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Ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are commonly used in end-stage heart failure for mechanical circulatory support as a bridge to heart transplantation. However, LVADs' long-term effects on posttransplant survival are unknown. We sought to compare long-term mortality after transplantation for patients with and without LVADs. Using the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database, we investigated LVADs' impact on long-term (3 month, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years, and 8 years) posttransplant mortality risk for all heart transplant recipients between 2010 and 2019. Time-to-event regression analysis quantified mortality risk by LVAD status in both unconditional and conditional survival analyses. Of 20,113 transplant recipients, 8,999 (45%) had a LVAD while on the waitlist. Among those who died after transplantation, patients with LVADs on average died sooner (1.8 years) than patients without LVADs (3.0 years; p < 0.01). On multivariable analysis, patients with LVADs had a 44% higher mortality risk within the first 3 months posttransplant (HR = 1.44, p = 0.03). There was no significant difference in mortality risk between patients who did and did not have pretransplant LVADs after 1, 2, and 5 years of posttransplant conditional survival. While LVAD patients have a survival disadvantage in the first year posttransplant, conditional survival analysis demonstrated no difference in mortality risk between patients with and without LVADs beyond 1 year of follow up. Of the patients who died posttransplant, patients with LVADs on average died sooner than patients without LVADs.

Introduction Cytoreductive surgery is one of the recommended treatments for metastatic renal cell carcinoma, while the prognostic information of these patients treated with cytoreductive surgery is limited. In this study, we aimed to investigate the survival profiles based on conditional survival (CS) estimates in metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (mccRCC) patients treated with cytoreductive surgery of primary tumor. Methods and materials We identified and extracted mccRCC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. We used Kaplan–Meier method to perform CS analyses. A multivariate Cox regression model was applied to explore the changes of well‐known prognostic factors. Results Conditional overall survival (COS) and conditional cancer‐specific survival (CCSS) improved increasingly at all periods of survivorships compared to survival estimates at baseline in overall population of mccRCC. The 36‐month COS improved by 3.3%–6.4% given per 12 additional months of survivorships and the CCSS improved significantly from 45.1% (95% CI 42.8–47.3) at 12 months to 67.1% (95% CI 62.0–71.7) at 60 months. Much more survival gain was observed in patients with advanced disease. Furthermore, the prognostic significance of age and pathological factors diminished and even disappeared in a long‐term survivorship. Conclusions Conditional overall survival and CCSS improved with time dynamically in mccRCC patients treated with cytoreductive surgery of primary tumor. Patients with advanced disease achieved significant survival gain and even could harvest a better prognosis given that the time of survivorship exceeds a certain period. Our findings could provide valuable and practical data for patient counseling and surveillance strategy making., In this study, we investigated the survival profiles based on conditional survival estimates in metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (mccRCC) patients treated with cytoreductive surgery of primary tumor. We found that COS and CCSS improved with time dynamically in all mccRCC patients treated with cytoreductive surgery of primary tumor.

Socioeconomic status (SES) is often used to quantify social determinants of health. This study uses the National Cancer Institute SES index to examine the effect of SES on disease-specific survival and 5-year conditional disease-specific survival (CDSS; the change in life expectancy with increasing survivorship) in paranasal sinus cancer.Cross-sectional analysis.National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program.A study of adults with sinus cancer between 1973 and 2015 was performed. The Yost index, a census tract-level composite score of SES, was used to categorize patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression for disease-specific survival were stratified by SES. CDSS was calculated with simplified models. Logistic regression was conducted to identify risk factors for advanced stage at diagnosis, multimodal therapy, and diagnosis of squamous cell carcinoma.There were 3437 patients analyzed. In Cox models adjusting for patient-specific factors, the lowest SES tertile exhibited worse mortality (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.07-1.39;Lower SES is associated with worse outcomes in paranasal sinus cancer. Research should be devoted toward understanding factors that contribute to such disparities, including tumor pathology and treatment course.

OBJECTIVES The International Society of Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) criteria for primary graft dysfunction (PGD) after cardiac transplantation have been shown to stratify patient outcomes up to 1 year after transplantation, but scarce data are available regarding outcomes beyond the 1st year. We sought to characterize survival of patients with PGD following cardiac transplantation beyond the 1st year. METHODS A retrospective review of consecutive patients undergoing isolated cardiac transplantation at a single centre between 2012 and 2015 was performed. Patients were diagnosed with none, mild, moderate or severe PGD by the ISHLT criteria. Survival was ascertained from the United Network for Organ Sharing database and chart review. Kaplan–Meier curves were plotted to compare survival. The hazard ratio for mortality associated with PGD severity was estimated using Cox-proportional hazards modelling, with a pre-specified conditional survival analysis at 90 days. RESULTS A total of 257 consecutive patients underwent cardiac transplantation during the study period, of whom 73 (28%) met ISHLT criteria for PGD: 43 (17%) mild, 12 (5%) moderate and 18 (7%) severe. Patients with moderate or severe PGD had decreased survival up to 5 years after transplantation (log-rank P CONCLUSIONS A diagnosis of moderate or severe PGD is associated with increased mortality up to 5 years after cardiac transplantation. However, patients with moderate or severe PGD who survive to post-transplantation day 90 are no longer at increased risk for mortality as compared to those with none or mild PGD.

Background: Regional recurrence (RR), also known as lymph node recurrence, is an endpoint in several trials concerning reducing axillary treatment in cT1-2N0 breast cancer patients. The risk of RR may decrease with each subsequent event-free year, affecting the yield and consequently usefulness of long (er) follow-up. The aim of this study is to determine the risk of RR as a first event within five years after diagnosis in subtypes of breast cancer, conditional to being event-free for one, two, three and four years.Methods: From the Netherlands Cancer Registry, cT1-2N0 breast cancer patients diagnosed from 2005 to 2008 were analyzed. Subgroup analysis was performed for pT1-2N+(sn) patients. RR risk was calculated with Kaplan-Meier analysis. Conditional RR (assuming x event-free years) was determined by selecting patients without an event at x years, and calculating the remaining risk for RR within five years after diagnosis.Results: A total of 18,009 cT1-2N0 (all pN stages) breast cancer patients were included. RR occurred in 1.3% of cT1-2N0 and 1.5% of pT1-2N+(sn) patients. The risk of RR varied between subtypes; it was highest for triple negative tumors and lowest for ER + PR + Her2-and ER + Her2+ tumors. After event-free years, the risk of RR decreased subsequently in both groups and in all subtypes. After two event-free years, the risk of RR was 0.8%.Conclusion: The absolute yield of follow-up to detect RR beyond two years is low; for every 125 event-free patients, one RR can be expected until five years. This suggests that follow-up longer than two years is of limited value for detecting RR in both clinical and research setting.(c) 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Purpose: This study aimed to examine the effect of radiation esophagitis (RE) and the dynamics of RE on subsequent survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who underwent radiotherapy. Experimental Design: Patients with NSCLC treated with fractionated thoracic radiotherapy enrolled in prospective trials were eligible. RE was graded prospectively according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) v3.0 per protocol requirement weekly during-RT and 1 month after RT. This study applied conditional survival assessment which has advantage over traditional survival analysis as it assesses the survival from the event instead of from the baseline. P-value less than 0.05 was considered to be significant. The primary endpoint is overall survival. Results: A total of 177 patients were eligible, with a median follow-up of 5 years. The presence of RE, the maximum RE grade, the evolution of RE and the onset timing of RE events were all correlated with subsequent survival. At all conditional time points, patients first presented with RE grade1 (initial RE1) had significant inferior subsequent survival (multivariable HRs median: 1.63, all P-values

Purpose: To investigate conditional survival in patients with uveal melanoma in the United States. Design: Cohort study. Participants: Patients were identified using International Classification of Disease for Oncology, Third Edition, codes for both morphologic features (melanoma, 8720–8790) and site (retina, C69.2; choroid, C69.3; and ciliary body, C69.4) from 1975 through 2011 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database SEER 18. Methods: Observed metastasis-free survival (MFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Conditional metastasis-free survival (cMFS) and conditional overall survival were calculated based on the observed MFS and OS. Relative survival also was calculated using the actuarial method. Survival to 5 and 10 years after diagnosis were calculated, conditioned on various numbers of years already survived. Main Outcome Measures: Conditional MFS, conditional OS, and conditional relative survival. Results: A total of 6863 cases of uveal melanoma were identified. Median follow-up among survivors was 11 years. During follow-up, 3883 patients died of any cause, and of these, 2131 deaths were the result of metastatic uveal melanoma. The nonconditional 5-year MFS was 80%. After surviving 1, 2, 3, or 4 years after diagnosis, the 5-year cMFS estimates increased to 82%, 87%, 92%, and 96%, respectively. The nonconditional MFS at 10 years was estimated to be 69%. After having survived 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 years after diagnosis, the 10-year cMFS estimates increased to 87%, 90%, 93%, 96%, and 98%, respectively. This result pattern was confirmed with estimates of relative survival. Conclusions: Conditional survival estimates of uveal melanoma improve with time since primary diagnosis. Among patients who already have survived for at least 5 years, 10-year conditional survival rates are high. Conditional survival analysis can provide specific guidance for counselling patients.

Purpose Conditional survival (CS) and failure hazard estimations can provide important dynamic prognostic information for clinical decision‐making and surveillance counseling. The current study aimed to investigate the CS and dynamic failure hazard in non‐metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with intensity‐modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Methods Conditional overall survival (COS) and progression‐free survival (CPFS) estimates adjusted for age and gender against each AJCC 8th stage were calculated. Multivariable Cox regression (MCR) models were fitted in the entire population at baseline and subsequently separate MCR models were fitted in patients who have maintained event‐free time of 1 to 10 years to generate respective hazard ratio (HR). Annual hazard rates of death and progression over 10 years for each stage were also estimated. Results A total of 1993 patients were eligible for analysis. The estimated 5‐year OS and PFS for entire cohort were 79.0% and 70.7% at initial diagnosis. After 5 years of event‐free follow‐up, additional 5‐year COS and CPFS increased to 85.9% and 85.5%, respectively. Stage I/II maintained dramatically favorable CS and low hazard (< 5%) of death and progression over time. Relative to stage I/II, stage III manifested non‐significantly higher failure hazard for the first 3 years of survivorship and approached to similar level of stage I/II afterwards. Stage IVA presented most impressive improvement in terms of both COS (∆=9.8%) and CPFS (∆ = 16.8%) whereas still drastically inferior to that of stage I‐III across all conditional time points. After 4 years of follow‐up, progression hazard of stage IVA became relatively steady of approximate 6%. Conclusions Survival prospect of non‐metastatic NPC improves over years with distinct dynamic patterns across stages, providing important implications for personalized decision‐making in terms of both clinical management and surveillance counseling. Stage‐dependent and hazard‐adapted clinical management and surveillance are warranted., This study aimed to investigate the conditional survival (CS) and dynamic failure hazard in non‐metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with intensity‐modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Survival prospect of non‐metastatic NPC improved over years with distinct dynamic patterns across stage, providing important implications for personalized decision‐making in terms of both clinical management and surveillance counseling. Stage‐dependent and hazard‐adapted clinical management and surveillance are warranted.

Background The management of paranasal sinus and nasal cavity malignancies has evolved significantly with the development of advanced endoscopic techniques and improvements in adjuvant therapy. We sought to characterize both disease-specific survival (DSS) and 5-year conditional disease-specific survival (CDSS, the change in life expectancy with increasing survivorship) for sinus malignancies diagnosed before and after the year 2000. Methods Patients diagnosed with sinus and nasal cavity cancer between 1973-2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) registry. Kaplan-Meier analysis for DSS was stratified by year of diagnosis before and after 2000. Cox-proportional hazards models of DSS controlling for stage, age, and year of diagnosis were generated. CDSS was calculated using Cox-regression models stratified by stage. Results We analyzed 10,535 patients. Diagnosis after the year 2000 was independently associated with improved DSS (HR:0.81, 95% CI: 0.75-0.87, P Conclusion For paranasal sinus and nasal cavity malignancies, year of diagnosis independently influences both DSS and CDSS. Improved survival is likely due to advances in both surgical and adjuvant treatments. To our knowledge, this study is the first to examine CDSS for these malignancies.

Background After breast cancer treatment, follow-up consists of physical examination and mammography for at least 5 years, to detect local and regional recurrence. The risk of recurrence may decrease after event-free time. This study aims to determine the risk of local recurrence (LR) as a first event until 5 years after diagnosis, conditional on being event-free for 1, 2, 3 and 4 years. Methods From the Netherlands Cancer Registry, all M0 breast cancers diagnosed between 2005 and 2008 were included. LR risk was calculated with Kaplan–Meier analysis, overall and for different subtypes. Conditional LR (assuming x event-free years) was determined by selecting event-free patients at x years, and calculating their LR risk within 5 years after diagnosis. Results Five-year follow-up was available for 34,453 patients. Overall, five-year LR as a first event occurred in 3.0%. This risk varied for different subtypes and was highest for triple negative (6.8%) and lowest for ER+PR+Her2− (2.2%) tumors. After 1, 2, 3 and 4 event-free years, the average risk of LR before 5 years after diagnosis decreased from 3.0 to 2.4, 1.6, 1.0, and 0.6%. The risk decreased in all subtypes, the effect was most pronounced in subtypes with the highest baseline risk (ER−Her2+ and triple negative breast cancer). After three event-free years, LR risk in the next 2 years was 1% or less in all subtypes except triple negative (1.6%). Conclusion The risk of 5-year LR as a first event was low and decreased with the number of event-free years. After three event-free years, the overall risk was 1%. This is reassuring to patients and also suggests that follow-up beyond 3 years may produce low yield of LR, both for individual patients and studies using LR as primary outcome. This can be used as a starting point to tailor follow-up to individual needs.

PurposeSurvival probability changes over time in cancer survivors. This study examined conditional survival in patients undergoing curative resection for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).Materials and MethodsFive-year conditional recurrence-free survival (CRFS), conditional overall survival (COS), and conditional relative survival (CRS) up to 10 years after surgery were calculated in patients who underwent NSCLC resection from 1994 to 2016. These rates were stratified according to age, sex, year of diagnosis, pathological stage, tumor histology, smoking status, comorbidity, and lung function.ResultsFive-year CRFS increased from 65.6% at baseline to 90.9% at 10 years after surgery. Early differences in 5-year CRFS according to stratified patient characteristics disappeared, except for age: older patients exhibited persistently lower 5-year CRFS. Five-year COS increased from 72.7% to 78.3% at 8 years and then decreased to 75.4% at 10 years. Five-year CRS increased from 79.0% at baseline to 86.8% at 10 years. Older age and higher pathologic stage were associated with lower 5-year COS and CRS up to 10 years after surgery. Female patients, those with adenocarcinoma histology, non-smokers, patient without comorbidities and had good lung function showed higher COS and CRS.ConclusionCRFS improved over time, but significant risk remained after 5 years. CRS slightly improved over time but did not reach 90%, suggesting significant excess mortality compared to the general population. Age and stage remained significant predictors of conditional survival several years after surgery. Our conditional survival estimates should help clinicians and patients make informed treatment and personal life decisions based on survivorship status.

Dynamic survival data based on time already survived are lacking for resected borderline resectable/locally advanced (BR/LA) pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients who received total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) with FOLFIRINOX followed by chemoradiation. Conditional survival, i.e., the probability of surviving an additional length of time after having already survived an amount of time, offers such information. We aimed to determine actuarial and conditional overall (OS, COS) and disease-free survival (DFS, CDFS) among this cohort. Clinicopathologic data were retrospectively collected for resected BR/LA PDAC patients who received TNT (2011–2019). COS and CDFS rates were calculated for patients being event (death/recurrence)-free at multiple intervals and by recurrence status. After a median follow-up of 32.1 months, the 183 patients had a median OS and DFS of 39.1 months and 16.8 months, respectively. COS and CDFS increased as a function of time already survived. The probability of surviving an additional 24 months if a patient survived 2 years post-operatively was 70%, whereas the 4-year actuarial OS was 47%. Similarly, the probability of surviving disease-free an additional 24 months after 2 years was 66%, while actuarial 48-month DFS was 27%. COS for disease-free patients increased further over time. For patients remaining disease-free 12 months post-operatively, BR vs. LA status at diagnosis, tumor ≤ 4 cm at diagnosis, and R0 resection were independent predictors of favorable additional OS and DFS. For resected TNT-treated BR/LA PDAC patients, the probability of surviving an additional length of time increases as a function of survival already accrued. Dynamic survival estimates may allow personalized follow-up and counseling.

Purpose: To evaluate long-term survival trends after primary total laryngectomy (TL) for locally advanced laryngeal carcinoma (LC). Methods: A total of 2094 patients diagnosed with locally advanced LC and underwent primary TL (1992-2011, at least 5-year follow-up) in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included in this study. Besides the traditional overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) by using Kaplan-Meier curves, the 3-year conditional survival analysis was also performed to describe the long-term trends in these patients. Time-dependent multivariate competing-risk models were constructed to assess the persistent sub-distribution hazard of prognostic factors. Finally, a nomogram was developed to predict conditional cancer-specific survival. Results: The curves of overall hazard and cancer-specific hazard both quickly reached the apex within the first year since TL, then decreased thereafter. In general, the CS3 steadily increased from within 5 years after TL. In the stratified CS3 analysis, the increments in patients with adverse characteristics were more pronounced. 4 years after TL, the probability of surviving the next year exceeded 90%. The time-dependent multivariate competing-risk models indicated that age and lymph node ratio (LNR) persistently contributed to the cancer-specific outcome. The nomogram based on the competing-risk model was constructed to estimate CSS probability conditional upon 3 years for advanced LC patients having survived 1, 2, and 3 years. Conclusion: Most patients achieved a substantially improved survival rate after surviving a long period after primary TL. Patients diagnosed at older age and with higher LNR should receive more effective follow-up. The predictive nomogram can provide significant evidence for clinical research and practice.

Background Conditional survival (CS) provides dynamic prognostic estimates by considering the patients existing survival time. Since CS for endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is lacking, we aimed to assess the CS of endemic NPC and establish a web‐based calculator to predict individualized, conditional site‐specific recurrence risk. Methods Using an NPC‐specific database with a big‐data intelligence platform, 10,058 endemic patients with non‐metastatic stage I–IVA NPC receiving intensity‐modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy between April 2009 and December 2015 were investigated. Crude CS estimates of conditional overall survival (COS), conditional disease‐free survival (CDFS), conditional locoregional relapse‐free survival (CLRRFS), conditional distant metastasis‐free survival (CDMFS), and conditional NPC‐specific survival (CNPC‐SS) were calculated. Covariate‐adjusted CS estimates were generated using inverse probability weighting. A prediction model was established using competing risk models and was externally validated with an independent, non‐metastatic stage I–IVA NPC cohort undergoing intensity‐modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy (n = 601) at another institution. Results The median follow‐up of the primary cohort was 67.2 months. The 5‐year COS, CDFS, CLRRFS, CDMFS, and CNPC‐SS increased from 86.2%, 78.1%, 89.8%, 87.3%, and 87.6% at diagnosis to 87.3%, 87.7%, 94.4%, 96.0%, and 90.1%, respectively, for an existing survival time of 3 years since diagnosis. Differences in CS estimates between prognostic factor subgroups of each endpoint were noticeable at diagnosis but diminished with time, whereas an ever‐increasing disparity in CS between different age subgroups was observed over time. Notably, the prognoses of patients that were poor at diagnosis improved greatly as patients survived longer. For individualized CS predictions, we developed a web‐based model to estimate the conditional risk of local (C‐index, 0.656), regional (0.667), bone (0.742), lung (0.681), and liver (0.711) recurrence, which significantly outperformed the current staging system (P < 0.001). The performance of this web‐based model was further validated using an external validation cohort (median follow‐up, 61.3 months), with C‐indices of 0.672, 0.736, 0.754, 0.663, and 0.721, respectively. Conclusions We characterized the CS of endemic NPC in the largest cohort to date. Moreover, we established a web‐based calculator to predict the CS of site‐specific recurrence, which may help to tailor individualized, risk‐based, time‐adapted follow‐up strategies.

Objective To analyze conditional survival estimates of patients with esophageal cancer who underwent curative resection. Summary background data Conditional survival reflects dynamic prognosis updated to the current status and is a more relevant indicator for current healthcare and life decisions. Methods This study included 1,883 patients who underwent complete resection for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma at a tertiary cancer center from 1994 to 2016. We calculated 5-year (5Y) conditional overall survival (COS), conditional recurrence-free survival (CRFS), and conditional relative survival (CRS) estimates from diagnosis to 5 years of survival. Results The 5Y COS, CRFS, and CRS increased from 63.7%, 65.2%, and 70.2% at diagnosis to 75.8%, 91.9%, and 86.4 at 5 years after diagnosis, respectively. While there were large differences with different stages (stage I, II, III) at diagnosis (81.2%, 64.9%, and 37.3% for COS; 85.1, 65.1%, and 67.9% for CRFS; 89.2%, 72.1%, and 41.1% for CRS), the gap decreased with time; rates were similar after 5 years (77.1%, 75.7%, and 72.6% for COS; 91.7%, 90.6%, and 94.5% for CRFS, and 89.3%, 85.4%, and 78.3% in CRS, respectively). The 5Y COS, CRFS, and CRS were persistently lower in older patients even after 5 years. Conclusions Conditional survival estimates generally increase over time, and the largest improvements were observed for patients with advanced stage. Availability of updated prognosis at various time points allows clinicians to better guide their patients. Our results also imply substantial residual risk of recurrence and sustained excess mortality compared to the general population even after 5 years.

Background Survival after heart transplantation is typically reported only in terms of overall survival. Conditional survival may provide prognostic information for patients after surviving a given period. This study sought to provide an analysis of conditional survival in heart transplantation. Methods Data from 29,000 patients who underwent heart transplantation between 2002 and 2016 were analyzed from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database, and 5-year conditional survival rates were calculated according to age, sex, race, renal function, and hepatic function at transplantation. Results As time from transplantation increased from 0 to 5 years, the 5-year observed conditional survival changed from 74% to 82% for ages younger than 40 years, 79% to 82% for ages 40 to 49, 79% to 78% for ages 50 to 60, and 75% to 70% for ages older than 60 at transplantation. Conditional survival peaked at 1 and 2 years after transplantation for most subgroups. In recipients younger than 40 years, men had slightly higher conditional survival than women (absolute difference, 3%-4%). In recipients older than 60 years, women had slightly higher conditional survival (absolute difference, 1%-4%). Black recipients had lower survival than white and Hispanic recipients for nearly all time points. Recipients younger than 40 years with the worst renal (65% to 88%) and hepatic function (66% to 83%) at transplantation experienced the largest increase in conditional survival. Conclusions The conditional survival of patients who undergo heart transplantation changes substantially over time. The largest increases in conditional survival are in young patients with impaired renal and hepatic function. Conditional survival can provide more accurate prognostic information for heart recipients who survive a given period after transplantation.

OBJECTIVES To assess the change in rates of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) based on the duration of survival without recurrence or progression among patients with intermediate-risk (IR) non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), and to examine the predictive factors for recurrence at different time points by assessing conditional RFS and PFS. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS A cohort of 602 patients treated with transurethral resection of bladder tumour and histopathologically diagnosed with IR NMIBC was included in this retrospective study. RESULTS The conditional RFS rate at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years improved with increased duration of RFS; however, the conditional PFS rate did not improve over time. Multivariable analyses showed that recurrent tumour, multiple tumours, tumour size (>3 cm), immediate postoperative instillation of chemotherapy, and administration of BCG were independent predictive factors for recurrence at baseline. The predictive ability of these factors disappeared with increasing recurrence-free survivorship. Subclassification of these patients with IR NMIBC into three groups using clinicopathological factors (recurrent tumour, multiple tumours, tumour size) demonstrated that the high IR group (two factors) had significantly worse RFS than the intermediate (one factor, P < 0.001) and low IR groups (no factor, P = 0.005) at baseline. This subclassification stratified conditional risk of RFS also at 1, 3 and 5 years, which provides the basis for distinct surveillance protocols among patients with IR NMIBC. CONCLUSION Conditional survival analyses of patients with IR NMIBC demonstrate that RFS changes over time, while PFS does not change. These data support distinct surveillance protocols based on the subclassification of IR NMIBC.

Background Penile cancer represents a rare pathology whose natural history of treatment is poorly understood. Objective To illustrate the dynamic survival profiles in surgically treated patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the penis (SCCP) using the conditional survival (CS) estimates. Materials and methods Patients with non-metastatic SCCP were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Conditional 3-yr overall survival (OS) rate and 3-yr cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate represented the primary outcomes of interest and were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The multivariable Cox regression model was employed to calculate proportional hazard ratios for the prediction of mortality. Results A total of 1887 SCCP patients who had undergone surgeries were identified. Given a 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-yr survivorship, the 3-yr OS rates were, respectively, improved by + 9.8 (72.6%), +18.2 (78.1%), +23.4 (81.6%), +27.8 (84.5%), and + 26.6% (83.7%) from those calculated at baseline (time zero). As compared with the baseline calculations, patients who had survived 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 yr after surgery could, respectively, harvest a + 7.8 (84.7%), +14.8 (90.2%), +19.5 (93.9%), +22.1 (96.0%), and + 22.4% (96.2%) improvement in 3-yr CSS. Patients with the most aggressive disease at baseline ultimately benefited the most from event-free survivorship. Multivariable Cox regression analyses showed that the impact of adverse pathological parameters (G2-3, ≥ pT2, pN+) on OS and CSS mostly showed a decreasing trend over time and some could disappear after a minimum of 1-yr survivorship. Discussion and conclusion The survival probability of SCCP patients increases with post-operative survival. Patients with aggressive disease at baseline ultimately benefit the most from event-free survivorship and may expect a better prognosis once they survive the critical few years after surgery. The recorded observations have crucial implications regarding patient counseling and follow-up.

Using conditional survival (CS) analysis, we investigated whether the duration of survival without biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer after laparoscopic radical prostatectomies (LRP) affected the BCR rate. We also investigated the impact of well-known risk factors for BCR.Between 2002 and 2014, 627 consecutive patients underwent LRPs at our institution. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentrations above 0.2 ng/mL were defined as BCR. Conditional BCR-free survival rates were determined through Kaplan-Meier analysis. Assessment of potential BCR risk factors was performed using a Cox proportional hazard analysis.The 10-year BCR-free rates after LRP increased to 82.4%, 84.5%, 86.6%, 90.1%, and 94.7% in patients surviving 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7.5 years without BCR, respectively. Multivariate analyses of age, PSA concentrations, neoadjuvant therapy, and pathological findings were performed for all patients. In all patients, positive surgical margins (PSM) and Gleason Grade Groups (GG) ≥ 4 were independent risk factors for BCR (p 0.001, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.45; and p 0.001, HR = 2.83, respectively,). Similarly, PSM and GG ≥ 4 were significant risk factors in patients surviving 1-5 years without BCR. No clear risk factors were observed in patients surviving 5 years without BCR after LRPs.The BCR-free rate increased with time after LRP. It is recommended that patients with PSM, GG ≥ 4, or with both factors are strictly monitored for 5 years postoperatively. CS analysis is particularly useful for predicting the postoperative course of patients.

Background Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed. Methods This population-based study included patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (2005–2016). Conditional survival was calculated as the median, and the probability of surviving up to 8 years in patients who already survived 0–5 years after resection was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. A prediction model was constructed. Results Overall, 3082 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years. Median overall survival was 18 months (95% confidence interval 17–18 months), with a 5-year survival of 15%. The 1-year conditional survival (i.e. probability of surviving the next year) increased from 55 to 74 to 86% at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively, while the median overall survival increased from 15 to 40 to 64 months at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. The prediction model demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year survival at 1 year after surgery varied from 1 to 58% depending on patient and tumor characteristics. Conclusions This population-based study showed that 1-year conditional survival was 55% 1 year after resection and 74% 3 years after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. The prediction model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com to inform patients and caregivers.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide but with an approximate 5-year survival of greater than 50% in patients after surgical resection. Survival estimates have limited utility for patients who have survived several years after initial treatment. We analyzed how conditional survival (CS) after curative-intent surgery for HCC predicts survival estimates over time. METHODS: NCDB(2004–2014) was queried for patients undergoing definitive surgical resection for HCC. Cumulative overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and conditional survival (CS) at x years after diagnosis was calculated as CS(1) = OS ((X+5)) / OS ((X)). RESULTS: Final analysis encompassed 11,357 patients. Age, negative margin status, grade severity and radiation prior to surgery were statistically significant predictors of cumulative overall conditional survival (p≤0.0001). Overall unconditional 5-year survival was 65.7%, but CS estimates were higher. A patient who has already survived 3 years has an additional 2-year, or 5-year CS, estimate of 86.96%. CONCLUSION: Survival estimates following hepatic resection in HCC patients change according to survival time accrued since surgery. CS estimates are improved relative to unconditional OS. The impact of different variables influencing OS is likewise non-linear over the course of time after surgery.

Background Conditional survival (CS) is a relevant prognostic measure and may be particularly important for young adult patients with colorectal cancer (CRC), whose incidence is rising. We sought to compare CS among young versus older adults with CRC. Methods Patients diagnosed with CRC between 2004 and 2010 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry. Smoothed yearly hazards of death due to CRC, other causes and any cause were estimated, stratified by age at diagnosis (below 50 vs. 50 y and above) and stage (I-III vs. IV). Stage-specific conditional 5-year overall survival and cancer-specific survival given that patients had already survived 1 to 5 years after diagnosis was calculated. Results Among 161,859 patients with median follow-up of 54 months, 35,411 (21.9%) were aged below 50 years. For older adults with nonmetastatic CRC, hazards of death due to noncancer causes exceeded that of rectal and colon cancer ∼6.1 and 3.8 years after diagnosis, respectively. Patients experienced improved CS over time with greater improvement seen for more advanced stages. However, young adults had less CS improvement over time than older adults. For example, the 5-year cancer-specific survival for stage IV colon cancer improved from 15.6% to 77.2% (change=61.6%) 0 to 5 years after diagnosis for older adults but only 20.3% to 67.7% (change=47.4%) for young adults. Conclusions Prognosis for CRC improves over time for all patients, although the increase in survival appears to be less for young than older adults. Up to 10 years after diagnosis, the primary cause of death in young adults with CRC remains their incident cancer.

Background: Complications after colorectal cancer surgery can worsen long-term survival. The aim of this nationwide study was to determine the impact of different types of complications on overall survival (OS) and conditional survival if still alive one year postoperatively (CS-1) after colorectal cancer surgery.Materials and methods: All patients registered in the Dutch ColoRectal Audit after resection of primary colorectal cancer between 2011 and 2017 and with known survival status were included. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to assess the association of complications with OS and CS-1, thereby calculating the Hazard Ratio (HR) with 95% Confidence Interval.Results: 43,908 colon and 16,955 rectal cancer patients were included. Median follow-up time was 66.1 and 66.5 months, respectively. Five-year OS after colon cancer resection was 73.2% without complications, and 65.4% with surgical, 52.9% with non-surgical and 51.8% with combined type of complications (p < 0.001). Corresponding 5-year OS for rectal cancer patients was 76.9%, 72.7%, 64.9%, and 63.2% (p < 0.001). In colon cancer, multivariable analyses revealed HR 1.198 (1.136-1.264) for surgical, HR 1.489 (1.423-1.558) for non-surgical and HR 1.590 (1.505-1.681) for combined type of complications. For rectal cancer, these HRs were 1.193 (1.097-1.2297), 1.456 (1.346-1.329), and 1.489 (1.357-1.633). Surgical complications were associated with worse CS-1 in rectal cancer (HR 1.140 (1.050-1.260), but not in colon cancer (HR 1.007 (0.943-1.075)).Conclusion: Non-surgical complications have higher impact on survival than surgical complications. The impact of surgical complications on survival was still measurable after surviving the first year in rectal cancer but not in colon cancer patients. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd, BASO -The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Background The prognosis of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) is generally evaluated at the time of diagnosis but does not reflect the survival dynamics of patients in the future. Therefore, the purpose of this article was to evaluate the conditional survival (CS) of Chinese patients with GISTs after radical resection. Methods This retrospective study included 451 patients who underwent radical surgery for GISTs. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the prognostic factors of disease-free survival (DFS). The 3-year conditional DFS (CDFS3) of patients who survived for x years was expressed as CDFS3=DFS(x + 3)/DFS(x). Results The traditional 3-year DFS rate decreased gradually from 94.0% at 3 years to 77.3% at 7 years, while the CDFS3 rate increased from 94.0 to 95.2% over the survival time of the patients. In addition, classic clinicopathological prognostic factors had different effects on CDFS3, with changes observed in survival time, but these effects were only slight or moderate (|d| Conclusion CS provides detailed dynamic survival information about Chinese patients with primary resected GISTs. The mitotic index is of great clinical significance for the monitoring and follow-up of patient populations with a high risk of tumor recurrence or death until 5 years after surgery.

Objective: To analyze conditional survival (CS) in patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and investigate prognostic factors that affect the CS rate to provide more accurate survival information.Methods: Patients with advanced EOC between 2004 and 2015 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. CS analysis was performed to depict exact survival for patients who had already survived a specific number of years. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to ascertain the individual contribution of factors associated with actuarial overall survival (OS) at diagnosis and CS at 1, 3, and 5 years after diagnosis.Results: Of 11,773 patients, OS decreased from 32.2% at 6 years to 25.1% at 8 years, while the corresponding 5 year CS (CS5) increased from 37.5% at 1 year to 43.9% at 3 years. Subgroup analysis stratified by clinicopathological characteristics showed that CS5 was always higher than the corresponding actuarial survival (all Δ > 0). Based on multivariate analysis at diagnosis, age, race, marital status, histological type, tumor grade, size, T stage, M stage, surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for OS. Five years after diagnosis, however, only age, histological type, tumor grade, and laterality were persistently significant independent prognostic factors (all P Conclusion: CS of advanced EOC was dynamic and increased over time. Age, histology, tumor grade, and laterality were significant prognostic factors even 5 years after diagnosis. Thus, the availability of updated prognoses at various time points will allow clinicians to better guide their patients.

Objective: With the development of breast cancer treatment, the prognosis of breast cancer patients is getting better over time. Breast cancer patients want to get accurate information about prognosis according to the treatment pattern. In this study, we investigated the 5-year Conditiona relative survival (CRS) of Korean female breast cancer patients. Materials and Methods: The data from this study was collected from the Korean Central Cancer Registry (KCCR) data, National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) data and Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) data to certify relative survival and conditional relative survival for the female patients of breast cancer in the Korea. We identified 141,779 female breast cancer cases diagnosed between 2002 and 2013. The CRS was estimated for every year after diagnosis, according to age, stage at diagnosis, histologic type, year at diagnosis and treatment patterns within 1year after diagnosis. Results: The 5-year RS at diagnosis was 91.0% and the 10-year RS was 85.9%. The 5-year CRS was 91.1% and 94.3% at 1 year and 5 years after diagnosis, respectively. Very young and very old patients had worse 5-year CRS after 5 years of survival than those of other age groups (89.6% in the Conclusions: This study shows that the improvement pattern of CRS may vary according to age group, treatment pattern, and histologic type. In the group without antihormone therapy, the histologic type seems to be a different aspect of CRS, which is useful information for clinicians and patients. Key words: conditional survival, breast cancer, histology, age, stage, treatment pattern Citation Format: Eun Jin Song, So-Youn Jung, Young Ae Kim, Sun-Young Kong, Eun Sook Lee, Eun-Gyeong Lee, Heein Jo, Jae Hong Han, Seeyoun Lee, Han-Sung Kang. Conditional survival of female breast cancer patients by treatment patterns: Evidence from the Korean nationwide registry [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2019 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2019 Dec 10-14; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-13-20.

Background: Conditional survival (CS) is used to describe the dynamic possibility of survival, considering the changes of death risk with time lapsing. This study aimed to estimate the conditional disease-specific survival (CDS) for the female with operable invasive breast cancer. Methods: The data was obtained from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result Program of the National Cancer Institute. The hazard rate was calculated using kernel density smoothing method. The disease-specific survival (DSS) rates were estimated and compared using Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. The Cox regression model was used to adjust confounding factors. The CDS was calculated by CDS(y|x)=DSS(x + y)/DSS(x), where DSS(x) representatives the DSS at x year. Results: The 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year DSS was 88.7%, 82.0%, and 78.3%, respectively. The hazard rate after surgery increased initially and peaked at about 1.5 years, then decreased gradually. Meanwhile, the CDS decreased just after surgery then increased continuously, which showed a contrary trend with hazard rate. Patients with high risk factors had greater survival gap between cumulative DSS and CDS. The changing trend of CDS in patients with high risk factors was more significant, and the CDS gap between low-risk patients and high-risk patients gradually decreased over time. Conclusion: CS could provide a more precise long-term prognostic evaluation compared to traditional cumulative survival, especially for long-time survivors with high risk.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Objectives: Prolonged admissions to an ICU are associated with high resource utilization and personal cost to the patient. Previous reports suggest increasing length of stay may be associated with poor outcomes. Conditional survival represents the probability of future survival after a defined period of treatment on an ICU providing a description of how prognosis evolves over time. Our objective was to describe conditional survival as length of ICU stay increased. Design: Retrospective observational cohort study of three large intensive care databases. Setting: Three intensive care databases, two in the United States (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III and electronic ICU) and one in United Kingdom (Post Intensive Care Risk-Adjusted Alerting and Monitoring). Patients: Index admissions to intensive care for patients 18 years or older. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 11,648, 38,532, and 165,125 index admissions were analyzed from Post Intensive Care Risk-Adjusted Alerting and Monitoring, Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III and electronic ICU databases respectively. In all three cohorts, conditional survival declined over the first 5–10 days after ICU admission and changed little thereafter. In patients greater than or equal to 75 years old conditional survival continued to decline with increasing length of stay. Conclusions: After an initial period of 5–10 days, probability of future survival does not decrease with increasing length of stay in unselected patients admitted to ICUs. These findings were consistent between the three populations and suggest that a prolonged admission to an ICU is not a reason for a pessimism in younger patients but may indicate a poor prognosis in the older population.

The present study was designed to evaluate the dynamic survival and recurrence of remnant gastric cancer (RGC) after radical resection and to provide a reference for the development of personalized follow‐up strategies. A total of 298 patients were analyzed for their 3‐year conditional overall survival (COS3), 3‐year conditional disease‐specific survival (CDSS3), corresponding recurrence and pattern changes, and associated risk factors. The 5‐year overall survival (OS) and the 5‐year disease‐specific survival (DSS) of the entire cohort were 41.2% and 45.8%, respectively. The COS3 and CDDS3 of RGC patients who survived for 5 years were 84.0% and 89.8%, respectively. The conditional survival in patients with unfavorable prognostic characteristics showed greater growth over time than in those with favorable prognostic characteristics (eg, COS3, ≥T3: 46.4%‐83.0%, Δ36.6% vs ≤T2: 82.4%‐85.7%, Δ3.3%; P 0.05). Time‐dependent logistic regression analysis showed that the AJCC stage independently affected recurrence within 2 years after surgery (P, Patients with RGC usually have a high likelihood of death or recurrence within 3 years after radical surgery. We developed a postoperative follow‐up model for RGC patients of different stages.

Background The purpose of this study was to identify predictive factors associated with conditional net survival in patients with metastatic hormone‐naive prostate cancer (mHNPC) initially treated with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Methods At nine hospitals in Tohoku, Japan, the medical records of 605 consecutive patients with mHNPC who initially received ADT were retrospectively reviewed. The Pohar Perme estimator was used to calculate conditional net cancer‐specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) for up to 5 years subsequent to the diagnosis. Using multiple imputation, proportional hazard ratios for conditional CSS and OS were calculated with adjusted Cox regression models. Results During a median follow up of 2.95 years, 208 patients died, of which 169 died due to progressive prostate cancer. At baseline, the 5‐year CSS and OS rates were 65.5% and 58.2%, respectively. Conditional 5‐year net CSS and OS survival gradually increased for all the patients. In patients given a 5‐year survivorship, the conditional 5‐year net CSS and OS rates improved to 0.906 and 0.811, respectively. Only the extent of disease score (EOD) ≥2 remained a prognostic factor for CSS and OS up to 5 years; as survival time increased, other variables were no longer independent prognostic factors. Conclusions The conditional 5‐year net CSS and OS in patients with mHNPC gradually increased; thus, the risk of mortality decreased with increasing survival. The patient's risk profile changed over time. EOD remained an independent prognostic factor for CSS and OS after 5‐year follow‐up. Conditional net survival can play a role in clinical decision‐making, providing intriguing information for cancer survivors., The conditional 5‐year net CSS and OS in patients with mHNPC gradually increased. EOD remained an independent prognostic factor for CSS and OS after 5‐year follow‐up. Conditional net survival can play a role in clinical decision‐making, providing intriguing information for cancer survivors.

Purpose Conditional survival estimates (CSE) can provide additional useful prognostic information on the period of survival after diagnosis, which helps in counseling patients with cancer on their individual prognoses. This study aimed to analyze conditional survival (CS) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a Korean national registry. Materials and Methods Patients with HCC, registered in the Korean cancer registry database, were retrospectively reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The 1-year CS at X year or month after diagnosis were calculated as CS1=OS(X+1)/OS(X). CS calculations were performed in each Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, after which patients at stage 0, A, and B underwent subgroup analysis using initial treatment methods. Results A total of 4,063 patients diagnosed with HCC from January 2008 to December 2010, and 2,721 who were diagnosed from January 2011 to December 2012, were separately reviewed. In 2008-2010, the 1-year CS of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-year survivors was 82.9%, 85.1%, 88.3%, 88.0%, and 88.6%, respectively. Patients demonstrated an increase in CSE over time in subgroup analysis, especially in the advanced stages. In 2011-2012, the 1-year CS of 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months was 81.5%, 83.8%, 85.3%, 85.5%, 86.5%, and 88.8%, respectively. The subgroup analysis showed the same tendency towards increased CSE in the advanced stages. Conclusion Overall, the CS improved with each additional year after diagnosis in both groups. CSE may therefore provide a more accurate prognosis and hopeful message to patients who are surviving with or after treatment.

Purpose: The EF-14 trial demonstrated that adding tumor treating fields (TTFields) to maintenance temozolomide (TMZ) significantly extends progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) ...

Conditional survival (CS) is used to describe dynamic survival possibility, taking account of the change in the survival risk that occurs with longevity. The present study aimed to explore the CS of four treatment strategies for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), staged according to the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control NSCLC staging system. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program cohort obtained between 2004-2014, the current study first extracted data for 27,116 patients with stage I NSCLC. The actuarial cancer-specific survival rates (ACSs) and conditional cancer-specific survival rates of four treatment strategies were then compared. ACS was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and a log-rank test. The 3-year conditional cancer-specific survival (CCS3) of patients who had already survived for n years was calculated as CCS3=ACS(n+3)/ACS(n). Cox regression and propensity-score matching (PSM) was applied to adjust confounding factors. The 5-year ACS of patients who underwent lobectomy, sublobar resection, radiation and observation was 80.3, 72.0, 40.8 and 19.6%, respectively. The 5-year CCS3 of patients who underwent lobectomy, sublobar resection, radiation and observation was 91.7, 86.4, 77.0 and 58.2%, respectively. CCS3 increased with an increase in survival time and patients who underwent lobectomy had the highest CCS3 estimates and flattest growth, with the smallest survival gap between CCS3 and ACS. The results were similar in the PSM analysis. In conclusion, CS estimates may provide a more accurate survival prediction for patients with stage I NSCLC, and may assist with treatment decisions and surveillance strategies. In addition, the current study provided evidence that suggests lobectomy may be the optimal treatment strategy for stage I NSCLC compared with sublobar resection.

Background Soft-tissue sarcomas (STSs) are a group of rare cancers that can occur at any age. Prognostic outcomes of patients with STS are usually established at the time of the patient's initial disease presentation. Conditional survival affords a dynamic prediction of prognosis for patients surviving a given period after diagnosis. Estimates of conditional survival can provide crucial prognostic information for patients and caregivers, guide subsequent cancer follow-up schedules, and impact decisions regarding management. This study aims to estimate conditional survival and prognostic factors in patients with STS according to age at diagnosis (≤75 years and ≥75 years). Subjects, materials, and methods A total of 6,043 patients with nonmetastatic STS at first diagnosis who underwent complete surgical resection (R0 or R1) were assessed. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to establish prognostic factors of conditional metastasis-free survival and overall survival at 1, 2, and 5 years after diagnosis. Results Elderly patients have more adverse prognostic features at presentation and tend to receive less aggressive treatment than do younger patients. However, at baseline as well as at each conditional survival time point, the 5-year estimated probability of metastatic relapse decreases in both young and elderly patients and is almost identical in both groups at 2 years and 5 years after initial diagnosis. Prognostic factors for metastatic relapse and death change as patient survival time increases in both young and elderly patients. Grade, the strongest prognostic factor for metastatic relapse and death at baseline, is no longer predictive of metastatic relapse in patients surviving 5 years after initial diagnosis. Leiomyosarcoma is the histological subtype associated with the highest risk of metastatic relapse and death in young patients surviving 5 years after initial diagnosis. The positive impact on the outcome of peri-operative treatments tends to decrease and disappears in patients surviving 5 years after initial diagnosis. Conclusion Conditional survival estimates show clinically relevant variations according to time since first diagnosis in both young and elderly patients with STS. These results can help STS survivors adjust their view of the future and STS care providers plan patient follow-up. Implications for practice For patients with sarcoma who are followed up years after being treated for their disease, a common scenario is for the patient and caregivers to ask practitioners what the longer-term prognosis may be. The question posed to practitioners may be, "Doc, am I now cured? It's been 5 years since we finished treatment." Survival probability changes for patients who survive a given period of time after diagnosis, and their prognosis is more accurately described using conditional survival. By analyzing more than 6,000 sarcoma patients, an overall improvement was found in the risk of relapse as patients conditionally survive. Prognostic factors for metastatic relapse and death change as patient survival time increases in both young and elderly patients.

Reyizha Nuersulitan,1 Mingzi Yang,1 Lan Mi,1 Meng Wu,1 Xin Liu,2 Lingyan Ping,1 Yan Xie,1 Weiping Liu,1 Yuqin Song,1 Jun Zhu1 1Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Department of Lymphoma, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, 100142, People’s Republic of China; 2State Key Laboratory of Molecular Oncology and Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CAMS) and Peking Union Medical College (PUMC), Beijing, 100021, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Jun ZhuKey Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Department of Lymphoma, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, No. 52 Fucheng Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100142, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86 10 88196109Fax +86 10 88196115Email zhu-jun2017@outlook.comBackground: In the present study, we have tried to understand how the level of risk and survival probability changes over time for patients with classical Hodgkin’s lymphoma by employing conditional survival and annual hazard as dynamic estimates of prognosis and survival.Methods: This retrospective study reviewed the clinical data of patients with newly diagnosed classical Hodgkin’s lymphoma admitted to Peking University Cancer Hospital between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2017. Conditional survival and annual hazard rate were defined as the survival probability and yearly event rate, respectively, assuming that patients have survived for a defined time.Results: A total of 384 patients were included (median age, 32 years; range, 6– 77 years), of which 218 (56.8%) patients had early-stage disease. The median follow-up time was 41.3 months. The 5-year conditional overall survival (COS) rates remained favorable and showed an increase from 89% at treatment to 94% at year 5, while the 5-year conditional failure-free survival (CFFS) rate increased from 70% at treatment to 96% at year 5. The annual hazard of failure decreased from over 15% at diagnosis to less than 5% after 3 years. Early-stage patients had constantly lower annual estimates for hazard of death (range, 0– 3.0%) and failure (range, 0– 14.3%). However, the hazard of failure in advanced-stage patients decreased from 24.2% at diagnosis to below 8% after 3 years, whereas the hazard of death was always at relatively low levels. Patients with a high IPS risk score (≥ 3) had significantly lower COS and CFFS during the first 4 years. Patients who received the BEACOPP regimen had better 5-year COS and 5-year CFFS than those who received the ABVD regimen.Conclusion: The survival probability increased and hazard of failure decreased over time.Keywords: Hodgkin disease, conditional survival, failure-free survival, failure hazard, prognosis

Background: The impact of tumor burden score (TBS) on conditional survival (CS) among patients undergoing curative-intent resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been examined to date. Methods: Patients who underwent liver resection of HCC between 2000 and 2017 were identified from a multi-institutional database. The impact of TBS and other clinicopathologic factors on 3-year conditional survival (CS3) was examined. Results: Among 1,040 patients, 263 (25.3%) patients had low TBS, 668 (64.2%) had medium TBS and 109 (10.5%) had high TBS. TBS was strongly associated with OS; 5-year OS was 39.0% among patients with high TBS compared with 61.1% and 79.4% among patients with medium and low TBS, respectively (p < 0.001). While actuarial survival decreased as time elapsed from resection, CS increased over time irrespective of TBS. The largest differences between 3-year actuarial survival and CS3 were noted among patients with high TBS (5-years postoperatively; CS3: 78.7% vs. 3-year actuarial survival: 30.7%). The effect of adverse clinicopathologic factors including high TBS, poor/undifferentiated tumor grade, microvascular invasion, liver capsule involvement, and positive margins on prognosis decreased over time. Conclusions: CS rates among patients who underwent resection for HCC increased as patients survived additional years, irrespective of TBS. CS estimates can be used to provide important dynamic information relative to the changing survival probability after resection of HCC. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

BACKGROUND: Conditional survival (CS) is a dynamic method of survival analysis that provides an estimate of how an individual’s future survival probability changes based on time post-transplant, individual characteristics, and post-transplant events. This study sought to provide post-transplant CS probabilities for heart transplant recipients based on different prognostic variables and provide a discussion tool for the providers and the patients. METHODS: Adult heart transplant recipients from January 1(st), 2004 through October 18(th), 2018 were identified in the UNOS registry. CS probabilities were calculated using data from Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. RESULTS: CS probability exceeded actuarial survival probability at all times post-transplant. Women had similar short-term, but greater long-term CS than men at all times post-transplant (10-year CS 1.8%−11.5% greater [95% CI 1.2%−12.9%]). Patients with ECMO or a surgical BiVAD had decreased survival at the time of transplant, but their CS was indistinguishable from all others by one-year post-transplant. Rejection and infection requiring hospitalization during the first-year were associated with a persistently decreased CS probability. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we report differential conditional survival outcomes based on time, patient characteristics, and clinical events post-transplant, providing a dynamic assessment of survival. The survival probabilities, will better inform patients and clinicians of future outcomes.

Background: This study aimed to evaluate the conditional survival (CS) of appendiceal tumors (ATs) after surgery.Methods: A total of 3,031 patients with ATs who underwent surgery were included in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2016. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to analyze the prognostic factors affecting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). CS was used to calculate the probability of survival for another 3 years after the patient had survived x years. The formulas were COS3 = OS (x + 3) /OS (x), and CCS3 = CSS (x + 3)/CSS (x).Results: The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OSs for all patients were 95.6%, 83.3%, and 73.9%, respectively, while the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSSs were 97.0%, 87.1%, and 79.9%, respectively. Age, grade, histology, N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and radiation were independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS. For patients that survived for 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, their COS3s were 81.7%, 83.9%, and 87.0%, respectively. The CCS3s were 85.5%, 88.3%, and 92.0% respectively. In patients with poor clinicopathological factors, COS3 and CCS3 increased significantly, and the survival gap between OS and COS3, CSS and CCS3 was more obvious.Conclusions: CS for appendiceal tumors were dynamic and increased over time, especially in patients with poor prognosis.

This study investigated the clinical usefulness of F-18 fluorodeoxylucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) for postoperative surveillance in the RCC patients in terms of detectability of recurrence and radiation exposure. Three-hundred-and-forty- three RCC patients who underwent surgery and postoperative surveillance were retrospectively included. Conditional recurrent free survival (CRFS) was investigated and diagnostic performance of conventional imaging (CI) which include abdominopelvic CT or/and chest CT was compared to the FDG PET/CT. At a median follow-up of 4.3 years (0.5–13.0 years), thirty-nine patients (11.4%) developed recurrence. CRFS of the patients increased over time with greater increment in advanced stage. The sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value, negative-predictive value, and accuracy of FDG PET/CT were 92.3%, 97%, 80%, 99.0%, and 96.5% in detecting recurrence, while those values for CI were 89.7%, 97.7%, 83.3%, 98.7%, and 96.8%, respectively. There were no significant differences in these values between FDG PET/CT and CI (McNemar test, p = 0.581). The average radiation dose from FDG PET/CT was around 16.9 ± 3.08 mSv at each follow-up time point. For early stage patients, the average radiation dose from CI was around 26.5 ± 8.57 mSv at each follow-up time point, while this was about 33.0 ± 9.76 mSv for advanced stage patients. FDG PET/CT exhibited good diagnostic performance in asymptomatic RCC patients after surgery, of a level comparable to that of CI, but with a lower radiation dose.

ObjectiveConditional relative survival (CRS) rates, which take into account changes in prognosis over time, are useful estimates for survivors and their clinicians as they make medical and personal decisions. We aimed to present the 5-year relative conditional survival probabilities of patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer from 1997–2016.MethodsThis nationwide retrospective cohort study used data from the Korean Central Cancer Registry. Patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer between 1997 and 2016 were included. CRS rates were calculated stratified by age at diagnosis, cancer stage, histology, treatment received, year of diagnosis, and social deprivation index.ResultsThe 5-year relative survival rate at the time of diagnosis was 61.1% for all cases. The probability of surviving an additional 5 years, conditioned on having already survived 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after diagnosis was 65.0, 69.5, 74.6, 79.3, and 83.9%, respectively. Patients with poorer initial survival estimates (older, distant stage, serous histology) generally showed the largest increases in CRS over time. The probability of death was highest in the first year after diagnosis (11.8%), and the conditional probability of death in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th years declined to 9.4%, 7.9%, 6.1%, and 5.2%, respectively.ConclusionCRS rates for patients with ovarian cancer increased with each year they survived, but this did not reach the level of ‘no excess mortality’ even 5 years after diagnosis. The largest improvements in CRS were observed in patients with poorer initial prognoses. Our findings provide updated prognosis to ovarian cancer survivors and clinicians.

International audience; Numerous studies have described the prognostic factors of canine and feline mammary carcinomas (MCs), that is, variables that predict patient survival after diagnosis. But how does survival estimation evolve in patients that escaped early death from their cancer? In human oncology, conditional survival (CS), the probability of surviving X further years when cancer patients have already survived Y years, is used to analyse cancer outcomes in a long-term perspective. In this cohort of 344 dogs and 342 cats with surgically removed stage I to III invasive MCs, with a minimal follow-up of 2 years, we calculated the 1-year CS, that is, the probability for patients that have survived 1 year, to survive or to die from cancer during the subsequent year. The 1-year conditional specific survival probabilities were 59% and 48% at diagnosis of invasive MC respectively in dogs and cats, and 80% and 52% in 1-year surviving dogs and cats respectively, suggesting that 1-year surviving dogs were relatively protected from cancer-related death, whereas feline MCs remained life-threatening cancers for longer periods of time. Among the most significant parameters associated with CS in surviving dogs and cats were the nodal stage and lymphovascular invasion, as well as patient age, cancer stage and margin status in surviving dogs. By comparison, tumour size and the histological grade did not significantly alter CS probabilities in surviving dogs and cats. Conditional survival may be considered a very interesting tool for veterinary practitioners to estimate the likely outcome of cancer survivors.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive model for overall survival after esophagectomy using pre/postoperative clinical data and machine learning. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: For patients with esophageal cancer, accurately predicting long-term survival after esophagectomy is challenging. This study investigated survival prediction after esophagectomy using a Random Survival Forest (RSF) model derived from routine data from a large, well curated, national dataset. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with esophageal adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma between 2012 and 2018 in England and Wales who underwent an esophagectomy were included. Prediction models for overall survival were developed using the RSF method and Cox regression from 41 patient and disease characteristics. Calibration and discrimination (time dependent AUC) were validated internally using bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: The study analysed 6399 patients, with 2625 deaths during follow-up. Median follow-up was 41 months. Overall survival was 47.1% at 5 years. The final RSF model included 14 variables and had excellent discrimination with a 5-year tAUC of 83.9% (95%CI 82.6-84.9%), compared to 82.3% (95%CI 81.1-83.3%) for the Cox model. The most important variables were lymph node involvement, pT stage, CRM involvement (tumour at

Background: This study aims to explore the dynamic survival probability of lung cancers after resection based on those had survived several years, provide more precise monitoring and treatment information for non-metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients.Materials and Methods: In the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2000–2016), 95531 eligible non-metastatic NSCLC patients after surgery were enrolled, TNM stage were reclassified, the methods of condition survival probability (CS) and actuarial overall survival (OS) were used to explore the relationship between clinicopathological characteristics and cancer prognosis.Results: The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year OS of included patients were 83.6% (95%CI: 83%-84%), 62.9% (95%CI: 62.6%-63.1%), 50.8% (95%CI: 50.6%-51.0%) and 33.1% (95%CI: 32.7%-33.6%) respectively. For those already survived 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years after diagnosis, the probability for surviving an additional 3 years were 67%, 71%, 73%, 75% and 77% respectively. Enrolled population were reclassified into 9 cohorts including T1aN0, T1bN0, T1cN0, T2aN0, T2bN0, T3N0, T4N0, T1-4N1, T1-4N2 according to 8th TNM staging. According to the conditional survival probability, patients with unfavorable tumor stage diagnosed initially at surgery had the significant improvement in CS over time. Analysis based on other clinical features demonstrated similar conclusion that the poorer the initial diagnosis, the more significant the benefit of conditional survival over time.Conclusion: The worse the patient's prognosis, the more significant the benefit of time-dependent conditional survival probability, long-lived cancer patients may have a better cancer prognosis.

Background The purpose of this study was to assess conditional survival (CS) after resection of primary retroperitoneal tumors (RPTs). Methods The data of 1594 patients with primary RPTs who underwent surgery between 2004 and 2016 were retrieved from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Multivariate Cox analysis was used to identify prognostic factors affecting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). CS was used to calculate the probability of survival for an additional 3 years after the patient had survived x years, according to the formulas: COS3 = OS (x + 3) /OS (x) and CCSS3 = CSS (x + 3)/CSS (x). Results The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates of all patients were 89.8, 71.8, and 60.8%, while the 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS rates were 91.9, 77.1, and 67.8%, respectively. Age, sex, FNCLCC grade, size, multifocality, histology, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Among patients who survived for 1, 3, and 5 years, the COS3 rates were 72.9, 77.9, and 79.3%, and the CCSS3 rates were 78.1, 82.7, and 85.8%, respectively. Patients with poor clinicopathological characteristics achieved greater improvements in COS3 and CCSS3 rates, and the survival gaps between OS and COS3, as well as CSS and CCSS3 were more obvious. Conclusion Postoperative CS of RPTs was dynamic and increased over time. CS increased more significantly in patients with poor clinicopathological characteristics.

Objectives The objectives of this study were to analyze the conditional survival and prognostic factors in androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer using the Japan Study Group of Prostate Cancer database. Methods Data on patients treated with primary androgen deprivation therapy between 2001 and 2003 from a nationwide database of the Japan Study Group of Prostate Cancer were used. The conditional 5-year progression-free rate, cancer-specific survival and overall survival, as well as the conditional mortality owing to prostate cancer and other causes were calculated as per subgroups. Prognostic factors for progression-free rate, cancer-specific survival and overall survival at each time after androgen deprivation therapy initiation were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results The conditional 5-year progression-free rate and cancer-specific survival, but not overall survival, gradually increased with time. The prognostic impact of stage IV characteristics (T4, N1 and M1) changed over time; however, the prognostic impact of the Gleason score remained unchanged. In the subgroup analysis, prostate-specific mortality risk reduced over time in patients with stage IV prostate cancer, whereas non-prostate cancer mortality increased over time in elderly patients. Conclusions Information regarding conditional survival and mortality obtained in this study would provide a benchmark for physicians and cancer survivors.

Background Adrenocortical carcinomas (ACCs) carry a poor prognosis. This study assessed the comparative performance of existing nomograms in estimating the likelihood of survival, along with the value of conditional survival estimation for patients who had already survived for a given length of time after surgery. Methods This was an observational study based on a prospectively developed departmental database that recorded details of patients operated for ACC in a UK tertiary referral centre. Results Of 74 patients with ACC managed between 2001 and 2020, data were analysed for 62 patients (32 women and 30 men, mean(s.d.) age 51(17) years) who had primary surgical treatment in this unit. Laparoscopic (9) or open adrenalectomies (53) were performed alone or in association with a multivisceral resection (27). Most of the tumours were left-sided (40) and 18 were cortisol-secreting. Overall median survival was 33 months, with 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates of 79, 49, and 41 per cent respectively. Age over 55 years, higher European Network for Study of Adrenal Tumours stage, and cortisol secretion were associated with poorer survival in univariable analyses. Four published nomograms suggested widely variable outcomes that did not correlate with observed overall survival at 1, 3 or 5 years after operation. The 3-year conditional survival at 2 years (probability of surviving to postoperative year 5) was 65 per cent, compared with a 5-year actuarial survival rate of 41 per cent calculated from the time of surgery. Conclusion Survival of patients with ACC correlates with clinical parameters but not with published nomograms. Conditional survival might provide a more accurate estimate of survival for patients who have already survived for a certain amount of time after resection., Survival data from a cohort of 62 patients with adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) operated in a single institution were used to compare the performance and reproducibility of current nomograms. Age, European Network for the Study of Adrenal Tumours stage, hormone status, and Ki-67 index appeared to influence survival, but predictions made by four nomograms were contradictory and did not correlate with observed survival. Conditional survival might offer a dynamic prognostic model that is more informative for clinical decision-making. Conditional survival is informative

Objective Conditional relative survival (CRS) considers changes in prognosis over time and may offer more useful estimates for survivors. We aimed to investigate CRS among patients with cervical cancer stratified by various factors that influence survival probability. Methods This nationwide retrospective study used data from the Korean Central Cancer Registry. We included 78,606 patients diagnosed with cervical cancer as their first cancer between January 1, 1996 and December 31, 2015, and who were followed until December 31, 2016. CRS and the conditional probabilities of death for the following 1 year were stratified by age at diagnosis, histology, cancer stage, treatment, year of diagnosis, and social deprivation index. Results The 5-year relative survival rate at the time of diagnosis was 80.6% for all cases. The probability of surviving an additional 5 years conditioned on having already survived 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after diagnosis was 85.7%, 90.6%, 93.5%, 95.3%, and 94.3%, respectively. Patients with poorer initial survival estimates (older, advanced stage, non-squamous cell histology) generally showed the largest increases in CRS over time. Patients aged ≥70 years had the highest probability of death in the first year after diagnosis (24.5%), but the conditional probability of death in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th years declined abruptly to 13.1%, 7.5%, 5.4%, and 3.9%, respectively. Conclusions The CRS rates for patients with cervical cancer improved over time, particularly among patients with poorer initial prognoses. Our estimates enable patients to make better informed decisions regarding follow-up care and their personal life.

Purpose: To analyse the prognostic impact of isolated local recurrence (ILR) on longterm outcome for early-breast cancer patients treated with breast-conserving therapy. Material and methods: The data of the EORTC 22881-10882 'boost-no boost' and 22922-10925 'IM-MS' trials were used to analyse the prevalence and outcome following ILR. A multistate model described the impact of intermediate events on long-term outcomes, taking into account various prognostic factors. This model was used to predict long-term outcomes after ILR. Results: Of the 8367 patients included, 726 experienced an ILR, 11.6% of them within the first 2 years and 30.0% after 10 years. Ten-year cumulative breast cancer mortality rates after ILR were 58.2% in patients with an ILR within 2 years, 31.0% for ILR between 2 and 4 years, 17.6% in patients with an ILR between 4 and 10 years, and 29.7% for ILR after year 10 (p < 0.001). The multistate model showed that when tumour-free, younger breast cancer patients had a higher probability of developing ILR compared to older patients. Shorter time to ILR was associated with a higher chance to develop distant metastases (DM), and a shorter time to development of DM were associated with an increased hazard of breast cancer-related death. The multistate model enabled prediction of long-term outcome based on individual patient covariates, length of follow-up without recurrence and timing of ILR since randomisation. Conclusions: Outcome of early-breast cancer changed not only according to baseline risk factors but also according to the presence of intermediate events, time to these events, and subsequent followup without any further events. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.