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1. Joint Advisory Group on Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (JAG) framework for managing underperformance in gastrointestinal endoscopy

Author

Srivathsan Ravindran, Mark Coleman, Colin J Rees, Geoff Smith, Keith Siau, Chris Healey, and Siwan Thomas-Gibson

Subjects
Service (systems architecture), Hepatology, business.industry, Process (engineering), education, Gastroenterology, Endoscopy, medicine.disease, Coaching, Patient safety, Identification (information), Action plan, Medicine, Medical emergency, business, Accreditation, Gastrointestinal endoscopy
Abstract

Underperformance can be defined as performance which persistently falls below a desired minimum standard considered acceptable for patient care. Within gastrointestinal endoscopy, underperformance may be multifactorial, related to an individual’s knowledge, skills, attitudes, health or external factors. If left unchecked, underperformance has the potential to impact on care and ultimately patient safety. Managing underperformance should be a key attribute of high-quality endoscopy service, as recognised in the Joint Advisory Group on Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (JAG) accreditation process. However, it is recognised that not all services have robust mechanisms to do this.This article provides the JAG position on managing underperformance in endoscopy, defined through a practical framework. This follows a stepwise process of detecting underperformance, verification, identification of additional causative factors, providing support and reassessment. Detection and verification of issues may require use of multiple evidence sources, including performance data, feedback and appraisal reports. Where technical underperformance is identified, this should be risk stratified by potential risk to patient safety. Support should be tailored to each individual case based on the type of underperformance detected, any causative factors with an action plan developed. Support may include coaching, mentoring, training and upskilling. Wider support from the medical director’s office or external services may also be required. Monitoring and reassessment is a crucial part of the overall process.

Published
2021

3. P12 National endoscopy database (NED): the first million

Author

Ramesh P. Arasaradnam, Chris Healey, Peter Rogers, David Beaton, Shiran Esmaily, James Docherty, Paul Dunckley, Thomas J. Lee, Matthew D. Rutter, Ashraf Rasheed, Srivathsan Ravindran, and Raphael Broughton

Subjects
Abdominal pain, medicine.diagnostic_test, Database, business.industry, Heartburn, medicine.disease, computer.software_genre, Dysphagia, Endoscopy, Duodenitis, medicine, Vomiting, Hernia, medicine.symptom, business, Varices, computer
Abstract

Introduction The National Endoscopy Database (NED) is populated by data extracted automatically from endoscopy reporting systems (ERSs) of endoscopy services in the UK. 406 out of 520 UK endoscopy sites are currently uploading. We aimed to provide an overview of oesophagogastroduodenoscopies (OGDs) stored on NED. Methods Data from all OGDs uploaded to NED from 2016 to the 28th January 2020 was accessed and analysed using the standard output from the NED website. Results 1,010,741 OGDs have been uploaded to NED. 651,270 of those are from 2019, compared to 281,883 in 2018 and 21,457 in 2017, indicating the ongoing roll-out of NED across the UK. 47% of procedures were performed on male patients, 52% on female and 1% unspecified. 27% of OGDs were performed on patients 13% of procedures were on in-patients, 65% on out-patients, while 22% were unspecified. 51% of procedures were routine, 37% urgent, 3% emergency, and 3% surveillance. 7% were not specified. 49% of procedures were unsedated. The most common indications were: Dyspepsia (17%), Heartburn/Reflux (15%), Anaemia (15%), Dysphagia (14%), Abdominal Pain (12%). Other frequent indications were: Weight Loss (7%), Nausea/Vomiting (6%), Melaena (5%), Haematemesis (3%), Barrett’s Oesophagus (3%), Varices Surveillance (2%). ‘Other’ was included in the indication field in 37% of OGDs. The most common diagnoses were: Normal (31%), Hiatus Hernia (27%), Non-erosive Gastritis (17%), Reflux Oesophagitis (11%). Other frequent diagnoses were: Barrett’s oesophagus (7%), Erosive Gastritis (6%), Gastric Polyp(s) (5%), Non-erosive Duodenitis (5%), Oesophageal Varices (2%), Erosive Duodenitis (2%), Duodenal Ulcer (2%), Gastric Ulcer (2%). ‘Other’ was included in the diagnosis field in 18% of OGDs. (NB: Multiple indications and diagnoses can be entered for a procedure, hence sum of percentages is greater than 100% for these categories) Conclusion The majority of procedures were performed in the ≥ 50 age group, peaking between ages 70 to 79, although a quarter of all procedures were performed in people younger than 50. Close to half of OGDs are performed without sedation. Procedure uploads to the NED continue to increase exponentially year on year. The volume of data and high proportion of sites uploading allows unparalleled insights into OGD practice in the UK.

Published
2021

4. 'Case of the month': a novel way to learn from endoscopy-related patient safety incidents

Author

Siwan Thomas-Gibson, Manmeet Matharoo, Philip Berry, Tim Shaw, John O'Donohue, Matthew C Choy, Srivathsan Ravindran, Emma Robinson, Chris Healey, and Mark Coleman

Subjects
Hepatology, medicine.diagnostic_test, business.industry, Shared learning, Gastroenterology, Case vignette, Endoscopy, medicine.disease, Variety (cybernetics), 03 medical and health sciences, Patient safety, 0302 clinical medicine, Workforce, Health care, Medicine, 030211 gastroenterology & hepatology, 030212 general & internal medicine, Medical emergency, business, Gastrointestinal endoscopy
Abstract

Patient safety incidents (PSIs) are unintended or unexpected incidents which can or do lead to patient harm. The Joint Advisory Group on Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (JAG) acknowledges that PSIs should be reviewed by endoscopy services and learning shared among staff. It is recognised that more could be done to promote shared learning as outlined by the JAG ‘Improving Safety and Reducing Error in Endoscopy’ strategy. The ‘Case of the month’ series aims to provide a broad selection of cases and subsequent learning that can be shared among services and their workforce. This review focuses on five case vignettes that highlight a variety of PSIs in endoscopy. A structured approach, based on incident analysis methodology, is applied to each case to categorise PSIs and develop learning points. Learning is directed toward the individual, team and healthcare organisation. A selection of methods to disseminate learning at local, regional and national levels are also described.

Published
2020

5. JAG/BSG national survey of UK endoscopy services: impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and early restoration of endoscopy services

Author

Matthew D. Rutter, Chris Healey, Ian D. Penman, David Beaton, Jamie Catlow, Mark Coleman, Tim Shaw, Raphael Broughton, and Iosif Beintaris

Subjects
Hepatology, Referral, medicine.diagnostic_test, business.industry, Service delivery framework, Gastroenterology, Staffing, Colonoscopy, health service research, Workload, Endoscopy, medicine.disease, Vetting, colonoscopy, Medicine, Medical emergency, business, Personal protective equipment
Abstract

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected UK endoscopy workload. The Joint Advisory Group on GI endoscopy and British Society of Gastroenterology issued guidelines on endoscopy service delivery changes and restoration. We surveyed UK endoscopy clinical leads to gain insights into service restoration.MethodsA Google Forms-designed survey, assessing endoscopy provision, Covid minimisation and referral pathways was circulated to all UK endoscopy leads. The survey was open between 19 and 24 May 2020.Results97 endoscopy leads completed the survey, with all UK nations and regions represented. Analysis showed 20% of endoscopy services were not providing endoscopy. Workload limitations were due to enforced interprocedural downtime (92%; with some services enforcing >1-hour downtime between procedures), social distancing (88%) and working in personal protective equipment (PPE) (87%). 91% of services reported a referral backlog (urgent median 2 months, routine median 6 months). 96% of services reported no current problems accessing PPE. Level 1/2 PPE use in colonoscopy was not uniform. 63% of services routinely swab patients for COVID-19 before endoscopy, 88% of services do not routinely swab asymptomatic staff. Comments addressed reducing endoscopy demand through vetting and changing referral criteria, the mostly commonly cited strategy being increased faecal immunochemical testing in symptomatic patients (70% of services).ConclusionThis survey demonstrates the pandemic’s profound impact on UK endoscopy. Challenges include standardising Covid-minimisation strategies and recovering staffing levels. To improve endoscopy services, there is a need to refine referral pathways, improve vetting and clarify guidance on downtime and PPE within endoscopy.

Published
2020

6. A NATIONAL SURVEY OF SAFETY ACROSS UK ENDOSCOPY SERVICES

Author

Hutan Ashrafian, E Wood, Raphael Broughton, Michael Dron, Srivathsan Ravindran, Siwan Thomas-Gibson, Tim Shaw, Dimple Keen, J Green, Helen Griffiths, Ara Darzi, Chris Healey, and Paul Bassett

Subjects
medicine.diagnostic_test, business.industry, medicine, Medical emergency, business, medicine.disease, Endoscopy
Published
2020

7. Pretreatment prediction of response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: development and validation of the UDCA Response Score

Author

Marco Carbone, Alessandra Nardi, Steve Flack, Guido Carpino, Nikoletta Varvaropoulou, Caius Gavrila, Ann Spicer, Jonathan Badrock, Francesca Bernuzzi, Vincenzo Cardinale, Holly F Ainsworth, Michael A Heneghan, Douglas Thorburn, Andrew Bathgate, Rebecca Jones, James M Neuberger, Pier Maria Battezzati, Massimo Zuin, Simon Taylor-Robinson, Maria F Donato, John Kirby, Robert Mitchell-Thain, Annarosa Floreani, Fotios Sampaziotis, Luigi Muratori, Domenico Alvaro, Marco Marzioni, Luca Miele, Fabio Marra, Edoardo Giannini, Eugenio Gaudio, Vincenzo Ronca, Giulia Bonato, Laura Cristoferi, Federica Malinverno, Alessio Gerussi, Deborah D Stocken, Heather J Cordell, Gideon M Hirschfield, Graeme J Alexander, Richard N Sandford, David E Jones, Pietro Invernizzi, George F Mells, Caradog Thomas, Meshbah Rahman, Tom Yapp, Chin Lye Ch'ng, Melanie Harrison, Richard Sturgess, Roman Galaska, Chris Healey, Jessica Whiteman, Marek Czaijkowski, Catherine Gray, Anton Gunasekera, Pranab Gyawli, Purushothaman Premchand, Steven Mann, Keith Elliott, Kapil Kapur, Alan Watson, Graham Foster, Paul Trembling, Javaid Subhani, Rory Harvey, Roger McCorry, Carolyn Adgey, Lucie Hobson, Caroline Mulvaney-Jones, Richard Evans, Thiriloganathan Mathialahan, David Ramanaden, Jaber Gasem, Greta Van Duyvenvoorde, Christopher Shorrock, Katie Seward, Paul Southern, Jeremy Tibble, Ruth Penn, David Gorard, Jane Maiden, Rose Damant, Altaf Palegwala, Susan Jones, Graeme Alexander, George Mells, Richard Sandford, Sunil Dolwani, Martin Prince, Valeria Silvestre, Matthew Foxton, Eleanor Dungca, Harriet Mitchison, Natalie Wheatley, Ian Gooding, Helen Doyle, Mazn Karmo, Melanie Kent, Sushma Saksena, Delyth Braim, Minesh Patel, Susan Lord, Roland Ede, Alison Paton, Andrew Austin, Nicola Lancaster, Joanna Sayer, Andrew Gibbins, Karen Hogben, Chris Hovell, Neil Fisher, Martyn Carter, Konrad Koss, Janine Musselwhite, Florin Muscariu, Andrzej Piotreowicz, Alexandra McKay, Charles Grimley, David Neal, Lai Ting Tan, Guan Lim, Jacqueline Brighton, Carole Foale, Aftab Ala, Athar Saeed, Kerry Flahive, Gordon Wood, Paula Townshend, Chris Ford, Jonathan Brown, Jean Kordula, Jane Bowles, Mark Wilkinson, Caroline Palmer, John Ramage, Harriet Gordon, James Featherstone, Jo Ridpath, Theodore Ngatchu, Sass Levi, Syed Shaukat, Joy Sadeghian, Ray Shidrawi, Bronwen Williams, George Abouda, Sarah Jones, Claire Duggan, Abigail Hynes, Mark Narain, Ian Rees, Imroz Salam, Mary Crossey, Ashley Brown, Carolyn MacNicol, Simon Williams, Elva Wilhelmsen, Paul Banim, Parizade Raymode, Andrew Chilton, Debasish Das, Hye-Jeong Lee, Howard Curtis, Michael Heneghan, Markus Gess, Emma Durant, IM Drake, Rebecca Bishop, Mervyn Davies, Mark Aldersley, Noma Ncube, Alistair McNair, Raj Srirajaskanthan, Sambit Sen, Rebecca Casey, George Bird, Mike Mendall, Caroline Cowley, Adrian Barnardo, Paul Kitchen, Kevin Yoong, Kelly Amore, Dawn Sirdefield, Jacky Orpe, Ray Mathew, George MacFaul, Aruna Wrigth, Amir Shah, Chris Evans, Janie Keggans, Bridget Bird, Gwen Baxter, Subrata Saha, Katharine Pollock, Maggie Hughes, Peter Bramley, Emma Grieve, Karin Young, Andrew Fraser, Ashis Mukhopadhya, Kate Ocker, Peter Mills, Francis Hines, Chris Shallcross, Joy Wilkins, Leonie Grellier, Stewart Campbell, Kirsty Martin, Caron Innes, Alan Shepherd, Simon Rushbrook, Talal Valliani, Robert Przemioslo, Helen Fairlamb, Chris Macdonald, Anne Eastick, Jane Metcalf, Elizabeth Tanqueray, Udi Shmueli, Becky Holbrook, Andrew Davis, Julie Browning, Asifabbas Naqvi, Kirsten Walker, Tom Lee, Juliette Verheyden, Susan Slininger, Stephen D Ryder, Roger Chapman, Jane Collier, Denise O'Donnell, Lizzie Stafford, Kate Williamson, Linda Kent, Howard Klass, Mary Ninkovic, Linda March, Matthew Cramp, Diane Simpson, Christine Dickson, Nicholas Sharer, Maria Hayes, Patrick Goggin, Mary Quinne, Sallyanne Pearson, Barbara Hoeroldt, Linda Jones, Alice Wright, Jonathan Booth, Alison Loftus, George Lipscomb, Hannah Dewhurst, Emma Gunter, Earl Williams, Anna Fouracres, Liz Farrington, Lyn Graves, Hyder Hussaini, Bill Stableforth, Suzie Marriott, Reuben Ayres, Marina Leoni, Andrew Burroughs, Eileen Marshall, David Tyrer, Kate Martin, Martin Lombard, Imran Patanwala, Lola Dali-Kemmery, Victoria Lambourne, Julia Maltby, Samir Vyas, Julie Colley, Bal Shinder, Saket Singhal, Jayne Jones, Marisa Mills, Dermot Gleeson, Mandy Carnahan, Jeff Butterworth, Kerenza Boulton, Natalie Taylor, Keith George, Tim Harding, Julie Tregonning, Andrew Douglass, Carly Brown, Gayle Clifford, Simon Panter, Denise Gocher, Jeremy Shearman, Gary Bray, Maria Hamilton, Graham Butcher, Daniel Forton, John Mclindon, Janette Curtis, Debashis Das, Tracey Shewan, Matthew Cowan, Gregory Whatley, Mariam Nasseri, Bob Grover, Nurani Sivaramakrishnan, Samantha Ducker, Kathryn Houghton, David Jones, Laura Griffiths, Sherill Tripoli, Maxton Pitcher, Ervin Shpuza, Nikki White, Deb Ghosh, Andrew Douds, Marie Green, Matthew Brookes, Lourdes Cumlat, Voi Shim Wong, Karen Warner, Kimberley Netherton, Adtya Mandal, Snjiv Jain, Hemant Gupta, Pradeep Sanghi, Steve Pereira, James Neuberger, Bridget Gunson, Gideon Hirschfield, Reina Teegan Lim, Susan Gallagher, Darren Clement, Alison Brind, Gill Watts, Mcdonald Mupudzi, Mark Wright, Jane Gitahi, Fiona Gordon, Denis Gocher, Esther Unitt, Hilary Pateman, Sally Batham, Toby Delahooke, Allister Grant, Jill Conder, Andrew Higham, Mark Cox, Lynn O'Donohoe, Lynn Currie, Alistair King, Metod Oblak, Carole Collins, Simon Whalley, Marie Quinn, Yolanda Baird, Isobel Amey, Jocelyn Fraser, Andy Li, Donna Cotterill, Andrew Bell, Amit Singhal, Ian Gee, Sandra Greer, Yeng Ang, Rupert Ransford, Joanna Allison, James Gotto, Simon Dyer, Helen Sweeting, Charles Millson, Giancarlo Labbadia, Maria Consiglia Bragazzi, Pietro Andreone, Francesco Azzaroli, Andrea Galli, Mirko Tarocchi, Antonio Gasbarrini, Antonio Grieco, Giuseppe Marrone, Maria Francesca Donato, Luca Valenti, Luca Maroni, Cristina Rigamonti, Antonino Picciotto, Carbone, M, Nardi, A, Flack, S, Carpino, G, Varvaropoulou, N, Gavrila, C, Spicer, A, Badrock, J, Bernuzzi, F, Cardinale, V, Ainsworth, H, Heneghan, M, Thorburn, D, Bathgate, A, Jones, R, Neuberger, J, Battezzati, P, Zuin, M, Taylor-Robinson, S, Donato, M, Kirby, J, Mitchell-Thain, R, Floreani, A, Sampaziotis, F, Muratori, L, Alvaro, D, Marzioni, M, Miele, L, Marra, F, Giannini, E, Gaudio, E, Ronca, V, Bonato, G, Cristoferi, L, Malinverno, F, Gerussi, A, Stocken, D, Cordell, H, Hirschfield, G, Alexander, G, Sandford, R, Jones, D, Invernizzi, P, Mells, G, Thomas, C, Rahman, M, Yapp, T, Lye Ch'ng, C, Harrison, M, Sturgess, R, Galaska, R, Healey, C, Whiteman, J, Czaijkowski, M, Gray, C, Gunasekera, A, Gyawli, P, Premchand, P, Mann, S, Elliott, K, Kapur, K, Watson, A, Foster, G, Trembling, P, Subhani, J, Harvey, R, Mccorry, R, Adgey, C, Hobson, L, Mulvaney-Jones, C, Evans, R, Mathialahan, T, Ramanaden, D, Gasem, J, Van Duyvenvoorde, G, Shorrock, C, Seward, K, Southern, P, Tibble, J, Penn, R, Gorard, D, Maiden, J, Damant, R, Palegwala, A, Jones, S, Dolwani, S, Prince, M, Silvestre, V, Foxton, M, Dungca, E, Mitchison, H, Wheatley, N, Gooding, I, Doyle, H, Karmo, M, Kent, M, Saksena, S, Braim, D, Patel, M, Lord, S, Ede, R, Paton, A, Austin, A, Lancaster, N, Sayer, J, Gibbins, A, Hogben, K, Hovell, C, Fisher, N, Carter, M, Koss, K, Musselwhite, J, Muscariu, F, Piotreowicz, A, Mckay, A, Grimley, C, Neal, D, Ting Tan, L, Lim, G, Brighton, J, Foale, C, Ala, A, Saeed, A, Flahive, K, Wood, G, Townshend, P, Ford, C, Brown, J, Kordula, J, Bowles, J, Wilkinson, M, Palmer, C, Ramage, J, Gordon, H, Featherstone, J, Ridpath, J, Ngatchu, T, Levi, S, Shaukat, S, Sadeghian, J, Shidrawi, R, Williams, B, Abouda, G, Duggan, C, Hynes, A, Narain, M, Rees, I, Salam, I, Crossey, M, Brown, A, Macnicol, C, Williams, S, Wilhelmsen, E, Banim, P, Raymode, P, Chilton, A, Das, D, Lee, H, Curtis, H, Gess, M, Durant, E, Drake, I, Bishop, R, Davies, M, Aldersley, M, Ncube, N, Mcnair, A, Srirajaskanthan, R, Sen, S, Casey, R, Bird, G, Mendall, M, Cowley, C, Barnardo, A, Kitchen, P, Yoong, K, Amore, K, Sirdefield, D, Orpe, J, Mathew, R, Macfaul, G, Wrigth, A, Shah, A, Evans, C, Keggans, J, Bird, B, Baxter, G, Saha, S, Pollock, K, Hughes, M, Bramley, P, Grieve, E, Young, K, Fraser, A, Mukhopadhya, A, Ocker, K, Mills, P, Hines, F, Shallcross, C, Wilkins, J, Grellier, L, Campbell, S, Martin, K, Innes, C, Shepherd, A, Rushbrook, S, Valliani, T, Przemioslo, R, Fairlamb, H, Macdonald, C, Eastick, A, Metcalf, J, Tanqueray, E, Shmueli, U, Holbrook, B, Davis, A, Browning, J, Naqvi, A, Walker, K, Lee, T, Verheyden, J, Slininger, S, Ryder, S, Chapman, R, Collier, J, O'Donnell, D, Stafford, L, Williamson, K, Kent, L, Klass, H, Ninkovic, M, March, L, Cramp, M, Simpson, D, Dickson, C, Sharer, N, Hayes, M, Goggin, P, Quinne, M, Pearson, S, Hoeroldt, B, Jones, L, Wright, A, Booth, J, Loftus, A, Lipscomb, G, Dewhurst, H, Gunter, E, Williams, E, Fouracres, A, Farrington, L, Graves, L, Hussaini, H, Stableforth, B, Marriott, S, Ayres, R, Leoni, M, Burroughs, A, Marshall, E, Tyrer, D, Lombard, M, Patanwala, I, Dali-Kemmery, L, Lambourne, V, Maltby, J, Vyas, S, Colley, J, Shinder, B, Singhal, S, Jones, J, Mills, M, Gleeson, D, Carnahan, M, Butterworth, J, Boulton, K, Taylor, N, George, K, Harding, T, Tregonning, J, Douglass, A, Brown, C, Clifford, G, Panter, S, Gocher, D, Shearman, J, Bray, G, Hamilton, M, Butcher, G, Forton, D, Mclindon, J, Curtis, J, Shewan, T, Cowan, M, Whatley, G, Nasseri, M, Grover, B, Sivaramakrishnan, N, Ducker, S, Houghton, K, Griffiths, L, Tripoli, S, Pitcher, M, Shpuza, E, White, N, Ghosh, D, Douds, A, Green, M, Brookes, M, Cumlat, L, Wong, V, Warner, K, Netherton, K, Mandal, A, Jain, S, Gupta, H, Sanghi, P, Pereira, S, Gunson, B, Lim, R, Gallagher, S, Clement, D, Brind, A, Watts, G, Mupudzi, M, Wright, M, Gitahi, J, Gordon, F, Unitt, E, Pateman, H, Batham, S, Delahooke, T, Grant, A, Conder, J, Higham, A, Cox, M, O'Donohoe, L, Currie, L, King, A, Oblak, M, Collins, C, Whalley, S, Quinn, M, Baird, Y, Amey, I, Fraser, J, Li, A, Cotterill, D, Bell, A, Singhal, A, Gee, I, Greer, S, Ang, Y, Ransford, R, Allison, J, Gotto, J, Dyer, S, Sweeting, H, Millson, C, Labbadia, G, Bragazzi, M, Andreone, P, Azzaroli, F, Galli, A, Tarocchi, M, Gasbarrini, A, Grieco, A, Marrone, G, Valenti, L, Maroni, L, Rigamonti, C, Picciotto, A, Sampaziotis, Fotios [0000-0003-0812-7586], Sandford, Richard [0000-0002-7437-0560], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Carbone, Marco, Nardi, Alessandra, Flack, Steve, Carpino, Guido, Varvaropoulou, Nikoletta, Gavrila, Caiu, Spicer, Ann, Badrock, Jonathan, Bernuzzi, Francesca, Cardinale, Vincenzo, Ainsworth, Holly F, Heneghan, Michael A, Thorburn, Dougla, Bathgate, Andrew, Jones, Rebecca, Neuberger, James M, Battezzati, Pier Maria, Zuin, Massimo, Taylor-Robinson, Simon, Donato, Maria F, Kirby, John, Mitchell-Thain, Robert, Floreani, Annarosa, Sampaziotis, Fotio, Muratori, Luigi, Alvaro, Domenico, Marzioni, Marco, Miele, Luca, Marra, Fabio, Giannini, Edoardo, Gaudio, Eugenio, Ronca, Vincenzo, Bonato, Giulia, Cristoferi, Laura, Malinverno, Federica, Gerussi, Alessio, Stocken, Deborah D, Cordell, Heather J, Hirschfield, Gideon M, Alexander, Graeme J, Sandford, Richard N, Jones, David E, Invernizzi, Pietro, Mells, George F, Thomas, Caradog, Rahman, Meshbah, Yapp, Tom, Lye Ch'ng, Chin, Harrison, Melanie, Sturgess, Richard, Galaska, Roman, Healey, Chri, Whiteman, Jessica, Czaijkowski, Marek, Gray, Catherine, Gunasekera, Anton, Gyawli, Pranab, Premchand, Purushothaman, Mann, Steven, Elliott, Keith, Kapur, Kapil, Watson, Alan, Foster, Graham, Trembling, Paul, Subhani, Javaid, Harvey, Rory, McCorry, Roger, Adgey, Carolyn, Hobson, Lucie, Mulvaney-Jones, Caroline, Evans, Richard, Mathialahan, Thiriloganathan, Ramanaden, David, Gasem, Jaber, Van Duyvenvoorde, Greta, Shorrock, Christopher, Seward, Katie, Southern, Paul, Tibble, Jeremy, Penn, Ruth, Gorard, David, Maiden, Jane, Damant, Rose, Palegwala, Altaf, Jones, Susan, Alexander, Graeme, Mells, George, Sandford, Richard, Dolwani, Sunil, Prince, Martin, Silvestre, Valeria, Foxton, Matthew, Dungca, Eleanor, Mitchison, Harriet, Wheatley, Natalie, Gooding, Ian, Doyle, Helen, Karmo, Mazn, Kent, Melanie, Saksena, Sushma, Braim, Delyth, Patel, Minesh, Lord, Susan, Ede, Roland, Paton, Alison, Austin, Andrew, Lancaster, Nicola, Sayer, Joanna, Gibbins, Andrew, Hogben, Karen, Hovell, Chri, Fisher, Neil, Carter, Martyn, Koss, Konrad, Musselwhite, Janine, Muscariu, Florin, Piotreowicz, Andrzej, McKay, Alexandra, Grimley, Charle, Neal, David, Ting Tan, Lai, Lim, Guan, Brighton, Jacqueline, Foale, Carole, Ala, Aftab, Saeed, Athar, Flahive, Kerry, Wood, Gordon, Townshend, Paula, Ford, Chri, Brown, Jonathan, Kordula, Jean, Bowles, Jane, Wilkinson, Mark, Palmer, Caroline, Ramage, John, Gordon, Harriet, Featherstone, Jame, Ridpath, Jo, Ngatchu, Theodore, Levi, Sa, Shaukat, Syed, Sadeghian, Joy, Shidrawi, Ray, Williams, Bronwen, Abouda, George, Jones, Sarah, Duggan, Claire, Hynes, Abigail, Narain, Mark, Rees, Ian, Salam, Imroz, Crossey, Mary, Brown, Ashley, MacNicol, Carolyn, Williams, Simon, Wilhelmsen, Elva, Banim, Paul, Raymode, Parizade, Chilton, Andrew, Das, Debasish, Lee, Hye-Jeong, Curtis, Howard, Heneghan, Michael, Gess, Marku, Durant, Emma, Drake, I.M., Bishop, Rebecca, Davies, Mervyn, Aldersley, Mark, Ncube, Noma, McNair, Alistair, Srirajaskanthan, Raj, Sen, Sambit, Casey, Rebecca, Bird, George, Mendall, Mike, Cowley, Caroline, Barnardo, Adrian, Kitchen, Paul, Yoong, Kevin, Amore, Kelly, Sirdefield, Dawn, Orpe, Jacky, Mathew, Ray, MacFaul, George, Wrigth, Aruna, Shah, Amir, Evans, Chri, Keggans, Janie, Bird, Bridget, Baxter, Gwen, Saha, Subrata, Pollock, Katharine, Hughes, Maggie, Bramley, Peter, Grieve, Emma, Young, Karin, Fraser, Andrew, Mukhopadhya, Ashi, Ocker, Kate, Mills, Peter, Hines, Franci, Shallcross, Chri, Wilkins, Joy, Grellier, Leonie, Campbell, Stewart, Martin, Kirsty, Innes, Caron, Shepherd, Alan, Rushbrook, Simon, Valliani, Talal, Przemioslo, Robert, Fairlamb, Helen, Macdonald, Chri, Eastick, Anne, Metcalf, Jane, Tanqueray, Elizabeth, Shmueli, Udi, Holbrook, Becky, Davis, Andrew, Browning, Julie, Naqvi, Asifabba, Walker, Kirsten, Lee, Tom, Verheyden, Juliette, Slininger, Susan, Ryder, Stephen D, Chapman, Roger, Collier, Jane, O'Donnell, Denise, Stafford, Lizzie, Williamson, Kate, Kent, Linda, Klass, Howard, Ninkovic, Mary, March, Linda, Cramp, Matthew, Simpson, Diane, Dickson, Christine, Sharer, Nichola, Hayes, Maria, Goggin, Patrick, Quinne, Mary, Pearson, Sallyanne, Hoeroldt, Barbara, Jones, Linda, Wright, Alice, Booth, Jonathan, Loftus, Alison, Lipscomb, George, Dewhurst, Hannah, Gunter, Emma, Williams, Earl, Fouracres, Anna, Farrington, Liz, Graves, Lyn, Hussaini, Hyder, Stableforth, Bill, Marriott, Suzie, Ayres, Reuben, Leoni, Marina, Burroughs, Andrew, Marshall, Eileen, Tyrer, David, Martin, Kate, Lombard, Martin, Patanwala, Imran, Dali-Kemmery, Lola, Lambourne, Victoria, Maltby, Julia, Vyas, Samir, Colley, Julie, Shinder, Bal, Singhal, Saket, Jones, Jayne, Mills, Marisa, Gleeson, Dermot, Carnahan, Mandy, Butterworth, Jeff, Boulton, Kerenza, Taylor, Natalie, George, Keith, Harding, Tim, Tregonning, Julie, Douglass, Andrew, Brown, Carly, Clifford, Gayle, Panter, Simon, Gocher, Denise, Shearman, Jeremy, Bray, Gary, Hamilton, Maria, Butcher, Graham, Forton, Daniel, Mclindon, John, Curtis, Janette, Das, Debashi, Shewan, Tracey, Cowan, Matthew, Whatley, Gregory, Nasseri, Mariam, Grover, Bob, Sivaramakrishnan, Nurani, Ducker, Samantha, Houghton, Kathryn, Jones, David, Griffiths, Laura, Tripoli, Sherill, Pitcher, Maxton, Shpuza, Ervin, White, Nikki, Ghosh, Deb, Douds, Andrew, Green, Marie, Brookes, Matthew, Cumlat, Lourde, Wong, Voi Shim, Warner, Karen, Netherton, Kimberley, Mandal, Adtya, Jain, Snjiv, Gupta, Hemant, Sanghi, Pradeep, Pereira, Steve, Neuberger, Jame, Gunson, Bridget, Hirschfield, Gideon, Lim, Reina Teegan, Gallagher, Susan, Clement, Darren, Brind, Alison, Watts, Gill, Mupudzi, Mcdonald, Wright, Mark, Gitahi, Jane, Gordon, Fiona, Gocher, Deni, Unitt, Esther, Pateman, Hilary, Batham, Sally, Delahooke, Toby, Grant, Allister, Conder, Jill, Higham, Andrew, Cox, Mark, O'Donohoe, Lynn, Currie, Lynn, King, Alistair, Oblak, Metod, Collins, Carole, Whalley, Simon, Quinn, Marie, Baird, Yolanda, Amey, Isobel, Fraser, Jocelyn, Li, Andy, Cotterill, Donna, Bell, Andrew, Singhal, Amit, Gee, Ian, Greer, Sandra, Ang, Yeng, Ransford, Rupert, Allison, Joanna, Gotto, Jame, Dyer, Simon, Sweeting, Helen, Millson, Charle, Labbadia, Giancarlo, Bragazzi, Maria Consiglia, Andreone, Pietro, Azzaroli, Francesco, Galli, Andrea, Tarocchi, Mirko, Gasbarrini, Antonio, Grieco, Antonio, Marrone, Giuseppe, Donato, Maria Francesca, Valenti, Luca, Maroni, Luca, Rigamonti, Cristina, Picciotto, Antonino, and Medical Research Council (MRC)

Subjects
Male, Cholagogues and Choleretics, Cirrhosis, medicine.medical_treatment, PROGRESSION, Liver transplantation, PHENOTYPE, Gastroenterology, UDCA, 0302 clinical medicine, Primary biliary cirrhosis, Risk Factors, Medicine, Age of Onset, CIRRHOSIS, TREE, OUTCOMES, Settore MED/12 - Gastroenterologia, medicine.diagnostic_test, Liver Cirrhosis, Biliary, Ursodeoxycholic Acid, Area under the curve, URSODIOL, Middle Aged, Ursodeoxycholic acid, Treatment Outcome, Primary biliary cholangitis, ursodeoxycholic acid, 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis, Liver biopsy, Area Under Curve, 030211 gastroenterology & hepatology, Female, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, medicine.drug, medicine.medical_specialty, CONTROLLED-TRIAL, Hepatology, Decision Support Techniques, Time-to-Treatment, Biliary injury, 03 medical and health sciences, Internal medicine, Humans, Transaminases, Science & Technology, Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Italian PBC Study Group and the UK–PBC Consortium, business.industry, Bilirubin, medicine.disease, Alkaline Phosphatase, ROC Curve, CELLS, Linear Models, business
Abstract

Background: Treatment guidelines recommend a stepwise approach to primary biliary cholangitis: all patients begin treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) monotherapy and those with an inadequate biochemical response after 12 months are subsequently considered for second-line therapies. However, as a result, patients at the highest risk can wait the longest for effective treatment. We determined whether UDCA response can be accurately predicted using pretreatment clinical parameters. Methods: We did logistic regression analysis of pretreatment variables in a discovery cohort of patients in the UK with primary biliary cholangitis to derive the best-fitting model of UDCA response, defined as alkaline phosphatase less than 1·67 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), measured after 12 months of treatment with UDCA. We validated the model in an external cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and treated with UDCA in Italy. Additionally, we assessed correlations between model predictions and key histological features, such as biliary injury and fibrosis, on liver biopsy samples. Findings: 2703 participants diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis between Jan 1, 1998, and May 31, 2015, were included in the UK-PBC cohort for derivation of the model. The following pretreatment parameters were associated with lower probability of UDCA response: higher alkaline phosphatase concentration (p

Published
2018

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