing Wisely (CW) radiation oncology recommendations before and after the release of the recommendations.The Victorian Radiotherapy Minimum Data Set captures details of radiation therapy delivered in the state of Victoria, Australia. This study included the following 3 groups of patients relevant to 3 of the 5 CW recommendations: women who received a diagnosis of early-stage breast cancer at age ≥50 years who had breast radiation therapy (excluding nodal irradiation), patients with cancer who had palliative bone radiation therapy (excluding those with primary bone malignancies), and patients with cancer who had stereotactic radiation therapy to the brain (excluding those with primary malignancies of the central nervous system). The outcomes of interest were use of hypofractionated breast radiation therapy (25 fractions), use of long-course palliative bone radiation therapy (10 fractions), and use of adjuvant whole brain radiation therapy within 1 month of stereotactic radiation therapy. The Cochrane-Armitage test was used to evaluate changes in practice over time.Among the 8204 patients who had breast radiation therapy, there was an increase in hypofractionation use from 42% in 2013 to 82% in 2017 (P .001). The progressive increase in hypofractionation use was observed across institutions. Of the 15,634 courses of palliative bone radiation therapy delivered, only 1279 (8%) were10 fractions, and this decreased from 10% in 2013 to 5% in 2017 (P .001). Of the 1049 patients who received stereotactic radiation therapy for brain metastases, only 2% had adjuvant whole brain radiation therapy, and this decreased from 4% in 2013 to 0.7% in 2017 (P = .02).There was a significant change in radiation oncology practice in Australia between 2013 and 2017, in line with the CW recommendations. However, some of the recommendations need to be revised to reflect the rapidly evolving evidence in radiation oncology.

Biliary tract cancers are rare but highly fatal with poorly understood etiology. Identifying potentially modifiable risk factors for these cancers is essential for prevention. Here we estimated the relationship between adiposity and cancer across the biliary tract, including cancers of the gallbladder (GBC), intrahepatic bile ducts (IHBDC), extrahepatic bile ducts (EHBDC), and the ampulla of Vater (AVC). We pooled data from 27 prospective cohorts with over 2.7 million adults. Adiposity was measured using baseline body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, hip circumference, waist-to-hip, and waist-to-height ratios. HRs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for sex, education, race, smoking, and alcohol consumption with age as the time metric and the baseline hazard stratified by study. During 37,883,648 person-years of follow-up, 1,343 GBC cases, 1,194 EHBDC cases, 784 IHBDC cases, and 623 AVC cases occurred. For each 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI, there were risk increases for GBC (HR = 1.27; 95% CI, 1.19–1.36), IHBDC (HR = 1.32; 95% CI, 1.21–1.45), and EHBDC (HR = 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03–1.23), but not AVC (HR = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.88–1.11). Increasing waist circumference, hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, and waist-to-height ratio were associated with GBC and IHBDC but not EHBDC or AVC. These results indicate that adult adiposity is associated with an increased risk of biliary tract cancer, particularly GBC and IHBDC. Moreover, they provide evidence for recommending weight maintenance programs to reduce the risk of developing these cancers. Significance: These findings identify a correlation between adiposity and biliary tract cancers, indicating that weight management programs may help minimize the risk of these diseases.

Background Environmental and genetic factors play an important role in the etiology of breast cancer. Several small blood-based DNA methylation studies have reported risk associations with methylation at individual CpGs and average methylation levels; however, these findings require validation in larger prospective cohort studies. To investigate the role of blood DNA methylation on breast cancer risk, we conducted a meta-analysis of four prospective cohort studies, including a total of 1663 incident cases and 1885 controls, the largest study of blood DNA methylation and breast cancer risk to date. Methods We assessed associations with methylation at 365,145 CpGs present in the HumanMethylation450 (HM450K) Beadchip, after excluding CpGs that did not pass quality controls in all studies. Each of the four cohorts estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between each individual CpG and breast cancer risk. In addition, each study assessed the association between average methylation measures and breast cancer risk, adjusted and unadjusted for cell-type composition. Study-specific ORs were combined using fixed-effect meta-analysis with inverse variance weights. Stratified analyses were conducted by age at diagnosis ( 10 years). The false discovery rate (q value) was used to account for multiple testing. Results The average age at blood draw ranged from 52.2 to 62.2 years across the four cohorts. Median follow-up time ranged from 6.6 to 8.4 years. The methylation measured at individual CpGs was not associated with breast cancer risk (q value > 0.59). In addition, higher average methylation level was not associated with risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.85, 1.05; P = 0.26; P for study heterogeneity = 0.86). We found no evidence of modification of this association by age at diagnosis (P = 0.17), ER status (P = 0.88), time since blood collection (P = 0.98), or CpG location (P = 0.98). Conclusions Our data indicate that DNA methylation measured in the blood prior to breast cancer diagnosis in predominantly postmenopausal women is unlikely to be associated with substantial breast cancer risk on the HM450K array. Larger studies or with greater methylation coverage are needed to determine if associations exist between blood DNA methylation and breast cancer risk.

There has been evidence of an association between patient outcomes and the number of surgeries performed at a hospital. To our knowledge, there are no Australian data on hospital cancer surgery volumes and patient outcomes. We evaluated the relationship between hospital non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) surgery volume and patient outcomes in Victoria.Patients with a primary diagnosis of NSCLC between 2008 and 2014 were identified in the Victorian Cancer Registry (n = 15,369), 3,420 (22%) of whom had lung cancer surgery. Primary outcome was death within 90 days of surgery and secondary outcomes included overall survival, use of postoperative ventilation and ≥24hours spent in ICU. Hospital volume was measured as the average number of lung surgeries performed per year, with quartiles Q1: 1-17, Q2: 18-34, Q3: 35-58 and Q4: 59 + .57% (1,941/3,420) lung cancer patients underwent lobectomy, 38% (1,299/3,420) sub-lobar resection and 5% (180/3,420) pneumonectomy. The overall 90-day mortality after lung surgery was 3.5%, and was 2.6% and 4.5% for patients undergoing lobectomy and sub-lobar resection respectively. There was no difference in 90-day mortality and overall survival between low- and high-volume centres regardless of procedure. Patients operated on in lower volume centres had more admissions to ICU ≥24hours (Q1. 55% vs. Q4. 11%, p-trend0.001). A higher proportion of patients attending private hospitals (19%) had an ASA score of 4 compared with patients attending a public hospital (9%).We observed no evidence of survival differences between lung cancer patients attending low- and high-volume hospitals for cancer surgery. A higher proportion of patients had an ICU admission ≥24hours in lower volume centres and there are a higher proportion of patients with an ASA score of 4 in private hospitals compared to public hospitals.

Benign breast disease (BBD) is an established breast cancer (BC) risk factor, but it is unclear whether the magnitude of the association applies to women at familial or genetic risk. This information is needed to improve BC risk assessment in clinical settings. Using the Prospective Family Study Cohort, we used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of BBD with BC risk. We also examined whether the association with BBD differed by underlying familial risk profile (FRP), calculated using absolute risk estimates from the Breast Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) model. During 176,756 person-years of follow-up (median: 10.9 years, maximum: 23.7) of 17,154 women unaffected with BC at baseline, we observed 968 incident cases of BC. A total of 4,704 (27%) women reported a history of BBD diagnosis at baseline. A history of BBD was associated with a greater risk of BC: HR = 1.31 (95% CI: 1.14–1.50), and did not differ by underlying FRP, with HRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.11–1.65), 1.26 (95% CI:1.00–1.60), and 1.40 (95% CI: 1.01–1.93), for categories of full-lifetime BOADICEA score

Age- and body mass index (BMI)-adjusted mammographic density is one of the strongest breast cancer risk factors. DNA methylation is a molecular mechanism that could underlie inter-individual variation in mammographic density. We aimed to investigate the association between breast cancer risk-predicting mammographic density measures and blood DNA methylation. For 436 women from the Australian Mammographic Density Twins and Sisters Study and 591 women from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, mammographic density (dense area, nondense area and percentage dense area) defined by the conventional brightness threshold was measured using the CUMULUS software, and peripheral blood DNA methylation was measured using the HumanMethylation450 (HM450) BeadChip assay. Associations between DNA methylation at >400,000 sites and mammographic density measures adjusted for age and BMI were assessed within each cohort and pooled using fixed-effect meta-analysis. Associations with methylation at genetic loci known to be associated with mammographic density were also examined. We found no genome-wide significant (p 0.05/299 = 1.7 × 10-4 ). In summary, our study did not find evidence for associations between blood DNA methylation, as measured by the HM450 assay, and conventional mammographic density measures that predict breast cancer risk.

Observational studies suggest that higher birth weight (BW) is associated with increased risk of breast cancer in adult life. We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to assess whether this association is causal. Sixty independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) known to be associated at P