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Background: To date, incident and recurrent MI remains a major health issue worldwide, and efforts to improve risk prediction in population health studies are needed. This may help the scalability of prevention strategies and management in terms of healthcare cost savings and improved quality of care., Methods: We studied a large-scale population of 4.3 million US patients from different socio-economic and geographical areas from three health plans (Commercial, Medicare, Medicaid). Individuals had medical/pharmacy benefits for at least 30 months (2 years for comorbid history and followed up for 6 months or more for clinical outcomes). Machine-learning (ML) algorithms included supervised (logistic regression, neural network) and unsupervised (decision tree, gradient boosting) methodologies. Model discriminant validity, calibration and clinical utility were performed separately on allocated test sample (1/3 of original data)., Results: In the absence of MI in comorbid history, the overall incidence rates were 0.442 cases/100 person-years and in the presence of MI history, 0.652. ML algorithms showed that supervised formulations had incrementally higher discriminant validity than unsupervised techniques (e.g., for incident MI outcome in the absence of MI in comorbid history: logistic regression "LR" - c index 0.921, 95%CI 0.920-0.922; neural network "NN" - c index 0.914, 95%CI 0.913-0.915; gradient boosting "GB" - c index 0.902, 95%CI 0.900-0.904; decision tree "DT" - c index 0.500, 95%CI 0.495-0.505). Calibration and clinical utility showed good to excellent results., Conclusion: ML algorithms can substantially improve the prediction of incident and recurrent MI particularly in terms of the non-linear formulation. This approach may help with improved risk prediction, allowing implementation of cardiovascular prevention strategies across diversified sub-populations with different clusters of complexity., (© 2022 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The Medicare home health care eligibility changes, which occurred during the 1980s, were designed to make home health care more accessible to older adults. Ideally, by the 1990s, older adults in need of home health care services should no longer have encountered barriers to accessing this benefit. Therefore, an individual's need for home health care services should have been the primary determinant of service utilization. This paper examined whether need was predictive of home health care use. Client-level data on the case mix of home health care agencies in San Francisco and Philadelphia, as well as agency administrator interview data, were analyzed to determine which characteristics were the best predictors of home health care use. The regression analyses results revealed that, although client characteristics were important predictors of the amount and type of home health care services received during an episode of care, client characteristics alone did not adequately predict the amount and type of home health care services received by older adults.

During the 1980s, as the health care industry experienced what observers have dubbed a revolution, the home health industry also experienced its own transformation. Utilizing three organizational theories (neoinstitutional, resource dependency and population ecology), the authors report on a study of a probability sample of 163 home health agencies (HHAs) that were interviewed in 1986 and again in 1987 on the effects of Medicare policy changes including prospective payment (DRGs). This study tests hypotheses concerning the influence of environmental factors (e.g., state policy and characteristics of the local market) and organizational characteristics of the HHA (e.g., tax status and Medicare reliance) in explaining the propensity of HHAs to be (or become) parts of chains and/or multi-facility systems; and to develop particular types of interorganizational relations. The paper discusses the results in the context of public policy changes and the implications for future research and practice.

This article reports findings from a multistate study of the effects of medical cost containment policy, particularly the Medicare DRG (Diagnosis Related Groups) reimbursement policy, on community-based services for the elderly. The study findings reveal that since the implementation of DRGs, more older clients in poorer states of health are seeking posthospital care services. Greater client demand and illness acuity is leading to increases in service refusals to vulnerable clients and the creation of agency waiting lists. The majority of agency directors attribute the declining health status of clients to DRG reimbursement.

This paper revisits the aging enterprise in the context of the new competitive business ideology. Public policy has created an aging enterprise that assures that the needs of the aged will be processed and treated as a commodity. The medical-industrial complex, which comprises the most significant part of the aging enterprise, is a primary beneficiary of the recent reformulation of values and expectations vis-a-vis the state and the private sector. The new business ideology in health is aimed not only at controlling costs but, more importantly, at establishing health care as a market good like any other. Issues of access to needed services are raised for Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries and for the uninsured. Budget cuts, medical cost control, and the market ideology are resulting in greater fragmentation, privatization, and corporatization of services, as indicated by the author's research on the private nonprofit health and social services sector in a sample of 8 states and 32 communities. In this paper, age-segregated politics and policies in the United States are challenged to utilize grass-roots political efforts that cross age and class barriers. Single-interest aging-based policies are criticized as a form of selfish separatism that could supplant an important and vitally needed intergenerational and coalition strategy.

The home health care industry has undergone a dramatic period of growth since the passage of Medicare (Title XVIII of the Social Security Act) in 1965. This growth has occurred in both the expansion of the total number of Medicare-certified agencies providing care, as well as the number of clients served and hours of care provided. It has been suggested that the single most important factor in this market expansion was the inclusion of a home care benefit in the original Medicare legislation, thus making it possible for nonprofit home care agencies to rely on a predictable source of government reimbursement. This paper explores the influence that amendments to the Medicare legislation since 1980 have had on market expansion, as well as other federal, state and private policy initiatives that have also influenced this growth. The authors suggest that overall growth does not equate with improved access or availability of needed services in the home for the frail and functionally-impaired elderly. Research findings from the first year of a three year study designed to document the impact of cost containment policies on community-based care for the elderly are reported in summary form to illustrate the authors position.