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BackgroundEstimating the actual number of COVID-19 infections is crucial for steering through the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. It is, however, notoriously difficult, as many cases have no or only mild symptoms. Surveillance data for in-household secondary infections offers unbiased samples for COVID-19 prevalence estimation.MethodsWe analyse 16 115 Polish surveillance records to obtain key figures of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose conservative upper and lower bound estimators for the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Further, we estimate age-dependent bounds on the severe case rate, death rate, and the in-household attack rate.ResultsBy maximum likelihood estimates, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Poland as of July 22nd, 2020, is at most around 13 times larger and at least 1.6 times larger than the recorded number. The lower bound on the severeness rate ranges between 0.2% for the 0–39 year-old to 5.7% for older than 80, while the upper bound is between 2.6% and 34.1%. The lower bound on the death rate is between 0.04% for the age group 40–59 to 1.34% for the oldest. Overall, the severeness and death rates grow exponentially with age. The in-household attack ratio is 8.18% for the youngest group and 16.88% for the oldest.ConclusionsThe proposed approach derives highly relevant figures on the COVID-19 pandemic from routine surveillance data, under assumption that household members of detected infected are tested and all severe cases are diagnosed.MOCOSThe MOCOS (MOdellingCOronaSpread) international research group is an interdisciplinary scientific consortium. The following authors are MOCOS members: Barbara Adamik, Marek Bawiec, Viktor Bezborodov, Przemyslaw Biecek, Wolfgang Bock, Marcin Bodych, Jan Pablo Burgard, Tyll Krueger, Agata Migalska, Tomasz Ożański, Barbara Pabjan, Magdalena Rosińska, Piotr Sobczyk and Ewa Szczurek

Objectives: The burden of acute gastrointestinal infections (AGIs) on the society has not been well studied in Central European countries, which prevents the implementation of effective, targeted public health interventions. Methods: We investigated patients of 11 randomly selected general practices and 8 hospital units. Each patient meeting the international AGI case definition criteria was interviewed on costs incurred related to the use of health care resources. Follow-up interview with consenting patients was conducted 2 to 4 weeks after the general practitioner (GP) visit or discharge from hospital, collecting information on self-medication costs and indirect costs. Costs were recalculated to US dollars by using the purchasing power parity exchange rate for Poland. Results: Weighting the inpatient costs by age-specific probability of hospital referral by GPs, the societal cost of a medically attended AGI case was estimated to be US $168. The main cost drivers of direct medical costs were cost of hospital bed days (US $28), cost of outpatient pharmacotherapy (US $20), and cost of GP consultation (US $10). Patients covered only the cost of outpatient pharmacotherapy. Considering the AGI population GP consultation rate, the age-adjusted societal cost of medically attended AGI episodes was estimated at US $2222 million, of which 53% was attributable to indirect costs. Conclusions: Even though AGIs generate a low cost for individuals, they place a high burden on the society, attributed mostly to indirect costs. Higher resources could be allocated to the prevention and control of AGIs.

SUMMARYA prospective survey was conducted in patients admitted to 11 randomly selected general practices and eight hospitals located in six provinces of Poland. For each patient meeting the international acute gastrointestinal infection (AGI) case definition criteria, information was collected on healthcare resources used. Antibacterial drug consumption was assessed using defined daily doses (DDD) and extrapolated to the national level using results from a parallel study of AGI incidence in the community. Additionally, a logistic multivariable model was fitted assessing determinants of antibacterial drug administration. Valid questionnaires were collected from 385 general practitioner (GP) consultations and 504 hospital admissions. Antibacterials for systemic use were prescribed during 60 (16%) GP consultations and 179 (36%) hospital admissions. The estimated societal AGI-related consumption of antibacterials amounted to 5·48 million DDD (95% uncertainty interval 1·56–14·12 million DDD). Antibacterial prescription was associated with work in large practices [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3·16] and hospital wards (aOR 2·87), compared to small general practices, referral for microbiological testing (aOR 2·88), presence of fever (aOR 2·50), presence of mucus or blood in stool (aOR 1·94), age >65 yearsvs. vs. urban residence (aOR 1·53). Despite the fact that antibacterials were prescribed to a minority of consulted AGI patients, their consumption in society was not negligible due to the high prevalence of AGI symptoms. Prescription of antibacterial drugs should be restricted to cases with specific indications, preferably following microbiological investigation of AGI aetiology. To achieve this, clear national recommendations should be widely disseminated to physicians, and included in medical training curricula.

Background The impact of age on melanoma patient outcomes is uncertain. Objective The aim of the study was to analyze the characteristics and treatment outcomes in cutaneous melanoma patients ≥ 65 years of age with lymph node metastases. Methods We analyzed data from 849 consecutive patients with stage III cutaneous melanoma who were treated between 1994 and 2007 at one institution. Of these, 225 (26.5%) were ≥ 65 years of age. The characteristics and disease-specific survival (DSS) from lymph node dissection (LND) date of patients ≥ 65 years of age were compared with those of younger patients. Median follow-up time was 49 months (range: 6–140 months). Results In the ≥ 65 years group (51.6% men), the median Breslow thickness was 5.0 mm and 70% was ulcerated. The 5-year DSS rate was significantly lower in older patients (34%). Multivariate analysis identified older age as an independent prognostic factor for DSS in the overall group. Independent negative prognostic factors of DSS in the group of older stage III patients were identified as features of nodal metastases (extracapsular invasion, HR = 1.74, P = 0.009; and ≥ 4 involved lymph nodes, HR = 1.5; P = 0.008) and male sex (HR = 1.5; P = 0.039). Conclusions This analysis showed that melanoma patients ≥ 65 years of age are characterized by a higher primary tumor stage and worse prognosis in the presence of regional node metastases than younger patients. Additionally, the results indicate that the same radical surgical therapy is necessary for patients ≥ 65 years old as in younger patients.

Background Estimates of treatment failure, change and interruption are lacking for individuals treated in early HIV infection. Methods Using CASCADE data, we compared the effect of treatment in early infection (within 12 months of seroconversion) with that seen in chronic infection on risk of virological failure, change and interruption. Failure was defined as two subsequent measures of HIV RNA>1,000 copies/ml following suppression (500 copies/ml 6 months following initiation. Treatment change and interruption were defined as modification or interruption lasting >1 week. In multivariable competing risks proportional subdistribution hazards models, we adjusted for combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) class, sex, risk group, age, CD4+ T-cell count, HIV RNA and calendar period at treatment initiation. Results Of 1,627 individuals initiating cART early (median 1.8 months from seroconversion), 159, 395 and 692 failed, changed and interrupted therapy, respectively. For 2,710 individuals initiating cART in chronic infection (median 35.9 months from seroconversion), the corresponding values were 266, 569 and 597. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs; 95% CIs) for treatment failure and change were similar between the two treatment groups (0.93 [0.72, 1.20] and 1.06 [0.91, 1.24], respectively). There was an increasing trend in rates of interruption over calendar time for those treated early, and a decreasing trend for those starting treatment in chronic infection. Consequently, compared with chronic infection, treatment interruption was similar for early starters in the early cART period, but the relative hazard increased over calendar time (1.54 [1.33, 1.79] in 2000). Conclusions Individuals initiating treatment in early HIV infection are more likely to interrupt treatment than those initiating later. However, rates of failure and treatment change were similar between the two groups.

BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is endemic to Europe and medically highly significant. This study, focused on Poland, investigated individual risk factors for TBE symptomatic infection.Methods and findingsIn a nation-wide population-based case-control study, of the 351 TBE cases reported to local health departments in Poland in 2009, 178 were included in the analysis. For controls, of 2704 subjects (matched to cases by age, sex, district of residence) selected at random from the national population register, two were interviewed for each case and a total of 327 were suitable for the analysis. Questionnaires yielded information on potential exposure to ticks during the six weeks (maximum incubation period) preceding disease onset in each case. Independent associations between disease and socio-economic factors and occupational or recreational exposure were assessed by conditional logistic regression, stratified according to residence in known endemic and non-endemic areas. Adjusted population attributable fractions (PAF) were computed for significant variables. In endemic areas, highest TBE risk was associated with spending ≥10 hours/week in mixed forests and harvesting forest foods (adjusted odds ratio 19.19 [95% CI: 1.72-214.32]; PAF 0.127 [0.064-0.193]), being unemployed (11.51 [2.84-46.59]; 0.109 [0.046-0.174]), or employed as a forester (8.96 [1.58-50.77]; 0.053 [0.011-0.100]) or non-specialized worker (5.39 [2.21-13.16]; 0.202 [0.090-0.282]). Other activities (swimming, camping and travel to non-endemic regions) reduced risk. Outside TBE endemic areas, risk was greater for those who spent ≥10 hours/week on recreation in mixed forests (7.18 [1.90-27.08]; 0.191 [0.065-0.304]) and visited known TBE endemic areas (4.65 [0.59-36.50]; 0.058 [-0.007-0.144]), while travel to other non-endemic areas reduced risk.ConclusionsThese socio-economic factors and associated human activities identified as risk factors for symptomatic TBE in Poland are consistent with results from previous correlational studies across eastern Europe, and allow public health interventions to be targeted at particularly vulnerable sections of the population.