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Objectives The objectives of this study were to identify variables associated with dementia and entry into aged residential care (ARC) and derive and validate a risk prediction model for dementia and entry into ARC. Design This was an observational study of prospectively collected Home Care International Residential Assessment Instrument (interRAI-HC) assessment data. Setting and Participants Participants included all people age ≥65 years who had completed an interRAI-HC assessment between July 1, 2012 and June 30, 2018. Exclusion criteria included death or entry into ARC within 30 days of assessment and not living at home at the time of the assessment. Measures InterRAI data from 94,202 older New Zealanders were evaluated for presence or absence of dementia. A multivariable competing-risks model for entry into ARC with death as the competing event was used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR). Results In total, there were 18,672 (19.8%) persons with dementia (PWD). PWD were almost twice as likely to enter ARC as persons without dementia [42.8% vs 25.3%; difference 17.5% (95% confidence interval 16.7%‒18.2%)]. PWD at highest risk of entering ARC were those where there was a desire to live elsewhere (SHR 1.44), depression (indicated, SHR 1.15), poor cognitive performance (Cognitive Performance Scale minimal SHR 1.32 and severe plus SHR 1.91), and wandering (SHR 1.19). Factors associated with reduced risks of PWD entering ARC were living with a child or relative, alcohol consumption, and comorbidities. Conclusions and Implications A desire to live elsewhere, social isolation, independent activities of daily living, and depression were independently associated with entry into ARC. Supporting caregivers may improve outcomes for PWD that delay entry into ARC. Future revisions of the interRAI questionnaire could provide more insight on this matter.

Objective To identify factors associated with caregiver distress among home care clients in New Zealand. Methods The cohort consisted of 105,978 community-dwelling people aged 65 years or older requiring home care services in New Zealand who had at least one informal caregiver. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with caregiver distress. Results Variables associated with risk of caregiver distress included Depression Rating Scale score, aggressive behaviour symptoms, primary informal caregiver relationship to patient, Cognitive Performance Scale score, Changes in Health, End-stage disease, and Signs and Symptoms Scale score, informal care time, secondary informal caregiver relationship to care recipient, activities of daily living hierarchy scale score and any hospitalisation. Conclusion The study has identified important characteristics that are associated with caregiver stress. These results suggest that caregiver distress can be relieved by promoting protective factors and aiming to reduce risk factors among home care clients in New Zealand. ispartof: Australasian Journal On Ageing vol:41 issue:2 pages:237-246 ispartof: location:Australia status: published

Background Falls and falls-related injuries are common among older adults. Injuries in older adults lead to poor outcomes and lower quality of life. The objective of our study was to identify factors associated with fall-related injuries among home care clients in New Zealand. Methods The study cohort consisted of 75,484 community-dwelling people aged 65 years or older who underwent an interRAI home care assessment between June 2012 and June 2018 in New Zealand. The injuries included for analysis were fracture of the distal radius, hip fracture, pelvic fracture, proximal humerus fracture, subarachnoid haemorrhage, traumatic subdural haematoma, and vertebral fracture. Unadjusted and adjusted competing risk regression models were used to identify factors associated with fall-related injuries. Results A total of 7414 (9.8%) people sustained a falls-related injury over the 6-year period, and most injuries sustained were hip fractures (4735 63.9%). The rate of injurious falls was 47 per 1000 person-years. The factors associated with injury were female sex, older age, living alone, Parkinson’s disease, stroke/CVA, falls, unsteady gait, tobacco use, and being underweight. Cancer, dyspnoea, high BMI, and a decrease in the amount of food or fluid usually consumed, were associated with a reduced risk of sustaining an injury. After censoring hip fractures the risks associated with other types of injury were sex, age, previous falls, dyspnoea, tobacco use, and BMI. Conclusions While it is important to reduce the risk of falls, it is especially important to reduce the risk of falls-related injuries. Knowledge of risk factors associated with these types of injuries can help to develop focused intervention programmes and development of a predictive model to identify those who would benefit from intervention programmes.

Background Little is known about the prevalence of frailty in indigenous populations. We developed a frailty index (FI) for older New Zealand Māori and Pasifika who require publicly funded support services. Methods An FI was developed for New Zealand adults aged 65 and older who had an interRAI Home Care assessment between June 1, 2012 and October 30, 2015. A frailty score for each participant was calculated by summing the number of deficits recorded and dividing by the total number of possible deficits. This created a FI with a potential range from 0 to 1. Linear regression models for FIs with ethnicity were adjusted for age and sex. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between the FI and mortality for Māori, Pasifika, and non-Māori/non-Pasifika. Results Of 54 345 participants, 3096 (5.7%) identified as Māori, 1846 (3.4%) were Pasifika, and 49 415 (86.7%) identified as neither Māori nor Pasifika. New Zealand Europeans (48 178, 97.5%) constituted most of the latter group. Within each sex, the mean FIs for Māori and Pasifika were greater than the mean FIs for non-Māori and non-Pasifika, with the difference being more pronounced in women. The FI was associated with mortality (Māori subhazard ratio [SHR] 2.53, 95% CI 1.63–3.95; Pasifika SHR 6.03, 95% CI 3.06–11.90; non-Māori and non-Pasifika SHR 2.86, 95% CI 2.53–3.25). Conclusions This study demonstrated differences in FI between the ethnicities in this select cohort. After adjustment for age and sex, increases in FI were associated with increased mortality. This suggests that FI is predictive of poor outcomes in these ethnic groups.

Background Currently, one-year survival of older people with complex co-morbidities is unpredictable. Identifying older adults with a reduced life expectancy will lead to more targeted care and better healthcare resource allocation. Methods Development and validation of one-year and three-month mortality risks in people aged ≥65 years who had completed an International Resident Assessment Instrument-Home Care (interRAI-HC) assessment between July 2012 and March 2018. Data was split into development (90%) and validation data sets (10%). A multivariable logistic regression model using data from 108 interRAI questions across multiple domains was developed and validated using discrimination metrics and calibration curves. Variables each explaining at least 1% of the model were then used to develop and validate a parsimonious model. Subgroups by sex, age, ethnicity, and comorbidities were evaluated. Findings There were 104,436 persons (60.2% female; mean age 82.1 years) in the study cohort of whom 20,972 (20.1%) died within one year. The full multivariable model had area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.778 to 0.795 in the 5 validation datasets and was well calibrated. After variable reduction a parsimonious model consisted of 16 variables and was well calibrated and the AUC remained high: 0.773 (0.769 to 0.777). The three-month parsimonious model comprised 22 variables and was well calibrated with an AUC of 0.843 (95%CI: 0.839 to 0.848). Interpretation These community-based risk prediction models accurately predict mortality in older people with complex co-morbidities. They may contribute to both forecasting for policy making and clinical decision making regarding an individual's needs. Funding The New Zealand Health Research Council.

Background: Heart failure is a common condition in older people with complex medical needs. A key factor in resilience after heart failure is the capacity to perform the instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs). Knowing the association between capacity to perform IADLs and entry into aged residential care will help health professionals plan interventions that will allow older people to remain independent longer. Methods: We analyzed the association between the capacity to perform eight IADLs and entry into ARC. Participants included New Zealanders aged ≥65 years with a diagnosis of heart failure, and who had an InterRAI 9.1 Home Care assessment between July 2012 and June 2018. A multivariable competing risks regression model for entry to ARC with death as the competing risks was used to establish sub-hazard ratios (SHR) for IADL capacity. Co-variates included demographic variables, co-morbidities, living arrangements, cognitive performance, depression, timed walk, alcohol use, smoking, activities of daily living, recent hospitalization and history of falls. Results: There were 13,220 participants with heart failure who were followed for a median 1.69 (0.70–3.17) years. There were 3,177 (24.0%) participants who entered aged residential care and 5,714 (43.2%) who died without having first entered residential care. Overall capacity to perform specific IADLs was “very poor” for housework (85.5%), shopping (68.0%), stairs (61.7%), meal preparation (53.0%), and transportation (52.2%). In the multivariable model, compared to adequate capacity (the reference) poorer capacity for managing finance, managing medications, meal preparation and transport were all associated with increased risk of entering aged residential care, with SHR from 1.05 to 1.18. Overall, the IADL capacity explained ~10% of the risk of entering aged residential care. Conclusion: Capacity to perform IADL is a key factor in maintaining resilience in older people with heart failure. Capacity to manage finances, transport and medications, prepare meals, and transport oneself with minimal supervision could reduce the risk of entry into aged residential care. Developing early interventions and support for people with poor capacity to perform their IADL may help reduce admission into aged residential care.

Objective: To explore the patterns of living arrangements, ethnicity and loneliness amongst older adults (aged 65+ years) living at home. Methods: National interRAI-HC (International Residential Assessment Instrument-Home Care) assessments conducted between 1 September 2012 and 31 January 2016 were analysed. Analysis focused on the associations between loneliness and both ethnic groups and living arrangements. Results: There were 71 859 eligible participants, with average age 82.7 years, comprising Māori (5%), Pasifika (3%), Asian (2%) and European/Other (89%) ethnic identification. Most stated that they were not lonely (79%), but those living alone were more likely to be lonely (29%) than those living with others (14%) (P < 0.05). Amongst those living alone, significant differences in the likelihood of being lonely emerged between ethnic groups (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Ethnic identification and living arrangements were significantly associated with the likelihood of loneliness for those having an interRAI-HC assessment. Efforts to reduce the negative impacts of loneliness need a nuanced approach.

Background: The Drug Burden Index (DBI) calculates the total sedative and anticholinergic load of prescribed medications and is associated with functional decline and hip fractures in older adults. However, it is unknown if confounding factors influence the relationship between the DBI and hip fractures. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between the DBI and hip fractures, after correcting for mortality and multiple potential confounding factors. Methods: A competing-risks regression analysis conducted on a prospectively recruited New Zealand community-dwelling older population who had a standardized (International Resident Assessment Instrument) assessment between September 1, 2012, and October 31, 2015, the study's end date. Outcome measures were survival status and hip fracture, with time-varying DBI exposure derived from 90-day time intervals. The multivariable competing-risks regression model was adjusted for a large number of medical comorbidities and activities of daily living. Results: Among 70,553 adults assessed, 2,249 (3.2%) experienced at least one hip fracture, 20,194 (28.6%) died without experiencing a fracture, and 48,110 (68.2%) survived without a fracture. The mean follow-up time was 14.9 months (range: 1 day, 37.9 months). The overall DBI distribution was highly skewed, with median time-varying DBI exposure ranging from 0.93 (Q 1 = 0.0, Q 3 = 1.84) to 0.96 (Q 1 = 0.0, Q 3 = 1.90). DBI was significantly related to fracture incidence in unadjusted (p 3 compared with those with DBI = 0 in the adjusted analysis. Conclusions: In this study, increasing DBI was associated with a higher likelihood of fractures after accounting for the competing risk of mortality and adjusting for confounders. The results of this unique study are important in validating the DBI as a guide for medication management and it could help reduce the risk of hip fractures in older adults.

Background Hip fractures are a common injury in older people. Many studies worldwide have identified various risk factors for hip fracture. However, risk factors for hip fracture have not been studied extensively in New Zealand. The interRAI home care assessment consists of 236 health questions and some of these may be related to hip fracture risk. Methods The cohort consisted of 45,046 home care clients aged 65 years and older, in New Zealand. Assessments ranged from September 2012 to October 2015. Hip fracture diagnosis was identified by linking ICD (International Classification of Diseases) codes from hospital admissions data (September 2012 to December 2015) to the interRAI home care data. Unadjusted and adjusted competing risk regressions, using the Fine and Gray method were used to identify risk factors for hip fracture. Mortality was the competing event. Results The cohort consisted of 61% female with a mean age of 82.7 years. A total of 3010 (6.7%) of the cohort sustained a hip fracture after assessment. After adjusting for sociodemographic and potentially confounding variables falls (SHR (Subhazard Ratio) = 1.17, 95% CI (Confidence interval): 1.05–1.31), previous hip fracture (SHR = 4.16, 95% CI: 2.93–5.89), female gender (SHR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.22–1.55), underweight (SHR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.39–2.02), tobacco use (SHR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.25–1.96), Parkinson’s disease (SHR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.14–1.84), and Wandering (SHR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.07–1.72) were identified as risk factors for hip fracture. Shortness of breath (SHR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.71–0.90), was identified as being protective against hip fracture risk. Males and females had different significant risk factors. Conclusions Risk factors for hip fracture similar to international work on risk factors for hip fracture, can be identified using the New Zealand version of the interRAI home care assessment. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-019-1107-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Frailty in older adults is a condition characterised by a loss or reduction in physiological reserve resulting in increased clinical vulnerability. However, evidence suggests that frailty may be modifiable, and identifying frail older people could help better target specific health care interventions and services. Methods This was a regional longitudinal study to develop a frailty index for older adults living in Canterbury New Zealand. Participants included 5586 community dwelling older people that had an interRAI Minimum Data Set (MDS-HC) Home Care assessment completed between 2008 and 2012. The outcome measures were mortality and entry into aged residential care (ARC), after five years. Results Participants were aged between 65 and 101 (mean age was 82 years). The five-year mortality rate, including those who entered ARC, for this cohort was 67.1% (n = 3747). The relationship between the frailty index and both mortality and entry into ARC was significant (P

Adverse outcomes associated with advanced diseases are often exacerbated by polypharmacy.The current study investigated an association between exposure to anticholinergic and sedative medicines and falls in community-dwelling older people, after controlling for potential confounders.We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study of a continuously recruited national cohort of community-dwelling New Zealanders aged 65 years and over. Participants had an International Resident Assessment Instrument-Home Care (interRAI-HC) assessment between 1 September 2012 and 31 January 2016. InterRAI-HC is a comprehensive, multi-domain, standardised assessment. This study captured 18 variables, including fall frequency, from the interRAI. These data were deterministically matched with the Drug Burden Index (DBI) for each participant, derived from an anonymised national dispensed pharmaceuticals database. DBI groupings were statistically ascertained, and ordinal regression models employed.Overall, there were 71,856 participants, with a mean age of 82.7 years (range 65-106); 43,802 (61.0%) were female, and 63,578 (88.5%) were New Zealand European. In unadjusted and adjusted analyses, DBI groupings were related to falls (p 0.001). A DBI score 3 was associated with a 41% increase in falls compared with a DBI score of 0 (p 0.001). There was a 'dose-response' relationship between DBI levels and falls risk.DBI was found to be independently and positively associated with a greater risk of falls in this cohort after adjustment for 18 known confounders. We suggest that the DBI could be a valuable tool for clinicians to use alongside electronic prescribing to help reduce falls in older people.