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Controllability of complex networks has been a hot topic in recent years. Real networks regarded as interdependent networks are always coupled together by multiple networks. The cascading process of interdependent networks including interdependent failure and overload failure will destroy the robustness of controllability for the whole network. Therefore, the optimization of the robustness of interdependent network controllability is of great importance in the research area of complex networks. In this paper, based on the model of interdependent networks constructed first, we determine the cascading process under different proportions of node attacks. Then, the structural controllability of interdependent networks is measured by the minimum driver nodes. Furthermore, we propose a parameter which can be obtained by the structure and minimum driver set of interdependent networks under different proportions of node attacks and analyze the robustness for interdependent network controllability. Finally, we optimize the robustness of interdependent network controllability by redundant design including node backup and redundancy edge backup and improve the redundant design by proposing different strategies according to their cost. Comparative strategies of redundant design are conducted to find the best strategy. Results shows that node backup and redundancy edge backup can indeed decrease those nodes suffering from failure and improve the robustness of controllability. Considering the cost of redundant design, we should choose BBS (betweenness-based strategy) or DBS (degree based strategy) for node backup and HDF(high degree first) for redundancy edge backup. Above all, our proposed strategies are feasible and effective at improving the robustness of interdependent network controllability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traffic surveillance systems are interesting to many researchers to improve the traffic control and reduce the risk caused by accidents. In this area, many published works are only concerned about vehicle detection in normal conditions. The camera may vibrate due to wind or bridge movement. Detection and tracking of vehicles is a very difficult task when we have bad weather conditions in winter (snowy, rainy, windy, etc.), dusty weather in arid and semi-arid regions, at night, etc. Also, it is very important to consider speed of vehicles in the complicated weather condition. In this paper, we improved our method to track and count vehicles in dusty weather with vibrating camera. For this purpose, we used a background subtraction based strategy mixed with an extra processing to segment vehicles. In this paper, the extra processing included the analysis of the headlight size, location, and area. In our work, tracking was done between consecutive frames via a generalized particle filter to detect the vehicle and pair the headlights using the connected component analysis. So, vehicle counting was performed based on the pairing result, with Centroid of each blob we calculated distance between two frames by simple formula and hence dividing it by the time between two frames obtained from the video. Our proposed method was tested on several video surveillance records in different conditions such as dusty or foggy weather, vibrating camera, and in roads with medium-level traffic volumes. The results showed that the new proposed method performed better than our previously published method and other methods, including the Kalman filter or Gaussian model, in different traffic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The p value obtained from a significance test provides no information about the magnitude or importance of the underlying phenomenon. Therefore, additional reporting of effect size is often recommended. Effect sizes are theoretically independent from sample size. Yet this may not hold true empirically: non-independence could indicate publication bias. Methods: We investigate whether effect size is independent from sample size in psychological research. We randomly sampled 1,000 psychological articles from all areas of psychological research. We extracted p values, effect sizes, and sample sizes of all empirical papers, and calculated the correlation between effect size and sample size, and investigated the distribution of p values. Results: We found a negative correlation of r = −.45 [95% CI: −.53; −.35] between effect size and sample size. In addition, we found an inordinately high number of p values just passing the boundary of significance. Additional data showed that neither implicit nor explicit power analysis could account for this pattern of findings. Conclusion: The negative correlation between effect size and samples size, and the biased distribution of p values indicate pervasive publication bias in the entire field of psychology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of the Metro network in China, the greatly increased route alternatives make passengers’ route choice behavior and passenger flow assignment more complicated, which presents challenges to the operation management. In this paper, a path sized logit model is adopted to analyze passengers’ route choice preferences considering such parameters as in-vehicle time, number of transfers, and transfer time. Moreover, the “perceived transfer threshold” is defined and included in the utility function to reflect the penalty difference caused by transfer time on passengers’ perceived utility under various numbers of transfers. Next, based on the revealed preference data collected in the Guangzhou Metro, the proposed model is calibrated. The appropriate perceived transfer threshold value and the route choice preferences are analyzed. Finally, the model is applied to a personalized route planning case to demonstrate the engineering practicability of route choice behavior analysis. The results show that the introduction of the perceived transfer threshold is helpful to improve the model’s explanatory abilities. In addition, personalized route planning based on route choice preferences can meet passengers’ diversified travel demands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Staff education is considered key to quality of early childhood education and care (ECEC) programs. However, findings about associations between staff education and children’s outcomes have been inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of associations between ECEC staff education and child outcomes. Searches of Medline, PsycINFO, and ERIC, websites of large datasets and reference sections of all retrieved articles were conducted. Eligible studies provided a statistical link between staff education and child outcomes for preschool-aged children in ECEC programs. Titles, abstracts and paper reviews as well as all data extraction were conducted by two independent raters. Of the 823 studies reviewed for eligibility, 39 met our inclusion criteria. Research in this area is observational in nature and subject to the inherent biases of that research design. Results from our systematic review were hampered by heterogeneity in how staff education was defined, variability in whose education was measured and the child outcomes that were assessed. However, overall the qualitative summary indicates that associations between staff education and childhood outcomes are non-existent to very borderline positive. In our meta-analysis of more homogeneous studies we identified certain positive, albeit very weak, associations between staff education and children’s language outcomes (specifically, vocabulary and letter word identification) and no significant association with a mathematics outcome (WJ Applied Problems). Thus, our findings suggest that within the range of education levels found in the existing literature, education is not a key driver of child outcomes. However, since we only explored levels of education that were reported in the literature, our findings cannot be used to argue for lowering education standards in ECEC settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main questions in the humanities is how cultures and artistic expressions change over time. While a number of researchers have used quantitative computational methods to study historical changes in literature, music, and cinema, our paper offers the first quantitative analysis of historical changes in visual art created by users of a social online network. We propose a number of computational methods for the analysis of temporal development of art images. We then apply these methods to a sample of 270,000 artworks created between 2001 and 2010 by users of the largest social network for art—DeviantArt (). We investigate changes in subjects, techniques, sizes, proportions and also selected visual characteristics of images. Because these artworks are classified by their creators into two general categories—Traditional Art and Digital Art—we are also able to investigate if the use of digital tools has had a significant effect on the content and form of artworks. Our analysis reveals a number of gradual and systematic changes over a ten-year period in artworks belonging to both categories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are becoming ubiquitous in everyday life due to their applications in weather forecasting, surveillance, implantable sensors for health monitoring and other plethora of applications. WSN is equipped with hundreds and thousands of small sensor nodes. As the size of a sensor node decreases, critical issues such as limited energy, computation time and limited memory become even more highlighted. In such a case, network lifetime mainly depends on efficient use of available resources. Organizing nearby nodes into clusters make it convenient to efficiently manage each cluster as well as the overall network. In this paper, we extend our previous work of grid-based hybrid network deployment approach, in which merge and split technique has been proposed to construct network topology. Constructing topology through our proposed technique, in this paper we have used analytical network process (ANP) model for cluster head selection in WSN. Five distinct parameters: distance from nodes (DistNode), residual energy level (REL), distance from centroid (DistCent), number of times the node has been selected as cluster head (TCH) and merged node (MN) are considered for CH selection. The problem of CH selection based on these parameters is tackled as a multi criteria decision system, for which ANP method is used for optimum cluster head selection. Main contribution of this work is to check the applicability of ANP model for cluster head selection in WSN. In addition, sensitivity analysis is carried out to check the stability of alternatives (available candidate nodes) and their ranking for different scenarios. The simulation results show that the proposed method outperforms existing energy efficient clustering protocols in terms of optimum CH selection and minimizing CH reselection process that results in extending overall network lifetime. This paper analyzes that ANP method used for CH selection with better understanding of the dependencies of different components involved in the evaluation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vision-based vehicle detection is an important issue for advanced driver assistance systems. In this paper, we presented an improved multi-vehicle detection and tracking method using cascade Adaboost and Adaptive Kalman filter(AKF) with target identity awareness. A cascade Adaboost classifier using Haar-like features was built for vehicle detection, followed by a more comprehensive verification process which could refine the vehicle hypothesis in terms of both location and dimension. In vehicle tracking, each vehicle was tracked with independent identity by an Adaptive Kalman filter in collaboration with a data association approach. The AKF adaptively adjusted the measurement and process noise covariance through on-line stochastic modelling to compensate the dynamics changes. The data association correctly assigned different detections with tracks using global nearest neighbour(GNN) algorithm while considering the local validation. During tracking, a temporal context based track management was proposed to decide whether to initiate, maintain or terminate the tracks of different objects, thus suppressing the sparse false alarms and compensating the temporary detection failures. Finally, the proposed method was tested on various challenging real roads, and the experimental results showed that the vehicle detection performance was greatly improved with higher accuracy and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Labeling theory suggests that criminal justice interventions amplify offending behavior. Theories of intergenerational transmission suggest why children of convicted parents have a higher risk of offending. This paper combines these two perspectives and investigates whether labeling effects might be stronger for children of convicted parents. We first investigated labeling effects within the individual: we examined the impact of a conviction between ages 19–26 on self-reported offending behavior between 27–32 while controlling for self-reported behavior between 15–18. Our results show that a conviction predicted someone’s later self-reported offending behavior, even when previous offending behavior was taken into account. Second, we investigated whether having a convicted parent influenced this association. When we added this interaction to the analysis, a labeling effect was only visible among people with convicted parents. This supports the idea of cumulative disadvantage: Labeling seems stronger for people who are already in a disadvantaged situation having a convicted parent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indicators of compliance and efficiency in combatting money laundering, collected by EUROSTAT, are plagued with shortcomings. In this paper, I have carried out a forensic analysis on a 2003–2010 dataset of indicators of compliance and efficiency in combatting money laundering, that European Union member states self-reported to EUROSTAT, and on the basis of which, their efforts were evaluated. I used Benford’s law to detect any anomalous statistical patterns and found that statistical anomalies were also consistent with strategic manipulation. According to Benford’s law, if we pick a random sample of numbers representing natural processes, and look at the distribution of the first digits of these numbers, we see that, contrary to popular belief, digit 1 occurs most often, then digit 2, and so on, with digit 9 occurring in less than 5% of the sample. Without prior knowledge of Benford’s law, since people are not intuitively good at creating truly random numbers, deviations thereof can capture strategic alterations. In order to eliminate other sources of deviation, I have compared deviations in situations where incentives and opportunities for manipulation existed and in situations where they did not. While my results are not a conclusive proof of strategic manipulation, they signal that countries that faced incentives and opportunities to misinform the international community about their efforts to combat money laundering may have manipulated these indicators. Finally, my analysis points to the high potential for disruption that the manipulation of national statistics has, and calls for the acknowledgment that strategic manipulation can be an unintended consequence of the international community’s pressure on countries to put combatting money laundering on the top of their national agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of contagion among economies is a relevant issue in economics. The canonical model of contagion is an alternative in this case. Given the existence of endogenous variables in the model, instrumental variables can be used to decrease the bias of the OLS estimator. In the presence of heteroskedastic disturbances this paper proposes the use of conditional volatilities as instruments. Simulation is used to show that the homoscedastic and heteroskedastic estimators which use them as instruments have small bias. These estimators are preferable in comparison with the OLS estimator and their asymptotic distribution can be used to construct confidence intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Numerous factor analytic studies consistently support a distinction between two symptom domains of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity. Both dimensions show high internal consistency and moderate to strong correlations with each other. However, it is not clear what drives this strong correlation. The aim of this paper is to address this issue. Method: We applied a sophisticated approach for causal discovery on three independent data sets of scores of the two ADHD dimensions in NeuroIMAGE (total N = 675), ADHD-200 (N = 245), and IMpACT (N = 164), assessed by different raters and instruments, and further used information on gender or a genetic risk haplotype. Results: In all data sets we found strong statistical evidence for the same pattern: the clear dependence between hyperactivity/impulsivity symptom level and an established genetic factor (either gender or risk haplotype) vanishes when one conditions upon inattention symptom level. Under reasonable assumptions, e.g., that phenotypes do not cause genotypes, a causal model that is consistent with this pattern contains a causal path from inattention to hyperactivity/impulsivity. Conclusions: The robust dependency cancellation observed in three different data sets suggests that inattention is a driving factor for hyperactivity/impulsivity. This causal hypothesis can be further validated in intervention studies. Our model suggests that interventions that affect inattention will also have an effect on the level of hyperactivity/impulsivity. On the other hand, interventions that affect hyperactivity/impulsivity would not change the level of inattention. This causal model may explain earlier findings on heritable factors causing ADHD reported in the study of twins with learning difficulties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 wiped out US$37 trillions across global financial markets, this value is equivalent to the combined GDPs of the United States and the European Union in 2014. The defining moment of this crisis was the failure of Lehman Brothers, which precipitated the October 2008 crash and the Asian Correction (March 2009). Had the Federal Reserve seen these crashes coming, they might have bailed out Lehman Brothers, and prevented the crashes altogether. In this paper, we show that some of these market crashes (like the Asian Correction) can be predicted, if we assume that a large number of adaptive traders employing competing trading strategies. As the number of adherents for some strategies grow, others decline in the constantly changing strategy space. When a strategy group grows into a giant component, trader actions become increasingly correlated and this is reflected in the stock price. The fragmentation of this giant component will leads to a market crash. In this paper, we also derived the mean-field market crash forecast equation based on a model of fusions and fissions in the trading strategy space. By fitting the continuous returns of 20 stocks traded in Singapore Exchange to the market crash forecast equation, we obtain crash predictions ranging from end October 2008 to mid-February 2009, with early warning four to six months prior to the crashes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although studies have increasingly linked air pollution to specific health outcomes, less well understood is how public perceptions of air quality respond to changing pollutant levels. The growing availability of air pollution measurements and the proliferation of social media provide an opportunity to gauge public discussion of air quality conditions. In this paper, we consider particulate matter (PM) measurements from four Chinese megacities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu) together with 112 million posts on Weibo (a popular Chinese microblogging system) from corresponding days in 2011–2013 to identify terms whose frequency was most correlated with PM levels. These correlations are used to construct an Air Discussion Index (ADI) for estimating daily PM based on the content of Weibo posts. In Beijing, the Chinese city with the most PM as measured by U.S. Embassy monitor stations, we found a strong correlation (R = 0.88) between the ADI and measured PM. In other Chinese cities with lower pollution levels, the correlation was weaker. Nonetheless, our results show that social media may be a useful proxy measurement for pollution, particularly when traditional measurement stations are unavailable, censored or misreported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traffic state estimation from the floating car system is a challenging problem. The low penetration rate and random distribution make available floating car samples usually cover part space and time points of the road networks. To obtain a wide range of traffic state from the floating car system, many methods have been proposed to estimate the traffic state for the uncovered links. However, these methods cannot provide traffic state of the entire road networks. In this paper, the traffic state estimation is transformed to solve a missing data imputation problem, and the tensor completion framework is proposed to estimate missing traffic state. A tensor is constructed to model traffic state in which observed entries are directly derived from floating car system and unobserved traffic states are modeled as missing entries of constructed tensor. The constructed traffic state tensor can represent spatial and temporal correlations of traffic data and encode the multi-way properties of traffic state. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it can fully mine and utilize the multi-dimensional inherent correlations of traffic state. We tested the proposed approach on a well calibrated simulation network. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed approach yield reliable traffic state estimation from very sparse floating car data, particularly when dealing with the floating car penetration rate is below 1%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sample sizes for randomized controlled trials are typically based on power calculations. They require us to specify values for parameters such as the treatment effect, which is often difficult because we lack sufficient prior information. The objective of this paper is to provide an alternative design which circumvents the need for sample size calculation. In a simulation study, we compared a meta-experiment approach to the classical approach to assess treatment efficacy. The meta-experiment approach involves use of meta-analyzed results from 3 randomized trials of fixed sample size, 100 subjects. The classical approach involves a single randomized trial with the sample size calculated on the basis of an a priori-formulated hypothesis. For the sample size calculation in the classical approach, we used observed articles to characterize errors made on the formulated hypothesis. A prospective meta-analysis of data from trials of fixed sample size provided the same precision, power and type I error rate, on average, as the classical approach. The meta-experiment approach may provide an alternative design which does not require a sample size calculation and addresses the essential need for study replication; results may have greater external validity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To characterize the impact of widespread inventory management policies on stock-outs of essential drugs in Zambia’s health clinics and develop related recommendations. Methods: Daily clinic storeroom stock levels of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) products in 2009–2010 were captured in 145 facilities through photography and manual transcription of paper forms, then used to determine historical stock-out levels and estimate demand patterns. Delivery lead-times and estimates of monthly facility accessibility were obtained through worker surveys. A simulation model was constructed and validated for predictive accuracy against historical stock-outs, then used to evaluate various changes potentially affecting product availability. Findings: While almost no stock-outs of AL products were observed during Q4 2009 consistent with primary analysis, up to 30% of surveyed facilities stocked out of some AL product during Q1 2010 despite ample inventory being simultaneously available at the national warehouse. Simulation experiments closely reproduced these results and linked them to the use of average past monthly issues and failure to capture lead-time variability in current inventory control policies. Several inventory policy enhancements currently recommended by USAID | DELIVER were found to have limited impact on product availability. Conclusions: Inventory control policies widely recommended and used for distributing medicines in sub-Saharan Africa directly account for a substantial fraction of stock-outs observed in common situations involving demand seasonality and facility access interruptions. Developing central capabilities in peripheral demand forecasting and inventory control is critical. More rigorous independent peer-reviewed research on pharmaceutical supply chain management in low-income countries is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years social and news media have increasingly been used to explain patterns in disease activity and progression. Social media data, principally from the Twitter network, has been shown to correlate well with official disease case counts. This fact has been exploited to provide advance warning of outbreak detection, forecasting of disease levels and the ability to predict the likelihood of individuals developing symptoms. In this paper we introduce DEFENDER, a software system that integrates data from social and news media and incorporates algorithms for outbreak detection, situational awareness and forecasting. As part of this system we have developed a technique for creating a location network for any country or region based purely on Twitter data. We also present a disease nowcasting (forecasting the current but still unknown level) approach which leverages counts from multiple symptoms, which was found to improve the nowcasting accuracy by 37 percent over a model that used only previous case data. Finally we attempt to forecast future levels of symptom activity based on observed user movement on Twitter, finding a moderate gain of 5 percent over a time series forecasting model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There appears to be little doubt as to the existence of an intentional technological resolve to produce convergent tools during the Middle Palaeolithic. However, the use of these pieces as pointed tools is still subject to debate: i.e., handheld tool vs. hafted tool. Present-day technological analysis has begun to apply new methodologies in order to quantify shape variability and to decipher the role of the morphology of these pieces in relation to function; for instance, geometric morphometric analyses have recently been applied with successful results. This paper presents a study of this type of analysis on 37 convergent tools from level Ga of Payre site (France), dated to MIS 8–7. These pieces are non-standardized knapping products produced by discoidal and orthogonal core technologies. Moreover, macro-wear studies attest to various activities on diverse materials with no evidence of hafting or projectile use. The aim of this paper is to test the geometric morphometric approach on non-standardized artefacts applying the Elliptical Fourier analysis (EFA) to 3D contours and to assess the potential relationship between size and shape, technology and function. This study is innovative in that it is the first time that this method, considered to be a valuable complement for describing technological and functional attributes, is applied to 3D contours of lithic products. Our results show that this methodology ensures a very good degree of accuracy in describing shape variations of the sharp edges of technologically non-standardized convergent tools. EFA on 3D contours indicates variations in deviations of the outline along the third dimension (i.e., dorso-ventrally) and yields quantitative and insightful information on the actual shape variations of tools. Several statistically significant relationships are found between shape variation and use-wear attributes, though the results emphasize the large variability of the shape of the convergent tools, which, in general, does not show a strong direct association with technological features and function. This is in good agreement with the technological context of this chronological period, characterized by a wide diversity of non-standardized tools adapted to multipurpose functions for varied subsistence activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high-dose, alcohol-induced influences on risk perception and loss aversion depend on sex. On the other hand, low-dose alcohol has less effect on risky behavior. However, the effect of low-dose alcohol on subjective valuation of gain or loss and also the effect of placebo (expectancy of alcohol) on risk perception have not been fully investigated. We investigated the effects of low-dose alcohol (0.02 g/100 ml blood alcohol concentration) and placebo effects on subjective risk perception and subjective valuation of uncertain gain and loss in females and males. Participants in the control group and the placebo group were served alcohol-free, wine-flavored beverage and participants of alcohol group were served wine (14% alcohol). The placebo group was not informed that the drink was not alcohol but the control group was informed. Then paper–pencil tasks for subjective risk perception and valuation of gain or loss were performed 45 min after drinking the beverage. The participants were asked to draw the line on a 180 mm scale for each question. The placebo effects as well as the low-dose alcohol effects were observed in subjective valuations of gain or loss. Except for effect of beverages, a gender difference was also observed for subjective likelihood. The females estimated a low-probability loss as more likely and estimated a high-probability gain as less likely than did the males. From the Stevens’ law fitting analysis, the placebo, not alcohol, significantly induced the psychophysical effect of the subjective valuation of gain or loss. These results indicate that the psychological effects of expectancy of alcohol (placebo) could be a major factor in changing the subjective valuation of gain or loss over the pharmacological effects of a small amount of alcohol (like a glass of wine). Furthermore, these results also indicate that gender differences should be taken into account when investigating pharmacological or psychological effect on decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to demonstrate why it is important to correctly account for the (serial dependent) structure of temporal data, we document an apparently spectacular relationship between population size and lexical diversity: for five out of seven investigated languages, there is a strong relationship between population size and lexical diversity of the primary language in this country. We show that this relationship is the result of a misspecified model that does not consider the temporal aspect of the data by presenting a similar but nonsensical relationship between the global annual mean sea level and lexical diversity. Given the fact that in the recent past, several studies were published that present surprising links between different economic, cultural, political and (socio-)demographical variables on the one hand and cultural or linguistic characteristics on the other hand, but seem to suffer from exactly this problem, we explain the cause of the misspecification and show that it has profound consequences. We demonstrate how simple transformation of the time series can often solve problems of this type and argue that the evaluation of the plausibility of a relationship is important in this context. We hope that our paper will help both researchers and reviewers to understand why it is important to use special models for the analysis of data with a natural temporal ordering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper examines the relation between size, accumulation and performance for research grants, where we examine the relation between grant size for Centres of Excellence (CoE) funded by the Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF) and various ex post research performance measures, including impact and shares of highly cited articles. We examine both the relation between size and performance and also how performance for CoEs evolves over the course of grant periods. In terms of dynamics, it appears that performance over the grant period (i.e. 10 years) is falling for the largest CoEs, while it is increasing for those among the smallest half. Overall, multivariate econometric analysis finds evidence that performance is increasing in grant size and over time. In both cases, the relation appears to be non-linear, suggesting that there is a point at which performance peaks. The CoEs have also been very successful in securing additional funding, which can be viewed as a ‘cumulative effect’ of center grants. In terms of new personnel, the far majority of additional funding is spent on early career researchers, hence, this accumulation would appear to have a ‘generational’ dimension, allowing for scientific expertise to be passed on to an increasing number of younger researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Germany, inpatient psychotherapy plays a unique role in the treatment of patients with common mental disorders of higher severity. In addition to psychiatric inpatient services, psychotherapeutic hospital treatment and psychosomatic rehabilitation are offered as independent inpatient treatment options. This meta-analysis aims to provide systematic evidence for psychotherapeutic hospital treatment in Germany regarding its effects on symptomatic and interpersonal impairment. Methodology: Relevant papers were identified by electronic database search and hand search. Randomized controlled trials as well as naturalistic prospective studies (including post-therapy and follow-up assessments) evaluating psychotherapeutic hospital treatment of mentally ill adults in Germany were included. Outcomes were required to be quantified by either the Symptom-Checklist (SCL-90-R or short versions) or the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems (IIP-64 or short versions). Effect sizes (Hedges’ g) were combined using random effect models. Principal Findings: Sixty-seven papers representing 59 studies fulfilled inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis yielded a medium within-group effect size for symptom change at discharge (g = 0.72; 95% CI 0.68–0.76), with a small reduction to follow-up (g = 0.61; 95% CI 0.55–0.68). Regarding interpersonal problems, a small effect size was found at discharge (g = 0.35; 95% CI 0.29–0.41), which increased to follow-up (g = 0.48; 95% CI 0.36–0.60). While higher impairment at intake was associated with a larger effect size in both measures, longer treatment duration was related to lower effect sizes in SCL GSI and to larger effect sizes in IIP Total. Conclusions: Psychotherapeutic hospital treatment may be considered an effective treatment. In accordance with Howard’s phase model of psychotherapy outcome, the present study demonstrated that symptom distress changes more quickly and strongly than interpersonal problems. Preliminary analyses show impairment at intake and treatment duration to be the strongest outcome predictors. Further analyses regarding this relationship are required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese rare earth export policies currently result in accelerating its depletion. Thus adopting an optimal export trade selection strategy is crucial to determining and ultimately identifying the ideal trading partners. This paper introduces a multi-attribute decision-making methodology which is then used to select the optimal trading partner. In the method, an evaluation criteria system is established to assess the seven top trading partners based on three dimensions: political relationships, economic benefits and industrial security. Specifically, a simple additive weighing model derived from an additive utility function is utilized to calculate, rank and select alternatives. Results show that Japan would be the optimal trading partner for Chinese rare earths. The criteria evaluation method of trading partners for China's rare earth exports provides the Chinese government with a tool to enhance rare earth industrial policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Analysts estimating the costs or cost-effectiveness of health interventions requiring hospitalization often cut corners because they lack data and the costs of undertaking full step-down costing studies are high. They sometimes use the costs taken from a single hospital, sometimes use simple rules of thumb for allocating total hospital costs between general inpatient care and the outpatient department, and sometimes use the average cost of an inpatient bed-day instead of a ward-specific cost. Purpose: In this paper we explore for the first time the extent and the causes of variation in ward-specific costs across hospitals, using data from China. We then use the resulting model to show how ward-specific costs for hospitals outside the data set could be estimated using information on the determinants identified in the paper. Methodology: Ward-specific costs estimated using step-down costing methods from 41 hospitals in 12 provinces of China were used. We used seemingly unrelated regressions to identify the determinants of variability in the ratio of the costs of specific wards to that of the outpatient department, and explain how this can be used to generate ward-specific unit costs. Findings: Ward-specific unit costs varied considerably across hospitals, ranging from 1 to 24 times the unit cost in the outpatient department — average unit costs are not a good proxy for costs at specialty wards in general. The most important sources of variability were the number of staff and the level of capacity utilization. Practice Implications: More careful hospital costing studies are clearly needed. In the meantime, we have shown that in China it is possible to estimate ward-specific unit costs taking into account key determinants of variability in costs across wards. This might well be a better alternative than using simple rules of thumb or using estimates from a single study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study discussed in this paper had two principal objectives. The first was to evaluate the distance model of official vocational education and training offered by means of a virtual learning platform. The second was to establish that both on-site classroom and online distance modes of vocational education and training can be seen as complementary in terms of responding to the majority of modern educational needs. We performed a comparative study using data and results gathered over the course of eleven academic years for 1,133 of our students enrolled in an official vocational education and training program, leading to the awarding of a certificate as an Administrative Management Expert. The classes were offered by the Alfonso de Avellaneda Vocational Education and Training School, located in the city of Alcalá de Henares near Madrid, Spain. We offered classes both in traditional classroom mode and through online distance learning. This paper begins with a descriptive analysis of the variables we studied; inferential statistical techniques are subsequently applied in order to study the relationships that help form the basis for the conclusions reached. This study’s results provide evidence that a broad offering of vocational education and training opportunities will facilitate access to such learning for students who require it, regardless of their age, employment status, or personal circumstances, with the online distance mode playing a fundamental role while also yielding results equivalent to those observed for classroom instruction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we review, and elaborate on, the literature on a regression artifact related to Lord’s paradox in a continuous setting. Specifically, the question is whether a continuous property of individuals predicts improvement from training between a pretest and a posttest. If the pretest score is included as a covariate, regression to the mean will lead to biased results if two critical conditions are satisfied: (1) the property is correlated with pretest scores and (2) pretest scores include random errors. We discuss how these conditions apply to the analysis in a published experimental study, the authors of which concluded that linearity of children’s estimations of numerical magnitudes predicts arithmetic learning from a training program. However, the two critical conditions were clearly met in that study. In a reanalysis we find that the bias in the method can fully account for the effect found in the original study. In other words, data are consistent with the null hypothesis that numerical magnitude estimations are unrelated to arithmetic learning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several recent studies have described a strong correlation between nutritional or economic data and the number of Nobel awards obtained across a large range of countries. This sheds new light on the intriguing question of the key predictors of Nobel awards chances. However, all these studies have been focused on a single predictor and were only based on simple correlation and/or linear model analysis. The main aim of the present study was thus to clarify this debate by simultaneously exploring the influence of food consumption (cacao, milk, and wine), economic variables (gross domestic product) and scientific activity (number of publications and research expenditure) on Nobel awards. An innovative statistical analysis, hierarchical partitioning, has been used because it enables us to reduce collinearity problems by determining and comparing the independent contribution of each factor. Our results clearly indicate that a country's number of Nobel awards can be mainly predicted by its scientific achievements such as number of publications and research expenditure. Conversely, dietary habits and the global economy variable are only minor predictors; this finding contradicts the conclusions of previous studies. Dedicating a large proportion of the GDP to research and to the publication of a high number of scientific papers would thus create fertile ground for obtaining Nobel awards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tie strength and tags have been separately suggested as possible attributes for photo access controls in Social Network Services. However, an evaluation is missing about the benefits/drawbacks of adding one or both of these attributes to the ones already used in access controls for Social Network Services (groups and individuals). In this paper, we describe an experiment with 48 participants using access controls that include tie strength and tags (separately and simultaneously) together with attributes for groups and individuals. We analyze the results using several quantitative and qualitative metrics. We find that users consider these two new attributes useful in defining their sharing policies, and they prefer to employ access controls that consider tags and tie strength jointly. Specifically, users believe that tie strength improves policy understandability and that tags help them define sharing policies faster. However, we also observe that when users employ these two attributes they tend to make more mistakes in terms of the resulting sharing policy. We hypothesize that this could be caused by the lack of experience using tie strength and tags in access controls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates and compares the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty under inflation targeting and, alternatively, a conventional fixed exchange rate system, for a group of emerging countries. To do so we estimate GARCH in mean models and we find that there is a bi-directional relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty under the two monetary regimes. It is also found that the fixed exchange rate regime has no impact on average inflation and inflation inertia, while inflation targeting has been successful at lowering both average inflation and inflation persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adult illiteracy is a major problem worldwide especially in developing countries. Adult Basic Education (ABE) programs working in this context are not very effective due to lack of motivation for the people who are not literate. The reason is inadequate learning content and content delivery methods. This situation calls for developing novel learning content and a learner-directed content delivery approach. This paper presents an exploratory study investigating the use of the Environmental Print Material (EPM) as learning content for the non-literate population of Pakistan. The EPM content is presented to the adult non-literate population in two ethnographic studies. The most frequently recognized content is selected and utilized as learning content in a Computer Assisted Learning (CAL) application. An empirical study is conducted upon two groups with 107 participants to compare the EPM-based learning content with Traditional Learning Content (TLC). As many as 54 participants participated in the experimental group (presented with EPM-based learning content), whereas 53 participants took part in the control group (presented with TLC content). The results reveal that the experimental group performed significantly better compared to the control group in recognition, pronunciation, and recall of the presented content. The meta-analysis of the results shows a large effect size of (1.05) with confidence interval in the range (0.798–1.315). The results claim that the EPM has potential to be considered as learning content in the ABE programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistics and Epidemiology are crucial both in clinical decision-making and clinical research. Teaching these disciplines in a Bachelor’s Degree in Medicine is a significant challenge. In this paper, we aim to describe two participatory teaching methods used in a yearlong second-year course that includes both Epidemiology and Statistics, and to analyze how these two methodologies affect the students’ perception of the course and their abilities related to these subjects. Both methodologies consist in carrying out a specific practical activity. The first practical activity is carried out using a website and aims to help students understand concepts and interpret information; the second involves analyzing a database using a statistical package and, subsequently, producing a scientific report. In addition, we prepared a questionnaire to find out the students’ perception of these issues. The nine questionnaire items were assessed using a rating scale and adapted to characteristics of the course, which covers Epidemiology and Statistics in an integrated manner. Then we assessed the differences in perception before and after the activities were carried out. The results show that the students’ perception improved significantly in the following items: “importance of Statistics and Epidemiology in Medicine”; “usefulness in clinical practice”; “understanding concepts”; “ability to perform a statistical analysis”; and “ability to sort data”. The difference was not significant in the remaining four items. In conclusion, the students’ perception of their ability in Statistics and Epidemiology significantly improved after completing the practical activities, and their perception of importance and usefulness of these subjects also improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Railway seat inventory control aims to maximize ticket sale profits by determining a selling policy on the reservation horizon. This paper introduces a dynamic bid price approach in railway seat inventory control problem. Multi-dimensional demand is taken into consideration in modeling the problem, in which passenger transfer is our main focus. A new approximate approach is designed to this problem. Numerical examples are presented to evaluate the efficiency of this approach. Simulation experiments are conducted to verify the impact of transfer under different scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the DCSK system under jamming environment. We consider both fast and slow switching pulse jamming (PJ). We derive approximations of the system bit error rates (BERs) in analytic expressions containing only well-known special functions, from which we show that for both jamming cases increasing the spreading factor can enhance the BER. In addition, we reveal that under the fast switching PJ, the BER does not depend on the jamming duty cycle ρ when ρ ≤ 0.5, however when ρ > 0.5, increasing its value degrades the BER. Moreover, we find out that under the slow switching PJ, increasing ρ may either enhance or degrade the BER. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supplier selection is one of the critical processes in supplier chain management which is associated with the flow of goods and services from the supplier of raw material to the final consumer. The purpose of this paper is to present a novel approach and improves the supplier selection in a multi-item/multi-supplier environment, and provide the importance and the reliability of the criteria by handling vagueness and imperfection of information in decision making process. First, principal component analysis (PCA) method is used to reduce the number of supplier selection criteria in pharmaceutical companies. Next, using the most important criteria resulted from the PCA method, the importance and the reliability of the selected criteria are assessed by a group of decision-maker (DM). Then, the importance value of each supplier with respect to each product is obtained via the Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) based on the concept of Z-numbers called Z-TOPSIS. Finally, these values are used as inputs in a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) to determine the suppliers and the amount of the products provided from the related suppliers. To validate the proposed methodology, an application is performed in a pharmaceutical company. The results show that the proposed method could provide promising results in decision making process more appropriately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between oil price and investor sentiment is crucial to economic activity. Disentangling the shocks in crude oil price by structural VAR model, this paper analyzes the interaction between oil price shocks and investor sentiment by linear and nonlinear causality approach, TVP-VAR mode and NARDL model. The results reveal that changes of oil-specific demand shock not only linearly but also nonlinearly cause changes of investor sentiment while there is no significant link between other oil shocks (oil supply shock and aggregate demand shock) and investor sentiment. In addition, the study discovers that the oil-specific demand shock generally positively affects investor sentiment over time, and it has positive and asymmetric effects on investor sentiment in the short-run. In other words, it is the negative oil-specific demand shock rather than the positive component that has the significant impact on investor sentiment for short-run. This study could enrich current theories on the interaction between oil price and investor sentiment and serve as a supplement to current literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though chronic stress is a pervasive problem in contemporary societies and is known to potentially precede both adverse psychological as well as physiological conditions, its effects on decision making have not been systematically investigated. In this paper, we focus on the relation between self-reported chronic stress and self-reported as well as behaviorally shown social preferences. We measured chronic stress with the Trier Inventory for Chronic Stress. To determine social preferences, participants played a double anonymous dictator game. In order to control for the robustness of social preferences we employed a 2x2x2x2 design where we manipulated four variables: the frame (Give to Recipient vs. Take from Recipient), the decision maker’s gender (Female vs. Male), the recipient’s gender (Female vs. Male), and the nature of the reward (Real vs. Hypothetical). Results show that perceived chronic stress is not significantly related to social preferences in monetarily rewarded dictator decisions for either gender. However, women’s displayed preferences for hypothetical rewards are negatively correlated to chronic stress levels. This indicates that higher chronic stress in women is associated with lower hypothetical transfers but not with altered actual behavior as compared to non-stressed women. For men, we do not observe such effects. Our findings suggest that, while chronic stress leaves social preferences unaffected in an incentive compatible task, it might foster what could be interpreted as a decrease in self-image promotion in women. Thus, we conclude that in a thoroughly controlled behavioral task differences in reported chronic stress do not entail differences in social preferences, but relate to variation in hypothetical decisions for women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Depression after stroke is common and is associated with poorer recovery. Risk factors such as gender, age and stroke severity are established, but it is unclear whether factors from earlier in life might also contribute. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, PsycINFO, EMBASE and meta-analysed all available evidence on childhood (premorbid) IQ, socioeconomic status (SES), education and stroke in adulthood. We included all studies reporting data on >50 patients, calculating overall odds ratios (OR), mean difference, correlation, 95% confidence intervals (CI) and 95% predictive intervals (PI) using random effects methods. We quality assessed all studies, performed sensitivity analyses, assessed heterogeneity and publication bias. Results: We identified 33 studies including 2,664 participants with post-stroke depression and 5,460 without (314 participants not classified). Low education (< = 8 years) was associated with post-stroke depression in studies which defined depression as score of mild and above on a depression rating scale (OR 1.47 95% CI 1.10–1.97, p<0.01) but not in studies where depression was defined as severe depressive symptoms or a clinical diagnosis of major depression (OR 1.04 95% CI 0.90–1.31, p = 0.60). Low education was not associated with an increased risk for post-stroke depression in studies that adjusted for age and sex (OR 0.86 95% CI 0.50–1.48 p = 0.58). Those with post-stroke depression had fewer years of education than those without post-stroke depression (MD 0.68 95% CI 0.05–1.31 p = 0.04). Few studies adjusted for vascular risk factors or stroke severity. Heterogeneity between studies was moderate and was partly explained by severity of depression. In the one study identified premorbid IQ did not differ between those with post-stroke depression (mean IQ 10.1.8 SD 9.8) vs those without (mean IQ 104 SD 10.1). There were no studies that examined childhood socioeconomic status and risk of post-stroke depression. Conclusions: Having less education is associated with an increased risk of post-stroke depressive symptoms but with large confidence intervals and heterogeneity. Future studies should explore the relationship between early and late life risk factors to improve risk identification and to target prevention and treatment strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PCA has been widely used in many fields to detect dominant principle components, but it ignores the information embedded in the remaining components. As a supplement to PCA, we propose the General Component Analysis (GCA). The inverse participation ratios (IPRs) are used to identify the global components (GCs) and localized components (LCs). The mean values of the IPRs derived from the shuffled data are taken as the natural threshold, which is exquisite and novel. In this paper, the Chinese corporate bond market is analyzed as an example. We propose a novel network method to divide time periods based on micro data, which performs better in capturing the time points when the market state switches. As a result, two periods have been obtained. There are two GCs in both periods, which are influenced by terms to maturity and ratings. Besides, there are 382 LCs in Period 1 and 166 LCs in Period 2. In the LC portfolios there are two interesting bond collections which are helpful to understand the thoughts of the investors. One is the supper AAA bond collection which is believed to have implicit governmental guarantees by the investors, and the other is the overcapacity industrial bond collection which is influenced by the supply-side reform led by the Chinese government. GCA is expected to be applied to other complex systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cooperative spectrum sensing (CSS) is envisaged as a powerful approach to improve the utilization of scarce radio spectrum resources, but it is threatened by Byzantine attack. Byzantine attack has been becoming a popular research topic in both academia and industry due to the demanding requirements of security. Extensive research mainly aims at mitigating the negative effect of Byzantine attack on CSS, but with some strong assumptions, such as attackers are in minority or trusted node(s) exist for data fusion, while paying little attention to a mobile scenario. This paper focuses on the issue of designing a general and reliable reference for CSS in a mobile network. Instead of the previously simplified attack, we develop a generic Byzantine attack model from sophisticated behaviors to conduct various attack strategies and derive the condition of which Byzantine attack makes the fusion center (FC) blind. Specifically, we propose a robust sequential CSS (SCSS) against dynamic Byzantine attack. Our proposed method solves the unreliability of the FC by means of delivery-based assessment to check consistency of individual sensing report, and innovatively reuses the sensing information from Byzantines via a novel weight allocation mechanism. Furthermore, trust value (TrV) ranking is exploited to proceed with a sequential test which generates a more accurate decision about the presence of phenomenon with fewer samples. Lastly, we carry out simulations on comparison of existing data fusion technologies and SCSS under dynamic Byzantine attack, and results verify the theoretical analysis and effectiveness of our proposed approach. We also conduct numerical analyses to demonstrate explicit impacts of secondary user (SU) density and mobility on the performance of SCSS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Poverty and human capital development are inextricably linked and therefore research on human capital typically incorporates measures of economic well-being. In the context of randomized trials of health interventions, for example, such measures are used to: 1) assess baseline balance; 2) estimate covariate-adjusted analyses; and 3) conduct subgroup analyses. Many factors characterize economic well-being, however, and analysts often generate summary measures such as indices of household socio-economic status or wealth. In this paper, a household wealth index is developed and tested for participants in the cluster-randomized Sanitation, Hygiene, Infant Nutrition Efficacy (SHINE) trial in rural Zimbabwe. Methods: Building on the approach used in the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS), we combined a set of housing characteristics, ownership of assets and agricultural resources into a wealth index using principal component analysis (PCA) on binary variables. The index was assessed for internal and external validity. Its sensitivity was examined considering an expanded set of variables and an alternative statistical approach of polychoric PCA. Correlation between indices was determined using the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and agreement between quintiles using a linear weighted Kappa statistic. Using the 2015 ZDHS data, we constructed a separate index and applied the loadings resulting from that analysis to the SHINE study population, to compare the wealth distribution in the SHINE study with rural Zimbabwe. Results: The derived indices using the different methods were highly correlated (r>0.9), and the wealth quintiles derived from the different indices had substantial to near perfect agreement (linear weighted Kappa>0.7). The indices were strongly associated with a range of assets and other wealth measures, indicating both internal and external validity. Households in SHINE were modestly wealthier than the overall population of households in rural Zimbabwe. Conclusion: The SHINE wealth index developed here is a valid and robust measure of wealth in the sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sadness increases how much decision makers pay to acquire goods, even when decision makers are unaware of it. This effect is coined the “misery-is-not-miserly effect”. The paper that first established this effect is the second most-cited article appearing in Psychological Science in 2004. In light of its impact, the present study sought to assess whether the misery-is-not-miserly effect would replicate (a) in a novel context and (b) even when another way of alleviating a sense of loss (i.e., compensatory consumption) was available. Results revealed that the effect replicated in the novel context and, despite a prediction otherwise, even when individuals had an opportunity to engage in compensatory consumption. Moreover, a meta-analysis of the original effect and that observed in the present study yielded a small-to-medium effect (Cohen’s d = 0.43). As such, the present study lends evidentiary support to the misery-is-not-miserly effect and provides impetus for future research exploring the impact of sadness on consumer decision-making, specifically, and of emotion on decision processes, more generally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a model for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) model with skewed Student’s-t innovation, copula functions and extreme value theory. A Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) model that identifies non-constant volatility over time and allows the GARCH parameters to vary over time following a Markov process, is combined with copula functions and EVT to formulate the Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) copula-EVT VaR model, which is then used to forecast the level of risk on financial asset returns. We further propose a new method for threshold selection in EVT analysis, which we term the hybrid method. Empirical and back-testing results show that the proposed VaR models capture VaR reasonably well in periods of calm and in periods of crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate how crude oil price and volume traded affected the profitability of oil and gas companies in the United Kingdom (UK) since the financial crisis started in 2008. The study benefit from insights of the financial statements, to develop a model that focuses on how changes in oil price impact corporate performance. In order to observe the financial indicators that influence the performance, as well as the effects that changes in oil prices and demand of crude oil have on the profitability of oil and gas companies, we apply comparative regression analysis, including the generalised method of moments estimation technique for panel data set. The sample is consisting of 31 oil and gas companies in the UK, and the period analysed is 2006–2014. Results show that profitable oil and gas companies managed to face the drop in oil price and recover, characterized by significant cash flows and stock turnover, efficient use of assets, and high solvency rates. Although the oil price and volume traded do not significantly affect profitability and other financial ratios, if the oil price continues to decrease, it would permanently alter both the UK economy and oil and gas companies. In order to survive, companies make drastic cuts and defer essential investments, often at the long-term expense of asset performance. This study is important in a world where the energy consumption steadily grew over time. However, the renewable energy is cheaper and more environmentally friendly, and thus, countries where oil and gas industry is one of the most popular sectors face an economic decline. These results could be useful for investors, managers or decision makers, reclaiming strategic decisions in the current uncertain and volatile environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents results of an artificial stock market and tries to make it more consistent with the statistical features of real stock data. Based on the SFI-ASM, a novel model is proposed to make agents more close to the real world. Agents are divided into four kinds in terms of different learning speeds, strategy-sizes, utility functions, and level of intelligence; and a crucial parameter has been found to ensure system stability. So, some parameters are appended to make the model which contains zero-intelligent and less-intelligent agents run steadily. Moreover, considering real stock markets change violently due to the financial crisis; the real stock markets are divided into two segments, before the financial crisis and after it. The optimal modified model before the financial crisis fails to replicate the statistical features of the real market after the financial crisis. Then, the optimal model after the financial crisis is shown. The experiments indicate that the optimal model after the financial crisis is able to replicate several of real market phenomena, including the first-order autocorrelation, kurtosis, standard deviation of yield series and first-order autocorrelation of yield square. We point out that there is a structural change in stock markets after the financial crisis, which can benefit people forecast the financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies on machine learning technology have reported successful performances in some visual and auditory recognition tasks, while little has been reported in the field of olfaction. In this paper we report computational methods to predict the odor impression of a chemical from its physicochemical properties. Our predictive model utilizes nonlinear dimensionality reduction on mass spectra data and performs the clustering of descriptors by natural language processing. Sensory evaluation is widely used to measure human impressions to smell or taste by using verbal descriptors, such as “spicy” and “sweet”. However, as it requires significant amounts of time and human resources, a large-scale sensory evaluation test is difficult to perform. Our model successfully predicts a group of descriptors for a target chemical through a series of computer simulations. Although the training text data used in the language modeling is not specialized for olfaction, the experimental results show that our method is useful for analyzing sensory datasets. This is the first report to combine machine olfaction with natural language processing for odor character prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Childhood obesity rates have been rising rapidly in developing countries. A better understanding of the risk factors and social context is necessary to inform public health interventions and policies. This paper describes the validation of several measurement scales for use in Turkey, which relate to child and parent perceptions of physical activity (PA) and enablers and barriers of physical activity in the home environment. Method: The aim of this study was to assess the validity and reliability of several measurement scales in Turkey using a population sample across three socio-economic strata in the Turkish capital, Ankara. Surveys were conducted in Grade 4 children (mean age = 9.7 years for boys; 9.9 years for girls), and their parents, across 6 randomly selected schools, stratified by SES (n = 641 students, 483 parents). Construct validity of the scales was evaluated through exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Internal consistency of scales and test-retest reliability were assessed by Cronbach’s alpha and intra-class correlation. Results: The scales as a whole were found to have acceptable-to-good model fit statistics (PA Barriers: RMSEA = 0.076, SRMR = 0.0577, AGFI = 0.901; PA Outcome Expectancies: RMSEA = 0.054, SRMR = 0.0545, AGFI = 0.916, and PA Home Environment: RMSEA = 0.038, SRMR = 0.0233, AGFI = 0.976). The PA Barriers subscales showed good internal consistency and poor to fair test-retest reliability (personal α = 0.79, ICC = 0.29, environmental α = 0.73, ICC = 0.59). The PA Outcome Expectancies subscales showed good internal consistency and test-retest reliability (negative α = 0.77, ICC = 0.56; positive α = 0.74, ICC = 0.49). Only the PA Home Environment subscale on support for PA was validated in the final confirmatory model; it showed moderate internal consistency and test-retest reliability (α = 0.61, ICC = 0.48). Discussion: This study is the first to validate measures of perceptions of physical activity and the physical activity home environment in Turkey. Our results support the originally hypothesized two-factor structures for Physical Activity Barriers and Physical Activity Outcome Expectancies. However, we found the one-factor rather than two-factor structure for Physical Activity Home Environment had the best model fit. This study provides general support for the use of these scales in Turkey in terms of validity, but test-retest reliability warrants further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]