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We examine how firms’ contractual relationships with their employees affect the design of their debt contracts, and the use of financial covenants in particular. Viewing the firm as the nexus of both explicit and implicit contractual relationships, we argue that managers cater to their employees’ preferences when negotiating contractual terms with creditors. We argue that an increase in unemployment-insurance benefits reduces employees’ cost of job loss, which, in turn, allows managers to take more risk. First, we show that more generous benefits are associated with a higher operating leverage, operating cash flow volatility, and product-development frequency. We then find that loans initiated following an increase in unemployment-insurance benefits include a higher proportion of performance, rather than capital covenants. Overall, our study demonstrates how the design of debt contracts changes in response to arguably exogenous changes in employees’ collective tolerance—and, in turn, managers’ preferences—for risk. JEL Classifications: M41; G32; J60.

This paper investigates the extent to which state-level differences in business taxes influence the location decisions of multiestablishment firms. Each state in the United States administers their own unemployment insurance program, and cross-state variation leads to significant tax differences across state lines. This decentralized administration creates opposing employment incentives on the intensive and extensive margins depending on the economic conditions. Studying the locations of multistate manufacturing firms, I find that firms are more likely to exit from high-tax states during economic downturns, but high-tax plants experience more stable employment during nonrecession years.

A sizeable proportion of enterprises, especially SMEs, in receipt of financial assistance from the government, will fail to repay. In this paper we asked whether, and to what extent, it may be beneficial to apply a screening mechanism to deter those mostly likely to fail to repay from seeking such financial assistance in the first place. The answer largely turns on the relative weights attached for the objectives of stabilisation as compared with allocative efficiency. For this purpose, we develop a two-sector infinite horizon model featuring oligopolistic small businesses and a screening contract in the presence of a pandemic shock with asymmetric information. The adversely affected sector with private information can apply for government loans to reopen businesses once the pandemic has passed. First, we show that a pro-allocation government sets a harsh default sanction to deter entrepreneurs with bad projects from reentering and improves aggregate productivity in the long run, but the economy suffers persistent unemployment in the near term. However, a pro-stabilisation government sets a lenient default sanction or provides full guarantees to reach full employment in the short term, but the economy will be shifted to a lower equilibrium in the long run. The optimal default sanction balances the trade-off between allocation and stabilisation. Then, we derive an analytic measure of “Stabilisation Proclivity” and characterise the parameter space and the macro-financial frictions that render the government either more pro-allocation or more pro-stabilisation. Finally, we solve for the optimal default sanction numerically and conducts comparative statics for various policy analyses.

The Great Recession has witnessed not only a marked disruption in the credit markets and a sharp increase of capital underutilization, but also a severe deterioration of the matching efficiency in the labor market, as evidenced by the historically high unemployment rate and a significant outward shift of the Beveridge curve. Motivated by these facts, I develop a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model to show that financial frictions can manifest themselves as changes in the endogenous matching efficiency in the labor markets. Furthermore, I come up with sufficient statistics to capture the selection and congestion effects of financial frictions on unemployment. The analytical characterization shows that the competing effects crucially depend on interaction between credit imperfections and labor supply elasticity. I then use a calibrated version of the model to show quantitatively that the credit crunch during the financial crisis was a key driving force behind the outward shift of the Beveridge curve, which can explain up to 40% of the rise in the unemployment rate over the business cycles.

Iraq suffers from economic and social problems and challenges, the most important one which is unemployment and the weak ability to generate income and employment. The importance of the benefiting from the experiences of countries in the field of developing small projects, where the active role of the state in drawing the features of a strategy to enhance the competitive advantages of projects in an attempt to overcome the obstacles that these projects suffer from, whether in terms of administrative aspects or the absence of organizations responsible for guiding investors or in terms of commercial and technical support The financial environment and the lack of an institutional framework and an incubating legislative environment, as well as infrastructure as basic ingredients for the development of the small projects. The small projects sector has the ability to achieve economic and social benefits due to its major role in expanding the production base, diversifying sources of income, creating job opportunities for the unemployed, especially young people, and expanding the investment circle. In Iraq, we find that small and medium-sized projects that have stopped working for several reasons need great support in light of the difficult circumstances that are characterized by the instability of the economic situation and the situation in the Iraqi market of dumping various commodities, the high general level of prices, the lack of influence of the exchange rate on local prices and the lack of profitable investment opportunities The absence of credit facilities. Where all these factors combine to pose difficult challenges for owners of small and medium projects to be reflected on the Iraqi economy.

This paper analyzes Okun’s Law for Spain using regional data. The results confirm a very high Okun coefficient for Spain, with a high degree of regional heterogeneity. Furthermore, we find that panel data techniques provide notably more stable estimates than time series techniques applied to the same regional data. Finally, the results reveal a remarkable degree of regional heterogeneity in cyclical asymmetry in Okun’s Law for the Spanish case. Keywords: Unemployment; Okun’s Law; Economic Cycles; Regional Growth. JEL: E24, E32, R11.

The aim of this study is to investigate three relevant dimensions of Brazilian inequality in the labor market, gender, race and age, in the period 2012-2020. More specifically, we analyze how these statistics were affected by the crisis due to Covid-19. It is observed that inequalities in participation, unemployment, occupation and informality rates are not reduced during the 2020 crisis. On the contrary, there is an increase in the difference of employment to population ratio by race and age. The results also indicate that 2020 is characterized by an unusual increase in the chances of job loss and a reduction in the chances of getting a job. It is important to note that even when controlling for other personal or job characteristics, women, blacks and young people are more likely to lose their jobs. Nonetheless, this disadvantage is not specific of the 2020 crisis.

This paper quantifies the effects of the increasing maximum unemployment insurance (UI) duration during recessions on the drop in the correlation between output and labour productivity in the U.S. since the early 1980’s - the so-called productivity puzzle. Using a general equilibrium search and matching model with stochastic UI duration, heterogeneous match quality, variable search intensity and on-the-job search, I demonstrate that the model can explain over 40 percent of the drop in this correlation (28 percent when the Great Moderation is taken into account). More generous UI extensions during recent recessions cause workers to be more selective with job offers and lower job search effort. The former channel raises the overall productivity in bad times. The latter prolongs UI extensions since in the U.S. they are triggered by high unemployment.

This paper uses transaction-level customer data from the largest bank in Denmark to estimate the change in consumer spending caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting shutdown of the Danish economy. We find that aggregate spending was on average 27% below the counterfactual level without the pandemic in the seven weeks following the shutdown. The spending drop was mostly concentrated on goods and services whose supply was directly restricted by the shutdown, suggesting a limited role for spillovers to non-restricted sectors through demand in the short term. The spending drop was larger for individuals with more ex ante exposure to the adverse consequences of the crisis in the form of job loss, wealth destruction, severe disease and disrupted consumption patterns and, most notably, for individuals with an ex post realization of crisis-related unemployment.

We show that business cycles reduce welfare through a decrease in the average level of employment in a labor market search model with learning on the job and skill loss during unemployment. Empirically, unemployment and the job-finding rate are negatively correlated. Since new jobs are the product of these two from the employment transition equation, business cycles imply fewer new jobs. Learning on the job implies that the resulting decrease in employment reduces aggregate human capital. This reduces incentives to post vacancies, further decreasing employment and human capital. We quantify this mechanism and find large output and welfare costs of business cycles. (JEL D83, E23, E24, E32, J24, J63)

Occupy Wall Street is an ongoing series of protests, initiated on September 17, 2011 in lower Manhattan's financial district, against alarming trends in social inequality, high rates of home foreclosure and unemployment, and the excessive influence of corporate and financial interests on government. The protests attracted large numbers of participants and gained widespread international attention due to the movement's broad appeal, to “the 99 percent,” and tenacious use of nonviolent protest against variably heavy-handed police response. Keywords: popular culture; democracy; inequality; movements; protests; resistance; student movements; Western Europe; Middle and Near East

This paper argues that the canonical search-and-matching model cannot generate the observed cyclical asymmetry of the unemployment rate. In the United States, the unemployment rate raises quickly and abruptly at the onset of contractions and declines slowly and gradually during expansions. This pattern produces positive skewness in the distribution of unemployment rate changes, while the model produces a counterfactually negative skewness. The key feature of the model responsible for this counterfactual prediction is the convexity of hiring costs in aggregate employment, which leads to excessive responsiveness of job vacancies to positive shocks in periods of high unemployment. I argue that the inability of the model to replicate the cyclical asymmetry in the data stands regardless of its ability to generate realistic fluctuations in unemployment. Furthermore, high replacement rates and real wage rigidity (both fixed and downward rigid wages) - commonly used to enhance amplification of shocks - do not resolve the puzzle, rather they make it worse.

This paper studies the impact of labor market conditions during the education-to-work transition on workers' long-term skill development. Using representative survey data on measures of work-relevant cognitive skills for adults from 19 countries, I document four main findings: i) cohorts of workers who faced higher unemployment rates at ages 18–25 have lower skills at ages 36–59; ii) unemployment rates faced at later ages (26–35) do not have such an effect; iii) the former findings hold even though, on average, people get more formal education as a response to higher unemployment in their late teens and early twenties; iv) skill inequality is affected: workers whose parents were less educated bear most of the negative effects. These findings can be rationalized by on-the-job learning during the early twenties being an important factor of skill-development, and such learning being negatively impacted by bad macroeconomic conditions. Using German panel data on skills, I show that young workers at large firms experience higher skill growth than those at small firms. This finding suggests firm heterogeneity in human capital provision to young workers as a potential mechanism since, in bad economic times, young workers disproportionately match with small firms.

Black communities have been affected disproportionately by the negative conditions associated with COVID-19, such as higher levels of morbidity and mortality, unemployment, underemployment, food insecurity, homelessness, grief and loss, and the pandemics of intersectionality. This adversity is often associated with greater vulnerabilities in the areas of psychological functioning and wellness. Black communities have historically had negative experiences with the medical establishment. Despite recent increases, Black Americans still tend to underutilize mental health services due to many barriers, such as stigma, attitudes of mistrust, geographical inaccessibility, lack of affordable options, the availability of culturally humble mental health providers, myths of Black invincibility, and challenges navigating complex systems of care. Due to the physical and psychological impacts of the polypandemic, Black populations are in even greater need of mental health care. Additionally, there is increased risk to the mental health of Black children in relation to trauma and the suicide crisis. This article will focus on our responsibility as a clinical community to reduce and eliminate the obstacles to service utilization among Black populations using the following strategies: understanding historic cultural mistrust;enhancing the pipeline of Black psychologists;integrating cultural adaptations into therapy;acknowledgment of the suicidal crisis and impact of adverse childhood experiences among Black children and youth;affirming the importance of religious/spiritual worldview and practices;and prioritizing self-care for psychologists. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved) Impact Statement The present study identifies multiple strategies psychologists can employ to increase mental health utilization among Black populations, particularly during COVID-19, including understanding historical cultural mistrust, enhancing the pipeline of Black clinicians, and integrating cultural adaptations into therapy. The importance of prioritizing self-care is demonstrated through findings in the literature as well as data from a predominantly Black independent practice in order to maximize client engagement. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved)

In the National Development Plan, cooperatives and agriculture development are identified as possible solutions for addressing rural poverty and unemployment, especially among the youth. However, according to most research/literature, agricultural cooperatives fail for many reasons, including but not limited to lack of capital, incompetent management and organizational deficiencies. This study applied a qualitative analysis to the qualitative data using a case study of Zanokhanyo Food Security Cooperative (ZFSC) in Ndabakazi, Butterworth. Interviews with the project members, ex-members, extension officers and youth were conducted through a semi-structured questionnaire administered in IsiXhosa. According to the results, lack of intensive production resulting in very low incomes is one of the reasons why projects such as ZFSC fail to attract young people and provide employment for rural people. Agricultural extension advisory services play a very limited role because of their generalist approach; they lack depth of knowledge about diverse agricultural subject areas. This study recommends that agricultural extension and the farmers’ support system be improved by employing or outsourcing specialists to cater to the needs of agricultural cooperatives in order to improve the productivity and income of agricultural cooperatives.

This paper quantitatively investigates the medium- and long-term macroeconomic and distributional consequences of school closures through intergenerational channels. The model economy is a dynastic overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which schools, in the form of public education investments, complement parental investments in producing children's human capital. We find that unexpected school closure shocks have long-lasting adverse effects on macroeconomic aggregates and reduce intergenerational mobility, especially among older children. Higher substitutability between public and private investments induces smaller damages in the aggregate economy and the affected children's lifetime income, while exacerbating negative impacts on intergenerational mobility and inequality.

With the rise of digital platforms, individuals’ possibilities to generate income have increased drastically. In this context, we present digital content creation as a form of (digital) entrepreneurship that is characterized by potentially high but also uncertain revenues. As the cost structure of content creation mostly depends on opportunity costs, it stands in contrast to other popular platform-work options. We demonstrate how a stark and unexpected reduction in opportunity costs affects the actual decision to produce digital content. Exploiting the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, we measure how individuals (streamers) who operate on a live streaming platform, respond to a sudden change in external factors while accounting for individual differences in initial conditions. We observe intensified efforts across the spectrum of streamers and find particularly strong reactions from newcomer streamers. We further show that only the most successful newcomers sustain their increased efforts even when opportunity costs start to rise again. Our results are consistent with the initial assumption that an individual’s decision on taking up or intensifying entrepreneurial efforts on digital platforms is strongly affected by their opportunity costs. The results further imply that there is a large potential in individuals who might be willing to become entrepreneurs but are restricted by external conditions. As platform-based digital entrepreneurship offers high flexibility and very low entry barriers, measures for lowering opportunity costs could therefore help to unleash this potential. To maintain a steady influx of new talents, content platforms should increase their support for smaller creators and policymakers should provide easily accessible platforms to ease the way into entrepreneurship for these individuals.

We study the implications of automation for labor market fluctuations in a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) framework that is generalized to incorporate automation decisions. If a job opening is not filled with a worker, a firm can choose to automate that position and use a robot instead of a worker to produce output. The threat of automation strengthens the firm's bargaining power against job seekers in wage negotiations, depressing equilibrium real wages in a business cycle boom. The option of automation also increases the value of a vacancy, raising the incentive for job creation, and thereby amplifying fluctuations in vacancies and unemployment relative to the standard DMP framework. Since automation improves labor productivity while muting wage increases, it implies a countercyclical labor income share, as observed in the data.

Using district level data for urban areas in Java, we reassess the impacts of minimum wages on formal and informal sector employment, unemployment and labour participation. We employ the spatial Du...

This paper analyzes a two-good economy wherein an efficiency wage is paid. Our objective is to determine how outputs, employment, and unemployment will change in response to both exogenous demand and supply shocks. Our principal conclusion is that demand shocks cannot explain decreases in production in both sectors of such an economy. The driver of this and our other conclusions is the role of relative prices in determining supply, and the labor market linkages between sectors.

In the contemporary business reality, marked by unemployment and loose labor markets, workplace abuse is likely to climb as organizations and managers wield increased leverage in the employment relationship. We explore the organizational phenomenon of worker abuse and examine workplace blog accounts from abused workers to uncover shared insights from abused workers. Based on these findings we offer research-based suggestions, implications for practice, and resources for organizations, managers, and workers. Specifically, we advance an A.B.U.S.E. Mitigation Model as a holistic management system for identifying and dealing with workplace abuse.

In this paper we present evidence on the association between unemployment and output in the G7 economies, which has direct implications for the validity of Okun's law. Specifically, we investigate dependence and asymmetry between the residuals of the output and unemployment first difference equations using the copula methodology. We find that dependence between GDP and unemployment disturbances is strong only in USA and France followed by Canada, the UK and Germany. There is no dependence in Italy and Japan. This enhances the validity of Okun's law in the former countries without invalidating it in Italy and Japan, since there is still a negative relationship given by the systematic part of the output-unemployment difference equations estimates. Also, there is asymmetry in the former five countries. Output disturbances are associated with unemployment ones only during recessions, while they are completely disentangled throughout contractions in the US, France, Canada, the UK and Germany. These findings imply that USA and France, and less so Canada, Great Britain and Germany provide the most favorable environment for counter-cyclical economic policies. In these economies, policy makers should react more than output-unemployment dynamic equations dictate in case of output slumps. However, during recoveries in these countries and in Italy as well as Japan during the whole business cycle, authorities ought to base stabilization policies solely on the systematic part of the relation between output and unemployment changes. Our results provide guidance to policy makers in addition to what is suggested by traditional empirical approaches, which focus on the estimation of the deterministic part of the output-unemployment relationship.

Data on population movements can be helpful in designing targeted policy responses to curb epidemic spread. However, it is not clear how to exactly leverage such data and how valuable they might be for the control of epidemics. To explore these questions, we study a spatial epidemic model that explicitly accounts for population movements and propose an optimization framework for obtaining targeted policies that restrict economic activity in different neighborhoods of a city at different levels. We focus on COVID-19 and calibrate our model using the mobile phone data that capture individuals’ movements within New York City (NYC). We use these data to illustrate that targeting can allow for substantially higher employment levels than uniform (city-wide) policies when applied to reduce infections across a region of focus. In our NYC example (which focuses on the control of the disease in April 2020), our main model illustrates that appropriate targeting achieves a reduction in infections in all neighborhoods while resuming 23.1%–42.4% of the baseline nonteleworkable employment level. By contrast, uniform restriction policies that achieve the same policy goal permit 3.92–6.25 times less nonteleworkable employment. Our optimization framework demonstrates the potential of targeting to limit the economic costs of unemployment while curbing the spread of an epidemic. This paper was accepted by Carri Chan, healthcare management.

Lump-sum job displacement policies (e.g., severance pay) are often presented as a better alternative to contingent policies (e.g., unemployment insurance) in the context of developing countries, under the rationale that the former are less harmful to formal employment as they do not incentivize substitution from formal to informal jobs. First, this paper provides original evidence on the employment effects of lump-sum income in the context of a developing country with high labor informality. A regression discontinuity (RD) design, using Brazilian data, shows that a transfer equivalent to fifteen days of earnings (a) increases the duration out of a formal job by 1.9 weeks, (b) reduces monthly earnings in the next job by 1.6%, and (c) reduces total earnings in the formal labor market by 3.6% over a three-year period. Second, the paper studies the impact of a one-month extension in unemployment insurance (UI) on a comparable sample of displaced workers. UI is shown to have a stronger impact on the duration out of a formal job compared with a lump-sum transfer. In addition, a novel exercise matching administrative and survey data shows that 57% of the decrease in formal employment caused by UI is compensated by an increase in the incidence of informal employment. However, workers receiving the UI extension partially recover the initial employment loss over time in such a way that the adverse impact on employment over a three-year period is similar compared with the lump-sum transfer. Moreover, UI is found to be less harmful to reemployment wages, possibly because it improves workers' bargaining power as it offers insurance against the duration of joblessness. Overall, the UI extension is less detrimental to total earnings in the formal labor market over a three-year period. Hence, although these findings indicate that contingent job insurance policies have a stronger impact on the initial duration out of a formal job and indeed incentivize informal employment, they do not support the notion that lump-sum policies are less harmful to formal employment and earnings in the medium term.

The dependence of real income and inequality on changes in factor abundance, total factor productivity, factor bias, the relative cost of capital goods and the progressivity of the tax system are quantified using an elemental general equilibrium model with three households. Observed declines in low-skill labour shares are shown to have been generic in the OECD and to have been responsible for most of the increase in US inequality between 1990 and 2016. The widely anticipated future twist away from low-skill labour toward capital is then examined, in combination with expected changes in population and its skill composition. With downward rigidity of low-skill wages the potential is identified for unemployment to rise to extraordinarily high levels. Productivity growth at twice the pace since 1990 is shown to limit this, though it does not slow the concentration of income. The superior policy response is shown to be a generalization of the US “earned income tax credit” system, with financing from taxes on consumption, rather than capital income.

We investigate whether pandemic-induced contagion disamenities and income effects arising due to COVID-related unemployment adversely affected real estate prices of one- or two-family owner-occupied properties across New York City (NYC). First, OLS hedonic results indicate that greater COVID case numbers are concentrated in neighborhoods with lower-valued properties. Second, we use a repeat-sales approach for the period 2003 to 2020, and we find that both the possibility of contagion and pandemic-induced income effects adversely impacted home sale prices. Estimates suggest sale prices fell by roughly $60,000 or around 8% in response to both of the following: 1,000 additional infections per 100,000 residents; and a 10-percentage point increase in unemployment in a given Modified Zip Code Tabulation Area (MODZCTA). These price effects were more pronounced during the second wave of infections. Based on cumulative MODZCTA infection rates through 2020, the estimated COVID-19 price discount ranged from approximately 1% to 50% in the most affected neighborhoods, and averaged 14%. The contagion effect intensified in the more affluent, but less densely populated NYC neighborhoods, while the income effect was more pronounced in the most densely populated neighborhoods with more rental properties and greater population shares of foreign-born residents. This disparity implies the pandemic may have been correlated with a wider gap in housing wealth in NYC between homeowners in lower-priced and higher-priced neighborhoods., Comment: 38 pages, 5 tables, 3 figures, Revised 1/27/2022

We analyze involuntary unemployment based on consumers’ utility maximization and firms’ profit maximization behavior with ongoing nominal wage rate decline. We consider a three-periods overlapping generations (OLG) model with a childhood period as well as younger and older periods under monopolistic competition with increasing, decreasing or constant returns to scale technology. When there exists involuntary unemploymnet, the nominal wage rate may decline. We examine the existenbce of involuntary unemployment in that model with ongoing mominal wage rate decline (or deflation). Even if the nominal wage rate declines, we have a steady state with involuntary unemployment and constant output and employment. We need budget deficit or budget surplus to maintain the steady state depending on whether real balance effect is positive or negative. Also we examine the possibility to achieve full-employment by fiscal policy.

This paper exploits cross-sectional variation at the level of U.S. counties to generate real-time forecasts for the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The forecasting models are trained on data covering the period 2000–2016, using high-dimensional variable selection techniques. Our county-based approach contrasts the literature that focuses on national and state level data but uses longer time periods to train their models. The paper reports forecasts of popular and electoral college vote outcomes and provides a detailed ex-post evaluation of the forecasts released in real time before the election. It is shown that all of these forecasts outperform autoregressive benchmarks. A pooled national model using One-Covariate-at-a-time-Multiple-Testing (OCMT) variable selection significantly outperformed all models in forecasting the U.S. mainland national vote share and electoral college outcomes (forecasting 236 electoral votes for the Republican party compared to 232 realized). This paper also shows that key determinants of voting outcomes at the county level include incumbency effects, unemployment, poverty, educational attainment, house price changes, and international competitiveness. The results are also supportive of myopic voting: economic fluctuations realized a few months before the election tend to be more powerful predictors of voting outcomes than their long-horizon analogs.

Leveraging the increasing availability of ”big data” to inform forecasts of labor market activity is an active, yet challenging, area of research. Often, the primary difficulty is finding credible ways with which to consistently identify key elasticities necessary for prediction. To illustrate, we utilize a state-level event-study focused on the costliest hurricanes to hit the U.S. mainland since 2004 in order to estimate the elasticity of initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims with respect to search intensity, as measured by Google Trends. We show that our hurricane-driven Google Trends elasticity leads to superior real-time forecasts of initial UI claims relative to other commonly used models. Our approach is also amenable to forecasting both at the state and national levels, and is shown to be well-calibrated in its assessment of the level of uncertainty for its out-of-sample predictions during the Covid-19 pandemic.

This paper studies job search behavior in the midst of a pandemic recession. We use long-running panel data from the Netherlands (LISS) and complement the core survey with our own COVID-specific module, conducted in June 2020. The survey provides data on the job search effort in terms of the number of applications of employed as well as unemployed respondents. We estimate an empirical model of job search over the business cycle over the period 2008–2019 to explore the gap between predicted and actual job search behavior in 2020. We find that job search during the pandemic recession differs strongly from previous downturns. The unemployed search significantly less than what we would normally observe during a recession of this size. For the employed, the propensity to search is even greater than what we would expect, but those who do search make significantly fewer job applications. Expectations about the duration of the pandemic seem to play a key role in explaining job search effort for the unemployed in 2020. Furthermore, employed individuals whose work situation has been affected by COVID-19 are searching more actively for a new job.

We examine the immediate effects and bounce-back from six modern health crises: 1968 Flu, SARS (2003), H1N1 (2009), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014), and Zika (2016). Time-series models for a large cross-section of countries indicate that real GDP growth falls by around three percentage points in affected countries relative to unaffected countries in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth is rapid, but output is still below pre-shock level five years later. Unemployment for less educated workers is higher and exhibits more persistence, and there is significantly greater persistence in female unemployment than male. The negative effects on GDP and unemployment are felt less in countries with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care. Affected countries' consumption declines, investment drops sharply, and international trade plummets. Bounce-back in these expenditure categories is also rapid but not by enough to restore pre-shock trends. Furthermore, indirect effects on own-country GDP from affected trading partners are significant for both the initial GDP decline and the positive bounce back. We discuss why our estimates are a lower bound for the global economic effects of COVID-19 and compare contours of the current pandemic to the historical episodes.

In the US, almost half of unemployment spells end through recall. In this paper, we show that the probability of being recalled is much higher among unemployment benefit recipients than non-recipients. We argue that a large part of the observed difference in recall shares is accounted for by the design of the unemployment insurance financing scheme characterized by an experience rating system. We develop a search and matching model with different unemployment insurance status, endogenous separations, recalls and new hires. We quantify what would have been the labor market under alternative financing scheme. In the absence of the experience rating, the hiring and separations would have been higher in the long run and more volatile. Experience rating system contributes significantly to the difference in recalls between the recipients and the non-recipients.

As of 2016, Medicaid accounted for nearly 20% of state general fund budgets. Optional Medicaid services such as podiatry are often subject to cost-cutting measures in periods of economic downturn, as was the case in the wake of the 2007 financial crisis. Although the cuts were intended as a cost-saving measure, research indicates that they had the opposite effect. The restriction and limitation of these services during the Great Recession resulted in both poorer health outcomes for beneficiaries, and poorer financial outcomes for state Medicaid programs. With states citing record levels of unemployment as of April of 2020 and projecting significant declines in annual revenue in 2021, the economic conditions resulting from the coronavirus disease of 2019 pandemic are likely to rival those of the Great Recession. Given the historical precedent for restricting or eliminating optional Medicaid services as a cost-saving measure, it is likely that podiatric services will once again come under scrutiny. Previous efforts by state-level podiatric societies have proven successful in lobbying for the reinstatement of coverage under Medicaid by conveying evidence of the negative outcomes associated with elimination to stakeholders. The specialty must once again engage policymakers by drawing on evidence gleaned and lessons learned from past cuts of optional Medicaid services to avert counterproductive coverage restrictions intended to mitigate the financial impact of the coronavirus disease of 2019 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates how healthcare seeking for oneself and “healthcare work” for family—constellations that include the continuation of health insurance, access to formal medical care, and medication adherence—change during a period of unemployment. BACKGROUND: “Intensive mothering” norms that promote selfless caregiving may discourage women’s (but not men’s) engagement in own healthcare seeking behavior. Breadwinning norms may oblige men (but not women) to provide income and other resources, including health insurance. METHOD: This paper relies on data from 100 in-depth interviews with unemployed men and women conducted from 2013 to 2015. An iterative coding process guided data analysis; themes and patterns were evaluated to determine their importance across the data. RESULTS: After a job loss, many women (but few men) stopped seeking previously maintained healthcare for themselves. In contrast, some men rejected obligations to provide health insurance for their family. Moreover, the majority of women (but few men) discussed the prioritization of family in their healthcare decision-making. CONCLUSION: The intersection of financial inequalities and changing gender norms in healthcare seeking and family healthcare work placed a unique toll on women’s health. IMPLICATIONS: These findings expand current understanding of how gender functions as a primary frame and how these frames change, suggesting that gender beliefs about family responsibilities extend to healthcare seeking and family healthcare work and are constrained by social class, even as gender frames change to reshape men’s obligations to provide health insurance.

We investigate whether economic conditions at labor market entry predict long-term differences in law graduate earnings. We find that unemployment levels at graduation continue to predict law earnings premiums within 4 years after graduation for earners at the high end and middle of the distribution. However, the relation fades as law graduates gain experience and the difference in lifetime earnings is moderate. This suggests that earnings figures from After the JD II and III -- which track law graduates who passed the bar exam in 2000 -- are likely generalizable to other law cohorts because these studies are outside the window when graduation conditions predict differences in subsequent earnings.Outcomes data available prior to matriculation do not predict unemployment or starting salaries at graduation. Earnings premiums are not predicted by BLS projected job openings. While changes in cohort size predict changes in the percent of law graduates practicing law, we find little evidence that changes in cohort size predict changes in earnings. This suggests that law graduates who switch to other occupations when law cohort sizes increase are not hurt financially by larger cohorts. For medium to high earning graduates, successfully timing law school predicts a higher value of a law degree ex-post, but simulations show that no strategy for ex-ante timing is readily available.This article has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Empirical Legal Studies.A powerpoint presentation of an earlier version of this article is available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2612634.

We study the effects of a universal child benefit on fertility, identifying separately the effects driven by conceptions and abortions. We focus on a generous lump-sum maternity allowance that was introduced in Spain in 2007 and cancelled in 2010. Using administrative, population-level data, we create a panel data set of the 50 Spanish provinces, with monthly data on birth and abortion rates between 2000 and 2017. Our identification is based on the timing of the introduction and cancellation of the policy (both its announcement and implementation), from which we infer when the effects on abortions and births can be expected. We find that the introduction of the policy led to a 3% increase in birth rates, due to both a decrease in abortions and an increase in conceptions. The announcement of the cancellation of the policy led to a transitory increase in birth rates of 4% just before the cancellation was implemented, driven by a short-term drop in abortions. The cancellation then led to a 6% drop in birth rates. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that the positive fertility effect of the benefit introduction was driven by high-skilled parents, while the negative impact of the cancellation was larger among low-skilled and out-of-labor-force parents, and in lower income, higher unemployment regions. We also find suggestive evidence that the child benefit had both a timing effect (“tempo†), so that some women had children earlier, and a level effect (“quantum†), where some women had more children than they would have had otherwise.

Background Sexual minority women consume both alcohol and tobacco at higher rates than heterosexual women. However, various sociodemographic and cultural factors associated with these practices among sexual minority women in Australia are not well understood, nor are the factors associated with seeking alcohol-related support. Methods This study utilised data from cisgender sexual minority women respondents of Private Lives 3: a national, online, cross-sectional survey of the health and wellbeing of LGBTIQ adults in Australia aged 18+ conducted in 2019. Multivariable analyses were performed to identify co-existing smoking and alcohol use, sociodemographic factors associated with smoking, alcohol consumption and seeking alcohol-related support. Results Of 2,647 sexual minority women respondents, 16.90% were currently smoking tobacco, 7.67% smoking tobacco daily and 60.50% reported potentially risky patterns of alcohol consumption. Tobacco and potentially risky alcohol consumption were found to frequently co-occur. Women who identified as queer were more likely than lesbian identifying women to currently smoke tobacco and to smoke tobacco daily. Tobacco consumption was associated with increased age, unemployment, low-mid range income and secondary-school education, while potential risky drinking was associated with living in outer urban or rural areas and being Australian born . Self-reporting having struggled with alcohol in the past twelve months was associated with residential location. Less than 3% of the sample has sought help for alcohol use. Seeking support was more likely as women aged, and with potentially risky drinking, and much more likely with self-perceived struggles with alcohol. Conclusions The findings highlight the need for future alcohol and tobacco use health promotion strategies focussing on sexual minority women to attend to within group differences that relate to risk of higher consumption. They also highlight the need for approaches that empower sexual minority women to self-identify when they are struggling with alcohol use and encourage seeking support with organisations that are affirming of sexual minority women.

This paper analyses the impact of economic complexity on the labour market using annual data on OECD countries for the period 1985-2008 and averaged data over the period 1990-2010 for 70 developed and developing countries with a large number of controls. We show that moving to higher levels of economic sophistication of exported goods leads to less unemployment and more employment, revealing that economic complexity does not induce job loss. Our findings remain robust across alternative econometric specifications. Furthermore, we place the spotlight on the link between products' embodied knowledge (sophistication) and labour market outcomes at the micro-level. We build a product-level index that attaches a product to the average level of unemployment (or employment) in the countries that export it. With this index, we illustrate how the development of sophisticated products is associated with changes in the labour market and show that the economic sophistication of exported goods captures information about the economy's job creation and destruction., Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 32 (1), ISSN:1043-8599, ISSN:1476-8364

The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 established the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program within the United States. TANF mandated 60-month lifetime time limits for federal cash assistance dollars. Because states reserve the right to set their own stricter or more generous time limits, the 60-month lifetime limit did not bind in all cases. In recent years, however, several states imposed TANF time limits for the first time or made existing time limits more stringent. Using administrative and survey data, I find that stricter time limits decrease annual TANF participation by 22 percent and annual transfer income by 6 percent. Consistent with binding TANF work requirements, widespread unemployment, and increases in employment among those on the welfare caseload, stricter time limits do not tend to increase employment or earnings among single mothers in states without generous TANF programs at baseline. Evidence suggests that macroeconomic conditions and the labor market potential of TANF recipients play large roles in determining labor-supply effects of decreased TANF generosity.

We examine how the presence of a firm’s political connections in a candidate location affects the firm’s likelihood of choosing that location over unconnected but otherwise comparable ones to establish a new subsidiary. First, because of various benefits that political connections can generate for firms, all else equal, firms are more likely to choose the locations in which they have connections with local political leaders. Second, this effect is dampened when local economic conditions may drive local politicians to demand that connected firms engage in economically inefficient but politically desirable tasks, such as hiring superfluous labor. As a result, firms are less likely to choose a politically connected location that also suffers from higher unemployment. Moreover, this dampening effect exists (and becomes stronger) when the connected politicians hold political positions that shoulder greater responsibility for resolving local unemployment issues. Using data on all new subsidiaries established by Chinese listed firms from 2003 to 2009, we obtain empirical evidence that corroborates the hypotheses. Therefore, whether and how firms use their political connections in making location choice is strategic in that it is highly dependent on the economic and political context.

This paper examines the relationship between labour market conditions and wage dynamics by exploiting a unique dataset of more than one million online job vacancies. We find a weak trade-off between aggregate wage inflation and unemployment. This link becomes more evident when the wage inflation is disaggregated at the sectoral and occupational level. The examination, using vacancy-level data, shows a negative correlation between offered wage and unemployment. The degree of wage elasticity, however, is different across regions and skill segments. Our findings suggest the importance of micro-level data's unique dimensions in examining the wage – unemployment relationship.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a more severe labour market crisis in 2020 than witnessed during the 2009 global financial crisis. Reflecting the effects of lockdown measures, which has been the main cause of damage to labour markets, the deepest impacts have been found in middle-income economies, while certain sectors, such as accommodation and food services, and groups, especially young women, have been more negatively affected over 2020. Contrary to the adjustment process during previous shocks, the COVID-19 crisis has resulted in a greater rise in inactivity than unemployment. Policy support needs to be maintained to avoid an unequal recovery.

The retention of international graduates has been deemed a viable approach to redressing skill shortages in many countries mainly owing to their local academic credentials. Notwithstanding, there is growing, albeit fragmented, evidence that international graduates who stayed on after course completion struggle to integrate into the host labour market. Building on this evidence, this study examines patterns, trends and changes in the labour market outcomes of international graduates who remained in Australia at four months after course completion between 1998 and 2015. Drawing on the Australian Graduate Survey, this study shows that the share of international graduates who stayed on with the intention to work more than doubled during this period. The more recent cohorts, however, tended to come from non-English-speaking backgrounds, stay on with temporary visas and lack local work experience, all of which have been linked to poorer outcomes in the Australian labour market. In fact, this study reveals a clear trend of increasing economic inactivity, unemployment, part-time employment and qualification mismatch amongst international graduates who remained in Australia over the years. The worsening labour market outcomes highlight the vulnerability of international graduates against a backdrop of socio-political and economic changes in Australia. These findings point to a need to review and strengthen existing policies and interventions to help international graduates integrate into the host labour market.

This article investigates the employment effect of short-time work in the Netherlands during the Great Recession (2009–2011). Short-time work was introduced during the period as a special arrangement with the aim of reducing unemployment hikes by offering firms the possibility of adjusting the working time of specialised workers rather than adjust the size of their workforce. The authors focus on the effect of short-time work at the individual level of the worker and study whether short-time programme participants in surviving firms had a lower job turnover rate and transition rate to unemployment compared to workers who did not participate in the programme. Furthermore, the authors study whether the flexibility policies of the firm had a substantial influence on the effectiveness of short-time work in protecting workers from unemployment. Specifically, they investigate whether the effect of short-time work is related to the intensiveness of its use by the firm and the extensiveness of the use of external flexibility arrangements – i.e. temporary contracts and temporary agency workers – by the firm. For this purpose, the authors apply a discrete-time survival model using a unique dataset with monthly register data from Statistics Netherlands. Participants in the short-time work programme are compared with non-participant workers from firms that used short-time work and workers from firms that did not make use of the programme. The findings indicate that, in surviving firms, short-time work had a positive effect: the risk of unemployment and job separation is, in most cases, lower for short-time work participants than non-participants. Short-time work is most effective in protecting workers from unemployment in firms that extended the use of the programme to many workers and for a relatively small number of hours, and that made either moderate use of temporary agency workers or extensive use of fixed-term contracts.

BACKGROUND: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with substantial clinical burden as individuals transition to adulthood, including higher rates of comorbidities, mortality, incarceration, and psychiatric hospitalizations than in individuals without ADHD. These higher rates likely contribute to substantial economic burden as well. OBJECTIVE: To provide a comprehensive evaluation of the economic burden associated with ADHD in the US adult population. METHODS: Direct health care costs were obtained by using claims data from the IBM MarketScan Research Databases (January 1, 2017, through December 31, 2018). Direct non-health care costs and indirect costs were estimated on the basis of the literature and government publications. Excess costs incurred by adults with ADHD during 2018 were evaluated from a societal perspective; per-patient costs were extrapolated to the national level. RESULTS: An estimated 8.7 million adults live with ADHD in the United States, resulting in a total societal excess cost attributable to ADHD of $122.8 billion ($14,092 per adult). Excess costs of unemployment ($66.8 billion; 54.4%) comprised the largest proportion of the total, followed by productivity loss ($28.8 billion; 23.4%) and health care services ($14.3 billion; 11.6%). CONCLUSIONS: ADHD in adults is associated with substantial economic burden. DISCLOSURES: This study was funded by Otsuka Pharmaceutical Development & Commercialization, Inc. (Otsuka). The study sponsor contributed to and approved the study design, participated in the interpretation of data, and reviewed and approved the manuscript. Schein is an employee of Otsuka. Gagnon-Sanschagrin, Davidson, Kinkead, Cloutier, Guerin, and Lefebvre are employees of Analysis Group, Inc., a consulting company that provided paid consulting services to Otsuka to develop and conduct this study and write the manuscript. Adler has received research support from Shire/Takeda, Sunovion, and Otsuka; consulting fees from Bracket, Shire/Takeda, Sunovion, Otsuka, the State University of New York (SUNY), the National Football League (NFL), and Major League Baseball (MLB); and royalty payments (as inventor) from New York University (NYU) for license of adult ADHD scales and training materials. Childress has received research support from Allergan, Takeda/Shire, Emalex, Akili, Ironshore, Arbor, Aevi Genomic Medicine, Neos Therapeutics, Otsuka, Pfizer, Purdue, Rhodes, Sunovion, Tris, KemPharm, Supernus, and the US Food and Drug Administration; was on the advisory board of Takeda/Shire, Akili, Arbor, Cingulate, Ironshore, Neos Therapeutics, Otsuka, Pfizer, Purdue, Adlon, Rhodes, Sunovion, Tris, Supernus, and Corium; received consulting fees from Arbor, Ironshore, Neos Therapeutics, Purdue, Rhodes, Sunovion, Tris, KemPharm, Supernus, Corium, Jazz, and Tulex Pharma; received speaker fees from Takeda/Shire, Arbor, Ironshore, Neos Therapeutics, Pfizer, Tris, and Supernus; and received writing support from Takeda/Shire, Arbor, Ironshore, Neos Therapeutics, Pfizer, Purdue, Rhodes, Sunovion, and Tris. Part of the material in this study was presented as a poster at the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) 2021 Virtual Meeting; May 17-20, 2021.

I interpret the empirical evidence on government spending multipliers using an equilibrium model of unemployment in which workers are not fully insured against the risk of job loss. Consumption of resources by the government affects aggregate spending along two margins: (i) an intensive margin owing to a fall in household wealth and (ii) an extensive margin that accounts for growth in the working population. At insurance levels below a certain threshold, the positive effects of (ii) dominate the negative effects of (i), leading to multipliers for private consumption and output that exceed zero and one. Similar results appear in a quantitative version of the model scaled to match estimates from micro data on the consumption cost of unemployment.

Abstract. Background: Unemployment is a well-documented risk factor for suicide. Findings from a number of studies suggest that government policy plays a crucial role in mediating the unemployment–suicide relationship. Aims: Our review was designed to assess whether government policies aimed at managing unemployment can moderate the impact of unemployment on suicide and self-harm. Method: A systematic search of the Medline, ProQuest, Scopus, and Web of Science databases was conducted. All original, English-language, peer-reviewed studies examining the impact of unemployment policy on rates of suicide or self-harm were eligible for inclusion. Results: Six unique studies were identified, each using an ecological design and suicide deaths as the outcome. Three of five studies looking at unemployment benefits found a negative association with suicide rates. Studies examining the impact of active unemployment policy and employment protection legislation found evidence of beneficial effects. The effects of the policies were small and had particular benefit in reducing suicide rates among men. Limitations: The ecological designs used may limit conclusions around causality. It is unclear whether the findings generalize to those in lower- and middle-income countries. Conclusion: The findings suggest that unemployment policies can mitigate the relationship between unemployment and suicide, particularly among men.

The study empirically contributes to the discussion on the effects of start-up subsidies for unemployed individuals as a part of the active labour market policy. The article provides insights into the survival and performance of the subsidized businesses in the Czech Republic. The study follows up cohorts of self-employed individuals that were supported during years 2009–2017. The obtained findings show that a vast majority of the supported businesses were still officially active 2 years after the allocation of the start-up subsidy, and even later. The firm-level data further relieve that most of the individuals starting a business out of unemployment stay solo (only less than four per cent of self-employed individuals employ besides themselves at least one employee) and the economic outcomes of the subsidized businesses, measured as annual turnover, are rather modest. The empirical results further showed that higher intensity of public support is negatively associated with business closure and positively with employment and turnover categories. The study concludes that the start-up subsidy for unemployed succeeded in activating unemployed individuals to pursue an economic activity, although further research concerning other outcome variables such as personal income, job satisfaction and well-being is needed.