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Background Although hospital readmission for heart failure (HF) is an issue for both men and women, little is known about differences in readmission rates by sex. Consequently, strategies to optimize readmission reduction programs and care strategies for women and men remain unclear. Our study aims were: (1) to identify studies examining readmission rates according to sex, and (2) to provide a qualitative overview of possible considerations for the impact of sex or gender. Methods We conducted a scoping review using the Arksey and O’Malley framework to include full text articles published between 2002 and 2017 drawn from multiple databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE), grey literature (i.e. National Technical information, Duck Duck Go), and expert consultation. Eligible articles included an index heart failure episode, readmission rates, and sex/gender-based analysis. Results The search generated 5887 articles, of which 746 underwent full abstract text consideration for eligibility. Of 164 eligible articles, 34 studies addressed the primary outcome, 103 studies considered sex differences as a secondary outcome and 25 studies stratified data for sex. Good inter-rater agreement was reached: 83% title/abstract; 88% full text; kappa: 0.69 (95%CI: 0.53–0.85). Twelve of 34 studies reported higher heart failure readmission rates for men and six studies reported higher heart failure readmission rates for women. Using non composite endpoints, five studies reported higher HF readmission rates for men compared to three studies reporting higher HF readmission rates for women. Overall, there was heterogeneity between studies when examined by sex, but one observation emerged that was related to the timing of readmissions. Readmission rates for men were higher when follow-up duration was longer than 1 year. Women were more likely to experience higher readmission rates than men when time to event was less than 1 year. Conclusions Future studies should consider different time horizons in their designs and avoid the use of composite measures, such as readmission rates combined with mortality, which are highly skewed by sex. Co-interventions and targeted post-discharge approaches with attention to sex would be of benefit to the HF patient population.

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) assays enhance detection of lower circulating troponin concentrations, but the impact on outcomes in clinical practice is unclear. Our objective was to compare outcomes of chest pain patients discharged from emergency departments (EDs) using hs-cTn and conventional troponin (cTn) assays.We conducted an observational study of chest pain patients aged 40-105 years who presented to an ED from April 1, 2013, to March 31, 2017, and were discharged home. We compared 30-day and 1-year outcomes of EDs that used hs-cTn versus cTn assays. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction or unstable angina. Comparisons were conducted with (1) no adjustment; (2) adjustment for demographic, socioeconomic, and hospital characteristics; and (3) full clinical adjustment.Among the 394,910 patients, 62,138 (15.7%) were evaluated at hs-cTn EDs and 332,772 (84.3%) were evaluated at cTn EDs. Patients discharged from hs-cTn EDs were less likely to have diabetes, hypertension, or prior heart disease. At 30 days, the unadjusted primary outcome rate was lower in hs-cTn EDs (0.9% vs 1.0%, P .001). The 30-day hazard ratios for the primary outcome were 0.84 (95% CI 0.77-0.92) for no adjustment and 0.98 (95% CI 0.88-1.08) for full adjustment. Over 1 year, patients discharged from hs-cTn EDs had significantly fewer primary outcomes (3.7% vs 4.1%, P .001) and lower hazard ratio (0.93; 95% CI 0.89-0.98) even after full adjustment.Hs-cTn testing was associated with a significantly lower adjusted hazard of myocardial infarction, angina, and all-cause hospitalization at 1 year but not 30 days.

Background There are limited data on the association of poverty with outcomes and care patterns after an atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosis in jurisdictions with universal healthcare. The Canadian province of Ontario provides publicly funded healthcare and prohibits private payment for medically necessary physician and in-hospital care. It also covers prescription medications for residents aged >65 years. Purpose Determine the association of neighbourhood-level poverty with outcomes and processes of care after AF diagnosis in older people within a universal healthcare system. Methods Using linked administrative databases, we conducted a population-based cohort study of community-dwelling adults aged ≥66 years who were newly diagnosed with AF in Ontario between April 1, 2007 and March 31, 2019. The primary exposure was material deprivation of patients' neighborhood of residence. This metric is derived using Canadian census data to estimate inability to access and attain basic material needs. Neighborhoods were categorized by quintile of material deprivation from Q1 (wealthiest) to Q5 (poorest). We used cause-specific hazards regression models to study the association of deprivation quintile with time to the following outcomes over one year from AF diagnosis: death, ischemic stroke, bleeding, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, cardiology services, and AF-specific treatments. Models accounted for clustering by region of residence and adjusted for age, sex, diabetes, HF, stroke/transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, hypertension, bleeding history, rural residence, renal function, and setting of AF diagnosis (hospital, emergency department [ED] or outpatient). Results We studied 350,353 patients with AF (median age 78 years, 48.9% female). People from neighborhoods in higher deprivation quintiles (poorer) were more likely to be diagnosed in hospital/ED than outpatient settings. Relative to people from the wealthiest neighbourhoods (Q1), patients in the poorest neighbourhoods (Q5) had higher prevalence of baseline hypertension, diabetes, HF, vascular disease and other comorbidities. In adjusted analyses (Figure), higher quintiles of neighborhood poverty were associated with greater rates of death, ischemic stroke, bleeding, and HF hospitalization, but lower rates of cardiology visits, cardiac testing, anticoagulation, anti-arrhythmic medications, cardioversion, or AF ablation. Conclusions In a setting of universal healthcare and prescription medication coverage, people living in poorer neighbourhoods had worse baseline health and higher rates of adverse outcomes after an AF diagnosis. Despite this, people in poorer neighbourhoods had less cardiology visits and diagnostic tests and were less likely to receive anticoagulation and rhythm control interventions. This shows that universal healthcare and medication coverage are insufficient to achieve equitable health care and outcomes for people with AF. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): This research was funded by a Canadian Institutes of Health Research Foundation grant; and is supported by ICES (formerly the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), which is funded by an annual grant from the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care (MOHLTC).

ObjectiveTo assess implementation and to identify barriers and facilitators to implementation, sustainability and scalability of an implementation strategy to provide lay health workers (LHWs) with the knowledge, skills and tools needed to implement an intervention to support patient tuberculosis (TB) treatment adherence.DesignMixed-methods design including a cluster randomised controlled trial and process evaluation informed by the RE-AIM framework.SettingForty-five health centres (HCs) in four districts in the south east zone of Malawi, who had an opportunity to receive cascade training.ParticipantsForty-five peer-trainers (PTs), 23 patients and 20 LHWs.InterventionImplementation strategy employing peer-led educational outreach, a clinical support tool and peer support network to implement a TB treatment adherence intervention.Outcome measuresProcess data were collected from study initiation to the end-of-study PT meeting, and included: LHW and patient interviews, quarterly PT meeting notes, training logs and study team observations and meeting notes. Data sources were first analysed in isolation, followed by method, data source and analyst triangulation. Analyses were conducted independently by two study team members, and themes revised through discussion and involvement of additional study team members as needed.ResultsForty-one HCs (91%) trained at least one LHW. Of 256 LHWs eligible to participate at study start 152 (59%) completed training, with the proportion trained per HC ranging from 0% to 100% at the end of initial cascade training. Lack of training incentives was the primary barrier to implementation, with intrinsic motivation to improve knowledge and skills, and to improve patient care and outcomes the primary facilitators of participation.ConclusionWe identified important challenges to and potential facilitators of implementation, scalability and sustainability, of the TB treatment adherence intervention. Findings provide guidance to scale-up, and use of the implementation strategies employed, to address LHW training and supervision in other areas.Trial registration numberNCT02533089.

[ ]there is good evidence that patients both underestimate and overestimate the severity of their illnesses;these decisions can be deadly in conditions like acute strokes, myocardial infarction, and sepsis [ ]the five-level Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS) used in Canadian EDs is not a scale for appropriateness;it simply sorts patients to determine priority of assessment based on a brief assessment Increasing same-day access to family physicians, improving urgent care models so they integrate with primary care and ensure continuity post-visit, and creating information systems that share real-time patient data among providers may help [ ]planned seasonal pop-up “fever clinics” that can be set during anticipated annual influenza/cough/cold outbreaks could all provide patients with alternatives that they could choose to use, while still enabling those patients to choose the ED when that is their best option [ ]intake areas or clinical decision units have been used successfully by many Canadian EDs

Background: Improved risk stratification of acute heart failure in the emergency department may inform physicians’ decisions regarding patient admission or early discharge disposition. We aimed to validate the previously-derived Emergency Heart failure Mortality Risk Grade for 7-day (EHMRG7) and 30-day (EHMRG30-ST) mortality. Methods: We conducted a multicenter, prospective validation study of patients with acute heart failure at 9 hospitals. We surveyed physicians for their estimates of 7-day mortality risk, obtained for each patient before knowledge of the model predictions, and compared these with EHMRG7 for discrimination and net reclassification improvement. We also prospectively examined discrimination of the EHMRG30-ST model, which incorporates all components of EHMRG7 as well as the presence of ST-depression on the 12-lead ECG. Results: We recruited 1983 patients seeking emergency department care for acute heart failure. Mortality rates at 7 days in the 5 risk groups (very low, low, intermediate, high, and very high risk) were 0%, 0%, 0.6%, 1.9%, and 3.9%, respectively. At 30 days, the corresponding mortality rates were 0%, 1.9%, 3.9%, 5.9%, and 14.3%. Compared with physician-estimated risk of 7-day mortality (PER7; c-statistic, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.64–0.78) there was improved discrimination with EHMRG7 (c-statistic, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.75–0.87; P =0.022 versus PER7) and with EHMRG7 combined with physicians’ estimates (c-statistic, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76–0.88; P =0.003 versus PER7). Model discrimination increased nonsignificantly by 0.014 (95% CI, −0.009–0.037) when physicians’ estimates combined with EHMRG7 were compared with EHMRG7 alone ( P =0.242). The c-statistic for EHMRG30-ST alone was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.73–0.81) and 30-day model discrimination increased nonsignificantly by addition of physician-estimated risk to 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73–0.82; P =0.187). Net reclassification improvement with EHMRG7 was 0.763 (95% CI, 0.465–1.062) when assessed continuously and 0.820 (0.560–1.080) using risk categories compared with PER7. Conclusions: A clinical model allowing simultaneous prediction of mortality at both 7 and 30 days identified acute heart failure patients with a low risk of events. Compared with physicians’ estimates, our multivariable model was better able to predict 7-day mortality and may guide clinical decisions. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT02634762.

BACKGROUND: The 1-year mortality rate in patients with heart failure who are discharged from an emergency department is 20%. We sought to determine whether early follow-up after discharge from the emergency department was associated with decreased mortality or subsequent admission to hospital. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study conducted in Ontario, Canada, included adult patients who were discharged from 1 of 163 emergency departments between April 2007 and March 2014 with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Using a propensity score–matched landmark analysis, we assessed follow-up in relation to mortality and admissions to hospital for cardiovascular conditions. RESULTS: Of 34 519 patients, 16 274 (47.1%) obtained follow-up care within 7 days and 28 846 (83.6%) within 30 days. Compared with follow-up between day 8 and 30, patients with follow-up care within 7 days had a lower rate of mortality over 1 year (hazard ratio [HR] 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87–0.97), and a reduced rate of admission to hospital over 90 days (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80–0.94) and 1 year (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.87–0.97); the mortality rate over 90 days in this group trended to a lower rate (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.10–1.00). Follow-up care within 30 days, compared with patients without 30-day follow-up, was associated with a reduction in 1-year mortality (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82–0.97) but not admission to hospital (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.94–1.10). In this group, there was a trend toward an increase in 90-day admission to hospital (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.00–1.29). INTERPRETATION: Follow-up care within 7 days of discharge from the emergency department was associated with lower rates of long-term mortality, as well as subsequent hospital admissions, and a trend to lower short-term mortality rates. Timely access to longitudinal care for patients with heart failure who are discharged from the emergency setting should be prioritized.

BackgroundA hospital-level pandemic response involves anticipating local surge in healthcare needs.MethodsWe developed a mechanistic transmission model to simulate a range of scenarios of COVID-19 spread in the Greater Toronto Area. We estimated healthcare needs against 2019 daily admissions using healthcare administrative data, and applied outputs to hospital-specific data on catchment, capacity, and baseline non-COVID admissions to estimate potential surge by day 90 at two hospitals (St. Michael’s Hospital [SMH] and St. Joseph’s Health Centre [SJHC]). We examined fast/large, default, and slow/small epidemics, wherein the default scenario (R0 2.4) resembled the early trajectory in the GTA.ResultsWithout further interventions, even a slow/small epidemic exceeded the city’s daily ICU capacity for patients without COVID-19. In a pessimistic default scenario, for SMH and SJHC to remain below their non-ICU bed capacity, they would need to reduce non-COVID inpatient care by 70% and 58% respectively. SMH would need to create 86 new ICU beds, while SJHC would need to reduce its ICU beds for non-COVID care by 72%. Uncertainty in local epidemiological features was more influential than uncertainty in clinical severity. If physical distancing reduces contacts by 20%, maximizing the diagnostic capacity or syndromic diagnoses at the community-level could avoid a surge at each hospital.InterpretationAs distribution of the city’s surge varies across hospitals over time, efforts are needed to plan and redistribute ICU care to where demand is expected. Hospital-level surge is based on community-level transmission, with community-level strategies key to mitigating each hospital’s surge.

The Emergency Department Return Visit Quality Program was launched in Ontario, Canada, to promote a culture of quality. It mandates the province's largest-volume emergency departments (EDs) to audit charts of patients who had a return visit leading to hospital admission, including some of their 72-hour all-cause return visits with admission and all of their 7-day ones with sentinel diagnoses (ie, acute myocardial infarction, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and pediatric sepsis), and submit their findings to a governmental agency. This provides an opportunity to identify possible adverse events and quality issues, which hospitals can then address through quality improvement initiatives. A group of emergency physicians with quality improvement expertise analyzed the submitted audits and accompanying narrative templates, using a general inductive approach to develop a novel classification of recurrent quality themes. Since the Return Visit Quality Program launched in 2016, 125,698 return visits with admission have been identified, representing 0.93% of the 86 participating EDs' 13,559,664 visits. Overall, participating hospitals have conducted 12,852 detailed chart audits, uncovering 3,010 (23.4%) adverse events/quality issues and undertaking hundreds of quality improvement provincewide projects as a result. The inductive analysis revealed 11 recurrent themes, classified into 3 groupings: patient characteristics (ie, patient risk profile and elder care), ED team actions or processes (ie, physician cognitive lapses, documentation, handover/communication between providers, radiology, vital signs, and high-risk medications or medication interactions), and health care system issues (ie, discharge planning/community follow-up, left against medical advice/left without being seen, and imaging/testing availability). The Return Visit Quality Program is the largest mandatory audit program for EDs and provides a novel approach to identify local adverse events/quality issues to target for improved patient safety and quality of care. It provides a blueprint for health system leaders to enable clinicians to develop an approach to organizational quality, as well as for teams to construct an audit system that yields defined issues amenable to improvement.

Background: Currently, 11% of patients seen in the emergency department for atrial fibrillation die within 1 year of the visit. Our objective was to examine the association of rapid (within 3 days), early (7 days), and basic (30 days) outpatient physician follow-up with short- and long-term outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation discharged from an emergency department. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included all adult patients discharged from one of the 163 emergency departments in Ontario, Canada with a primary diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, 2007 to 2014. We used a landmark analysis with propensity score matching, and logistic regression, to assess all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalizations at 1 year and 90 days, 30-day return emergency visits, and 1-year oral anticoagulation prescription fills. Results: In the 10 657 patients with rapid follow-up care who were propensity score matched to a patient with follow-up between days 4 and 7, the hazard of a return emergency visit was reduced by 11% (HR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.80–0.98]). It was not associated with mortality or hospitalization. In the 17 234 patients with early follow-up who were matched to a patient with care between days 8 and 30, the rate of 1-year mortality was 11% lower (HR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.81–0.97]) and 1-year hospitalization was 6% lower (HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89–1.00]). Relative to no 30-day care, basic follow-up care was associated with an increased hazard of 90-day hospitalization (HR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.12–1.56]) but was no longer associated with mortality. In patients with early follow-up, the odds of filling an oral anticoagulation prescription a year later were 64% higher than those without it (OR, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.54–1.78]). Conclusions: Compared with follow-up care between days 8 and 30, follow-up within a week after discharge from an emergency department with atrial fibrillation was associated with a reduction in the rate of death and hospitalization within 1 year, an association that was not present with 30-day follow-up.

Background There has been increased attention on reducing hospital readmission rates. However, little is known about any difference in readmission rates in heart failure by sex, although evidence exists demonstrating differences in the etiology of heart failure. As a result, strategies to optimize readmission reduction programs and care strategies for women and men remain unclear. Purpose (1) To identify studies examining readmission rates according to sex, and (2) to provide a qualitative overview of possible considerations for the impact of sex or gender. Methods A scoping protocol was developed using the Arksey and O'Malley framework and the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology. Our search strategy was reviewed according to the peer-review of electronic search strategy (PRESS) checklist. Full text articles published between 2002 and 2017 and drawn from multiple databases (i.e. MEDLINE, EMBASE), grey literature (i.e. National Technical Information, Duck Duck Go), and experts were consulted for additional articles. Screening criteria were established a priori. Once an acceptable inter-rater agreement was established at 80% by two independent reviewers, articles were screened for potential eligibility. A descriptive analytical method was employed to chart primary research articles. Articles were considered relevant if the cohort consisted of adult heart failure patients who were readmitted after an index hospitalization and a sex/gender-based analysis was performed. Results The literature search yielded 5887 articles, of which 746 underwent full text assessment for eligibility. Of 164 eligible articles, 34 studies addressed the primary outcome, 103 studies considered sex differences as a secondary outcome and 25 studies included disaggregated data for sex but no subsequent interaction was reported. Good inter-rater agreement was reached: 83% for title and abstract screening; 88% for full text review; kappa: 0.69 (95% CI: 0.526–0.851). Twelve of 34 studies included for the primary outcome reported higher readmission rates for men compared to five studies reporting higher readmission rates for women. However, there were differential readmission rates that were dependent on duration of follow-up. Women were more likely to experience higher readmission rates than men when time to event was less than one year. Readmission rates for men were higher when follow-up was longer than one year. Conclusion Sex differences in readmission rates were dependent on follow up time. Most studies used composite outcomes and had short times to event, which may mask underlying effects of sex on readmission. Acknowledgement/Funding Ontario SPOR Support Unit

Objective To compare performance and factors predicting failure to reach Ontario and Australian government time targets between a Canadian (Sunnybrook Hospital) and an Australian (Austin Health) academic tertiary-level hospitals in 2012, and to assess for change of factors and performance in 2016 between the same hospitals. Methods This was a retrospective, observational study of patient administrative data in two calendar years. The main outcome measure was reaching Ontario and Australian ED time targets for admissions, high and low urgency discharges. Secondary outcomes were factors predicting failure to reach these targets. Results Between 2012 and 2016, Sunnybrook and Austin experienced increased patient volume of 10.2% and 19.2%, respectively. Bed capacity decreased at Sunnybrook (-10.8%) but increased at the Austin (+30.3%). For both years, Austin failed to achieve the Australian time target, but succeeded for all Ontario targets except for low urgency discharges. Sunnybrook failed all targets irrespective of year. The top factors for failing Ontario ED length-of-stay targets for both hospitals in 2012 and 2016 were bed request greater than 6 h, access block greater than 1 h, use of cross-sectional imaging, consultation and waiting for the emergency physician greater than 2 h. Conclusion Austin outperformed Sunnybrook for Ontario and Australian government time targets. Both hospitals failed the Australian targets. Factors predicting failure to achieve targets were different between hospitals, but were mainly clinical resources. Sunnybrook focussed on increasing human resources. Austin focussed on increasing human resources, observation unit and hospital beds. Intrinsic hospital characteristics and infrastructure influenced target success.

Background: Chest pain is one of the most common reasons for emergency department (ED) visits in developed countries. Whether higher volume EDs have better outcomes, specifically for patients with chest pain, is unknown and pertinent. Methods and Results: We conducted a study using population-based data on 498 291 patients ≥40 years old, presenting to ED in Ontario, Canada from 2008 to 2014, with chest pain and were discharged after assessment. We evaluated processes of care after discharge from ED. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome. Hierarchical logistic regression models adjusting for potential confounding variables were used to evaluate the association of annual ED chest pain volume and outcome. We also determined if there was a volume threshold above which an increased ED volume was not associated with a lower adverse outcome. The mean age of our patients was 59 years, 46.7% were men, and 20% had diabetes mellitus. Patients discharged from higher volume EDs had higher rates of cardiologist consultations, cardiac medication use, and cardiac testing within 30 days of ED assessment. Higher ED volume was associated with significantly lower adjusted odds ratio for mortality or acute coronary syndrome (odds ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.82–0.92 per each unit increase in the log of volume) at 30 days and at 1 year (odds ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88–0.92). Once the annual ED chest pain volume reached 1400 cases (95% CI, 910–1900), an increase of annual chest pain volume of 100 was associated with relative decrease in the odds of the composite outcome at 30 days of Conclusions: Evaluations of chest pain in EDs with higher chest pain volume had lower rates of death or hospitalizations for acute coronary syndrome. There was a volume threshold above which an increase in volume was no longer associated with reduced outcomes.

IntroductionImproving the care and management of patients with diabetes, particularly those with extreme blood glucose and/or cholesterol levels, has been identified as a key priority area for healthcare in Ontario. A multi-organizational collaboration produces audit-and-feedback reports distributed to consenting primary care physicians across the province for quality improvement purposes. Objectives and ApproachWe examined the feasibility of linking the Ontario Laboratory Information System (OLIS), a large and nearly population-wide database of laboratory test results in Ontario, with the existing provincial audit-and-feedback reporting structure to integrate aggregated, physician-level measures of glycemic and cholesterol control among patients with diabetes. All Ontario residents alive on March 31, 2014, attached to a primary care physician, and diagnosed with diabetes for at least two years were included. These patients were linked to OLIS to extract laboratory test orders and results for glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C) and low-density lipoproteins (LDL) between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2014. ResultsThere were 1,108,530 diabetes patients included who were assigned to 10,085 primary care physicians. During fiscal year (FY) 2013, 70%, 64%, and 59% of diabetes patients were tested for HbA1C, LDL, and both measures, respectively. Among the 648,238 diabetes patients with at least one of each test in FY2013, 13% had a HbA1C test exceeding a threshold of 9%, 4% had a LDL test exceeding a threshold of 4 mmol/L, and 0.8% exceeded both thresholds. At the physician-level, the median (Interquartile Range) proportions of diabetes patients exceeding the testing thresholds were 12% (9%-16%) for HbA1c and 4% (2%-6%) for LDL. In a multilevel logistic regression model, there was significant between-physician variability in the proportions of diabetes patients exceeding the HbA1C (p Conclusion/ImplicationsWe developed a mechanism for integrating population-wide, clinical laboratory test results into physician audit-and-feedback reports to improve diabetes care in Ontario. Significant variation observed in the aggregated, physician-level proportions of diabetes patients testing above clinical thresholds for HbA1C and LDL highlights the importance of reporting such information to physicians.

IntroductionThe Applied Health Research Question (AHRQ) portfolio is an initiative funded by the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, leveraging the linked data and scientific expertise at ICES to answer questions that directly impact healthcare policy, planning or practice. Objectives and ApproachThe objective of this project was to evaluate historical patterns of emergency department (ED) use to better plan for a new emergency Department in Kingston and to better understand the factors contributing to increasing ED utilization. Emergency departments across Ontario continue to see consistent increases in volume at rates exceeding expected volume growth due to population growth alone. Some hospitals across the province observe significantly higher volume increases compared to the provincial average. ResultsFrom 2006/07 to 2016/17, rate and volume of emergency department visits in Ontario increased 8.82% and 19.87% respectively. Throughout the same period, emergency department visit rate and volume at Kingston General Hospital increased 20.70%, and 27.2%. Using historical data and projected population growth by age and sex, we were able to estimate that emergency department volume would increase at least 11.94% by 2025 due to estimated shifts in population size and distribution (by age and sex) alone. From 2006/07 to 2016/17, the greatest rate of increase in reason for ED visits was mental/behavioral problems. Throughout this period the increase in volume and rate of ED visits due to mental/behavioural problems was 274.46% and 259.59% respectively. Conclusion/ImplicationsPopulation-specific volume projections and historical trends in ED use can be utilized for planning ED operations to improve efficiency and patient care quality. This has been used to inform the redesign of the ED at the Kingston Health Sciences Centre to ensure it will meet the needs of the community.

IntroductionAutism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder (NDD) that presents with a high degree of heterogeneity (e.g., co-occurrence of other NDDs and other co-morbid conditions), contributing to differential health system needs. Genetics are known to play an important role in ASD and may be associated with different disease trajectories. Objectives and ApproachIn this proof of principle project, our objective is to link >2,200 children with a confirmed diagnosis of a NDD from the Province of Ontario Neurodevelopmental (POND) Study to administrative health data and electronic medical record (EMR) data in order to identify subgroups of ASD with unique health system trajectories. POND includes detailed phenotype and whole genome sequencing (WGS) data. Identified subgroups will be characterized based on clinical phenotype and genetics. To meet this goal, consideration of WGS-specific privacy and data issues is needed to implement processes which are above and beyond traditional requirements for analyzing individual-level administrative health data. ResultsLinkage of WGS data with administrative health data is an emerging area of research. As such it has presented a number of initial challenges for our study of ASD. Privacy concerns surrounding the use of WGS data and rare-variant analysis are of particular importance. Practical issues required the need for analysts with expertise in administrative data, EMR data and genetic analyses, and specialized software and sufficient processing power to analyze WGS data. Transdisciplinary discussions of the scope and significance of research questions addressed through this linkage were crucial. The identification of genetic determinants of phenotypes and trajectories in ASD could support targeted early interventions; EMR linkage may inform algorithms to identify ASD in broader populations. These approaches could improve both patient outcome and family experience. Conclusion/ImplicationsAs the cost of genetic sequencing decreases, WGS data will become part of the routine clinical management of patients. Linkage of WGS, EMR and administrative data has tremendous potential that has largely not been realized; including population-level ASD research to improve our ability to predict long-term outcomes associated with ASD.

Background We sought to determine whether patients seen in hospitals who had reduced overall emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS) in the 2 years following the introduction of the Ontario Emergency Room Wait Time Strategy were more likely to experience improvements in other measures of ED quality of care for three important conditions. Methods Retrospective medical record review using difference-in-differences analysis to compare changes in performance on quality indicators over the 3-year period between 11 Ontario hospitals where the median ED LOS had improved from fiscal year 2008 to 2010 and 13 matched sites where ED LOS was unchanged or worsened. Patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), asthma and paediatric and adult upper limb fractures in these hospitals in 2008 and 2010 were evaluated with respect to 18 quality indicators reflecting timeliness and safety/effectiveness of care in the ED. In a secondary analysis, we examined shift-level ED crowding at the time of the patient visit and performance on the quality indicators. Results Median ED LOS improved by up to 26% (63 min) from 2008 to 2010 in the improved hospitals, and worsened by up to 47% (91 min) in the unimproved sites. We abstracted 4319 and 4498 charts from improved and unimproved hospitals, respectively. Improvement in a hospital9s overall median ED LOS from 2008 to 2010 was not associated with a change in any of the other ED quality indicators over the same time period. In our secondary analysis, shift-level crowding was associated only with indicators that reflected timeliness of care. During less crowded shifts, patients with AMI were more likely to be reperfused within target intervals (rate ratio 1.59, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.45), patients with asthma more often received timely administration of steroids (rate ratio 1.88, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.24) and beta-agonists (rate ratio 1.47, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.74), and adult (but not paediatric) patients with fracture were more likely to receive analgesia or splinting within an hour (rate ratio 1.66, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.26). Conclusions These results suggest that a policy approach that targets only reductions in ED LOS is not associated with broader improvements in selected quality measures. At the same time, there is no evidence that efforts to address crowding have a detrimental effect on quality of care.

Background: Many patients with chest pain do not receive follow-up from a physician after discharge from the emergency department despite significant survival benefit associated with follow-up care. Our objective was to evaluate factors associated with physician follow-up to understand this gap in practice. Methods: We conducted an observational study involving patients at high risk who were assessed for chest pain and discharged from an emergency department in Ontario between April 2004 and March 2010. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the association of clinical and nonclinical characteristics with physician follow-up. Results: We identified 56 767 patients, of whom 25.1% did not receive any follow-up by a physician, 69.0% were seen by their primary care physician, and 17.3% were seen by a cardiologist within 30 days. Patients who had medical comorbidities and cardiac conditions such as myocardial infarction or heart failure were less likely to have follow-up. In contrast, a previous visit to a primary care physician was associated with the highest odds of having physician follow-up (odds ratio [OR] 6.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.91–7.01). Similarly, a previous visit to a cardiologist was strongly associated with follow-up by a cardiologist (OR 3.01, 95% CI 2.85–3.17). Patients evaluated in emergency departments with the highest tertile of chest pain volume were more likely to receive follow-up from any physician (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.31–1.77) and from a cardiologist (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.61–2.57). Interpretation: Nonclinical factors are strongly associated with physician follow-up for patients with chest pain after discharge from the emergency department. However, patients with comorbidities and at higher risk for future adverse events are less likely to receive follow-up care.

ObjectivePatients with cardiovascular diseases are common in the emergency department (ED), and continuity of care following that visit is needed to ensure that they receive evidence-based diagnostic tests and therapy. We examined the frequency of follow-up care after discharge from an ED with a new diagnosis of one of three cardiovascular diseases.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with a new diagnosis of heart failure, atrial fibrillation, or hypertension, who were discharged from 157 non-pediatric EDs in Ontario, Canada, between April 2007 and March 2014. We determined the frequency of follow-up care with a family physician, cardiologist, or internist within seven and 30 days, and assessed the association of patient, emergency physician, and family physician characteristics with obtaining follow-up care using cause-specific hazard modeling.ResultsThere were 41,485 qualifying ED visits. Just under half (47.0%) had follow-up care within seven days, with 78.7% seen by 30 days. Patients with serious comorbidities (renal failure, dementia, COPD, stroke, coronary artery disease, and cancer) had a lower adjusted hazard of obtaining 7-day follow-up care (HRs 0.77-0.95) and 30-day follow-up care (HR 0.76-0.95). The only emergency physician characteristic associated with follow-up care was 5-year emergency medicine specialty training (HR 1.11). Compared to those whose family physician was remunerated via a primarily fee-for-service model, patients were less likely to obtain 7-day follow-up care if their family physician was remunerated via three types of capitation models (HR 0.72, 0.81, 0.85) or via traditional fee-for-service (HR 0.91). Findings were similar for 30-day follow-up care.ConclusionsOnly half of patients discharged from an ED with a new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and hypertension were seen within a week of being discharged. Patients with significant comorbidities were less likely to obtain follow-up care, as were those with a family physician who was remunerated via primarily capitation methods.

Background: Early detection of patient deterioration is a key element of patient safety as it allows timely clinical intervention and potential rescue, thus reducing the risks of serious patient safety incidents. Longitudinal patient monitoring systems have been widely recommended for use to detect clinical deterioration. However, there is conflicting evidence on whether they improve patient outcomes. This may in part be related to variation in the rigour with which they are implemented and evaluated. This study aims to evaluate the implementation and effectiveness of a longitudinal patient monitoring system designed for adult patients in the unique environment of the Emergency Department (ED). Methods: A novel participatory action research (PAR) approach is taken where socio-technical systems (STS) theory and analysis informs the implementation through the improvement methodology of ‘Plan Do Study Act’ (PDSA) cycles. We hypothesise that conducting an STS analysis of the ED before beginning the PDSA cycles will provide for a much richer understanding of the current situation and possible challenges to implementing the ED-specific longitudinal patient monitoring system. This methodology will enable both a process and an outcome evaluation of implementing the ED-specific longitudinal patient monitoring system. Process evaluations can help distinguish between interventions that have inherent faults and those that are badly executed. Discussion: Over 1.2 million patients attend EDs annually in Ireland; the successful implementation of an ED-specific longitudinal patient monitoring system has the potential to affect the care of a significant number of such patients. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study combining PAR, STS and multiple PDSA cycles to evaluate the implementation of an ED-specific longitudinal patient monitoring system and to determine (through process and outcome evaluation) whether this system can significantly improve patient outcomes by early detection and appropriate intervention for patients at risk of clinical deterioration.

Background Chest pain is one of the most common reasons for presentation to the emergency department (ED); however, there is a paucity of data evaluating the impact of physician follow-up and subsequent management. To evaluate the impact of physician follow-up for low-risk chest pain patients after ED assessment. Methods We performed a retrospective observational study of low-risk chest pain patients who were assessed and discharged home from an Ontario ED. Low risk was defined as ≥50 years of age and no diabetes or preexisting cardiovascular disease. Follow-up within 30 days was stratified as (a) no physician, (b) primary care physician (PCP) alone, (c) PCP with cardiologist, and (d) cardiologist alone. The primary outcome was death or myocardial infarction (MI) at 1 year. Results Among 216,527 patients, 29% had no-physician, 60% had PCP-alone, 8% had PCP with cardiologist, and 4% had cardiologist-alone follow-up after ED discharge. The mean age of the study cohort was 64.2 years, and 42% of the patients were male. After adjusting for important differences in baseline characteristics between physician follow-up groups, the adjusted hazard ratios for death or MI were 1.07 (95% CI 1.00-1.14) for the PCP group, 0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.91) for the PCP with cardiologist group, and 0.87 (95% CI 0.74-1.02) for the cardiologist alone group, as compared with patients who had no follow-up. Conclusion In this cohort of low-risk patients who presented to an ED with chest pain, follow-up with a PCP and cardiologist was associated with significantly reduced risk of death or MI at 1 year.

Clinical decision instruments exist for a myriad of disease states as they present to the emergency department (ED), including cervical spine imaging rules,1,2 instruments that estimate the risk of venous thromboembolism,3 and the mortality risk associated with pneumonia,4 to name a few. As the second most common reason to visit an ED,5 chest pain has been the target of decades of clinical decision instrument research efforts. Article see p 195 Given that less than a quarter of these patients are suffering from an acute coronary syndrome,6 multiple groups have attempted to derive a highly sensitive decision instrument that identifies essentially all the patients with an acute coronary syndrome, while at the same time facilitating the safe, early discharge of a cohort of low-risk patients.7–10 Emergency physicians have identified 1% as the maximum miss rate that would acceptable to them in order to actually use such a tool in the clinical setting.11,12 A tool that has a sensitivity with a lower confidence interval of 99%, but still has a high enough specificity to identify a substantial proportion of chest pain patients for ED discharge would be the holy grail of clinical decision instruments. Early instruments had poor clinical uptake because of unacceptably low sensitivity: these include the Goldman Risk score, acute cardiac ischemia time–insensitive predictive instrument (ACI-TIPI), the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score, and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE).13–16 More recently, the North American Chest Pain Rule, the Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol to Assess Patients With Chest Pain Symptoms Using Contemporary Troponins (ADAPT) study, and the HEART (History, Electrocardiogram, Age, Risk factors, Troponin) Pathway, among others, have incorporated conventional troponins into their clinical decision instruments.7,8,10 The North …

Background— Assessment of chest pain is one of the most common reasons for emergency department visits in developed countries. Although guidelines recommend primary care physician (PCP) follow-up for patients who are subsequently discharged, little is known about the relationship between physician follow-up and clinical outcomes. Methods and Results— An observational study was conducted on patients with higher baseline risk, defined as having diabetes mellitus or established cardiovascular disease, who were evaluated for chest pain, discharged, and without adverse clinical outcomes for 30 days in Ontario from 2004 to 2010. Multivariable proportional hazard models were constructed to adjust for potential confounding between physician groups (cardiologist, PCP, or none). Among 56767 included patients, 17% were evaluated by cardiologists, 58% were evaluated by PCPs alone, and 25% had no physician follow-up. The mean age was 66±15 years, and 53% were male. The highest rates of diagnostic testing, medical therapy, and coronary revascularization were seen among patients treated by cardiologists. At 1 year, the rate of death or MI was 5.5% (95% confidence interval, 5.0–5.9) in the cardiology group, 7.7% (95% confidence interval, 7.4–7.9) in the PCP group, and 8.6% (95% confidence interval, 8.2–9.1) in the no-physician group. After adjustment, cardiologist follow-up was associated with significantly lower adjusted hazard ratio of death or MI compared with PCP (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.78–0.92) and no physician (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.71–0.88) follow-up. Conclusions— Among patients with higher baseline cardiovascular risk who were discharged from the emergency department after evaluation for chest pain in Ontario, follow-up with a cardiologist was associated with a decreased risk of all-cause mortality or hospitalization for MI at 1 year compared with follow-up with a PCP or no physician follow-up.

Background and objectives Patients discharged home from an emergency department with AKI are not well described. This study describes their characteristics and outcomes and compares these outcomes to two referent groups. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study in Ontario, Canada from 2003 to 2012 of 6346 patients aged ≥40 years who were discharged from the emergency department with AKI (defined using serum creatinine values). We analyzed the risk of all-cause mortality, receipt of acute dialysis, and hospitalization within 30 days after discharge. We used propensity score methods to compare all-cause mortality to two referent groups. We matched 4379 discharged patients to 4379 patients who were hospitalized from the emergency department with similar AKI stage. We also matched 6188 discharged patients to 6188 patients who were discharged home from the emergency department with no AKI. Results There were 6346 emergency department discharges with AKI. The mean age was 69 years and 6012 (95%) had stage 1, 290 (5%) had stage 2, and 44 (0.7%) had stage 3 AKI. Within 30 days, 149 (2%) (AKI stage 1: 127 [2%]; stage 2: 15 [5%]; stage 3: seven [16%]) died, 22 (0.3%) received acute dialysis, and 1032 (16%) were hospitalized. An emergency department discharge versus hospitalization with AKI was associated with lower mortality (3% versus 12%; relative risk, 0.3; 95% confidence interval, 0.2 to 0.3). An emergency department discharge with AKI versus no AKI was associated with higher mortality (2% versus 1%; relative risk, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 2.0). Conclusions Patients discharged home from the emergency department with AKI are at risk of poor 30-day outcomes. A better understanding of care in this at-risk population is warranted, as are testing strategies to improve care.

The Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) scale, derived in 86 Canadian emergency departments (EDs), stratifies patients with acute-decompensated heart failure (ADHF) according to their 7-day mortality risk. We evaluated its external validity in a Spanish cohort.We applied the EHMRG scale to ADHF patients consecutively included in the Epidemiology of Acute Heart Failure in Emergency departments (EAHFE) registry (29 Spanish EDs) and measured its performance. Patients were distributed into quintiles according to the original and their self-defined score cutoffs. The 7-day mortality rates were compared internally among different categories and with categories of Canadian cohorts.The EAHFE group [n: 1553 patients; 80 (10) years; 55.6% women] had a 5.5% 7-day mortality rate and the EHMRG scale c-statistic was 0.741 (95% confidence interval: 0.688-0.793) compared with 0.807 (0.761-0.842) and 0.804 (0.763-0.840) obtained in the Canadian derivation and validation cohorts. The mortality rate of the EAHFE group mortality increased progressively as the quintile categories increased using intervals defined by either the Canadian or the Spanish EHMRG score cutoffs, although with more regular increments with the EAHFE-defined intervals; using the latter, patients at quintiles 2, 3, 4, 5a and 5b had (compared with quintile 1) odds ratios of 1.77, 3.36, 4.44, 9.39 and 16.19, respectively.The EHMRG scale stratified risk in an ADHF cohort that included both palliative and nonpalliative patients in Spanish EDs, showing an extrapolation to a higher mortality risk cohort than the original derivation sample. Stratification improved when the score was recalibrated in the Spanish cohort.

Background Patients with heart failure ( HF ) presenting to the emergency department ( ED ) can be admitted to care settings of different intensity, where the intensive care unit ( ICU ) is the highest intensity, ward admission is intermediate intensity, and those discharged home are of lowest intensity. Despite the costs associated with higher‐intensity care, little is known about disposition decisions and outcomes of HF patients treated in different care settings. Methods and Results We identified predictors of ICU or ward admission and determined whether survival differs in patients admitted to higher‐intensity versus lower‐intensity care settings (ie, ICU vs ward, or ward vs ED ‐discharged). Among 9054 patients (median, 78 years; 51% men) presenting to an ED in Ontario, Canada, 1163 were ICU ‐admitted, 5240 ward‐admitted, and 2651 were ED ‐discharged. Predictors of ICU (vs ward) admission included: use of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (adjusted odds ratio [ OR ], 2.01; 95% CI , 1.36–2.98), higher respiratory rate ( OR , 1.10 per 5 breaths/min; 95% CI , 1.05–1.15), and lower oxygen saturation ( OR , 0.90 per 5%; 95% CI , 0.86–0.94; all P ED ‐discharged were similar. Propensity‐matched analysis comparing lower‐risk ICU to ward‐admitted patients demonstrated a nonsignificant trend at 100 days (relative risk [ RR ], 0.69; 95% CI , 0.43–1.10; P =0.148). At 1 year, however, survival was higher among those initially admitted to ICU ( RR , 0.68; 95% CI , 0.49–0.94; P =0.022). There was no survival difference among low‐risk ward‐admitted versus ED ‐discharged patients. Conclusions Respiratory factors were associated with admission to higher‐intensity settings. There was no difference in early survival between some lower‐risk patients admitted to higher‐intensity units compared to those treated in lower‐intensity settings.

It has been suggested that patients with mental illness wait longer for care than other patients in the emergency department. We determined wait times for patients with and without mental health diagnoses during crowded and noncrowded periods in the emergency department.We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort analysis of adults seen in 155 emergency departments in Ontario between April 2007 and March 2009. We compared wait times and triage scores for patients with mental illness to those for all other patients who presented to the emergency department during the study period.The patients with mental illness (n = 51 381) received higher priority triage scores than other patients, regardless of crowding. The time to assessment by a physician was longer overall for patients with mental illness than for other patients (median 82, interquartile range [IQR] 41-147 min v. median 75 [IQR 36-140] min; p0.001). The median time from the decision to admit the patient to hospital to ward transfer was markedly shorter for patients with mental illness than for other patients (median 74 [IQR 15-215] min v. median 152 [IQR 45-605] min; p0.001). After adjustment for other variables, patients with mental illness waited 10 minutes longer to see a physician compared with other patients during noncrowded periods (95% confidence interval [CI] 8 to 11), but they waited significantly less time than other patients as crowding increased (mild crowding: -14 [95% CI -12 to -15] min; moderate crowding: -38 [95% CI -35 to -42] min; severe crowding: -48 [95% CI -39 to -56] min; p0.001).Patients with mental illness were triaged appropriately in Ontario's emergency departments. These patients waited less time than other patients to see a physician under crowded conditions and only slightly longer under noncrowded conditions.

Acute decompensated heart failure is a common reason for presentation to the emergency department and is associated with high rates of admission to hospital. Distinguishing between higher-risk patients needing hospitalization and lower-risk patients suitable for discharge home is important to optimize both cost-effectiveness and clinical outcomes. However, this can be challenging and few validated risk stratification tools currently exist to help clinicians. Some prognostic variables predict risks broadly in those who are admitted or discharged from the emergency department. Risk stratification methods such as the Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade and Acute Heart Failure Index clinical decision support tools, which utilize many of these predictors, have been found to be accurate in identifying low-risk patients. The use of observation units may also be a cost-effective adjunctive strategy that can assist in determining disposition from the emergency department.

Background Maternal placental syndromes (MPS)—gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia and placental abruption/infarction—are more prevalent in women with features of the metabolic syndrome (MetSyn). Both MPS and the MetSyn predispose to left ventricular impairment and sympathetic dominance after delivery. Whether this translates into a higher risk of heart failure (HF) and cardiac dysrhythmias is not known. Objective To determine the risk of new onset of HF and dysrhythmias among women after a prior MPS-affected pregnancy. Methods A retrospective cohort study was carried out of 1 130 764 individual women with a delivery in Ontario between 1992 and 2009, excluding those with cardiac or thyroid disease 1 year before delivery. The risk of a composite outcome of a hospitalisation for HF or an atrial or ventricular dysrhythmia was compared in women with and without MPS, starting 1 year after delivery. Results 75 242 individuals (6.7%) experienced a MPS. After a median duration of 7.8 years, the composite outcome occurred in 148 women with MPS (2.54 per 10 000 person-years) and 1062 women without MPS (1.28 per 10 000 person-years) (crude HR=2.00, 95% CI 1.68 to 2.38). The mean age at composite outcome was 37.8 years. The HR was 1.61 (95% CI 1.35 to 1.91) after adjustment for demographic characteristics, diabetes, obesity, dyslipidaemia and drug dependence or tobacco use, as well as coronary artery disease or thyroid disease >1 year after delivery. The adjusted HRs were minimally reduced by further adjusting for chronic hypertension (1.51, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.80) and were higher in women with MPS plus preterm delivery and poor fetal growth (2.42, 95% CI 1.25 to 4.67). Conclusions Women with MPS are at higher risk of premature HF and dysrhythmias, especially when perinatal morbidity is present.

Objective Overcrowding is an important issue facing many emergency departments (EDs). Access block (admitted patients occupying ED stretchers) is a leading contributor, and expeditious placement of admitted patients is an area of research interest. This review examined the effectiveness of full capacity protocols (FCPs) on mitigating ED overcrowding. Methods A comprehensive literature search was undertaken to identify potentially relevant studies between 1966 and 2009. Intervention studies in which an FCP was used to influence ED/hospital length of stay and ED/hospital access block were included as a single program or part of a systemwide intervention. Two reviewers independently assessed citation relevance, inclusion, study quality, and extracted data; because of limited data, pooling was not undertaken. Results From 14 446 potentially relevant studies, 2 abstracts from the same comparative study were included. From 29 studies on systemwide intervention, 4 contained an FCP component. The included study was a single-center ED study using a before-after design; its methodological quality was rated as weak. One of the abstracts reported that an FCP was associated with less ED length of stay (5-hour reduction) when compared with the comparison period; the other reported that an FCP decreased ED and hospital access block (28% and 37% reduction, respectively). The ED triggers, format, and implementation of FCP protocols varied widely. Conclusion Although FCPs may be a promising alternative for overcrowded EDs, the available evidence upon which to support implementation of an FCP is limited. Additional efforts are required to improve the outcome reporting of FCP research using high-quality research methods.

Background Heart failure (HF) is one of the leading reasons for emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalization. However, externally validated risk algorithms for acute prognostication of heart failure patients are not available. Thus, many low-risk patients are hospitalized and some high-risk patients are discharged home, which, in some cases, may lead to death. Objectives The first objective of the ACUTE study is to perform a prospective validation of the Emergency Heart failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG), which is a risk score derived to predict 7-day mortality in the ED setting. The second objective is to independently validate the 30-day model extension of the risk score (EHMRG30-ST) in the same cohort. Study design Patients with HF presenting to the ED will be recruited with a waiver of informed consent as a minimal risk study. The ED physician will calculate the EHMRG 7-day risk score, but treatment decisions will not be influenced by the predictive models. Follow-up will be obtained using probabilistic linkage with the Registered Persons Database of vital statistics, whereby deaths will be ascertained. We will examine mortality rates according to EHMRG and EHMRG30-ST algorithms. We will also compare physician-judged risk estimates, based on clinical judgment alone, with the EHMRG score. Conclusion The ACUTE study will determine if a retrospectively derived algorithm for simultaneous estimation of 7-day and 30-day mortality risk can accurately identify low- and high-risk patients with acute HF and improve upon physician-judged risk estimation.

There is increasing concern that medical care is of variable quality, with variable outcomes, safety, costs and experience for patients. Despite substantial efforts to improve patient safety, some studies suggest little evidence of reductions in adverse events. Furthermore, there is limited agreement about what outcomes are expected and whether increased expenditure results in a real improvement in outcome or experience. In emergency medicine, many countries have developed specific indicators to help drive improvements in patient care. Most of these are time based and there is a lack of consensus regarding which indicators are high priority and what an appropriate framework for measuring quality should look like.

Objective:The American Heart Association (AHA) recommends a benchmark door-to-electrocardiogram (ECG) time of 10 minutes for acute myocardial infarction patients, but this is based on expert opinion (level of evidence C). We sought to establish an evidence-based benchmark door-to-ECG time.Methods:This retrospective cohort study used a population-based sample of patients who suffered an ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in Ontario between 1999 and 2001. Using cubic smoothing splines, we described (1) the relationship between door-to-ECG time and ECG-to-needle time and (2) the proportion of STEMI patients who met the benchmark door-to-needle time of 30 minutes based on their door-to-ECG time. We hypothesized nonlinear relationships and sought to identify an inflection point in the latter curve that would define the most efficient (benefit the greatest number of patients) door-to-ECG time.Results:In 2,961 STEMI patients, the median door-to-ECG and ECG-to-needle times were 8.0 and 27.0 minutes, respectively. There was a linear increase in ECG-to-needle time as the door-to-ECG time increased, up to approximately 30 minutes, after which the ECG-to-needle time remained constant at 53 minutes. The inflection point in the probability of achieving the benchmark door-to-needle time occurred at 4 minutes, after which it decreased linearly, with every minute of door-to-ECG time decreasing the average probability of achievement by 2.2%.Conclusions:Hospitals that are not meeting benchmark reperfusion times may improve performance by decreasing door-to-ECG times, even if they are meeting the current AHA benchmark door-to-ECG time. The highest probability of meeting the reperfusion target time for fibrinolytic administration is associated with a door-to-ECG time of 4 minutes or less.

Background Patients with acute myocardial infarction may have worse outcomes if they also have a history of depression. The early management of acute myocardial infarction is known to influence outcomes, and patients with a coexisting history of depression may be treated differently in the emergency department than those without one. Our goal was to determine whether having a charted history of depression was associated with a lower-priority emergency department triage score and worse performance on quality-of-care indices. Methods We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort analysis involving patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted to 96 acute care hospitals in the province of Ontario from April 2004 to March 2005. We calculated the adjusted odds of low-priority triage (Canadian Emergency Department Triage and Acuity Scale score of 3, 4 or 5) for patients with acute myocardial infarction who had a charted history of depression. We compared these odds with those for patients having a charted history of asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Secondary outcome measures were the odds of meeting benchmark door-to-electrocardiogram, door-to-needle and door-to-balloon times. Results Of 6784 patients with acute myocardial infarction, 680 (10.0%) had a past medical history of depression documented in their chart. Of these patients, 39.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 35.3%–42.9%) were assigned a low-priority triage score, as compared with 32.7% (95% CI 31.5%–33.9%) of those without a charted history of depression. The adjusted odds of receiving a low-priority triage score with a charted history of depression were 1.26 ( p = 0.01) versus 0.88 ( p = 0.23) with asthma and 1.12 ( p = 0.24) with COPD. For patients with a charted history of depression, the median door-to-electrocardiogram time was 20.0 minutes (v. 17.0 min for the rest of the cohort), median door-to-needle time was 53.0 (v. 37.0) minutes, and median door-to-balloon time was 251.0 (v. 110.0) minutes. The adjusted odds of missing the benchmark time with a charted history of depression were 1.39 ( p p = 0.047) for door-to-needle time and 9.12 ( p = 0.019) for door-to-balloon time. Interpretation Patients with acute myocardial infarction who had a charted history of depression were more likely to receive a low-priority emergency department triage score than those with other comorbidities and to have worse associated performance on quality indicators in acute myocardial infarction care.

Is inadequate follow-up after emergency department (ED) visits a common problem? In this article, the author outlines the results of studies that examined patients discharged from the ED who required aftercare. Whether or not these patients received the follow-up care and the effect this had on their risks for further complications are discussed.

Background— The type of outpatient physician care after an emergency department visit for heart failure may affect patients' outcomes. Methods and Results— Using the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System, we examined the care and outcomes of heart failure patients who visited and were discharged from the emergency department in Ontario, Canada (April 2004 to March 2007). Early collaborative care by a cardiologist and primary care (PC) physician within 30 days after discharge was compared with PC alone. Care for 10 599 patients (age, 74.9±11.9 years; 50.2% male) was provided by PC alone (n=6596), cardiologist alone (n=535), or concurrently by both cardiologist and PC (n=1478); 1990 did not visit a physician. Collaborative care patients were more likely to undergo assessment of left ventricular function (57.4% versus 28.7%), noninvasive stress testing (20.1% versus 7.8%), and cardiac catheterization (11.6% versus 2.7%) compared with PC. Drug prescriptions (patients ≥65 years of age) demonstrated higher use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (58.8% versus 54.6%), angiotensin receptor blockers (22.7% versus 18.1%), β-adrenoceptor antagonists (63.4% versus 48.0%), loop diuretics (84.2% versus 79.6%), metolazone (4.8% versus 3.4%), and spironolactone (19.8% versus 12.7%) within 100 days after emergency department discharge for collaborative care compared with PC. In a propensity-matched model, mortality was lower with PC compared with no physician visit (hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.87; P P =0.045). Sole cardiology care conferred a trend to increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.41 versus collaborative care; 95% confidence interval, 0.98 to 2.03; P =0.067). Conclusions— Early collaborative heart failure care was associated with increased use of drug therapies and cardiovascular diagnostic tests and better outcomes compared with PC alone.

Background: The Canadian CT Head Rule was developed to allow physicians to be more selective when ordering computed tomography (CT) imaging for patients with minor head injury. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of implementing this validated decision rule at multiple emergency departments. Methods: We conducted a matched-pair cluster-randomized trial that compared the outcomes of 4531 patients with minor head injury during two 12-month periods (before and after) at hospital emergency departments in Canada, six of which were randomly allocated as intervention sites and six as control sites. At the intervention sites, active strategies, including education, changes to policy and real-time reminders on radiologic requisitions were used to implement the Canadian CT Head Rule. The main outcome measure was referral for CT scan of the head. Results: Baseline characteristics of patients were similar when comparing control to intervention sites. At the intervention sites, the proportion of patients referred for CT imaging increased from the “before” period (62.8%) to the “after” period (76.2%) (difference +13.3%, 95% CI 9.7%–17.0%). At the control sites, the proportion of CT imaging usage also increased, from 67.5% to 74.1% (difference +6.7%, 95% CI 2.6%–10.8%). The change in mean imaging rates from the “before” period to the “after” period for intervention versus control hospitals was not significant ( p = 0.16). There were no missed brain injuries or adverse outcomes. Interpretation: Our knowledge–translation-based trial of the Canadian CT Head Rule did not reduce rates of CT imaging in Canadian emergency departments. Future studies should identify strategies to deal with barriers to implementation of this decision rule and explore more effective approaches to knowledge translation. (ClinicalTrials.gov trial register no. NCT00993252)

Background— Although approximately one third of patients with heart failure (HF) visiting the emergency department (ED) are discharged home, little is known about their care and outcomes. Methods and Results— We examined the acute care and early outcomes of patients with HF who visited an ED and were discharged without hospital admission in Ontario, Canada, from April 2004 to March 2007. Among 50 816 patients (age, 76.4±11.6 years; 49.4% men) visiting an ED for HF, 16 094 (31.7%) were discharged without hospital admission. A total of 4.0% died within 30 days from admission, and 1.3% died within 7 days of discharge from the ED. Although multiple (≥2) previous HF admissions (odds ratio [OR], 1.64; 95% CI, 1.14 to 2.31), valvular heart disease (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.84), peripheral vascular disease (OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.93), and respiratory disease (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.63) increased the risk of 30-day death among those discharged from the ED, presence of these conditions did not increase the likelihood of admission. Patients were more likely to be admitted if they were older (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10 per decade), arrived by ambulance (OR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.93 to 2.12), had a higher triage acuity score (OR, 4.12; 95% CI, 3.84 to 4.42), or received resuscitation in the ED (OR, 2.85; 95% CI, 2.68 to 3.04). In those with comparable predicted risks of death, subsequent 90-day mortality rates were higher among discharged than admitted patients (11.9% versus 9.5%; log-rank P =0.016). Conclusions— Patients with HF who are discharged from the ED have substantial risks of early death, which, in some cases, may exceed that of hospitalized patients.

Study objective More than half of all acute myocardial infarction patients still do not meet benchmark reperfusion times, and the triage assessment that all patients receive when they arrive at an emergency department (ED) is a hospital-level process that has not been studied as a potential contributor to delays. Our objective was to examine the triage of acute myocardial infarction patients (ST-elevation and non–ST elevation myocardial infarction) and determine whether it is associated with subsequent delays in acute myocardial infarction processes of care. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of a population-based cohort of acute myocardial infarction patients admitted to 102 acute care hospitals in Ontario, Canada, from July 2000 to March 2001. Main outcome measures were the rate of low-acuity triage (defined as a Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale score of III, IV, or V) among acute myocardial infarction patients and its association with delays in time from ED arrival to initial ECG (door-to-ECG time) and to administration of fibrinolysis (door-to-needle time). Results Among 3,088 acute myocardial infarction patients, the rate of low acuity triage was 50.3%. Median door-to-ECG and door-to-needle time was 12.0 and 40.0 minutes, respectively. In adjusted quantile regression analyses, low-acuity triage was independently associated with a 4.4-minute delay in median door-to-ECG time and a 15.1-minute delay in median door-to-needle time. The adjusted odds of achieving benchmark door-to-ECG and door-to-needle times were 0.54 (95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.65) and 0.44 (95% confidence interval 0.30 to 0.65), respectively, for acute myocardial infarction patients assigned a low-acuity ED triage score. Conclusion Half of acute myocardial infarction patients were given a low acuity triage score when they presented to an ED in Ontario, which was independently associated with substantial delays in ECG acquisition and to reperfusion therapy. The quality of ED triage may be an important factor limiting performance on key measures of quality of acute myocardial infarction care.

The objective was to develop and validate a method to link routinely captured electronic data for the measurement of emergency department (ED) quality indicators. Electronic ED data were linked to calculate time to antibiotics and time to electrocardiogram (ECG) for pneumonia and chest pain patients, respectively; validation was by comparison with chart data. Linked electronic data correctly identified 40/40 pneumonia and 65/65 chest pain patients. The median difference in time to antibiotics calculated from linked electronic data versus chart data was 6 minutes (standard deviation [SD] = 14.0); for time to ECG it was 0 minutes (SD = 70). The percentage of ED patients meeting target time to antibiotics was 47% with electronic data versus 44% with charts; for time to ECG, 8% met target time with electronic data versus 11% with charts. A simple computer algorithm for linking routine ED electronic data for quality-of-care measurement was validated.

Objective To derive and validate an International Classification of Diseases-10 (ICD-10) version of the Ontario Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) mortality prediction rules, used to adjust for case-mix differences in studies of AMI patients using administrative data. Study Design and Setting We linked the records of all Ontario patients admitted with AMI (2002–2004) with mortality data. The original ICD-9 codes were mapped to ICD-10-CA (Canada) codes using both a translation produced by coding experts and a manual search of codes; the final codes were determined by consensus. Comorbidity prevalence and mortality rates were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality and the C -statistic was used to evaluate the discrimination of the models. Results We identified 37,271 AMI patients. The most common comorbidities were heart failure and dysrhythmias; 30-day and 1-year mortality rates were 12.3% and 21.8%, respectively; and mortality rates were highest among patients with shock, cancer, and acute renal failure. The C -statistics were 0.77 and 0.80, compared with 0.78 and 0.79 in the ICD-9 version, for 30-day and 1-year mortality, respectively. Conclusion An ICD-10 version of the AMI mortality prediction rules predicted 30-day and 1-year mortality as well as the original ICD-9 version.

Background: There is a paucity of population-based research on health service utilization related to penetrating trauma in Canada, even though such trauma can result in serious injury or death, and gunshot wounds have been labelled the “the new public health issue.” Complete epidemiologic data, including emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations, for penetrating trauma is not available. The objective of this paper is to describe the epidemiology of ED visits for firearm-related and knife-related penetrating trauma in one Canadian province. Methods: All EDs in the province of Ontario (pop. approx. 12 400 000 at the time of the study) submit data on ED visits to the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System. This database includes patients' demographic information (i.e., age, sex and geographic area of residence), the reason for the visit, disposition (i.e., admitted to hospital or sent home), and other diagnostic information. For visits related to injuries, the cause of injury is also reported (e-codes according to the Canadian Enhancement to the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th rev [ICD-10-CA]). All patients seen in Ontario EDs for an injury related to a firearm, knife, or sharp object, were included in our study. Results: Of the 1.2 million ED visits in 2002-03 for trauma in Ontario, 40 240 (3.4%) patients were treated for injuries relating to penetrating trauma. Most patients were male, and most were 15–24 years of age. Penetrating trauma was frequently a result of knives or sharp objects (39 654 visits or 98.5%); only 1.5% (n = 586) of these injuries were caused by firearms. Of those hospitalized, 151 were related to firearms and 1455 were related to knives/ sharp objects. Conclusions: Analyzing administrative data provides an estimate of the impact of penetrating trauma on a population, thereby providing prevention programs with data upon which to design their strategies. Evidence-based prevention strategies are needed to reduce the burden of penetrating trauma. Monitoring ED and hospitalization data over time will help to assess trends and provide evidence for the effectiveness of such strategies.

BACKGROUND: Continuity of care has been shown to be poor following in-hospital discharge, and there are substantially fewer resources to facilitate follow-up care arrangements after discharge from an emergency department. Our objective was to assess the frequency, timeliness and predictors for obtaining follow-up care following discharge from an emergency department in Ontario with a new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving all patients discharged from the 157 nonpediatric emergency departments in Ontario, who received a new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation between 2007 and 2012. We determined the frequency of follow-up care with a family physician, cardiologist or internist within 7 (timely) and 30 days of the emergency department visit, and assessed the association of emergency and family physician characteristics, including primary care model type, with obtaining timely follow-up care. RESULTS: Among 14 907 patients discharged from Ontario emergency departments with a new, primary diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, half (n = 7473) had timely follow-up care. At 30 days, 2678 patients (18.0%) still had not obtained follow-up care. Among emergency and family physician factors, lack of a family physician had the largest independent association with acquiring timely follow-up care (odds ratio [OR] 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-0.69). Using patients with a family physician belonging to a primarily fee-for-service remuneration model as the comparison group, patients with a family physician belonging to a capitation-based Family Health Network, as part of a Family Health Team, were less likely to receive timely follow-up care (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.62-0.86), as were those whose family physician belonged to the same model type that was not part of a Family Health Team (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60-0.97). INTERPRETATION: Only half of the patients who were discharged from an emergency department in Ontario with a new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation were seen within 7 days of discharge. The most influential factor was having a family physician; patients with a family physician being remunerated via primarily fee-for-service methods were more likely to be seen within 7 days than those who were reimbursed through a primarily capitation model. Systems-wide solutions are needed to ensure timely follow-up care is available for all patients with chronic diseases.

Study objective Missed diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction is associated with adverse clinical outcomes and more dollars recovered in malpractice suits than any other condition. The rate of missed diagnosis varies between emergency departments (EDs); we hypothesized that it is associated with the volume of acute myocardial infarction patients treated in an ED and that the association can be explained by other hospital characteristics. Methods We linked the records of all acute myocardial infarction patients admitted to an Ontario hospital in 2002 to 2003 to their ED visit records in the 7 days preceding admission. Acute myocardial infarctions were defined as missed if the diagnosis on the previous visit matched a list of cardiac symptoms and illnesses. We assessed whether annual volume of admitted acute myocardial infarction patients treated in the ED (grouped as 0 to 49; 50 to 99; 100 to 199; 200 to 299; and ≥300) was associated with missed acute myocardial infarction, adjusting for age, sex, teaching hospital status, and acute myocardial infarction severity. In a secondary analysis, we used data from a survey of Ontario EDs to assess whether hospital characteristics (triage practices, use of diagnostic tests, and consultant availability) explained the volume association. Results Of 19,663 acute myocardial infarction patients, mean age (68.3 years), sex (63% men), and predicted 1-year mortality (mean 0.21; SD 0.18) were similar across volume groups. The rate of missed acute myocardial infarction was 2.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9% to 2.3%) and varied from 0% to 29% across EDs. Compared with very high-volume EDs, the adjusted odds ratio of missed acute myocardial infarction was 2.0 in very low- (95% CI 1.5 to 2.7) and 1.6 in low- (95% CI 1.1 to 2.3) volume EDs. Consultant availability partially explained the volume effect. Conclusion Lower-volume EDs have up to 2-fold higher odds of missed acute myocardial infarctions compared with highest-volume ones after controlling for patient factors. Many current technologies designed to increase diagnostic sensitivity are feasible only in higher-volume centers. Efforts to reduce overall rates of missed acute myocardial infarctions should instead focus on simpler solutions appropriate for lower-volume EDs, such as telemedicine to improve access to consultant expertise.

Background: Placental dysfunction (PD), which may manifest partly as the hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and abruption or infarction of the placenta, occurs more commonly in women with obesity, chronic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia—each a major feature of the metabolic syndrome. However, the relationship between the metabolic syndrome and the future risk of PD or fetal demise is unknown. Methods: We completed a retrospective cohort study of 1.03 million women who had a first documented delivery in the province of Ontario between 1990 and 2002. Using linked administrative databases, we categorized women as having zero, one, two, or three to four features of the metabolic syndrome up to 24 months before their index delivery hospitalization. Women were considered to have placental dysfunction if they had a diagnosis of preeclampsia, gestational hypertension, placental abruption, or placental infarction during their first hospitalization for delivery in the period of study. Results: At the time of delivery, 75 380 women (7.3%) were diagnosed as having PD. There was a progressive increase in the risk of PD in women with one (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0–3.1), two (OR 5.5; 95% CI 5.2–5.8), or three to four (OR 7.7; 95% CI 6.7–8.9) features of the metabolic syndrome, compared with none. A similar gradient effect was seen for the combined outcome of PD with poor fetal growth, or of PD with concomitant fetal death. Conclusions: Women who exhibit features of the metabolic syndrome before pregnancy have a higher graded risk of PD and fetal demise. Studies are needed to determine whether modifying a woman's metabolic profile before pregnancy, through modest caloric restriction and increased physical activity, can lower her future risk of PD.

Influenza has been linked to emergency department (ED) crowding, yet few studies have examined this association. We describe the relationship between ED crowding and influenza outbreaks.A retrospective time series analysis was conducted in Toronto from January 1996 to April 1999 (n=170 weeks). We obtained weekly data on laboratory-confirmed influenza and other respiratory virus cases in the community, ED ambulance diversion, and visits to all city EDs (n=20). The main outcome was ambulance diversion, measured as the mean number of hours per week in which EDs were forced to divert all ambulances.A mean of 10,936 ED visits occurred weekly (average age of patients 39.9 years; 51% female patients). EDs diverted ambulances an average of 3.4 hours per week (range 0.3 to 15 hours). Four influenza seasons occurred, lasting between 18 and 30 weeks each, with weekly influenza case counts ranging from 0 to 236. There were fewer than 10 cases per week in 119 of 170 weeks (70%). In time-series models, influenza was independently associated with ED ambulance diversion (P.0001). For every 100 cases of influenza in the community in a given week, ED ambulance diversion would be expected to increase by 2.5 h/wk at the average ED (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2 to 3.9 h/wk). During influenza seasons, 24.3% (95% CI 11.3% to 37.2%) of observed weekly ambulance diversion was attributable to influenza.Influenza seasons are associated with increased ED ambulance diversion. The impact is substantial but brief because there is little or no influenza activity most of each year.