Search

We examine how consumption responds to changes in sentiment regarding government economic policy using cross-sectional variation across counties in the ideological predisposition of constituents. When the incumbent party loses a presidential election, individuals in counties more ideologically predisposed toward the losing party experience a dramatic and discontinuous relative decrease in optimism on government economic policy. Using the interaction of constituent ideology in a county with election timing as an instrument, we estimate the impact of government policy sentiment shocks on consumer spending, and we find a very small effect that cannot be statistically distinguished from zero. The small magnitude of the effect is estimated precisely. For example, we can reject the hypothesis that pessimism regarding government economic policy effectiveness during the Great Recession had as large an effect on consumption as the negative shock to household net worth coming from the collapse in house prices.

The planning fallacy is at play in projects when optimism bias and/or strategic misrepresentation are present. We examine the cost performance of approximately US$ 6.5 billion worth of social infrastructure projects that were procured in Hong Kong and specifically the differences between their final accounts and the various types of estimates that were prepared prior to construction. We focus on the (honest) planning fallacy and hence aim to determine whether estimates are more optimistic than actual costs. Our data shows that 43% of projects incurred a cost underrun from their contract award. We therefore infer that at best 57% of projects may be explained by the presence of the planning fallacy. Based on our findings, we argue that optimism and pessimism bias coexist. Likewise, the planning fallacy and competing explanations can simultaneously account for cost deviations in social infrastructure projects. We submit that the prevalence of the planning fallacy has been exaggerated and hence provide an explanation as to why this has occurred. We finally suggest there is a need for additional empirical work to test the claim that the planning fallacy is the underlying cause of cost overruns and thus the best “theory” to explain “how projects work.”

We analyse a long panel of households’ stock market beliefs to gain insights into the nature of the levels, dynamics, and informativeness of these expectations. In a first step, we classify respondents into one of five groups based on their beliefs data alone. In a second step, we estimate models of expectations at the group level so that belief levels, volatility, and response to information can vary freely across groups. At opposite extremes in terms of optimism we identify pessimists who expect substantially negative returns and financially sophisticated individuals whose expectations are close to the historical average. Two groups expect average returns around zero and differ only in how they respond to information: Extrapolators who become more optimistic following positive information and mean-reverters for whom the opposite is the case. The final group is characterised by its members being unable or unwilling to quantify their beliefs about future returns.

Common path pessimism removal (CPPR) is imperative for eliminating redundant pessimism during static timing analysis (STA). However, turning on CPPR can significantly increase the analysis runtime by 10-100× in large designs. Recent years have seen much research on improving the algorithmic efficiencies of CPPR, but most are architecturally constrained by either the speed-accuracy trade-off or design-specific pruning heuristics. In this paper, we introduce a novel CPPR algorithm that is provably good and practically efficient. We have evaluated our algorithm on large industrial designs and demonstrated promising performance over the current state-of-the-art. As an example, our algorithm outperforms the baseline by 36-135× faster when generating the top-10K post-CPPR critical paths on a million-gate design. At the extreme, our algorithm with one core is even 4-16× faster than the baseline with 8 cores. Our algorithm also outperforms the commercial STA engine PrimeTime up to 26.99× faster. By exploiting parallelism within the circuit graph, we can reduce the memory consumption of our algorithm by 30%, with only 3% runtime increase.

Background Despite considerable improvements in outcomes for children with short bowel syndrome (SBS), many clinicians remain pessimistic about long-term quality of life (QoL) for this population. Methods The validated FaMM tool was used to measure parent-perceived impact of the child's condition on child and family life. Partnered disease-specific survey questions relevant to child's overall wellbeing and family function were additionally completed and reported. The cross-sectional surveys were distributed to a convenience sample of parents of children with SBS. Child and family wellbeing were described and compared across child age group and involvement of an intestinal rehabilitation program (IRP). Multivariate regression analyses investigated associations between outcomes and IRP management. Open-ended responses were analyzed to investigate perceived impact of the child's SBS on the parent. Results Seventeen parents completed both surveys; 71% perceived child QoL as higher today than what they had originally been told to expect. Child daily life and family difficulty scores suggest parents perceived both to be fairly "normal". While acknowledging effort invested in condition management, parents perceived high competence in managing their child's condition; 56% perceived personal growth resulting from their child's SBS journey. IRP management was associated with better child daily life (4.11, p = 0.015), family difficulty (-4.85, p = 0.048), and family management ability (4.28, p = 0.014) scores. Conclusions Many parents perceive child and family life with SBS to be fairly "normal", manage their child's care with great competence, and report personal growth because of their child's SBS journey. Additional research inclusive of diverse patient and parent backgrounds is warranted. Level of evidence prognosis study; Level IV.

Experimental studies in behavioral finance historically have confirmed that subjects are highly influenced by reference points when making economic decisions. A recent study by Baucells, Weber and Welfens (2011) analyzed the dynamics of reference price formation using experimental methods with subjects forming reference prices for stocks based on observed price sequences. Their study helps to clarify behavioral effects of past prices on reference price formation but it does not consider contextual information. We extend the BWW study by adding market price information as background to the experiment, and we investigate how this additional information affects reference point formation and updating. Our overarching hypothesis is that if the market background information has no impact then it should not alter the results of BWW; otherwise, the additional market information should be an explanatory variable for the reference point. Our results confirm the hypothesis that market information matters. We also investigate the impact of pessimism and optimism on reference prices by the combining the BWW framework with a model of disappointment aversion and anticipatory feelings developed by Gollier and Muerman (2010). Our study fills a void in the literature by providing new evidence on the impact of contextual market information on reference point formation in an investment setting.

By applying machine learning to the accurate and cost-effective classification of photos based on sentiment, we introduce a daily market-level investor sentiment index (Photo Pessimism) obtained from a large sample of news photos. Consistent with behavioral models, Photo Pessimism predicts market return reversals and trading volume. The relation is strongest among stocks with high limits to arbitrage and during periods of elevated fear. We examine whether Photo Pessimism and pessimism embedded in news text act as complements or substitutes for each other in predicting stock returns and find evidence that the two are substitutes.

In this paper, we point out that Lin’s general neighborhood systems-based rough set model is an extension of Qian’s optimistic rough set model, and thus called optimistic general neighborhood systmes-based rough set model. Then we present a new rough set model based on general neighborhood systems, and prove that it is an extension of Qian’s pessimistic rough set model. Later, we study the basic properties of the proposed pessimistic rough sets, and define the serial, reflexive, symmetric, transitive and Euclidean conditions for general neighborhood systems, and explore the further properties of related rough sets. Furthermore, we apply the pessimistic general neighborhood systems-based rough set model in the research of incomplete information system, and build a three-way decision model based on it. A simple practical example to show the effectiveness of our model is also presented.

A vast literature has accumulated on the developmental state since its introduction to scholarship in the 1980s. Despite many criticisms, developmental state is still the most viable alternative to the orthodoxy in the eyes of many. This article analytically investigates the sources of pessimism and optimism in the building of 21st century developmental states. The study notes that although there are sound reasons to be pessimistic regarding the emergence of successful cases in the new millennium, there are also reasonable grounds to be optimistic. A complex dynamic within and between domestic and international spheres determines the outcome, but there is no reason to disregard prematurely or embrace indisputably the developmental state construct. Key words: Political economy, Developmental state, Economic development. JEL: O20, O57, P16.

Background/Aim. Among the various factors that after lumbar microdiscectomy can influence on continued postoperative back pain and/or leg pain and functional disability are gender, depression and pessimism. The aim of this study was to determine the correlations between these factors. Methods. The research was conducted after microdiscectomy on 198 patients (95 men and 103 women), with mean age 50.20 ± 10.26 years. For examinations were used the following questionnaires: for assessment of pain and its intensity and character - PainDETECT Test; for functional disability - Oswestry Low Back Pain Disability Questionnaire; for the presence and degree of depression - Beck Depression Inventory II; and questionnaire for the assessment of personal expectations (pessimistic / optimistic) about the treatment results. These assessments were carried out after microdiscectomy in the terms: just before rehabilitation treatment, one month later and then 3 and 6 months after microdiscectomy. Results. On the pain and functional disability significant negative influences had depression (p

There is much pessimism as to the current state of Sino-American relations, especially since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020. Such pessimism has led to some scholars and commentators asserting that the Sino-American relationship is on the cusp of either a new Cold War or, even more alarmingly, something akin to the Peloponnesian War (via a Thucydides Trap) whereby the United States might take pre-emptive measures against China. This article rejects such analogizing and argues that, due to important technological advancements found at the intersection of the digital and fourth industrial revolutions, most of the real competition in the relationship is now occurring in cyberspace, especially with regards to the aim of asserting narratives of truth. Two key narrative battlegrounds that have raged since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic are examined: where was the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic? and who has had the most successful response to the COVID-19 pandemic?. This article shows that Sino-American competition in cyberspace over asserting their narratives of truth (related to the COVID-19 pandemic) is fierce and unhinged. Part of what is driving this competition is the challenging domestic settings politicians and officials find themselves in both China and the United States, thus, the competing narratives being asserted by both sides are predominately for domestic audiences. However, given that cyberspace connects states with foreign publics more intimately, the international aspect of this competition is also important and could result in further damage to the already fragile Sino-American relationship. Yet, whether this competition will bleed into the real world is far from certain and, because of this, doomsaying via historical analogies should be avoided.

By linking sell-side equity analysts to their deed records and LinkedIn profiles, I show that analysts with higher exposure to negative wealth shocks issue more pessimistic and less accurate forecasts. The effects are stronger when analysts have higher leverage in their homes and face career concerns. I also find that stocks recommended by exposed analysts underperform those of non-exposed counterparts, by an amount that is significant and economically large in magnitude. The results remain robust to unobserved skill differences, the potential endogeneity of housing prices, the self-selection of analysts into neighborhoods with certain traits, and placebo tests where housing wealth shocks are randomized across analysts. Collectively, this study provides new evidence on if and how personal wealth shocks impact analysts' work productivity and forecast behavior.

Meyoucycle (2016) was the eagerly awaited result of a collaboration between choreographer Eleanor Bauer and composer Chris Peck. The characters of this dance and song–cycle have developed tactics to withstand the exploitative demands of neoliberal semiocapitalism; the creative team deployed performative and dramaturgical tactics for the same purpose.

Reliability allocation is a very important problem during early design and development phases of a system. There are several reliability allocation techniques which are used to achieve the target reliability. The feasibility of objectives (FOO) technique is one of them that is widely used to perform system reliability allocation. But this technique has two fundamental shortcomings. The first is the measurement scale and the second is that it does not consider the order weight of the reliability allocation factors. The prioritization of the factors is also an important topic in decision making. Practically, all factors in multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) are not in the same priority level. Hence, in decision making situation, it is usual for decision makers to consider different priority factors. So, considering the prioritization of the factors, a reliability allocation method is proposed here to overcome the shortcomings of the FOO technique. Also, a case study on reliability allocation in airborne radar system is considered here to verify the efficiency of the proposed approach. Finally, the results are calculated in different optimistic and pessimistic view point and compared with the FOO technique. This comparison exhibits the advantages and supremacy of the proposed approach.

Ta-Nehisi Coates’ book Between the World and Me is written as a letter to his son, but serves many roles: a collection of personal experiences as an African American man, a history of black people’s exploitation and oppression in America, and advice for navigating the country and its historical, systematic, expansive and deeply embeddedd racism. Readers and critics have noted the pessimism of the work, as Coates writes pragmatically and coldly with no optimism about the potential to end the racist oppression of black Americans. This essay analyzes Coates’ rejection of hope by parsing through the audiences he addresses and the respective messages underlying his work. First, the essay considers how Coates urges readers to think critically about the hopeful narrative of the American Dream and see how it obscures the racism underlying and determining both white Americans’ economic, political and social successes, as well as the struggles and cyclic obstacles afflicting black American communities. Using literary analysis, the essay argues that Coates’ rebuke of the American dream is meant to be addressed towards white Americans, as they are more susceptible to accepting its tempting and convenient narrative. Coates provides his son and the black American community with a different critique of hope; he shows the futility of maintaining optimism about the achievement of racial equality when that outcome depends on their nation and white peers who demonstrate no interest in ending the racist structures and systems that privilege them. Coates’ argument is clarified in the essay by framing it as a form of literary theorist Lauren Berlant’s conception of cruel optimism. Ultimately, by exploring the nuance in Coates’ pessimistic work, the essay reveals how Coates’ rejection of hope is both an effective message in addressing his various audiences and a justified sentiment, particularly given the high cost of holding on to hope for black Americans.

The article treats the value of economic generosity (usātu) in the Babylonian Dialogue of Pessimism and compares it to almsgiving in the biblical book of Sirach. It attempts to resolve a longstanding obscurity: whether usātu is placed in Marduk’s “ring” (kippatu) or “basket” (qappatu). External evidence suggests that, while both readings have support and a similar theological significance, the reading “basket” (qappatu) is preferable and should be related to the temple quppu, “cash box,” used for collecting donations. The article then addresses the relevance of mortality to the Dialogue’s discussion of doing usātu. Appeal to other Akkadian wisdom literature suggests that doing usātu was connected with a reward of extra life. An analysis of the theological structure of usātu in the Dialogue and Akkadian wisdom literature leads to a comparison with the theology of almsgiving and the heavenly treasury in Ben Sira and other Second Temple Jewish literature.

El trastorno depresivo persistente, es un trastorno afectivo crónico que permanece al menos por dos años en adultos y un año en niños y adolescentes. Los pacientes con este diagnóstico se pueden mostrar pesimistas, regularmente negativos, con bajo o nada sentido del humor, muy pasivos, retraídos, muy críticos hacia sí mismos y también hacia los otros. Los pacientes con este trastorno tienen probabilidades de presentar trastornos de ansiedad generalizada, el cual se caracteriza por presentar preocupación excesiva y continua por asuntos que son desproporcionados a lo que realmente se vive, se percibe constantemente un futuro amenazante, esto es difícil de controlar por la persona e interfiriere en su rutina diaria. Muchas veces estos trastornos pueden ser provenientes de otros enfermedades o trastornos, como, por ejemplo, del estrés post traumático que se desarrolla a raíz de haber vivido o presenciado un acontecimiento traumático como lo es una agresión sexual, estos pacientes a lo largo del tiempo no se sienten mejor, sino más bien estresados o asustados después de que la situación traumática haya concluido, en el siguiente caso clínico se presume que la sintomatología ansiosa y depresiva fue desarrollada a raíz de un trastorno de estrés post traumático cronificado. Palabras clave: trastorno depresivo persistente, ansiedad generalizada, estrés post traumático, terapia cognitivo-conductual.

A profession or trade is a permanent occupation, an activity based on specialized education that someone regularly pursues on the basis of an appropriate qualification, in order to obtain remuneration. Personality is a universe that constantly encourages knowledge, but which can never be exhausted. Goethe believed that the supreme performance of scientific knowledge is the knowledge of man. The idea is justified both by the maximum complexity of the human being and by the fact that "man represents the supreme value for man." Between Nietzsche's pessimism, which states that "man is the animal that can never be defined," and Protagoras' axiological view, that "man is the measure of all things," personality is a global concept, a structure that cannot be defined only by its structural elements. The concept of interest and its implications for human learning and development have an important role in both education and psychology. In a society that continues to transform, social, economic and psychological factors cause profound changes in the sphere of professions and occupations. Therefore, there must be a transition to a training school and an appropriate way so that anyone can meet the requirements in a constantly changing society.

The aim of this article is the reconstruction, analysis and presentation of Henryk Elzenberg’s philosophy of the human being, with particular emphasis on his concept of asceticism. Elzenberg’s philosophical anthropology is based on the pessimistic evaluation of reality, which itself is founded on the negative evaluation of human nature. Human nature is corrupt because of the primary will of humanity, which is selfish and self-seeking and which strives only for utilitarian values. The overcoming of pessimism is possible by the transformation of self-seeking will, and asceticism is a remedy which enables human beings to see and realise true, perfectionist values. Asceticism can overcome basic instincts, which pull human nature down to the animal-like state of being. In Elzenberg’s philosophical anthropology, asceticism creates culture and culture grants humanity to humans, which is a trope similar to the ancient conception of paideia.

Rumination is a transdiagnostic risk factor that appears to be reduced through mindfulness interventions. However, mindfulness mobile apps have not been tested for their effects on rumination, especially among adolescents. Thus, we aimed to test the acceptability and effects of a mindfulness mobile intervention among ruminative adolescents using a within-subjects pretest/posttest design. Participants were 80 adolescents ages 12-15, selected for moderate-to-high rumination (M age = 14.01, SD = .99; 46.2% girls; 86.25% White; 3.75% Hispanic). We asked adolescents to use our mindfulness app 3 times per day for 3 weeks. Participants and parents completed questionnaires at baseline, post-intervention, and 6 and 12 weeks later. Acceptability was assessed by tracking app use and asking adolescents and parents to report on their experiences post-intervention. We assessed repetitive negative thinking (i.e., rumination and worry) and internalizing symptoms via self- and parent-report. The intervention demonstrated acceptability, and there were significant reductions in rumination, worry, anxiety and parent-reported internalizing symptoms post-intervention. Effects on rumination, anxiety and internalizing symptoms persisted throughout the 12-week follow-up with large effect sizes using an intention-to-treat approach. Thus, a brief mindfulness mobile app intervention appeared to be both engaging and helpful in reducing negative repetitive thinking and internalizing symptoms among ruminative adolescents. It will be important to test this intervention in a randomized controlled trial to control for effects of time and attention.

This paper examines how share pledge transactions signal changes in investor sentiment. Based on the investor sentiment model proposed by Gervais and Odean (2001) , we develop an investor sentiment model by incorporating the impact of share pledge transactions on stock prices by linking the signal transmission of the share pledges with investor decision making. Using data from the China stock market from 2014 to 2018, we find that share pledge transactions can lead to emotional bias and consequently affect investment decisions. Specifically, stock market volatility increases with changes in both optimistic and pessimistic investor sentiment bias regarding share pledge transactions. From the perspective of behavioral finance, with the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and the impulse response test, we study the relationship between investor sentiment indicators, including share pledge factors and stock market volatility. Among the investor sentiment indicator components, we find that the composition weights of the share pledge volume and the share pledge ratio are 22.54 %, and 21.49 % respectively. Share pledge transactions have an obvious impact on investor sentiment. The paper also shows that share pledge transactions have an accelerating effect on stock price cyclical fluctuations through the investor sentiment effect. During a stock index crash, such transactions may constitute a potential market factor of instability.

Purpose Although there have been numerous studies investigating the mental health of individuals during the pandemic, a comparison between countries is still scarce in the literature. To explore this gap, the present study aimed to compare the mental health (i.e., anxiety and depression), quality of life (QoL), and optimism/pessimism among individuals from Brazil and Portugal during the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated factors. Method A cross-sectional population-based study was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and Portugal. Data collection was carried out between May and June 2020, using an online form which was sent through social networks. A total of 2069 participants (1156 from Brazil and 913 from Portugal) were included. Depressive symptoms (PHQ-9), Anxiety (GAD-7), optimism/pessimism (Revised Life Orientation Test – LOT), QoL (WHOQOL-Bref), and sociodemographic, health, and social distancing variables were assessed. Data was analyzed using univariate and multivariate models. Results There were remarkable differences between Brazil and Portugal in all outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic, including higher levels of depressive symptoms, anxiety, and optimism for the Brazilian individuals and higher levels of QoL and pessimism for the Portuguese individuals. The following factors were associated with the mental health and QoL in both Brazilian and Portuguese populations: gender, age, being a healthcare professional, and days in social distancing. Conclusion Despite the fact that Brazilians were more optimistic during the COVID-19 pandemic, they had lower levels of mental health and QoL as compared to the Portuguese individuals. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11136-021-03031-9.

The research featured the way time attitude depend on the levels of subjective well-being and optimism. The attitude manifested as temporal freedom, dependence, and infantilism. The authors believe that attitude to one's time can be an indicator of one’s subjective well-being and optimism. The survey included 297 senior students (age 21–22, 154 female subjects) of the Ugra State University (Khanty-Mansiysk) and the Kurgan branch of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (Kurgan). All the participants were citizens of Russia. The study employed a set of methods, including authentic versions of The Scale of Attitude to Time and The Scale of Optimism of Personality, as well as The Scale of Subjective Well-Being adapted by M.V. Sokolova. The study established the interdependence of subjective well-being and optimism with time attitude represented by temporary freedom, dependence, and infantilism. Optimists saw time as a resource for activity and demonstrated no obsession with time management and control. Students with a sense of well-being and optimism had low temporal dependence; those with moderate levels of well-being and optimism had higher levels of temporal dependence; those with low levels of subjective well-being demonstrated high levels of temporal dependence. Time attitude proved to be an effective indicator of subjective well-being. For instance, flexible attitude to time management reflected subjective well-being. Time dependence indicated subjective disadvantage and pessimism. Temporal infantilism, i.e. irrational attitude to time management, was typical of senior students with increased self-esteem, poor selfunderstanding, non- acceptance, and rejection of difficulties.

We examine how adverse local experiences that are uninformative of future returns affect households’ investment behavior in the short term. Using data from a German online brokerage and a survey, we show that retail investors sharply reduce risk taking in response to nearby firm bankruptcies. Adjustments in risk taking occur through immediate and transitory increases in trading, and work through more pessimistic expectations about aggregate stock returns and increased risk aversion. Changes in background risks or wealth effects cannot explain our findings. Extrapolation from local experiences to aggregate expectations is inconsistent with optimal use of full or limited information.

This paper examines whether analysts affected by lunar eclipses issue more pessimistic earnings forecasts. After controlling for the characteristics of analysts, climates, and lunar phases, we find that analyst forecasts made after lunar eclipses are more pessimistic than consensus forecasts. This effect is more pronounced when a lunar eclipse is stronger. Further, we find that nighttime cloud coverage reduces analyst pessimism, while network attention, analyst superstition, natural disasters, and pollution increases pessimism after eclipses. Our paper provides new evidence that lunar eclipse-induced mood leads to pessimistic forecasts made by sell-side analysts.

Background To describe the psychosocial response of the infertile population whose care was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods A web-based cross-sectional survey was administered to 117 infertile patients at our center who had their infertility treatment delayed due to suspension of care at our hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey consisted of 52-question multiple-choice questions including the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) instruments. Characteristics of respondents who "agreed" (strongly agree and agree) that "delaying treatment has permanently impacted my chances at future conception" were compared with participants who "disagreed" (neutral, disagree, and strongly disagree) using Fischer's exact test. Results In total, 79.5% agreed that delaying treatment has permanently impacted their chances at future conception. There were no discernible demographic differences between patients who "agreed" versus "disagreed" with the above statement. The mean LOT-R score was 14.1 (5.1) with an optimism score of 6.8 (2.6) and a pessimism score of 7.3 (2.9). The mean HADS depression score was 5.4 (3.4) with 28.2% reporting scores in the borderline-abnormal to abnormal range. The mean HADS anxiety score was 9.0 (3.9) with 64.6% reporting scores in the borderline-abnormal to abnormal range. Nearly one third of respondents (36.8%) reported wanting to "expedite/be more aggressive with treatment," whereas only 5.1% wanted to postpone treatment. Conclusions Women undergoing ART during the COVID-19 pandemic express significant concern and signs of distress about how delays in care affect their future reproductive potential.

The main aim of the study was to verify the thesis that the US economy is measured against the spectre of secular stagnation by determining the mood of American society using Google Trends. While performing the analysis, the authors used data on the American market for the years 2004-2018. The study comprised 42 entries, including 19 entries from the category “social” and 23 entries from the category “financial”. The analyses do not allow for a clear statement that the US economy is facing the spectre of secular stagnation, but they allow us to formulate the observation that the mood of the society is moderately pessimistic, which undoubtedly translates into economic activity and may be the cause of the persisting economic stagnation.

This paper seeks to examine the unidirectional versus bidirectional Granger causality between investors’ sentiment and momentum strategies. It is based on the full sample Granger causality test and the recent rolling-window bootstrap approach. We also applied a probit model to the extent to which the probability that investors’ sentiment and momentum strategies influence each other. Our results suggest bidirectional Granger causality between investor sentiment and momentum strategy with unstable causality dynamics over time. We find that ADS and VIX positively affect the likelihood that investor sentiment Granger causes momentum strategy and negatively impact the probability that momentum strategy Granger causes investor sentiment. Gold harms the likelihood that investors’ sentiment and momentum strategies affect each other. The research design is unique to combine bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality tests between Sentiment and Momentum to assess investors’ implications in terms of confidence, uncertainty, aggressiveness, or optimism versus Pessimism.

The pessimist predicts that future scientific theories will replace present scientific theories. However, she does not specify when the predicted events will take place, so we do not have the opportunity to blame her for having made a false prediction, although we might have the chance to praise her for having made a true prediction. Her prediction contrasts with the astronomer’s prediction. The astronomer specifies when the next solar eclipse will happen, so we have both the chance to blame her for having made a false prediction and the chance to praise her for having made a true prediction. The pessimist’s prediction remains unvirtuous until she specifies when scientific revolutions will occur. This critical point applies no less to the selectivist’s prediction.

Depression Index (DEPI) is one of the specific Rorschach Index developed as a part of the Comprehensive System. There has been a lot of research on Depression Index which identifies individuals who may be emotionally distraught, cognitively pessimistic, lethargic or self defeating. However, there are evidences which show inconsistent results about the depression index when they are used for the purpose of diagnosis of depressive disorder. The main aim of this paper is to study the Depression Index in patients suffering from moderate and severe level of depression. The sample consisted of 30 patients with depression and 30 normal subjects selected by using purposive sampling technique. Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) was administered on the patient group to assess the severity of depressive symptoms and Rorschach Inkblot Test was administered on patients and normal subjects to assess the structure of the personality. General Health Questionnaire-12 (GHQ) was administered as a screening tool in the group of normal control subjects. Results show difference on Depression Index variables among the two groups. No significant correlation was found between BDI scores and DEPI. The diagnostic efficacy was found to be low for DEPI. In conclusion, it can be said that the DEPI has not been found to be very effective in diagnosing depression. Â Key Words: Rorschach Test, Depression Index, depression

Life is filled with situations that remain completely beyond our control. Yet, some people seem better able to tolerate this uncontrollability than others. To date, little research has focused on understanding how people feel about the uncontrollability of life (i.e., tolerance of uncontrollability). This article introduces and describes tolerance of uncontrollability while distinguishing it from other related constructs, including intolerance of uncertainty, perception and level of control, learned helplessness, and global beliefs, such as religion and spirituality, optimism and pessimism, mindfulness, and distress tolerance. To measure an individual’s tolerance of uncontrollability, we developed the Tolerance of Uncontrollability Questionnaire (TOUQ) and administered it, together with other measures on possibly related constructs, to 300 individuals (data were analyzed from 226 participants). After running exploratory factor analysis, the final version of the TOUQ consists of 19 items that load onto one factor, with excellent internal consistency (α = 0.97). Scores on the TOUQ were moderately related to intolerance of uncertainty and optimism, and weakly related to specific mindfulness factors. The TOUQ measures a unique construct and shows evidence of reliability and validity.

This study aims to understand what Albanians think about the tourism business and the likely impact of Covid-19 on tourism in Albania. A Mind Genomics-based cartography assessed the different aspects of tourism, with a response from 4800 people out of 7000 invited. Mind Genomics is a new science based on regression models, data mining and clustering techniques. Only 38% of Albanians are optimistic about summer vacations. Two mindsets of Albanian respondents emerged from the study. Around 52.5% of participants belong to the pessimistic mindset about having vacations at all. The remainder, 47.5% of participants belong to the “cautious” group;they would wait for a “reasonable” offer to decide. © 2021, World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society. All rights reserved.

Could the marriage of online meetings, emails, social media, worldwide pandemic, ‘working from home’, and home deliveries really signal the end of cities? If the story of cities has not come to an end, how might they evolve in response to these new impulses, particularly in the UK? This paper begins to provide some answers to these pressing questions. It does so by turning to London’s urban history, to the 1960s and 1970s anti-urban ethos, to the fall and rise of London and New York in the 1970s and 1980s, and especially by applying to cities theories of innovation that have been developed in the context of managing business and explaining the creative process. The discussion casts doubt on the city pessimists and suggests that although cities may be restructured to combat the impacts of Covid-19, they certainly won’t be abandoned. © 2021. All Rights Reserved.

Purpose Applications to radiation oncology in the United States have decreased the past 3 years, resulting in unfilled residency positions (30 [14.5%] in 2019 and 35 [18.5%] in 2020). The aim of this study is to understand the concerns among radiation oncology applicants and whether these concerns may have led to a decline in applications. Methods and Materials An Internet-based survey was e-mailed to all radiation oncology applicants participating in the 2020 National Resident Matching Program Match for whom e-mail addresses could be obtained (n = 145, 78.8%). The survey was open from May to September 2020. Results Survey responses were received for 98 applicants out of 145 (67.6%) available applicant e-mails. Applicants’ top-rated concerns were location of practice restrictions and residency expansion/oversupply of practicing physicians. Applicants were less concerned about a lack of exposure to the field of radiation oncology, competitiveness of the match, and the content of residency training. The sources of information which applicants used most, which applicants trusted most, and which promoted the most optimism among applicants were radiation oncology attending and resident physicians. The sources of information which applicants used least, which applicants trusted least, and which promoted the most pessimism among applicants were online resources. As a result of their concerns, 27 (28%) respondents strongly considered choosing a different field of medicine. Applicants identified 93 fellow graduating medical students who were interested in radiation oncology but chose not to apply; applicants reported that potential applicants chose not to apply most often due to concerns about location of practice restrictions and residency expansion/oversupply of practicing physicians. Conclusions Applicant concerns about residency expansion and location of practice restrictions are prevalent and may have led to declining applications to radiation oncology. To assuage applicant concerns, radiation oncology stakeholders must address these concerns by mitigating underlying problems.

High returns to college lead to intense competition among high-school students for places at elite universities. In this paper, I study an unanticipated effect of a high-school curriculum reform in China in the 2000s. In this context, students in the last cohort under the old curriculum were faced with an unexpectedly increased pressure associated with higher costs of retaking the College Entrance Exam due to the curriculum switch; I confirm this pattern by demonstrating a sharply declining number of exam retakers in the year when the curriculum was changed. I then study the impact of this increased cost and the associated higher pressure on household educational investments as well as long-run outcomes of students. The empirical results show that households with students exposed to a higher cost of retaking the exam invested more in children’s education for a better chance on their first sitting. Further evidence indicates that being in the last cohort under the old curriculum reduced students’ subjective wellbeing and led to more pessimism in the long run.

We show analysts’ own earnings forecasts predict error in their own forecasts of earnings at other horizons, which we argue provides a measure of the extent to which analysts inefficiently use information. We construct our measure by exploiting two sources of variation in analysts’ incentives: (i) more recent forecasts have greater salience at the time of the earnings release so accuracy incentives are higher (lower) at shorter (longer) forecast horizons and (ii) analysts have greater incentives for optimism (pessimism) at longer (shorter) horizons. Consistent with these incentives affecting the incorporation of information into forecasts, we document (i) current year forecasts underweight (overweight) information in shorter (longer) horizon forecasts and (ii) the mis-weighting is more pronounced when recent news is negative—when analysts have greater (weaker) incentives to incorporate the news into shorter (longer) horizon forecasts. Finally, returns tests suggest that forecasts adjusted for the inefficiency we document better represent market expectations of earnings.

In cases in which many causes together bring about an effect, it is common to select some as particularly important. Philosophers since Mill have been pessimistic about analyzing this reasoning because of its variability and the multifarious causal and pragmatic details of how it works. I argue Mill was right to think these details matter but wrong that they preclude philosophical analysis of causal selection. I show that analyzing the pragmatic details of scientific debates about the important causes of the Bhopal Gas Tragedy can illuminate causal reasoning about disasters and shed new light on causality and causal selection.

COVID-19 pandemic has affected the entire world in many ways. It has sparked a prominent pedagogical shift for university level students, as it has changed the way students learn, attend classes, or communicate with teachers. Globally, every student is forced to adopt Emergency Remote Learning (ERL) as a result of immediate transformation of physical classes into remote education. This two-fold study investigated the differences between traditional distance, online, and virtual learning solutions and the new Emergency Remote Learning (ERL) method for the university level education. Furthermore, a pragmatic mix-method study is conducted in the form of surveys, semi-structured interviews, and diary study spanning across 10 months of pandemic, to examine self-reported insights on ERL challenges, experiences, and learning engagement of the students from Finland and India. Cumulative findings suggest that scheduling, distractions, pessimistic emotions, longer durations, and concentration were the highest challenges faced by the students which impacted their learning experiences and engagement. The study also found that the ERL specific factors like low-interactivity, technical limitations, non-structured, and non-standardized methods had a prominent impact on the effectiveness of remote education. Furthermore, the study has suggested guidelines for improving remote learning experience as a futuristic solution beyond COVID-19 pandemic. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10639-021-10747-1.

The philosopher Giorgio Agamben has reacted to the coronavirus crisis in a way that markedly contrasts with most other positions in contemporary political philosophy. His position has been described as irrational, politically incorrect, and unfair toward the victims of COVID-19. In this article, we delve into the foundations of this peculiar, pessimistic, and controversial reaction. From Agamben’s conceptual framework, we will explain how state responses to the COVID-19 crisis have turned science into a new religion from the dogmas of which various strategies have been developed in order for states to exercise biopolitical power under theological guises.

PurposeBased on the conservation of resources theory, this study aims to investigate high involvement work practices (HIWP) as an antecedent to burnout with a mediating role of perceived work–family (WF) imbalance. Moreover, this study examines whether humble leadership moderates the relationship between HIWP and WF imbalance.Design/methodology/approachUsing a time-lagged survey approach, data are collected from 200 employees working in the Indian services sector organizations.FindingsThe findings demonstrate that HIWP has a direct negative effect on burnout and an indirect effect via WF imbalance. Also, humble leadership moderates the relationship between HIWP and WF imbalance.Originality/valueBy studying the pessimistic view of HIWP in the Indian context, this study contributes to the scant studies available on its effect on burnout in collectivistic societies. Furthermore, humble leadership's moderating role in the relationship between HIWP and WF imbalance is unique to this study.

Krytyka rewolucji nie jest właściwa wyłącznie myślicielom francuskim. Reakcjonizm odnosi się do tych, których dotknęła klęska ancien régime’u. W nurt ten wpisuje się Juan Donoso Cortés, a niniejszy artykuł służy uważnemu przeanalizowaniu jego osoby pod kątem przemiany światopoglądowej i krytyki doktryn o rewolucyjnym rodowodzie oraz przedstawieniu śmiałej koncepcji tego dyplomaty, to jest dyktatury w imię ładu prawdziwego. Choć hiszpański konserwatysta nie stworzył przywołanej koncepcji całkowicie od podstaw, gdyż opierał się na doktrynie Josepha de Maistre’a, to jednak należy stwierdzić, że rozwinął ją, obudowując dodatkowo ideowym uzasadnieniem. Przejawiając zakorzenione w platońsko-augustiańskiej filozofii podejście pesymistyczne, wyrażał postawę bliską francuskiej odmianie tradycjonalizmu. Inicjator decyzjonizmu z jednej strony oraz kontynuator tradycjonalistycznych zwyczajów z drugiej, sformułował intrygującą konstrukcję będącą zarówno kontynuacją wielu stanowisk myśli konserwatywnej, jak i — przy zachowaniu wyraźnie zachowawczych tendencji — otwarciem jej na nowe rozwiązania. Wszystko dla urzeczywistnienia największego celu — obrony ładu prawdziwego.

Covid-19 is, above all, a problem concerning public health and healthcare professionals. This seems totally obvious but not for everybody. However, just beginning the outbreak of the pandemic, in the midst of its deadliest first wave, some renowned intellectuals, such as Slavoj Žižek, speculated in highly idealized and utopian terms about the positive effects that would be unleashed for philosophical and political thought. In this article we try to think the biopolitical implications of this pandemic, especially through a critical pessimism that faces the immanentist prophetism, which is typical of intramundane futurist projects that we read today in political publications. To fulfill our goals, we fully enter into the debate on the pandemic through contemporary authors such as Foucault, Agamben, Fukuyama, Han, and other relevant thinkers. After the hybris of the pandemic, we propose an ethics of caring for oneself and others in a parrhesia where, what is hidden and biopolitically manipulated, comes to light as a support for the different democratic systems, where Covid-19 must be fought. © 2021 by Revista Portuguesa de Filosofia. All rights reserved.

The main goal of this correlational study is to examine the changes in the amount and type of physical activity of students of various study programs during the coronavirus pandemic. Furthermore, the motives for these changes as well as their relationship with general well-being are investigated. Therefore, 243 students (sport science, humanities, natural sciences) answered questions concerning (a) the amount and type of their physical activity before and during the pandemic, (b) their well-being and (c) their optimism/pessimism. The main result of the study is that the type and the motives for sports and physical activity changed for the study participants during the coronavirus pandemic: Team sports and swimming decreased, while individual sports and physical activity not associated with a sports club/business and with digital media increased. In this study the difference in sports and physical activity seemed to be related to well-being, especially for the students of sport science and humanities. To conclude the study indicated that a change occurred in the type of sports and physical activity as well as change in the motives for physical exercise in students during the pandemic.

This article attempts to explicate the socio-cultural aspect as a general methodological tool that will allow making an integral analysis of modern society. The possibility of using the methodological potential of the sociocultural approach to analyze the process of change in modern society, which is increasingly called informational and communicative, is considered. This concept of the information society functions and creates social ideals and values ​​that are widely discussed in the social and human sciences within the framework of a social and cultural approach. Analysis of the information society is a multidisciplinary field of research, and sociocultural analysis is designed to answer important questions: in what direction and for what purpose is the social situation developing and what is the axiological component of this process? The synthesizing nature of the sociocultural analysis of the information society shows the direction of predicting its subsequent advance, the search for new normative concepts that suggest the possibility of localizing this process in a socially desirable channel, while ignoring both excessive optimism and extreme pessimism.

The anti-metaphysical argument against scientific realism (AMA) is the following: (1) Knowledge of unobservable entities implies metaphysical knowledge; (2) There is no metaphysical knowledge. Therefore, there is no knowledge of unobservable entities. This argument has strangely received little attention in the profuse literature on scientific realism. This paper claims that the AMA is logically more fundamental than both the pessimistic meta-induction and the underdetermination argument. The second and main claim of this paper is that the instrumentalists’ use of AMA is incoherent. The gist of my argument is that experimental knowledge requires minimally metaphysical knowledge, and that minimally metaphysical knowledge—when associated with empirical knowledge—suffices to yield a minimal knowledge of the unobservable. I then examine and reject two possible responses: minimally metaphysical instrumentalism and algebraic instrumentalism.

Being polite is significant to maintain good communications as well as social relationship and therefore various strategies are applied to show language politeness. This sociopragmatic study deals with negative politeness found in What Would You Do? TV show to describe the types of negative politeness strategies and investigate the reasons of choosing those strategies. This research applied a descriptive qualitative approach supported by statistics. The data were in the form of utterances containing negative politeness strategies, sourced in the conversations and the scripts between the participants and the actors. There were 106 data collected by note-taking technique from the show’s YouTube channel. The trustworthiness was attained through analyst triangulation. The findings show that seven negative politeness strategies are used by the participants in their responses to the actors: Being Indirect (12), Questions, Hedges (40), Minimizing the Imposition (12), Apologizing (25), Giving Difference (9), Being Pessimistic (6), and State the FTA as General Rule (2). The dominance of Questions, Hedges relates to the options provided to the addressee to accept or refuse the speaker’s request and to make utterances sound more polite. Related to reasons, the payoffs factor was dominant (with 84 occurrences) because it is the basic factor the participants might think about what they will get by applying a certain strategy. The circumstances factor has 22 occurrences, consisting of social distance (14), social power (5), and rank of imposition (3).

This paper explores how schools with students from power-marginalised positions—refugee, immigrant and working class—channel policy pressures in ways that aggravate students’ social-structural vulnerabilities. Drawing on interview data, we foreground voices of students who were selected into ‘accelerated’ academic programs in three Australian secondary schools. We relate their experiences and analyses to conceptual diagnoses of how historic conditions of current times are ‘cruel for optimism’ (Berlant), inciting social institutions to multiply ‘little miseries’ (Bourdieu), as meritocratic promises of upwardly mobile ‘opportunity bargains’ through schooling prove to be ‘opportunity traps’ (Brown). We highlight students’ pessimistic readings of likely futures in relation to school promises of ‘good futures’, as well as astute readings of how school competition strategies—caring for market ratings and reputations more than students—sort some to ‘achieve highly’ while chasing others, seen as ‘lesser-’ and ‘non-achieving’, onto devalued vocational paths and/or to other schools. We surface pressuring tactics that bear unequally, sometimes punitively, on differently sorted students. We conclude with suggestions for ethically re-purposed curriculum to engage all students—across diversities and working with teachers and community members—in practices of voice, participation and agency to address problems that matter for future life-with-others. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) of depression is hypothesized to achieve its effects by correcting negative biases. However, little research has tested how biases change over the course of CBT. We focus on biases in interpersonal judgments and examine whether changes in biases occur in CBT and are associated with symptom improvements. A sample of 126 adults (60% women, mean age 31.7, 83% White) participated in CBT of depression. Observers provided ratings of patients participating in two interpersonal tasks on three occasions. Patients were asked to predict observers’ ratings. In a thin slice (TS) task, observers evaluated how patients came across in a brief segment in which patients talked about themselves. In a Standard Interaction Task (SIT), observers rated the social skills patients displayed in challenging role plays. The difference between patient predictions and observer ratings provided measures of bias in these interpersonal judgments. TS and SIT bias became significantly less pessimistic and more realistic over the course of CBT. Improvements in TS bias were associated with a faster reduction in symptoms, whereas there was a non-significant trend for improvement in SIT bias being associated with faster symptom reduction. Consistent with the CBT model, negative interpersonal biases became more realistic throughout a course of CBT for depression and at least some of the changes in bias were related to therapeutic outcomes. We encourage future researchers to continue examining for whom and under which conditions correcting such biases produces the greatest benefits.