Hira Tanvir, T. Papadopoulos, Yvonne Tam, Petra Klepac, Emilia Vynnycky, Kaja Abbas, Michael L. Jackson, Mark Jit, Katy A. M. Gaythorpe, Andrew Clark, Amy Winter, Nicholas C. Grassly, Quan Minh Tran, Colin Sanderson, Homie Razavi, Xiang Li, Caroline Trotter, Andromachi Karachaliou, Sean M. Moore, Matthew J. Ferrari, Stephen Sy, Duy M. H. Nguyen, Steven Sweet, Kirsten Eilertson, Justin Lessler, Christinah Mukandavire, Devin Razavi-Shearer, Stephen C Resch, Emily D Carter, Wes Hinsley, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Tini Garske, Shaun A. Truelove, Susy Echeverria Londono, Shevanthi Nayagam, Neil M. Ferguson, Kévin Jean, Hannah E. Clapham, Kevin van Zandvoort, Timothy B. Hallett, Hope L. Johnson, Margaret J. de Villiers, Zulma M. Cucunubá, Kim Woodruff, Stéphane Verguet, Xi Li, Neff Walker, Marc Brisson, Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), National University of Singapore (NUS), Oxford University Clinical Research Unit [Ho Chi Minh City] (OUCRU), University of Oxford, The University of Hong Kong (HKU), Public Health England [London], Gavi Alliance, University of Southampton, Université Laval [Québec] (ULaval), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health [Baltimore], Johns Hopkins University (JHU), Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation [Lafayette, CO, États-Unis], Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute [Seattle] (KPWHRI), Laboratoire Modélisation, épidémiologie et surveillance des risques sanitaires (MESuRS), Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM), Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), University of Notre Dame [Indiana] (UND), Dublin City University [Dublin] (DCU), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization, and Medical Research Council (MRC)
Summary Background The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. Methods 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. Findings We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52–88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30–48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36–58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52–66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93–150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39–76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25–52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59–81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. Interpretation Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. Funding Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.