1. ABC score: a new risk score that accurately predicts mortality in acute upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding: an international multicentre study
- Author
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Michael Schultz, Iain A. Murray, Stig Borbjerg Laursen, Eduardo Redondo-Cerezo, Vered Bieber, Marco Soncini, Harry R. Dalton, Riccardo Marmo, Loren Laine, Vipul Jairath, Ian M. Gralnek, Adrian J. Stanley, Jeffrey Ngu, and Kathryn Oakland
- Subjects
Male ,Gastrointestinal bleeding ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Lower gastrointestinal bleeding ,gastrointestinal bleeding ,Comorbidity ,Risk Assessment ,Sensitivity and Specificity ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Predictive Value of Tests ,Risk Factors ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,Prospective Studies ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Aged ,Hematologic Tests ,Framingham Risk Score ,Receiver operating characteristic ,business.industry ,Mortality rate ,Age Factors ,Gastroenterology ,medicine.disease ,Cohort ,Female ,030211 gastroenterology & hepatology ,Risk of death ,Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage ,business ,Cohort study - Abstract
ObjectivesExisting scores are not accurate at predicting mortality in upper (UGIB) and lower (LGIB) gastrointestinal bleeding. We aimed to develop and validate a new pre-endoscopy score for predicting mortality in both UGIB and LGIB.Design and settingInternational cohort study. Patients presenting to hospital with UGIB at six international centres were used to develop a risk score for predicting mortality using regression analyses. The score’s performance in UGIB and LGIB was externally validated and compared with existing scores using four international datasets. We calculated areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs), sensitivities, specificities and outcome among patients classified as low risk and high risk.Participants and resultsWe included 3012 UGIB patients in the development cohort, and 4019 UGIB and 2336 LGIB patients in the validation cohorts. Age, Blood tests and Comorbidities (ABC) score was closer associated with mortality in UGIB and LGIB (AUROCs: 0.81–84) than existing scores (AUROCs: 0.65–0.75; p≤0.02). In UGIB, patients with low ABC score (≤3), medium ABC score (4–7) and high ABC score (≥8) had 30-day mortality rates of 1.0%, 7.0% and 25%, respectively. Patients classified low risk using ABC score had lower mortality than those classified low risk with AIMS65 (threshold ≤1) (1.0 vs 4.5%; pConclusionsIn contrast to previous scores, ABC score has good performance for predicting mortality in both UGIB and LGIB, allowing early identification and targeted management of patients at high or low risk of death.
- Published
- 2020