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Since 2001, an aid consortium known as Gavi has accounted for over half of vaccines purchased in the 75 eligible countries with an initial GNI below $1,000 per capita. Regression discontinuity estimates suggest most aid for cheap, existing vaccines like hepatitis B and DPT was inframarginal: for instance, hepatitis B doses sufficient to vaccinate roughly 75% of infants raised vaccination rates by single-digit margins. These results are driven by middle-income countries near the eligibility threshold, and do not preclude larger gains for the poorest countries, global externalities via vaccine markets, or impacts on newer vaccines such as pneumococcal or rotavirus for which income eligibility rules were relaxed.

Accountable care organizations (ACOs) and bundled payments represent prominent value-based payment models, but the magnitude of overlap between the two models has not yet been described. Using Medicare data, we defined overlap based on attribution to Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) ACOs and hospitalization for Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) episodes at BPCI participant hospitals. Between 2013 and 2016, overlap as a share of ACO patients increased from 2.7% to 10% across BPCI episodes, while overlap as a share of all bundled payment patients increased from 19% to 27%. Overlap from the perspectives of both ACO and bundled payments varied by specific episode. In the first description of overlap between ACOs and bundled payments, one in every ten MSSP patients received care under BPCI by the end of our study period, whereas more than one in every four patients receiving care under BPCI were also attributed to MSSP. Policymakers should consider strategies to address the clinical and policy implications of increasing payment model overlap.

Importance Medicare’s Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) initiative for lower extremity joint replacement (LEJR) surgery has been associated with a reduction in episode spending and stable-to-improved quality. However, BPCI may create unintended effects by prompting participating hospitals to increase the overall volume of episodes paid for by Medicare, which could potentially eliminate program-related savings or prompt them to shift case mix to lower-risk patients. Objective To evaluate whether hospital BPCI participation for LEJR was associated with changes in overall volume and case mix. Design, Setting, and Participants Observational study using Medicare claims data and a difference-in-differences method to compare 131 markets (hospital referral regions) with at least 1 BPCI participant hospital (n = 322) and 175 markets with no participating hospitals (n = 1340), accounting for 580 043 Medicare beneficiaries treated before (January 2011-September 2013) and 462 161 after (October 2013-December 2015) establishing the BPCI initiative. Hospital-level case-mix changes were assessed by comparing 265 participating hospitals with a 1:1 propensity-matched set of nonparticipating hospitals from non-BPCI markets. Exposures Hospital BPCI participation. Main Outcomes and Measures Changes in market-level LEJR volume in the before vs after BPCI periods and changes in hospital-level case mix based on demographic, socioeconomic, clinical, and utilization factors. Results Among the 1 717 243 Medicare beneficiaries who underwent LEJR (mean age, 75 years; 64% women; and 95% nonblack race/ethnicity), BPCI participation was not significantly associated with a change in overall market-level volume. The mean quarterly market volume in non-BPCI markets increased 3.8% from 3.8 episodes per 1000 beneficiaries before BPCI to 3.9 episodes per 1000 beneficiaries after BPCI was launched. For BPCI markets, the mean quarterly market volume increased 4.4% from 3.6 episodes per 1000 beneficiaries before BPCI to 3.8 episodes per 1000 beneficiaries after BPCI was launched. The adjusted difference-in-differences estimate between the market types was 0.32% (95% CI, −0.06% to 0.69%;P = .10). Among 20 demographic, socioeconomic, clinical, and utilization factors, BPCI participation was associated with differential changes in hospital-level case mix for only 1 factor, prior skilled nursing facility use (adjusted difference-in-differences estimate, −0.53%; 95% CI, −0.96% to −0.10%;P = .01) in BPCI vs non-BPCI markets. Conclusions and Relevance In this observational study of Medicare beneficiaries who underwent LEJR, hospital participation in Bundled Payments for Care Improvement was not associated with changes in market-level lower extremity joint replacement volume and largely was not associated with changes in hospital case mix. These findings may provide reassurance regarding 2 potential unintended effects associated with bundled payments for LEJR.