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Brazil has been heavily affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we used data on reported total deaths in 2020 and in January–April 2021 to measure and compare the death toll across states. We estimate a decline in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e0) of 1.3 years, a mortality level not seen since 2014. The reduction in life expectancy at age 65 (e65) in 2020 was 0.9 years, setting Brazil back to 2012 levels. The decline was larger for males, widening by 9.1% the female–male gap in e0. Among states, Amazonas lost 60.4% of the improvements in e0 since 2000. In the first 4 months of 2021, COVID-19 deaths represented 107% of the total 2020 figures. Assuming that death rates would have been equal to 2019 all-cause rates in the absence of COVID-19, COVID-19 deaths in 2021 have already reduced e0 in 2021 by 1.8 years, which is slightly larger than the reduction estimated for 2020 under similar assumptions. New estimates of life expectancy at birth and at age 65 years in Brazil reveal substantial declines as a result of COVID-19, bringing mortality back to levels observed 20 or more years ago.

Brazil has the second-largest number of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. We use data on reported deaths to measure and compare the death toll across states from a demographic perspective. We estimate a decline in 2020 life expectancy at birth of 1.94 years, resulting in a mortality level not seen since 2013. The reduction in life expectancy at age 65 was 1.58 years, setting Brazil back to 2009 levels. The decline was larger for males, widening by 2.3% and 5.4% the female-male gap in life expectancy at birth and at age 65, respectively. Among states, Amazonas lost 59.6% of the improvements in life expectancy at birth since 2000. With 2021 COVID-19 deaths at about 43% of the total 2020 figures (as of mid-March) the demographic effect is likely to be even higher this year.

An insightful paper by Dowd et al. (1) highlights the importance of demography for analyzing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)–related mortality. The authors underscore the role of population age structure and intergenerational contacts for understanding differences in cross-country fatality and estimate the potential impact of the pandemic on different populations, acknowledging the need for additional information on the prevalence of comorbidities. We aim to interpret the proposed scenarios considering the widely different prevalence of chronic conditions by age in three of the countries discussed in the original paper. We argue that the burden of chronic diseases has the potential to offset the possible benefits of younger populations with different epidemiological characteristics. Age is fundamental to understanding differences in mortality risks. Indeed, age is a marker of the … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: nepomuceno{at}demogr.mpg.de or acosta{at}demogr.mpg.de. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

Background: The impact of extreme conditions on survival has been the focus of mortality studies using military data. However, in countries at peace, the military live in favorable conditions, being positively selected with respect to health. In this type of context, military data may help to improve our understanding of mortality differentials, particularly in countries where defective vital systems are still cumbersome for mortality studies. Methods: We estimate death rates for Brazilian Air Force (BAF) officers through Poisson regression models, compute life expectancies, and compare them with those of average Brazilians and people in low-mortality countries. We also examine causes of death and mortality differentials through a competing risks framework and Fine and Gray regression models. Results: BAF life expectancy is higher than that of the average Brazilian and comparable to Sweden, France, and Japan in 2000. Younger pilots have a higher risk of dying on duty when compared with other officers but experience lower mortality rates from other causes at advanced ages. Conclusions: BAF officers are a population subgroup in Brazil with a life expectancy comparable to the one in advanced societies. There is no association between mortality and place of birth, which indicates that different childhood backgrounds did not affect BAF mortality differentials later in life. Contribution: This paper takes a novel approach focusing on a specific subgroup with lower mortality rates than the general population and good-quality longitudinal information available, a rarity in developing countries. We argue that this approach can be an interesting strategy to study mortality differentials in developing countries.

The last century in Brazil was witness to profound changes. Female life expectancy at birth increased from 34.6 years in 1910 to 77.26 years in 2010. At the same time, the educational composition of the population has changed dramatically. In the 1940s, only 25 percent of the children aged 5 to 14 years old were enrolled in school. Currently, nearly all children attend school. We examine the extent to which changes in the age-specific distribution of education have contributed to the decline in adult mortality among women in Brazil. Our analysis follows other applications in the literature to measure the mortality reduction that would occur if exposure to specific risk factors were changed at the counterfactual level. The effects are not trivial: between 1960 and 2010, about 38 percent of the increase in life expectancy at age 30 can be attributed to changes in the educational composition of women. An additional 22 percent increase is expected until 2040.

artículo (arbitrado)--Universidad de costa Rica, instituto de Investigaciones en Salud. 2011. Este documento es privado debido a limitaciones de derechos de autor. Despite a myriad of studies examining the relationship between socioeconomic status and health outcomes, few have assessed the extent to which biological markers of chronic disease account for social disparities in health. Studies that have examined this issue have generally been based on surveys in wealthy countries that include a small set of clinicalmarkers of cardiovascular disease. The availability of recent data from nationally representative surveys of older adults in Costa Rica and Taiwan that collected a rich set of biomarkers comparable to those in a recent US survey permits us to explore these associations across diverse populations. Similar regression models were estimated on three data setsethe Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study in Taiwan, the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging, and the Health and Retirement Study in the USA e in order to assess (1) the strength of the associations between educational attainment and a broad range of biomarkers; and (2) the extent to which these biomarkers account for the relationships between education and two measures of health status (self-rated health, functional limitations) in older populations. The estimates suggest non-systematic and weak associations between education and high risk biomarker values in Taiwan and Costa Rica, in contrast to generally negative and significant associations in the US, especially among women. The results also reveal negligible or modest contributions of the biomarkers to educational disparities in the health outcomes. The findings are generally consistent with previous research suggesting stronger associations between socioeconomic status and health in wealthy countries than in middle-income countries and may reflect higher levels of social stratification in the US. With access to an increasing number of longitudinal biosocial surveys, researchers may be better able to distinguish true variations in the relationship between socioeconomic status and health across different settings from methodological differences. Universidad de Costa Rica UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias de la Salud::Instituto de Investigaciones en Salud (INISA)

A great deal of research has focused on factors that may contribute to the Hispanic mortality paradox in the United States. In this paper, we examine the role of the salmon bias hypothesis—the selective return of less-healthy Hispanics to their country of birth—on mortality at ages 65 and above. These analyses are based on data drawn from the Master Beneficiary Record and NUMIDENT data files of the Social Security Administration. These data provide the first direct evidence regarding the effect of salmon bias on the Hispanic mortality advantage. Although we confirm the existence of salmon bias, it is of too small a magnitude to be a primary explanation for the lower mortality of Hispanic than non-hispanic (NH)-White primary social security beneficiaries. Longitudinal surveys that follow individuals in and out of the United States are needed to further explore the role of migration in the health and mortality of foreign-born US residents and factors that contribute to the Hispanic mortality paradox.

Objectives. This study examined socioeconomic differentials in mortality among Hispanics in the United States, focusing on the older ages. We address previous research suggesting that social disparities in health are smaller for Hispanics than for non-Hispanic Whites and examine whether these differentials in survival are related to the mortality advantage that characterizes the older Hispanic population (i.e., the Hispanic paradox). Methods. We used Poisson regression models based on data from the 1989 to 1994 waves of the National Health Interview Survey, with linked mortality through 1997, to estimate death rates for Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites by age, gender, and socioeconomic status. Results. Deaths rates varied significantly (p < .05) by education and income for Whites and Hispanic subgroups defined by nativity (U.S. born and foreign born) and nationality (Mexican, Puerto Rican, and other Hispanic). However, with the exception of Puerto Ricans, the effects of education were significantly smaller for Hispanics than for Whites. The ethnic differences in mortality patterns by income were not statistically significant. Discussion. The findings reveal that the mortality advantage for Hispanics is concentrated at lower levels of socioeconomic status, with little or no advantage at higher levels. We propose several mechanisms related to immigration and assimilation patterns that may underlie these patterns of mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether socioeconomic and health conditions during childhood are associated with mortality during old age. METHODS: Data were extracted from the SABE Study (Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento – Health, Welfare and Aging), which were performed in 2000 and 2006. The sample consisted of 2004 (1,355 living and 649 dead) older adults. The statistical analysis was performed based on Poisson regression models, taking into account the time variation of risk observed. Older adults’ demographic characteristics and life conditions were evaluated, as were the socioeconomic and lifestyle conditions they acquired during their adult life. RESULTS: Only the area of residence during childhood (rural or urban) remained as a factor associated with mortality at advanced ages. However, this association lost significance when the variables acquired during adulthood were added to the model. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the information regarding the conditions during childhood being limited and perhaps not accurately measure the socioeconomic status and health in the first years of life, the findings of this study suggest that improving the environmental conditions of children and creating opportunities during early adulthood may contribute to greater survival rates for those of more advanced years. RESUMO OBJETIVO: Analisar se as condições socioeconômicas e de saúde na infância estão associadas à mortalidade em idosos. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se os dados do Estudo SABE (Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento) realizado em 2000 e 2006. A amostra foi composta por 2004 idosos, sendo 1.355 idosos sobreviventes e 649 óbitos. Modelos de Regressão de Poisson foram estimados, levando-se em consideração a variação do tempo de risco. Foram avaliadas características demográficas, condições no início da vida do idoso e condições socioeconômicas e de estilo de vida adquiridos na fase adulta. RESULTADOS: Situação de residência (rural ou urbano) quando criança associou-se à mortalidade nas idades avançadas. No entanto, essa variável perdeu significância quando variáveis que representam características adquiridas na fase adulta foram adicionadas ao modelo. CONCLUSÕES: Mesmo que as informações disponíveis sobre condições na infância sejam limitadas e possam não medir com precisão o status socioeconômico e de saúde nos primeiros anos de vida, os achados sugerem que melhorias nas condições ambientais das crianças e a criação de oportunidades no início da vida adulta podem contribuir para maior sobrevivência nas idades mais avançadas.

Background Few studies focus on "preclinical" warning signs associated with mortality. In this article, we investigate associations between all-cause mortality and two clusters of biological risk factors: (i) standard clinical measures related to cardiovascular disease and metabolic function; and (ii) nonclinical measures pertaining to hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity, sympathetic nervous system activity, and inflammatory response. Methods Data come from the 2000 Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study, a national sample of Taiwanese persons aged 54 years or older; 1497 persons were interviewed in their homes, and 1023 participated in a hospital examination. The analysis is based on 927 respondents with complete information. Logistic regression models describe the association between biomarkers and the 3-year probability of dying. Results Although both groups of biomarkers are significantly associated with mortality, the model with neuroendocrine and immune biomarkers has better explanatory and discriminatory power than the one with clinical measures. The association between these nonclinical measures and mortality remains strong after adjustment for the clinical markers, suggesting that the physiological effects of the nonclinical biomarkers are broader than those captured by the cardiovascular and metabolic system measures included here. Conclusions Nonclinical markers are likely to provide warning signs of deteriorating health and function beyond what can be learned from conventional markers. Our findings are consistent with those of recent studies that (i) demonstrate the importance of neuroendocrine and immune system markers for survival, and (ii) indicate that standard clinical variables are less predictive of mortality in older than in younger populations.

THE STUDY of mortality determinants has a long history in social science. Much of the early literature examined factors associated with mortality by estimating life tables for specific classifications of the population. These comparisons yielded insights on the relationship of mortality to age, sex, smoking habits, and socioeconomic variables, but they were less useful in revealing the simultaneous influence of multiple factors or the effect of measures beyond the classic socio-demographic variables in the demographer's toolkit. During the past few decades, the availability of micro-level data-especially from demographic and health interview surveys-and the concomitant use of multivariate models have permitted in-depth studies of the determinants of longevity (Elo and Preston 1996; Hayward and Gorman 2004). The resulting analyses have provided a better understanding of the complex mechanisms that mediate mortality risk. In particular, there is now a substantial literature investigating the salience of various self-reported dimensions of health for adult and old-age mortality (Hurd, McFadden, and

Background Breast cancer incidence is increasing. The survival rate varies and is longer in high-income countries. In Brazil, lower-income populations rely on the Unified Public Health System (Sistema Único de Saude, SUS) for breast cancer care. The goal of our study is to evaluate the survival of patients with operable breast cancer stages I-III at a Brazilian public hospital that treats mostly patients from the SUS. Methods A cohort study of patients who underwent surgery for breast cancer treatment at the Clinical Hospital of the Federal University of Minas Gerais from 2001 to 2008 was performed, with a population of 897 cases. Information on tumor pathology and staging, as well as patients’ age and type of health coverage (SUS or private system) was collected. A probabilistic record linkage was performed with the database of the Mortality Information System to identify patients who died by December 31th, 2011. The basic cause of death was retrieved, and breast cancer-specific survival rates were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used for univariate and multivariate analysis of factors related to survival. Results A total of 282 deaths occurred during the study’s period, 228 of them due to breast cancer. Five-year breast cancer-specific survival rates were 95.5% for stage I, 85.1% for stage II and 62.1% for stage III disease. Patients from the SUS had higher stages at diagnosis (42% was in stage III, and from the private system only 17.6% was in this stage), and in the univariate but not multivariate analysis, being treated by the SUS was associated with shorter survival (hazard ratio, HR = 2.22, 95% CI 1.24-3.98). In the multivariate analysis, larger tumor size, higher histologic grade, higher number of positive nodes and age older than 70 years were associated with a shorter breast cancer-specific survival. Conclusions Five-year breast cancer survival was comparable to other Brazilian cohorts. Patients treated by the SUS, rather than by the private system, had shorter survival times, mostly due to higher initial stage of the disease.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar, para a população com 60 anos e mais, residente no Município de São Paulo, Brasil, a associação entre mortalidade e estado marital. Para atingir o objetivo proposto, foram utilizados os dados do Estudo SABE: Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento (SABE), realizado nos anos 2000 e 2006, e modelos de Regressão de Poisson foram estimados, levando-se, em consideração, a variação do tempo de risco de morte. No geral, os resultados indicam que, entre os idosos paulistanos do sexo masculino, a taxa de mortalidade dos solteiros é 61% maior que a taxa de mortalidade observada para os casados. Por sua vez, a separação/divórcio ou a viuvez parece elevar a chance de morte das mulheres idosas analisadas. No geral, idosas separadas e viúvas apresentaram taxas de mortalidade 82% e 35% maiores que a observada para as casadas. Espera-se que este trabalho possa contribuir para um melhor entendimento dos fatores associados à sobrevivência dos idosos, além de subsidiar políticas de saúde voltadas para esse contingente populacional. This study aimed to analyze the association between mortality and marital status in the elderly population (60 years and older) in São Paulo, Brazil. The authors used data from the SABE Study (Health, Well-Being, and Aging) from 2000 and 2006. Statistical analysis used Poisson regression, considering variation in time of mortality risk. The mortality rate among single elderly males was 61% higher than among married men. Separation or divorce and widowhood increased the odds of death in elderly women (separated/divorced women and widows showed mortality rates 82% and 35% higher, respectively, than married women). It is hoped that the current study will improve our understanding of factors associated with survival in the elderly, in addition to supporting health policies for this population group. Este trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar la asociación entre el estado civil y la mortalidad, entre la población de 60 años o más que vive en São Paulo, Brasil. Para alcanzar ese objetivo, se utilizaron los datos del Estudio SABE (Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento), realizado en 2000 y 2006, y los modelos de regresión de Poisson se estimaron teniendo en cuenta la variación tiempo en el riesgo de muerte. En general, los resultados indican que, entre los ancianos de sexo masculino en São Paulo, la tasa de mortalidad de solteros es un 61% más alta que la tasa de mortalidad observada para los casados. A su vez, la separación/divorcio o viudez parece aumentar el riesgo de muerte de las mujeres ancianas. En general, las ancianas separadas y viudas presentaron tasas de mortalidad un 82% y un 35% mayores que la observada para las casadas. Se espera que este trabajo contribuya a una mejor comprensión de los factores asociados con la supervivencia de los ancianos, además de apoyar las políticas de salud dirigidas a este contingente de población.

Our chances of reaching 100 years of age are significantly higher than those of our ancestors who lived until the eighteenth century. Over the past two centuries, advances in public health, income gains, and the continuous technological development have enabled longevity to reach historically unprecedented levels. This article critically surveys the large and growing literature on factors that may have contributed to reducing mortality levels in the world. We are particularly interested on issues that currently have been the focus of demographers: the levels and patterns of mortality at advanced ages, the proliferation of centenarians, and the demographic and socioeconomic consequences of longevity gains. Whenever possible, we discuss the specific case of Brazil.

Objectives. We assessed whether the few findings to date suggesting weak relationships between education and health-related variables among Hispanics are indicative of a more widespread pattern. Methods. We used logistic regression models to examine education differentials (i.e., education gradients) in health behaviors and outcomes among White and Mexican-origin adults, adolescents, and infants. We gathered information from 3 data sets: the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey, the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, and the National Health Interview Survey. Results. In contrast with patterns for Whites, education was weakly associated or not associated with numerous health-related variables among the US Mexican-origin population. Among adults, Mexican immigrants were especially likely to have weaker education gradients than Whites. Conclusions. The weak relationships between education and health observed among individuals of Mexican origin may have been the result of several complex mechanisms: social gradients in health in Mexico that differ from those in the United States, selective immigration according to health and socioeconomic status, and particular patterns of integration of Mexican immigrants into US society.

We investigate whether a multi-system measure of physiological dysregulation based on 16 biological measures is associated with deterioration in physical and mental health over a 3-year period. The data come from a national survey of persons 54 and older in Taiwan that collected standard clinical markers related to cardiovascular and metabolic function and "non-clinical" measures pertaining to the immune, neuroendocrine and sympathetic nervous systems. The dysregulation score counts the number of biomarkers for which values are in the lowest or highest decile. Statistical models examine whether dysregulation predicts four health outcomes (survival, physical functioning, cognitive functioning and depressive symptoms), in the presence of extensive controls for baseline health. The estimates reveal significant associations between dysregulation and health for each outcome, although there is variability across outcomes. The associations are often attenuated in the presence of health controls, underscoring the importance of longitudinal analysis. This study extends previous research on the health consequences of physiological dysregulation by considering a broader range of outcomes and biomarkers in a non-Western population-based sample. Our analysis suggests that such dysregulation provides early warning signs of a broad range of comorbidities.

O objetivo deste estudo é analisar a pressão sobre o sistema de saúde no Brasil decorrente da demanda adicional gerada pela COVID-19. Para tanto, foi realizado um conjunto de simulações para estimar a demanda de leitos gerais (microrregiões de saúde), leitos de UTI e equipamentos de ventilação assistida (macrorregiões de saúde) em diferentes cenários, para intensidade (taxas de infecção equivalentes a 0,01, 0,1 e 1 caso por 100 habitantes) e horizontes temporais (1, 3 e 6 meses). Os resultados evidenciam uma situação crítica do sistema para atender essa demanda potencial, uma vez que diversas microrregiões e macrorregiões de saúde operariam além de sua capacidade, comprometendo o atendimento a pacientes principalmente aqueles com sintomas mais severos. O estudo apresenta três mensagens relevantes. Em primeiro lugar, é necessário reduzir a velocidade de propagação da COVID-19 na população brasileira, permitindo um tempo maior para a reorganização da oferta e aliviando a pressão sobre o sistema de saúde. Segundo, é necessário expandir o número de leitos disponíveis. Ainda que o setor privado contribua para amortecer o déficit de demanda, a oferta conjunta dos dois setores não seria suficiente em várias macrorregiões. A construção de hospitais de campanha é importante, tanto em locais onde historicamente há vazios assistenciais como também naqueles onde já se observa uma pressão do lado da demanda. A terceira mensagem diz respeito à organização regionalizada dos serviços de saúde que, apesar de adequada em situações de demanda usual, em momentos de pandemia este desenho implica desafios adicionais, especialmente se a distância que o paciente tiver de percorrer for muito grande.

Este artículo proporciona estimaciones de las tasas de mortalidad por la demencia por la enfermedad de Alzheimer (DA) en población adulta mayor. Para ello, se usaron datos del Censo Demográfico de 2010 del Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística (IBGE) y microdatos de mortalidad de las 27 capitales de los estados brasileños, registradas en el Sistema de Informaciones sobre Mortalidad (SIM) del Ministerio de Salud de Brasil, en población con 65 años o más por lugar de residencia, entre los años 2009 y 2013. Se obtuvieron correcciones de los subregistros de mortalidad y ajustes finales de las tasas específicas de mortalidad, a partir de métodos bayesianos, con distribuciones de probabilidad a priori, construidas en base a información obtenida desde metaanálisis. Se destaca que las tasas por demencia y DA en Brasil fueron superiores a las obtenidas en países desarrollados. Las tasas de mortalidad por Alzheimer en 2013 fueron de 140,03 (IC95%: 117,05; 166,4) y 127,07 (IC95%: 103,74; 149,62) por 100.000 habitantes, respectivamente, en hombres y mujeres. La contribución de la DA a la mortalidad adulta mayor en el Brasil fue 4,4% (IC95%: 3,25; 5,72), en el grupo de personas de 0 a 3 años de estudio, independiente de la edad y sexo. Nuestras contribuciones fueron dirigidas a aumentar el conocimiento en estimaciones corregidas de las tasas de mortalidad por Alzheimer con base en estadísticas vitales, proporcionando estimaciones más precisas y pertinentes, fundamentadas en el método científico.