1. Spatio-temporal modelling of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks
- Author
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Z. Abas, Chrisovalantis Malesios, K. Dadousis, Polychronis Kostoulas, Theodoros Koutroumanidis, and Nikolaos Demiris
- Subjects
Swine ,040301 veterinary sciences ,Epidemiology ,Cattle Diseases ,Sheep Diseases ,Disease ,Environment ,Models, Biological ,01 natural sciences ,Disease Outbreaks ,0403 veterinary science ,010104 statistics & probability ,medicine ,Animals ,0101 mathematics ,Environmental noise ,Socioeconomics ,Swine Diseases ,Goat Diseases ,Sheep ,Greece ,Foot-and-mouth disease ,Goats ,Outbreak ,04 agricultural and veterinary sciences ,medicine.disease ,Original Papers ,Infectious Diseases ,Geography ,Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus ,Multicollinearity ,Foot-and-Mouth Disease ,Cattle - Abstract
SUMMARYWe present and analyse data collected during a severe epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) that occurred between July and September 2000 in a region of northeastern Greece with strategic importance since it represents the southeastern border of Europe and Asia. We implement generic Bayesian methodology, which offers flexibility in the ability to fit several realistically complex models that simultaneously capture the presence of ‘excess’ zeros, the spatio-temporal dependence of the cases, assesses the impact of environmental noise and controls for multicollinearity issues. Our findings suggest that the epidemic was mostly driven by the size and the animal type of each farm as well as the distance between farms while environmental and other endemic factors were not important during this outbreak. Analyses of this kind may prove useful to informing decisions related to optimal control measures for potential future FMD outbreaks as well as other acute epidemics such as FMD.
- Published
- 2016
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