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In the context of the debate on Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) under inflation targeting regimes, this study analysis the ERPT in inflation targeting and non-targeting economies of ASEAN-5. Employing a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (N-ARDL) framework on data from 2000: Q1 to 2019 Q:4, our key empirical findings suggest that the exchange rate shocks do lead to significant changes in inflation. There is also prima facie evidence of asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks in Singapore, Philippines, and Indonesia and the results varied between and among inflation targeting and non-targeting countries. The results also varied in the short and long-terms, whereas in the long-run, asymmetric effects of real exchange rate persist only for Indonesia and Singapore. Regardless of the inflation targeting or non-targeting regime, oil price shocks are found to be the most crucial factor with the largest impact on inflation in ASEAN-5 economies. Money supply and output growth also found to have some effect on inflation, though the results varied among countries. Our findings have profound implication for monetary policy formulation and price stability.

Ensuring aggregate food price stability requires a forward-looking assessment of the risk that unexpected deviations in individual food items’ inflation lead to large shocks in the aggregate food price inflation. To do so, we propose using a multivariate GARCH framework in combination with the Euler method to (1) estimate the conditional standard deviation and quantiles of the food price inflation shocks and (2) attribute the total risk to the underlying food items. For the FAO food price index, we find that even though meat inflation systematically has the highest weight in the aggregate index, cereal inflation is the main contributor to the total food price inflation risk over the period 1990–2018. The use of time series models and the Cornish-Fisher expansion make the risk characterization forward-looking and a potentially helpful tool for risk management.

Does monetary policy react systematically to macroeconomic innovations? In a sample of 16 countries – operating under various monetary regimes – we find that monetary policy decisions, as expressed in yield curve movements, do react to macroeconomic innovations and these reactions reflect the monetary policy regime. While we find evidence of the primacy of the price stability objective in the inflation targeting countries, links to inflation and the output gap are generally weaker and less systematic in money-targeting and multiple-objective countries.

The price of anarchy and price of stability are two well-studied performance metrics that seek to characterize the inefficiency of equilibria in distributed systems. The distinction between these two performance metrics centers on the equilibria that they focus on: the price of anarchy characterizes the quality of the worst-performing equilibria, while the price of stability characterizes the quality of the best-performing equilibria. While much of the literature focuses on these metrics from an analysis perspective, in this work we consider these performance metrics from a design perspective. Specifically, we focus on the setting where a system operator is tasked with designing local agent utility functions to optimize these performance metrics in a class of games termed covering games. Our main result characterizes a fundamental trade-off between the price of anarchy and price of stability in the form of a fully explicit Pareto frontier. Within this setup, we observe that optimizing the price of anarchy comes directly at the expense of the price of stability (and vice versa). Our second result demonstrates how a system-operator could incorporate an additional piece of system-le

This speech highlights two channels through which globalization poses challenges for monetary policy. The first channel is through the global determination of the average world natural real rate of interest, which implies that saving and investment shifts abroad can influence the domestic interest rate setting consistent with price stability. The second channel is through global digital payments systems, which may compromise domestic policy sovereignty through effects on both monetary and financial stability.

Following the twin crises of sovereign debt and COVID-19, the ECB risks being stuck in a situation of fiscal dominance, in which monetary policy is subordinated to the needs of finance ministers. A strong post-COVID-19 recovery may increase inflationary pressures, requiring a shift towards a less accommodative monetary policy stance. A tightening of monetary policy may, however, lead to a widening of interest rate spreads and new bond market tensions in the euro area. This article argues that the credibility of the ECB is undermined if it is perceived as aiming to close interest spreads. Interest spreads between euro countries arising from fiscal concerns should be a matter of fiscal policy, not monetary policy. The establishment of an interest stabilisation mechanism would allow the ECB to restore monetary dominance and to focus on maintaining price stability.

The role of inflation versus output and exchange rate in designing monetary policy in Egypt has been subject to considerable debate in literature, even after the proclamation of price stability as ...

This research aims to find out the factors that determine liquidity and profitability as well as the contribution of Sharia banking to the economic growth in Indonesia. The study used quarterly data for the period 2009-2019, a multiple regression model with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analysis method. The results revealed that capital, financing and third party funds are factors that determine the liquidity of Sharia banking. Sharia banking profitability is influenced by capital and inflation. The role of Sharia banking on economic growth occurs through financing activities, large capital and utilization of Sharia monetary policy instruments. Efforts to control liquidity at optimal levels can be done by taking into account the capital factors held by Sharia banking. Efforts to achieve maximum value of profitability can be implemented by benefiting price stability in the macroeconomic. Efforts to boost economic growth are carried out by utilizing rising prices and limiting the profit value of Sharia monetary policy instruments. Moreover, Sharia banking is able to increase the share of financing channeled.

The present study aims to examine the role of zakat in addressing unemployment and inflation, while also revisiting A.W. Phillips’ trade-off theory. The study adopts a qualitative methodology, using library research to critically analyse how zakat could address unemployment and inflation. The study argues that the optimal application of zakat could overcome the issue of unemployment while maintaining price stability. This is true since zakat can be distributed in two forms: consumptive and productive. Therefore, an increase in aggregate demand will always be followed by a rise in aggregate supply; the distribution of zakat in the consumptive form will increase aggregate demand, while the distribution of zakat for a productive purpose will increase aggregate supply. An increase in aggregate demand would in turn increase production, thus absorbing more labour as a result. This is where zakat addresses unemployment. On the other hand, a rise in aggregate demand will initially inflate the aggregate price. However, since the increase in aggregate demand is simultaneously followed by an increase in aggregate supply due to the distribution of zakat in its productive form, the price remains stable. Aggregate demand and aggregate supply cross at an equilibrium point. More importantly, the price is stable while the quantity of production is at its highest level. The findings of the study serve as a reference point for regulators formulating fiscal policy embedded in the zakat system.

We explore to what extent official interest rate changes can potentially in a procyclical manner impact different financial cycle indicators (credit/GDP, debt service ratio, house prices and stock market indices). We test this on data covering 1995−2016 in 21 countries and the euro area using the Concordance index and Monetary policy procyclicality ratio. Results show that this was not a widespread phenomenon, but there was significant heterogenenity across countries. The procyclicality of interest rate changes was usually higher when financial cycle gaps were increasing and lower when they were decreasing. On average, central banks in several larger economies were running potentially less procyclical monetary policy than those in the smaller ones. The resulting propensity of conflicts between achieving price and financial stability by central banks was low, as only in 10% of the cases the objectives were conflicting (usually when inflation was below the target and the credit cycle was in an expansion phase).

The question of whether domestic prices respond to either official exchange rate or parallel exchange rate movement is a key research issue especially in an oil-dependent developing country like Nigeria with rising fiscal pressures and a vibrant parallel market. Also from the monetary authority perspective, it is imperative to know if prices respond symmetrically and/or asymmetrically to both official and parallel exchange rates movement. Consequently, this study examines the response of domestic prices to both official and parallel exchange rates movement for the period 1995Q1-2019Q1 with the Shin et al. (In: Horrace WC, Sickles RC (eds) Festchrift in Honour of Peter Schmidt. Springer, New York, pp 281–414, 2014) nonlinear ARDL approach. The results provide support for prices responding symmetrically to parallel rates than the official rate especially in periods of large exchange rate premium. However, prices only respond differently to depreciation and appreciation of the official exchange rate in Nigeria. Consequently, the government needs to ensure some levels of fiscal austerity and possible exchange rate unification when the premium gets large if the intention is to insulate domestic prices from fiscal pressures. Also, the Central Bank of Nigeria needs to take cognizance of possible asymmetric relationship in their decisions to ensure price stability so as not to distort monetary policy effect.

The purposes of this study are (1) to analyze the effect of the BI rate on inflation (2) to analyze the effect of the BI 7 day reverse repo rate on inflation (3) to analyze the different effects of the BI rate and the BI 7 day reverse repo rate on inflation. The method used in this study uses secondary data sourced from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Indonesian financial economy. The analysis of this study with vector autoregressive (VAR) using the Eviews 10 software program, results of the study analyzed that the difference in the influence of the central bank's interest rate policy on inflation in Indonesia, that the BI rate of interest on inflation had a positive and significant effect with a benchmark of 5% or 0.005%, the analysis on the BI 7 day reverse repo rate is not significant at the benchmark of 5% or 0.005% but has a positive effect in reducing inflation in Indonesia which reflects price stability as the final target of monetary policy. Keywords: BI rate, BI 7 day reverse repo rate, Inflation, Vector autoregressive (VAR)

The persistent inflationary pressure despite monetary policy targets has become a phenomenon of interest among researchers. The study investigates the effects of monetary policy targets on inflation and its volatility in Nigeria using data spanning from 1985 to 2019. The ADF unit root test used confirmed that all the variables under study are integrated order zero in their level series. A Comparison of inflation volatility models (ARCH and GARCH models) with appropriate error distribution using AIC indicated that ARCH (1) is most appropriate. The results of least squares (LS) and maximum likelihood (ML) ARCH methods of estimation for the model specifications showed that measures of monetary policy targets such as narrow money supply (M1), broad money supply(M2), net domestic credit(NDC), net credit to government(NCG) and credit to private sector(CPS) have no significant effect on inflation and inflation volatility respectively except M2. However, M2 effect spurs inflation rather than curbing it. Hence, it becomes imperative for the government to make proactive policies targeted to reduce inflationary pressures so as to attain price stability in Nigeria’s economic space. Keywords: monetary policy targets, inflation, Volatility models.

The central banks of developed countries and those in the region of Central Europe responded to the global financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent economic recession by considerably easing monetary conditions and using new monetary policy tools. One of those tools was the entry into the so far uncharted territory of negative interest rates. The passage of some years after the inception of these new tools has allowed the emergence of new empirical literature, which addresses their effects and effectiveness. The primary objective of this paper is to examine and summarize the empirical literature that deals with the effective lower limit of interest rates, especially in relation to the banking sector and bank interest margins. We then use empirical findings from other countries and apply them to the Czech Republic and draw conclusions for the future monetary policy of the CNB. Our results confirm that the CNB has got enough manoeuvring room even in the area of negative interest rates, which it can take advantage of either for the purpose of price stability, or for more effective management of FX operations.

This study aims to review Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators before and during the covid-19 pandemic. Using time-series data sourced from ceicdata, this study uses non-parametric statistical methods of different tests (sign tests). The results showed that there is a significant difference between before and during the covid-19 pandemic on international macroeconomic indicators of the rupiah exchange rate against USD, external debt, reserves, and Indonesian CPI. Recommended to the Government of Indonesia through Bank Indonesia and other relevant Ministries need a strict policy on a rupiah exchange rate that leads to price stability to reduce the rate of inflation, management and disclosure of external debt information, the achievement of trade balance surplus to increase reserves towards increasing domestic economic growth.

This study investigated the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) outbreak on prices of maize, sorghum, imported rice and local rice in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). We estimated dynamic panel data models with controls for macroeconomic setting using general method of moments estimation. The study found that the COVID‐19 outbreak led to increases in food prices of the sampled countries. Restrictions on movements or lockdowns in the wake of COVID‐19 was associated with an increase in the price of maize only. We also found that exchange rate, inflation and crude oil prices exerted a detrimental effect on food prices. We recommend that governments of SSA countries invest in infrastructure that improves efficiencies in the food supply chain during pandemics. Providing adequate support to industries in the value chain will also improve food availability and food price stability post‐COVID‐19.

Aim: In this article, the state of the discourse concerning the final goal of the modern central bank is presented, in particular the aim of price stability, understood as low and stable inflation. Design/Research methods: The article was prepared on the basis of scientific publications in the field of monetary policy as well as materials and documents from different central banks, including the US Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank. Conclusions/findings: Low and stable inflation reduces uncertainty about future price developments. This facilitates decision-making for companies concerning production and investment, and for households concerning consumption and saving. From a macroeconomic point of view, price stability is a prerequisite for the efficient functioning of the economy and for achieving high growth rates. In practice, the need for a quantifiable definition has been disregarded, while only a descriptive and qualitative definition of price stability is insufficient for an effective monetary policy and the implementation of the anti-inflationary mission by the central bank.

This study aims to determine the effect of world oil prices, inflation, household consumption on economic growth in Indonesia. This research is a type of descriptive research with a quantitative approach using the annual time series data in 1988 - 2018. The model analysis technique used in this study is multiple linear regression with 31 samples. The results showed that both simultaneously (F test) and partially (t test) world oil prices had a significant (positive) effect, inflation had a significant (negative) effect, and household consumption had a significant (positive) effect on economic growth. Based on the results of the study, the government as a joint policy maker with Bank Indonesia can jointly reduce and maintain the stability of the inflation rate through monetary policy so that economic actors get clarity and encourage productivity by opening investment taps, providing business protection, and lowering export duties or create a fiscal policy. The government needs to establish policies to encourage oil production so that oil production can be optimal dan maintain oil supply so that people’s needs are met and oil prices can remain stabl and also maintaining the stability of prices for goods so as to encourage domestic consumption.

The essential characteristics of the monetary policy of the state as a system of measures and instruments of state regulation of the monetary sphere, the direction of state influence on monetary and credit relations are specified. Its subjects and objects are identified, principles, goals and modes are defined. The relationship between the formation and implementation of monetary policy and the strengthening of financial security of the state are shown. Using the method of the main components, an integrated assessment of the state of monetary and security of Ukraine in 2000, 2005, 2010—2018 was conducted. The weighting coefficients of Ukraine’s monetary security indicators are determined and its integral values are calculated. The highest level of influence of such indicators was identified as the ratio of the monetary aggregate M3 to GDP (23,3 %), the ratio of GDP to the volume of the monetary aggregate M2 (22,5%), the amount of cash to GDP (22,6 %). The conclusion was made that the level of monetary and credit security of Ukraine in 20132018 was decreasing. The lowest was the value of monetary and security of the state in 2016 — 0,49 (on a scale from zero to one), in 2018 the index rose to 0,51, but its value is low. The existence of a statistically significant link between monetary and financial security of Ukraine is empirically assessed and established. For the period 2000-2018, the determination coefficient was 0,86. Accordingly, the tendency to lower the level of monetary security leads to a virtually parity deterioration of the state financial security. The strategic priorities of the state policy of the development of monetary and credit sphere in the context of ensuring the financial security of the state are grounded. Strategic priorities of state regulation are defined: ensuring the price stability and stability of the national monetary unit, strengthening the stability of the banking system, its creditworthiness, forming a high-quality exchange-exchange rate environment, the development of the stock market, and improving the institutional principles of state regulation of the monetary sector. Identified measures, the implementation of which allows to achieve the identified strategic priorities and improve the financial security parameters of Ukraine.

The article deals with the issues of formation and implementation of monetary policy. The peculiarities of implementation of monetary regime of inflation targeting in Ukraine and in other countries are defined. The growing role of central banks in ensuring price and financial stability and supporting economic growth is justified. The modern possibilities of realization of the main function in the activity of the National Bank of Ukraine are revealed. The importance of adhering to the interconnected goals of monetary policy is justified. It is determined that the controlled movement of financial flows and price stability can only be ensured at the same time as financial stability in the context of economic growth. The role and dynamics of the discount (key) rate in the implementation of the inflation targeting regime is revealed. In the presence of measures of state stimulation of business activity, the directions and intensity of movement of financial flows change. It is justified that central banks should have enhanced institutional and instrumental capabilities to prevent the risks of destabilization. This is ensured by cooperation with the government in the implementation of monetary policy. It is proved that in order to further stabilize the markets it is necessary to implement in monetary policy not monetary «solo», but monetary «mix» of the central bank-government.

MSc. Filip Peovski[1] PhD. Gjorgji Gockov[2] ASSESSING THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S UNCONVENTIONAL MEASURES – A RECURSIVE VAR APPROACH ABSTRACT Unconventional monetary measures utilization has proven to be of great importance in maintaining monetary and economic stability after the Great Recession. However, we aim to test this conclusion through the impact of the quantitative easing implemented by the European Central Bank. Observed through generated shocks in the balance sheet of the Eurosystem as our main variable, we tested whether quantitative easing reestablished economic growth and rose price levels, mainly through lowering borrowing costs for banks, thus helping in the post-crisis recovery. To prove our hypotheses we construct a recursive VAR model estimated in levels using 2014M05-2018M12 data. The model incorporates variables such as the industrial production and the HICP, as output and price level proxies, and financial components such as the EONIA-MRO spread and the CISS index. The results show that the expansion shocks of the consolidated balance sheet have a positive temporary influence on industrial production and the HICP, but the reaction of the former seems to be 2.24 times greater. On the other hand, we find out that quantitative easing has an expected negative impact in widening the EONIA-MRO spread. Furthermore, we could not confirm the theoretically expected accommodative impact on financial stress. Keywords: Unconventional monetary measures, price stability, policy interest rates, recursive VAR model JEL Classification: C32, E43, E52, E58 [1] Teaching and Research Assistant, Faculty of Economics – Skopje, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University, e-mail: peovski@eccf.ukim.edu.mk [2] Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics – Skopje, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University, e-mail: gockovg@eccf.ukim.edu.mk

This paper examined the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Namibia. The paper employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Granger causality approach using quarterly data for the period 2002 - 2017. Empirical results showed evidence of a long run positive effect of fiscal deficit on inflation in Namibia. This suggests that fiscal deficit has a direct effect on inflation in Namibia. The study also found a unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to inflation in Namibia. The study confirmed that South Africa’s prices have positive effect on inflation in Namibia. The key policy implication drawn for the result is that if not contained, high negative fiscal balances could impair the monetary policy objective of price stability. It is therefore advised that fiscal and monetary policies need to be well coordinated to bring fiscal deficit within acceptable level. Given that the main monetary policy goal in Namibia is to achieve and maintain price stability, the results in this study suggest that monitoring budget deficits and price developments in South Africa to develop informed policies is one way to achieve this objective.

Price stability are important for macroeconomic stability, especially for the economies, which are facing macroeconomic instability. Contractionary monetary policy can play an important role in minimizing the frequency of price change, so for effective monetary policy, it is necessary to identify the determinants of price setting behaviour. The objective of the study is to determine the patterns of price setting of firms and responses of firms to economic shocks, i.e. changes in demand and supply side factors, the role of firm characteristics, institutional and other factors in determining the channel of adjustment after these shocks. The data is collected through stratified frandom samplling from 342 firms, located in four Industrial estates of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Price setting behavior is measured through importance of demand and cost shocks for price change. To estimate the effects of determinants of price change, models are estimated through logistic technique. Firms’ likelihood of price increases higher than that to price decrease in response to both demand and supply shocks. Furthermore, supply-side factors lead to higher frequency of price change than demand-side factors do. The cost of raw material and cost of energy are the most important causes of price change, both for the price increase and decrease. Demand and cost shocks are important determinants of price change for imperfectly competitive firms, backward-looking firms, firms run by managers having more information about economic conditions, while credibility of central bank is important determinant of price change in case of demand shocks only. Size of firms and information set regarding expected inflation do not have any effect. For effective monetary policy of Pakistan, credibility of central bank has to be established to stabilize prices and pre-emptive measures should be taken on the part of central bank to counter supply shocks.

This paper develops a calibrated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating a banking sector and some unique features of China’s macroeconomic policies to simulate China’s monetary and macroprudential policies. The quantitative results show, first, that the interest rate is a better instrument for China’s monetary policy than the required reserve ratio (RRR) when the central bank is solely concerned about price stability; second, that the loan-to-value ratio is a very useful macroprudential tool for China’s financial stability, and the RRR could be used as an instrument for both objectives; third, monetary and macroprudential policies could be either complements or substitutes in China, depending on the choices of instruments for the two policies. Our policy experiments recommend three combination choices of instruments for China’s monetary and macroprudential policies. (JEL codes: E52, E61and G18)

The literature documents the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies in controlling systemic risk, but empirical evidence of a systemwide framework that effectively coordinates the two policies is lacking. This study assesses the effectiveness, channels, and timeliness of monetary and macroprudential policies’ impacts on systemic risk in China from January 2009 to June 2018, and contributes to the discussion of how to coordinate these policies. Using an index synthesized from 28 indicators to proxy China’s systemic risk, we find the following: (1) A contractionary monetary (macroprudential) shock increases (reduces) systemic risk over the entire shock time period. (2) Macroprudential (monetary) policy is effective in the long (short) term. (3) The systemic risk intervention effect of monetary (macroprudential) policy is channeled through inflation control (asset price stability).

Inflation is the sustained rise in the prices of commodities. Central Banks have the critical responsibility of ensuring price stability; however, every attempt should be made to ensure that price stability should not hit economic growth. Thus, it becomes imperative for Central Banks to determine the key fiscal and monetary factors that have the greatest impact on domestic price levels. Based on these factors, it can tackle the problem of inflation effectively and efficiently. Further, there are several global price indices and factors that need to be factored in while tackling the problem of inflation. The objective of the current study is to empirically determine the macroeconomic factors that play a significant role in influencing inflation in India. The study considers international food and oil price indices amongst other macroeconomic variables such as the fiscal deficit, index of industrial production, exchange rate, MIBOR, and money supply in order to explain inflation. Monthly data for each of the above variables were collected for the research period 2000-10. The study is based on Vector Auto-Regressive modeling. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test was performed to test for stationarity of all of the time-series data. The results of the Granger causality tests indicate that fiscal indicators such as fiscal deficit and international factors such as international food and oil price indices play a significant role in influencing inflation. The research outcomes conform to the results of several earlier studies. Key Words:Inflation, fiscal and monetary factors, macroeconomic factors, vector autoregressive modeling, Granger causality test

The main objective of this paper is to investigate whether economic uncertainty affects narrow money demand in New Zealand and whether the specified money-demand function remains stable over time. New Zealand adopted inflation-targeting in the early 1990s by discarding monetary-targeting or any other strategy of monetary policy for price stability on the grounds that instability in the narrow money-demand function might sever the relationship among money, output, prices, interest rates, and exchange rates, as the classical monetary theory suggests. This paper specifies an augmented money-demand function for an open economy that includes economic uncertainty and inflation volatility as two additional determinants of money demand. Quarterly data for New Zealand for the period 1995Q1–2017Q4 is used to determine whether these variables remain significant in an augmented money-demand function in this country. The empirical results, obtained by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, suggest that there exists a cointegral relationship among variables in the specified model and that economic uncertainty negatively affects narrow money demand in New Zealand. Further, the empirical results, obtained by the non-linear ARDL (NARDL) approach, suggest that economic uncertainty affects narrow money demand asymmetrically. An increase in economic uncertainty lowers narrow money demand, while a decrease in economic uncertainty does not increase – and​ instead seems to decrease – narrow money demand. Unlike with economic uncertainty, an increase in inflation volatility, which represents inflation uncertainty, increases narrow money demand. Although it is not conclusively established in this paper, the effect of inflation uncertainty on narrow money-demand seems symmetric. The narrow money-demand function is found in this paper to have remained stable irrespective of whether the model is estimated by the ARDL or NARDL approach. This paper draws the conclusion that the abandonment of money in the formulation of monetary policy strategy, such as inflation-targeting in New Zealand, cannot be justified on the grounds of instability in the narrow money-demand function.

South Africa targeted inflation since February 2000 as its monetary policy framework to ensure long-run price stability and continues to pursue a target of 3-6% for headline CPI inflation. Monetary policy emphasises the importance of promoting economic growth that can be sustained and maintenance of low inflation in an economy. Therefore, the paper seeks to check whether a relationship between economic growth (GDP) and expectation inflation exists. The autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) econometric methodology was employed to achieve the objectives. The ARDL bounds test found that there is a long-run cointegration between GDP and expectation inflation. Moreover, the ARDL results revealed that in the long run expected inflation had a negative significant effect on GDP. This implies that lower expectation inflation could stimulate economic growth. It is recommended that South Africa should continue to target inflation because its target band of 3% to 6% keep policy makers on the loop.

This article examines the benefits of CFA zone membership by estimating the effects of joining the CFA zone on short‐run business cycle indicators such as income per capita and inflation as well as long‐term economic indicators such as trade relations with France and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mali. Using the synthetic control method, we show that Mali’s CFA membership has a positive effect on its income, inflation, and FDI but no discernible effect on trade relations with France. We conclude that joining the CFA zone can generate potential economic gains for countries seeking membership by fostering growth and providing price stability but does not necessarily increase trade relations with France even though the CFA is a former French colonial currency.

Many countries implement plans and programs whose purpose is low-income class protection and increase the purchasing power in order to eradicate poverty. The most common plan is the subsidies payment for consumption of deficits. Governments provide inexpensive goods and services and help to make price stability for necessities by applying policy in consumption sector. This research studies consumption expenditure shares in rural and urban households according to the importance of this issue and accordingly expenditure shares are rated and it is the basis of targeting subsidy policy. This article by use the MICROFIT program (ARDL method, 42 observations used for estimation from 1977 to 2019), tries to survey the short and long-term relationship, the dynamic relationship of short-term trend toward long-term equilibrium, diagnostic and structural break tests for the variables and the household costs function. According to the results of statistic tests, the model presented the best possible status of classic hypotheses and statistics and therefore confirm the relationship and co-integration between the variable of cost function and finally, structural stability is accepted. By comparing the urban household costs, according to the results we can say that the food is ranked among the goods with low rank, therefore, targeting the subsidies is less important than the rest of the cost. Also, the cost share of clothing goods is totally high for households and in urban households’ expenditures, the cost share of these goods is higher than the rest, so these costs play an important role in targeting the subsidies and should be taken into consideration. By comparing the rural household costs, we can say, the contribution of educational, cultural and recreational services costs for rural households is high and thus the share of the allocated expenditures for such goods is higher than the rest. Therefore, these costs play an important role in targeting the subsidies and should be taken into consideration. Finally, targeting subsidy helps government to arrange subsidy rate of different goods correctly. and give the most to low income classes to boost social welfare. Result show that targeting subsidy in rural and urban is different because of different expenditures share in household budget, and the same economics policy for these two household types is not correct.

The topic of the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) implementation of monetary policy has a significant presence in economics textbooks as well as standards and guidelines for economics instruction. This presence likely reflects the fact that it is the implementation framework that helps ensure that the Fed’s desired level of its policy interest rate is transmitted to financial markets, which helps it steer the economy toward the Congressional dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Over the past decade or so, the Fed has purposefully shifted the way it implements monetary policy to an environment with ample reserves in the banking system, and it has introduced new policy tools along the way. This paper shows that, unfortunately, many teaching resources are not in sync with the Fed’s current framework. We review six, 2020 or 2021 edition, principles of economics textbooks, and we find they vary greatly in their coverage of the concepts associated with the way the Fed implements policy today and in the longer run. We provide recommendations on how the authors can improve the next editions of their textbooks. We also review standards and guidelines used by secondaryschool educators. All of these are out of date, and we provide proposals for how these materials can be updated.

Inflation refers to an ongoing and overall comprehensive increase in the overall level of goods and services price in the economy. Today, inflation, which is attempted to be kept under control by central banks or, in the same way, whose price stability is attempted, consists of continuous price changes that occur in all the goods and services used by the consumers. Undoubtedly, in terms of economy, in addition to the realized inflation, inflation expectations are also gaining importance. This situation requires forecasting the future rates of inflation. Therefore, reliable forecasting of the future rates of inflation in a country will determine the policies to be applied by the decision-makers in the economy. The aim of this study is to predict inflation in the next period based on the consumer price index (CPI) data with two alternative techniques and to examine the predictive performance of these two techniques comparatively. Thus, the first of the two main objectives of the study are to forecast the future rates of inflation with two alternative techniques, while the second is to compare the two techniques with respect to statistical and econometric criteria and determine which technique performs better in comparison. In this context, the 9-month inflation in April-December 2019 was forecast by Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), using the CPI data which consist of 207 data from January 2002 to March 2019 and the predictive performance of both techniques was examined comparatively. It was observed that the results obtained from both techniques were close to each other.

Employing Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model where factors are obtained using the principal component analysis (PCA) and the parameters of the model are estimated using Vector Autoregression framework, we analyse how changes in monetary policy variables impact inflation, output, money supply, and the financial sector in India. Our results for the period 2001:04 to 2016:03 show that the benchmark FAVAR model showed more reliable results than baseline VAR model. Benchmark FAVAR model shows the existence of weak ‘liquidity puzzle’ in India. The impulse responses from the FAVAR approach reveal that monetary policy is more efficient in explaining the variations in inflation rather than stimulating output indicating its effectiveness in attaining the objective of price stability.

After the global financial crisis, it was observed that price stability alone would not ensure financial stability. The new paradigm indeed insists on the inclusion of financial stability as an additional macroeconomic objective. In this context, it is essential to understand how exactly is the new objective of financial stability will be placed in the existing framework. Also, the efficacy of monetary policy in this regard needs to be thoroughly discussed. This paper probes into the employability of monetary policy as a tool to achieve financial stability. We, therefore, compare between interest rates obtained from the standard Taylor rule and asset price augmented Taylor rule in the Indian context. The results suggest that targeting asset prices can be one of the effective ways to contain financial instabilities and consequent economic slumps.

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for assessing the current state of the economy as it relates to the pursuit of both price stability and maximum employment. In particular, we propose two broad categories of unemployment rate benchmarks: (1) a longer-run unemployment rate expected to prevail after adjusting to business cycle shocks and (2) a stable-price unemployment rate tied to inflationary pressures. We describes how various existing measures used as benchmark rates fit within this taxonomy with the goal of facilitating the use of a common set of terms for assessments of the current state of the economy and deliberations among policymakers.

International audience; We examine whether food price shocks are a major source of macroeconomic fluctuations. We estimate a small open economy DSGE model using an alternative Taylor rule applied to Chilean data. The empirical evidence suggests that food inflation played a non-trivial role in shaping Chile's de facto monetary policy actions. Consistent with its commitment to price stability, the central bank increases the policy rate in reaction to food inflation. Despite an immediate monetary policy reaction to a food price shock, the policy rate gradually tapers off. This is due to a second-round effect on non-food inflation propagated by the food price shock. A main finding is that monetary policy that targets headline inflation is welfare improving.

Interest rate is considered one of the most important tools of monetary policy in Egypt, and it is the most used to maintain price stability and tackle inflation, here we study its effect on consumption and income in an econometric technique. This research is concerned with the study of the impact of interest rate shocks as an indicator of monetary policy on household consumption and Income in Egypt during the period from 1980 to 2018. The research applies the quantitative analysis approach and uses the econometric model to deduce results and uses a Small Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR). The research concludes that one standard deviation shock in interest rate shrinks consumption, but this very small and fast decrease is almost insignificant, while income initially increases in response to this positive shock. On the other hand, a negative shock in consumption causes a reduction in interest rate. the research also indicated a mutual relationship between consumption and income

We propose a new flexible inflation targeting index, the economic stability index (ESI), that could enable the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement more effective monetary policy for the euro area (EA). This index incorporates separately weighed house prices and stock prices. Furthermore, by weighting the housing sector in both normal and bubble events, it enhances the forecasting ability and accuracy of this new index. We demonstrate the resilience of this index using a range of robustness checks with multiple empirical methods. Our index that is equipped with these forward‐looking variables enhances the ability to sense potential economic risks, whilst improving price stability and minimizing the output gap variance. This broader index may assist the ECB in addressing the challenges of the long‐term decline of neutral interest rates in many EA economies and the weakening of the inflation/unemployment relationship under the Philips curve. The complexity of the ECB relationship with different fiscal authorities prevents any changes without significant structural variance. The ECB, however, can use a stabilization tool with enhanced foreseeability such as this ESI to improve stability without making significant structural changes.

One strand of empirical literature finds that central bank independence (CBI) lowers inflation. Another strand of literature finds that low inflation is a key determinant of reform towards increase...

The global economy has witnessed many economic fluctuations and waves of inflation and recession. With the consideration of achieving price stability as a primary goal of the economic policies, any attempt to eliminate inflation means accepting higher rates of unemployment, and vice versa. This conflict relationship was explained by the Economist “Phillips”, who developed the inflation/unemployment curve. After the emergence of the stagflation phenomenon, this relationship became an object of argument and skepticism. Therefore, the key point of this study is to investigate the tradeoff relationship between inflation and unemployment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the period 1988-2017. The co-integration and error correction approaches have been utilized, to determine the equilibrium relations in the long-run and short-run, and the causality direction between the two phenomena. Johansen test indicated that a long-run co-integration relationship was existed. Based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), results provide evidence in favor of the long-runs negative causation running from unemployment to inflation. Contrary to expectation, there was no significant evidence of short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation in the Saudi economy.

Doodle polls allow people to schedule meetings or events based on time preferences of participants. Each participant indicates on a web-based poll form which time slots they find acceptable and a time slot with the most votes is chosen. This is a social choice mechanism known as approval voting, in which a standard assumption is that all voters vote sincerely—no one votes “no” on a time slot they prefer to a time slot they have voted “yes” on. We take a game-theoretic approach to understanding what happens in approval voting assuming participants vote sincerely. While our instances are framed in the context of the Doodle poll application, the results apply more broadly to approval voting. First we characterize Doodle poll instances where sincere pure Nash Equilibria (NE) exist, under lexicographic tie-breaking, random candidate, and random voter tie-breaking. We then study the quality of such NE voting profiles in Doodle polls, showing the price of anarchy and price of stability are both unbounded, even when a time slot that many participants vote yes for is selected. Finally, we find some reasonable conditions under which the quality of the NE (and strong NE) is good.

Este documento analiza la evolución de la tasa de inflación interanual en Bolivia con tres estados, en el periodo de 1987 a 2017, con datos de frecuencia trimestral. Para tal efecto se utilizan los modelos markovianos: Switching Markov Regression Arma de orden 3 [MS_ ARMA(3, 2, 1)], con parámetros autoregresivos de orden 1 y 2 y la inclusión de una dummy de tendencia en cada régimen. Los resultados demuestran que, en el periodo en estudio, predominan las temporadas de baja y moderada inflación en toda la muestra. Otro hallazgo importante es que la persistencia estimada en la tasa de inflación interanual en Bolivia es del orden 0.1174. Ello implica una persistente baja en la inflación, lo que significa que los choques en ella se disipan rápidamente, confirmando así la estabilidad de precios que se gesta desde mediados de los años 90.

This paper employs a vector error correction methodology to investigate the long-term determinants of consumer goods inflation and industrial growth in Mexico during the 2001–2016 period. This is underpinned by a aggregate demand-aggregate supply model that brings new explanatory variables into play and keeps a priori restrictions on the data to a minimum. The evidence shows that cost-push and demand-pull inflation are both present and reveals the variables at work in each case. This study fills a gap in the empirical literature by showing that labour productivity not only spurs industrial growth, but also lowers consumer goods inflation in the long run. The policy implication of this finding is important given the need to attain faster economic growth without sacrificing price stability.

Inflation expectations are known to be quite heterogeneous across agents. We investigate whether this heterogeneity is primarily due to differences in people’s understanding of the inflation process and of the goals and intentions of the central bank. Using micro data from a survey conducted among 2000 Austrian households, we construct an indicator of “inflation literacy” from several questions on people’s knowledge about different aspects of inflation. We find that this indicator helps explain both the level and the uncertainty of inflation expectations: Households with relatively higher levels of inflation literacy tend to have lower and more accurate short-term and long-term inflation expectations. Interestingly, however, they are less certain about their inflation expectations than people with lower levels of inflation literacy. We also find that people’s trust in the central bank and in its ability to maintain price stability significantly dampens their inflation expectations.

The paper studies the impact of inflation on income inequality in Russian regions. It was revealed that the reduction in inflation from double-digit rate to the Bank of Russia’s target did not help to mitigate inequality, but rather exacerbated it. We identified a group of products which changing price dynamics affects inequality. The price increase may lead to the decline in inequality through redistributive effect. It is shown that in Russia this effect is associated with the channel of unexpected inflation that results in real wealth transfer from more prosperous lenders to less well-off borrowers. The policy of inflation targeting, successfully implemented by the monetary authorities in recent years, has reduced the volatility of inflation and limited the operation of this channel. At the same time, quantitative estimates of the increase in inequality as a result of achieving price stability remain relatively low.

A comprehensive strategy for price stability, particularly for the long-run, requires coordination between monetary and fiscal policy. To our knowledge, the fiscal initiative to control inflation in India is abstracted. The targets and executions of the fiscal policy of different state governments are independent, lop-sided, and also distinct from the fiscal stance of the central government. Besides, the fiscal policy of the central and the state governments are not consistent with the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of India. Under this backdrop, this paper examines the extent of fiscal variable, trade openness in addition to structural and monetary policy variables impacting inflation in India since the 1980′s. The paper confirms that public debt is inflationary; while openness is anti-inflationary particularly the consumer price inflation is concerned. Significant impact of the money growth, real interest rate, real effective exchange rate, and the output gap in consumer and wholesale price inflation is also established. The paper concludes that apart from the monetary management, anti-inflationary fiscal policy and comprehensive policy for the real sector and external sector are also essential to stabilize inflation for the long-run. Prolific monetary-fiscal policy coordination in India is a fantasy.

This paper focused on the goals of monetary policy on how to take action to reduce the inflation rate and achieve economic stability in India. The monetary policy the arm of public policy the usual goals of monetary policy are to achieve full employment, to achieve high rate of economic growth, and to stabilize prices and wages, to maintain equilibrium the balance of payment, influencing the cost and availability of credit and increasing the repo rate by central bank and Government of India. Every country needs to achieve price stability in economic development. The inflation rate below close to 2% is low enough to allow the economy to benefit fully from price stability and avoid deflation risk and, beyond the level of inflation above 3 to 10% in any economy of the country, it’s harmful to the economy. Present India’s consumer price inflation rate was (CPI) 3.9% and the whole sale inflation rate of (WPI) 1.8% in the Financial Year of 2019. According to Econometric models estimated in 2020, India’s inflation rate is projected around 4.5%. In this study, we study whether inflation is an effective tool for controlling inflation and achieving economic stability in India?

Despite the fact that China has become the second largest economy in the world, its monetary policy is yet to be understood by the outside observers. In this paper we estimate the policy preferences of China's central bank by confronting a small-scale microfounded New Keynesian DSGE model in which monetary policy is described by commitment or discretion with the Chinese macroeconomic data over the period from 1992Q2 to 2017Q4. Bayesian model comparison reveals that the data favours discretionary monetary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights under both cases show that the leading policy goal is price stability, followed by output stability and then interest rate smoothing. Finally, through counterfactual analyses we assess how macroeconomic outcomes might improve had the Chinese central bank been able to commit.

Economic theory suggests that monetary policy can be used to stabilize an economy. However, the ability of monetary policy targets—interest rates and money supply—to stabilize an economy depends on their ability to achieve price stability. Using data from 1981 to 2018 and applying the vector error correction model, this paper seeks to determine how the changes in the inflation rate affect the ability of monetary policy tools to stabilize the Nigerian economy and stimulate investment. Empirical results suggest that the impact of the interest rates on investment depends on the level of the inflation rate. The size of the effect of interest rates on investment gets weaker as the inflation rate increases suggesting that monetary policy tools, such as the monetary policy rate (MPR), that directly change the interest rates are robust stabilization tools during periods of declining inflation rates but not relevant during periods of rising inflation rates. This is attributable to low bank lending rates. Additionally, the impact of the money supply target on investment does not depend on the level of the inflation rate. This suggests that monetary policy tools, such as open market operations, that directly change the money supply can be relevant stabilization tools during economic booms and recessions. As a result, the Central Bank of Nigeria should work to deepen the scale, capacity, and efficiency of its open market operations by ensuring that most of the people can participate with minimal transaction cost and by making different financial instruments available.

Poverty often impedes economic development in numerous countries, Indonesia included. Poverty, as a result of the failure of economic development, must continue to be suppressed and a solution sought, so that poverty no longer causes adverse effects for the country. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of unemployment, minimum wage, and real gross regional domestic product (GRDP) on poverty reduction in the provinces of Indonesia. Using periodic data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (Badan Pusat Statistik-BPS) over the period 2010-2019, the fixed effect model of the panel data analysis is estimated. The result showed that unemployment and wage had a significant positive effect on poverty in provinces of Indonesia. Meanwhile, the real GRDP had a significant negative effect on poverty in Indonesia. Thus, government policy must focus on reducing unemployment, maintaining price stability to preserve wage levels and purchasing power, and increasing the real GRDP to reduce poverty in Indonesia.