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Abstract Background Predicting which children and young people (CYP) are at the highest risk of developing post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) could improve care pathways. We aim to develop and validate prediction models for persistent PCC up to 24 months post-infection in CYP. Methods CYP who were PCR-positive between September 2020 and March 2021, with follow-up data up to 24-months post-infection, were analysed. Persistent PCC was defined in two ways, as PCC at (a) 3, 6, 12 and 24 months post-infection (N = 943) or (b) 6, 12 and 24 months post-infection (N = 2373). Prediction models were developed using logistic regression; performance was assessed using calibration and discrimination measures; internal validation was performed via bootstrapping; the final model was adjusted for overfitting. Results While 24.7% (233/943) of CYP met the PCC definition 3 months post-infection, only 7.2% (68/943) continued to meet the PCC definition at all three subsequent timepoints, i.e. at 6, 12 and 24 months. The final models predicting risk of persistent PCC (at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months and at 6, 12 and 24 months) contained sex (female), history of asthma, allergy problems, learning difficulties at school and family history of ongoing COVID-19 problems, with additional variables (e.g. older age at infection and region of residence) in the model predicting PCC at 6, 12 and 24 months. Internal validation showed minimal overfitting of models with good calibration and discrimination measures (optimism-adjusted calibration slope: 1.064–1.142; C-statistic: 0.724–0.755). Conclusions To our knowledge, these are the only prediction models estimating the risk of CYP persistently meeting the PCC definition up to 24 months post-infection. The models could be used to triage CYP after infection. CYP with factors predicting longer-term symptomology, may benefit from earlier support.

Abstract Our previous study in children and young people (CYP) at 3- and 6-months post-infection showed that 12–16% of those infected with the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of SARS-CoV-2 met the research definition of Long Covid, with no differences between first-positive and reinfected CYP. The primary objective of the current study is to explore the impact of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 infection on young people 12 months post infection. 345 CYP aged 11–17 years with a first laboratory-confirmed infection with the Omicron variant and 360 CYP reinfected with the Omicron variant completed an online questionnaire assessing demographics, symptoms, and their impact shortly after testing and again at 3-, 6-and 12-months post-testing. Vaccination status was determined from information held at UKHSA. Comparisons between groups were made using chi-squared, Mann–Whitney U, and Kruskal–Wallis tests. The most common symptoms in first-positive and reinfected CYP 12-months post-testing were tiredness (35.7 and 33.6% respectively) and sleeping difficulties (27.5 and 28.3% respectively). Symptom profiles, severity and impact were similar in the two infection status groups. Overall, by 12-months, 17.4% of first-positives and 21.9% of reinfected CYP fulfilled the research consensus Long Covid definition (p = 0.13). 12-months post Omicron infection, there is little difference between first-positive and reinfected CYP with respect to symptom profiles and impact. Clinicians may not therefore need to consider number of infections and type of variant when developing treatment plans. Further studies are needed to assess causality of reported symptoms up to 12-months after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BackgroundLittle is known about the long-term mental health consequences of the pandemic in children and young people (CYP), despite extremely high levels of exposure to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus and the disruption to schooling and leisure activities due to the resultant restrictions. There are mixed findings from systematic reviews of how the pandemic affected CYP's mental health, which may be due to heterogeneous methods and poor quality studies. Most, but not all, suggest deterioration in mental health but population level studies may obscure the differing experiences of subgroups. The study questions are: (i) are there subgroups of CYP with distinct mental health profiles over the course of the second year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (between April 2021 and May 2022); and (ii) do vulnerability factors influence CYP's mental health trajectories.Methods and findingsA matched longitudinal cohort study of non-hospitalised test-positive and test-negative 11- to 17-year-old CYP in England were recruited from the UK Health Security Agency having undergone PCR testing for COVID-19. They completed the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) at least twice over a 12-month follow-up period. Overall, 8,518 of 17,918 (47.5%) CYP who returned their first SDQ at 3 or 6 months post-testing were included in the analytical sample. Associations between age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), and an educational health and care plan (EHCP, indicating special educational needs) on SDQ score trajectories were examined separately, after adjusting for PCR test result. Findings from multilevel mixed-effects linear regression model showed that on average mental health symptoms as measured by the total SDQ score increased over time (B = 0.11 (per month), 95% CI = 0.09 to 0.12, p < 0.001) although this increase was small and not clinically significant. However, associations with time varied by age, such that older participants reported greater deterioration in mental health over time (B = 0.12 (per month), 95% CI = 0.10 to 0.14 for 15 to 17y; 0.08 (95% CI = 0.06 to 0.10) for 11 to 14y; pinteraction = 0.002) and by sex, with greater deterioration in girls. Children with an EHCP experienced less deterioration in their mental health compared to those without an EHCP. There was no evidence of differences in rate of change in total SDQ by ethnicity, SES, or physical health. Those with worse prior mental health did not appear to be disproportionately negatively affected over time. There are several limitations of the methodology including relatively low response rates in CLoCk and potential for recall bias.ConclusionsOverall, there was a statistically but not clinically significant decline in mental health during the pandemic. Sex, age, and EHCP status were important vulnerability factors that were associated with the rate of mental health decline, whereas ethnicity, SES, and prior poor physical health were not. The research highlights individual factors that could identify groups of CYP vulnerable to worsening mental health.

Abstract Background To update and internally validate a model to predict children and young people (CYP) most likely to experience long COVID (i.e. at least one impairing symptom) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing and to determine whether the impact of predictors differed by SARS-CoV-2 status. Methods Data from a nationally matched cohort of SARS-CoV-2 test-positive and test-negative CYP aged 11–17 years was used. The main outcome measure, long COVID, was defined as one or more impairing symptoms 3 months after PCR testing. Potential pre-specified predictors included SARS-CoV-2 status, sex, age, ethnicity, deprivation, quality of life/functioning (five EQ-5D-Y items), physical and mental health and loneliness (prior to testing) and number of symptoms at testing. The model was developed using logistic regression; performance was assessed using calibration and discrimination measures; internal validation was performed via bootstrapping and the final model was adjusted for overfitting. Results A total of 7139 (3246 test-positives, 3893 test-negatives) completing a questionnaire 3 months post-test were included. 25.2% (817/3246) of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positives and 18.5% (719/3893) of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-negatives had one or more impairing symptoms 3 months post-test. The final model contained SARS-CoV-2 status, number of symptoms at testing, sex, age, ethnicity, physical and mental health, loneliness and four EQ-5D-Y items before testing. Internal validation showed minimal overfitting with excellent calibration and discrimination measures (optimism-adjusted calibration slope: 0.96575; C-statistic: 0.83130). Conclusions We updated a risk prediction equation to identify those most at risk of long COVID 3 months after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test which could serve as a useful triage and management tool for CYP during the ongoing pandemic. External validation is required before large-scale implementation.

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic children and young people (CYP) were socially restricted during a stage of life crucial to development, potentially putting an already vulnerable population at higher risk of loneliness, social isolation, and poorer wellbeing. The objectives of this study are to conduct an exploratory analysis into loneliness before and during the pandemic, and determine which self-reported factors are associated with loneliness.Methods and findingsParticipants from The Children with Long COVID (CLoCk) national study were invited to take part via an online survey, with a total of 31,017 participants taking part, 31,016 of which reported on their experience of loneliness. Participants retrospectively answered questions on demographics, lifestyle, physical health and mental health and loneliness before the pandemic and at the time of answering the survey. Before the pandemic 6.5% (2,006/31,016) of participants reported experiencing loneliness "Often/Always" and at the time of survey completion 17.4% (5,395/31,016) reported feeling lonelier. There was an association between meeting the research definition of long COVID and loneliness [3.49 OR, 95%CI 3.28-3.72]. CYP who reported feeling lonelier at the time of the survey than before the pandemic were assigned female at birth, older CYP, those from Black/African/Caribbean/Black British or other ethnicity groups, those that had 3-4 siblings and lived in more deprived areas.ConclusionsWe demonstrate associations between multiple factors and experiences of loneliness during the pandemic. There is a need for a multi-faceted integrated approach when developing interventions targeted at loneliness. It is important to follow up the CYP involved at regular intervals to investigate the progression of their experience of loneliness over time.

BackgroundLittle is known about the prevalence and natural trajectory of post-COVID symptoms in young people, despite very high numbers of young people having acute COVID. To date, there has been no prospective follow-up to establish the pattern of symptoms over a 6-month time period.MethodsA non-hospitalised, national sample of 3,395 (1,737 SARS-COV-2 Negative;1,658 SARS-COV-2 Positive at baseline) children and young people (CYP) aged 11-17 completed questionnaires 3 and 6 months after PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between January and March 2021 and were compared with age, sex and geographically-matched test-negative CYP.ResultsThree months after a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test, 11 of the 21 most common symptoms reported by >10% of CYP had reduced. There was a further decline at 6 months. By 3 and 6 months the prevalence of chills, fever, myalgia, cough and sore throat of CYP who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 reduced from 10-25% at testing to ConclusionsIn CYP, the prevalence of specific symptoms reported at time of PCR-testing declined with time. Similar patterns were observed among test-positives and test-negatives and new symptoms were reported six months post-test for both groups suggesting that symptoms are unlikely to exclusively be a specific consequence of SARS-COV-2 infection. Many CYP experienced unwanted symptoms that warrant investigation and potential intervention.