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A direct data-driven iterative algorithm is developed to accurately estimate the $H_\infty$ norm of a linear time-invariant system from continuous operation, i.e., without resetting the system. The main technical step involves a reversed-circulant matrix that can be evaluated in a model-free setting by performing experiments on the real system., Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures

Parameter estimation in statistics and system identification relies on data that may contain sensitive information. To protect this sensitive information, the notion of \emph{differential privacy} (DP) has been proposed, which enforces confidentiality by introducing randomization in the estimates. Standard algorithms for differentially private estimation are based on adding an appropriate amount of noise to the output of a traditional point estimation method. This leads to an accuracy-privacy trade off, as adding more noise reduces the accuracy while increasing privacy. In this paper, we propose a new Unified Bayes Private Point (UBaPP) approach to Bayes point estimation of the unknown parameters of a data generating mechanism under a DP constraint, that achieves a better accuracy-privacy trade off than traditional approaches. We verify the performance of our approach on a simple numerical example.

$\ell_1$ mean filtering is a conventional, optimization-based method to estimate the positions of jumps in a piecewise constant signal perturbed by additive noise. In this method, the $\ell_1$ norm penalizes sparsity of the first-order derivative of the signal. Theoretical results, however, show that in some situations, which can occur frequently in practice, even when the jump amplitudes tend to $\infty$, the conventional method identifies false change points. This issue is referred to as stair-casing problem and restricts practical importance of $\ell_1$ mean filtering. In this paper, sparsity is penalized more tightly than the $\ell_1$ norm by exploiting a certain class of nonconvex functions, while the strict convexity of the consequent optimization problem is preserved. This results in a higher performance in detecting change points. To theoretically justify the performance improvements over $\ell_1$ mean filtering, deterministic and stochastic sufficient conditions for exact change point recovery are derived. In particular, theoretical results show that in the stair-casing problem, our approach might be able to exclude the false change points, while $\ell_1$ mean filtering may fail. A number of numerical simulations assist to show superiority of our method over $\ell_1$ mean filtering and another state-of-the-art algorithm that promotes sparsity tighter than the $\ell_1$ norm. Specifically, it is shown that our approach can consistently detect change points when the jump amplitudes become sufficiently large, while the two other competitors cannot., Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing

We propose a novel approach to input design for identification of nonlinear state space models. The optimal input sequence is obtained by maximizing a scalar cost function of the Fisher information matrix. Since the Fisher information matrix is unavailable in closed form, it is estimated using particle methods. In addition, we make use of Gaussian process optimization to find the optimal input and to mitigate the problem of a large computational cost incurred by the particle filter, as the method reduces the number of functional evaluations. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the performance of the resulting algorithm., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures

Hidden Markov models have successfully been applied as models of discrete time series in many fields. Often, when applied in practice, the parameters of these models have to be estimated. The currently predominating identification methods, such as maximum-likelihood estimation and especially expectation-maximization, are iterative and prone to have problems with local minima. A non-iterative method employing a spectral subspace-like approach has recently been proposed in the machine learning literature. This paper evaluates the performance of this algorithm, and compares it to the performance of the expectation-maximization algorithm, on a number of numerical examples. We find that the performance is mixed; it successfully identifies some systems with relatively few available observations, but fails completely for some systems even when a large amount of observations is available. An open question is how this discrepancy can be explained. We provide some indications that it could be related to how well-conditioned some system parameters are., Comment: This paper is accepted and will be published in The Proceedings of the 17th IFAC Symposium on System Identification (SYSID 2015), Beijing, China, 2015

The aim of this paper is to develop a method to estimate high order FIR and ARX models using least squares with re-weighted nuclear norm regularization. Typically, the choice of the tuning parameter in the reweighting scheme is computationally expensive, hence we propose the use of the SPARSEVA (SPARSe Estimation based on a VAlidation criterion) framework to overcome this problem. Furthermore, we suggest the use of the prediction error criterion (PEC) to select the tuning parameter in the SPARSEVA algorithm. Numerical examples demonstrate the veracity of this method which has close ties with the traditional technique of cross validation, but using much less computations., Comment: This paper is accepted and will be published in The Proceedings of the 17th IFAC Symposium on System Identification (SYSID 2015), Beijing, China, 2015

This paper concerns model reduction of dynamical systems using the nuclear norm of the Hankel matrix to make a trade-off between model fit and model complexity. This results in a convex optimization problem where this trade-off is determined by one crucial design parameter. The main contribution is a methodology to approximately calculate all solutions up to a certain tolerance to the model reduction problem as a function of the design parameter. This is called the regularization path in sparse estimation and is a very important tool in order to find the appropriate balance between fit and complexity. We extend this to the more complicated nuclear norm case. The key idea is to determine when to exactly calculate the optimal solution using an upper bound based on the so-called duality gap. Hence, by solving a fixed number of optimization problems the whole regularization path up to a given tolerance can be efficiently computed. We illustrate this approach on some numerical examples.

We propose an extended method for experiment design in nonlinear state space models. The proposed input design technique optimizes a scalar cost function of the information matrix, by computing the optimal stationary probability mass function (pmf) from which an input sequence is sampled. The feasible set of the stationary pmf is a polytope, allowing it to be expressed as a convex combination of its extreme points. The extreme points in the feasible set of pmf's can be computed using graph theory. Therefore, the final information matrix can be approximated as a convex combination of the information matrices associated with each extreme point. For nonlinear systems, the information matrices for each extreme point can be computed by using particle methods. Numerical examples show that the proposed technique can be successfully employed for experiment design in nonlinear systems., Comment: Accepted for publication in the 19th World Congress of the International Federation of Automatic Control, Cape Town, South Africa. Six pages, three figures

In this article a new algorithm for the design of stationary input sequences for system identification is presented. The stationary input signal is generated by optimizing an approximation of a scalar function of the information matrix, based on stationary input sequences generated from prime cycles, which describe the set of finite Markov chains of a given order. This method can be used for solving input design problems for nonlinear systems. In particular it can handle amplitude constraints on the input. Numerical examples show that the new algorithm is computationally attractive and that is consistent with previously reported results., Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in the 52nd IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, Florence, Italy (CDC 2013)

This contribution considers one central aspect of experiment design in system identification. When a control design is based on an estimated model, the achievable performance is related to the quality of the estimate. The degradation in control performance due to errors in the estimated model is measured by an application cost function. In order to use an optimization based input design method, a convex approximation of the set of models that atisfies the control specification is required. The standard approach is to use a quadratic approximation of the application cost function, where the main computational effort is to find the corresponding Hessian matrix. Our main contribution is an alternative approach for this problem, which uses the structure of the underlying optimal control problem to considerably reduce the computations needed to find the application set. This technique allows the use of applications oriented input design for MPC on much more complex plants. The approach is numerically evaluated on a distillation control problem.