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Osmanthus fragrans is a valuable landscaping tree that is appreciated worldwide. However, the optimal environmental conditions for O. fragrans cultivation have yet to be studied in detail, which hinders the preservation of wild resources of this plant and its commercial exploitation. The maximum entropy model was applied to assess the significance of environment variables influencing O. fragrans distribution. Combining data from 629 global distribution points for O. fragrans, predictions were made on the potential effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of suitable habitats for this species in the present and the future. The results indicated that O. fragrans preferred a warm and humid growing environment. Under the current climatic conditions, the potential habitats for O. fragrans were mostly located in the eastern coastal areas of the continents at medium and low latitudes. The main environmental variables that affected its distribution were the precipitation during the warmest quarter, the temperature seasonality, and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. The analysis indicated that the continuation of current trends in climate change will result in the further reduction of suitable habitats for O. fragrans growth, and the global centroid will shift to the southeast. These findings provided insight into the impact of climate change on O. fragrans habitats, as well as provide guidance for the conservation of wild resources of this species and the breeding of more climate change‐resistant varieties for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change exerts great effects on plant distributions. However, the response of Prunus mira Koehne, one of the most important species for ecological protection in the southeast of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, to climate change remains unclear. To explore the ecological factors affecting the distribution of P. mira in the context of global climate change, the MaxENT model is used to predict suitable habitats for P. mira. Our study indicated that the distribution of Prunus mira Koehn is primarily influenced by temperature rather than precipitation, and warming can facilitate the growth of P. mira. When the temperature seasonality (bio4) ranges from 134 to 576 and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11) ranges from −2.6 °C to 2.7 °C, it is most conducive to the growth of P. mira. Among the four climate scenarios, the optimal habitat for P. mira is predominantly concentrated in river valley areas and is expected to expand into higher altitude regions, particularly in the north and southeast. SSP245 and SSP370 climate pathways are conducive to the growth and spatial expansion of P. mira. Our findings highlight the significant impact of temperature not precipitation on the distribution of P. mira, and this insight is crucial for the stability and conservation of this ecologically significant plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cyclobalanopsis gilva, a valuable timber species in China, holds significant importance for understanding the constraints imposed by climate change on the dynamic geographic distribution of tree species. This study utilized the MaxEnt maximum entropy model to reconstruct the migratory dynamics of C. gilva geographical distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum. The objective was to comprehend the restrictive mechanisms of environmental factors on its potential geographical distribution, aiming to provide insights for mid-to-long-term afforestation planning of C. gilva. The optimized MaxEnt model exhibited a significantly high predictive accuracy, with an average AUC value of 0.949 ± 0.004 for the modern suitable habitat model of C. gilva. The total suitable habitat area for C. gilva in contemporary times was 143.05 × 104 km2, with a highly suitable habitat area of 3.14 × 104 km2. The contemporary suitable habitat was primarily located in the southeastern regions of China, while the highly suitable habitat was concentrated in eastern Fujian and central-eastern Taiwan. Bioclimatic variables such as mean diurnal range (Bio2), min temperature of coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) predominantly influenced the modern geographic distribution pattern of C. gilva, with temperature factors playing a leading role. With global climate warming, there is a risk of fragmentation or even loss of suitable habitat for C. gilva by 2050 and 2090. Therefore, the findings of this study can significantly contribute to initiating a habitat conservation campaign for this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the distribution of species due to global climate change have a critically significant impact on the increase in the spread of invasive species. An in-depth study of the distribution patterns of invasive species and the factors influencing them can help to better predict and combat invasive alien species. Rhynchophorus ferrugineus Olivier is an invasive species that primarily harms plants of Trachycarpus H. Wendl. The pest invades trees in three main ways: by laying eggs and incubating them in the crown of the plant, on roots at the surface and at the base of the trunk or petiole. Most of the plants in the genus Trachycarpus are taller, and the damage is concentrated in the middle and upper parts of the plant, making control more difficult. In this paper, we combine 19 bioclimatic variables based on the MaxEnt model to project the current and future distributions of R. ferrugineus under three typical emission scenarios (2.6 W m −2 (SSP1-2.6), 4.5 W m −2 (SSP2-4.5) and 8.5 W m −2 (SSP5-8.5)) in the 2050s and 2090s. Among the 19 bioclimatic variables, five variables were screened out by contribution rates, namely annual mean temperature (BIO 1), precipitation of driest quarter (BIO 17), minimum temperature of coldest month (BIO 6), mean diurnal range (BIO 2) and precipitation of wettest quarter (BIO 16). These five variables are key environmental variables that influence habitat suitability for R. ferrugineus and are representative in reflecting its potential habitat. The results showed that R. ferrugineus is now widely distributed in the southeastern coastal area of China (high suitability zone), concentrating in the provinces of Hainan, Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi and Taiwan. In the future, the area of high and low suitability zones will increase and the area of medium suitability zones will decrease. The area of low suitability zone will still be in the largest proportion. This study aims to provide a theoretical reference for the future control of R. ferrugineus from the perspective of geographic distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Young shoots of Aralia elata and young leaves of Eleutherococcus senticosus are two major non-timber forest products in northeastern China. However, human activities and climate change have resulted in serious threats to the habitats of two trees, which greatly limits resource conservation and exploitation of economic forest trees. We used the MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitats of the two economic trees and analyzed the dominant factors affecting their distribution. The results showed that the suitable habitat areas of A. elata and E. senticosus in the current period were 159950 km2 and 123449 km2, respectively, and the suitable habitats of both economic forest trees were located in the eastern part of the northeast region. Climate factors (Annual precipitation, Precipitation Seasonality) and land use factors are important variables influencing changes in suitable habitat for both trees. With the change of climate and land use in the future, the overall trend of suitable habitat for both economic forest trees shows a northward and then a southward migration. These results may provide assistance in developing strategies for resource conservation and sustainable use of A. elata and E. senticosus, and we suggest that stable and suitable habitats should be selected as areas for in situ conservation and breeding of the two economic forest trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dehong Prefecture of Yunnan Province is a concentrated distribution area of hornbill populations. From December 2020 to November 2021, the field distribution sites of Anthracoceros albirostris，Buceros bicornis and Rhyticeros undulatus were investigated by using the line transects. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable habitat distribution of the three species of hornbills in Dehong Prefecture. Our results showed that the most suitable habitat of Anthracoceros albirostris is mainly distributed in the northwestern and southwestern edges of Yingjiang and Ruili, with a total area of 116 km² . The most suitable habitat of Buceros bicornis is mainly distributed in the southwestern margin of Yingjiang, the northwestern of Longchuan and the southwestern of Ruili, with a total area of about 170 km² . The most suitable habitat of Rhyticeros undulatus is mainly distributed in the northwestern and southwestern edges of Yingjiang and the southwestern of Ruili, with a total area of 305 km² . Aspect, precipitation volume in driest month (Bio14), and the lowest temperature in the coldest month (Bio6) are the most important contributing factors affecting the distribution of Anthracoceros albirostris. Annual precipitation volume (Bio12), Bio14, and slope are the most important contributing factors affecting the distribution of Buceros bicornis. Aspect and Bio6 are the most important contributing factors affecting the distribution of Rhyticeros undulatus. Our results will provide the foundation for future field surveys, conservation planning and habitat management of the three species of hornbill in Dehong Prefecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Osmanthus fragrans is a valuable landscaping tree that is appreciated worldwide. However, the optimal environmental conditions for O. fragrans cultivation have yet to be studied in detail, which hinders the preservation of wild resources of this plant and its commercial exploitation. The maximum entropy model was applied to assess the significance of environment variables influencing O. fragrans distribution. Combining data from 629 global distribution points for O. fragrans, predictions were made on the potential effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of suitable habitats for this species in the present and the future. The results indicated that O. fragrans preferred a warm and humid growing environment. Under the current climatic conditions, the potential habitats for O. fragrans were mostly located in the eastern coastal areas of the continents at medium and low latitudes. The main environmental variables that affected its distribution were the precipitation during the warmest quarter, the temperature seasonality, and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. The analysis indicated that the continuation of current trends in climate change will result in the further reduction of suitable habitats for O. fragrans growth, and the global centroid will shift to the southeast. These findings provided insight into the impact of climate change on O. fragrans habitats, as well as provide guidance for the conservation of wild resources of this species and the breeding of more climate change‐resistant varieties for the future.

Global climate changes are expected to profoundly shape species distribution. Quercus oxyphylla, a valuable evergreen broad-leaved tree species, is rigorously conserved and managed in China owing to its substantial scientific, economic, and ecological value. However, the impact of projected climate change on its future distribution and potential climatic drivers remains unclear. Here, a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to explore the distribution of Q. oxyphylla in China under current conditions and three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. We optimized the model using the 'ENMeval' package to obtain the best parameter combination (RM = 1, FC = LQHPT), and multiple evaluation metrics (AUC ≥ 0.9; TSS ≥ 0.6; Kappa ≥ 0.75) verified the high accuracy of the model and the reliability of the prediction results. We found the following: (1) The potential distribution of Q. oxyphylla spans across 28 provinces in China under current climatic conditions, predominantly in southern regions, with Sichuan exhibiting the largest suitable area for survival. The total suitable habitat covers 244.98 × 104 km2, comprising highly, moderately, and poorly suitable habitats of 51.66 × 104 km2, 65.98 × 104 km2, and 127.34 × 104 km2, respectively. (2) Under future climate conditions, the overall geographical boundaries of Q. oxyphylla are predicted to remain similar to the present one, with an increase of 10.29% in the 2050s and 11.31% in the 2070s. In the 2050s, the total suitable habitats for Q. oxyphylla under the three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) might increase by 8.83%, 9.62%, and 12.42%, while in the 2070s they might increase by 10.39%, 17.21%, and 6.33%, respectively. (3) Moreover, the centroid of the suitable area is expected to migrate southwestward under the three scenarios in the future. (4) Annual precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range emerged as the main factors influencing the distribution of Q. oxyphylla, with contributions of 55.9%, 25.7%, and 13.5%, respectively. Our findings refined the spatial arrangement of Q. oxyphylla growth and revealed its climate resilience. This suggested that under climate change, Sichuan and Shaanxi are the optimal regions for cultivation and management, while appropriate conservation strategies should be formulated in Tibet and Hubei. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is critical to the distribution pattern of endangered plants; therefore, understanding the future changes in the adaptive areas of endangered spruce and driving factors on the Tibetan Plateau is of great research significance for spruce species conservation and sustainability. In this study, variations in the distribution pattern of four endangered spruce species (Picea. Balfouriana, Picea. Linzhiensis, Picea. Complanata, and Picea. Aurantiaca) on the Tibetan Plateau were predicted by the MaxEnt model, and the important environmental variables affecting its geographic distribution were analyzed. We found that under the current climate conditions, the four endangered spruce species were mainly situated in the southern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter was a key environmental variable affecting the geographic distribution of four endangered spruce species, with suitable growth ranges of −9–8 °C for P. balfouriana and −6–5 °C for P. linzhiensis, P. complanata, and P. aurantiaca. Under different future climate pathways, the highly suitable habitat of four endangered spruce was mainly situated in the east, south, and southeast districts of the Tibetan Plateau. With the suitable growth range of key variables continuing to expand on the Tibetan Plateau, the area of suitable habitat for each of the four endangered spruce species increases to varying degrees. Compared with the current climate, four endangered spruce species will expand to the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau under different future climate scenarios, and the degree of expansion will increase with the increase in temperature. This study not only reveals the response of suitable habitats of four endangered spruce species to global warming, but also provides scientific insights for spruce population conservation and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Dendrolimus houi, a phytophagous pest, displays a broad range of adaptations and often inflicts localized damage to its hosts. Cupressus funebris, an indigenous timber species in China, is significantly impacted by D. houi. Investigating the suitable habitat distribution and changes in D. houi and its host plant, C. funebris, within the context of climate warming, is essential for understanding D. houi's development and providing novel insights for managing D. houi and conserving C. funebris resources. In this study, MaxEnt was employed to simulate the distribution of D. houi and its host plant, C. funebris, in their suitable habitats, evaluating the influence of environmental factors on their distribution and determining changes under a warming scenario. MaxEnt model parameters were adjusted using the Kuenm data package based on available distribution and climatic data. The minimum temperature of the coldest month emerged as the primary environmental factor influencing the distribution of a suitable habitat for D. houi and C. funebris, with a percentage contribution of environmental factors over 60%. There was a substantial similarity in the suitable habitat distributions of D. houi and C. funebris, with varying degrees of expansion in the total habitat area under different temporal and climatic scenarios. Intersection analysis results indicated that the 2041–2060 period, especially under low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, is a critical phase for D. houi control. The habitat expansion of D. houi and C. funebris due to climate change was observed, with the distribution center of D. houi shifting northeast and that of C. funebris shifting northwest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cyclobalanopsis gilva, a valuable timber species in China, holds significant importance for understanding the constraints imposed by climate change on the dynamic geographic distribution of tree species. This study utilized the MaxEnt maximum entropy model to reconstruct the migratory dynamics of C. gilva geographical distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum. The objective was to comprehend the restrictive mechanisms of environmental factors on its potential geographical distribution, aiming to provide insights for mid-to-long-term afforestation planning of C. gilva. The optimized MaxEnt model exhibited a significantly high predictive accuracy, with an average AUC value of 0.949 ± 0.004 for the modern suitable habitat model of C. gilva. The total suitable habitat area for C. gilva in contemporary times was 143.05 × 104 km2, with a highly suitable habitat area of 3.14 × 104 km2. The contemporary suitable habitat was primarily located in the southeastern regions of China, while the highly suitable habitat was concentrated in eastern Fujian and central-eastern Taiwan. Bioclimatic variables such as mean diurnal range (Bio2), min temperature of coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) predominantly influenced the modern geographic distribution pattern of C. gilva, with temperature factors playing a leading role. With global climate warming, there is a risk of fragmentation or even loss of suitable habitat for C. gilva by 2050 and 2090. Therefore, the findings of this study can significantly contribute to initiating a habitat conservation campaign for this species.

Copyright of Journal of Ecology & Rural Environment is the property of Journal of Ecology & Rural Environment Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology / Yingyong Shengtai Xuebao is the property of Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Understanding species response to climate change is essential for the conservation and utilization of species resources under rapid climate change in the future. In this study, the present and future suitable distribution range of Keteleeria davidiana, a tertiary relict gymnosperm, was predicted based on the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). A total of 158 occurrence records were collected after removing the duplicated records. Six low-correlation climate variables were used to predict species distributions. The three key climate factors that affect the distribution of K. davidiana were temperature seasonality (34.96%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (28.30%) and precipitation seasonality (13.58%). The most suitable zone of the temperature seasonality for K. davidiana was between 377.4 and 843.4. The highly suitable area was located in the mountainous regions of central and southeast China, which accounted for 13.39% of the whole study area. With climate warming in the future, the highly suitable distribution area of K. davidiana was estimated to decrease by 35% (SSP1-2.6 scenario) or 85% (SSP5-8.5 scenario). This study has provided a sufficient scientific basis for the future in situ and ex situ conservation of K. davidiana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continued global climate and environmental changes have led to habitat narrowing or migration of medicinal plants. Gentiana rhodantha Franch. ex Hemsl. is a medicinal plant for ethnic minorities in China, and it has a remarkable curative effect in the treatment of lung-heat cough. However, its habitat is gradually decreasing, and the species has been listed as an endangered ethnic medicine due to excessive harvesting. Here, based on CMIP6 bioclimatic data and 117 species occurrence records, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), combined with ArcGIS technology, was applied to predict the potentially suitable habitats for G. rhodantha under different climate scenarios. The results showed that the most critical bioclimatic variables affecting G. rhodantha are the precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11). The highly suitable habitats of G. rhodantha are mainly concentrated in Belt and Road ("B&R") countries, including China, Bhutan, and Vietnam. However, under different climate change scenarios, the fragmentation extent of suitable habitats in China will generally increase, the suitable area will show a decreasing trend as a whole, the distribution center will shift to the northeast, and the distance will increase with time. Notably, the shrinkage of the high suitability area was the most obvious for the 2081–2100 SSP585 scenario, with a total of 358,385.2 km2. These findings contribute to the understanding of the geo-ecological characteristics of this species, and provide guidelines for the conservation, management, monitoring, and cultivation of G. rhodantha. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological niche is a key concept that links species distributions. Ecological niche shifts are expected to affect the potential invasive risk of alien species. Rapistrum rugosum is an invasive agricultural weed in many countries. Wild populations of R. rugosum have been recorded in China, representing a great threat to the regional crops. Based on distribution records from different regions and relevant environmental variables, the present study predicted the potential distribution and estimated the invasive risk of R. rugosum in China. Ecological niche shifts strongly affected the potential invasive risk of R. rugosum in China. The two most important variables were annual temperature range (Bio7) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11). The total suitable habitat for the species covered an area of 287.53 × 104km2 and was mainly distributed in Southwest, Southeast, and Central China. Australia, Canada, Brazil, the United States, and Argentina accounted for over 90% of the inspection records of R. rugosum from Chinese entry ports during 2015–2018. The intercepted R. rugosum was frequently mixed in Glycine max (L.) Merr., Hordeum vulgare L., linseed, Triticum aestivum L., and Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench. Moreover, 80% interceptions were recorded from Tianjin, Guangdong, Nanjing, and Chengdu customs. Climatic conditions do not limit the establishment capability of R. rugosum in China. Our results provide a theoretical reference for the development of monitoring and control measures for this invasive weed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological niche is a key concept that links species distributions. Ecological niche shifts are expected to affect the potential invasive risk of alien species. Rapistrum rugosum is an invasive agricultural weed in many countries. Wild populations of R. rugosum have been recorded in China, representing a great threat to the regional crops. Based on distribution records from different regions and relevant environmental variables, the present study predicted the potential distribution and estimated the invasive risk of R. rugosum in China. Ecological niche shifts strongly affected the potential invasive risk of R. rugosum in China. The two most important variables were annual temperature range (Bio7) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11). The total suitable habitat for the species covered an area of 287.53 × 104km2 and was mainly distributed in Southwest, Southeast, and Central China. Australia, Canada, Brazil, the United States, and Argentina accounted for over 90% of the inspection records of R. rugosum from Chinese entry ports during 2015–2018. The intercepted R. rugosum was frequently mixed in Glycine max (L.) Merr., Hordeum vulgare L., linseed, Triticum aestivum L., and Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench. Moreover, 80% interceptions were recorded from Tianjin, Guangdong, Nanjing, and Chengdu customs. Climatic conditions do not limit the establishment capability of R. rugosum in China. Our results provide a theoretical reference for the development of monitoring and control measures for this invasive weed.

Carex tussock plays an important role in supporting biodiversity and carbon sequestration of wetland ecosystems, while it is highly threatened by climate change and anthropogenic activities. Therefore, identifying the potential distribution patterns of Carex tussocks wetland is vital for their targeted conservation and restoration. The current and future (2050s and 2070s) potential habitats distribution of Carex tussocks in Northeast China were predicted using a Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model based on 68 current data of Carex tussock distributions and three groups of environmental variables (bioclimate, topography, soil properties). Results show that isothermality, seasonal precipitation variability and altitude are important factors that determine the distribution of Carex tussock. The high suitable habitat of Carex tussock is about 5.7 × 104 km2 and mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, Changbai Mountains and Da Hinggan Mountains. The area of stable habitats of Carex tussock is significantly higher than the lost and expanded habitats in the future climate scenarios, and the unsuitable habitats mainly occur in Da Hinggan Mountains, Xiao Hinggan Mountains and Changbai Mountains. Overall, Carex tussock wetlands at high altitude and high latitude are more sensitive to climate change, and more attention should be invested in high latitude and high altitude areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As renowned species for use in sand fixation and traditional Chinese medicines, Ephedra sinica Stapf, Ephedra intermedia Schrenk ex Mey and Ephedra equisetina Bunge have important ecological and medicinal value. However, although conservation measures have been implemented, the suitable habitat for these species has been shrinking at a remarkable rate in recent years due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. The identification of suitable habitats for these three Ephedra is essential for their protection and cultivation. Thus, this study proposed a new method for planning the best species conservation habitat through fitting errors caused by a single model. The method modeled the current suitable habitats of the three Ephedra species using the MaxEnt model and evaluated the key environmental variables defining the Ephedra distribution based on recorded occurrence data for Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Qinghai. The results showed that human activities were the most important environmental parameter affecting the distribution of the three species, and land cover, ground frost frequency and precipitation accounted for an important proportion of the model evaluation. Second, the results obtained with the MaxEnt model were coupled with the finding from the Marxan model to identify priority conservation areas for the three Ephedra species. The results revealed that the most suitable habitats for E. sinica were mainly concentrated in eastern and central Inner Mongolia, E. intermedia was relatively distributed in southern and central Gansu, and the areas of E. equisetina were mainly distributed in northern Xinjiang. The priority conservation areas for E. sinica, E. intermedia, and E. equisetina were 38068.12 km2, 26446.74 km2 and 36360.6 km2, respectively. The comprehensive analysis indicated that be use of MaxEnt coupled with the Marxan model to model the suitable habitat of these Ephedra species eliminates the distribution errors introduced by each model alone. The protection of wild Ephedra should be a priority, and the scale of the artificial planting of Ephedra should be enlarged. Given these results, the three Ephedra species included in our study urgently need to be subjected to targeted conservation management to ensure the renewal of Ephedra communities and to maintain the supply of medicinal materials. This study provides a useful reference for the protection and cultivation of these three Ephedra.

Climate change has been regarded as one of the major threats to endangered species, and offers a wide variety of challenges to current conservation strategies. Assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change is a critical initial step for improving in-situ conservation planning. In this study, we used MaxEnt to predict the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for wild camel (Camelus ferus) in the Kumtag Desert both during the current period and projected into the 2050 s. Our results showed that (i) suitable habitat for wild camel was predicted to decrease by 43.81% by the 2050 s; (ii) currently established nature reserves protected 57.86% of currently suitable habitat; (iii) 44.15% of currently suitable habitat was predicted to be vulnerable to future climate change, with a minor increase in newly suitable habitat by the 2050 s; (iv) climate refuge areas amounted to 21,601 km2 and were mainly located in the core area of the desert. Given these results, we propose conservation implications to mitigate the impacts of climate change on wild camel, including intergrating the suitable habitat into the planning of a proposed national park, constructing habitat corridors, restoring water sources, and implementing long-term monitoring.

Helicoverpa zea, a well-documented and endemic pest throughout most of the Americas, affecting more than 100 species of host plants. It is a quarantine pest according to the Asia and Pacific Plant Protection Commission (APPPC) and the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People’s Republic of China. Based on 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea were predicted by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The contribution rate of bioclimatic variables and the jackknife method were integrated to assess the significant variables governing the PGDs. The response curves of bioclimatic variables were quantitatively determined to predict the PGDs of H. zea under climate change. The results showed that: (1) four out of the eight variables contributed the most to the model performance, namely, mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) PGDs of H. zea under the current climate covered 418.15 × 104 km2, and were large in China; and (3) future climate change will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in both the 2030s and 2050s. The conversion of unsuitable to low suitability habitat and moderately to high suitability habitat increased by 8.43% and 2.35%, respectively. From the present day to the 2030s, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the centroid of the suitable habitats of H. zea showed a general tendency to move eastward; from 2030s to the 2050s, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, it moved southward, and it moved slightly northward under SSP2-4.5. According to bioclimatic conditions, H. zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to host plants and containers of H. zea and should exchange information to strengthen plant quarantine and pest monitoring, thus enhancing target management.

Copyright of Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology / Yingyong Shengtai Xuebao is the property of Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Ecology & Rural Environment is the property of Journal of Ecology & Rural Environment Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) with high altitude and low temperature is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and has recently experienced continuous warming. The species distribution on the QTP has undergone significant changes especially an upward shift with global warming in the past decades. In this study, two dominant trees (Picea crassifolia Kom and Sabina przewalskii Kom) and one dominant shrub (Potentilla parvifolia Fisch) were selected and their potential distributions using the MaxEnt model during three periods (current, the 2050s and the 2070s) were predicted. The predictions were based on four shared socio-economic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, namely, SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0, SSP8.5. The predicted current potential distribution of three species was basically located in the northeastern of QTP, and the distribution of three species was most impacted by aspect, elevation, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, Subsoil CEC (clay), Subsoil bulk density and Subsoil CEC (soil). There were significant differences in the potential distribution of three species under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s including expanding, shifting, and shrinking. The total suitable habitat for Picea crassifolia shrank under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and enlarged under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. On the contrary, the total suitable habitat for Sabina przewalskii enlarged under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and shrank under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The total suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia continued to increase with SSP2.6 to SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The average elevation in potentially suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia all increased except under SSP8.5 in the 2050s. Our study provides an important reference for the conservation of Picea crassifolia, Sabina przewalskii, Potentilla parvifolia and other dominant plant species on the QTP under future climate change.

Nature reserve designs and networks are important for wildlife and habitat conservation. Gap analyses are efficient and reliable tools for prioritizing habitat conservation efforts, especially when considering endangered species. We propose a conservation plan for the brown–eared pheasant, Crossoptilon mantchuricum, by identifying protection gap areas based on 14 existing nature reserves. A total of 45 locality sites and 11 environmental variables were selected according to the characteristics of habitat use of the brown–eared pheasant and applied to a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to obtain the species distribution. The MaxEnt model results showed a high prediction accuracy. The gap analysis results revealed that the Luliang Mountains in Shanxi and the Xiaowutai Mountains in Hebei had protection gaps. We found 458 km2 of optimum habitat and 1,390 km2 of moderately suitable habitat within the national nature reserve range. However, almost 1,861 km2 of the optimum habitat and 17,035 km2 of the moderately suitable habitat were unprotected, equivalent to 9.0% and 82.1%, respectively, of the total suitable habitat. Most of the unprotected area comprised moderately suitable habitat for brown–eared pheasant and should be prioritized in future conservation efforts. There are nine nature reserves along a north–to–south range in the Luliang Mountains that form a wildlife habitat corridor. To maintain the integrity, originality, and continuity of these habitats and thus protect brown–eared pheasants, local conservation departments should be strengthened to improve provincial nature reserve management and successfully carry out conservation efforts.

Cultivation of woody oil plants in environmentally suitable habitats is a successful ecological solution for oil development and forest management. In this study, we predicted the influences of future climate change on the potentially suitable climatic distribution of an important woody oil plant species (walnut; Juglans regia L.) in China based on given climate change scenarios and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The MaxEnt model showed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month and annual precipitation were the most important determinant variables limiting the geographical distribution of J. regia. We have found that the current suitable environmental habitat of J. regia is mainly distributed in central and southwestern China. Results of the MaxEnt model showed that global warming in the coming half-century may lead to an increase in the area size of environmentally suitable habitats for J. regia in China, indicating more lands available for artificial cultivation and oil production. However, those suitable habitat gains may be practically inaccessible due to over-harvest and urban development, and effective management strategies are urgently needed to establish those forests. This research will provide theoretical suggestions for the protection, cultivation management, and sustainable utilization of J. regia resources to face the challenge of global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Simple Summary: Helicoverpa zea is one of the most destructive lepidopteran agricultural pests in the world and can disperse long distances both with and without human transportation. It is listed in the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People's Republic of China but has not yet been reported in China. On the basis of 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, we predicted the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The results showed that the PGDs of H. zea under the current climate are large in China. Future climate changes under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for both the 2030s and 2050s will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea. Helicoverpa zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to the host plants of H. zea and containers harboring this pest. Helicoverpa zea, a well-documented and endemic pest throughout most of the Americas, affecting more than 100 species of host plants. It is a quarantine pest according to the Asia and Pacific Plant Protection Commission (APPPC) and the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People's Republic of China. Based on 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea were predicted by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The contribution rate of bioclimatic variables and the jackknife method were integrated to assess the significant variables governing the PGDs. The response curves of bioclimatic variables were quantitatively determined to predict the PGDs of H. zea under climate change. The results showed that: (1) four out of the eight variables contributed the most to the model performance, namely, mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) PGDs of H. zea under the current climate covered 418.15 × 104 km2, and were large in China; and (3) future climate change will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in both the 2030s and 2050s. The conversion of unsuitable to low suitability habitat and moderately to high suitability habitat increased by 8.43% and 2.35%, respectively. From the present day to the 2030s, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the centroid of the suitable habitats of H. zea showed a general tendency to move eastward; from 2030s to the 2050s, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, it moved southward, and it moved slightly northward under SSP2-4.5. According to bioclimatic conditions, H. zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to host plants and containers of H. zea and should exchange information to strengthen plant quarantine and pest monitoring, thus enhancing target management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Human activities were the most important environmental parameter affecting the distribution of three ephedra. • We planned the priority hotspot areas for three ephedra through coupling the MaxEnt and Marxan models. • We proposed a new method for identifying the best species conservation habitat. As renowned species for use in sand fixation and traditional Chinese medicines, Ephedra sinica Stapf , Ephedra intermedia Schrenk ex Mey and Ephedra equisetina Bunge have important ecological and medicinal value. However, although conservation measures have been implemented, the suitable habitat for these species has been shrinking at a remarkable rate in recent years due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. The identification of suitable habitats for these three Ephedra is essential for their protection and cultivation. Thus, this study proposed a new method for planning the best species conservation habitat through fitting errors caused by a single model. The method modeled the current suitable habitats of the three Ephedra species using the MaxEnt model and evaluated the key environmental variables defining the Ephedra distribution based on recorded occurrence data for Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Qinghai. The results showed that human activities were the most important environmental parameter affecting the distribution of the three species, and land cover, ground frost frequency and precipitation accounted for an important proportion of the model evaluation. Second, the results obtained with the MaxEnt model were coupled with the finding from the Marxan model to identify priority conservation areas for the three Ephedra species. The results revealed that the most suitable habitats for E. sinica were mainly concentrated in eastern and central Inner Mongolia, E. intermedia was relatively distributed in southern and central Gansu, and the areas of E. equisetina were mainly distributed in northern Xinjiang. The priority conservation areas for E. sinica , E. intermedia , and E. equisetina were 38068.12 km2, 26446.74 km2 and 36360.6 km2, respectively. The comprehensive analysis indicated that be use of MaxEnt coupled with the Marxan model to model the suitable habitat of these Ephedra species eliminates the distribution errors introduced by each model alone. The protection of wild Ephedra should be a priority, and the scale of the artificial planting of Ephedra should be enlarged. Given these results, the three Ephedra species included in our study urgently need to be subjected to targeted conservation management to ensure the renewal of Ephedra communities and to maintain the supply of medicinal materials. This study provides a useful reference for the protection and cultivation of these three Ephedra. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) with high altitude and low temperature is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and has recently experienced continuous warming. The species distribution on the QTP has undergone significant changes especially an upward shift with global warming in the past decades. In this study, two dominant trees (Picea crassifolia Kom and Sabina przewalskii Kom) and one dominant shrub (Potentilla parvifolia Fisch) were selected and their potential distributions using the MaxEnt model during three periods (current, the 2050s and the 2070s) were predicted. The predictions were based on four shared socio-economic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, namely, SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0, SSP8.5. The predicted current potential distribution of three species was basically located in the northeastern of QTP, and the distribution of three species was most impacted by aspect, elevation, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, Subsoil CEC (clay), Subsoil bulk density and Subsoil CEC (soil). There were significant differences in the potential distribution of three species under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s including expanding, shifting, and shrinking. The total suitable habitat for Picea crassifolia shrank under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and enlarged under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. On the contrary, the total suitable habitat for Sabina przewalskii enlarged under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and shrank under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The total suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia continued to increase with SSP2.6 to SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The average elevation in potentially suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia all increased except under SSP8.5 in the 2050s. Our study provides an important reference for the conservation of Picea crassifolia, Sabina przewalskii, Potentilla parvifolia and other dominant plant species on the QTP under future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Zingiber species distribution and richness were studied based on accession records. • Key bioclimatic determinants of Zingiber species distribution were identified. • Present and future potential distribution of Zingiber species were examined. • Some species may will be considerably reduced, necessitating conservation efforts. Climate change has a crucial impact on plant resources distribution, especially on agricultural crops. Species belonging to genus Zingiber are important crop resources in China, and their rhizomes are widely used in medicine and food. In this study, the ecological distribution and richness of the genus Zingiber were analyzed using a DIVA-GIS analysis of 967 georeferenced herbarium records to produce present and future distribution simulations using the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the genus Zingiber is widely distributed in 28 provinces in China, with the greatest richness in Guangxi, Guangdong, and Yunnan. Based on our model, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most significant bioclimatic variables controlling the distribution of five selected Zingiber species. Future climate change will likely result in the increase of suitable habitat area for Zingiber officinale by 2.85%, but dramatically decrease that for Zingiber striolatum by 18.04%, Zingiber zerumbet by 17.87%, Zingiber corallinum by 12.40%, and Zingiber mioga by 9.46%. Thus, conservation measures should be taken to preserve these valuable resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]