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ImportanceASD diagnosis remains behavior-based and the median age of the first diagnosis remains unchanged at ∼52 months, which is nearly 5 years after its first trimester origin. Long delays between ASD’s prenatal onset and eventual diagnosis likely is a missed opportunity. However, accurate and clinically-translatable early-age diagnostic methods do not exist due to ASD genetic and clinical heterogeneity. There is a need for early-age diagnostic biomarkers of ASD that is robust against its heterogeneity.ObjectiveTo develop a single blood-based molecular classifier that accurately diagnoses ASD at the age of first symptoms.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsN=264 ASD, typically developing (TD), and language delayed (LD) toddlers with their clinical, diagnostic, and leukocyte RNA data collected. Datasets included Discovery (n=175 ASD, TD subjects), Longitudinal (n=33 ASD, TD subjects), and Replication (n=89 ASD, TD, LD subjects). We developed an ensemble of ASD classifiers by testing 42,840 models composed of 3,570 feature selection sets and 12 classification methods. Models were trained on the Discovery dataset with 5-fold cross validation. Results were used to construct a Bayesian model averaging-based (BMA) ensemble classifier model that was tested in Discovery and Replication datasets. Data were collected from 2007 to 2012 and analyzed from August 2019 to April 2021.Main Outcomes and MeasuresPrimary outcomes were (1) comparisons of the performance of 42,840 classifier models in correctly identifying ASD vs TD and LD in Discovery and Replication datasets; and (2) performance of the ensemble model composed of 1,076 models and weighted by Bayesian model averaging technique.ResultsOf 42,840 models trained in the Discovery dataset, 1,076 averaged AUC-ROC>0.8. These 1,076 models used 191 different feature routes and 2,764 gene features. Using weighted BMA of these features and routes, an ensemble classifier model was constructed which demonstrated excellent performance in Discovery and Replication datasets with ASD classification AUC-ROC scores of 84% to 88%. ASD classification accuracy was comparable against LD and TD subjects and in the Longitudinal dataset. ASD toddlers with ensemble scores above and below the ASD ensemble mean had similar diagnostic and psychometric scores, but those below the ASD ensemble mean had more prenatal risk events than TD toddlers. Ensemble features include genes with immune/inflammation, response to cytokines, transcriptional regulation, mitotic cell cycle, and PI3K-AKT, RAS, and Wnt signaling pathways.Conclusions and RelevanceAn ensemble ASD molecular classifier has high and replicable accuracy across the spectrum of ASD clinical characteristics and across toddlers aged 1 to 4 years, which has potential for clinical translation.Key PointsQuestionSince ASD is genetically and clinical heterogeneous, can a single blood-based molecular classifier accurately diagnose ASD at the age of first symptoms?FindingsTo address heterogeneity, we developed an ASD classifier method testing 42,840 models. An ensemble of 1,076 models using 191 different feature routes and 2,764 gene features, weighted by Bayesian model averaging, demonstrated excellent performance in Discovery and Replication datasets producing ASD classification with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) scores of 84% to 88%. Features include genes with immune/inflammation, response to cytokines, transcriptional regulation, mitotic cell cycle, and PI3K-AKT, RAS and Wnt signaling pathways.MeaningAn ensemble gene expression ASD classifier has high accuracy across the spectrum of ASD clinical characteristics and across toddlers aged 1 to 4 years.

Hundreds of genes are implicated in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) but the mechanisms through which they contribute to ASD pathophysiology remain elusive. Here, we analyzed leukocyte transcriptomics from 1-4 year-old male toddlers with ASD or typical development from the general population. We discovered a perturbed gene network that includes genes that are highly expressed during fetal brain development and which is dysregulated in hiPSC-derived neuron models of ASD. High-confidence ASD risk genes emerge as upstream regulators of the network, and many risk genes may impact the network by modulating RAS/ERK, PI3K/AKT, and WNT/β-catenin signaling pathways. We found that the degree of dysregulation in this network correlated with the severity of ASD symptoms in the toddlers. These results demonstrate how the heterogeneous genetics of ASD may dysregulate a core network to influence brain development at prenatal and very early postnatal ages and, thereby, the severity of later ASD symptoms.

Objectives To examine the impact of a new approach, Get SET Early, on the rates of early autism spectrum disorder (ASD) detection and factors that influence the screen-evaluate-treat chain. Study design After attending Get SET Early training, 203 pediatricians administered 57 603 total screens using the Communication and Symbolic Behavior Scales Infant-Toddler Checklist at 12-, 18-, and 24-month well-baby examinations, and parents designated presence or absence of concern. For screen-positive toddlers, pediatricians specified if the child was being referred for evaluation, and if not, why not. Results Collapsed across ages, toddlers were evaluated and referred for treatment at a median age of 19 months, and those screened at 12 months (59.4% of sample) by 15 months. Pediatricians referred one-third of screen-positive toddlers for evaluation, citing lack of confidence in the accuracy of screen-positive results as the primary reason for nonreferral. If a parent expressed concerns, referral probability doubled, and the rate of an ASD diagnosis increased by 37%. Of 897 toddlers evaluated, almost one-half were diagnosed as ASD, translating into an ASD prevalence of 1%. Conclusions The Get SET Early model was effective at detecting ASD and initiating very early treatment. Results also underscored the need for change in early identification approaches to formally operationalize and incorporate pediatrician judgment and level of parent concern into the process.

Although de novo missense mutations have been predicted to account for more cases of autism than gene-truncating mutations, most research has focused on the latter. We identified the properties of de novo missense mutations in patients with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) and highlight 35 genes with excess missense mutations. Additionally, 40 amino acid sites were recurrently mutated in 36 genes, and targeted sequencing of 20 sites in 17,688 patients with NDD identified 21 new patients with identical missense mutations. One recurrent site substitution (p.A636T) occurs in a glutamate receptor subunit, GRIA1. This same amino acid substitution in the homologous but distinct mouse glutamate receptor subunit Grid2 is associated with Lurcher ataxia. Phenotypic follow-up in five individuals with GRIA1 mutations shows evidence of specific learning disabilities and autism. Overall, we find significant clustering of de novo mutations in 200 genes, highlighting specific functional domains and synaptic candidate genes important in NDD pathology.

Item does not contain fulltext Gene-disruptive mutations contribute to the biology of neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), but most of the related pathogenic genes are not known. We sequenced 208 candidate genes from >11,730 cases and >2,867 controls. We identified 91 genes, including 38 new NDD genes, with an excess of de novo mutations or private disruptive mutations in 5.7% of cases. Drosophila functional assays revealed a subset with increased involvement in NDDs. We identified 25 genes showing a bias for autism versus intellectual disability and highlighted a network associated with high-functioning autism (full-scale IQ >100). Clinical follow-up for NAA15, KMT5B, and ASH1L highlighted new syndromic and nonsyndromic forms of disease.

This study examines the diagnostic stability of autism spectrum disorder in a large cohort of toddlers starting at 12 months of age and compares this stability with that of toddlers with other disorders., Key Points Question Is an autism spectrum disorder diagnosis stable by 18 months, the earliest age of American Academy of Pediatrics recommended screening? Findings In a cohort study of 1269 toddlers with and without autism spectrum disorder who received their first diagnostic evaluation between 12 and 36 months, overall stability of an autism spectrum diagnosis was 0.84, which was higher than in other groups. Meaning Accurate diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder at earlier than 18 months is feasible, and there may be opportunities to test the usefulness of autism spectrum disorder treatment at an early age., Importance Universal early screening for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in primary care is becoming increasingly common and is believed to be a pivotal step toward early treatment. However, the diagnostic stability of ASD in large cohorts from the general population, particularly in those younger than 18 months, is unknown. Changes in the phenotypic expression of ASD across early development compared with toddlers with other delays are also unknown. Objectives To examine the diagnostic stability of ASD in a large cohort of toddlers starting at 12 months of age and to compare this stability with that of toddlers with other disorders, such as developmental delay. Design, Setting, and Participants In this prospective cohort study performed from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2018, a total of 2241 toddlers were referred from the general population through a universal screening program in primary care or community referral. Eligible toddlers received their first diagnostic evaluation between 12 and 36 months of age and had at least 1 subsequent evaluation. Exposures Diagnosis was denoted after each evaluation visit as ASD, ASD features, language delay, developmental delay, other developmental issue, typical sibling of an ASD proband, or typical development. Main Outcomes and Measures Diagnostic stability coefficients were calculated within 2-month age bands, and logistic regression models were used to explore the associations of sex, age, diagnosis at first visit, and interval between first and last diagnosis with stability. Toddlers with a non-ASD diagnosis at their first visit diagnosed with ASD at their last were designated as having late-identified ASD. Results Among the 1269 toddlers included in the study (918 [72.3%] male; median age at first evaluation, 17.6 months [interquartile range, 14.0-24.4 months]; median age at final evaluation, 36.2 months [interquartile range, 33.4-40.9 months]), the overall diagnostic stability for ASD was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.80-0.87), which was higher than any other diagnostic group. Only 7 toddlers (1.8%) initially considered to have ASD transitioned into a final diagnosis of typical development. Diagnostic stability of ASD within the youngest age band (12-13 months) was lowest at 0.50 (95% CI, 0.32-0.69) but increased to 0.79 by 14 months and 0.83 by 16 months (age bands of 12 vs 14 and 16 years; odds ratio, 4.25; 95% CI, 1.59-11.74). A total of 105 toddlers (23.8%) were not designated as having ASD at their first visit but were identified at a later visit. Conclusions and Relevance The findings suggest that an ASD diagnosis becomes stable starting at 14 months of age and overall is more stable than other diagnostic categories, including language or developmental delay. After a toddler is identified as having ASD, there may be a low chance that he or she will test within typical levels at 3 years of age. This finding opens the opportunity to test the impact of very early-age treatment of ASD.