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We aim to determine whether a game-theoretic model between an insurer and a healthcare practice yields a predictive equilibrium that incentivizes either player to deviate from a fee-for-service to capitation payment system. Using United States data from various primary care surveys, we find that non-extreme equilibria (i.e., shares of patients, or shares of patient visits, seen under a fee-for-service payment system) can be derived from a Stackelberg game if insurers award a non-linear bonus to practices based on performance. Overall, both insurers and practices can be incentivized to embrace capitation payments somewhat, but potentially at the expense of practice performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates a labor-intensive process to measure the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States. Random forests methods have shown promise in speeding up this process, but they lag behind human classification accuracy by about 5%. We explore whether more recently available document classification algorithms can close this gap. Materials and methods: Using data gathered from a single surveillance site, we applied 8 supervised learning algorithms to predict whether children meet the case definition for ASD based solely on the words in their evaluations. We compared the algorithms’ performance across 10 random train-test splits of the data, using classification accuracy, F1 score, and number of positive calls to evaluate their potential use for surveillance. Results: Across the 10 train-test cycles, the random forest and support vector machine with Naive Bayes features (NB-SVM) each achieved slightly more than 87% mean accuracy. The NB-SVM produced significantly more false negatives than false positives (P = 0.027), but the random forest did not, making its prevalence estimates very close to the true prevalence in the data. The best-performing neural network performed similarly to the random forest on both measures. Discussion: The random forest performed as well as more recently available models like the NB-SVM and the neural network, and it also produced good prevalence estimates. NB-SVM may not be a good candidate for use in a fully-automated surveillance workflow due to increased false negatives. More sophisticated algorithms, like hierarchical convolutional neural networks, may not be feasible to train due to characteristics of the data. Current algorithms might perform better if the data are abstracted and processed differently and if they take into account information about the children in addition to their evaluations. Conclusion: Deep learning models performed similarly to traditional machine learning methods at predicting the clinician-assigned case status for CDC’s autism surveillance system. While deep learning methods had limited benefit in this task, they may have applications in other surveillance systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevalence of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has rapidly increased among young people, while conventional cigarette use has decreased in this age group. However, some evidence suggests that e-cigarette use is likely to induce conventional cigarette smoking. The present study explored the social influence of the prevalence of e-cigarette use in the peer network and in the general population as a potential mechanism by which e-cigarette use affects adolescents’ overall smoking behaviours. For this purpose, we developed an agent-based model in which young agents repeatedly choose to smoke conventional cigarettes and/or e-cigarettes, or to remain non-smokers. The choice is based on the agent’s evaluation of the utility derived from smoking and attitude towards smoking (‘openness’), which is influenced by smoking prevalence in the agent’s peer network and in the broader society. We also assumed a ‘crossover’ effect between the different types of smoking. The model was calibrated with United States National Youth Tobacco Survey data to reflect real-world numbers. We further simulated the prevalence of different types of smoking under counterfactual scenarios with different levels of openness and crossover effects. The models developed successfully reproduced actual prevalence trends in different types of smoking from 2011 to 2014. Openness to smoking is associated with a dramatic increase in e-cigarette smoking and especially in dual smoking, which cancels out the decline in sole conventional smoking. Larger crossover effects are associated with a higher prevalence of conventional smoking. The simulation results indicate that the social influence of the prevalence of e-cigarette use may influence young people to initiate or continue conventional cigarette smoking. Assessing the impact of e-cigarettes in the general population as a ‘healthier’ alternative to conventional smoking may require carefully monitoring trends in young people’s smoking behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A causal association of air pollution with mental diseases is an intriguing possibility raised in a Short Report just published in PLOS Biology. Despite analyses involving large data sets, the available evidence has substantial shortcomings, and a long series of potential biases may invalidate the observed associations. Only bipolar disorder shows consistent results, with similar effects across United States and Denmark data sets, but the effect has modest magnitude, appropriate temporality is not fully secured, and biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, and analogy offer weak support. The signal seems to persist in some robustness analyses, but more analyses by multiple investigators, including contrarians, are necessary. Broader public sharing of data sets would also enhance transparency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of influenza-like illness (ILI) using search trends activity was intended to supplement traditional surveillance systems, and was a motivation behind the development of Google Flu Trends (GFT). However, several studies have previously reported large errors in GFT estimates of ILI in the US. Following recent release of time-stamped surveillance data, which better reflects real-time operational scenarios, we reanalyzed GFT errors. Using three data sources—GFT: an archive of weekly ILI estimates from Google Flu Trends; ILIf: fully-observed ILI rates from ILINet; and, ILIp: ILI rates available in real-time based on partial reporting—five influenza seasons were analyzed and mean square errors (MSE) of GFT and ILIp as estimates of ILIf were computed. To correct GFT errors, a random forest regression model was built with ILI and GFT rates from the previous three weeks as predictors. An overall reduction in error of 44% was observed and the errors of the corrected GFT are lower than those of ILIp. An 80% reduction in error during 2012/13, when GFT had large errors, shows that extreme failures of GFT could have been avoided. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, one- to four-week ahead forecasts were generated with two separate data streams: ILIp alone, and with both ILIp and corrected GFT. At all forecast targets and seasons, and for all but two regions, inclusion of GFT lowered MSE. Results from two alternative error measures, mean absolute error and mean absolute proportional error, were largely consistent with results from MSE. Taken together these findings provide an error profile of GFT in the US, establish strong evidence for the adoption of search trends based 'nowcasts' in influenza forecast systems, and encourage reevaluation of the utility of this data source in diverse domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) is an HIV surveillance system that provides national estimates of HIV-related behaviors and clinical outcomes. When first implemented, MMP excluded persons living with HIV not receiving HIV care. This analysis will describe new case-surveillance-based methods to identify and recruit persons living with HIV who are out of care and at elevated risk for mortality and ongoing HIV transmission. Stratified random samples of all persons living with HIV were selected from the National HIV Surveillance System in five public health jurisdictions from 2012–2014. Sampled persons were located and contacted through seven different data sources and five methods of contact to collect interviews and medical record abstractions. Data were weighted for non-response and case reporting delay. The modified sampling methodology yielded 1159 interviews (adjusted response rate, 44.5%) and matching medical record abstractions for 1087 (93.8%). Of persons with both interview and medical record data, 264 (24.3%) would not have been included using prior MMP methods. Significant predictors were identified for successful contact (e.g., retention in care, adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 5.02; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.98–12.73), interview (e.g. moving out of jurisdiction, aOR 0.24; 95% CI: 0.12–0.46) and case reporting delay (e.g. rural residence, aOR 3.18; 95% CI: 2.09–4.85). Case-surveillance-based sampling resulted in a comparable response rate to existing MMP methods while providing information on an important new population. These methods have since been adopted by the nationally representative MMP surveillance system, offering a model for public health program, research and surveillance endeavors seeking inclusion of all persons living with HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Exposure to fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is hazardous to health. Our aim was to directly estimate the health and longevity impacts of current PM2.5 concentrations and the benefits of reductions from 1999 to 2015, nationally and at county level, for the entire contemporary population of the contiguous United States.Methods and Findings: We used vital registration and population data with information on sex, age, cause of death, and county of residence. We used four Bayesian spatiotemporal models, with different adjustments for other determinants of mortality, to directly estimate mortality and life expectancy loss due to current PM2.5 pollution and the benefits of reductions since 1999, nationally and by county. The covariates included in the adjusted models were per capita income; percentage of population whose family income is below the poverty threshold, who are of Black or African American race, who have graduated from high school, who live in urban areas, and who are unemployed; cumulative smoking; and mean temperature and relative humidity. In the main model, which adjusted for these covariates and for unobserved county characteristics through the use of county-specific random intercepts, PM2.5 pollution in excess of the lowest observed concentration (2.8 μg/m3) was responsible for an estimated 15,612 deaths (95% credible interval 13,248-17,945) in females and 14,757 deaths (12,617-16,919) in males. These deaths would lower national life expectancy by an estimated 0.15 years (0.13-0.17) for women and 0.13 years (0.11-0.15) for men. The life expectancy loss due to PM2.5 was largest around Los Angeles and in some southern states such as Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alabama. At any PM2.5 concentration, life expectancy loss was, on average, larger in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate than in wealthier counties. Reductions in PM2.5 since 1999 have lowered mortality in all but 14 counties where PM2.5 increased slightly. The main limitation of our study, similar to other observational studies, is that it is not guaranteed for the observed associations to be causal. We did not have annual county-level data on other important determinants of mortality, such as healthcare access and quality and diet, but these factors were adjusted for with use of county-specific random intercepts.Conclusions: According to our estimates, recent reductions in particulate matter pollution in the USA have resulted in public health benefits. Nonetheless, we estimate that current concentrations are associated with mortality impacts and loss of life expectancy, with larger impacts in counties with lower income and higher poverty rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the accuracy and precision of ultrasound shear wave elasticity measurements as a function of target elasticity and acquisition depth. Materials and methods: Using five ultrasound systems (VTQ, VTIQ, EPIQ 5, Aixplorer, and Aplio 500), two operators independently measured shear wave elasticities in two phantoms containing five different target elasticities (8±3, 14±4, 25±6, 45±8, and 80±12 kPa) at depths of 15, 30, 35, and 60 mm. Accuracy was assessed by evaluating measurement errors and the proportions of outliers, while factors affecting accuracy were assessed using logistic regression analysis. Measurement errors were defined as differences between the measured values and 1) the margins of the target elasticity, and 2) the median values of the target elasticity. Outliers were defined as measured values outside the margins of the target elasticity. Precision was assessed by calculating the reproducibility of measurements using the within-subject coefficient of variation (wCV). Results: Mean measurement errors and the proportions of outliers were higher for high than for low target elasticities (p<0.001), but did not differ in relation to acquisition depth, either within an elastography system or across the different systems. Logistic regression analysis showed that target elasticity (p<0.001) significantly affected accuracy, whereas acquisition depth (p>0.05) did not. The wCV for the 80±12 kPa target (31.33%) was significantly higher than that for lower elasticity targets (6.96–10.43 kPa; p<0.001). The wCV did not differ across acquisition depths. The individual elastography systems showed consistent results. Conclusions: Targets with high elasticity showed lower accuracy and lower precision than targets with low elasticity, while acquisition depth did not show consistent patterns in either accuracy or precision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence of involvement of novel biomarkers in disease pathogenesis from research cohorts often precedes an understanding of their distributions in broader populations. This study aimed to estimate the distribution of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23), an endocrine hormone that helps to regulate serum phosphate levels, in the overall US population and in important subgroups. We used a predictive model generated using data from the Framingham Health Study to estimate FGF-23 values for adults in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the size of patient subgroups with levels of FGF-23 above selected thresholds. To assess the face validity of our FGF-23 estimates, we examined the relationship between estimated FGF-23 and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality within NHANES using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional-hazards regression models and compared it to that observed in Framingham. Estimated FGF-23 values from NHANES were lower (median [interquartile range] 47.4 [35.8, 64.0] vs. 67.0 [54.0, 85.0] RU/mL) than the observed FGF-23 values from the Framingham cohort. Age- and sex-adjusted 10-year all-cause mortality was significantly higher (hazard ratio 2.43 [95% confidence interval: 1.42, 4.16]) for subjects with estimated FGF-23 levels in the highest versus lowest quartile. Estimating the distribution of biomarker values in the general population by applying predictive equations from smaller research cohorts is feasible and can inform drug research decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) treatment in persons at increased risk of disease progression is a key strategy with the strong potential to increase rate of tuberculosis (TB) decline in the United States. However, LTBI treatment in homeless persons, a population at high-risk of active TB disease, is usually associated with poor adherence. We describe the impact of using directly observed treatment (DOT) versus self-administered treatments (SAT) as an adherence-improving intervention to administer four months of daily rifampin regimen for LTBI treatment among homeless adults in Atlanta. Retrospective analysis of clinical care data on 274 homeless persons who initiated daily rifampin treatment for LTBI treatment at a county health department between January 2014 and December 2016 was performed. To reduce bias from non-random assignment of treatment, an inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) logistic regression model was used to assess the effect of treatment type on treatment completion. Subgroup analyses were performed to assess heterogeneity of treatment effect on LTBI completion. Of 274 LTBI treatment initiators, 177 (65%) completed treatment [DOT 118/181 (65%), SAT 59/93 (63%)]. In the fully adjusted and weighted analysis, the odds of completing LTBI treatment on DOT was 40% higher than the odds of completing treatment by SAT [adjusted odds ratio (95% CI), aOR: 1.40 (1.07, 1.82), p = 0.014]. The unstable nature of homeless persons’ lifestyle makes LTBI treatment difficult for many reasons. Our study lends support to the use of DOT to improve LTBI treatment completion among subgroups of homeless persons on treatment with daily rifampin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Persons with dementia have twice the acute hospital use as older persons without dementia. In addition to straining overburdened healthcare systems, acute hospital use impacts patient and caregiver quality of life and is associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes including death. Reducing avoidable acute hospital use in persons with dementia is thus a global healthcare priority. However, evidence regarding the impact of health service interventions as defined by the Effective Practice and Organization of Care Cochrane Group on acute hospital use is scant and inconclusive. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to synthesize available evidence on the impact of health service interventions on acute hospital use in community-dwelling persons with dementia compared to usual care. Methods: Data Sources: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Cochrane CENTRAL (from 01/1995 to 08/2017). Study eligibility criteria: Randomised controlled trials measuring the impact of health service interventions on acute hospital use (proportion and mean number of emergency department visits and hospitalisations, mean number of hospital days, measured at 12 months, and at longest follow-up) in community-dwelling persons with dementia, compared to usual care. Study selection, appraisal and synthesis methods: Reviewers independently identified studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias, with the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Authors of relevant trials were queried about unpublished data. Random effects model was used for meta-analyses. Effect heterogeneity was assessed through prediction intervals, and explored using sub-group analyses. Findings: Seventeen trials provided data on 4,549 persons. Unpublished data were obtained for 13 trials, representing 65% of synthesized data. Most interventions included a case management or a self-management component. None of the outcome comparisons provided conclusive evidence supporting the hypothesis that these interventions would lead to a decrease in acute hospital use. Furthermore, prediction intervals indicated possible and important increased service use associated with these interventions, such as emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and hospital days. Subgroup analyses did not favour any type of intervention. A limitation of this study is the inclusion of any type of health service intervention, which may have increased the observed heterogeneity. Conclusion: Despite a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis, including predominantly unpublished data, no health service intervention beyond usual care was found to reduce acute hospital use in community-dwelling persons with dementia. An important increase in service use may be associated with these interventions. Further research is urgently needed to identify effective interventions for this vulnerable population to limit rising acute hospital use, associated costs and adverse outcomes. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42016046444. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multimorbidity–having two or more coexisting chronic conditions–is highly prevalent, costly, and disabling to older adults. Questions remain regarding chronic diseases accumulation over time and whether this differs by racial and ethnic background. Answering this knowledge gap, this study identifies differences in rates of chronic disease accumulation and multimorbidity development among non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic study participants starting in middle-age and followed up to 16 years. Methods and findings: We analyzed data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a biennial, ongoing, publicly-available, longitudinal nationally-representative study of middle-aged and older adults in the United States. We assessed the change in chronic disease burden among 8,872 non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic participants who were 51–55 years of age at their first interview any time during the study period (1998–2014) and all subsequent follow-up observations until 2014. Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more of seven somatic chronic diseases: arthritis, cancer, heart disease (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, angina, congestive heart failure, or other heart problems), diabetes, hypertension, lung disease, and stroke. We used negative binomial generalized estimating equation models to assess the trajectories of multimorbidity burden over time for non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic participants. In covariate-adjusted models non-Hispanic black respondents had initial chronic disease counts that were 28% higher than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 1.279, 95% CI 1.201, 1.361), while Hispanic respondents had initial chronic disease counts that were 15% lower than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 0.852, 95% CI 0.775, 0.938). Non-Hispanic black respondents had rates of chronic disease accumulation that were 1.1% slower than non-Hispanic whites (IRR 0.989, 95% CI 0.981, 0.998) and Hispanic respondents had rates of chronic disease accumulation that were 1.5% faster than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 1.015, 95% CI 1.002, 1.028). Using marginal effects commands, this translates to predicted values of chronic disease for white respondents who begin the study period with 0.98 chronic diseases and end with 2.8 chronic diseases; black respondents who begin the study period with 1.3 chronic diseases and end with 3.3 chronic diseases; and Hispanic respondents who begin the study period with 0.84 chronic diseases and end with 2.7 chronic diseases. Conclusions: Middle-aged non-Hispanic black adults start at a higher level of chronic disease burden and develop multimorbidity at an earlier age, on average, than their non-Hispanic white counterparts. Hispanics, on the other hand, accumulate chronic disease at a faster rate relative to non-Hispanic white adults. Our findings have important implications for improving primary and secondary chronic disease prevention efforts among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic Americans to stave off greater multimorbidity-related health impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As emerging and re-emerging infectious arboviruses like dengue, chikungunya, and Zika threaten new populations worldwide, officials scramble to assess local severity and transmissibility, with little to no epidemiological history to draw upon. Indirect estimates of risk from vector habitat suitability maps are prone to great uncertainty, while direct estimates from epidemiological data are only possible after cases accumulate and, given environmental constraints on arbovirus transmission, cannot be widely generalized beyond the focal region. Combining these complementary methods, we use disease importation and transmission data to improve the accuracy and precision of a priori ecological risk estimates. We demonstrate this approach by estimating the spatiotemporal risks of Zika virus transmission throughout Texas, a high-risk region in the southern United States. Our estimates are, on average, 80% lower than published ecological estimates—with only six of 254 Texas counties deemed capable of sustaining a Zika epidemic—and they are consistent with the number of autochthonous cases detected in 2017. Importantly our method provides a framework for model comparison, as our mechanistic understanding of arbovirus transmission continues to improve. Real-time updating of prior risk estimates as importations and outbreaks arise can thereby provide critical, early insight into local transmission risks as emerging arboviruses expand their global reach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Assessing the epidemiological association between herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and type 2 (HSV-2) infections in the United States, and characterizing the trends in the standardized HSV-1 and HSV-2 antibody prevalences (seroprevalences), 1999–2016. Methods: Source of data was the cross-sectional and nationally-representative biennial surveys of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). All nine NHANES rounds for 1999–2016 were included in analysis. Datasets of these rounds were combined and analyzed accounting for survey design and applying weighting procedures. Logistic regressions were used to identify associations with seropositivity. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: Odds of HSV-1 infection declined by 2.84% (95% CI: 1.70%-4.00%) annually among men, and by 2.22% (95% CI: 1.23%-3.21%) among women. Declines were highest at younger ages. Odds of HSV-2 infection declined by 2.23% (95% CI: 0.71%-3.82%) annually among men, and by 2.89% (95% CI: 1.57%-4.28%) among women. Odds ratio of the association between HSV-2 and HSV-1 seropositivity was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.60–0.84) for men and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72–0.91) for women, after adjustment for age, ethnicity, and year. Conclusion: HSV-1 and HSV-2 seroprevalences showed a strong declining trend for at least two decades, for both sexes and for the different ethnicities, possibly reflecting improvements in hygiene and living conditions (for HSV-1), and safer sexual behavior (for HSV-2). HSV-1 seroprevalence declines are most pronounced among young individuals. There is evidence for cross protection between the two infections, suggestive of HSV-1 seropositivity being partially protective against HSV-2 infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Reviews of violence against children in disaster settings focus on armed conflict. Little is understood about natural disasters which has implications in planning humanitarian response. We examined the magnitude and direction of the association between exposure to natural disasters and physical, emotional, and sexual violence against children, and assessed the quality of the evidence. Methods: We searched 15 health and social science databases from first record until May 16, 2018. Publications describing all types of quantitative study design were eligible for inclusion. We presented study characteristics and quality in a narrative form and generated pooled estimates using a three-level random effects model. We evaluated Cochrane’s Q with p-values below 0.10 and radial plots to assess heterogeneity. Planned subgroup analyses explored differential results by violence form, study design, and analysis method. Results: 11 publications met inclusion criteria. The majority were cross-sectional studies examining physical or sexual violence in the United States. We found no evidence of a consistent association or directional influence between natural disasters and violence against children. Combined categorical violence outcomes had substantial heterogeneity [Q (df = 66) = 252.83, p < 0.001]. Subgroups without evidence of heterogeneity had confidence intervals that included a possible null effect. Our findings were mainly limited by inconsistencies in operational definitions of violence, a lack of representative sampling, and unclear establishment of temporal order between natural disaster exposure and violence outcomes. Conclusions: Based on the available evidence, we cannot confidently conclude that natural disasters increase the level or severity of violence against children above non-disaster settings, however heterogeneity and study quality hamper our ability to draw firm conclusions. More nuanced and rigorous research is needed to inform practice and policy as natural disasters increasingly affect human populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detection of clusters of Legionnaires’ disease, a leading waterborne cause of pneumonia, is challenging. Clusters vary in size and scope, are associated with a diverse range of aerosol-producing devices, including exposures such as whirlpool spas and hotel water systems typically associated with travel, and can occur without an easily identified exposure source. Recently, jurisdictions have begun to use SaTScan spatio-temporal analysis software prospectively as part of routine cluster surveillance. We used data collected by the Active Bacterial Core surveillance platform to assess the ability of SaTScan to detect Legionnaires’ disease clusters. We found that SaTScan analysis using traditional surveillance data and geocoded residential addresses was unable to detect many common Legionnaires’ disease cluster types, such as those associated with travel or a prolonged time between cases. Additionally, signals from an analysis designed to simulate a real-time search for clusters did not align with clusters identified by traditional surveillance methods or a retrospective SaTScan analysis. A geospatial analysis platform better tailored to the unique characteristics of Legionnaires’ disease epidemiology would improve cluster detection and decrease time to public health action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The maximum entropy model, a commonly used species distribution model (SDM) normally combines observations of the species occurrence with environmental information to predict the geographic distributions of animal or plant species. However, it only produces point estimates for the probability of species existence. To understand the uncertainty of the point estimates, we analytically derived the variance of the outputs of the maximum entropy model from the variance of the input. We applied the analytic method to obtain the standard deviation of dengue importation probability and Aedes aegypti suitability. Dengue occurrence data and Aedes aegypti mosquito abundance data, combined with demographic and environmental data, were applied to obtain point estimates and the corresponding variance. To address the issue of not having the true distributions for comparison, we compared and contrasted the performance of the analytical expression with the bootstrap method and Poisson point process model which proved of equivalence of maximum entropy model with the assumption of independent point locations. Both Dengue importation probability and Aedes aegypti mosquito suitability examples show that the methods generate comparatively the same results and the analytic method we introduced is dramatically faster than the bootstrap method and directly apply to maximum entropy model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disease spread in populations is a consequence of the interaction between host, pathogen, and environment, i.e. the epidemiological triad. Yet the influences of each triad component may vary dramatically for different settings. Comparison of environmental, demographic, socio-economic, and historical backgrounds may support tailoring site-specific control measures. Because of the long-term survival of Bacillus anthracis, Anthrax is a suitable example for studying the influence of triad components in different endemic settings. We compared the spatiotemporal patterns of historic animal Anthrax records in two endemic areas, located at northern latitudes in the western and eastern hemispheres. Our goal was to compare the spatiotemporal patterns in Anthrax progression, intensity, direction, and recurrence (disease hot spots), in relation to epidemiological factors and potential trigger events. Reported animal cases in Minnesota, USA (n = 289 cases between 1912 and 2014) and Kazakhstan (n = 3,997 cases between 1933 and 2014) were analyzed using the spatiotemporal directionality test and the spatial scan statistic. Over the last century Anthrax occurrence in Minnesota was sporadic whereas Kazakhstan experienced a long-term epidemic. Nevertheless, the seasonality was comparable between sites, with a peak in August. Declining number of cases at both sites was attributed to vaccination and control measures. The spatiotemporal directionality test detected a relative northeastern directionality in disease spread for long-term trends in Minnesota, whereas a southwestern directionality was observed in Kazakhstan. In terms of recurrence, the maximum timespans between cases at the same location were 55 and 60 years for Minnesota and Kazakhstan, respectively. Disease hotspots were recognized in both settings, with spatially overlapping clusters years apart. Distribution of the spatiotemporal cluster radii between study sites supported suggestion of site-specific control zones. Spatiotemporal patterns of Anthrax occurrence in both endemic regions were attributed to multiple potential trigger events including major river floods, changes in land use, agriculture, and susceptible livestock populations. Results here help to understand the long-term epidemiological dynamics of Anthrax while providing suggestions to the design and implementation of prevention and control programs, in endemic settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adequate identification of estrus is crucial to achieve satisfactory reproductive performance in dairy farms. Even though several studies evaluated expression and identification of estrus at the cow level, limited data exist regarding estrus identification parameters at the herd level. The objectives of this study were to use data from large dairy farms located in Kansas to describe temporal patterns of insemination risk (IR), and to investigate associations between IR and various herd-level factors. Nine herds that housed lactating cows in dry-lots or free-stalls were used in the study. Data from 2012 to 2017 were extracted and categorized in 21-day intervals in a total of 85 cycles, which were classified by season of the year. Mean (SD) IR was 67.6% (4.0) and increased 0.067% (0.009) for each 21-day cycle during the period evaluated. Annual, semi-annual, and trimestral IR peaks were detected using autoregressive integrated moving average analysis. Most of these variations, however, were considered minimal and likely not of economic concern for commercial herds. Insemination risk was greatest during autumn, but did not differ among winter, spring, and summer. Insemination risk was not associated with herd milk yield per season, incidence risk of mastitis during first 21 days in milk, proportion of primiparous cows in the milking herd, or voluntary waiting period of multiparous cows. Herds that housed lactating dairy cows in dry-lots had IR 2.4 percentage points greater than free-stall herds. In addition, mortality during the first 60 days in milk, and category of voluntary waiting period for primiparous cows were associated with IR. In conclusion, seasonal variability in IR was minimal, with increased values observed during the autumn. Insemination risk was greater for dry-lot than free-stall herds. In addition, reduced mortality of lactating cows by 60 days in milk and longer voluntary waiting period for primiparous cows seem to favor greater IR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale: As part of the End TB Strategy, the World Health Organization calls for low-tuberculosis (TB) incidence settings to achieve pre-elimination (<10 cases per million) and elimination (<1 case per million) by 2035 and 2050, respectively. These targets require testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Objectives: To estimate the ability and costs of testing and treatment for LTBI to reach pre-elimination and elimination targets in California. Methods: We created an individual-based epidemic model of TB, calibrated to historical cases. We evaluated the effects of increased testing (QuantiFERON-TB Gold) and treatment (three months of isoniazid and rifapentine). We analyzed four test and treat targeting strategies: (1) individuals with medical risk factors (MRF), (2) non-USB, (3) both non-USB and MRF, and (4) all Californians. For each strategy, we estimated the effects of increasing test and treat by a factor of 2, 4, or 10 from the base case. We estimated the number of TB cases occurring and prevented, and net and incremental costs from 2017 to 2065 in 2015 U.S. dollars. Efficacy, costs, adverse events, and treatment dropout were estimated from published data. We estimated the cost per case averted and per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Measurements and main results: In the base case, 106,000 TB cases are predicted to 2065. Pre-elimination was achieved by 2065 in three scenarios: a 10-fold increase in the non-USB and persons with MRF (by 2052), and 4- or 10-fold increase in all Californians (by 2058 and 2035, respectively). TB elimination was not achieved by any intervention scenario. The most aggressive strategy, 10-fold in all Californians, achieved a case rate of 8 (95% UI 4–16) per million by 2050. Of scenarios that reached pre-elimination, the incremental net cost was $20 billion (non-USB and MRF) to $48 billion. These had an incremental cost per QALY of $657,000 to $3.1 million. A more efficient but somewhat less effective single-lifetime test strategy reached as low as $80,000 per QALY. Conclusions: Substantial gains can be made in TB control in coming years by scaling-up current testing and treatment in non-USB and those with medical risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

No studies have investigated the association between living arrangements and disability-free life expectancy in the United States, nor worldwide. This study aims to examine the differences in total and disability-free life expectancy among older Americans according to living arrangements. Data from the Health and Retirement Study (1998 to 2014) for non-Hispanic whites aged 50 and over (N = 21,612). Disability-free life expectancy by gender, living arrangement, and education are obtained from incidence-based multistate life tables. Overall, those who live only with their spouses/partners live 1–19 years longer with 3–25 more years without disability and 1–7 fewer years with disability than do those with other living arrangements. Among those with the same living arrangement, the higher educated live up to 6 years longer with up to 8 more years in a disability-free state and up to 2 fewer years in a disabled state. The study shows strong association between living arrangement and disability-free life expectancy by gender and education. Long-term care policy should take into account the length of life with/without disability by living arrangements and socioeconomic status and make use of the potential family resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breweries across the country are investing in energy efficient and low-carbon brewing practices. Drawing insights from the sustainable consumption and ecological economics literature, this analysis evaluates whether consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable beer and what predicts the value of the premium. Based on a survey of beer consumers from across the U.S. that contained one of two willingness-to-pay exercises, we evaluate what respondent attributes are associated with a higher willingness-to-pay for sustainably brewed beer. We find that the majority of beer consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable beer. Consumers who are prepared to pay a premium tend to already pay more per unit of beer, are more aware of their purchasing behavior and the manner in which their consumption patterns may affect the environment, and pursue lifestyles based on professional advancement, helping the environment, and helping other causes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: No prior study to our knowledge has examined the joint contribution of a polygenic risk score (PRS), mammographic density (MD), and postmenopausal endogenous hormone levels-all well-confirmed risk factors for invasive breast cancer-to existing breast cancer risk prediction models.Methods and Findings: We conducted a nested case-control study within the prospective Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II including 4,006 cases and 7,874 controls ages 34-70 years up to 1 June 2010. We added a breast cancer PRS using 67 single nucleotide polymorphisms, MD, and circulating testosterone, estrone sulfate, and prolactin levels to existing risk models. We calculated area under the curve (AUC), controlling for age and stratified by menopausal status, for the 5-year absolute risk of invasive breast cancer. We estimated the population distribution of 5-year predicted risks for models with and without biomarkers. For the Gail model, the AUC improved (p-values < 0.001) from 55.9 to 64.1 (8.2 units) in premenopausal women (Gail + PRS + MD), from 55.5 to 66.0 (10.5 units) in postmenopausal women not using hormone therapy (HT) (Gail + PRS + MD + all hormones), and from 58.0 to 64.9 (6.9 units) in postmenopausal women using HT (Gail + PRS + MD + prolactin). For the Rosner-Colditz model, the corresponding AUCs improved (p-values < 0.001) by 5.7, 6.2, and 6.5 units. For estrogen-receptor-positive tumors, among postmenopausal women not using HT, the AUCs improved (p-values < 0.001) by 14.3 units for the Gail model and 7.3 units for the Rosner-Colditz model. Additionally, the percentage of 50-year-old women predicted to be at more than twice 5-year average risk (≥2.27%) was 0.2% for the Gail model alone and 6.6% for the Gail + PRS + MD + all hormones model. Limitations of our study included the limited racial/ethnic diversity of our cohort, and that general population exposure distributions were unavailable for some risk factors.Conclusions: In this study, the addition of PRS, MD, and endogenous hormones substantially improved existing breast cancer risk prediction models. Further studies will be needed to confirm these findings and to determine whether improved risk prediction models have practical value in identifying women at higher risk who would most benefit from chemoprevention, screening, and other risk-reducing strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Cardiac Arrest Survival Postresuscitation In-hospital (CASPRI) score is a useful tool for predicting neurological outcome following in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA), and was derived from a cohort selected from the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry between 2000 and 2009 in the United States. In an East Asian population, we aimed to identify the factors associated with outcomes of resuscitated IHCA patients and assess the validity of the CASPRI score. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted in a single centre in Taiwan. Patients with IHCA between 2006 and 2014 were screened. Results: Among the 796 included patients, 94 (11.8%) patients achieved neurologically intact survival. Multivariable logistic regression analyses identified factors significantly associated with neurological outcome. Six of these factors were also components of the CASPRI score, including duration of resuscitation, neurological status before IHCA, malignant disease, initial arrest rhythms, renal insufficiency and age. In univariate logistic regression analysis, the CASPRI score was significantly associated with neurological outcome (odds ratio [OR]: 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.80–0.87); the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74–0.84). Conclusion: In this retrospective study conducted in a single centre at Taiwan, we identified the common prognosticators of IHCA shared by both East Asian and Western societies. As a composite prognosticator, CASPRI score predicts outcomes with excellent accuracy among successfully resuscitated IHCA patients in an East Asian population. This tool allows accurate IHCA prognostication in an East Asian population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The aim of this study was to clarify whether serum matrix metalloproteinase 3 (MMP-3) levels are associated with an effect of iguratimod as add-on therapy to biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: Forty three patients with RA were treated with iguratimod as add-on therapy to bDMARDs. They were classified into remission and non-remission groups at 24 weeks of iguratimod therapy. Remission was defined as a state with a disease activity score (DAS) <2.6 in 28 joints (termed DAS remission) and total power Doppler ultrasound (US) score <3 (termed US remission). The serum MMP-3 levels at baseline and at 12 weeks were compared between these two groups. Results: There were no significant differences in the serum MMP-3 levels at baseline between the DAS and US remission groups and the non-remission group. The serum MMP-3 levels at 12 weeks in the US remission group were significantly lower than those in the non-remission group. The ratios of the serum MMP-3 levels at baseline to those at 12 weeks in both the DAS and US remission groups were significantly lower than those in the non-remission group. An MMP-3 ratio <0.86 was determined as the cut-off value to predict US remission at 24 weeks. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the ratios of the serum MMP-3 levels at baseline to those at 12 weeks could be used to predict remission in RA patients who are administered iguratimod as an add-on to bDMARDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study’s objective was to describe long-term trends and patterns in first cigarette use (cigarette initiation) and daily cigarette use (daily initiation) among youth and young adults in the U.S. We used cross-sectional survey data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2002–2015, to estimate annual incidence of first cigarette use (N = 270,556) and first daily cigarette use (N = 373,464) for each year by age groups, race/ethnicity and gender, examining trends over time and the average annual change in initiation for each group. Several clear patterns emerged: 1) cigarette initiation and daily initiation significantly decreased over time among those aged 12–14 and 15–17 and these trends were consistent among nearly all racial/ethnic and gender subgroups; 2) among 18–21 year olds, cigarette initiation sharply increased through 2009, surpassing rates among 15–17 year olds, and sharply declined through 2015 while remaining higher than rates among the younger group, and this trend was consistent for almost all racial/ethnic subgroups; 3) daily initiation for those aged 18–21 significantly declined, and this was significant among most subgroups 4) there was no change in cigarette initiation and daily initiation for 22–25 year olds overall and most subgroups; 5) there was a significant increase in cigarette initiation for 22–25 year old Hispanics males and daily initiation for 22–25 year old males. This study provides a comprehensive look at trends in cigarette and daily initiation among U.S. youth and young adults. Despite notable declines in smoking initiation among youth and young adult populations over the last two decades, targeted prevention and policy efforts are needed for subgroups at higher risk, including young adults and Hispanic males. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Early diagnosis of cutaneous melanoma is critical in preventing melanoma-associated deaths, but the role of primary care providers (PCPs) in diagnosing melanoma is underexplored. We aimed to explore the association of PCP density with melanoma incidence and mortality. Methods: All cases of cutaneous melanoma diagnosed in the United States from 2008–2012 and reported in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were analyzed in 2016. County-level primary care physician density was obtained from the Area Health Resources File (AHRF). We conducted multivariate linear regression using 1) average annual melanoma incidence or 2) average annual melanoma mortality by county as primary outcomes, adjusting for demographic confounders and dermatologist density. Cox proportional hazard regression was conducted using individual outcome data from SEER with the same covariates. Results: Across 611 counties, 167,305 cases of melanoma were analyzed. Per 100,000 people, an additional 10 PCPs per county was associated with 1.62 additional cases of melanoma per year (95% CI 1.06–2.18, p<0.001). This increased incidence occurred disproportionally in early-stage melanoma (Stage 0: 0.69 cases (0.38–1.00), p<0.001; Stage I: 0.63 cases (0.37–0.89), p<0.001; Stage II: 0.11 cases (0.03–0.19), p = 0.005). There was no statistically significant association between PCP density and incidence of stage III or IV melanoma, or with melanoma-specific mortality. Survival analysis demonstrated elimination of 5-year post-diagnosis mortality risk in medically underserved counties after adjusting for stage. Conclusions: Higher densities of PCPs may be linked to increased diagnosis of early-stage melanoma without corresponding decreases in late-stage diagnoses or melanoma-associated mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For patients with chronic lower respiratory disease, hypobaric hypoxia at a high altitude is considered a risk factor for mortality. However, the effects of residing at moderately high altitudes remain unclear. We investigated the association between moderate altitude and chronic lower respiratory disease mortality. In particular, we examined the lower 48 United States counties for age-adjusted chronic lower respiratory disease mortality rates, altitude, and socioeconomic factors, including tobacco use, per capita income, population density, sex ratio, unemployment, poverty, and education between 1979 and 1998. The socioeconomic factors were incorporated into the correlation analysis as potential covariates. Considerable positive (R = 0.235; P <0.001) and partial (R = 0.260; P <0.001) correlations were observed between altitude and chronic lower respiratory disease mortality rate. In the subgroup with high COPD prevalence subgroup, even stronger positive (R = 0.346; P <0.001) and partial (R = 0.423, P <0.001) correlations were observed. Multivariate regression analysis of all available socioeconomic factors revealed that additional knowledge on altitude improved the adjusted R2 values from 0.128 to 0.186 for all counties and from 0.301 to 0.421 for counties with high COPD prevalence. We concluded that in the lower 48 United States counties, even a moderate altitude may pose considerable risks in patients with chronic lower respiratory disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Promising school policies to improve children’s diets include providing fresh fruits and vegetables (F&V) and competitive food restrictions on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), yet the impact of national implementation of these policies in US schools on cardiometabolic disease (CMD) risk factors and outcomes is not known. Our objective was to estimate the impact of national implementation of F&V provision and SSB restriction in US elementary, middle, and high schools on dietary intake and body mass index (BMI) in children and future CMD mortality. Methods: We used comparative risk assessment (CRA) frameworks to model the impacts of these policies with input parameters from nationally representative surveys, randomized-controlled trials, and systematic reviews and meta-analyses. For children ages 5–18 years, this incorporated national data on current dietary intakes and BMI, impacts of these policies on diet, and estimated effects of dietary changes on BMI. In adults ages 25 and older, we further incorporated the sustainability of dietary changes to adulthood, effects of dietary changes on CMD, and national CMD death statistics, modeling effects if these policies had been in place when current US adults were children. Uncertainty across inputs was incorporated using 1000 Monte Carlo simulations. Results: National F&V provision would increase daily fruit intake in children by as much as 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 15.4, 37.7%), and would have small effects on vegetable intake. SSB restriction would decrease daily SSB intake by as much as 26.5% (95% UI: 6.4, 46.4%), and reduce BMI by as much as 0.7% (95% UI: 0.2, 1.2%). If F&V provision and SSB restriction were nationally implemented, an estimated 22,383 CMD deaths/year (95% UI: 18735, 25930) would be averted. Conclusion: National school F&V provision and SSB restriction policies implemented in elementary, middle, and high schools could improve diet and BMI in children and reduce CMD mortality later in life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The social and economic consequences of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–9 has had serious impacts on population health, economic prospects, and overall wellbeing in all generations, particularly Millennials, Generation X, and Baby Boomers. The ways in which intergenerational inequality and global economic crises have affected population health, particularly with respect to excessive drinking and substance use in disadvantaged population groups has been understudied. Consequently, in this article, we seek to characterise the effects of the GFC on national trends in binge alcohol and substance use among Millennials, Generation X, and Baby Boomers. By doing so, we aim to contribute to a fuller understanding of the ways in which socioeconomic disadvantage engendered by the GFC has disparately affected the wellbeing of these generational cohorts. Methods and findings: We present results from National Survey on Drug Use and Health from 2007–16 to characterise binge alcohol and substance use among different generational cohorts in the United States during and after the GFC. Bivariate descriptive analysis and maximum-likelihood logit regressions focused on: (a) individual substances and binge drinking, (b) poly-use and (c) any use to simultaneously model how socioeconomic, demographic, and health characteristics were related to past-month substance use and to report the social, economic, and demographic correlates of substance use. Socioeconomic vulnerability was captured on a five-point scale comprised of: (1) health insurance status, (2) government assistance, (3) income, (4) self rated health, and (5) employment status. Millennials showed generally higher risk of binge alcohol and substance use during 2007–16 than Generation X, while Baby Boomers generally exhibited lower risk. Comparison of individual and poly-use patterns for the birth cohorts before and after reveals: Millennials were at significantly increased risk of use of binge alcohol (AOR = 1.51; 95% CI = 1.46–1.56), cocaine (AOR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.03–1.37), heroin (AOR = 1.39; 95% CI = 1.01–1.91), and oxycontin (AOR = 2.33; 95% CI = 1.74–3.12) than Gen X while Baby Boomers were at significantly reduced risk of all substances. Nevertheless, Millennials were at significantly reduced risk of crack use (AOR = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.25–0.43) and poly-use (AOR = 0.56; 95% CI = 0.45–0.70) compared to Gen X. These differences may be related to measures of austerity and socioeconomic vulnerability. Millennials exhibited the highest vulnerability related to austerity with an average vulnerability score of 0.97 (95% CI = 0.96–0.98) while Baby Boomers exhibited the lowest average vulnerability score of 0.65 (95% CI = 0.64–0.66) with Generation X in between with 0.72 (95% CI = 0.71–0.73). Increased social and economic vulnerability after the 2007 crisis is strongly associated with higher rates of substance use in all generations. Conclusion: Millennials have been especially affected by socioeconomic changes associated with the GFC as reflected by their heightened vulnerability and increased use of binge alcohol and other substances compared to preceding generations. These findings suggest that attention is needed to address disparities in socioeconomic vulnerability, relationships to substance use and overall mental health of Millennials to mitigate the potential long term negative impacts of the GFC. In the context of a continuing international opioid and heroin crisis, the ways in which Millennials have been differentially affected warrants much greater attention both from policymakers and from researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tenofovir (TFV), a nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor, requires two phosphorylation steps to form a competitive inhibitor of HIV reverse transcriptase. Adenylate kinase 2 (AK2) has been previously demonstrated to phosphorylate tenofovir to tenofovir-monophosphate, while creatine kinase, muscle (CKM), pyruvate kinase, muscle (PKM) and pyruvate kinase, liver and red blood cell (PKLR) each have been found to phosphorylate tenofovir-monophosphate to the pharmacologically active tenofovir-diphosphate. In the present study, genomic DNA isolated from dried blood spots collected from 505 participants from Bangkok, Thailand; Cape Town, South Africa; and New York City, USA were examined for variants in AK2, CKM, PKM, and PKLR using next-generation sequencing. The bioinformatics tools SIFT and PolyPhen predicted that 19 of the 505 individuals (3.7% frequency) carried variants in at least one kinase that would result in a decrease or loss of enzymatic activity. To functionally test these predictions, AK2 and AK2 variants were expressed in and purified from E. coli, followed by investigation of their activities towards tenofovir. Interestingly, we found that purified AK2 had the ability to phosphorylate tenofovir-monophosphate to tenofovir-diphosphate in addition to phosphorylating tenofovir to tenofovir-monophosphate. Further, four of the six AK2 variants predicted to result in a loss or decrease of enzyme function exhibited a ≥30% decrease in activity towards tenofovir in our in vitro assays. Of note, an AK2 K28R variant resulted in a 72% and 81% decrease in the formation of tenofovir-monophosphate and tenofovir-diphosphate, respectively. These data suggest that there are naturally occurring genetic variants that could potentially impact TFV activation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating suicides following the death of Robin Williams, a beloved actor and comedian, on August 11th, 2014, we used time-series analysis to estimate the expected number of suicides during the months following Williams’ death. Monthly suicide count data in the US (1999–2015) were from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). Expected suicides were calculated using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages model to account for both the seasonal patterns and autoregression. Time-series models indicated that we would expect 16,849 suicides from August to December 2014; however, we observed 18,690 suicides in that period, suggesting an excess of 1,841 cases (9.85% increase). Although excess suicides were observed across gender and age groups, males and persons aged 30–44 had the greatest increase in excess suicide events. This study documents associations between Robin Williams’ death and suicide deaths in the population thereafter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1976, the United States has seen over 1,400 judicial executions, and these have been highly concentrated in only a few states and counties. The number of executions across counties appears to fit a stretched distribution. These distributions are typically reflective of self-reinforcing processes where the probability of observing an event increases for each previous event. To examine these processes, we employ two-pronged empirical strategy. First, we utilize bootstrapped Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to determine whether the pattern of executions reflect a stretched distribution, and confirm that they do. Second, we test for event-dependence using the Conditional Frailty Model. Our tests estimate the monthly hazard of an execution in a given county, accounting for the number of previous executions, homicides, poverty, and population demographics. Controlling for other factors, we find that the number of prior executions in a county increases the probability of the next execution and accelerates its timing. Once a jurisdiction goes down a given path, the path becomes self-reinforcing, causing the counties to separate out into those never executing (the vast majority of counties) and those which use the punishment frequently. This finding is of great legal and normative concern, and ultimately, may not be consistent with the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: As gentrification continues in New York City as well as other urban areas, residents of lower socioeconomic status maybe at higher risk for residential displacement. Yet, there have been few quantitative assessments of the health impacts of displacement. The objective of this paper is to assess the association between displacement and healthcare access and mental health among the original residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City. Methods: We used 2 data sources: 1) 2005–2014 American Community Surveys to identify gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City, and 2) 2006–2014 Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System. Our cohort included 12,882 residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in 2006 who had records of emergency department visits or hospitalization at least once every 2 years in 2006–2014. Rates of emergency department visits and hospitalizations post-baseline were compared between residents who were displaced and those who remained. Results: During 2006–2014, 23% were displaced. Compared with those who remained, displaced residents were more likely to make emergency department visits and experience hospitalizations, mainly due to mental health (Rate Ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval = 1.5, 2.2), after controlling for baseline demographics, health status, healthcare utilization, residential movement, and the neighborhood of residence in 2006. Conclusions: These findings suggest negative impacts of displacement on healthcare access and mental health, particularly among adults living in urban areas and with a history of frequent emergency department visits or hospitalizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Military veterans may have higher rates of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) mortality than non-veterans. Few studies, with sparse exposure information and mixed results, have studied relationships between military-related factors and ALS survival. We evaluated associations between military-related factors and ALS survival among U.S. military veteran cases. Methods: We followed 616 medical record-confirmed cases from enrollment (2005–2010) in the Genes and Environmental Exposures in Veterans with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis study until death or July 25, 2013, whichever came first. We ascertained vital status information from several sources within the Department of Veterans Affairs. We obtained information regarding military service, deployments, and 39 related exposures via standardized telephone interviews. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals. We adjusted for potential confounding and missing covariate data biases via inverse probability weights. We also used inverse probability weights to adjust for potential selection bias among a case group that included a disproportionate number of long-term survivors at enrollment. Results: We observed 446 deaths during 24,267 person-months of follow-up (median follow-up: 28 months). Survival was shorter for cases who served before 1950, were deployed to World War II, or mixed and applied burning agents, with HRs between 1.58 and 2.57. Longer survival was associated with exposure to: paint, solvents, or petrochemical substances; local food not provided by the Armed Forces; or burning agents or Agent Orange in the field with HRs between 0.56 and 0.73. Conclusions: Although most military-related factors were not associated with survival, associations we observed with shorter survival are potentially important because of the large number of military veterans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While factors such as genetics may mediate the relationship between height and mortality, evidence suggests that larger body size may be an important risk indicator of reduced lifespan longevity in particular. This study critically examined this relationship in professional basketball players. We examined living and deceased players who have played in the National Basketball Association (debut between 1946–2010) and/or the American Basketball Association (1967–1976) using descriptive and Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. The cut-off date for death data collection was December 11, 2015. Overall, 3,901 living and deceased players were identified and had a mean height of 197.78 cm (± 9.29, Range: 160.02–231.14), and of those, 787 former players were identified as deceased with a mean height of 193.88 cm (± 8.83, Range: 167.6–228.6). Descriptive findings indicated that the tallest players (top 5%) died younger than the shortest players (bottom 5%) in all but one birth decade (1941–1950). Similarly, survival analyses showed a significant relationship between height and lifespan longevity when both dichotomizing [χ2 (1) = 13.04, p < .05] and trichotomizing [χ2 (2) = 18.05, p < .05] the predictor variable height per birth decade, where taller players had a significantly higher mortality risk compared to shorter players through median (HR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.13–1.50, p < .05) and trichotomized tertile split (HR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.18–1.68, p <. 05; tallest 33.3% compared to shortest 33.3%) analyses. The uniqueness of examining the height-longevity hypothesis in this relatively homogeneous sub-population should be considered when interpreting these results. Further understanding of the potential risks of early mortality can help generate discourse regarding potential at-risk cohorts of the athlete population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To synthesize outputs and outcomes of community-based tuberculosis targeted testing and treatment (TTT) programs in foreign-born populations (FBP) in the United States (US). Methods: We systematically searched five bibliographic databases and other key resources. Two reviewers independently applied eligibility criteria to screen citations and extracted data from included studies. We excluded studies that contained <50% FBP participants or that examined steps only after diagnosis of latent TB infection (LTBI). We stratified studies as majority FBP (50–90%) and predominantly FBP (>90%). We used random-effects meta-analytic models to calculate pooled proportions and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for community-based TTT cascade steps (e.g., recruited, tested and treated), and used them to create two hypothetical cascades for 100 individuals. Results: Fifteen studies conducted in 10 US states met inclusion criteria. Studies were heterogeneous in recruitment strategies and mostly recruited participants born in Latin America. Of 100 hypothetical participants (predominantly FBP) reached by community-based TTT, 40.4 (95% CI 28.6 to 50.1) would have valid test results, 15.7 (95% CI 9.9 to 21.8) would test positive, and 3.6 (95% CI 1.4 to 6.0) would complete LTBI treatment. Likewise, of 100 hypothetical participants (majority FBP) reached, 77.9 (95% CI 54.0 to 92.1) would have valid test results, 26.5 (95% CI 18.0 to 33.5) would test positive, and 5.4 (95% CI 2.1 to 9.0) would complete LTBI treatment. Of those with valid test results, pooled proportions of LTBI test positive for predominantly FBP and majority FBP were 38.9% (95% CI 28.6 to 49.8) and 34.3% (95% CI 29.3 to 39.5), respectively. Conclusions: We observed high attrition throughout the care cascade in FBP participating in LTBI community-based TTT studies. Few studies included cascade steps prior to LTBI diagnosis, limiting our review findings. Moreover, Asia-born populations in the US are substantially underrepresented in the FBP community-based TTT literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Toxocariasis is one of the most common neglected infections of poverty in the U.S. with a reported National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III (1988–1994) seroprevalence of 13.9% based on enzyme immunoassay testing. We reviewed NHANES data from 2011–2014 to assess current levels. Sera collected from NHANES 2011–2014 participants six years and older were tested for exposure using rTc-CTL-1 antigen, a more sensitive and specific recombinant antigen for IgG antibodies for Toxocara spp. These results were subdivided into children (age 6–17) and adults (age ≥ 18) and then compared between various sociodemographic characteristics. Given prior associations of Toxocara exposure with atopic disease and lead exposure, we also reviewed laboratory values including complete blood counts and blood and urine lead levels. Data from 13,509 individuals with Toxocara antibody results were examined including 3337 children (15.2%) and 10172 adults (84.8%). Overall seroprevalence was 5.1%. In adults increased antibody positivity occurred with non-White ethnicity, male gender, less than college-level education and lower income. Among children, increased antibody positivity was solely related to a lack of health insurance. Additionally, seropositivity was associated with increased blood lead and eosinophil levels in adults and both blood and urine lead levels in children. Relative to NHANES III (1988–1994), current data suggest an overall decrease in Toxocara spp. seroprevalence from 13.9% to 5.1%, however this may be artificially lowered due to difference in testing methods used. Persistent disparities appear to be associated with at-risk populations such as minority ethnicity and low socioeconomic status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper forecasts the 2016 canine Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence in the United States from eight climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast’s construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 11 million Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence test results for dogs conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011–2015. The forecast uses county-level data on eight predictive factors, including annual temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, county elevation, forestation coverage, surface water coverage, population density and median household income. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year’s regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence for the five-year period 2011–2015 is 0.902, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The weighted correlation (accounting for different sample sizes) between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence is 0.987, exhibiting that the proposed approach can be used to accurately forecast Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence beyond the accepted endemic range. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, Internet-based, U.S. nationally representative probability survey of 2,021 adults (975 men, 1,046 women) focused on a broad range of sexual behaviors. Individuals invited to participate were from the GfK KnowledgePanel®. The survey was titled the 2015 Sexual Exploration in America Study and survey completion took about 12 to 15 minutes. The survey was confidential and the researchers never had access to respondents’ identifiers. Respondents reported on demographic items, lifetime and recent sexual behaviors, and the appeal of 50+ sexual behaviors. Most (>80%) reported lifetime masturbation, vaginal sex, and oral sex. Lifetime anal sex was reported by 43% of men (insertive) and 37% of women (receptive). Common lifetime sexual behaviors included wearing sexy lingerie/underwear (75% women, 26% men), sending/receiving digital nude/semi-nude photos (54% women, 65% men), reading erotic stories (57% of participants), public sex (≥43%), role-playing (≥22%), tying/being tied up (≥20%), spanking (≥30%), and watching sexually explicit videos/DVDs (60% women, 82% men). Having engaged in threesomes (10% women, 18% men) and playful whipping (≥13%) were less common. Lifetime group sex, sex parties, taking a sexuality class/workshop, and going to BDSM parties were uncommon (each <8%). More Americans identified behaviors as “appealing” than had engaged in them. Romantic/affectionate behaviors were among those most commonly identified as appealing for both men and women. The appeal of particular behaviors was associated with greater odds that the individual had ever engaged in the behavior. This study contributes to our understanding of more diverse adult sexual behaviors than has previously been captured in U.S. nationally representative probability surveys. Implications for sexuality educators, clinicians, and individuals in the general population are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In recent decades the overall smoking prevalence in the US has fallen steadily. This study examines whether the same trend is seen in the Medicaid population. Methods and findings: National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data from 17 consecutive annual surveys from 1997 to 2013 (combined N = 514,043) were used to compare smoking trends for 4 insurance groups: Medicaid, the Uninsured, Private Insurance, and Other Coverage. Rates of chronic disease and psychological distress were also compared. Results: Adjusted smoking prevalence showed no detectable decline in the Medicaid population (from 33.8% in 1997 to 31.8% in 2013, trend test P = 0.13), while prevalence in the other insurance groups showed significant declines (38.6%-34.7% for the Uninsured, 21.3%-15.8% for Private Insurance, and 22.6%-16.8% for Other Coverage; all P’s<0.005). Among individuals who have ever smoked, Medicaid recipients were less likely to have quit (38.8%) than those in Private Insurance (62.3%) or Other Coverage (69.8%; both P’s<0.001). Smokers in Medicaid were more likely than those in Private Insurance and the Uninsured to have chronic disease (55.0% vs 37.3% and 32.4%, respectively; both P’s<0.01). Smokers in Medicaid were also more likely to experience severe psychological distress (16.2% for Medicaid vs 3.2% for Private Insurance and 7.6% for the Uninsured; both P’s<0.001). Conclusions: The high and relatively unchanging smoking prevalence in the Medicaid population, low quit ratio, and high rates of chronic disease and severe psychological distress highlight the need to focus on this population. A targeted and sustained campaign to help Medicaid recipients quit smoking is urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite known health disparities for sexual minorities, few studies have described sexual function by sexual orientation using a robust approach to measurement of sexual function. We compared recent sexual function and satisfaction by sexual orientation among English-speaking US adults. Methods and findings: Cross-sectional surveys were administered by KnowledgePanel® (GfK), an online panel that uses address-based probability sampling and is representative of the civilian, noninstitutionalized US population. Data were collected in 2013 from the general population (n = 3314, 35% response rate) and in 2014 from self-identified lesbian, gay, and bisexual adults (n = 1011, 50% response rate). Sexual function and satisfaction were measured using the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System® Sexual Function and Satisfaction measure version 2.0 (PROMIS SexFS v2). The PROMIS SexFS v2 is a comprehensive, customizable measurement system with evidence for validity in diverse populations. A score of 50 (SD 10) on each domain corresponds to the average for US adults sexually active in the past 30 days. We adjusted all statistics for the complex sample designs and report differences within each sex where the 95% CIs do not overlap, corresponding to p<0.01. Among US men who reported any sexual activity in the past 30 days, there were no differences in erectile function or orgasm-ability. Compared to heterosexual men, sexual minority men reported higher oral dryness and lower orgasm-pleasure and satisfaction. Compared to heterosexual men, gay men reported lower interest, higher anal discomfort and higher oral discomfort. Among sexually active women, there were no differences in the domains of vulvar discomfort-clitoral, orgasm-pleasure, or satisfaction. Compared to heterosexual women, sexual minority women reported higher oral dryness. Lesbian women reported lower vaginal discomfort than other women; lesbian women reported higher lubrication and orgasm-ability than heterosexual women. Bisexual women reported higher interest, higher vulvar discomfort-labial and higher anal discomfort than other women, as well as higher oral discomfort compared to heterosexual women. Conclusions: Recent sexual function and satisfaction differed by sexual orientation among US adults. Sexual minority men and women had decrements in domains of sexual function that have not traditionally been included in multi-dimensional self-report measures. Clinicians should make themselves aware of their patients’ sexual concerns and recognize that sexual minority patients may be more vulnerable to certain sexual difficulties than heterosexual patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: U.S. natural gas production increased 40% from 2000 to 2015. This growth is largely related to technological advances in horizontal drilling and high-volume hydraulic fracturing. Environmental exposures upon impacted communities are a significant public health concern. Noise associated with natural gas compressor stations has been identified as a major concern for nearby residents, though limited studies exist. Objectives: We conducted a pilot study to characterize noise levels in 11 homes located in Doddridge County, West Virginia, and determined whether these levels differed based on time of day, indoors vs. outdoors, and proximity of homes to natural gas compressor stations. We also compared noise levels at increasing distances from compressor stations to available noise guidelines, and evaluated low frequency noise presence. Methods: We collected indoor and outdoor 24-hour measurements (Leq, 24hr) in eight homes located within 750 meters (m) of the nearest compressor station and three control homes located >1000m. We then evaluated how A-weighted decibel (dBA) exposure levels differed based on factors outlined above. Results: The geometric mean (GM) for 24-hour outdoor noise levels at homes located <300m (Leq,24hr: 60.3 dBA; geometric standard deviation (GSD): 1.0) from the nearest compressor station was nearly 9 dBA higher than control homes (Leq,24hr: 51.6 dBA; GSD: 1.1). GM for 24 hour indoor noise for homes <300m (Leq,24hr: 53.4 dBA; GSD: 1.2) from the nearest compressor station was 11.2 dBA higher than control homes (Leq,24hr: 42.2 dBA; GSD: 1.1). Indoor average daytime noise for homes <300m of the nearest compressor stations were 13.1 dBA higher than control homes, while indoor nighttime readings were 9.4 dBA higher. Conclusions: Findings indicate that living near a natural gas compressor station could potentially result in high environmental noise exposures. Larger studies are needed to confirm these findings and evaluate potential health impacts and protection measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Norms and stigma regarding pregnancy decisions (parenting, adoption, and abortion) are salient to maternal well-being, particularly for groups disproportionately affected by unintended pregnancy. However, there are few validated measures of individual-level perceptions of norms and stigma around pregnancy decisions. Additionally, little is known about variation in the content of norms regarding pregnancy decisions, and in stigma related to violations of these norms, across socio-demographic groups. Methods: To create measures of perceived norms and stigma around pregnancy decisions, we developed and pre-tested 97 survey items using a mixed methods approach. The resulting survey was administered to 642 young adult women recruited from health department clinics and a public university campus in Birmingham, Alabama. Principal components factor analyses, reliability analyses, independent t-tests, and correlation analyses were conducted to establish the reliability and validity of scales. Additionally, multiple linear regression was used to identify demographic predictors of higher scale scores. Results: Factor analyses revealed four subscales for each pregnancy decision: conditional acceptability, anticipated reactions, stereotypes/misperceptions, and attitudes. The total scales and their subscales demonstrated good internal reliability (alpha coefficients 0.72–0.94). The mean scores for each scale were significantly associated with each other, with related measures, and differed by sociodemographic characteristics. Specifically, in adjusted analyses, women in the university setting and White women expressed more negative attitudes and stigma around parenting. Minority women endorsed more negative norms and stigma around adoption. Finally, women from the health department, White women, and religious women expressed more negative norms and stigma around abortion. Conclusion: Findings suggest that our multidimensional measures have good psychometric properties in our sample of young women in the U.S. South, and highlight the importance of conceptualizing and measuring norms and stigmas around all pregnancy decisions. These scales may be of use in research on pregnancy decision-making and evaluation of stigma-reduction interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the United States (US), cardiovascular (CV) disease accounts for nearly 20% of national health care expenses. Since costs are expected to increase with the aging population, informative research is necessary to address the growing burden of CV disease and sex-related differences in diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes. Hypertension is a major risk factor for CV disease and mortality. To evaluate whether there are sex-related differences in the effect of systolic blood pressure (SBP) on the risk of CV disease and mortality, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis. We conducted a comprehensive search using PubMed and Google Scholar to identify US-based studies published prior to 31 December, 2015. We identified eight publications for CV disease risk, which provided 9 female and 8 male effect size (ES) observations. We also identified twelve publications for CV mortality, which provided 10 female and 18 male ES estimates. Our meta-analysis estimated that the pooled ES for increased risk of CV disease per 10 mmHg increment in SBP was 25% for women (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.18, 1.32) and 15% for men (95% CI: 1.11, 1.19). The pooled increase in CV mortality per 10 mm Hg SBP increment was similar for both women and men (Women: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.23; Men: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.22). After adjusting for age and baseline SBP, the results demonstrated that the risk of CV disease per 10 mm Hg SBP increment for women was 1.1-fold higher than men (P<0.01; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.17). Heterogeneity was moderate but significant. There was no significant sex difference in CV mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cryptosporidium is a common cause of sporadic diarrheal disease and outbreaks in the United States. Increasingly, immunochromatography-based rapid cartridge assays (RCAs) are providing community laboratories with a quick cryptosporidiosis diagnostic method. In the current study, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Association of Public Health Laboratories (APHL), and four state health departments evaluated RCA-positive samples obtained during routine Cryptosporidium testing. All samples underwent “head to head” re-testing using both RCA and direct fluorescence assay (DFA). Community level results from three sites indicated that 54.4% (166/305) of Meridian ImmunoCard STAT! positives and 87.0% (67/77) of Remel Xpect positives were confirmed by DFA. When samples were retested by RCA at state laboratories and compared with DFA, 83.3% (155/186) of Meridian ImmunoCard STAT! positives and 95.2% (60/63) of Remel Xpect positives were confirmed. The percentage of confirmed community results varied by site: Minnesota, 39.0%; New York, 63.9%; and Wisconsin, 72.1%. The percentage of confirmed community results decreased with patient age; 12.5% of community positive tests could be confirmed by DFA for patients 60 years of age or older. The percentage of confirmed results did not differ significantly by sex, storage temperature, time between sample collection and testing, or season. Findings from this study demonstrate a lower confirmation rate of community RCA positives when compared to RCA positives identified at state laboratories. Elucidating the causes of decreased test performance in order to improve overall community laboratory performance of these tests is critical for understanding the epidemiology of cryptosporidiosis in the United States (US). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Accelerometers are increasingly used in research. Four to 7 days of monitoring is preferred to estimate average activity but may be burdensome for older adults. We aimed to investigate: 1) 7-day accelerometry protocol adherence, 2) demographic predictors of adherence, 3) day of the week effect, and 4) average activity calculated from 7 versus fewer days among older adults. Methods: We used the 2003–2006 older adult hip accelerometry data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) sample. We determined proportions with 1–7 valid (10–20 hours) wear days and identified wear day correlates using ordinal logistic regression. We determined the day of week effect on 5 accelerometry measures (counts per minute, CPM; % sedentary behavior; % light-lifestyle activity; % moderate-vigorous activity, MVPA; total activity counts) using multivariate linear regression and compared averages estimated over 2 or 3 versus 7 days using correlations, linear regression, and Bland-Altman plots. Results: Among 2,208 participants aged 65+, 85% of participants had ≥2 and 44% had 7 valid wear days. Increasing age (p = 0.01) and non-white race (p < 0.001) were associated with fewer days. Daily CPM, % MVPA, and total daily activity counts were similar Monday through Saturday, but significantly lower on Sundays (p < 0.001). Daily % sedentary behavior and % light-lifestyle activity were significantly different on Saturdays (p = 0.04–0.045) and Sundays (p < 0.001) compared to weekdays. Among participants with 7 valid days, 2 or 3 day averages were highly correlated with 7 day averages for all 5 accelerometry measures (2 versus 7 days: r = 0.90–0.93, 3 versus 7 days: r = 0.94–0.96). Conclusions: Protocols of 2–3 days, adjusting for Sundays (average CPM, % moderate-vigorous activity, and average total daily activity counts) or weekends (% sedentary behavior and % light-lifestyle activity), give reliable estimates of older adult activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We report information about an unpublished 1970s study (“8-way” Bendectin Study) that aimed to evaluate the relative therapeutic efficacy of doxylamine, pyridoxine, and dicyclomine in the management of nausea and vomiting during pregnancy. We are publishing the trial's findings according to the restoring invisible and abandoned trials (RIAT) initiative because the trial was never published. Design: Double blinded, multi-centred, randomized placebo-controlled study. Setting: 14 clinics in the United States. Participants: 2308 patients in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy with complaints of nausea or vomiting were enrolled. Interventions: Each patient was randomized to one of eight arms: placebo, doxylamine/pyridoxine/dicylcomine, doxylamine/pyridoxine, dicylomine/pyridoxine, doxylamine, dicyclomine/pyridoxine, pyridoxine and dicyclomine. Each patient was instructed to take 2 tablets at bedtime and 1 additional tablet in the afternoon or morning if needed, for 7 nights. Outcomes: Reported outcomes included the number of hours of nausea reported by patients, the frequency of vomiting reported by patients and the overall efficacy of medication as judged by physicians. Results: Data from 1599 (69% of those randomized) participants were analyzed. Based on the available summary data of physician evaluation of symptoms and ignoring missing data and data integrity issues, the proportion of participants who were “evaluated moderate or excellent” was greater in each of the seven active treatment groups when compared with placebo (57%): doxylamine/pyridoxine/dicylcomine (14% absolute difference versus placebo; 95% CI: 4 to 24), doxylamine/pyridoxine (21; 95% CI 11 to 30), dicylomine/pyridoxine (21; 95% CI 11 to 30), doxylamine (20; 95% CI 10 to 29), dicyclomine/pyridoxine (4; 95% CI -6 to 14), pyridoxine (9; 95% CI -1 to 19) and dicyclomine (4; 95% CI -6 to 14). Based on incomplete information, the most common adverse events were apparently drowsiness and fatigue. There is a high risk of bias in these previously unpublished results given the high attrition rate in a 7 day trial, the lack of prespecified outcomes or analyses, and the exclusion of some data because of questionable data integrity. Conclusion: The available information about this “8-way Bendectin” trial indicates it should not be used to support the efficacy of doxylamine, pyridoxine or dicyclomine for the treatment of nausea and vomiting during pregnancy because of a high risk of bias. Trial registration: Not registered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Imidacloprid is a neonicotinoid pesticide heavily used by the agricultural industry and shown to have negative impacts on honey bees above certain concentrations. We evaluated the effects of different imidacloprid concentrations in sugar syrup using cage and field studies, and across different environments. Honey bee colonies fed sublethal concentrations of imidicloprid (0, 5, 20 and 100 ppb) over 6 weeks in field trials at a desert site (Arizona), a site near intensive agriculture (Arkansas) and a site with little nearby agriculture but abundant natural forage (Mississippi) were monitored with respect to colony metrics, such as adult bee and brood population sizes, as well as pesticide residues. Hive weight and internal hive temperature were monitored continuously over two trials in Arizona. Colonies fed 100 ppb imidacloprid in Arizona had significantly lower adult bee populations, brood surface areas and average frame weights, and reduced temperature control, compared to colonies in one or more of the other treatment groups, and consumption rates of those colonies were lower compared to other colonies in Arizona and Arkansas, although no differences in capped brood or average frame weight were observed among treatments in Arkansas. At the Mississippi site, also rich in alternative forage, colonies fed 5 ppb imidacloprid had less capped brood than control colonies, but contamination of control colonies was detected. In contrast, significantly higher daily hive weight variability among colonies fed 5 ppb imidacloprid in Arizona suggested greater foraging activity during a nectar flow post treatment, than any other treatment group. Imidacloprid concentrations in stored honey corresponded well with the respective syrup concentrations fed to the colonies and remained stable within the hive for at least 7 months after the end of treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]