1. Are better existing WASH practices in urban slums associated with a lower long-term risk of severe cholera? A prospective cohort study with 4 years of follow-up in Mirpur, Bangladesh
- Author
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Justin Im, Florian Marks, Xinxue Liu, Ashraful Islam Khan, Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, K Zaman, Firdausi Qadri, John D Clemens, Faisal Ahmmed, Farhana Khanam, GiDeok Pak, Sophie Kang, Fahima Chowdhury, Juyeon Park, Tasnuva Ahmed, Md. Taufiqul Islam, Deok Ryun Kim, Asma Binte Aziz, Masuma Hoque, and Jerome H Kim
- Subjects
Medicine - Abstract
Objective To investigate the association between existing household water quality, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) practices and severe cholera risk in a dense urban slum where cholera is highly endemic.Design, setting and participants We assembled a large prospective cohort within a cluster randomised trial evaluating the effectiveness of oral cholera vaccine. Our dynamic cohort population (n=193 576) comprised individuals living in the ‘non-intervention’ clusters of the trial, and were followed over 4 years. This study was conducted in a dense urban slum community of Dhaka, Bangladesh and cholera surveillance was undertaken in 12 hospitals serving the study area.Primary outcome measure First severe cholera episode detected during follow-up period.Methods We applied a machine learning algorithm on a training subpopulation (n=96 943) to develop a binary (‘better’, ‘not better’) composite WASH variable predictive of severe cholera. The WASH rule was evaluated for performance in a separate validation subpopulation (n=96 633). Afterwards, we used Cox regression models to evaluate the association between ‘better’ WASH households and severe cholera risk over 4 years in the entire study population.Results The ‘better’ WASH rule found that water quality and access were the most significant factors associated with severe cholera risk. Members of ‘better’ WASH households, constituting one-third of the population, had a 47% reduced risk of severe cholera (95% CI: 29 to 69; p
- Published
- 2022
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