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Summary: The evaluation of urban stormwater quality is of relevant importance for urban drainage, and mathematical models may be of great interest in this respect. To date, several detailed mathematical models are available to predict stormwater quantity–quality characteristics in urban drainage systems. However, only a few models take sewer sediments into account, considering their cohesive-like properties that influence the build-up process of the pollutant load. Furthermore, the model data requirements, especially for the quality aspects, are extensive, which limit their applicability and affect model results with large uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis provides a measure or index regarding the significance and the accuracy of the results obtained by mathematical modelling and is therefore of high interest. Nevertheless, only few studies have been carried out in the urban drainage field, and very few deal with water quality issues. One of the main reasons for this lack of research is the computational burden required by detailed models that preserve this analysis and generally require several Monte Carlo simulation runs. A possible to this problem may be the adoption of simplified parsimonious models that generally require shorter computational times. In this context, this paper presents a parsimonious conceptual model for the evaluation of the pollutant load in-sewers. The model contains two modules: a hydrological and hydraulic module that calculates the hydrographs at the inlet and at the outlet of the sewer system, and a solid transfer module that calculates the pollutographs. The cohesive properties of sewer sediments were carefully considered. Further, the effectiveness of the innovative sewer sediment modelling approach has been verified by taking into account the uncertainty assessed according to the GLUE methodology. The model has been tested using experimental quantity–quality data gathered in two Italian catchments, Fossolo (Bologna) and Parco d’Orlèans (Palermo). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Urban stormwater quality modelling plays a central role in evaluation of the quality of the receiving water body. However, the complexity of the physical processes that must be simulated and the limited amount of data available for calibration may lead to high uncertainty in the model results. This study was conducted to assess modelling uncertainty associated with catchment surface pollution evaluation. Eight models were compared based on the results of a case study in which there was limited data available for calibration. Uncertainty analysis was then conducted using three different methods: the Bayesian Monte Carlo method, the GLUE pseudo-Bayesian method and the GLUE method revised by means of a formal distribution of residuals between the model and measured data (GLUE_f). The uncertainty assessment of the models enabled evaluation of the advantages and limitations of the three methodologies adopted. The models were then tested using the quantity–quality data gathered for the Fossolo catchment in Bologna, Italy. The results revealed that all of the models evaluated here provided good calibration results, even if the model reliability (in terms of related uncertainty) varied, which suggests the adoption of a specific modelling approach with respect to the others. Additionally, a comparison of uncertainty analysis approaches showed that, regarding the models evaluated here, the classical Bayesian method is more effective at discriminating models according to their uncertainty, but the GLUE approach performs similarly when it is based on the same founding assumptions as the Bayesian method. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Over the last few years, the use of mathematical models has gained importance in urban drainage system management; indeed, such models enable the combined analysis of different components that constitute a drainage system; the sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and the receiving water body. The effectiveness of an integrated approach has been widely demonstrated in the past and is presented in the EU Water Framework Directive, which also introduces a new point of view regarding the water quality management of the whole system, requiring a global analysis at the river basin scale for pollutant sources. However, integrated urban drainage models introduce several uncertain factors that are due to the high complexity level of the adopted approaches as well as to the lack of data for a robust model calibration. This paper presents the uncertainty assessment of an integrated urban drainage model developed in previous studies by means of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. The analysis has been applied to an experimental catchment in Bologna (Italy) which covers a part of the Bologna sewer network and a reach of the Savena River. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]