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Objective: To determine the test‐retest repeatability of a self‐completed survey with items capturing skin cancer risk factors. Methods: We invited 238 randomly selected participants of the QSkin II cohort to complete the baseline survey a second time. Responses were compared using kappa statistics and intraclass correlation coefficients to quantify agreement for categorical and continuous variables, respectively. We compared the performance of key items with that observed in an earlier repeatability study using the same survey instrument in an independent cohort. Results: Measures of phenotypic characteristics had moderate to almost‐perfect test‐retest repeatability (e.g. eye colour weighted kappa (κw) = 0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81, 0.92). Items measuring sun exposure showed lower agreement (κw range 0.36‐0.54) compared with phenotypic characteristics (κw range 0.59‐0.87). Items relating to treatment of skin cancers demonstrated almost‐perfect test‐retest repeatability (e.g. excisions for skin cancers κw 0.85, 95%CI: 0.80, 0.89). In aggregate, the repeatability of key items was very similar across the two independent repeatability samples. Conclusion: Fair to almost‐perfect repeatability for self‐reported skin cancer risk factors was robust across independent and temporally distant cohorts. Implications for public health: These self‐assessed risk factors for skin cancer are repeatable and suitable for use in clinical practice and research.

OBJECTIVE: Smoking has been associated with a reduced risk of thyroid cancer, but whether the association varies between higher- and lower-risk cancers remains unclear. We aimed to assess the association between smoking and risk of thyroid cancer overall as well as by tumour BRAF mutational status as a marker of potentially higher-risk cancer. DESIGN AND PATIENTS: We recruited 1013 people diagnosed with thyroid cancer and 1057 population controls frequency-matched on age and sex. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association overall and in analyses stratified by tumour characteristics. We used sensitivity analysis to assess the potential for selection bias. RESULTS: We found little evidence of an association with current smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-1.26; current vs. never smoking), but a higher number of pack-years of smoking was associated with a lower risk of thyroid cancer (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.57-0.99; ≥20 pack-years vs. never). However, after correcting for potential selection bias, we observed a statistically significant inverse association between current smoking and risk of thyroid cancer (bias-corrected OR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.51-0.83). Those with BRAF-positive cancers were less likely to be current smokers than those with BRAF-negative cancers (prevalence ratio: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.62-0.99). CONCLUSION: We found smoking was inversely related to thyroid cancer risk and, in particular, current smoking was associated with a reduced risk of potentially more aggressive BRAF-positive than the likely more indolent BRAF-negative papillary thyroid cancers.

Background: Thyroid cancer incidence has increased in many parts of the world since the 1980s, as has the prevalence of obesity. Evidence suggests that people with greater body size have higher thy...

STUDY QUESTION How does the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) vary with type and age of menopause? SUMMARY ANSWER Earlier surgical menopause (e.g. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Earlier age at menopause has been linked to an increased risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality, but the extent that this risk of CVD varies by type of menopause and the role of postmenopausal HRT use in reducing this risk is unclear. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION Pooled individual-level data of 203 767 postmenopausal women from 10 observational studies that contribute to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE) consortium were included in the analysis. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Postmenopausal women who had reported menopause (type and age of menopause) and information on non-fatal CVD events were included. Type of menopause (natural menopause and surgical menopause) and age at menopause (categorised as MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Compared with natural menopause, surgical menopause was associated with over 20% higher risk of CVD (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16–1.28). After the stratified analysis by age at menopause, a graded relationship for incident CVD was observed with lower age at menopause in both types of natural and surgical menopause. There was also a significant interaction between type of menopause and age at menopause (P LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Self-reported data on type and age of menopause, no information on indication for the surgery (e.g. endometriosis and fibroids) and the exclusion of fatal CVD events may bias our results. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS In clinical practice, women who experienced natural menopause or had surgical menopause at an earlier age need close monitoring and engagement for preventive health measures and early diagnosis of CVD. Our findings also suggested that timing of menopause should be considered as an important factor in risk assessment of CVD for women. The findings on CVD lend some support to the position that elective bilateral oophorectomy (surgical menopause) at hysterectomy for benign diseases should be discouraged based on an increased risk of CVD. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) InterLACE project is funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council project grant (APP1027196). GDM is supported by Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Principal Research Fellowship (APP1121844). There are no competing interests.

Background Melanoma develops as the result of complex interactions between sun exposure and genetic factors. However, data on these interactions from prospective studies are scant. Objectives To quantify the association between ambient and personal ultraviolet exposure and incident melanoma in a large population-based prospective study of men and women residing in a setting of high ambient ultraviolet radiation, and to examine potential gene-environment interactions. Methods Data were obtained from the QSkin Sun and Health Study, a prospective cohort study of men and women aged 40-69 years, randomly sampled from the Queensland population in 2011. Participants were genotyped and assessed for ultraviolet exposure. Results Among participants with genetic data (n = 15 373), 420 (2·7%) developed cutaneous melanoma (173 invasive, 247 in situ) during a median follow-up time of 4·4 years. Country of birth, age at migration, having > 50 sunburns in childhood or adolescence, and a history of keratinocyte cancer or actinic lesions were significantly associated with melanoma risk. Conclusions An interaction with polygenic risk was suggested: among people at low polygenic risk, markers of cumulative sun exposure (as measured by actinic damage) were associated with melanoma. In contrast, among people at high polygenic risk, markers of high-level early-life ambient exposure (as measured by place of birth) were associated with melanoma (hazard ratio for born in Australia vs. overseas 3·16, 95% confidence interval 1·39-7·22). These findings suggest interactions between genotype and environment that are consistent with divergent pathways for melanoma development. What's already known about this topic? The relationship between sun exposure and melanoma is complex, and exposure effects are highly modified by host factors and behaviours. The role of genotype on the relationship between ultraviolet radiation exposure and melanoma risk is poorly understood. What does this study add? We found that country of birth, age at migration, sunburns in childhood or adolescence, and history of keratinocyte cancer or actinic lesions were significantly associated with melanoma risk, while other measures of continuous or more intermittent patterns of sun exposure were not. We found evidence for gene-environment interactions that are consistent with divergent pathways for melanoma development. Linked Comment: Cust. Br J Dermatol 2020; 183:205-206. Plain language summary available online.

Background Hysterectomy (surgical removal of the uterus) has been consistently associated with increased thyroid cancer risk. While there may be a biologic explanation, increased ascertainment (over-diagnosis) because of greater healthcare use by women having this procedure might also contribute to the observed increased risk. We explored this association considering indications for hysterectomy, age at hysterectomy, and the potential for the association to be mediated by increased contact with health professionals or increased thyroid function testing. Methods We recruited 730 women diagnosed with thyroid cancer and 785 age-matched population controls. We estimated odds ratios (OR) using logistic regression to assess the associations and used causal mediation analysis to investigate potential mediation. Results Prior hysterectomy was associated with an increased thyroid cancer risk (OR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.14-2.12). When stratified by indication for hysterectomy, the increased risk was apparent only among those who had undergone hysterectomy for bleeding disorders (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.26-2.56). Additionally, the association varied by age at hysterectomy ( Conclusions Hysterectomy for bleeding disorders was associated with an increased risk of thyroid cancer among women and a moderate proportion of this appeared due to frequent medical contact. Key messages The way in which women use health services probably explains at least some of the association between hysterectomy and risk of thyroid cancer.

Background A personal history of keratinocyte carcinoma (KC) has been reported as a risk factor for developing subsequent primary cutaneous and non-cutaneous malignancies. However most evidence to date stems from observational studies which are prone to bias, confounding and reverse causation. Our aim was to examine this association using different Mendelian randomization (MR) approaches. Methods We performed a one-sample MR analysis using individual-level data from the UK Biobank (n = 394,306). This analysis was then validated in an independent dataset in the QSkin cohort (n = 16,896). Using 64 independent genetic variants known to be associated with KC, we generated a polygenic risk score (PRS) for each participant in the UK Biobank and the QSkin cohort. We then performed two-sample MR analyses using genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics. We tested the association between genetically predicted KC and risk of subsequent cancer using logistic regression. Results Results from one-sample MR analyses in the UK Biobank indicated that a personal history of KC was significantly associated with cancer overall (excluding melanoma) (OR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.10-1.20, per doubling the prevalence of KC). The results from the two-sample MR corroborate the findings from the one-sample MR, although the risk estimate was lower (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.03-1.07). Conclusions Our MR analyses suggest that genetically predicted KC is a risk factor for developing subsequent primary malignancies. Key messages A personal history of KC may serve as a proxy marker of inherited cancer risk.

Background Patient medical out-of-pocket expenses are thought to be rising worldwide yet data describing trends over time is scant. We evaluated trends of out-of-pocket expenses for patients in Australia with one of five major cancers in the first-year after diagnosis. Methods Participants from the QSKIN Sun and Health prospective cohort Study with a histologically confirmed breast, colorectal, lung, melanoma, or prostate cancer diagnosed between 2011 and 2015 were included (n = 1965). Medicare claims data on out-of-pocket expenses were analysed using a two-part model adjusted for year of diagnosis, health insurance status, age and education level. Fisher price and quantity indexes were also calculated to assess prices and volumes separately. Results On average, patients with cancer diagnosed in 2015 spent 70% more out-of-pocket on direct medical expenses than those diagnosed in 2011. Out-of-pocket expenses increased significantly for patients with breast cancer (mean AU$2513 in 2011 to AU$6802 in 2015). Out-of-pocket expenses were higher overall for individuals with private health insurance. For prostate cancer, expenses increased for those without private health insurance over time (mean AU$1586 in 2011 to AU$4748 in 2014) and remained stable for those with private health insurance (AU$4397 in 2011 to AU$5623 in 2015). There were progressive increases in prices and quantities of medical services for patients with melanoma, breast and lung cancer. For all cancers, prices increased for medicines and doctor attendances but fluctuated for other medical services. Conclusion Out-of-pocket expenses for patients with cancer have increased substantially over time. Such increases were more pronounced for women with breast cancer and those without private health insurance. Increased out-of-pocket expenses arose from both higher prices and higher volumes of health services but differ by cancer type. Further efforts to monitor patient out-of-pocket costs and prevent health inequities are required.

Background Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is the eighth most common cancer in women, has a five-year survival of ∼45%, and very few established modifiable risk factors. Some evidence suggests that bisphosphonates could have chemopreventive benefits, but few epidemiological studies have investigated the association between bisphosphonate use and incidence of EOC. Methods We conducted a nested case-control study using linked administrative data. We identified 9,367 women over 50 years diagnosed with EOC (cases) from 2004 to 2013, and for each case identified five controls from the Australian Medicare Enrolment database matched by age, state, area of residence, and area-level socioeconomic disadvantage. We assessed the associations between bisphosphonate use using dispensed prescription data (ever use, duration and dose) and EOC (overall, by histotype), adjusting for comorbidities and MHT use. We conducted sensitivity analyses in women with complete ascertainment of dispensing claims and for residents of one Australian state that had linked with data linked to hospital procedures, including oophorectomy. Results Our analyses show an inverse association between bisphosphonate use and risk of EOC overall (OR = 0.81, 95%CI:0.75-0.88), and for endometrioid (OR = 0.51, 95%CI:0.33-0.79) and serous (OR = 0.84, 95%CI:0.75-0.93) histotypes. There was some evidence that higher dose and duration were associated with a greater reduction in risk. Results from sensitivity analyses were not appreciably different. Conclusions Bisphosphonate use was associated with lower risk of EOC, suggesting bisphosphonates may reduce risk of ovarian cancer development. Key messages Bisphosphonates may protect against development of serous and endometrioid ovarian cancers.

Keratoacanthomas are common keratinocyte skin tumours. However, there is little community-based data published on the clinical features of keratoacanthoma. The aim of this study was to describe the patient and tumour characteristics of keratoacanthomas, as well as their treatment patterns. Data were obtained from the QSkin Sun and Health study, a prospective cohort of 40,438 randomly sampled and consented participants aged 40-69 years in Queensland, Australia. In 2010, a baseline survey collected data, including demography, phenotype, ultraviolet radiation exposure, medical history and lifestyle. Histopathological reports of keratoacanthomas arising until 30 June 2014 were reviewed. In total, 584 participants developed 738 keratoacanthomas; 18% of participants developed multiple tumours. Common patient characteristics were male sex (58%), age ≥60 years (76%), fair skin (80%), and previous history of actinic keratoses/keratinocyte cancers (89%). Keratoacanthomas were commonly located on the legs/feet (48%), and rarely on the the head/neck (7%). Excision was the most frequently used surgical method (71%) Evidence of histopathological regression was reported in 67% of keratoacanthomas, suggesting a potential for spontan-eous resolution in a significant proportion of keratoacanthomas.

Background Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been postulated as chemopreventive agents for basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), but findings from observational studies have been inconsistent, and clinical trial data are scant. Objectives To examine the association between aspirin and NSAID (nonaspirin) use and the risk of BCC and SCC in a large cohort specifically designed for skin cancer outcomes. Methods We used data from the QSkin Study, a prospective cohort of 43 764 residents of Queensland, Australia (34 630 were included in this study and 23 581 were used in our primary analyses). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) between self-reported aspirin and NSAID use 1 year prior to study baseline and the first histologically confirmed BCC or SCC for high-risk (history of skin cancer excisions or more than five actinic lesions treated) and average-to-low-risk participants (no history of skin cancer excision and at most five actinic lesions treated). Results After a median of 3 years of follow-up, 3421 participants developed BCC and 1470 SCC (2288 BCC and 932 SCC with complete covariate information). Among the high-risk group (1826 BCC and 796 SCC), compared with never use, frequent (at least weekly) NSAID use was associated with reduced risk of BCC (HR 0·84, 95% confidence interval 0·71-0.99) but not SCC. Aspirin use was associated with reduced risk of SCC (HR 0·77, 95% confidence interval 0·64-0·93) only among infrequent (less than weekly) users and was not associated with BCC. We observed no association between NSAID or aspirin use and the risk of BCC or SCC among average-to-low-risk participants. Conclusions While some weakly inverse associations were observed between prior use of aspirin or NSAIDs and skin cancer, the inconsistent patterns of associations do not provide convincing evidence that these medications reduce subsequent skin cancer risk. Further data on doses, duration and long-term follow-up may help us to comprehend the cumulative dose effect.

Early menopause is associated with an increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Few studies have investigated the converse. We examined whether premenopausal CVD events are associated with early age at menopause. We pooled the individual data of 177,131 women from nine studies. We used multinomial logistic regression models to estimate multivariable relative risk ratios (RRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between age at onset of premenopausal CVD events—including coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke—and age at natural menopause. Altogether 1561 (0.9%) premenopausal participants reported CVD events (including 1130 CHD and 469 stroke) at a mean age of 41.3 years. Compared with women without any premenopausal CVD events, women who experienced a first CVD event before age 35 years had a twofold risk of menopause before age 45 years (early menopause); adjusted RRR (95% CI) of 1.92 (1.17, 3.14) for any CVD, 1.86 (1.01, 3.43) for CHD and 2.17 (1.43, 3.30) for stroke. Women who experienced a first premenopausal CVD event after age 40 years underwent a natural menopause at the expected age (around 51 years). These associations were robust to adjustment for smoking status, BMI, educational level, race/ethnicity, age at menarche, parity, hypertension and family history of CVD. For premenopausal women, a first CVD event before age 35 years is associated with a doubling of the risk of an early menopause, while a first CVD event occurred after 35 years indicates a normal menopause at around 51 years. Shared genetic and environmental factors (such as smoking), as well as compromised vasculature following CVD events, may contribute to this outcome.

Background Epidemiological studies have consistently documented an increased risk of developing primary non-cutaneous malignancies among people with a history of keratinocyte carcinoma (KC). However, the mechanisms underlying this association remain unclear. We conducted two separate analyses to test whether genetically predicted KC is related to the risk of developing cancers at other sites. Methods In the first approach (one-sample), we calculated the polygenic risk scores (PRS) for KC using individual-level data in the UK Biobank (n = 394 306) and QSkin cohort (n = 16 896). The association between the KC PRS and each cancer site was assessed using logistic regression. In the secondary (two-sample) approach, we used genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics identified from the most recent GWAS meta-analysis of KC and obtained GWAS data for each cancer site from the UK-Biobank participants only. We used inverse-variance-weighted methods to estimate risks across all genetic variants. Results Using the one-sample approach, we found that the risks of cancer at other sites increased monotonically with KC PRS quartiles, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13–1.19 for those in KC PRS quartile 4 compared with those in quartile 1. In the two-sample approach, the pooled risk of developing other cancers was statistically significantly elevated, with an OR of 1.05, 95% CI: 1.03–1.07 per doubling in the odds of KC. We observed similar trends of increasing cancer risk with increasing KC PRS in the QSkin cohort. Conclusion Two different genetic approaches provide compelling evidence that an instrumental variable for KC constructed from genetic variants predicts the risk of cancers at other sites.

Despite many epidemiologic studies in the past two decades investigating whether hormonal and reproductive factors increase risk of melanoma, the issue remains unresolved. Findings appear to differ according to study design, with positive findings generally limited to case-control studies, which are prone to selection and recall bias. Given the relative paucity of prospective data on the topic, we aimed to assess the relationship between hormonal and reproductive factors and subsequent risk of melanoma in a large population-based cohort of Australian women.

IMPORTANCE: Men and women develop melanoma at different rates on different body sites, with variation across countries, but explanations for these disparities remain elusive. OBJECTIVE: To test whether observed differences in melanoma incidence between men and women vary by population, age, or anatomic site. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of sex- and site-specific temporal trends in melanoma incidence over 3 decades was conducted for men and women diagnosed with invasive melanoma in the US (limited to white race), Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the UK, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. Using cancer registry data, male to female incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated overall and by anatomic site, and Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate the annual percentage rate changes in sex- and site-specific incidence in each population. Incidence rates were standardized to the US 2000 population. Data on the incidence between January 1, 1982, and December 31, 2015, were obtained; analysis was conducted from March 1 to October 15, 2019. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Male to female IRRs and annual percentage change in rates. RESULTS: Total melanoma incidence was higher in men than women in US individuals (limited to white race), Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, but not in Denmark, the UK, Norway, and Sweden. In all populations, men had higher rates of melanoma of the head and neck and trunk than women (male to female IRR >1), but lower melanoma rates on the lower limbs (ie, male to female IRR approximately 0.5). The male to female IRR increased log linearly with age, with excess melanomas in women younger than 45 years in all populations (eg, IRR for 20-24 y age group, 0.3 in Denmark and 0.7 in Australia), and excess melanomas in men older than 69 years (eg, IRR for 70-74 y age group, 1.1 in Denmark and 2.1 in the US white population). The age at which the melanoma incidence in men exceeded the melanoma incidence in women differed by population, being achieved the earliest in Australia (45-49 years) and latest in Denmark (65-69 years). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In predominantly fair-skinned populations, melanoma incidence appears to differ systematically and consistently between men and women by age and anatomic site.

Introduction: Evidence from clinical trials and observational studies on the relationship between menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has been discordant. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that the association between MHT and risk of CVD might be affected by both age at menopause and age when initiated MHT. Methods: We harmonised and pooled individual-level data from 15 studies across five countries/regions (Australia, Scandinavia, USA, Japan, and UK). Postmenopausal women who had reported their MHT status (user or non-user) and CVD status (occurred or not, including coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke) were included. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between MHT use and incident CVD. We stratified the analyses by age when initiated MHT and age at natural menopause to examine the interaction between MHT, age initiated MHT, and age at menopause on incident CVD. Results: Overall, 190 625 postmenopausal women were included. We identified 10 601 incident CVD events, including 7615 CHD and 3543 strokes. Around 39% (74 585) women were MHT users. Compared to non-users of MHT, women who were MHT users had 10% higher risk of incident CVD (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.14), with HR (95% CI) of (1.15, 1.10-1.20) for CHD and (1.02, 0.96-1.09) for stroke. After stratifying by age at natural menopause, women who experienced menopause after age 45 years and took MHT had around 15% higher risk of CHD, while the significant association with incident stroke was only observed in women who had menopause after 55 years (1.16, 1.01-1.33). After a further stratification by age initiated MHT, we found the significant associations between MHT users and incident CVD were only observed in women who experienced menopause after age 45 years and took MHT at age 60 years or old (Table 1). Conclusions: Postmenopausal women who experienced natural menopause after age 45 years and took MHT after age 60 years had increased risk of incident CVD.

Background/Objectives: Basal cell carcinomas (BCCs) and cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) are the most commonly encountered cancers in fair‐skinned populations worldwide. Perineural invasion is associated with worse outcomes for patients with BCC or SCC. Estimates of perineural invasion prevalence range widely, likely reflecting non‐representative patient samples. We sought to determine the prevalence of perineural invasion in BCC and SCC in the general population, as well as among cancers arising in solid organ transplant recipients. Methods: We retrospectively analysed histopathology reports of BCC and SCC from patients enrolled in the QSkin Study (a population‐based cohort of 43 794 Queensland residents recruited 2010–2011) and the Skin Tumours in Allograft Recipients (STAR) study (a cohort of 509 high‐risk kidney or liver transplant recipients at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, recruited 2012–2014.) We estimated the prevalence of perineural invasion (and 95% confidence interval) in BCC and SCC, respectively, and identified clinical factors associated with perineural invasion. Results: In QSkin, we observed 35 instances of perineural invasion in 9850 histopathologically confirmed BCCs (0.36%) and 9 instances of perineural invasion in 3982 confirmed SCC (0.23%) lesions. In the STAR cohort, we identified 4 lesions with perineural invasion in 692 BCCs (0.58%) and 16 reports of perineural invasion in 875 SCC lesions (1.9%). Conclusions: These data suggest that the overall prevalence of perineural invasion in keratinocyte cancer is low, although perineural invasion prevalence may be slightly higher among organ transplant recipients when compared to the general population.

A proportion of cutaneous melanomas display neval remnants on histologic examination. Converging lines of epidemiologic and molecular evidence suggest that melanomas arising from nevus precursors differ from melanomas arising de novo. In a large, population-based study comprising 636 cutaneous melanomas subjected to dermatopathology review, we explored the molecular, host, and environmental factors associated with the presence of neval remnants. We found that nevus-associated melanomas were significantly associated with younger age at presentation, non-brown eye color, trunk site, thickness of less than 0.5 mm, and BRAFV600E mutation. Compared with patients with de novo melanomas, those with nevus-associated tumors were more likely to self-report many moles on their skin as a teenager (odds ratio = 1.94, 95% confidence interval = 1.01–3.72) but less likely to report many facial freckles (odds ratio = 0.49, 95% confidence interval = 0.25–0.96). They also had high total nevus counts (odds ratio = 2.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.26–3.78). On histologic examination, nevus-associated melanomas exhibited less dermal elastosis in adjacent skin compared with de novo melanomas (odds ratio = 0.55, 95% confidence interval = 0.30–1.01). These epidemiologic data accord with the emerging molecular paradigm that nevus-associated melanomas arise through a distinct sequence of causal events that differ from those leading to other cutaneous melanomas.

Background: Previous studies suggest that smokers have lower risks of cutaneous melanoma than nonsmokers, but data from population-based prospective studies are scarce. We investigated associations between smoking and melanoma in a cohort study purpose-designed to investigate skin cancer outcomes. Methods: Participants with no prior history of melanoma (n = 38,697) completed a risk factor survey at baseline (2011). Patients were followed through linkage to the cancer registry. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between smoking (including intensity, duration, time since quitting) and melanoma using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, accounting for death as a competing event. Results: During a mean follow-up of 3.5 years, invasive melanomas developed in 247 participants. Compared with never smokers, former smokers (but not current smokers) had lower risks of invasive melanoma (HR 0.76; 95% CI, 0.57–1.01). Among former smokers, risks were lower with greater quantity of cigarettes smoked (HR 0.75; 95% CI, 0.56–0.98 per 10 cigarettes/day). No association was observed with duration of smoking while longer time since quitting was associated with a relative risk of melanoma that was not significantly different from the null (HR 1.18; 95% CI, 0.91–1.51, for every 10 years since quitting). Conclusions: We observed complex associations between smoking and melanoma, with some suggestion that former smokers had lower risks than never or current smokers. The apparent inverse association among former smokers may be due to residual confounding, although surveillance bias or biological effects cannot be excluded entirely. Impact: Smoking does not increase the risk of cutaneous melanoma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(8); 874–81. ©2018 AACR.

Objective: To determine the cost burden to government and patients for individuals with multiple skin cancers. Methods: We used self‐reported baseline data on socio‐demographics, phenotype and sun exposure behaviours from participants in the QSkin Sun and Health Study with at least one histopathologically confirmed keratinocyte cancer or melanoma (n=5,673). Linkage to Australian Medicare data (2011–2014) provided resource data and government and out‐of‐pocket patient costs. Generalised linear models examined costs by frequency of skin cancer groups separately for melanoma and keratinocyte cancer. Results: Over three years, 539 participants were diagnosed with melanoma (11% had ≥2 melanomas) and 5,134 participants were treated for keratinocyte cancers (10% had ≥6). Median Medicare costs per person were $1,325 (maximum $6,117) for ≥2 melanomas and $2,126 (maximum $54,618) for ≥6 keratinocyte cancers. Increased costs were associated with private health insurance. Conclusions: Individuals who are multiply affected by skin cancers are relatively common and the accompanying individual and government cost burden can be substantial. These findings support skin cancer being classified as a chronic disease. Implications for public health: Over time, the economic burden for skin cancer for individuals and health providers is high and investment in prevention remains important from an economic viewpoint.

Relatively little is known about the epidemiology of Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) with regard to international trends in incidence, specifically relating to differences by age, sex, and anatomic site. We examined the trends in sex-specific incidence of MCC in the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Scotland, and Norway over a 20-year period (1997-2016) as well as the site-specific incidence trends in the United States. We used Joinpoint regression models to estimate the average annual percentage change in the incidence. In the total United States population, we observed an average annual percentage change of 2.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.0-3.3) for MCC, with sex-specific incidence increasing from 0.55 to 1.03 per 100,000 in men and from 0.28 to 0.45 per 100,000 in women. MCC incidence also increased in Queensland, Australia (average annual percentage change 1.8%, 95% CI = 0.7-2.8), New Zealand (2.0%, 95% CI = 0.4-3.7), Scotland (3.7%, 95% CI = 2.0-5.5), and Norway (4.0%, 95% CI = 2.1-5.9). In all populations, MCC incidence was higher in men than in women. Between 1993 and 2016 in the United States, the incidence of MCC of the head and neck and upper and lower limbs increased in both sexes. Despite being an uncommon malignancy, our analyses show that MCC incidence is steadily increasing both in areas of low and those of high ambient UVR levels.

In their recent publication, Baron and colleagues ([1][1]) reviewed the epidemiologic and biological evidence for the protective association between tobacco smoking and four “estrogen-related” malignancies (endometrial cancer, endometrioid and clear-cell ovarian cancers, and thyroid cancer).

Background Hysterectomy has been associated with increased thyroid cancer risk but whether this reflects a biological link or increased diagnosis of indolent cancers due to greater medical contact remains unclear. Methods We recruited 730 women diagnosed with thyroid cancer and 785 age-matched population controls. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association overall, and by tumour BRAF mutational status as a marker of potentially higher-risk cancers. We used causal mediation analysis to investigate potential mediation of the association by healthcare service use. Results Having had a hysterectomy was associated with an increased risk of thyroid cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 1.45, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.07–1.96). When stratified by indication for hysterectomy, the risk appeared stronger for those who had a hysterectomy for menstrual disorders (OR = 1.67, 95 % CI 1.17–2.37) but did not differ by tumour BRAF status. Approximately 20 % of the association between hysterectomy and thyroid cancer may be mediated by more frequent use of healthcare services. Conclusions The observed increased risk of thyroid cancer among those with hysterectomy may be driven, at least partly, by an altered sex steroid hormone milieu. More frequent healthcare service use by women with hysterectomy accounts for only a small proportion of the association.

Aims: First, to conduct a detailed exploration of the prospective relations between four commonly used anthropometric measures with incident diabetes and to examine their consistency across different population subgroups. Second, to compare the ability of each of the measures to predict five-year risk of diabetes. Methods: We conducted a meta-analysis of individual participant data on body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-hip and waist-height ratio (WHtR) from the Obesity, Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease Collaboration. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between a one standard deviation increment in each anthropometric measure and incident diabetes. Harrell’s concordance statistic was used to test the predictive accuracy of each measure for diabetes risk at five years. Results: Twenty-one studies with 154,998 participants and 9342 cases of incident diabetes were available. Each of the measures had a positive association with incident diabetes. A one standard deviation increment in each of the measures was associated with 64-80% higher diabetes risk. WC and WHtR more strongly associated with risk than BMI (ratio of hazard ratios: 0.95 [0.92, 0.99] - 0.97 [0.95, 0.98]) but there was no appreciable difference between the four measures in the predictive accuracy for diabetes at five years. Conclusions: Despite suggestions that abdominal measures of obesity have stronger associations with incident diabetes and better predictive accuracy than BMI, we found no overall advantage in any one measure at discriminating the risk of developing diabetes. Any of these measures would suffice to assist in primary diabetes prevention efforts.

Objectives: To assess the incidence and multiplicity of keratinocyte cancers (basal cell carcinoma [BCC] and squamous cell carcinoma [SCC]) excised in Australia, and to examine variations by age, sex, state, and prior skin cancer history.Design: Analysis of individual-level Medicare data for keratinocyte cancer treatments (identified by eight specific MBS item codes) during 2011-2014. Histological data from the QSkin prospective cohort study were analysed to estimate BCC and SCC incidence.Setting: A 10% systematic random sample of all people registered with Medicare during 1997-2014.Participants: People aged at least 20 years in 2011 who made at least one claim for any MBS medical service during 2011-2014 (1 704 193 individuals).Main outcome measures: Age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs).Results: The person-based incidence of keratinocyte cancer excisions in Australia was 1531 per 100 000 person-years; incidence increased with age, and was higher for men than women (SIR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.42-1.45). Lesion-based incidence was 3154 per 100 000 person-years. The estimated ASRs for BCC and SCC were 770 per 100 000 and 270 per 100 000 person-years respectively. During 2011-2014, 3.9% of Australians had one keratinocyte cancer excised, 2.7% had more than one excised; 74% of skin cancers were excised from patients who had two or more lesions removed. Multiplicity was strongly correlated with age; most male patients over 70 were treated for multiple lesions. Keratinocyte cancer incidence was eight times as high among people with a prior history of excisions as among those without.Conclusions: The incidence and multiplicity of keratinocyte cancer in Australia are very high, causing a large disease burden that has not previously been quantified.

Sunlight is the principal environmental risk factor for keratinocyte cancers, but other carcinogens have also been implicated, including tobacco smoke. Findings have been conflicting, however. We investigated associations between cigarette smoking and incidence of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) or squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in QSkin, a prospective study of skin cancer (N = 43,794). Smoking history was self-reported at baseline; newly diagnosed BCCs and SCCs were ascertained through data linkage and verified by histopathology reports. We restricted analyses to white participants who at baseline reported no past history of skin cancer excisions and no more than five destructively treated actinic skin lesions. We fitted Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for known confounders. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had significantly lower risks of BCC (hazard ratio = 0.6; 95% confidence interval = 0.4–0.9) but significantly higher risks of SCC (hazard ratio = 2.3; 95% confidence interval = 1.5–3.6). Former smokers had similar risks for BCC and SCC as never smokers. Among smokers, we observed no dose-response trends with duration of smoking, intensity, or time since quitting. On further analysis, current smokers had fewer skin examinations and procedures than never smokers, suggesting greater opportunities for detection among never smokers. Strengths include large sample size, prospective design, and virtually complete follow-up; however, histologic details were missing for a proportion of excised tumors. In conclusion, current smokers had a lower incidence of BCC (possibly because of detection bias) but higher rates of SCC.

Purpose Family history of pancreatic adenocarcinoma is an established risk factor for the disease. However, associations of pancreatic cancer with other familial cancers are less clear. We analyzed data from the Queensland Pancreatic Cancer Study (QPCS), an Australian population-based case-control study, to investigate associations between family history of various cancer types and risk of pancreatic cancer. Materials and methods Our study included 591 pancreatic cancer patients and 646 controls, all of whom self-reported the histories of cancer in their first-degree relatives. We used logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Based on our results, we conducted a systematic literature review using the Medline (OVID) database to identify articles pertaining to the association between family history of melanoma and risk of pancreatic cancer. A meta-analysis including associations in five published studies, unpublished results from a study co-author and the QPCS results was then performed using the DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model. Results Cases were more likely than controls to report a family history of pancreatic cancer (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.16–4.19) and melanoma (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.03–2.95), but not of breast, ovarian, respiratory, other gastrointestinal or prostate cancer. Meta-analysis of melanoma family history and pancreatic cancer risk yielded an OR of 1.22 (95% CI 1.00–1.51). Conclusions Our results yield further evidence of increased risk of pancreatic cancer in those with family histories of the disease. We also provide suggestive evidence of an association between family history of melanoma and risk of pancreatic cancer.

Background: Early menopause is linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality; however, the association between early menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease is unclear. We aimed to assess the associations between age at natural menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease. Methods: We harmonised and pooled individual-level data from 15 observational studies done across five countries and regions (Australia, Scandinavia, the USA, Japan, and the UK) between 1946 and 2013. Women who had reported their menopause status, age at natural menopause (if postmenopausal), and cardiovascular disease status (including coronary heart disease and stroke) were included. We excluded women who had hysterectomy or oophorectomy and women who did not report their age at menopause. The primary endpoint of this study was the occurrence of first non-fatal cardiovascular disease, defined as a composite outcome of incident coronary heart disease (including heart attack and angina) or stroke (including ischaemic stroke or haemorrhagic stroke). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between age at menopause and incident cardiovascular disease event. We also adjusted the model to account for smoking status, menopausal hormone therapy status, body-mass index, and education levels. Age at natural menopause was categorised as premenopausal or perimenopausal, younger than 40 years (premature menopause), 40–44 years (early menopause), 45–49 years (relatively early), 50–51 years (reference category), 52–54 years (relatively late), and 55 years or older (late menopause). Findings: Overall, 301 438 women were included in our analysis. Of these 301 438 women, 12 962 (4·3%) had a first non-fatal cardiovascular disease event after menopause, of whom 9369 (3·1%) had coronary heart disease and 4338 (1·4%) had strokes. Compared with women who had menopause at age 50–51 years, the risk of cardiovascular disease was higher in women who had premature menopause (age

Introduction: Evidence has shown that early menopause is linked to higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women. A prevailing view is that endogenous estrogen may confer protection against heart disease, so the reduction of endogenous estrogen at menopause triggers vascular ageing and accelerate the progression of coronary heart disease (CHD). Hypothesis: If estrogen protection against coronary heart disease is true, we hypothesized that earlier menopause might also lead to earlier onset of CVD, and years of exposure to low estrogen level after menopause may play a role. The higher risk of CVD with early menopause might be driven by a longer duration experienced after menopause. Methods: A total of 151 951 naturally postmenopausal women without experiencing CVD and had no use of menopause hormone therapy (MHT) before menopause were included. We used logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between age at natural menopause and subsequent incident CVD events (binominal model), as well as age at onset of CVD (multinomial model). Age at menopause was categorized as Results: There were 6042 CVD events reported, including 4232 CHD and 2075 strokes. 1.7% and 6.5% of women experienced premature and early menopause respectively. Women who experienced premature or early menopause or menopause at 45-49 years had increased odds of experiencing incident CVD events compared with menopause at 50-51 years, with adjusted ORs (95% CI) of 1.86 (1.26, 2.75), 1.62 (1.31, 2.00) and 1.25 (1.10, 1.41) respectively. Women with early menopause ( Conclusions: Premature and early menopause were significantly associated with higher odds of experiencing incident CVD, and were strongly associated with early-onset CVD before the age of 60 years. The elevated odds of incident CVD in women with early menopause did not appear until 15 years after menopause.

Introduction: Early menopause has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but few studies have examined the converse, i.e., whether CVD events that occurred before menopause were linked to early natural menopause. Methods: Pooled participant-level data (177 131 women) from nine studies that contributed to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE) consortium were included. We used multinomial logistic regression models to estimate multivariable relative risk ratios (RRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between age at onset of non-fatal premenopausal CVD events (including coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke events) and age at natural menopause. Age at menopause was categorised as Results: Overall, there were 1561 (0.9%) non-fatal premenopausal CVD events (including 1130 CHD and 469 stroke events). The mean age at onset of premenopausal CVD was 41.3 years (standard deviation: 8.2 years, median 44.0 years). Compared with women without experiencing any premenopausal CVD events, women who experienced premenopausal CVD, CHD or stroke before age 35 years had 2-fold increased risk of experiencing early menopause ( Conclusions: In conclusion, women with premenopausal CVD events that occurred before age 35 years had twice the risk of having early menopause. Shared genetic and environmental factors, as well as compromised vasculature after CVD events may play a role.

The incidence of thyroid cancer has rapidly increased, and ecological evidence suggests this is due in some part to over-diagnosis. Understanding pathways to diagnosis could help determine whether unnecessary diagnosis can be avoided.A population-based sample (n = 1007) of thyroid cancer patients diagnosed between July 2013 and August 2016 was recruited from Queensland, Australia (response rate 67%). Information from structured telephone interviews was used to describe diagnostic pathways for thyroid cancer, to investigate factors associated with diagnostic pathways, and to assess the most prevalent modes of diagnoses by which the lowest-risk, potentially over-diagnosed thyroid cancers (intrathyroidal microcarcinomas) are detected.Only 38% of participants presented with symptoms potentially related to thyroid cancer. Older age at diagnosis was associated with a lower prevalence of symptomatic diagnosis (prevalence ratio [PR] = 0.46 [confidence interval (CI) 0.31-0.68] for 70-79 vs.30 years), as was frequent medical contact, while living in rural/regional areas was associated with a higher prevalence of symptomatic diagnosis (PR = 1.17 [CI 1.00-1.37] for rural/regional areas vs. major cities). Symptomatic diagnosis also occurred more for those whose tumors had adverse histopathological features (larger size, lymph node involvement, lymphovascular invasion). The likelihood of diagnosis of intrathyroidal microcarcinomas was greatest for those having surgical resection or monitoring for benign thyroid disease (PR = 3.87 [CI 2.81-5.32] and PR = 2.21 [CI 1.53-3.18], respectively).A minority of newly detected thyroid cancer cases were diagnosed because of symptoms. Access to medical care and factors related to cancer aggressiveness were associated with how diagnoses occurred. The likelihood of diagnosing the lowest-risk thyroid cancers was higher in situations related to management of other thyroid conditions. Adherence to thyroid management guidelines could reduce some thyroid cancer over-diagnosis, but ultimately better diagnostic tools are needed to differentiate between indolent cancers and those of clinical significance.

To describe the clinical settings in which keratinocyte cancers are excised in Queensland and describe the types of practitioners who excise them; to examine costs; and to identify predictors of hospital admission. We used linked data for participants from the QSkin study (n = 43 794), including Medicare claims and Queensland hospital admissions relating to treatment episodes for incident keratinocyte cancers from July 2011 to June 2015. We used multinomial logistic regression to measure associations between demographic and clinical characteristics and treatment setting. The median costs of Medicare claims (AU$) were calculated. During 4 years of follow-up, there were 18 479 skin cancer excision episodes among 8613 people. Most excisions took place in private clinical rooms (89.7%), the remainder in hospitals (7.9% private; 2.4% public). Compared with other anatomical sites, skin cancers on the nose, eyelid, ear, lip, finger or genitalia were more likely to be treated in hospitals than in private clinical rooms (public hospital OR 5.7; 95%CI 4.5-7.2; private hospital OR 8.3; 95%CI 7.3-9.4). Primary care practitioners excised 83% of keratinocyte cancers, followed by plastic surgeons (9%) and dermatologists (6%). The median Medicare benefit paid was $253 in private clinical rooms and $334 in private hospitals. Out-of-pocket payments by patients treated in private hospitals were fourfold higher than those in private clinical rooms ($351 vs $80). Most keratinocyte cancers are excised in primary care, although more than 10% of excisions occur in hospital settings.

To delineate causal pathways for melanoma, it is essential to derive unbiased estimates of risk. Extant knowledge derives largely from case-control studies with potential for bias. In a population-based prospective study (QSkin, n = 38,854), we assessed melanoma risks associated with pigmentation characteristics and other phenotypes, and we explored additive interactions. We fitted Cox proportional hazards models to adjust for other factors to estimate the independent effects of each characteristic on melanoma risk. During a mean follow-up of 3.5 years, 642 (1.5%) participants developed melanoma (253 invasive, 389 in situ). The characteristics most strongly associated with invasive melanoma were self-reported nevus density at age 21 years (many vs. no moles hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] = 4.91 [2.81–8.55]), inability to tan (no tan vs. deep tan, hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] = 3.39 [1.85–6.20]), and red hair color (vs. black, hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] = 3.11 [1.50–6.43]). Propensity to sunburn was not associated with melanoma after tanning inability was adjusted for. People with both high nevus density and a history of multiple keratinocyte cancers had significantly higher melanoma risks than those with only one of those traits. We infer that melanoma risk is more strongly related to nevus density and inability to tan than susceptibility to sunburn.

BACKGROUND: Population-based incidence and mortality studies of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) have been few owing to the commonness of the disease, and rare deaths making accurate mortality statistics difficult.OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to summarize SCC incidence and mortality in populations across three continents, exemplified by Australia, the United States (US) and Germany.METHODS: We estimated age-specific and age-standardized (Australian Standard 2001 Population) incidence and mortality rates per 100 000 person-years.RESULTS: Squamous cell carcinoma incidence is plateauing or falling in Australia, stable in the United States (2013-2015) and rising in Germany (2007-2015). Current incidence estimates in men and women are 341 and 209, 497 and 296, and 54 and 26, respectively, for the three countries. Incidence increases strongly with age in all countries. Mortality of non-melanoma skin cancer appears to be increasing in Germany and stable in Australia (unavailable for the US population).CONCLUSIONS: Squamous cell carcinoma is an important health issue, particularly among older men, with incidence exceeding most other cancers. More precise and uniform population-based studies of incidence and mortality are needed to better quantify the impact of SCC on healthcare systems worldwide and to gauge the effect of new treatments such as anti-PD1 therapy on mortality.

Background: Primary care skin cancer clinics facilitate early treatment of melanoma in Australia. We investigated the clinical and histopathological features of melanomas diagnosed and treated in an established clinic in Brisbane. Methods: Retrospective audit of medical records of patients diagnosed with in situ or invasive primary cutaneous melanoma in a primary care clinic specializing in skin cancer, 2000−2017. Demographic and clinical data were standardly extracted by a medically-trained investigator. We used descriptive analyses to assess characteristics of patients and melanomas, and examine surgical management according to tumour thickness. Results: Of 380 patients (median age 57 years; 57 % male) newly diagnosed with 497 histologically-confirmed primary cutaneous melanomas, 369 were in situ and 128 invasive. Of the 369 in situ melanomas, 143 (39 %) were on the trunk and 87 (24 %) on the head and neck; 247 (67 %) were diagnosed by shave biopsy; and 141 (38 %) referred for wide local excision (WLE). Of the 128 invasive melanomas, only 21 (16 %) had thickness ≥ 0.8 mm and these occurred more often on head and neck than thin invasive melanomas (p = 0.02). The majority of invasive melanomas were diagnosed by excision biopsy, and WLE was carried out in a median of 3 days (melanomas ≥ 0.8 mm) and 2 days (

BackgroundMenopausal vasomotor symptoms (ie, hot flashes and night sweats) have been associated with unfavorable risk factors and surrogate markers of cardiovascular disease, but their association with clinical cardiovascular disease events is unclear.ObjectiveTo examine the associations between different components of vasomotor symptoms, timing of vasomotor symptoms, and risk of cardiovascular disease.Study designWe harmonized and pooled individual-level data from 23,365 women in 6 prospective studies that contributed to the International Collaboration for a Life Course Approach to Women's Reproductive Health and Chronic Disease Events consortium. Women who experienced cardiovascular disease events before baseline were excluded. The associations between frequency (never, rarely, sometimes, and often), severity (never, mild, moderate, and severe), and timing (before or after age of menopause; ie, early or late onset) of vasomotor symptoms and incident cardiovascular disease were analyzed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals.ResultsIn the adjusted model, no evidence of association was found between the frequency of hot flashes and incident cardiovascular disease, whereas women who reported night sweats "sometimes" (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.45) or "often" (hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.58) had higher risk for cardiovascular disease. Increased severity of either hot flashes or night sweats was associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease. The hazards ratios of cardiovascular disease in women with severe hot flashes, night sweats, and any vasomotor symptoms were 1.83 (95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.73), 1.59 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-2.37), and 2.11 (95% confidence interval, 1.62-2.76), respectively. Women who reported severity of both hot flashes and night sweats had a higher risk for cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-1.94) than those with hot flashes alone (hazard ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.88) and night sweats alone (hazard ratio, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-2.07). Women with either early-onset (hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.75) or late-onset (hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-2.16) vasomotor symptoms had an increased risk for incident cardiovascular disease compared with women who did not experience vasomotor symptoms.ConclusionSeverity rather than frequency of vasomotor symptoms (hot flashes and night sweats) was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Vasomotor symptoms with onset before or after menopause were also associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease.

Objectives There is limited research on hot flushes and night sweats in women with a hysterectomy with ovarian conservation. We aimed to describe the patterns of these symptoms in a cohort of Australian women and to investigate the relationship between distinct symptom patterns and hysterectomy status. Study design and outcome measures Repeated-measures latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify hot flushes and night sweats symptom patterns across seven surveys (over 17 years) in the mid-cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women⿿s Health. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the associations of the symptom patterns in women with a hysterectomy with ovarian conservation (n = 1129) versus women without a hysterectomy (n = 4977). Results A higher proportion of women with a hysterectomy than of those without experienced a constant pattern of hot flushes (15% versus 30%) and night sweats (9% versus 19%). Women with a hysterectomy had higher odds of constant hot flushes versus minimal hot flushes (OR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.64, 2.35) and constant versus minimal night sweats (OR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.70, 2.55). Smoking, a ⿿lower level of education to non-professional occupation⿿ pathway and body mass index (BMI) patterns of ⿿always obese⿿ and ⿿increasingly obese⿿ were also associated with a higher risk of constant symptoms. Conclusions Women who have a hysterectomy (with ovarian conservation) have a higher risk of hot flushes and night sweats that persist over an extended period.

The increased skin cancer incidence in organ transplant recipients is well-known, but the skin cancer burden at any one time is unknown. Our objective was to estimate the period prevalence of untreated skin malignancy and actinic keratoses in high-risk kidney and liver transplant recipients and to assess associated factors. Organ transplant recipients underwent full skin examinations by dermatologically trained physicians. The proportion of examined organ transplant recipients with histopathologically confirmed skin cancer in the 3-month baseline period was estimated. Prevalence ratios with 95% confidence intervals indicated significant associations. Of 495 high-risk organ transplant recipients (average age = 54 years, time immunosuppressed = 8.9 years), 135 (27%) had basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma or Bowen's disease (intraepidermal carcinoma) present and confirmed in the baseline period, with respective prevalence proportions of 10%, 11%, and 18% in kidney transplant recipients and 10%, 9%, and 13% in liver transplant recipients. Over 80% had actinic keratosis present, with approximately 30% having 5 or more actinic keratoses. Organ transplant recipients with the highest skin cancer burden were Australian born, were fair skinned (prevalence ratio = 1.61, 95% confidence interval = [1.07, 2.43]), reported past skin cancer (prevalence ratio =3.39, 95% confidence interval = [1.93, 5.95]), and were receiving the most frequent skin checks (prevalence ratio = 1.76, 95% confidence interval = [1.15, 2.70]). In conclusion, high-risk organ transplant recipients carry a substantial measurable skin cancer burden at any given time and require frequent review through easily accessible, specialized services.

Cutaneous melanomas arise through causal pathways involving interplay between exposure to UV radiation and host factors, resulting in characteristic patterns of driver mutations in BRAF, NRAS, and other genes. To gain clearer insights into the factors contributing to somatic mutation genotypes in melanoma, we collected clinical and epidemiologic data, performed skin examinations, and collected saliva and tumor samples from a community-based series of 414 patients aged 18 to 79, newly diagnosed with cutaneous melanoma. We assessed constitutional DNA for nine common polymorphisms in melanocortin-1 receptor gene (MC1R). Tumor DNA was assessed for somatic mutations in 25 different genes. We observed mutually exclusive mutations in BRAF(V600E) (26%), BRAF(V600K) (8%), BRAF(other) (5%), and NRAS (9%). Compared to patients with BRAF wild-type melanomas, those with BRAF(V600E) mutants were significantly younger, had more nevi but fewer actinic keratoses, were more likely to report a family history of melanoma, and had tumors that were more likely to harbor neval remnants. BRAF(V600K) mutations were also associated with high nevus counts. Both BRAF(V600K) and NRAS mutants were associated with older age but not with high sun exposure. We also found no association between MC1R status and any somatic mutations in this community sample of cutaneous melanomas, contrary to earlier reports.

Sunscreen when applied at the recommended concentration (2 mg/cm2) has been shown to block the harmful molecular effects of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in vivo. In real world conditions, however, sunscreen is often not applied/reapplied sufficiently to yield protection. This field study tested the effectiveness of UV detection stickers to prevent sunburn and improve reapplication of sunscreen. During the Ashes Cricket Test match event (November 2017) in Brisbane, Australia interested spectators were recruited into the control group on DAY-1 and during subsequent days (DAY-2, DAY-3, DAY-4) new participants were recruited into the UV-Sticker group. Participants in both groups were provided with free sunscreen and participants in the UV-Sticker group were additionally provided with a UV detection sticker. Primary outcomes were self-reported sunburns and reapplication of sunscreen. Secondary endpoints included satisfaction with the UV detection stickers. 813 participants enrolled in the study, and complete data is available for 428 participants (52.6% response rate, n = 369 UV detection sticker, n = 59 control). Participants provided with a UV detection sticker were more likely to re-apply sunscreen than controls (80% vs 68%, p = 0.04); but do not reduce sunburn rates. UV detection stickers may improve sunscreen re-application in a high UV-environment. Trial registration: Australian and New Zealand clinical trials register (ACTRN12617001572358).

Background Hysterectomy is a common surgical procedure, predominantly performed when women are between 30 and 50 years old. One in 3 women in Australia has had a hysterectomy by the time they are 60 years old, and 30% have both ovaries removed at the time of surgery. Given this high prevalence, it is important to understand the long-term effects of hysterectomy. In particular, women who have a hysterectomy/oophorectomy at younger ages are likely to be premenopausal or perimenopausal and may experience greater changes in hormone levels and a shortened reproductive lifespan than women who have a hysterectomy when they are older and postmenopausal. Use of menopausal hormone therapy after surgery may compensate for these hormonal changes. To inform clinical decisions about postsurgery management of women who have a hysterectomy prior to menopause (ie, average age at menopause 50 years), it is useful to compare women with a hysterectomy to women with no hysterectomy and to stratify the hysterectomy status by whether or not women have had a bilateral oophorectomy, or used menopausal hormone therapy. Objective We sought to investigate whether women who had a hysterectomy with ovarian conservation or a hysterectomy and bilateral oophorectomy before the age of 50 years were at a higher risk of premature all-cause mortality compared to women who did not have this surgery before the age of 50 years. We also sought to explore whether use of menopausal hormone therapy modified these associations. Study Design Women from the midcohort (born 1946 through 1951) of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health were included in our study sample (n = 13,541). Women who reported a hysterectomy (with and without both ovaries removed) before the age of 50 years were considered exposure at risk and compared with women who did not report these surgeries before age 50 years. To explore effect modification by use of menopausal hormone therapy we further stratified hysterectomy status by menopausal hormone therapy use. Risk of all-cause mortality was assessed using inverse-probability weighted Cox regression models. Results During a median follow-up of 21.5 years, there were 901 (6.7%) deaths in our study sample. Overall, there was no difference in all-cause mortality between women who reported a hysterectomy with ovarian conservation (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.72–1.02) or women who reported a hysterectomy and bilateral oophorectomy (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.78–1.34) and women with no hysterectomy. When stratified by menopausal hormone therapy use, women with hysterectomy and ovarian conservation before the age of 50 years were not at higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to no hysterectomy, regardless of menopausal hormone therapy use status. In contrast, among nonusers of menopausal hormone therapy only, women who reported a hysterectomy-bilateral oophorectomy before the age of 50 years were at a higher risk of death compared to women with no hysterectomy (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.01–3.25). Conclusion Hysterectomy with ovarian conservation before the age of 50 years did not increase risk of all-cause mortality. Among nonmenopausal hormone therapy users only, hysterectomy and bilateral oophorectomy before the age of 50 years was associated with a higher risk of death.

Aims: Female reproductive history has been inconsistently associated with risk of type 2 diabetes. We examined the prospective associations between aspects of a woman's reproductive history and incident diabetes. Methods: This study pooled 126,721 middle‐aged women's individual data from eight cohort studies contributing to the International Collaboration for a Life Course Approach to Reproductive Health and Chronic Disease Events (InterLACE). Associations between age at menarche, age at first birth, parity and menopausal status with incident diabetes were examined using generalized linear mixed models with binomial distribution and robust variance. We stratified by body mass index (BMI) when there was evidence of a statistical interaction with BMI. Results: Over a median follow‐up of 9 years, 4,073 cases of diabetes were reported. Non‐linear associations with diabetes were observed for age at menarche, parity and age at first birth. Compared with menarche at age 13, menarche at ≤10 years was associated with 18% increased risk of diabetes (Relative Risk [RR] 1.18, 95% Confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.02–1.37) after adjusting for BMI. After stratifying by BMI, the increase risk was only observed in women with BMI >25 kg/m2. A U‐shape relation was observed between parity and risk of diabetes. Compared with pre‐/peri‐menopausal women, women with a hysterectomy/oophorectomy had an increased risk of diabetes (RR 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07–1.29). Conclusions: Several markers of a woman's reproductive history appear to be modestly associated with future risk of diabetes. Maintaining a normal weight in adult life may ameliorate any increase in risk conferred by early onset of menarche.

There are strong associations between a number of reproductive factors and hormone-related cancers such as breast, ovarian and endometrial cancer, but most of these factors (e.g. numbers of pregnancies, age at first birth) cannot pragmatically be modified for the purposes of cancer prevention. Breastfeeding has marked effects on maternal reproductive hormones, has been inversely linked to breast and ovarian cancer and, unlike many other reproductive exposures, can be promoted to women for its public health and individual benefits. In the Second Expert Report on Food, Nutrition, Physical Activity and the Prevention of Cancer1 and subsequent Continuous Update Project (CUP),2 the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) concluded that there was convincing evidence that breastfeeding decreases risk of maternal pre- and post-menopausal breast cancer, but also concluded that the evidence for a causal association between breastfeeding and ovarian cancer1,3 was only “limited-suggestive”. This latter conclusion was based on their meta-analysis of three cohort studies4–6 which showed a non-significant 10% reduction in risk for ever versus never breastfeeding (relative risk [RR] 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75–1.08).3 However, results of another recently published meta-analysis of three cohort studies5,7,8 (only one of which5 was included in the WCRF review) suggested that each additional month of breastfeeding was associated with a significant 1.02% reduction in risk of ovarian cancer.9 There are several biologically plausible mechanisms by which breastfeeding might reduce risk of breast and ovarian cancers. Lactation causes differentiation of breast epithelial cells so they may be less susceptible to neoplastic transformation;2 ductal epithelial cells also exfoliate during lactation potentially eliminating those with DNA-damage.2 Furthermore, breastfeeding suppresses gonadotrophins, thereby lowering endogenous oestrogen and progesterone, and these hormones are thought to play an important role in the development of breast neoplasia.2 For ovarian cancer, most data suggest that repeated exposure of the ovarian/fallopian tube epithelium (many ovarian cancers may actually arise from the fallopian tube) to the effects of recurrent ovulation and/or reproductive hormones have an important role in carcinogenesis. In suppressing gonadotrophins and ovulation, lactation should decrease exposure of the ovary/fallopian tube to most factors postulated to have a strong causative role in cancer development.10 Our aim was to estimate the proportion of cancers attributable to little or no breastfeeding by parous women. Based on our a priori decision to limit our primary analyses to exposure-cancer relationships that either the WCRF or International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) had concluded were causal, in our primary analysis we estimated only the proportion of breast cancers diagnosed in 2010 that were attributable to little or no breastfeeding by women who had children. On the assumption that further studies will likely strengthen the evidence for a protective causal association between breastfeeding and ovarian cancer, we have undertaken a supplementary analysis to calculate PAF estimates for ovarian cancer.

Objectives: To estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) and numbers of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to tobacco smoking, both personal and by a partner. Methods: We used a modified Peto-Lopez approach to calculate the difference between the number of lung cancer cases observed and the number expected assuming the entire population developed lung cancer at the same rate as never smokers. For cancers other than lung, we applied the standard PAF formula using relative risks from a large cohort and derived notional smoking prevalence. To estimate the PAF for partners' smoking, we used the standard formula incorporating the proportion of non-smoking Australians living with an ever-smoking partner and relative risks associated with partner smoking. Results: An estimated 15,525 (13%) cancers in Australia in 2010 were attributable to tobacco smoke, including 8,324 (81%) lung, 1,973 (59%) oral cavity and pharynx, 855 (60%) oesophagus and 951 (6%) colorectal cancers. Of these, 136 lung cancers in non-smokers were attributable to partner tobacco smoke. Conclusions: More than one in eight cancers in Australia is attributable to tobacco smoking and would be avoided if nobody smoked. Implications: Strategies to reduce the prevalence of smoking remain a high priority for cancer control.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the numbers and proportions of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to modifiable causal factors.METHODS: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancers associated with exposure to 13 causal factors using standard formulae incorporating exposure prevalence and relative risk data. We also calculated the potential impact of changing exposure to some factors.RESULTS: A total of 32% of all cancers diagnosed in Australia in 2010 (excluding keratinocyte cancers) were attributable to the 13 factors assessed (men 33%; women 31%). Leading factors were tobacco smoke (PAF all cancers: 13.4%), solar radiation (6.2%), inadequate diet (6.1%) and overweight/obesity (3.4%). Factors conferring highest PAFs differed by sex: highest PAFs for men were tobacco smoke (15.8%), solar radiation (7.1%) and alcohol (3.0%); while highest PAFs for women were tobacco smoke (10.1%), solar radiation (5.0%) and overweight/obesity (4.5%). Sites with the highest counts of potentially preventable cancers were lung (8,569), colorectal (7,404), melanoma of the skin (7,220) and breast (3,233).CONCLUSIONS: At least one in three cancers in Australia is attributable to exposure to known modifiable factors.IMPLICATIONS: Up to 37,000 cancers could be prevented in Australia each year if the population avoided exposure to 13 common factors known or strongly suspected to cause cancer.

Describes the approach underpinning a national project to estimate the numbers and proportions of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 that are attributable to modifiable causal factors. Abstract Objective: To describe the approach underpinning a national project to estimate the numbers and proportions of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 that are attributable to modifiable causal factors. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) (or prevented fraction) of cancers associated with exposure to causal (or preventive) factors using standard formulae. Where possible, we also estimated the potential impact on cancer incidence resulting from changes in prevalence of exposure. Analyses were restricted to factors declared causal by international agencies: tobacco smoke; alcohol; solar radiation; infectious agents; obesity; insufficient physical activity; insufficient intakes of fruits, vegetables and fibre; red and processed meat; menopausal hormone therapy (MHT); oral contraceptive pill (OCP); and insufficient breast feeding. Separately, we estimated numbers of cancers prevented by: aspirin; sunscreen; MHT; and OCP use. We discuss assumptions pertaining to latent periods between exposure and cancer onset, choices of prevalence data and risk estimates, and approaches to sensitivity analyses. Results: Numbers and population attributable fractions of cancer are presented in accompanying papers. Conclusions: This is the first systematic assessment of population attributable fractions of cancer in Australia.