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Introduction COVID-19 case fatality rate in hospitalized patients varies across countries and studies. Reliable estimates, specific for age, sex, and comorbidities, are needed to monitor the epidemic, to compare the outcome in different settings, and to correctly design trials for COVID-19 interventions. The aim of this study was to provide population-based survival curves of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Materials and methods A cohort study was conducted in three areas of Northern Italy, heavily affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection (Lombardy and Veneto Regions, and Reggio Emilia province), using a loco-regional COVID-19 surveillance system, linked to hospital discharge databases. We included all patients testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by RT-PCR on nasopharyngeal/throat swab samples who were hospitalized from 21 February to 21 April 2020. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were calculated at 14 and 30 days for death in any setting, stratifying by age, sex, and the Charlson Index. Results Overall, 42,926 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were identified. Patients' median age was 69 years (IQR: 57-79), 62.6% were males, and 6.0% had a Charlson Index ≥3. Survival curves showed that 22.0% (95% CI 21.6-22.4) of patients died within 14 days and 27.6% (95% CI 27.2-28.1) within 30 days from hospitalization. Survival was higher in younger patients and in females. The negative impact of comorbidities on survival was more pronounced in younger age groups. Conclusion The high fatality rate observed in the study (28% at 30 days) suggests that studies should focus on death as primary endpoint during a follow-up of at least one month.

BACKGROUND Besides seasonal influenza viruses (IV), several other pathogens-including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-are involved in clinically undistinguished influenza-like illnesses (ILIs). This study aimed at investigating the contribution of RSV in ILI cases in Lombardy (Northern Italy) during four consecutive winter seasons. MATERIALS AND METHODS In the framework of influenza surveillance, respiratory samples from ILI outpatients were collected from 2014-2015 to 2017-2018 season. IV-negative swabs were included in the study and analyzed to detect and molecularly characterize RSV-A and RSV-B. RESULTS A total of 12.9% (135/1047) of samples were positive to RSV that was mostly detected among children ≤5 years (51/183, 27.8%) and those aged 6 to 15 years (30/158, 18.9%), whereas elderly >65 years accounted for 12% of RSV cases (15/125). The median start of RSV epidemic was in the end of November, with a peak in mid-February and a width of nearly 4 months, almost overlapping seasonal influenza epidemic. RSV-A and RSV-B co-circulated in all considered seasons, with RSV-B predominating on RSV-A (63.6% vs 36.4%; P

BackgroundUnderstanding the risk factors associated with hospital burden of COVID-19 is crucial for healthcare planning for any future waves of infection.MethodsAn observational cohort study is performed, using data on all PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Regione Lombardia, Italy, during the first wave of infection from February-June 2020. A multi-state modelling approach is used to simultaneously estimate risks of progression through hospital to final outcomes of either death or discharge, by pathway (via critical care or not) and the times to final events (lengths of stay). Logistic and time-to-event regressions are used to quantify the association of patient and population characteristics with the risks of hospital outcomes and lengths of stay respectively.ResultsRisks of severe outcomes such as ICU admission and mortality have decreased with month of admission (for example, the odds ratio of ICU admission in June vs March is 0.247 [0.120–0.508]) and increased with age (odds ratio of ICU admission in 45–65 vs 65 + age group is 0.286 [0.201–0.406]). Care home residents aged 65 + are associated with increased risk of hospital mortality and decreased risk of ICU admission. Being a healthcare worker appears to have a protective association with mortality risk (odds ratio of ICU mortality is 0.254 [0.143–0.453] relative to non-healthcare workers) and length of stay. Lengths of stay decrease with month of admission for survivors, but do not appear to vary with month for non-survivors.ConclusionsImprovements in clinical knowledge, treatment, patient and hospital management and public health surveillance, together with the waning of the first wave after the first lockdown, are hypothesised to have contributed to the reduced risks and lengths of stay over time.

During the spring of 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic caused an unprecedented demand for intensive-care resources in the Lombardy region of Italy. Using data on 43,538 hospitalized patients admitted between February 21 and July 12, 2020, we evaluated variations in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and mortality over the course of 3 periods: the early phase of the pandemic (February 21–March 13), the period of highest pressure on the health-care system (March 14–April 25, when numbers of COVID-19 patients exceeded prepandemic ICU bed capacity), and the declining phase (April 26–July 12). Compared with the early phase, patients aged 70 years or more were less often admitted to an ICU during the period of highest pressure on the health-care system (odds ratio (OR) = 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.41, 0.54), with longer ICU delays (incidence rate ratio = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.52, 2.18) and lower chances of dying in the ICU (OR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.34, 0.64). Patients under 56 years of age had more limited changes in the probability of (OR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.76) and delay to (incidence rate ratio = 1.16, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.42) ICU admission and increased mortality (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.00, 2.07). In the declining phase, all quantities decreased for all age groups. These patterns may suggest that limited health-care resources during the peak phase of the epidemic in Lombardy forced a shift in ICU admission criteria to prioritize patients with higher chances of survival.

Background The aim of this study is to quantify the hospital burden of COVID-19 during the first wave and how it changed over calendar time; to interpret the results in light of the emergency measures introduced to manage the strain on secondary healthcare. Methods This is a cohort study of hospitalised confirmed cases of COVID-19 admitted from February–June 2020 and followed up till 17th July 2020, analysed using a mixture multi-state model. All hospital patients with confirmed COVID-19 disease in Regione Lombardia were involved, admitted from February–June 2020, with non-missing hospital of admission and non-missing admission date. Results The cohort consists of 40,550 patients hospitalised during the first wave. These patients had a median age of 69 (interquartile range 56–80) and were more likely to be men (60%) than women (40%). The hospital-fatality risk, averaged over all pathways through hospital, was 27.5% (95% CI 27.1–28.0%); and steadily decreased from 34.6% (32.5–36.6%) in February to 7.6% (6.3–10.6%) in June. Among surviving patients, median length of stay in hospital was 11.8 (11.6–12.3) days, compared to 8.1 (7.8–8.5) days in non-survivors. Averaged over final outcomes, median length of stay in hospital decreased from 21.4 (20.5–22.8) days in February to 5.2 (4.7–5.8) days in June. Conclusions The hospital burden, in terms of both risks of poor outcomes and lengths of stay in hospital, has been demonstrated to have decreased over the months of the first wave, perhaps reflecting improved treatment and management of COVID-19 cases, as well as reduced burden as the first wave waned. The quantified burden allows for planning of hospital beds needed for current and future waves of SARS-CoV-2 i.

Updated incidence data of acute Delta virus hepatitis (HDV) are lacking worldwide. Our aim was to evaluate incidence of and risk factors for acute HDV in Italy after the introduction of the compulsory vaccination against hepatitis B virus (HBV) in 1991. Data were obtained from the National Surveillance System of acute viral hepatitis (SEIEVA). Independent predictors of HDV were assessed by logistic-regression analysis. The incidence of acute HDV per 1-million population declined from 3.2 cases in 1987 to 0.04 in 2019, parallel to that of acute HBV per 100,000 from 10.0 to 0.39 cases during the same period. The median age of cases increased from 27 years in the decade 1991-1999 to 44 years in the decade 2010-2019 (p

In September 2018 in Brescia province, northern Italy, an outbreak of Legionnaires' disease (LD) caused by Legionella pneumophila serogroup 2 (Lp2) occurred. The 33 cases (two fatal) resided in seven municipalities along the Chiese river. All cases were negative by urinary antigen test (UAT) and most were diagnosed by real-time PCR and serology. In only three cases, respiratory sample cultures were positive, and Lp2 was identified and typed as sequence type (ST)1455. In another three cases, nested sequence-based typing was directly applied to respiratory samples, which provided allelic profiles highly similar to ST1455. An environmental investigation was undertaken immediately and water samples were collected from private homes, municipal water systems, cooling towers and the river. Overall, 533 environmental water samples were analysed and 34 were positive for Lp. Of these, only three samples, all collected from the Chiese river, were Lp2 ST1455. If and how the river water could have been aerosolised causing the LD cases remains unexplained. This outbreak, the first to our knowledge caused by Lp2, highlights the limits of UAT for LD diagnosis, underlining the importance of adopting multiple tests to ensure that serogroups other than serogroup 1, as well as other Legionella species, are identified.

Key Points Question What is the association of age with the likelihood of developing respiratory symptoms or fever greater than or equal to 37.5 °C and the association of age with the likelihood of progressing to critical disease after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection? Findings In this cohort study, 5484 quarantined case contacts were monitored daily for symptoms for at least 2 weeks and were tested for infection via real-time reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction or serological screening more than 1 month after identification. Only 26.1% of infected individuals younger than 60 years developed respiratory symptoms or fever greater than or equal to 37.5 °C, but 6.6% of infected participants aged 60 years or older developed critical disease. Meaning The low proportion of children and young adults who developed symptoms highlights the possible challenges in readily identifying SARS-CoV-2 infections., This cohort study examines the association of age with the likelihood of experiencing symptoms and progressing to critical illness after infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Italy., Importance Solid estimates of the risk of developing symptoms and of progressing to critical disease in individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are key to interpreting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) dynamics, identifying the settings and the segments of the population where transmission is more likely to remain undetected, and defining effective control strategies. Objective To estimate the association of age with the likelihood of developing symptoms and the association of age with the likelihood of progressing to critical illness after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study analyzed quarantined case contacts, identified between February 20 and April 16, 2020, in the Lombardy region of Italy. Contacts were monitored daily for symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, by either real-time reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction using nasopharyngeal swabs or retrospectively via IgG serological assays. Close contacts of individuals with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were selected as those belonging to clusters (ie, groups of contacts associated with an index case) where all individuals were followed up for symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data were analyzed from February to June 2020. Exposure Close contact with individuals with confirmed COVID-19 cases as identified by contact tracing operations. Main Outcomes and Measures Age-specific estimates of the risk of developing respiratory symptoms or fever greater than or equal to 37.5 °C and of experiencing critical disease (defined as requiring intensive care or resulting in death) in SARS-CoV-2–infected case contacts. Results In total, 5484 case contacts (median [interquartile range] age, 50 [30-61] years; 3086 female contacts [56.3%]) were analyzed, 2824 of whom (51.5%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median [interquartile range] age, 53 [34-64] years; 1604 female contacts [56.8%]). The proportion of infected persons who developed symptoms ranged from 18.1% (95% CI, 13.9%-22.9%) among participants younger than 20 years to 64.6% (95% CI, 56.6%-72.0%) for those aged 80 years or older. Most infected contacts (1948 of 2824 individuals [69.0%]) did not develop respiratory symptoms or fever greater than or equal to 37.5 °C. Only 26.1% (95% CI, 24.1%-28.2%) of infected individuals younger than 60 years developed respiratory symptoms or fever greater than or equal to 37.5 °C; among infected participants older than 60 years, 6.6% (95% CI, 5.1%-8.3%) developed critical disease. Female patients were 52.7% (95% CI, 24.4%-70.7%) less likely than male patients to develop critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Conclusions and Relevance In this Italian cohort study of close contacts of patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, more than one-half of individuals tested positive for the virus. However, most infected individuals did not develop respiratory symptoms or fever. The low proportion of children and young adults who developed symptoms highlights the possible challenges in readily identifying SARS-CoV-2 infections.

* Abbreviation: COVID-19 — : coronavirus disease 2019 In Italy, 15.8% of the residents are children

Background In the night of February 20, 2020, the first epidemic of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outside Asia was uncovered by the identification of its first patient in Lombardy region, Italy. In the following weeks, Lombardy experienced a sudden increase in the number of ascertained infections and strict measures were imposed to contain the epidemic spread. Methods We analyzed official records of cases occurred in Lombardy to characterize the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the early phase of the outbreak. A line list of laboratory-confirmed cases was set up and later retrospectively consolidated, using standardized interviews to ascertained cases and their close contacts. We provide estimates of the serial interval, of the basic reproduction number, and of the temporal variation of the net reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2. Results Epidemiological investigations detected over 500 cases (median age: 69, IQR: 57–78) before the first COVID-19 diagnosed patient (February 20, 2020), and suggested that SARS-CoV-2 was already circulating in at least 222 out of 1506 (14.7%) municipalities with sustained transmission across all the Lombardy provinces. We estimated the mean serial interval to be 6.6 days (95% CrI, 0.7–19). Our estimates of the basic reproduction number range from 2.6 in Pavia (95% CI, 2.1–3.2) to 3.3 in Milan (95% CI, 2.9–3.8). A decreasing trend in the net reproduction number was observed following the detection of the first case. Conclusions At the time of first case notification, COVID-19 was already widespread in the entire Lombardy region. This may explain the large number of critical cases experienced by this region in a very short timeframe. The slight decrease of the reproduction number observed in the early days after February 20, 2020 might be due to increased population awareness and early interventions implemented before the regional lockdown imposed on March 8, 2020.

Objective: Women treated for Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or 3 are at increased risk of CIN and cervical cancer. Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is effective in preventing CIN in women who are not infected by HPV. Some studies suggested that vaccination may reduce the risk of CIN2 or 3 in women treated for CIN. A working group including all Italian scientific societies involved in tackling cervical cancer developed a recommendation on vaccination against HPV for women treated for CIN2 or CIN3. Data sources, methodsofstudyselection: The group conducted a systematic review of the literature published from January 2006 to May 2019. Evidence on safety outcomes was retrieved by a recent Cochrane Review on vaccination in the general population. To develop the final recommendation, evidences were appraised and integrated by a Panel of Experts using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) Evidence to Decision framework. Tabulation, integrationandresults: Six eligible studies were included. Four were RCTs and two were cohort studies, with different timing of vaccination. An additional study, published in October 2019, was taken into consideration after external review. A reduction of 70% CIN2+ in the treatment group was estimated; the vaccine was considered safe. Conclusion: The working group recommends the use of HPV vaccination in women treated for CIN2 or 3. The strong recommendation is based on large estimated desirable effects and trivial anticipated undesirable effects (moderate certainty of evidence), negligible costs and savings (no studies included), and a positive judgment in terms of feasibility, acceptability, and impact on equity.

Background: Understanding the risk factors associated with hospital burden of COVID-19 is crucial for healthcare planning for any future waves of infection. Methods: An observational cohort study is performed, using data on all RT-PCR confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Regione Lombardia, Italy, during the first wave of infection from February-June 2020. A multi-state modelling approach is used to simultaneously estimate risks of progression through hospital to final outcomes of either death or discharge, by pathway (via critical care or not) and the times to final events (lengths of stay). Logistic and time-to-event regressions are used to quantify the association of patient and population characteristics with the risks of hospital outcomes and lengths of stay respectively. Findings: Risks of severe outcomes such as ICU admission and mortality have decreased with month of admission and increased with age. Care home residents aged 65+ are at increased risk of hospital mortality and decreased risk of ICU admission. Being a healthcare worker appears to have a protective effect on mortality risk and length of stay. Lengths of stay decrease with month of admission for survivors, but do not appear to vary with month for non-survivors. Interpretation: Improvements in clinical knowledge, treatment, patient and hospital management and public health surveillance, together with the waning of the first wave after the first lockdown, are hypothesised to have contributed to the reduced risks and lengths of stay over time. Funding: This work has been funded by the Medical Research Council (De Angelis, Jackson, Presanis: Unit programme number MC UU 00002/11; Kunzmann: Unit programme number MC_UU_00002/10); and the UKRI-MRC COVID-19 Rapid Call (Presanis, De Angelis, grant no MC_PC_19074). Declaration of Interests: None to declare.

BackgroundDuring the spring of 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has caused significant resource strain in hospitals of Lombardy, Italy, with the demand for intensive care beds for COVID-19 patients exceeding the overall pre-crisis capacity. In this study, we evaluate the effect of healthcare strain on ICU admission and survival.MethodsWe used data on 43,538 patients admitted to a hospital in the region between February 20 and July 12, 2020, of which 3,993 (9.2%) were admitted to an ICU. We applied logistic regression to model the probability of being admitted to an ICU and the probability of survival among ICU patients. Negative binomial regressions were used to model the time between hospital and ICU admission and the length of stay in ICU.ResultsDuring the period of highest hospital strain (March 16 – April 22), individuals older than 70 years had a significantly lower probability of being admitted to an ICU and significantly longer times between hospital and ICU admission, indicating elective admission due to constrained resources. Healthcare strain did not have a clear effect on mortality, with the overall proportion of deaths declining from 52.1% (95%CI 49.8-54.5) for ICU patients admitted to the hospital before March 16, to 43.4% (95%CI 41.5-45.6) between March 16 and April 22, to 27.6% (95%CI 20.0-35.2) after April 22.ConclusionsThese data demonstrate and quantify the adoption of elective admission to ICUs during the peak phase of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Lombardy. However, we show that for patients admitted to ICUs, clinical outcomes progressively improved despite the saturation of healthcare resources.

The clinical presentation of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 not only includes viral pneumonia, but also milder illness overlapping with influenza-like illness (ILI), allowing a potential tracking of the infection in the framework of the national influenza surveillance system (SS). By comparing the data recorded by the influenza SS in 2019-20 season to those collected for the previous years, we want to evaluate whether the implementation of ILI SS could succeed in early detection and monitoring of Covid-19 diffusion. We analyzed the data recorded by the influenza SS and we compared the distribution of ILI incidence rate by week for 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 season in order to understand whether the SS detected any abnormality coinciding with Covid-19 outbreak. The distribution of ILI cases in the three seasons presented a similar pattern up to the 9th week; after then, a reduction in the ILI incidence rate was observed in the 2017-18 and the 2018-19 season while an increase was detected for 2019-20. During 2019-20 season, three major characteristics stand out: i) at the beginning of Covid-19 epidemic (7th-9th week) 9,17/1000 cases were reported; ii) during the recognition of the COVID-19 outbreak (9th-10th week) 6,36/1000 cases; iii) during the spread of Covid-19 (10th-11th week) an unexpected increase to 7,72/1000 cases. Additionally, their geographical distribution was concentrated in the areas known to be most affected by the epidemic. The influenza SS enabled us to detect the introduction and distribution of COVID-19. Implementation of the system should be prioritized in order to early identify new waves of Covid-19 but also any future novel respiratory pathogen. In order to empower the SS, it would be advisable to increase the population coverage about 2% which is the actual standard. Key messages The influenza surveillance system detected the first wave of Covid-19 in Lombardy Region, Italy. The influenza surveillance system should be implemented in order to bring a benefit both to the current situation and in sight of future public health challenges.

Issue COVID-19 pandemic began in Italy on February 20th, 2020. Since the beginning of the emergency Healthcare Workers' (HCWs) involvement was prominent, mainly due to direct assistance to COVID-19 patients. Therefore, we implemented a prevention policy for HCW screening through serological and RT-PCR testing. Description of the problem HCW screening for SARS-CoV-2 infection is essential for prevention and control of the pandemic. Lombardy's Healthcare authorities settled a screening process for HCWs divided into three steps: 1) body temperature assessment at the beginning and the end of work shift, if fever > 37.5 °C was present the HCW was sent back home and a nasopharyngeal swab was performed; 2) progressive recruitment for serological testing; 3) on those positive to IgG a nasopharyngeal swab was performed and tested for viral RNA by RT-PCR. Results Among 79185 HCW tested, 9589 (12%) were positive on serological IgG testing. Of the 9589 positive a nasopharyngeal swab was performed on 6884. Of these 358 (5%) tested positive and the remaining 6526 (95%) negative to RT-PCR. We calculated a Positive Predictive Value of 5.2%. The rate of positive serological tests for each Healthcare facility varied between 0% and 78%. Five percent of all facilities, belonging to Brescia, Bergamo and Cremona area, reported a positivity rate higher than 40% in HCWs. A second cluster (18% of all facilities), involving the same geographical area, reported a rate between 20% and 40%, whereas the remaining facilities (76%) of the region a rate Lessons Serological IgG testing can be, if followed by immediate nasopharyngeal swab testing, a valid screening intervention on asymptomatic HCWs especially in a high infection prevalence setting. Key messages Serological IgG testing can be, if followed by immediate nasopharyngeal swab testing, a valid screening intervention on asymptomatic HCWs. Infection prevention in HCW may benefit from a screening campaign especially in high prevalence settings.

We analysed 5,484 close contacts of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Italy, all tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Infection fatality ratio was 0.43% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.21–0.79) for individuals younger than 70 years and 10.5% (95% CI: 8.0–13.6) for older individuals. Risk of death after infection was 62% lower (95% CI: 31–80) in clusters identified after 16 March 2020 and 1.8-fold higher for males (95% CI: 1.03–3.16).

In July 2018, a large outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease (LD) caused by Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 (Lp1) occurred in Bresso, Italy. Fifty-two cases were diagnosed, including five deaths. We performed an epidemiological investigation and prepared a map of the places cases visited during the incubation period. All sites identified as potential sources were investigated and sampled. Association between heavy rainfall and LD cases was evaluated in a case-crossover study. We also performed a case–control study and an aerosol dispersion investigation model. Lp1 was isolated from 22 of 598 analysed water samples; four clinical isolates were typed using monoclonal antibodies and sequence-based typing. Four Lp1 human strains were ST23, of which two were Philadelphia and two were France-Allentown subgroup. Lp1 ST23 France-Allentown was isolated only from a public fountain. In the case-crossover study, extreme precipitation 5–6 days before symptom onset was associated with increased LD risk. The aerosol dispersion model showed that the fountain matched the case distribution best. The case–control study demonstrated a significant eightfold increase in risk for cases residing near the public fountain. The three studies and the matching of clinical and environmental Lp1 strains identified the fountain as the source responsible for the epidemic.

BackgroundCOVID-19 case fatality rate in hospitalized patients varies across countries and studies, but reliable estimates specific for age, sex, and comorbidities are needed to design trials for COVID-19 interventions. Aim of this study is to provide population-based survival curves of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.MethodsA cohort study was conducted in Lombardy, Veneto, and Reggio Emilia using COVID-19 registries linked to hospital discharge databases containing patient clinical histories. All patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test on oral/nasopharyngeal swabs hospitalized from 21st February to 21st April 2020 were identified. Kaplan Meier survival estimates were calculated at 14 and 30 days for death in any setting, stratifying by age, sex and Charlson Index.FindingsOverall, 42,926 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were identified. Patients’ median age was 69 years (IQR: 57-79), 62·6% were males, 69·4% had a Charlson Index of 0. In total, 11,205 (26·1%) patients died over a median follow-up of 24 days (IQR: 10-35). Survival curves showed that 22·0% of patients died within 14 days and 27·6% within 30 days of hospitalization. Survival was higher in younger patients and in females. Younger patients with comorbidities had a lower survival than older ones with comorbidities.InterpretationOver 27% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients died within one month in three areas of Northern Italy that were heavily affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Such a high fatality rate suggests that trials should focus on survival and have follow-up of at least one month.FundingThe study did not receive any external funding.Research in contextEvidence before this studyTwo recent systematic reviews with meta-analyses report case fatality rates of three to four percent in COVID-19 patients. Most studies on hospitalized cohorts report only slightly higher figures. These figures do not correspond to those derived from routinely collected clinical data in most European countries, reporting a 10% case fatality rate which has been increasing over time since the epidemic started.Robust and precise survival estimates of hospitalized COVID-19 patients which take into account prognostic factors such as age, sex and burden of comorbidities are needed to design appropriate phase II and phase III clinical studies of drugs targeting COVID-19.Added value of this studyIn this study we present the first survival estimates by age, sex and Charlson index for a large population-based cohort of Italian hospitalized COVID-19 patients.Implications of all the available evidenceOver 27% of COVID-19 patients died within one month from hospital admission. Such a high fatality rate suggests that studies should prioritize mortality as primary outcome. Furthermore, we found that the fatality rate reaches a plateau 30 days after hospitalization, suggesting that studies should have at least one month of follow up to observe deaths; shorter follow-up could lead to overestimation of treatment benefits.

With several human cases reported annually since 2008 and the unapparent risk of infection of blood donors, the West Nile virus (WNV) is emerging as an important health issue in Europe. Italy, as well as other European countries, experienced a recrudescence of the virus circulation in 2018, which led to an increased number of human cases. An integrated surveillance plan was activated in the Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy regions (Northern Italy) since 2008 in order to monitor the intensity and timing of WNV circulation. A fundamental part of this plan consists in entomological surveillance. In 2018, the surveillance plan made it possible to collect 385,293 mosquitoes in 163 stations in the two Regions. In total 269,147 Culex mosquitoes were grouped into 2,337 pools and tested for WNV, which was detected in 232 pools. Circulation started in the central part of the Emilia-Romagna region in the middle of June, about one month before the previous seasons. Circulation suddenly expanded to the rest of the region and reached the Lombardy region in the middle of July. WNV circulated more intensively in the eastern part of the surveyed area, as confirmed by the highest number of human cases. A relationship between the number of mosquitoes collected and the virus incidence emerged, but the data obtained highlighted that the probability of detecting the virus in a given site was less than expected with a higher number of collected mosquitoes. A significant relationship was observed between the temperature recorded one week before the sampling and the number of collected mosquitoes, as well as between the estimated number of WNV-positive mosquitoes and the temperature recorded two weeks before the sampling. The two weeks delay in the influence of temperature on the positive mosquitoes is in line with the time of the virus extrinsic incubation in the mosquito. This finding confirms that temperature is one of the principal drivers in WNV mosquito infection. The surveillance system demonstrated the ability to detect the virus circulation early, particularly in areas where circulation was more intense. This allowed evaluating the effect of mosquito abundance and weather factors on virus circulation.

Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.

Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases. In this work, we quantify age-specific probabilities of transitions between stages defining the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 infection from 1,965 SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals identified in Italy between March and April 2020 among contacts of confirmed cases. Infected contacts of cases were confirmed via RT-PCR tests as part of contact tracing activities or retrospectively via IgG serological tests and followed-up for symptoms and clinical outcomes. In addition, we provide estimates of time intervals between key events defining the clinical progression of cases as obtained from a larger sample, consisting of 95,371 infections ascertained between February and July 2020. We found that being older than 60 years of age was associated with a 39.9% (95%CI: 36.2-43.6%) likelihood of developing respiratory symptoms or fever ≥37.5 °C after SARS-CoV-2 infection; the 22.3% (95%CI: 19.3-25.6%) of the infections in this age group required hospital care and the 1% (95%CI: 0.4-2.1%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). The corresponding proportions in individuals younger than 60 years were estimated at 27.9% (95%CI: 25.4-30.4%), 8.8% (95%CI: 7.3-10.5%) and 0.4% (95%CI: 0.1-0.9%), respectively. The infection fatality ratio (IFR) ranged from 0.2% (95%CI: 0.0-0.6%) in individuals younger than 60 years to 12.3% (95%CI: 6.9-19.7%) for those aged 80 years or more; the case fatality ratio (CFR) in these two age classes was 0.6% (95%CI: 0.1-2%) and 19.2% (95%CI: 10.9-30.1%), respectively. The median length of stay in hospital was 10 (IQR: 3-21) days; the length of stay in ICU was 11 (IQR: 6-19) days. The obtained estimates provide insights into the epidemiology of COVID-19 and could be instrumental to refine mathematical modeling work supporting public health decisions.

This cross-sectional study investigates seroprevalence and odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection among health care workers in different professional categories and operational units in Italy., Key Points Question What are the seroprevalence and the relative odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection among health care workers (HCWs) employed in different professional categories and operational units? Findings In this cross-sectional study of 82 961 serological tests of Italian HCWs, 12.2% of participants were positive for IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Higher odds of infection were found among nurses, health assistants, and workers enrolled in emergency departments or in treatment of patients with subacute disease. Meaning These findings suggest that equipment and training of personnel less accustomed to managing infectious disease but directly exposed to patients who may be infected with SARS-CoV-2 should be prioritized to decrease infection risks in health care settings., Importance Identifying health care settings and professionals at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial to defining appropriate strategies, resource allocation, and protocols to protect health care workers (HCWs) and patients. Moreover, such information is crucial to decrease the risk that HCWs and health care facilities become amplifiers for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community. Objective To assess the association of different health care professional categories and operational units, including in-hospital wards, outpatient facilities, and territorial care departments, with seroprevalence and odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional study was conducted using IgG serological tests collected from April 1 through May 26, 2020, in the Lombardy region in Italy. Voluntary serological screening was offered to all clinical and nonclinical staff providing any health care services or support to health care services in the region. Data were analyzed from June 2020 through April 2021. Exposures Employment in the health care sector. Main Outcomes and Measures Seroprevalence of positive IgG antibody tests for SARS-CoV-2 was collected, and odds ratios of experiencing infection were calculated. Results A total of 140 782 professionals employed in the health sector were invited to participate in IgG serological screening, among whom 82 961 individuals (59.0% response rate) were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, with median (interquartile range [IQR]; range) age, 50 (40-56; 19-83) years and 59 839 (72.1%) women. Among these individuals, 10 115 HCWs (12.2%; 95% CI, 12.0%-12.4%) had positive results (median [IQR; range] age, 50 [39-55; 20-80] years; 7298 [72.2%] women). Statistically significantly higher odds of infection were found among health assistants (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.48; 95% CI, 1.33-1.65) and nurses (aOR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.17-1.41) compared with administrative staff and among workers employed in internal medicine (aOR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.87-2.68), palliative care (aOR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.38-2.44), rehabilitation (aOR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.33-1.91), and emergency departments (aOR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.29-1.89) compared with those working as telephone operators. Statistically significantly lower odds of infection were found among individuals working in forensic medicine (aOR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.19-0.88), histology and anatomical pathology (aOR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.52-0.97), and medical device sterilization (aOR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.35-0.84) compared with those working as telephone operators. The odds of infection for physicians and laboratory personnel were not statistically significantly different from those found among administrative staff. The odds of infection for workers employed in intensive care units and infectious disease wards were not statistically significantly different from those of telephone operators. Conclusions and Relevance These findings suggest that professionals partially accustomed to managing infectious diseases had higher odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The findings further suggest that adequate organization of clinical wards and personnel, appropriate personal protective equipment supply, and training of all workers directly and repeatedly exposed to patients with clinical or subclinical COVID-19 should be prioritized to decrease the risk of infection in health care settings.

This study aimed at assessing the frequency and the distribution of influenza virus types/subtypes in 172 laboratory-confirmed influenza-positive patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) during the 2017&ndash, 2018 season in the Lombardy region (Northern Italy), and to investigate the presence of molecular pathogenicity markers. A total of 102/172 (59.3%) patients had influenza A infections (83 A/H1N1pdm09, 2 H3N2 and 17 were untyped), while the remaining 70/172 (40.7%) patients had influenza B infections. The 222G/N mutation in the hemagglutinin gene was identified in 33.3% (3/9) of A/H1N1pdm09 strains detected in the lower respiratory tract (LRT) samples and was also associated with more severe infections, whereas no peculiar mutations were observed for influenza B strains. A single-point evolution was observed in site 222 of A/H1N1pdm09 viruses, which might advantage viral evolution by favouring virus binding and replication in the lungs. Data from 17 paired upper respiratory tract (URT) and LRT samples showed that viral load in LRT samples was mostly higher than that detected in URT samples. Of note, influenza viruses were undetectable in 35% of paired URT samples. In conclusion, LRT samples appear to provide more accurate clinical information than URT samples, thus ensuring correct diagnosis and appropriate treatment of patients with severe respiratory infections requiring ICU admission.

Objective: Cervical cancer prevention shows a variability across Italian Regions unjustified by available evidence, increasing the health, economic and organizational burden. Evidence-based recommendations on topics not covered by international guidelines are needed to tackle existing inequalities. This article describes the rationale, methods, and process for development of the Multisociety Italian Guidelines for cervical cancer prevention. Methods: The Italian legislative framework requires guidelines to be consistent with methodological standards set by the National System for Guidelines (SNLG) of the National Institute of Health. Results: The nine scientific societies involved in cervical cancer prevention participated to the project, including clinicians, policy makers, methodologists, and researchers. Patients were involved as full voting panel members. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach was adopted to assess the certainty of evidence collected by systematic reviews. The GRADE Evidenceto- Decision framework (EtD) was used to structure the appraisal of evidence and to formulate final recommendations. The EtD and a conflict-of-interests management policy were adopted to minimize the influence of competing interests. Discussion: Full transparency guided the reporting of each step of the process, to support the implementation of recommendations in each context and the future updating process. Considerations for subgroups, monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of recommendations and research priorities were also provided. A two-step review process by external experts and SNLG reviewers, prior to online publication, ensured the methodological robustness underlying final recommendations. Finally, to increase publication timeliness, guidelines are organised in chapters that group sets of related recommendations to be published independently.

Background Colorectal cancer screening may reduce disease-related mortality by early-stage detection of cancers. Aims To study the effect of a single immunochemical faecal occult blood test (i-FOBt) screening round on reduction in colorectal cancer-related-mortality among average risk subjects. Methods Comparison of 5-year mortality rates in 3 cohorts from a Northern Italian province: (1) colorectal cancers detected at the 1st biennial round of a mass-screening programme targeting 50–69 years old subjects, (2) non-screening cancers symptomatically diagnosed during the same time period, and (3) cancers detected in the pre-screening biennium. Multivariate analyses were performed with the Cox regression model including tumour node metastasis (TNM) stage at diagnosis, anatomical distribution of cancers, age at diagnosis, gender and patient group. Kaplan–Meyer survival estimates and log-rank test for equality of survivor functions were calculated. Results Stage distribution significantly differed between screening and non-screening colorectal cancers: 73% of screen-detected colorectal cancers were stages I and II versus 43% and 40% of non-screening and pre-screening colorectal cancers. Cumulative 5-year mortality rate was significantly lower in screening compared to non-screening or pre-screening colorectal cancers patients (19% versus 37% and 41%, p Conclusions Colorectal cancers were detected at earlier stages in i-FOBT-positive subjects in comparison with non-screening patients; colorectal cancers found at screening had a significantly improved 5-year survival.

A large measles outbreak has been ongoing in Milan and surrounding areas. From 1 March to 30 June 2017, 203 measles cases were laboratory-confirmed (108 sporadic cases and 95 related to 47 clusters). Phylogenetic analysis revealed the co-circulation of two different genotypes, D8 and B3. Both genotypes caused nosocomial clusters in two hospitals. The rapid analysis of epidemiological and phylogenetic data allowed effective surveillance and tracking of transmission pathways.

Background The use of e-learning, defined as any educational intervention mediated electronically via the Internet, has steadily increased among health professionals worldwide. Several studies have attempted to measure the effects of e-learning in medical practice, which has often been associated with large positive effects when compared to no intervention and with small positive effects when compared with traditional learning (without access to e-learning). However, results are not conclusive. Objectives To assess the effects of e-learning programmes versus traditional learning in licensed health professionals for improving patient outcomes or health professionals' behaviours, skills and knowledge. Search methods We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, five other databases and three trial registers up to July 2016, without any restrictions based on language or status of publication. We examined the reference lists of the included studies and other relevant reviews. If necessary, we contacted the study authors to collect additional information on studies. Selection criteria Randomised trials assessing the effectiveness of e-learning versus traditional learning for health professionals. We excluded non-randomised trials and trials involving undergraduate health professionals. Data collection and analysis Two authors independently selected studies, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We graded the certainty of evidence for each outcome using the GRADE approach and standardised the outcome effects using relative risks (risk ratio (RR) or odds ratio (OR)) or standardised mean difference (SMD) when possible. Main results We included 16 randomised trials involving 5679 licensed health professionals (4759 mixed health professionals, 587 nurses, 300 doctors and 33 childcare health consultants).When compared with traditional learning at 12-month follow-up, low-certainty evidence suggests that e-learning may make little or no difference for the following patient outcomes: the proportion of patients with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol of less than 100 mg/dL (adjusted difference 4.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.3 to 7.9, N = 6399 patients, 1 study) and the proportion with glycated haemoglobin level of less than 8% (adjusted difference 4.6%, 95% CI -1.5 to 9.8, 3114 patients, 1 study). At 3- to 12-month follow-up, low-certainty evidence indicates that e-learning may make little or no difference on the following behaviours in health professionals: screening for dyslipidaemia (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.06, 6027 patients, 2 studies) and treatment for dyslipidaemia (OR 1.15, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.48, 5491 patients, 2 studies). It is uncertain whether e-learning improves or reduces health professionals' skills (2912 health professionals; 6 studies; very low-certainty evidence), and it may make little or no difference in health professionals' knowledge (3236 participants; 11 studies; low-certainty evidence).Due to the paucity of studies and data, we were unable to explore differences in effects across different subgroups. Owing to poor reporting, we were unable to collect sufficient information to complete a meaningful 'Risk of bias' assessment for most of the quality criteria. We evaluated the risk of bias as unclear for most studies, but we classified the largest trial as being at low risk of bias. Missing data represented a potential source of bias in several studies. Authors' conclusions When compared to traditional learning, e-learning may make little or no difference in patient outcomes or health professionals' behaviours, skills or knowledge. Even if e-learning could be more successful than traditional learning in particular medical education settings, general claims of it as inherently more effective than traditional learning may be misleading.

We evaluated SARS-CoV-2 RNA and neutralising antibodies in blood donors (BD) residing in the Lodi Red Zone, Italy. Of 390 BDs recruited after 20 February 2020 − when the first COVID-19 case in Lombardy was identified, 91 (23%) aged 19–70 years were antibody positive. Viral RNA was detected in an additional 17 (4.3%) BDs, yielding ca 28% (108/390) with evidence of virus exposure. Five stored samples collected as early as 12 February were seropositive.