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Objective: To examine the cost-effectiveness of self-managed computerised word finding therapy as an add-on to usual care for people with aphasia post-stroke. Design: Cost-effectiveness modelling over a life-time period, taking a UK National Health Service (NHS) and personal social service perspective. Setting: Based on the Big CACTUS randomised controlled trial, conducted in 21 UK NHS speech and language therapy departments. Participants: Big CACTUS included 278 people with long-standing aphasia post-stroke. Interventions: Computerised word finding therapy plus usual care; usual care alone; usual care plus attention control. Main measures: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated, comparing the cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained for each intervention. Credible intervals (CrI) for costs and QALYs, and probabilities of cost-effectiveness, were obtained using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Subgroup and scenario analyses investigated cost-effectiveness in different subsets of the population, and the sensitivity of results to key model inputs. Results: Adding computerised word finding therapy to usual care had an ICER of £42,686 per QALY gained compared with usual care alone (incremental QALY gain: 0.02 per patient (95% CrI: −0.05 to 0.10); incremental costs: £732.73 per patient (95% CrI: £674.23 to £798.05)). ICERs for subgroups with mild or moderate word finding difficulties were £22,371 and £21,262 per QALY gained respectively. Conclusion: Computerised word finding therapy represents a low cost add-on to usual care, but QALY gains and estimates of cost-effectiveness are uncertain. Computerised therapy is more likely to be cost-effective for people with mild or moderate, as opposed to severe, word finding difficulties.

IntroductionAdaptive designs offer a flexible approach, allowing changes to a trial based on examinations of the data as it progresses. Adaptive clinical trials are becoming a popular choice, as the prudent use of finite research budgets and accurate decision-making are priorities for healthcare providers around the world. The methods of health economics, which aim to maximise the health gained for money spent, could be incorporated into the design and analysis of adaptive clinical trials to make them more efficient. We aimed to understand the perspectives of stakeholders in health technology assessments to inform recommendations for the use of health economics in adaptive clinical trials.MethodsA qualitative study explored the attitudes of key stakeholders—including researchers, decision-makers and members of the public—towards the use of health economics in the design and analysis of adaptive clinical trials. Data were collected using interviews and focus groups (29 participants). A framework analysis was used to identify themes in the transcripts.ResultsIt was considered that answering the clinical research question should be the priority in a clinical trial, notwithstanding the importance of cost-effectiveness for decision-making. Concerns raised by participants included handling the volatile nature of cost data at interim analyses; implementing this approach in global trials; resourcing adaptive trials which are designed and adapted based on health economic outcomes; and training stakeholders in these methods so that they can be implemented and appropriately interpreted.ConclusionThe use of health economics in the design and analysis of adaptive clinical trials has the potential to increase the efficiency of health technology assessments worldwide. Recommendations are made concerning the development of methods allowing the use of health economics in adaptive clinical trials, and suggestions are given to facilitate their implementation in practice.

Rupert Jones,1– 3 Andrew Davis,1,2 Brooklyn Stanley,1,2 Steven Julious,4 Dermot Ryan,5 David J Jackson,6 David MG Halpin,7 Katherine Hickman,8 Hilary Pinnock,9 Jennifer K Quint,10 Kamlesh Khunti,11 Liam G Heaney,12 Phillip Oliver,4 Salman Siddiqui,13 Ian Pavord,14 David HM Jones,15 Michael Hyland,3,16 Lewis Ritchie,17 Pam Young,18 Tony Megaw,18 Steve Davis,19 Samantha Walker,20 Stephen Holgate,21 Sue Beecroft,22 Anu Kemppinen,1,2 Francis Appiagyei,1,2 Emma-Jane Roberts,1,2 Megan Preston,1,2 Antony Hardjojo,1,2 Victoria Carter,1,2 Marije van Melle,1,2 David Price1,2,17 1Optimum Patient Care, Cambridge, UK; 2Observational and Pragmatic Research Institute, Singapore, Singapore; 3Faculty of Health, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK; 4University of Sheffield, South Yorkshire, UK; 5Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; 6Guy’s & St Thomas’ NHS Trust, School of Immunology & Microbial Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK; 7University of Exeter Medical School, College of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK; 8Bradford and Leeds Clinical Commissioning Group, Leeds, UK; 9Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; 10National Heart & Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK; 11Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK; 12Wellcome-Wolfson Centre for Experimental Medicine, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland; 13Institute for Lung Health, Leicester National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK; 14Respiratory Medicine Unit and Oxford Respiratory NIHR BRC, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; 15Box Surgery, Wiltshire, UK; 16Plymouth Marjon University, Plymouth, UK; 17Centre of Academic Primary Care, Division of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; 18Wellbeing Software, Mansfield, UK; 19Interface Clinical Services, Leeds, UK; 20Asthma UK & British Lung Foundation, London, UK; 21Clinical and Experimental Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK; 22OPEN Health, Buckinghamshire, UKCorrespondence: David PriceAcademic Primary Care, Division of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Polwarth Building, Foresterhill, Aberdeen, AB25 2ZD, UKTel +65 3105 1489Email dprice@opri.sgIntroduction: Symptoms may persist after the initial phases of COVID-19 infection, a phenomenon termed long COVID. Current knowledge on long COVID has been mostly derived from test-confirmed and hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Data are required on the burden and predictors of long COVID in a broader patient group, which includes both tested and untested COVID-19 patients in primary care.Methods: This is an observational study using data from Platform C19, a quality improvement program-derived research database linking primary care electronic health record data (EHR) with patient-reported questionnaire information. Participating general practices invited consenting patients aged 18– 85 to complete an online questionnaire since 7th August 2020. COVID-19 self-diagnosis, clinician-diagnosis, testing, and the presence and duration of symptoms were assessed via the questionnaire. Patients were considered present with long COVID if they reported symptoms lasting ≥ 4 weeks. EHR and questionnaire data up till 22nd January 2021 were extracted for analysis. Multivariable regression analyses were conducted comparing demographics, clinical characteristics, and presence of symptoms between patients with long COVID and patients with shorter symptom duration.Results: Long COVID was present in 310/3151 (9.8%) patients with self-diagnosed, clinician-diagnosed, or test-confirmed COVID-19. Only 106/310 (34.2%) long COVID patients had test-confirmed COVID-19. Risk predictors of long COVID were age ≥ 40 years (adjusted Odds Ratio [AdjOR]=1.49 [1.05– 2.17]), female sex (adjOR=1.37 [1.02– 1.85]), frailty (adjOR=2.39 [1.29– 4.27]), visit to A&E (adjOR=4.28 [2.31– 7.78]), and hospital admission for COVID-19 symptoms (adjOR=3.22 [1.77– 5.79]). Aches and pain (adjOR=1.70 [1.21– 2.39]), appetite loss (adjOR=3.15 [1.78– 5.92]), confusion and disorientation (adjOR=2.17 [1.57– 2.99]), diarrhea (adjOR=1.4 [1.03– 1.89]), and persistent dry cough (adjOR=2.77 [1.94– 3.98]) were symptom features statistically more common in long COVID.Conclusion: This study reports the factors and symptom features predicting long COVID in a broad primary care population, including both test-confirmed and the previously missed group of COVID-19 patients.Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, questionnaire, observational study, frailty, chronic diseases

Background Depending on the treatment to be investigated, a clinical trial could be designed to assess objectives of superiority, equivalence or non-inferiority. The design of the study is affected by many different elements including the control treatment, the primary outcome and associated relationships. In some studies, there could be more than one outcome of interest. In these situations, benefit-risk methodologies could be used to assess the outcomes simultaneously and consider the trade-off between the benefits against the risks of a treatment. Benefit-risk is used within the regulatory industry but seldom included within publicly funded clinical trials within the UK. This project aims to gain an expert consensus on how to select the appropriate trial design (e.g. superiority) and when to consider including benefit-risk methods. Methods The project will consist of four work packages: A web-based survey to elicit current experiences and opinions, A rapid literature review to assess any current recommendations, A two-day consensus workshop to gain agreement on the recommendations, and Production of a guidance document. Discussion The aim of the project is to provide a guideline for clinical researchers, grant funding bodies and reviewers for grant bodies for how to select the most appropriate trial design and when it is appropriate to consider using benefit-risk methods. The focus of the guideline will be on publicly funded trials however, the vision is that the work will be applicable across research settings and we will connect with other organisations and committees as appropriate.

Background People with aphasia may improve their communication with speech and language therapy many months/years after stroke. However, NHS speech and language therapy reduces in availability over time post stroke. Objective This trial evaluated the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of self-managed computerised speech and language therapy to provide additional therapy. Design A pragmatic, superiority, single-blind, parallel-group, individually randomised (stratified block randomisation, stratified by word-finding severity and site) adjunct trial. Setting Twenty-one UK NHS speech and language therapy departments. Participants People with post-stroke aphasia (diagnosed by a speech and language therapist) with long-standing (> 4 months) word-finding difficulties. Interventions The groups were (1) usual care; (2) daily self-managed computerised word-finding therapy tailored by speech and language therapists and supported by volunteers/speech and language therapy assistants for 6 months plus usual care (computerised speech and language therapy); and (3) activity/attention control (completion of puzzles and receipt of telephone calls from a researcher for 6 months) plus usual care. Main outcome measures Co-primary outcomes – change in ability to find treated words of personal relevance in a bespoke naming test (impairment) and change in functional communication in conversation rated on the activity scale of the Therapy Outcome Measures (activity) 6 months after randomisation. A key secondary outcome was participant-rated perception of communication and quality of life using the Communication Outcomes After Stroke questionnaire at 6 months. Outcomes were assessed by speech and language therapists using standardised procedures. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using treatment costs and an accessible EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version, measuring quality-adjusted life-years. Results A total of 818 patients were assessed for eligibility and 278 participants were randomised between October 2014 and August 2016. A total of 240 participants (86 usual care, 83 computerised speech and language therapy, 71 attention control) contributed to modified intention-to-treat analysis at 6 months. The mean improvements in word-finding were 1.1% (standard deviation 11.2%) for usual care, 16.4% (standard deviation 15.3%) for computerised speech and language therapy and 2.4% (standard deviation 8.8%) for attention control. Computerised speech and language therapy improved word-finding 16.2% more than usual care did (95% confidence interval 12.7% to 19.6%; p n = 219); the mean differences in change in word-finding score were 12.7% (95% confidence interval 8.7% to 16.7%) higher in the computerised speech and language therapy group (n = 74) than in the usual-care group (n = 84) and 9.3% (95% confidence interval 4.8% to 13.7%) higher in the computerised speech and language therapy group than in the attention control group (n = 61). Computerised speech and language therapy did not show significant improvements on the Therapy Outcome Measures or Communication Outcomes After Stroke scale compared with usual care or attention control. Primary cost-effectiveness analysis estimated an incremental cost per participant of £732.73 (95% credible interval £674.23 to £798.05). The incremental quality-adjusted life-year gain was 0.017 for computerised speech and language therapy compared with usual care, but its direction was uncertain (95% credible interval –0.05 to 0.10), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £42,686 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. For mild and moderate word-finding difficulty subgroups, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £22,371 and £28,898 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively, for computerised speech and language therapy compared with usual care. Limitations This trial excluded non-English-language speakers, the accessible EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version, was not validated and the measurement of attention control fidelity was limited. Conclusions Computerised speech and language therapy enabled additional self-managed speech and language therapy, contributing to significant improvement in finding personally relevant words (as specifically targeted by computerised speech and language therapy) long term post stroke. Gains did not lead to improvements in conversation or quality of life. Cost-effectiveness is uncertain owing to uncertainty around the quality-adjusted life-year gain, but computerised speech and language therapy may be more cost-effective for participants with mild and moderate word-finding difficulties. Exploring ways of helping people with aphasia to use new words in functional communication contexts is a priority. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN68798818. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 19. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. The Tavistock Trust for Aphasia provided additional support to enable people in the control groups to experience the intervention after the trial had ended.

Background/aims: External pilot trials are recommended for testing the feasibility of main or confirmatory trials. However, there is little evidence that progress in external pilot trials actually predicts randomisation and attrition rates in the main trial. To assess the use of external pilot trials in trial design, we compared randomisation and attrition rates in publicly funded randomised controlled trials with rates in their pilots. Methods: Randomised controlled trials for which there was an external pilot trial were identified from reports published between 2004 and 2013 in the Health Technology Assessment Journal. Data were extracted from published papers, protocols and reports. Bland–Altman plots and descriptive statistics were used to investigate the agreement of randomisation and attrition rates between the full and external pilot trials. Results: Of 561 reports, 41 were randomised controlled trials with pilot trials and 16 met criteria for a pilot trial with sufficient data. Mean attrition and randomisation rates were 21.1% and 50.4%, respectively, in the pilot trials and 16.8% and 65.2% in the main. There was minimal bias in the pilot trial when predicting the main trial attrition and randomisation rate. However, the variation was large: the mean difference in the attrition rate between the pilot and main trial was −4.4% with limits of agreement of −37.1% to 28.2%. Limits of agreement for randomisation rates were −47.8% to 77.5%. Conclusion: Results from external pilot trials to estimate randomisation and attrition rates should be used with caution as comparison of the difference in the rates between pilots and their associated full trial demonstrates high variability. We suggest using internal pilot trials wherever appropriate.

Melanie L Bell,1 Amy L Whitehead,2 Steven A Julious2 1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA; 2Medical Statistics Group, Design, Trials and Statistics, School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK Background: A pilot study can be an important step in the assessment of an intervention by providing information to design the future definitive trial. Pilot studies can be used to estimate the recruitment and retention rates and population variance and to provide preliminary evidence of efficacy potential. However, estimation is poor because pilot studies are small, so sensitivity analyses for the main trial’s sample size calculations should be undertaken.Methods: We demonstrate how to carry out easy-to-perform sensitivity analysis for designing trials based on pilot data using an example. Furthermore, we introduce rules of thumb for the size of the pilot study so that the overall sample size, for both pilot and main trials, is minimized.Results: The example illustrates how sample size estimates for the main trial can alter dramatically by plausibly varying assumptions. Required sample size for 90% power varied from 392 to 692 depending on assumptions. Some scenarios were not feasible based on the pilot study recruitment and retention rates.Conclusion: Pilot studies can be used to help design the main trial, but caution should be exercised. We recommend the use of sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the design assumptions for a main trial. Keywords: pilot, feasibility, sample size, power, randomized controlled trial, sensitivity analysis

Background: A key step in the design of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) is the estimation of the number of participants needed. By far the most common approach is to specify a target difference and then estimate the corresponding sample size; this sample size is chosen to provide reassurance that the trial will have high statistical power to detect such a difference between the randomised groups (at the planned statistical significance level). The sample size has many implications for the conduct of the study, as well as carrying scientific and ethical aspects to its choice. Despite the critical role of the target difference for the primary outcome in the design of an RCT, the manner in which it is determined has received little attention. This article reports the protocol of the Difference ELicitation in TriAls (DELTA2) project, which will produce guidance on the specification and reporting of the target difference for the primary outcome in a sample size calculation for RCTs. Methods/design: The DELTA2 project has five components: systematic literature reviews of recent methodological developments (stage 1) and existing funder guidance (stage 2); a Delphi study (stage 3); a 2-day consensus meeting bringing together researchers, funders and patient representatives, as well as one-off engagement sessions at relevant stakeholder meetings (stage 4); and the preparation and dissemination of a guidance document (stage 5). Discussion: Specification of the target difference for the primary outcome is a key component of the design of an RCT. There is a need for better guidance for researchers and funders regarding specification and reporting of this aspect of trial design. The aim of this project is to produce consensus based guidance for researchers and funders.

Background The randomised controlled trial is widely considered to be the gold standard study for comparing the effectiveness of health interventions. Central to its design is a calculation of the number of participants needed (the sample size) for the trial. The sample size is typically calculated by specifying the magnitude of the difference in the primary outcome between the intervention effects for the population of interest. This difference is called the ‘target difference’ and should be appropriate for the principal estimand of interest and determined by the primary aim of the study. The target difference between treatments should be considered realistic and/or important by one or more key stakeholder groups. Objective The objective of the report is to provide practical help on the choice of target difference used in the sample size calculation for a randomised controlled trial for researchers and funder representatives. Methods The Difference ELicitation in TriAls2 (DELTA2) recommendations and advice were developed through a five-stage process, which included two literature reviews of existing funder guidance and recent methodological literature; a Delphi process to engage with a wider group of stakeholders; a 2-day workshop; and finalising the core document. Results Advice is provided for definitive trials (Phase III/IV studies). Methods for choosing the target difference are reviewed. To aid those new to the topic, and to encourage better practice, 10 recommendations are made regarding choosing the target difference and undertaking a sample size calculation. Recommended reporting items for trial proposal, protocols and results papers under the conventional approach are also provided. Case studies reflecting different trial designs and covering different conditions are provided. Alternative trial designs and methods for choosing the sample size are also briefly considered. Conclusions Choosing an appropriate sample size is crucial if a study is to inform clinical practice. The number of patients recruited into the trial needs to be sufficient to answer the objectives; however, the number should not be higher than necessary to avoid unnecessary burden on patients and wasting precious resources. The choice of the target difference is a key part of this process under the conventional approach to sample size calculations. This document provides advice and recommendations to improve practice and reporting regarding this aspect of trial design. Future work could extend the work to address other less common approaches to the sample size calculations, particularly in terms of appropriate reporting items. Funding Funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) UK and the National Institute for Health Research as part of the MRC–National Institute for Health Research Methodology Research programme.

Background\ud \ud With millions of pounds spent annually on medical research in the UK, it is important that studies are spending funds wisely. Internal pilots offer the chance to stop a trial early if it becomes apparent that the study will not be able to recruit enough patients to show whether an intervention is clinically effective. This study aims to assess the use of internal pilots in individually randomised controlled trials funded by the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme and to summarise the progression criteria chosen in these trials.\ud \ud Methods\ud \ud Studies were identified from reports of the HTA committees’ funding decisions from 2012 to 2016. In total, 242 trials were identified of which 134 were eligible to be included in the audit. Protocols for the eligible studies were located on the NIHR Journals website, and if protocols were not available online then study managers were contacted to provide information.\ud \ud Results\ud \ud Over two-thirds (72.4%) of studies said in their protocol that they would include an internal pilot phase for their study and 37.8% of studies without an internal pilot had done an external pilot study to assess the feasibility of the full study. A typical study with an internal pilot has a target sample size of 510 over 24 months and aims to recruit one-fifth of their total target sample size within the first one-third of their recruitment time. There has been an increase in studies adopting a three-tiered structure for their progression rules in recent years, with 61.5% (16/26) of studies using the system in 2016 compared to just 11.8% (2/17) in 2015. There was also a rise in the number of studies giving a target recruitment rate in their progression criteria: 42.3% (11/26) in 2016 compared to 35.3% (6/17) in 2015.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud \ud Progression criteria for an internal pilot are usually well specified but targets vary widely. For the actual criteria, red/amber/green systems have increased in popularity in recent years. Trials should justify the targets they have set, especially where targets are low.

Background Large observational datasets such as Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) provide opportunities to conduct clinical studies and economic evaluations with efficient designs. Objectives Our objectives were to report the economic evaluation methodology for a cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a UK NHS-delivered public health intervention for children with asthma that was evaluated using CPRD and describe the impact of this methodology on results. Methods CPRD identified eligible patients using predefined asthma diagnostic codes and captured 1-year pre- and post-intervention healthcare contacts (August 2012 to July 2014). Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) 4 months post-intervention were estimated by assigning utility values to exacerbation-related contacts; a systematic review identified these utility values because preference-based outcome measures were not collected. Bootstrapped costs were evaluated 12 months post-intervention, both with 1-year regression-based baseline adjustment (BA) and without BA (observed). Results Of 12,179 patients recruited, 8190 (intervention 3641; control 4549) were evaluated in the primary analysis, which included patients who received the protocol-defined intervention and for whom CPRD data were available. The intervention’s per-patient incremental QALY loss was 0.00017 (bias-corrected and accelerated 95% confidence intervals [BCa 95% CI] –0.00051 to 0.00018) and cost savings were £14.74 (observed; BCa 95% CI –75.86 to 45.19) or £36.07 (BA; BCa 95% CI –77.11 to 9.67), respectively. The probability of cost savings was much higher when accounting for BA versus observed costs due to baseline cost differences between trial arms (96.3 vs. 67.3%, respectively). Conclusion Economic evaluations using data from a large observational database without any primary data collection is feasible, informative and potentially efficient. Clinical Trials Registration Number: ISRCTN03000938. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s40273-016-0484-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

AimsWe describe how patient and public involvement (PPI) was integrated into the design of an intervention for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) based within primary care. The RCT, known as the PLEASANT trial, aimed to reduce unscheduled medical contacts in children with asthma associated with start of the new school year in September with a simple postal intervention, highlighting the importance of maintaining asthma medication for helping to prevent increased asthma exacerbations.BackgroundPPI is a key feature of UK health research policy, and is often a requirement of funding from the National Institute for Health Research. There are few detailed accounts of PPI in the design and conduct of clinical trials in the PPI literature for researchers to learn from.MethodsWe held PPI consultation events to determine whether the proposed intervention for the trial was acceptable to children with asthma and their parents, and to ascertain whether enhancements should be made. Two PPI consultation events were held with children with asthma and their parents, prior to the research commencing. Detailed field notes were taken by the research team at each consultation event.FindingsAt the first consultation event, parents and children endorsed the trial’s rationale, made suggestions to the wording of the trial intervention letter, and made recommendations about to whom the letter should be sent out. At the second consultation event, parents discussed the timing of the intervention, commented on the lay summary of the Research Ethics Application, and were invited to join the trial’s steering committee, while the children selected a logo for the study. PPI has resulted in enhancements to the PLEASANT study’s intervention. A further PPI consultation event is scheduled for the end of the trial, in order for children with asthma and their parents to contribute to the trial’s dissemination strategy.

Adaptive designs (ADs) allow pre-planned changes to an ongoing trial without compromising the validity of conclusions and it is essential to distinguish pre-planned from unplanned changes that may also occur. The reporting of ADs in randomised trials is inconsistent and needs improving. Incompletely reported AD randomised trials are difficult to reproduce and are hard to interpret and synthesise. This consequently hampers their ability to inform practice as well as future research and contributes to research waste. Better transparency and adequate reporting will enable the potential benefits of ADs to be realised.This extension to the Consolidated Standards Of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) 2010 statement was developed to enhance the reporting of randomised AD clinical trials. We developed an Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) guideline through a two-stage Delphi process with input from multidisciplinary key stakeholders in clinical trials research in the public and private sectors from 21 countries, followed by a consensus meeting. Members of the CONSORT Group were involved during the development process.The paper presents the ACE checklists for AD randomised trial reports and abstracts, as well as an explanation with examples to aid the application of the guideline. The ACE checklist comprises seven new items, nine modified items, six unchanged items for which additional explanatory text clarifies further considerations for ADs, and 20 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text. The ACE abstract checklist has one new item, one modified item, one unchanged item with additional explanatory text for ADs, and 15 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text.The intention is to enhance transparency and improve reporting of AD randomised trials to improve the interpretability of their results and reproducibility of their methods, results and inference. We also hope indirectly to facilitate the much-needed knowledge transfer of innovative trial designs to maximise their potential benefits. In order to encourage its wide dissemination this article is freely accessible on the BMJ and Trials journal websites.“To maximise the benefit to society, you need to not just do research but do it well” Douglas G Altman

Background: Observational studies have described how inadequate Menstrual Hygiene Management (MHM) impacts negatively on girls' engagement in school but are yet to confirm if MHM interventions can have an impact. We hypothesise that provision of menstrual health education and re-usable sanitary pads can improve girls' school attendance. Methods: We conducted a non-blinded delayed control cluster-randomised trial in 40 government primary schools in former Greater Bushenyi District, Western Uganda. A group of 30 girls aged 12-18 from each school was randomly assigned to intervention (menstrual health education and reusable sanitary pads) or control (receiving the intervention at the end of the study) groups. The primary outcome was the mean number of days of school missed per month. Findings: We randomised 1,170 girls from 20 intervention (582 girls) and 20 control (588 girls) schools. At follow-up, 499 girls from 20 intervention (259 girls) and 19 control (240 girls) were included in the primary analysis. School attendance according to register data was similar in the intervention group compared to the control (-0.22 days, 95% CI: -0.204, 0.644 days, p-value: 0.300). High rates of missing register data and school drop-out meant the trial suffered from substantial missing data. There was a positive non-statistically significant effect on girls' knowledge of menstruation, daily activities during menstruation and self-esteem. No adverse effects were reported. Interpretation: An MHM intervention consisting of pad distribution and education may not result in sustainable improvements in girls' school engagement. Future work should consider interventions that include behaviour change components . Results should be interpreted in light of issues with the volume of missing data. Work is needed to develop reliable and replicable methods of measuring the impact of MHM interventions on girls' school engagement. Trial Registration Number: The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, study ID: NCT02243488. Funding Statement: The Leverhulme Trust Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Ethics Approval Statement: Ethics for this study has been granted by The University of Sheffield’s School of Health and Related Research (Ethics reference number: 0677/KW). Ethics approval has been obtained locally from Makerere University School of Public Health and the trial will be registered with The Ugandan National Council for Science and Technology (UNCST). The trial has also been registered with Clinicaltrials.gov and the protocol will be published online on the White Rose Consortium.

Summary Background Post-stroke aphasia might improve over many years with speech and language therapy; however speech and language therapy is often less readily available beyond a few months after stroke. We assessed self-managed computerised speech and language therapy (CSLT) as a means of providing more therapy than patients can access through usual care alone. Methods In this pragmatic, superiority, three-arm, individually randomised, single-blind, parallel group trial, patients were recruited from 21 speech and language therapy departments in the UK. Participants were aged 18 years or older and had been diagnosed with aphasia post-stroke at least 4 months before randomisation; they were excluded if they had another premorbid speech and language disorder caused by a neurological deficit other than stroke, required treatment in a language other than English, or if they were currently using computer-based word-finding speech therapy. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to either 6 months of usual care (usual care group), daily self-managed CSLT plus usual care (CSLT group), or attention control plus usual care (attention control group) with the use of computer-generated stratified blocked randomisation (randomly ordered blocks of sizes three and six, stratified by site and severity of word finding at baseline based on CAT Naming Objects test scores). Only the outcome assessors and trial statistician were masked to the treatment allocation. The speech and language therapists who were doing the outcome assessments were different from those informing participants about which group they were assigned to and from those delivering all interventions. The statistician responsible for generating the randomisation schedule was separate from those doing the analysis. Co-primary outcomes were the change in ability to retrieve personally relevant words in a picture naming test (with 10% mean difference in change considered a priori as clinically meaningful) and the change in functional communication ability measured by masked ratings of video-recorded conversations, with the use of Therapy Outcome Measures (TOMs), between baseline and 6 months after randomisation (with a standardised mean difference in change of 0·45 considered a priori as clinically meaningful). Primary analysis was based on the modified intention-to-treat (mITT) population, which included randomly assigned patients who gave informed consent and excluded those without 6-month outcome measures. Safety analysis included all participants. This trial has been completed and was registered with the ISRCTN, number ISRCTN68798818. Findings From Oct 20, 2014, to Aug 18, 2016, 818 patients were assessed for eligibility, of which 278 (34%) participants were randomly assigned (101 [36%] to the usual care group; 97 [35%] to the CSLT group; 80 [29%] to the attention control group). 86 patients in the usual care group, 83 in the CSLT group, and 71 in the attention control group contributed to the mITT. Mean word finding improvements were 1·1% (SD 11·2) in the usual care group, 16·4% (15·3) in the CSLT group, and 2·4% (8·8) in the attention control group. Word finding improvement was 16·2% (95% CI 12·7 to 19·6; p

Background This article on choosing the target difference for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and undertaking and reporting the sample size calculation has been dual published in the BMJ and BMC Trials journals. A key step in the design of a RCT is the estimation of the number of participants needed in the study. The most common approach is to specify a target difference between the treatments for the primary outcome and then calculate the required sample size. The sample size is chosen to ensure that the trial will have a high probability (adequate statistical power) of detecting a target difference between the treatments should one exist. The sample size has many implications for the conduct and interpretation of the study. Despite the critical role that the target difference has in the design of a RCT, the way in which it is determined has received little attention. In this article, we summarise the key considerations and messages from new guidance for researchers and funders on specifying the target difference, and undertaking and reporting a RCT sample size calculation. Methods The DELTA2 (Difference ELicitation in TriAls) project comprised five major components: systematic literature reviews of recent methodological developments (stage 1) and existing funder guidance (stage 2); a Delphi study (stage 3); a two-day consensus meeting bringing together researchers, funders and patient representatives (stage 4); and the preparation and dissemination of a guidance document (stage 5). Results and Discussion The key messages from the DELTA2 guidance on specifying the target difference are presented. Recommendations for specifying the target difference and the subsequent reporting of the sample size calculation are provided.

Background When designing a randomised controlled trial (RCT), an important consideration is the sample size required. This is calculated from several components; one of which is the target difference. This study aims to review the currently reported methods of elicitation of the target difference as well as to quantify the target differences used in Health Technology Assessment (HTA)-funded trials. Methods Trials were identified from the National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment journal. A total of 177 RCTs published between 2006 and 2016 were assessed for eligibility. Eligibility was established by the design of the trial and the quality of data available. The trial designs were parallel-group, superiority RCTs with a continuous primary endpoint. Data were extracted and the standardised anticipated and observed effect size estimates were calculated. Exclusion criteria was based on trials not providing enough detail in the sample size calculation and results, and trials not being of parallel-group, superiority design. Results A total of 107 RCTs were included in the study from 102 reports. The most commonly reported method for effect size derivation was a review of evidence and use of previous research (52.3%). This was common across all clinical areas. The median standardised target effect size was 0.30 (interquartile range: 0.20–0.38), with the median standardised observed effect size 0.11 (IQR 0.05–0.29). The maximum anticipated and observed effect sizes were 0.76 and 1.18, respectively. Only two trials had anticipated target values above 0.60. Conclusion The most commonly reported method of elicitation of the target effect size is previous published research. The average target effect size was 0.3. A clear distinction between the target difference and the minimum clinically important difference is recommended when designing a trial. Transparent explanation of target difference elicitation is advised, with multiple methods including a review of evidence and opinion-seeking advised as the more optimal methods for effect size quantification.

The aim of this document is to provide practical guidance on the choice of target difference used in the sample size calculation of a randomised controlled trial (RCT). Guidance is provided with a definitive trial, one that seeks to provide a useful answer, in mind and not those of a more exploratory nature. The term “target difference” is taken throughout to refer to the difference that is used in the sample size calculation (the one that the study formally “targets”). Please see the glossary for definitions and clarification with regards other relevant concepts. In order to address the specification of the target difference, it is appropriate, and to some degree necessary, to touch on related statistical aspects of conducting a sample size calculation. Generally the discussion of other aspects and more technical details is kept to a minimum, with more technical aspects covered in the appendices and referencing of relevant sources provided for further reading.The main body of this guidance assumes a standard RCT design is used; formally, this can be described as a two-arm parallel-group superiority trial. Most RCTs test for superiority of the interventions, that is, whether or not one of the interventions is superior to the other (See Box 1 for a formal definition of superiority, and of the two most common alternative approaches). Some common alternative trial designs are considered in Appendix 3. Additionally, it is assumed in the main body of the text that the conventional (Neyman-Pearson) approach to the sample size calculation of an RCT is being used. Other approaches (Bayesian, precision and value of information) are briefly considered in Appendix 2 with reference to the specification of the target difference.

Introduction and Objectives Asthma is the commonest long-term condition in children with attacks impacting on both school attendance and quality of life. Identifying the child at increased risk of future asthma attacks could inform clinical management and targeting of care. We aimed to systematically review the literature to identify and weight factors associated with increased risk of attacks in children with asthma aged 5–12 years. Methods Using Cochrane methodology, we systematically searched six databases and undertook forward and backward citation searches, with no date/language restrictions. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion, assessed methodological quality, and extracted data. An expert panel of four clinicians independently assessed each factor for both magnitude of risk and degree of confidence in that assessment, based on study quality, effect sizes, biological plausibility, and consistency of Results Consensus was achieved by discussion and agreed at a multidisciplinary workshop. Results From 16 109 records, we included 69 papers (29 cohort, 4 case-control, 36 cross-sectional studies) providing data on 32 potential factors associated with an increased risk of asthma attacks. The panel had high confidence that previous asthma attacks were associated with greatly increased risk of future attacks. Poor access to care and persistent symptoms were associated with moderately/greatly increased risk. A moderately increased risk of attack was associated with sub-optimal drug regimen (low controller/total therapy ratio), comorbid atopic/allergic disease, African-American ethnicity (US studies), poverty, and vitamin D deficiency. Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure, younger age, and obesity were associated with slightly increased risk. Gender, urban residence, and Hispanic ethnicity (US studies) were not associated with risk. The evidence for other factors was inconclusive. Conclusions Assessment of clinical and demographic features (especially persistent symptoms, previous attacks, and sub-optimal drug regimen) may help clinicians to ‘spot the child’ at increased risk of asthma attacks and focus appropriate management. Population level factors (poverty, poor access to care) may be used by health service planners and policymakers to target healthcare initiatives.

Background \ud Substantial amounts of public funds are invested in health research worldwide. Publicly funded randomised controlled trials (RCTs) often recruit participants at a slower than anticipated rate. Many trials fail to reach their planned sample size within the envisaged trial timescale and trial funding envelope.\ud \ud Objectives \ud To review the consent, recruitment and retention rates for single and multicentre randomised control trials funded and published by the UK's National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme.\ud \ud Data sources and study selection \ud HTA reports of individually randomised single or multicentre RCTs published from the start of 2004 to the end of April 2016 were reviewed.\ud \ud Data extraction \ud Information was extracted, relating to the trial characteristics, sample size, recruitment and retention by two independent reviewers.\ud \ud Main outcome measures \ud Target sample size and whether it was achieved; recruitment rates (number of participants recruited per centre per month) and retention rates (randomised participants retained and assessed with valid primary outcome data).\ud \ud Results \ud This review identified 151 individually RCTs from 787 NIHR HTA reports. The final recruitment target sample size was achieved in 56% (85/151) of the RCTs and more than 80% of the final target sample size was achieved for 79% of the RCTs (119/151). The median recruitment rate (participants per centre per month) was found to be 0.92 (IQR 0.43–2.79) and the median retention rate (proportion of participants with valid primary outcome data at follow-up) was estimated at 89% (IQR 79–97%).\ud \ud Conclusions \ud There is considerable variation in the consent, recruitment and retention rates in publicly funded RCTs. Investigators should bear this in mind at the planning stage of their study and not be overly optimistic about their recruitment projections.

Following publication of the original article [1], we have been notified of a few mistakes

Large observational datasets such as Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) provide opportunities to conduct clinical studies and economic evaluations with efficient designs.Our objectives were to report the economic evaluation methodology for a cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a UK NHS-delivered public health intervention for children with asthma that was evaluated using CPRD and describe the impact of this methodology on results.CPRD identified eligible patients using predefined asthma diagnostic codes and captured 1-year pre- and post-intervention healthcare contacts (August 2012 to July 2014). Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) 4 months post-intervention were estimated by assigning utility values to exacerbation-related contacts; a systematic review identified these utility values because preference-based outcome measures were not collected. Bootstrapped costs were evaluated 12 months post-intervention, both with 1-year regression-based baseline adjustment (BA) and without BA (observed).Of 12,179 patients recruited, 8190 (intervention 3641; control 4549) were evaluated in the primary analysis, which included patients who received the protocol-defined intervention and for whom CPRD data were available. The intervention's per-patient incremental QALY loss was 0.00017 (bias-corrected and accelerated 95% confidence intervals [BCa 95% CI] -0.00051 to 0.00018) and cost savings were £14.74 (observed; BCa 95% CI -75.86 to 45.19) or £36.07 (BA; BCa 95% CI -77.11 to 9.67), respectively. The probability of cost savings was much higher when accounting for BA versus observed costs due to baseline cost differences between trial arms (96.3 vs. 67.3%, respectively).Economic evaluations using data from a large observational database without any primary data collection is feasible, informative and potentially efficient. Clinical Trials Registration Number: ISRCTN03000938.

Summary To enable an assessment of the costs and benefits of a new health technology one should use a range of outcome measures, including medical, psychosocial and economic. Therefore, unless a patient-reported outcome as well as clinical outcome is assessed in a study, the effect of a health technology on the patient will remain unknown as two therapies may have similar clinical consequences but different impacts upon the quality of the life of the patients. An important issue when designing a study with a new patient-reported outcome is the quantification of an effect size. Through a case study we highlight how simple calculations can enable the estimation of the effect sizes if there is information on established outcomes. This is done by mapping changes on the new scale to clinically relevant and important changes on established scales. We recommend the approaches described in this paper be considered for the quantification of important treatment effects when designing a clinical trial with a new patient-reported outcome measure.

BackgroundAsthma episodes and deaths are known to be seasonal. A number of reports have shown peaks in asthma episodes in school-aged children associated with the return to school following the summer vacation. A fall in prescription collection in the month of August has been observed, and was associated with an increase in the number of unscheduled contacts after the return to school in September.ObjectiveThe primary objective of the study was to assess whether or not a NHS-delivered public health intervention reduces the September peak in unscheduled medical contacts.DesignCluster randomised trial, with the unit of randomisation being 142 NHS general practices, and trial-based economic evaluation.SettingPrimary care.InterventionA letter sent (n = 70 practices) in July from their general practitioner (GP) to parents/carers of school-aged children with asthma to remind them of the importance of taking their medication, and to ensure that they have sufficient medication prior to the start of the new school year in September. The control group received usual care.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome measure was the proportion of children aged 5–16 years who had an unscheduled medical contact in September 2013. Supporting end points included the proportion of children who collected prescriptions in August 2013 and unscheduled contacts through the following 12 months. Economic end points were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and costs from an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective.ResultsThere is no evidence of effect in terms of unscheduled contacts in September. Among children aged 5–16 years, the odds ratio (OR) was 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 1.25] against the intervention. The intervention did increase the proportion of children collecting a prescription in August (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.64) as well as scheduled contacts in the same month (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.52). For the wider time intervals (September–December 2013 and September–August 2014), there is weak evidence of the intervention reducing unscheduled contacts. The intervention did not reduce unscheduled care in September, although it succeeded in increasing the proportion of children collecting prescriptions in August as well as having scheduled contacts in the same month. These unscheduled contacts in September could be a result of the intervention, as GPs may have wanted to see patients before issuing a prescription. The economic analysis estimated a high probability that the intervention was cost-saving, for baseline-adjusted costs, across both base-case and sensitivity analyses. There was no increase in QALYs.LimitationThe use of routine data led to uncertainty in the coding of medical contacts. The uncertainty was mitigated by advice from a GP adjudication panel.ConclusionsThe intervention did not reduce unscheduled care in September, although it succeeded in increasing the proportion of children both collecting prescriptions and having scheduled contacts in August. After September there is weak evidence in favour of the intervention. The intervention had a favourable impact on costs but did not demonstrate any impact on QALYs. The results of the trial indicate that further work is required on assessing and understanding adherence, both in terms of using routine data to make quantitative assessments, and through additional qualitative interviews with key stakeholders such as practice nurses, GPs and a wider group of children with asthma.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN03000938.Funding detailsThis project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full inHealth Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 93. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Background Automated telephone communication systems (ATCS) can deliver voice messages and collect health-related information from patients using either their telephone's touch-tone keypad or voice recognition software. ATCS can supplement or replace telephone contact between health professionals and patients. There are four different types of ATCS: unidirectional (one-way, non-interactive voice communication), interactive voice response (IVR) systems, ATCS with additional functions such as access to an expert to request advice (ATCS Plus) and multimodal ATCS, where the calls are delivered as part of a multicomponent intervention. Objectives To assess the effects of ATCS for preventing disease and managing long-term conditions on behavioural change, clinical, process, cognitive, patient-centred and adverse outcomes. Search methods We searched 10 electronic databases (the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; Embase; PsycINFO; CINAHL; Global Health; WHOLIS; LILACS; Web of Science; and ASSIA); three grey literature sources (Dissertation Abstracts, Index to Theses, Australasian Digital Theses); and two trial registries (www.controlled-trials.com; www.clinicaltrials.gov) for papers published between 1980 and June 2015. Selection criteria Randomised, cluster- and quasi-randomised trials, interrupted time series and controlled before-and-after studies comparing ATCS interventions, with any control or another ATCS type were eligible for inclusion. Studies in all settings, for all consumers/carers, in any preventive healthcare or long term condition management role were eligible. Data collection and analysis We used standard Cochrane methods to select and extract data and to appraise eligible studies. Main results We included 132 trials (N = 4,669,689). Studies spanned across several clinical areas, assessing many comparisons based on evaluation of different ATCS types and variable comparison groups. Forty-one studies evaluated ATCS for delivering preventive healthcare, 84 for managing long-term conditions, and seven studies for appointment reminders. We downgraded our certainty in the evidence primarily because of the risk of bias for many outcomes. We judged the risk of bias arising from allocation processes to be low for just over half the studies and unclear for the remainder. We considered most studies to be at unclear risk of performance or detection bias due to blinding, while only 16% of studies were at low risk. We generally judged the risk of bias due to missing data and selective outcome reporting to be unclear. For preventive healthcare, ATCS (ATCS Plus, IVR, unidirectional) probably increase immunisation uptake in children (risk ratio (RR) 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18 to 1.32; 5 studies, N = 10,454; moderate certainty) and to a lesser extent in adolescents (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.11; 2 studies, N = 5725; moderate certainty). The effects of ATCS in adults are unclear (RR 2.18, 95% CI 0.53 to 9.02; 2 studies, N = 1743; very low certainty). For screening, multimodal ATCS increase uptake of screening for breast cancer (RR 2.17, 95% CI 1.55 to 3.04; 2 studies, N = 462; high certainty) and colorectal cancer (CRC) (RR 2.19, 95% CI 1.88 to 2.55; 3 studies, N = 1013; high certainty) versus usual care. It may also increase osteoporosis screening. ATCS Plus interventions probably slightly increase cervical cancer screening (moderate certainty), but effects on osteoporosis screening are uncertain. IVR systems probably increase CRC screening at 6 months (RR 1.36, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.48; 2 studies, N = 16,915; moderate certainty) but not at 9 to 12 months, with probably little or no effect of IVR (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.99, 1.11; 2 studies, 2599 participants; moderate certainty) or unidirectional ATCS on breast cancer screening. Appointment reminders delivered through IVR or unidirectional ATCS may improve attendance rates compared with no calls (low certainty). For long-term management, medication or laboratory test adherence provided the most general evidence across conditions (25 studies, data not combined). Multimodal ATCS versus usual care showed conflicting effects (positive and uncertain) on medication adherence. ATCS Plus probably slightly (versus control; moderate certainty) or probably (versus usual care; moderate certainty) improves medication adherence but may have little effect on adherence to tests (versus control). IVR probably slightly improves medication adherence versus control (moderate certainty). Compared with usual care, IVR probably improves test adherence and slightly increases medication adherence up to six months but has little or no effect at longer time points (moderate certainty). Unidirectional ATCS, compared with control, may have little effect or slightly improve medication adherence (low certainty). The evidence suggested little or no consistent effect of any ATCS type on clinical outcomes (blood pressure control, blood lipids, asthma control, therapeutic coverage) related to adherence, but only a small number of studies contributed clinical outcome data. The above results focus on areas with the most general findings across conditions. In condition-specific areas, the effects of ATCS varied, including by the type of ATCS intervention in use. Multimodal ATCS probably decrease both cancer pain and chronic pain as well as depression (moderate certainty), but other ATCS types were less effective. Depending on the type of intervention, ATCS may have small effects on outcomes for physical activity, weight management, alcohol consumption, and diabetes mellitus. ATCS have little or no effect on outcomes related to heart failure, hypertension, mental health or smoking cessation, and there is insufficient evidence to determine their effects for preventing alcohol/substance misuse or managing illicit drug addiction, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, HIV/AIDS, hypercholesterolaemia, obstructive sleep apnoea, spinal cord dysfunction or psychological stress in carers. Only four trials (3%) reported adverse events, and it was unclear whether these were related to the interventions. Authors' conclusions ATCS interventions can change patients' health behaviours, improve clinical outcomes and increase healthcare uptake with positive effects in several important areas including immunisation, screening, appointment attendance, and adherence to medications or tests. The decision to integrate ATCS interventions in routine healthcare delivery should reflect variations in the certainty of the evidence available and the size of effects across different conditions, together with the varied nature of ATCS interventions assessed. Future research should investigate both the content of ATCS interventions and the mode of delivery; users' experiences, particularly with regard to acceptability; and clarify which ATCS types are most effective and cost-effective.

Reports have shown peaks in asthma episodes in school-aged children associated with the return to school following the summer vacation (Julious SA et al. Public Health 2007;121(6):482-4). A drop in prescription collection in the month of August has been observed which was associated with an increase in the number of unscheduled contacts after the return to school in September. The aim of the study was to assess whether a primary care intervention reduced the number of unscheduled medical contacts after the school return. A letter was sent from the GP to parents/carers of children aged 5-16 years with asthma at the start of school summer holidays reminding them to take their preventer medication prior to the start of the new school year. The study was a cluster randomised trial with a control group that received usual care. The intervention did not reduce unscheduled care in September (odds-ratio 1.09; 95% CI 0.96 to 1.25) against the intervention. It did succeed in increasing the proportion of children collecting prescriptions in August (odds-ratio 1.43; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.64) as well as scheduled contacts in the same month. For the wider time intervals (Sep-Dec 2013 and Sep-Aug 2014) there was weak evidence of effect. The economic analysis estimated a high probability that the intervention was cost saving. A higher uptake of prescriptions and scheduled contacts in August may indicate that the letter triggered parents to arrange asthma reviews in children whose prescriptions had lapsed. GPs and commissioning groups may wish to implement this intervention in areas with high rates of asthma and low rates of scheduled asthma reviews.

Pilot studies are small‐scale studies conducted to gather information and provide a foundation for the design of a definitive trial. They do not seek to estimate treatment efficacy or effectiveness themselves but may be used to assess whether a definitive trial is feasible and how it can be carried out. The objectives of a study can be met only if a sufficient number of participants are recruited. A formal power calculation is not usually necessary for a pilot study where the focus is on estimation – for example, of feasibility parameters or the population variance – and the precision of these estimates. However, the sample size should still be justified as appropriate to meet the aims of the trial. The appropriate analysis of a pilot study would usually be a descriptive summary of the parameters of interest, addressing the original trial objectives. The analysis should not contain hypothesis testing for which the trial is not powered. The interpretation of the results should be in line with the feasibility of the planned main trial. The decision‐making process and changes made to the trial design based on the pilot study should be documented, and results presented in accordance with the CONSORT extension for pilot trials. Every effort should be made to publish the trial for transparency and to allow learning to be shared within the research community.

Background: Adaptive design clinical trials use preplanned interim analyses to determine whether studies should be stopped or modified before recruitment is complete. Emergency medicine trials are well suited to these designs as many have a short time to primary outcome relative to the length of recruitment. We hypothesised that the majority of published emergency medicine trials have the potential to use a simple adaptive trial design.\ud \ud Methods: We reviewed clinical trials published in three emergency medicine journals between January 2003 and December 2013. We determined the proportion that used an adaptive design as well as the proportion that could have used a simple adaptive design based on the time to primary outcome and length of recruitment.\ud \ud Results: Only 19 of 188 trials included in the review were considered to have used an adaptive trial design. A total of 154/165 trials that were fixed in design had the potential to use an adaptive design.\ud \ud Conclusions: Currently, there seems to be limited uptake in the use of adaptive trial designs in emergency medicine despite their potential benefits to save time and resources. Failing to take advantage of adaptive designs could be costly to patients and research. It is recommended that where practical and logistical considerations allow, adaptive designs should be used for all emergency medicine clinical trials.

Adaptive designs have the potential to improve efficiency in the evaluation of new medical treatments in comparison to traditional fixed sample size designs. However, they are still not widely used in practice in clinical research. Little research has been conducted to investigate what adaptive designs are being undertaken. This review highlights the current state of registered adaptive designs and their characteristics. The review looked at phase II, II/III and III trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov from 29 February 2000 to 1 June 2014, supplemented with trials from the National Institute for Health Research register and known adaptive trials. A range of adaptive design search terms were applied to the trials extracted from each database. Characteristics of the adaptive designs were then recorded including funder, therapeutic area and type of adaptation. The results in the paper suggest that the use of adaptive designs has increased. They seem to be most often used in phase II trials and in oncology. In phase III trials, the most popular form of adaptation is the group sequential design. The review failed to capture all trials with adaptive designs, which suggests that the reporting of adaptive designs, such as in clinical trials registers, needs much improving. We recommend that clinical trial registers should contain sections dedicated to the type and scope of the adaptation and that the term ‘adaptive design’ should be included in the trial title or at least in the brief summary or design sections. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1273-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background and Purpose— The purpose of this study was to test the feasibility of conducting a randomized controlled trial to study the effectiveness of self-managed computer treatment for people with long-standing aphasia after stroke. Method— In this pilot single-blinded, parallel-group, randomized controlled trial participants with aphasia were allocated to self-managed computer treatment with volunteer support or usual care (everyday language activity). The 5-month intervention period was followed by 3 months without intervention to investigate treatment maintenance. Results— Thirty-four participants were recruited. Seventeen participants were allocated to each group. Thirteen participants from the usual care group and 15 from the computer treatment group were followed up at 5 months. An average of 4 hours 43 minutes speech and language therapy time and 4 hours volunteer support time enabled an average of 25 hours of independent practice. The difference in percentage change in naming ability from baseline at 5 months between groups was 19.8% (95% CI, 4.4–35.2; P =0.014) in favor of the treatment group. Participants with more severe aphasia showed little benefit. Results demonstrate early indications of cost-effectiveness of self-managed computer therapy. Conclusion— This pilot trial indicates that self-managed computer therapy for aphasia is feasible and that it will be practical to recruit sufficient participants to conduct an appropriately powered clinical trial to investigate the effectiveness of self-managed computer therapy for people with long-standing aphasia. Clinical Trial Registration— www.controlled-trials.com . Unique identifier: ISRCTN91534629.

A number of meta-analyses have been undertaken to assess both the safety and efficacy of antidepressants in paediatric and adolescent patients. This article updates the analyses with additionally reported trials. The aim of this analysis was to investigate whether antidepressant treatments are associated with an increased risk of suicide-related outcomes in paediatric and adolescent patients. Also, in the same population, to assess whether antidepressant treatments are beneficial in terms of efficacy. A meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials of antidepressant treatments compared with placebo in paediatric and adolescent patients was undertaken of 6039 individuals participating in 35 randomised controlled trials. For suicide-related outcomes suicidal behaviour, suicidal ideation and suicidal behaviour or ideation were examined. These data presented the additional problem of the events of interest being rare. An analysis was described in this article to account for the rare events that also included studies which had no events on either treatment arm. There were trends to indicate that active treatments increased the risk of these events in absolute terms. For efficacy, the results indicated that antidepressant treatments did have a statistically significant effects compared to placebo but the effect was less for the trials in depression. The results are in the main consistent with previous meta-analyses on a smaller number of trials. There was evidence of an increased risk in suicide-related outcomes on antidepressant treatments, while antidepressant treatments were also shown to be efficacious.

In a non-inferiority trial to assess a new investigative treatment, there may need to be consideration of an indirect comparison with placebo using the active control in the current trial. We can, therefore, use the fact that there is a common active control in the comparisons of the investigative treatment and placebo. In analysing a non-inferiority trial, the ABC of: Assay sensitivity, Bias minimisation and Constancy assumption needs to be considered. It is highlighted how the ABC assumptions can potentially fail when there is placebo creep or a patient population shift. In this situation, the belief about the placebo response expressed in terms of a prior probability in Bayesian formulation could be used with the observed treatment effects to set the non-inferiority limit.

Since the web-based registry ClinicalTrials.gov was launched on 29 February 2000, the pharmaceutical industry has made available an increasing amount of information about the clinical trials that it sponsors. The process has been spurred on by a number of factors including a wish by the industry to provide greater transparency regarding clinical trial data; and has been both aided and complicated by the number of institutions that have a legitimate interest in guiding and defining what should be made available. This article reviews the history of this process of making information about clinical trials publicly available. It provides a reader's guide to the study registries and the databases of results; and looks at some indicators of consistency in the posting of study information. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Concerns about potentially misleading reporting of pharmaceutical industry research have surfaced many times. The potential for duality (and thereby conflict) of interest is only too clear when you consider the sums of money required for the discovery, development and commercialization of new medicines. As the ability of major, mid-size and small pharmaceutical companies to innovate has waned, as evidenced by the seemingly relentless decline in the numbers of new medicines approved by Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency year-on-year, not only has the cost per new approved medicine risen: so too has the public and media concern about the extent to which the pharmaceutical industry is open and honest about the efficacy, safety and quality of the drugs we manufacture and sell. In 2005 an Editorial in Journal of the American Medical Association made clear that, so great was their concern about misleading reporting of industry-sponsored studies, henceforth no article would be published that was not also guaranteed by independent statistical analysis. We examine the precursors to this Editorial, as well as its immediate and lasting effects for statisticians, for the manner in which statistical analysis is carried out, and for the industry more generally.

In this paper we set out what we consider to be a set of best practices for statisticians in the reporting of pharmaceutical industry-sponsored clinical trials. We make eight recommendations covering: author responsibilities and recognition; publication timing; conflicts of interest; freedom to act; full author access to data; trial registration and independent review. These recommendations are made in the context of the prominent role played by statisticians in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of pharmaceutical sponsored trials and the perception of the reporting of these trials in the wider community.

Biostatisticians have frequently uncritically accepted the measurements provided by their medical colleagues engaged in clinical research. Such measures often involve considerable loss of information. Particularly, unfortunate is the widespread use of the so-called 'responder analysis', which may involve not only a loss of information through dichotomization, but also extravagant and unjustified causal inference regarding individual treatment effects at the patient level, and, increasingly, the use of the so-called number needed to treat scale of measurement. Other problems involve inefficient use of baseline measurements, the use of covariates measured after the start of treatment, the interpretation of titrations and composite response measures. Many of these bad practices are becoming enshrined in the regulatory guidance to the pharmaceutical industry. We consider the losses involved in inappropriate measures and suggest that statisticians should pay more attention to this aspect of their work.

Indirect comparisons are undertaken when a comparison is made between two regimens, usually where the regimens have never been given concurrently in any controlled trial investigating the same general patient population. We highlight the issues of making indirect comparisons when there has been a period of time between the studies, particularly when indirect comparison is being made to placebo. We discuss the impact of any bias in indirectly estimating any effect over placebo in context with noninferiority trials.

We show that the proportion of estimates of mean effects in future trials that would be expected to fall within the 95% confidence interval of a current trial is 83.4% for a large sample size — assuming that the sample size for a future trial is the same as for the current trial. Using the results from this paper you can predict the results for future trials from those observed in the current trial.

Background\ud Appropriately conducted adaptive designs (ADs) offer many potential advantages over conventional trials. They make better use of accruing data, potentially saving time, trial participants, and limited resources compared to conventional, fixed sample size designs. However, one can argue that ADs are not implemented as often as they should be, particularly in publicly funded confirmatory trials. This study explored barriers, concerns, and potential facilitators to the appropriate use of ADs in confirmatory trials among key stakeholders. \ud \ud Methods\ud We conducted three cross-sectional, online parallel surveys between November 2014 and January 2015. The surveys were based upon findings drawn from in-depth interviews of key research stakeholders, predominantly in the UK, and targeted Clinical Trials Units (CTUs), public funders, and private sector organisations. Response rates were as follows: 30(55 %) UK CTUs, 17(68 %) private sector, and 86(41 %) public funders. A Rating Scale Model was used to rank barriers and concerns in order of perceived importance for prioritisation. \ud \ud Results\ud Top-ranked barriers included the lack of bridge funding accessible to UK CTUs to support the design of ADs, limited practical implementation knowledge, preference for traditional mainstream designs, difficulties in marketing ADs to key stakeholders, time constraints to support ADs relative to competing priorities, lack of applied training, and insufficient access to case studies of undertaken ADs to facilitate practical learning and successful implementation. Associated practical complexities and inadequate data management infrastructure to support ADs were reported as more pronounced in the private sector. For funders of public research, the inadequate description of the rationale, scope, and decision-making criteria to guide the planned AD in grant proposals by researchers were all viewed as major obstacles. \ud \ud Conclusions\ud There are still persistent and important perceptions of individual and organisational obstacles hampering the use of ADs in confirmatory trials research. Stakeholder perceptions about barriers are largely consistent across sectors, with a few exceptions that reflect differences in organisations’ funding structures, experiences and characterisation of study interventions. Most barriers appear connected to a lack of practical implementation knowledge and applied training, and limited access to case studies to facilitate practical learning. \ud \ud Keywords: Adaptive designs; flexible designs; barriers; surveys; confirmatory trials; Phase 3; clinical trials; early stopping; interim analyses

This paper reports the results of a repeat trial assessing the effectiveness of an online theory-based intervention to promote healthy lifestyle behaviours in new university students. The original trial found that the intervention reduced the number of smokers at 6-month follow-up compared with the control condition, but had non-significant effects on the other targeted health behaviours. However, the original trial suffered from low levels of engagement, which the repeat trial sought to rectify. Three weeks before staring university, all incoming undergraduate students at a large university in the UK were sent an email inviting them to participate in the study. After completing a baseline questionnaire, participants were randomly allocated to intervention or control conditions. The intervention consisted of a self-affirmation manipulation, health messages based on the theory of planned behaviour and implementation intention tasks. Participants were followed-up 1 and 6 months after starting university. The primary outcome measures were portions of fruit and vegetables consumed, physical activity levels, units of alcohol consumed and smoking status at 6-month follow-up. The study recruited 2,621 students (intervention n = 1346, control n = 1275), of whom 1495 completed at least one follow-up (intervention n = 696, control n = 799). Intention-to-treat analyses indicated that the intervention had a non-significant effect on the primary outcomes, although the effect of the intervention on fruit and vegetable intake was significant in the per-protocol analyses. Secondary analyses revealed that the intervention had significant effects on having smoked at university (self-report) and on a biochemical marker of alcohol use. Despite successfully increasing levels of engagement, the intervention did not have a significant effect on the primary outcome measures. The relatively weak effects of the intervention, found in both the original and repeat trials, may be due to the focus on multiple versus single health behaviours. Future interventions targeting the health behaviour of new university students should therefore focus on single health behaviours. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN07407344 .

Background\ud \ud It can be argued that adaptive designs are underused in clinical research. We have explored concerns related to inadequate reporting of such trials, which may influence their uptake. Through a careful examination of the literature, we evaluated the standards of reporting of group sequential (GS) randomised controlled trials, one form of a confirmatory adaptive design.\ud \ud Methods\ud \ud We undertook a systematic review, by searching Ovid MEDLINE from the 1st January 2001 to 23rd September 2014, supplemented with trials from an audit study. We included parallel group, confirmatory, GS trials that were prospectively designed using a Frequentist approach. Eligible trials were examined for compliance in their reporting against the CONSORT 2010 checklist. In addition, as part of our evaluation, we developed a supplementary checklist to explicitly capture group sequential specific reporting aspects, and investigated how these are currently being reported.\ud \ud Results\ud \ud Of the 284 screened trials, 68(24%) were eligible. Most trials were published in “high impact” peer-reviewed journals. Examination of trials established that 46(68%) were stopped early, predominantly either for futility or efficacy. Suboptimal reporting compliance was found in general items relating to: access to full trials protocols; methods to generate randomisation list(s); details of randomisation concealment, and its implementation. Benchmarking against the supplementary checklist, GS aspects were largely inadequately reported. Only 3(7%) trials which stopped early reported use of statistical bias correction. Moreover, 52(76%) trials failed to disclose methods used to minimise the risk of operational bias, due to the knowledge or leakage of interim results. Occurrence of changes to trial methods and outcomes could not be determined in most trials, due to inaccessible protocols and amendments.\ud \ud Discussion and Conclusions\ud \ud There are issues with the reporting of GS trials, particularly those specific to the conduct of interim analyses. Suboptimal reporting of bias correction methods could potentially imply most GS trials stopping early are giving biased results of treatment effects. As a result, research consumers may question credibility of findings to change practice when trials are stopped early. These issues could be alleviated through a CONSORT extension. Assurance of scientific rigour through transparent adequate reporting is paramount to the credibility of findings from adaptive trials. Our systematic literature search was restricted to one database due to resource constraints.

The study was done to assess the feasibility of conducting a trial evaluating the use of an intradialytic oral nutritional supplement (ONS) on nutritional status. The study design is a single centre, parallel group, external pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT). The setting was at a haemodialysis unit in Sheffield, UK. The aim was to recruit 30 trial participants to allow at least 12 evaluable patients per arm, but the actual study sample consisted of 10 adults with a body mass index (BMI) ≤22 kg/m2, receiving thrice weekly haemodialysis. All participants received nutritional advice from a renal dietitian as per usual practice. The intervention included the provision of an intradialytic ONS. Feasibility outcomes included recruitment to time and retention of participants along with palatability of ONS. Secondary outcomes were clinical parameters to obtain variance and estimates of effect size to inform the sample size calculation for a definitive trial. Recruitment was undertaken for a fixed period of 6 weeks. Rates were lower than expected mainly due to ineligibility with only 7% of screened patients (19/265) being eligible and 4% (10/265) of these being recruited. Due to the small proportion of patients eligible for the trial, all haemodialysis patients at the specified unit were assessed for eligibility. Data completion rates were low for session questionnaires (23%). Sample sizes derived from variance in secondary outcome measure of handgrip strength and adjusted for a dropout rate of 20% indicate that 189 patients would be required for a definitive RCT, requiring 19 UK haemodialysis units to participate. A definitive RCT is feasible with some adaptation to exclusion criteria and methodology. The exclusion criteria could be adapted to include an increase in upper limit for BMI. The use of questionnaires at each dialysis session may not be feasible but the inclusion of appetite and supplement consumption data collection at the main assessments would provide similar outcome data. Quality of life assessment using SF-12 would be acceptable. ISRCTN37431579 .

Recruitment of general practices and their patients into research studies is frequently reported as a challenge. The Preventing and Lessening Exacerbations of Asthma in School-aged children Associated with a New Term (PLEASANT) trial recruited 142 general practices, across England and Wales and delivered the study intervention to time and target. To describe the process of recruitment used within the cluster randomised PLEASANT trial and present results on factors that influenced recruitment. Data were collected on the number of and types of contact used to gain expression of interest and subsequent randomisation into the PLEASANT trial. Practice size and previous research experience were also collected. The mean number of contacts required to gain expression of interest were m=3.01 (s.d. 1.6) and total number of contacts from initial invitation to randomisation m=6.8 (s.d. 3.5). Previous randomised controlled trial involvement (hazard ratio (HR)=1.81 (confidence interval (CI) 95%, 1.55–2.11) P

This paper describes how simple decision science techniques can be used to optimize the clinical development plan for a given compound. Using a case study from the stroke therapeutic area it is shown how methods such as decision trees can be utilized to describe, and adjudicate on, individual development plans. Terminology pertinent to decision sciences is described and areas where it is recommended statisticians should focus are highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Background\ud Aphasia affects the ability to speak, comprehend spoken language, read and write. One third of stroke survivors experience aphasia. Evidence suggests that aphasia can continue to improve after the first few months with intensive speech and language therapy, which is frequently beyond what resources allow. The development of computer software for language practice provides an opportunity for self-managed therapy. This pragmatic randomised controlled trial will investigate the clinical and cost effectiveness of a computerised approach to long-term aphasia therapy post stroke.\ud \ud Methods/Design\ud A total of 285 adults with aphasia at least four months post stroke will be randomly allocated to either usual care, computerised intervention in addition to usual care or attention and activity control in addition to usual care. Those in the intervention group will receive six months of self-managed word finding practice on their home computer with monthly face-to-face support from a volunteer/assistant. Those in the attention control group will receive puzzle activities, supplemented by monthly telephone calls.\ud \ud Study delivery will be coordinated by 20 speech and language therapy departments across the United Kingdom. Outcome measures will be made at baseline, six, nine and 12 months after randomisation by blinded speech and language therapist assessors. Primary outcomes are the change in number of words (of personal relevance) named correctly at six months and improvement in functional conversation. Primary outcomes will be analysed using a Hochberg testing procedure. Significance will be declared if differences in both word retrieval and functional conversation at six months are significant at the 5% level, or if either comparison is significant at 2.5%. A cost utility analysis will be undertaken from the NHS and personal social service perspective. Differences between costs and quality-adjusted life years in the three groups will be described and the incremental cost effectiveness ratio will be calculated. Treatment fidelity will be monitored.\ud \ud Discussion\ud This is the first fully powered trial of the clinical and cost effectiveness of computerised aphasia therapy. Specific challenges in designing the protocol are considered.\ud \ud Trial registration\ud Registered with Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN68798818 webcite on 18 February 2014.

This is a teaching paper intended as a quick introduction to some of the key concepts in the design of pharmaceutical trials for those new to the industry. Since the first ‘modern’ randomized clinical trial was reported in 1948 by the Medical Research Council, clinical trials have become a central component in the assessment of new therapies. The primary objective of any clinical trial is to obtain an unbiased and reliable assessment of a given regimen response independent of any known or unknown prognostic factors. The essential principals of trial design can be thought of as the ABC of allocation at random, blinding and controlled. In addition, the three Rs of endpoint selection – representative, reliability and reproducibility – are relevant in this context. This paper briefly describes the basic concepts for clinical trials and highlights possible points to consider. It draws heavily on the principles highlighted in the International Conference on Harmonisation guidelines as well as recommendations in the CONSORT statement. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Summary Objective It is hypothesised that firstborn children and only children are more intelligent with higher intelligence scores having been observed in firstborn or only children. Evidence of the increased intelligence has been suggested by the fact that 21/23 (91%) of US astronauts, 23/43 (53%) of US presidents and between 75 and 80% of students at Harvard are firstborn or only children. It is of interest to investigate, therefore, whether a high achieving career such as medicine has a disproportionate number of firstborn or only children. Design A survey of medical students. Setting The University of Sheffield Medical School. Participants All students studying medicine in the academic year 2011–2012. Main outcome measures The proportion of firstborn or only children. Results There was a disproportionate number of students who were firstborn or only children: 53% (95% CI 49 to 58%). The expected percentage is 39.8% and therefore we can reject the null hypothesis. The results were consistent across all phases of study. Conclusions There is a higher than expected proportion of medical students at the University of Sheffield who are firstborn or only children. The data though highlight the issue of comparing populations. Here we are comparing a population of medical students with a general population. A comparison which may not be appropriate as medical students may be drawn from a subsample of the general population.