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Introduction: Although people with a psychotic disorder are approximately four to six times more often victimized than the general population, victimization is not routinely assessed in mental healthcare. This study investigates prevalence, context and risk factors of victimization in patients with a psychotic disorder in the Northern, relatively rural region of the Netherlands. Moreover, disclosure rates and awareness of psychiatrists are examined. Method: Information on personal crime (threats, assaults and sexual violence), property and other forms of crime, the context of victimization and disclosure was routinely assessed in 353 patients with a psychotic disorder who received care at a mental health facility. In addition, involved psychiatrists reported on last year’s victimization incidents in their patients. Results: One third of the patients reported victimization in the previous year. More than half of the crimes were committed by someone acquainted and took place in the victim’s own home or a place familiar to the victim. Younger age, having a comorbid disorder, drug use and perpetration of a crime were all positively associated with victimization. Approximately half of the reported personal crimes were disclosed to a health care professional but only in 16% of the cases the involved psychiatrist report to know about the incident. Conclusion: This study confirms that people with a history of psychosis have an increased risk of becoming the victim of a crime. Although our results suggest that in fifty percent of cases the patients did share the information with professionals, a substantial proportion of incidents appear to go still unnoticed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To summarise and quantify the effect of tobacco smoking on the risk of developing community acquired pneumonia (CAP) in adults. Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsychINFO and Web of Science, from inception to October 2017, to identify case-control and cohort studies and reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) checklist. The review protocol was registered with the PROSPERO database (CRD42018093943). Study quality was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using a random-effects model. Results: Of 647 studies identified, 27 studies were included (n = 460,592 participants) in the systematic review. Most of the included studies were of moderate quality with a median score of six (IQR 6–7). Meta-analysis showed that current smokers (pooled OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.70–2.76, n = 13 studies; pooled HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.13–2.04, n = 7 studies) and ex-smokers (pooled OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.26–1.75, n = 8 studies; pooled HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.91–1.52, n = 6 studies) were more likely to develop CAP compared to never smokers. Although the association between passive smoking and risk of CAP in adults of all ages was not statistically significant (pooled OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.94–1.36, n = 5 studies), passive smoking in adults aged ≥65 years was associated with a 64% increased risk of CAP (pooled OR 1.64; 95% CI 1.17–2.30, n = 2 studies). Dose-response analyses of data from five studies revealed a significant trend; current smokers who smoked higher amount of tobacco had a higher risk of CAP. Conclusion: Tobacco smoke exposure is significantly associated with the development of CAP in current smokers and ex-smokers. Adults aged > 65 years who are passive smokers are also at higher risk of CAP. For current smokers, a significant dose-response relationship is evident. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earlier work by one of us examined a historical corpus of portraits and found that artists often paint the subject such that one eye is centred horizontally. If due to psychological mechanisms constraining artistic composition, this eye-centring bias should be detectable also in portraits by non-professionals. However, this finding has been questioned both on theoretical and empirical grounds. Here we tested eye-centring in a larger (N ~ = 4000) and more representative set of selfies spontaneously posted on Instagram from six world cities. In contrast with previous selfie results, the distribution of the most-centred eye position peaked almost exactly at the horizontal centre of the image and was statistically different from predictions based on realistic Monte-Carlo predictions. In addition, we observed a small but statistically reliable pseudoneglect effect as well as a preference for centring the left-eye. An eye-centring tendency appears to exist in self-portraits by non-artists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: High-quality training is required to improve the cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) skills. Although it has been reported that the use of a feedback device is effective, the effects of feedback timing and frequency on CPR training have not been investigated. The aim of this study was to clarify the influence of feedback frequency and timing on the acquisition of CPR skills. Methods: Sixty-eight undergraduates were first divided into female (n = 32) and male (n = 36) groups, and randomly assigned to one of four groups for each sex: concurrent-100%, concurrent-50%, terminal-100%, and terminal-50% feedback groups. The randomization was performed using a lottery method. This study consisted of a pre-test, practice sessions, a post-test, and a follow-up test. In the practice sessions, the participants performed six 2-minute CPR sessions in accordance with the condition assigned using mannequins and feedback devices. The post-test was conducted 24 hours after the completion of the practice sessions and the follow-up test was conducted 3 months after the completion of the practice sessions. The primary outcome of the study was the overall score at the follow-up test. Results: The results of the overall score at the follow-up test for each group were 88.2 ± 9.6% for concurrent-100%, 92.2 ± 6.4% for concurrent-50%, 82.6 ± 16.4% for terminal-100%, and 85.2 ± 16.9% for terminal-50%. We did not find any statistically significant difference for the overall score at the follow-up test among the four groups (p = 0.173). The ANOVA for the test sessions revealed that there were no significant main effects of feedback timing (p = 0.135) or frequency (p = 0.765), and no significant interaction between timing and frequency (p = 0.997). Conclusion: The present study reveals that the use of feedback devices is an important factor for higher quality CPR training, regardless of the timing and frequency with which they are used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Children aged 2 to 6 years are in a crucial period of growth development, during which it is important for them to attain specific cognition related to concentration and attention so that they can perform well in school later in life. Various factors influence children’s cognition during this crucial period. However, to date, only a limited number of studies have examined the cognitive performance of underprivileged children living in poverty, particularly indigenous children (also known as Orang Asli children in Malaysia). Therefore, this cross-sectional study aimed to determine the associations between sociodemographic factors, nutritional factors (body composition and hemoglobin), and environmental factors (home environment and parasitic infections) with cognitive performance among Orang Asli children in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. The participants were 269 children (51% boys, 49% girls) aged 2 to 6 years (M = 4.0, SD = 1.2 years) and their mothers, from 14 Orang Asli villages. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with the mothers, and the children’s cognitive performance, operationalized as working memory index (WMI), processing speed index (PSI), and cognitive proficiency index (CPI), was assessed using the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence, Fourth Edition (WPPSI-IV). The children’s weight and height were measured, and their blood and stool samples were collected to assess hemoglobin level and parasitic infections, respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the father’s years of education (β = 0.262–0.342, p < 0.05), availability of learning materials at home (β = 0.263–0.425, p < 0.05), and responsiveness of the parent to the child (β = 0.192–0.331, p < 0.05) were consistently associated with all three cognitive indices (WMI, PSI, and CPI). A holistic approach involving parents, communities, and government agencies should be established to improve the cognitive performance of these underprivileged children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Permanent childhood hearing loss (PCHL) can affect speech, language, and wider outcomes. Adverse effects are mitigated through universal newborn hearing screening (UNHS) and early intervention. Objective: We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate prevalence of UNHS-detected PCHL (bilateral loss ≥26 dB HL) and its variation by admission to neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). A secondary objective was to report UNHS programme performance (PROSPERO: CRD42016051267). Data sources: Multiple electronic databases were interrogated in January 2017, with further reports identified from article citations and unpublished literature (November 2017). Study selection: UNHS reports from very highly-developed (VHD) countries with relevant prevalence and performance data; no language or date restrictions. Data extraction: Three reviewers independently extracted data and assessed quality. Results: We identified 41 eligible reports from 32 study populations (1799863 screened infants) in 6195 non-duplicate references. Pooled UNHS-detected PCHL prevalence was 1.1 per 1000 screened children (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.9, 1.3; I2 = 89.2%). This was 6.9 times (95% CI: 3.8, 12.5) higher among those admitted to NICU. Smaller studies were significantly associated with higher prevalences (Egger’s test: p = 0.02). Sensitivity and specificity ranged from 89–100% and 92–100% respectively, positive predictive values from 2–84%, with all negative predictive values 100%. Limitations: Results are generalisable to VHD countries only. Estimates and inferences were limited by available data. Conclusions: In VHD countries, 1 per 1000 screened newborns require referral to clinical services for PCHL. Prevalence is higher in those admitted to NICU. Improved reporting would support further examination of screen performance and child demographics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lack of homogeneity in the product (LHP) is a problem when customers require homogeneous units of a single product. In such cases, the optimal allocation of inventory to orders becomes much more complex. Furthermore, in an MTS environment, an optimal initial allocation may become less than ideal over time, due to different circumstances. This problem occurs in the ceramics sector, where the final product varies in tone and calibre. This paper proposes a methodology for the reallocation of inventory to orders in LHP situation (MERIO-LHP) and a model-based decision-support system (DSS) to support the methodology, which enables an optimal reallocation of inventory to order lines to be carried out in real businesses environments in which LHP is inherent. The proposed methodology and model-based DSS were validated by applying it to a real case at a ceramics company. The analysis of the results indicates that considerable improvements can be obtained with regard to the quantity of orders fulfilled and sales turnover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bacterial Panicle Blight (BPB), caused by Burkholderia glumae, is a bacterial disease in rice (Oryza sativa) that reduces rice yield and quality for producers and consequently creates higher market prices for consumers. BPB is caused by the simultaneous occurrence of high daily minimum temperatures (~22°C) and relative humidity (~77%), which may increase under the current scenario of global warming. This study hypothesized that the economic damage from warming may cause an increase in economic losses, though at a decreasing rate per degree. Thus, this study estimates the yield losses associated with BPB occurrences at the county level in the Mid-South United States (US) for annual rice production in 2003–2013 and under +1–3°C warming scenarios using daily weather information with appropriate thresholds. From the estimated losses, the total production potential of a BPB-resistant rice was quantified using a spatial equilibrium trade model to further estimate market welfare changes with the counterfactual scenario that all US county-level rice production were BPB resistant. Results from the study indicate that the alleviation of BPB would represent a $69 million USD increase in consumer surplus in the US and a concomitant increase in rice production that would feed an additional 1.46 million people annually assuming a global average consumption of 54 Kg per person. Under the 1°C warming scenario, BPB occurrences and production losses would cause price increases for rice and subsequently result in a $112 million USD annual decrease in consumer surplus in the US and a loss of production equivalent to feeding 2.17 million people. Under a 3°C warming scenario, production losses due to BPB cause an annual reduction of $204 million USD in consumer surplus in the US, and a loss in production sufficient to feed 3.98 million people a year. As global warming intensifies, BPB could become a more common and formidable rice disease to combat, and breeding for BPB resistance would be the primary line-of-defense as currently no effective chemical options are available. The results of this study inform agriculturalists, policymakers, and economists about the value of BPB-resistance in the international rice market and also help support efforts to focus future breeding toward climate change impact resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do people who care about the environment adopt behaviours that are not consistent with their beliefs? Previous studies approach this as a case of cognitive dissonance, researchers looking into the strategies through which people reduce gaps between their attitudes and their behaviours. Here we start from the premise that there is no dissonance, and that people have consistent reasons of why they are doing what they are doing. The research task is then to shed light on these reasons. Using Q-methodology, a mixed quantitative-qualitative approach, we interviewed 42 environmentally-minded researchers asking them why they eat meat. Our interviewees were aware of and cared about the environmental and ethical impacts of meat eating, but reasoned that they eat meat because either technological, or political changes are more important than what they personally do, because of doubts about the impact of personal action in a complex world, or simply because they lack the determination to stop eating meat. Our analysis suggests that policies and messages that try to educate or guilt meat-eaters are unlikely to work with those well aware of the impacts of their actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptive behaviour requires cognitive control for shielding current goals from distractors (stability) but at the same time for switching between alternative goals (flexibility). In this behavioural study, we examine the stability-flexibility balance in left- and right-handers during two types of decision-making, instructed (sensory cued) and voluntary (own choice), by means of distractor inhibition and hand/task switching. The data revealed that both groups showed opposite tendencies for instructed decision-making. Moreover, right-handers resisted distracting information more efficiently whereas left-handers showed superior switching abilities. When participants were involved in voluntary decision-making, no effects of handedness were noted, which suggests that free-choice processing alters the balance between stability and flexibility. These data illustrate that handedness is an index of individual variation during instructed decision-making, biasing the proficiency of cognitive control towards stability and flexibility of information processing. These biases can however be overruled by top-down strategies that dominate during voluntary decision-making. Overall, the research underlines the antagonistic functions of stability and flexibility in decision-making, and offers an approach for examining cognitive control and the role of internal and external factors in balancing the stability-flexibility trade-off. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It was recently proposed that healthy orthorexia (HeOr) and orthorexia nervosa (OrNe) should be differentiated. The aim of the present study was to analyze whether the two dimensions of orthorexia can be considered new eating styles or basically equivalent to restrained eating behavior. Two samples of university students (sample 1, n = 460; sample 2, n = 509) completed the Teruel Orthorexia Scale (TOS), the Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire (DEBQ), and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS). Factor analysis with the TOS and DEBQ items together revealed an adequate fit for the preexisting five-factor solution (TOS: OrNe and HeOr; DEBQ: Restrained Eating, Emotional Eating, and External Eating). This result points out that these factors are conceptually distinguishable. Moreover, we tested whether the different eating styles presented different patterns of correlations with gender, body mass index (BMI), and age, and whether OrNe and HeOr predicted Positive and Negative Affect after controlling for Restrained, Emotional, and External Eating. Whereas Restrained and Emotional Eating were higher for women and increased with BMI in both samples, HeOr and OrNe presented much lower associations with these variables. OrNe was positively related to Negative Affect and negatively to Positive Affect, whereas HeOr was positively related to Positive Affect. Again, this result supports the assumption that OrNe is a new variant of disordered eating, whereas HeOr could possibly be seen as a protective behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is the gold standard in assessing harmful alcohol intake, which is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality. Objective: The goal of this study is to evaluate the psychometric properties and factor structure of an Ecuadorian adaptation of a Spanish translation of the AUDIT in a large sample of college students in Ecuador. Methods: A total of 7905 students, including 46.26% males, and 53.75% females, from 11 universities in Ecuador, were surveyed. The questionnaire was tested for two- and three-factor structures, reliability, and correlations with other health related measures. Results: The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test for sampling adequacy was satisfactory (.0885), and Bartlett´s test for sphericity was significant (p < .001). Although both models showed a good fit to the data, the two-factor model was preferred based on the high correlations between the factors 2 and 3 within the three-factor model (.86 for the total sample, .77 for females, and .91 for males). The reliability for the two-factor model was good, as indicated by Cronbach´s α = .806 (factor I) and .716 (factor II) for the total sample, .808 (factor I) and .667 (factor II) for females, and .787 (factor I) and .728 (factor II) for males. Additionally, the AUDIT scores positively correlated with several health-related measures: stress, psychological inflexibility, loneliness and depression/anxiety symptomatology. Conclusion: The Ecuadorian adaptation of the Spanish version of the AUDIT has good reliability, and internal consistency and correlates with other health related measures, proving to be a reliable tool that can be used by researchers and clinicians to screen hazardous alcohol intake in college students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study investigated the relationship between the ground reaction force-time profile of a countermovement jump (CMJ) and fatigue, specifically focusing on predicting the onset of neuromuscular versus metabolic fatigue using the CMJ. Method: Ten recreational athletes performed 5 CMJs at time points prior to, immediately following, and at 0.5, 1, 3, 6, 24 and 48 h after training, which comprised repeated sprint sessions of low, moderate, or high workloads. Features of the concentric portion of the CMJ force-time signature at the measurement time points were analysed using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and functional PCA (fPCA) to better understand fatigue onset given training workload. In addition, Linear Mixed Effects (LME) models were developed to predict the onset of fatigue. Results: The first two Principal Components (PCs) using PCA explained 68% of the variation in CMJ features, capturing variation between athletes through weighted combinations of force, concentric time and power. The next two PCs explained 9.9% of the variation and revealed fatigue effects between 6 to 48 h after training for PC3, and contrasting neuromuscular and metabolic fatigue effects in PC4. fPCA supported these findings and further revealed contrasts between metabolic and neuromuscular fatigue effects in the first and second half of the force-time curve in PC3, and a double peak effect in PC4. Subsequently, CMJ measurements up to 0.5 h after training were used to predict relative peak CMJ force, with mean squared errors of 0.013 and 0.015 at 6 and 48 h corresponding to metabolic and neuromuscular fatigue. Conclusion: The CMJ was found to provide a strong predictor of neuromuscular and metabolic fatigue, after accounting for force, concentric time and power. This method can be used to assist coaches to individualise future training based on CMJ response to the immediate session. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the socio-economic level of an urban region is of great significance for governments and city managers when allocating resources and making decisions. However, the current approaches for estimating regional socio-economic levels heavily rely on census data, which demands significant effort in terms of time and money. With the ubiquitous usage of smart phones and the prevalence of mobile applications, massive amounts of data are generated by mobile networks that record people’s behaviors. In this paper, we propose a low-cost approach of using humans’ online and offline indicators to predict the socio-economic levels of urban regions. The results show that the socio-economic prediction model that is trained using online and offline features extracted from these data achieves a high accuracy over 85%. Notably, online features are showed to be tightly linked with socio-economic development. In environments where censuses are rarely held, our method provides an option for timely and accurate prediction of the economic status of urban regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: English editing services are effective for improving manuscript quality as well as providing learning opportunities for non-native English-speaking authors. Herein, we describe the effects of a combined system of in-house and external editing services for handling large volumes of editing requests and providing personalized editing service in academic hospitals. Methods: We established the Scientific Publications Team (SPT), an in-house editing team in Asan Medical Center in Seoul, Korea. The SPT is composed of two professional editors who manage editing requests sent to external companies while also providing one-on-one in-house editing services. We gathered author satisfaction data from 936 surveys between July 2017 and December 2018 and analyzed the number of editing requests and research publications by segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series data. Results: The SPT processed 3931 editing requests in 2017–2018, which was a marked increase compared with prior to its establishment (P = 0.0097). The authors were generally satisfied with the quality of editing services from both in-house and external editors. Upon conducting regular quality control, overall author satisfaction with one external company gradually increased over the course of one year (P for trend = 0.086). Author satisfaction survey results revealed that overall satisfaction of editing service was most strongly correlated with how well the edits conformed to the authors’ intentions (R = 0.796), and was only weakly correlated with quick turnaround time (R = 0.355). We also observed a significant increase in the trend of the number of research publications (P = 0.0007) at one year after the establishment of the SPT. Conclusion: Providing a combination of in-house and external editing services resulted in high author satisfaction and subsequent hospital-wide increases in manuscript writing and publication. Our model system may be adapted in academic hospitals to better address the editing needs of non-native English-speaking researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore the (in)efficiency of the continuum Bitcoin-USD market in the period ranging from mid 2010 to early 2019. To deal with, we dynamically analyse the evolution of the self-similarity exponent of Bitcoin-USD daily returns via accurate FD4 approach by a 512 day sliding window with overlapping data. Further, we define the memory indicator by the difference between the self-similarity exponent of Bitcoin-USD series and the self-similarity index of its shuffled series. We also carry out additional analyses via FD4 approach by sliding windows of sizes equal to 64, 128, 256, and 1024 days, and also via FD algorithm for values of q equal to 1 and 2 (and sliding windows equal to 512 days). Moreover, we explored the evolution of the self-similarity exponent of actual S&P500 series via FD4 algorithm by sliding windows of sizes equal to 256 and 512 days. In all the cases, the obtained results were found to be similar to our first analysis. We conclude that the self-similarity exponent of the BTC-USD (resp., S&P500) series stands above 0.5. However, this is not due to the presence of significant memory in the series but to its underlying distribution. In fact, it holds that the self-similarity exponent of BTC-USD (resp., S&P500) series is similar or lower than the self-similarity index of a random series with the same distribution. As such, several periods with significant antipersistent memory in BTC-USD (resp., S&P500) series are distinguished. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Unplanned readmission of a hospitalized patient is an indicator of patients’ exposure to risk and an avoidable waste of medical resources. In addition to hospital readmission, intensive care unit (ICU) readmission brings further financial risk, along with morbidity and mortality risks. Identification of high-risk patients who are likely to be readmitted can provide significant benefits for both patients and medical providers. The emergence of machine learning solutions to detect hidden patterns in complex, multi-dimensional datasets provides unparalleled opportunities for developing an efficient discharge decision-making support system for physicians and ICU specialists. Methods and findings: We used supervised machine learning approaches for ICU readmission prediction. We used machine learning methods on comprehensive, longitudinal clinical data from the MIMIC-III to predict the ICU readmission of patients within 30 days of their discharge. We incorporate multiple types of features including chart events, demographic, and ICD-9 embeddings. We have utilized recent machine learning techniques such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), by this we have been able to incorporate the multivariate features of EHRs and capture sudden fluctuations in chart event features (e.g. glucose and heart rate). We show that our LSTM-based solution can better capture high volatility and unstable status in ICU patients, an important factor in ICU readmission. Our machine learning models identify ICU readmissions at a higher sensitivity rate of 0.742 (95% CI, 0.718–0.766) and an improved Area Under the Curve of 0.791 (95% CI, 0.782–0.800) compared with traditional methods. We perform in-depth deep learning performance analysis, as well as the analysis of each feature contribution to the predictive model. Conclusion: Our manuscript highlights the ability of machine learning models to improve our ICU decision-making accuracy and is a real-world example of precision medicine in hospitals. These data-driven solutions hold the potential for substantial clinical impact by augmenting clinical decision-making for physicians and ICU specialists. We anticipate that machine learning models will improve patient counseling, hospital administration, allocation of healthcare resources and ultimately individualized clinical care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Stroke is the second most common cause of disability in the world. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the participation and autonomy of persons with stroke, five years after a stroke, and to explore potential associations between factors and perceived restrictions in participation and autonomy. Methods: This five-year follow-up survey study included individuals diagnosed with a first-time stroke during 2009–2010, in Gothenburg. The survey included the Impact of Participation and Autonomy-questionnaire (IPA-E), which comprised five domains: Autonomy Indoor, Family Role, Autonomy Outdoor, Work & Education, and Social Life & Relationships. Logistic regression analyses were used to analyze factors associated with participation restrictions. Results: At 5 years after a stroke, 457 patients were alive; of these, 281 responded to the follow-up survey. Participation restrictions were most pronounced in the IPA-E domains of Autonomy Outdoors, Work/Education, and Social Life and Relationships. In contrast, restrictions were less pronounced in the IPA-E domains of Autonomy Indoors and Family Role. Severe stroke, older age, and female sex predicted participation restrictions at five years after a stroke. Participation restrictions were partly explained by feelings of depression at five years after stroke. Problems associated with participation restrictions were most frequently observed in the areas of mobility, leisure, and help/support from other people. Conclusion: This study showed that participation and autonomy were restricted among persons with stroke at five years after the stroke. The domains perceived as most restricted were those that required high levels of physical, social, and cognitive abilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimal sensory decision-making requires the combination of uncertain sensory signals with prior expectations. The effect of prior probability is often described as a shift in the decision criterion. Can observers track sudden changes in probability? To answer this question, we used a change-point detection paradigm that is frequently used to examine behavior in changing environments. In a pair of orientation-categorization tasks, we investigated the effects of changing probabilities on decision-making. In both tasks, category probability was updated using a sample-and-hold procedure: probability was held constant for a period of time before jumping to another probability state that was randomly selected from a predetermined set of probability states. We developed an ideal Bayesian change-point detection model in which the observer marginalizes over both the current run length (i.e., time since last change) and the current category probability. We compared this model to various alternative models that correspond to different strategies—from approximately Bayesian to simple heuristics—that the observers may have adopted to update their beliefs about probabilities. While a number of models provided decent fits to the data, model comparison favored a model in which probability is estimated following an exponential averaging model with a bias towards equal priors, consistent with a conservative bias and a flexible variant of the Bayesian change-point detection model with incorrect beliefs. We interpret the former as a simpler, more biologically plausible explanation suggesting that the mechanism underlying change of decision criterion is a combination of on-line estimation of prior probability and a stable, long-term equal-probability prior, thus operating at two very different timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Latino immigrants experience acculturative stress and increased depression risk. Mindfulness meditation improves depressive symptoms, yet the vast majority of research has focused on English speaking populations. Methods: In this randomized clinical trial with 2 parallel treatment groups, adults with moderate levels of perceived stress (n = 76) were recruited from the Los Angeles community from October 2015 to March 2016, stratified into Spanish- (n = 36) and English speaking (n = 40) language groups, and randomized for 6 weeks of treatment with standardized mindful awareness practices (MAPs) or health education (HE). Main outcome measure was depressive symptoms, measured by the Beck Depression Inventory. Results: Using an intent-to-treat analysis, the primary outcome, depressive symptoms as indexed by the Beck Depression Inventory, showed greater improvement in MAPs vs. HE, with a between-group post-intervention mean difference of -2.2 (95% CI -4.4 – -0.07) and effect size of 0.28; similar effect sizes were found in the the Spanish- (0.29) and English speaking (0.30) groups. MAPs showed significant improvement relative to HE on secondary outcome of mindfulness with between group difference of 10.7 (95% CI4.5–16.9), but not perceived stress. Conclusion: The comparable efficacy of Spanish and English formats of mindfulness meditation in improving depressive symptoms suggests that this community based intervention may mitigate depression risk in Latino adults who are experiencing social adversity. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People often consider themselves as more moral than average others (i.e., moral superiority) and present themselves as more moral than they actually are (i.e., moral hypocrisy). We examined whether feelings of moral superiority—as a manifestation of self-enhancement motives—motivates people’s hypocritical behavior, that is, their discrepant moral performances in public versus private settings. In three studies (total N = 1,151), participants distributed two tasks (one favorable and one unfavorable) between themselves and an anonymous partner, with the option of using an ostensibly fair randomizer (e.g., a self-prepared coin). We found that when experiencing feelings of moral superiority (vs. non-superiority), people, especially those who highly identified with moral values (Studies 1 and 2), were less likely to directly give themselves the favorable task, but they were not less likely to cheat in private after using the randomizer (Studies 1 to 3). Both self-enhancement motives and moral identity have implications for hypocritical behavior, by motivating public moral appearances but not private moral integrity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction of emotions with creative cognition is one of the most intriguing topics in the creativity research. In this study, we investigated the extent to which various emotional states influence the evaluation of ideas, which is a crucial component of the creative thinking process. To this end, we used emotional (both positive and negative) and neutral pictures to induce emotional states and then asked participants to evaluate the creativity of exogenous ideas (i.e., those generated by other people) as part of an alternative use evaluation task. As the results of previous studies suggest the existence of a negative bias when judging highly creative ideas, we presented the participants with non-creative, moderately creative, and highly creative uses for everyday objects. Overall, the participants gave higher creativity ratings when under positive emotional engagement than when in negative or neutral conditions. Moreover, neutral and emotional context differently moderated the creativity evaluation of the three object use categories. Specifically, participants gave higher ratings for non-creative uses, and (to a lesser extent) for highly creative uses when in a positive emotional state, than they did when in the neutral condition. On the other hand, when in a negative emotional state, the participants gave lower ratings for moderately creative uses than they did in either the positive or neutral conditions. These data provide initial evidence that emotional states can influence the creativity evaluation of exogenous alternative ideas that are generated through divergent thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In this study, it is aimed to determine obsessive compulsive-related disorders (OCRDs) comorbidity among the patients with obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) and compare patients with OCD with or without comorbid OCRDs in terms of the severity of their OCD symptoms, symptom dimensions, and comorbidity with other axis I disorders. Methods: The study included 90 patients diagnosed as having OCD according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision (DSM-IV-TR). The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) diagnostic criteria for OCRDs were used to determine the presence of OCRDs. In order to determine the symptom dimensions and severity of these individuals’ OCD symptoms, we administered the Dimensional Obsessive Compulsive Scale (DOCS) and The Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS). Results: In our study, 20% of the patients with OCD simultaneously met the criteria for at least one OCRD, we also found that a significantly greater proportion of this group were men. None of the mentioned disorders was associated with any symptom dimensions we evaluated using DOCS. In addition, no differences were found in the severity of OCD symptoms and comorbid axis I disorders between the group with comorbid OCRDs and the group without comorbid OCRDs. Discussion: There was no significant relationship between the symptom dimensions of OCD and OCRDs. It is found that OCRD comorbidity does not increase the severity of OCD symptoms and the prevalence of an axis I diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Living creatures must accurately infer the nature of their environments. They do this despite being confronted by stochastic and context sensitive contingencies—and so must constantly update their beliefs regarding their uncertainty about what might come next. In this work, we examine how we deal with uncertainty that evolves over time. This prospective uncertainty (or imprecision) is referred to as volatility and has previously been linked to noradrenergic signals that originate in the locus coeruleus. Using pupillary dilatation as a measure of central noradrenergic signalling, we tested the hypothesis that changes in pupil diameter reflect inferences humans make about environmental volatility. To do so, we collected pupillometry data from participants presented with a stream of numbers. We generated these numbers from a process with varying degrees of volatility. By measuring pupillary dilatation in response to these stimuli—and simulating the inferences made by an ideal Bayesian observer of the same stimuli—we demonstrate that humans update their beliefs about environmental contingencies in a Bayes optimal way. We show this by comparing general linear (convolution) models that formalised competing hypotheses about the causes of pupillary changes. We found greater evidence for models that included Bayes optimal estimates of volatility than those without. We additionally explore the interaction between different causes of pupil dilation and suggest a quantitative approach to characterising a person’s prior beliefs about volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Child Problematic Traits Inventory (CPTI) is a newly developed informant-rated instrument to measure psychopathic traits during early childhood. The aim of this study was to examine the longitudinal measurement invariance of the CPTI in a group of Chinese schoolchildren. Mothers of 585 children aged 8 to 12 years (50% girls) completed the CPTI twice with one-year interval. Confirmatory factor analyses showed that the CPTI had strict invariance (i.e., equality of factor patterns, loadings, intercepts, and item uniqueness) across time. Furthermore, the internal consistencies for the CPTI subscales were good at both time points and the stability coefficients over time were moderate. Findings suggest that, in children aged 8 to 12 years old, changes in CPTI scores across time can be attributed to actual changes in the child’s psychopathic personality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated what factors may foster or hinder physicians’ cancer screening risk literacy–specifically the ability to understand evidence regarding screening effectiveness and make evidence-based recommendations to patients. In an experiment, physicians in training (interns and residents) read statistical information about outcomes from screening for cancer, and had to decide whether to recommend it to a patient. We manipulated the effectiveness of the screening (effective vs. ineffective at reducing mortality) and the demand of the patient to get screened (demand vs. no demand). We assessed participants’ comprehension of the presented evidence and recommendation to the patient, as well as a-priori screening beliefs (e.g., that screening is always a good choice), numeracy, science literacy, knowledge of screening statistics, statistical education, and demographics. Stronger positive a-priori screening beliefs, lower knowledge of screening statistics, and lower numeracy were related to worse comprehension of the evidence. Physicians recommended against the ineffective screening but only if they showed good comprehension of the evidence. Physicians’ recommendations were further based on the perceived benefits from screening but not on perceived harms, nor the patient’s demands. The current study demonstrates that comprehension of cancer screening statistics and the ability to infer the potential benefits for patients are essential for evidence-based recommendations. However, strong beliefs in favor of screening fostered by promotion campaigns may influence how physicians evaluate evidence about specific screenings. Fostering physician numeracy skills could help counteract such biases and provide evidence-based recommendations to patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In sports related to low body weight, such as classical ballet, the assessment of body composition is important for monitoring performance and health status. This study aimed to cross-validate anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance (BIA) predictive equations for estimating body composition of non-professional classical ballet dancers, using dual-energy-X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a reference method. Materials and methods: Thirty-seven female non-professional classical dancers (median age of 19 years), at intermediate/advanced level, were evaluated in a cross-sectional study. Body composition was evaluated by DXA, anthropometry and tetrapolar BIA. Twenty different predictive equations of anthropometry (n = 8) and BIA (n = 12) were used to estimate Body Fat (BF) and Fat-Free Mass (FFM), testing their validity against DXA using the Bland-Altman statistics. Results: For BF estimated by anthropometry equations, just one equation showed agreement with DXA (r = 0.852, p < 0.0005; p = 0.600 for one sample T-test). According to the Bland-Altman analysis, this equation also showed validity, with the absence of proportional bias. Regarding the predictive BIA equations tested, none were valid for our study group. Conclusion: Only one of the anthropometric equations, the one proposed by Durnin and Womerley (1974), but none of the BIA equations analyzed, was valid for the evaluation of body composition of the studied classical dancers. Our results emphasize the importance of previous cross-validation of existing equations or the development of specific equations for body composition assessment in specific populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jury deliberations provide a quintessential example of collective decision-making, but few studies have probed the available data to explore how juries reach verdicts. We examine how features of jury dynamics can be better understood from the joint distribution of final votes and deliberation time. To do this, we fit several different decision-making models to jury datasets from different places and times. In our best-fit model, jurors influence each other and have an increasing tendency to stick to their opinion of the defendant’s guilt or innocence. We also show that this model can explain spikes in mean deliberation times when juries are hung, sub-linear scaling between mean deliberation times and trial duration, and unexpected final vote and deliberation time distributions. Our findings suggest that both stubbornness and herding play an important role in collective decision-making, providing a nuanced insight into how juries reach verdicts, and more generally, how group decisions emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In Taiwan, light motorcycles (LMCs) with cylinder capacities between 50 and 250 cc are widely used for daily commute. These vehicles are operated in a mixed traffic environment and prohibited on highways. In light of increasing motorcycle casualties, we conducted a multicentre study to analyse rider factors affecting injury severity. Methods: Riders hospitalised upon LMC crashes were contacted. Information on demographics, comorbidities, and riding behaviours was collected through questionnaires and linked to hospital data. The injury severity score (ISS) and length of hospitalisation (LOH) were used as injury severity measures. Results: In total, 725 patients (mean age: 37.7 years; 64% men) completed their questionnaires. Multivariate analysis results showed that age ≥ 65 years, half-face helmets, protective clothing, collisions with a bus/truck or car, and fatigue riding were risk factors for having an ISS of ≥9. Age ≥ 65 years; motorcycle crashes ≥2 times in the previous year; anaemia; rural crashes; half-face helmets; protective boots; collisions with a bus/truck, car, or a stationary object; alcohol/stimulating refreshment consumption; and fatigue riding were risk factors for increased LOH. A protective factor was individuals working in commerce. Collisions with opening car doors caused low risks of having an ISS of ≥9 and a short LOH. Conclusion: Certain factors were significantly associated with riders’ injury severity and related medical resource consumption. Because of differences in the power output, use, and riding environment, risk factors for severe injuries in LMC crashes are dissimilar from those for heavy motorcycles (cylinder capacities > 250 cc) in developed countries and deserve more attention for injury prevention. Further in-depth evaluation of significant factors based on this study’s results can yield valuable information to reduce severe injuries after LMC crashes in countries and areas with a high dependency on motorcycles, even considering the popularity of electric motorcycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How can we extract hidden relations from a tensor and a matrix data simultaneously in a fast, accurate, and scalable way? Coupled matrix-tensor factorization (CMTF) is an important tool for this purpose. Designing an accurate and efficient CMTF method has become more crucial as the size and dimension of real-world data are growing explosively. However, existing methods for CMTF suffer from lack of accuracy, slow running time, and limited scalability. In this paper, we propose S3CMTF, a fast, accurate, and scalable CMTF method. In contrast to previous methods which do not handle large sparse tensors and are not parallelizable, S3CMTF provides parallel sparse CMTF by carefully deriving gradient update rules. S3CMTF asynchronously updates partial gradients without expensive locking. We show that our method is guaranteed to converge to a quality solution theoretically and empirically. S3CMTF further boosts the performance by carefully storing intermediate computation and reusing them. We theoretically and empirically show that S3CMTF is the fastest, outperforming existing methods. Experimental results show that S3CMTF is up to 930× faster than existing methods while providing the best accuracy. S3CMTF shows linear scalability on the number of data entries and the number of cores. In addition, we apply S3CMTF to Yelp rating tensor data coupled with 3 additional matrices to discover interesting patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patterns of spatial behavior dictate how we use our infrastructure, encounter other people, or are exposed to services and opportunities. Understanding these patterns through the analysis of data commonly available through commodity smartphones has become an important arena for innovation in both academia and industry. The resulting datasets can quickly become massive, indicating the need for concise understanding of the scope of the data collected. Some data is obviously correlated (for example GPS location and which WiFi routers are seen). Codifying the extent of these correlations could identify potential new models, provide guidance on the amount of data to collect, and even provide actionable features. However, identifying correlations, or even the extent of correlation, is difficult because the form of the correlation must be specified. Fractal-based intrinsic dimensionality directly calculates the minimum number of dimensions required to represent a dataset. We provide an intrinsic dimensionality analysis of four smartphone datasets over seven input dimensions, and empirically demonstrate an intrinsic dimension of approximately two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Level-2 visuo-spatial perspective-taking is an embodied process during which the perspective-taker mentally simulates a movement of his or her body into the location of the target. Evidence for the embodiment of this process so far exclusively stems from congruency effects in visuo-spatial perspective-taking experiments. Here, additional triangulation for the embodiment of this process is provided from an interindividual differences perspective. In a cross-sectional observational study, participants completed a behavioral level-2 visuo-spatial perspective-taking task and the heartbeat tracking task, which measures interoceptive accuracy and sensibility. Interoceptive accuracy is the objective ability to accurately perceive signals from within the body. In the present study, interoceptive accuracy was quantified by comparing the number of actual heartbeats observed via electrocardiographic recording to subjectively perceived heartbeats during that time. This measure was related to faster perspective-taking and better overall perspective-taking performance. Interoceptive sensibility refers to subjective beliefs about interoceptive abilities. Here, confidence in the estimated number of heartbeats served as a measure if interoceptive sensibility. Finally, the correspondence between interoceptive accuracy and sensibility is referred to as interoceptive awareness. Interoceptive sensibility and awareness were unrelated to perspective-taking. The study is a demonstration of the role interindividual differences in different facets of interoception play for embodied cognition. Implications for future research on links between embodied cognition and interoception are outlined and critically discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecologists have been compiling ecological networks for over a century, detailing the interactions between species in a variety of ecosystems. To this end, they have built networks for mutualistic (e.g., pollination, seed dispersal) as well as antagonistic (e.g., herbivory, parasitism) interactions. The type of interaction being represented is believed to be reflected in the structure of the network, which would differ substantially between mutualistic and antagonistic networks. Here, we put this notion to the test by attempting to determine the type of interaction represented in a network based solely on its structure. We find that, although it is easy to separate different kinds of nonecological networks, ecological networks display much structural variation, making it difficult to distinguish between mutualistic and antagonistic interactions. We therefore frame the problem as a challenge for the community of scientists interested in computational biology and machine learning. We discuss the features a good solution to this problem should possess and the obstacles that need to be overcome to achieve this goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In virtual reality, visual speed is usually underestimated relative to locomotor speed. Here we investigated how physical activity and fitness affect perceived visual speed when running in a treadmill-mediated virtual environment. Thirty healthy participants (ten sedentary individuals, ten team sport players and ten expert runners) ran on a treadmill at two different speeds (8, 12km/h) in front of a moving virtual scene. Participants were asked to match the speed of the visual scene to their running speed (i.e. treadmill speed), indicating for each trial whether the scene was moving slower or faster than the treadmill. The speed of the visual scene was adjusted according to the participant’s response using a staircase until visual and running speeds were perceived as equivalent. More sedentary participants underestimated visual speed relative to their actual running speed. Specifically, visual speed had to exceed running speed to be perceived as equivalent. The underestimation of visual speed was speed-dependent, and it was significantly larger for sedentary participants than for team sports players and expert runners. The volume of physical activity per week was found to be the best predictor of visual speed perception for both running speeds, while the perceived effort constituted a good predictor only at 8km/h. Physical fitness, on the other hand turned out to be a poor predictor of visual speed perception. Therefore, in order to enhance users’ engagement and their adherence to physical activity programs, the development of “personalized” treadmill-mediated virtual environments should take into account users’ personal characteristics to provide the most natural and engaging feedback possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans have a demonstrated tendency to copy or imitate the behavior and attitude of others and actively influence each other’s opinions. In plenty of empirical contexts, publicly revealed opinions are not necessarily in line with internal opinions, causing complex social influence dynamics. We study to what extent hypocrisy is sustained during opinion formation and how hidden opinions change the convergence to consensus in a group. We build and analyze a modified version of the voter model with hypocrisy in a complete graph with a neutral competition between two alternatives. We compare the process from various initial conditions, varying the proportions between the two opinions in the external (revealed) and internal (hidden) layer. According to our results, hypocrisy always prolongs the time needed for reaching a consensus. In a complete graph, this time span increases linearly with group size. We find that the group-level opinion emerges in two steps: (1) a fast and directional process, during which the number of the two kinds of hypocrites equalizes; and (2) a slower, random drift of opinions. During stage (2), the ratio of opinions in the external layer is approximately equal to the ratio in the internal layer; that is, the hidden opinions do not differ significantly from the revealed ones at the group level. We furthermore find that the initial abundances of opinions, but not the initial prevalence of hypocrisy, predicts the mean consensus time and determines the opinions’ probabilities of winning. These insights highlight the unimportance of hypocrisy in consensus formation under neutral conditions. Our results have important societal implications in relation to hidden voter preferences in polls and improve our understanding of opinion formation in a more realistic setting than that of conventional voter models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smart energy meters generate real time, high frequency data which can foster demand management and response of consumers and firms, with potential private and social benefits. However, proper statistical techniques are needed to make sense of this large amount of data and translate them into usable recommendations. Here, we apply Functional Data Analysis (FDA), a novel branch of Statistics that analyses functions—to identify drivers of residential electricity load curves. We evaluate a real time feedback intervention which involved about 1000 Italian households for a period of three years. Results of the FDA modelling reveal, for the first time, daytime-indexed patterns of residential electricity consumption which depend on the ownership of specific clusters of electrical appliances and an overall reduction of consumption after the introduction of real time feedback, unrelated to appliance ownership characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objective: Early detection methods for pancreatic cancer are lacking. We aimed to develop a prediction model for pancreatic cancer based on changes in health captured by healthcare claims data. Methods: We conducted a case-control study on 29,646 Medicare-enrolled patients aged 68 years and above with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) reported to the Surveillance Epidemiology an End Results (SEER) tumor registries program in 2004–2011 and 88,938 age and sex-matched controls. We developed a prediction model using multivariable logistic regression on Medicare claims for 16 risk factors and pre-diagnostic symptoms of PDAC present within 15 months prior to PDAC diagnosis. Claims within 3 months of PDAC diagnosis were excluded in sensitivity analyses. We evaluated the discriminatory power of the model with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and performed cross-validation by bootstrapping. Results: The prediction model on all cases and controls reached AUC of 0.68. Excluding the final 3 months of claims lowered the AUC to 0.58. Among new-onset diabetes patients, the prediction model reached AUC of 0.73, which decreased to 0.63 when claims from the final 3 months were excluded. Performance measures of the prediction models was confirmed by internal validation using the bootstrap method. Conclusion: Models based on healthcare claims for clinical risk factors, symptoms and signs of pancreatic cancer are limited in classifying those who go on to diagnosis of pancreatic cancer and those who do not, especially when excluding claims that immediately precede the diagnosis of PDAC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable development goals are used as a guidance for strategies development on local, regional and national levels. The importance of including young people in this complex process is recognized in all relevant documents (i.e. Agenda 21), however it is not an easy task to elicit opinions and preferences from the youth. Furthermore, the assessment of the sustainable development goals itself presents a challenge for the noisy data and nonlinear relationships in data. Popular approach is fuzzy set models where expert knowledge is presented with comprehensible rules; however expert knowledge elicitation takes a long time too. Several studies proposed an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system approach that combines the fuzzy set theory to model expert knowledge with neural networks for inferring rules and membership functions from data to assess the sustainable development performance. We base our assumptions that ANFIS can be used to predict the importance of sustainable development pillars from the demographic data of young people. For this purpose, we have conducted an online survey on sustainable development goals opinions and importance of young people in Serbia. The sample of 386 respondents has been split into a training sample of 300 instances (to generate membership functions and fuzzy rules) and a testing sample of 86 instances to predict the importance of the three pillars. We have conducted a trace-driven simulation test to validate the results of the proposed ANFIS model. Results of the study provided insights into how the young people in Serbia assess the importance of sustainable development goals. Secondly, the results suggest that ANFIS can be applied to predict values of importance of the three sustainable development pillars with the relative error of Rel Err < 5%. It must be noted that the considered model could be further improved by using training samples with more data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite offering little overall benefit and emerging concerns about their safety, dietary supplements have become increasingly popular. Trust in advertising them may contribute to high confidence in dietary supplements in public opinion. Aim: To develop and validate a screening questionnaire intended for the general public regarding knowledge about dietary supplements and a questionnaire on trust in advertising dietary supplements, and to identify the association between these constructs. Materials and methods: The development and validation of the measures was overseen by the panels of experts. The conceptual frameworks of the constructs were scientifically well grounded. A set of semi-structured interviews and anonymous web-based surveys was performed. The final questionnaire was applied to 220 non-medically educated people and 121 medically educated people. Results: A 17-item questionnaire on knowledge about dietary supplements and eight-item questionnaire on trust in advertising dietary supplements were developed. The measures presented satisfactory proof of validity, however, the psychometric properties of the questionnaire on knowledge were modest. Both the knowledge about dietary supplements in the study group and trust in advertising them were low. A significant negative relationship was found between knowledge about dietary supplements and trust in advertising them among the general public (Pearson’s r = -0.42, 95%CI: -0.52 to -0.30, p<0.0001). This association was especially pronounced in people who reported not taking dietary supplements (Pearson’s r = -0.61, 95%CI: -0.76 to -0.39, p<0.0001). Conclusions: The extensive advertising of dietary supplements appears to be in conflict with promoting evidence-based knowledge about them, which raises substantial concerns for the public health. The results of the study are only preliminary and require further confirmation and exploration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Orbital decompression surgery is performed in patients with Graves’ orbitopathy to treat dysthyroid optical neuropathy (DON) and reduce disfiguring proptosis. The intended proptosis reduction can deviate from the postoperative result and changes of motility with consecutive diplopia can occur. We performed a retrospective study to identify anatomical factors in computed tomography (CT), which influence the surgical effect and postoperative ocular motility and diplopia. Methods: Pre- and postoperative CT-scans of 125 eyes of 68 patients, who mainly underwent a balanced orbital decompression for disfiguring proptosis (≥18mm Hertel Index), have been analyzed. Proptosis, ductions, misalignment and diplopia were assessed before and after surgery. Medial and lateral orbital wall length, conus angle, depth of ethmoidal sinus, orbital surface, length of medial and orbital defect, depth of tissue prolapse and horizontal muscle diameters were analyzed in CT scans before and after surgery. With linear regression and multivariate analyses these parameters have been correlated with postoperative proptosis, abduction deficit, deviation and binocular single vision (BSV). Results: Proptosis could be reduced by 5.3±2mm. Patients with <5mm proptosis reduction had significantly less often new onset of diplopia compared to patients with >5mm reduction (13% vs. 56%, p = 0.02). Multiple linear regression showed a significant correlation between tissue prolapse and depth of the ethmoidal sinus as well as age (p<0.001, r = 0.71). Proptosis reduction could not be predicted by tissue prolapse, defect length or depth of ethmoidal sinus. The abduction deficit correlated significantly with tissue prolapse and orbital surface area (p<0.001, r = 0.37) but not with the horizontal muscle diameter. Conclusion: We were able to show that orbital morphology influences the outcome of balanced orbital decompression surgery in terms of proptosis reduction and motility. However, the rather low coefficients of correlation show that the surgical outcome cannot be predicted with simple CT measurements, although risk factors for postoperative abduction deficit could be found. Therefore, preoperative planning should consider especially the orbital surface area and depth of ethmoidal sinus. Patients should be informed about the higher risk of diplopia with higher proptosis reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical modeling of behavioral sequences yields insight into the rules and mechanisms underlying sequence generation. Grooming in Drosophila melanogaster is characterized by repeated execution of distinct, stereotyped actions in variable order. Experiments demonstrate that, following stimulation by an irritant, grooming progresses gradually from an early phase dominated by anterior cleaning to a later phase with increased walking and posterior cleaning. We also observe that, at an intermediate temporal scale, there is a strong relationship between the amount of time spent performing body-directed grooming actions and leg-directed actions. We then develop a series of data-driven Markov models that isolate and identify the behavioral features governing transitions between individual grooming bouts. We identify action order as the primary driver of probabilistic, but non-random, syntax structure, as has previously been identified. Subsequent models incorporate grooming bout duration, which also contributes significantly to sequence structure. Our results show that, surprisingly, the syntactic rules underlying probabilistic grooming transitions possess action duration-dependent structure, suggesting that sensory input-independent mechanisms guide grooming behavior at short time scales. Finally, the inclusion of a simple rule that modifies grooming transition probabilities over time yields a generative model that recapitulates the key features of observed grooming sequences at several time scales. These discoveries suggest that sensory input guides action selection by modulating internally generated dynamics. Additionally, the discovery of these principles governing grooming in D. melanogaster demonstrates the utility of incorporating temporal information when characterizing the syntax of behavioral sequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The relationships between hedonic deficits, type D personality and suicidal ideation were explored in a group of medical students. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 382 medical students filled out several questionnaires measuring suicide risk, depression (using the Beck Depression Inventory, i.e. BDI), type D personality (using the type D personality scale-14, i.e. DS-14) and anhedonia (using the anhedonia subscale of the BDI, the Snaith Hamilton Pleasure Scale, the Anticipatory and Consummatory subscales of the Physical Anhedonia Scale). Results: State anhedonia and, in particular, recent change of state anhedonia and not trait anhedonia was significantly associated with suicidal ideation, specifically when depression was controlled for. Negative affectivity component of type D personality and anhedonia were independent predictors of suicidal ideation even when depression was controlled for. Loss of pleasure and not loss of interest was a significant predictor of suicidal ideation. Conclusions: Change of state anhedonia and its component of loss of pleasure measuring dissatisfaction in life could be a risk factor of suicidal ideation in medical students. Dissatisfaction, particularly in the medical course, could be a strong predictor of suicidal ideation in medical students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of the shared prosperity goal by the World Bank in 2013 and Sustainable Development Goal 10, on inequality, by the United Nations in 2015 should strengthen the focus of development interventions and cooperation on the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. This paper contributes to the incipient literature on within-country allocations of development institutions and assesses the geographic targeting of World Bank projects to the bottom 40 percent. Bivariate correlations between the allocation of project funding approved over 2005–14 and the geographical distribution of the bottom 40 as measured by survey income or consumption data are complemented by regressions with population and other potential factors affecting the within-country allocations as controls. The correlation analysis shows that, of the 58 countries in the sample, 41 exhibit a positive correlation between the shares of the bottom 40 and World Bank funding, and, in almost half of these, the correlation is above 0.5. Slightly more than a quarter of the countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, exhibit a negative correlation. The regression analysis shows that, once one controls for population, the correlation between the bottom 40 and World Bank funding switches sign and becomes significant and negative on average. This is entirely driven by Sub-Saharan Africa and not observed in the other regions. Hence, the significant and positive correlation in the estimations without controlling for population suggests that World Bank project funding is concentrated in administrative areas in which more people live (including the bottom 40) rather than in poorer administrative areas. Furthermore, capital cities receive disproportionally high shares of World Bank funding on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beauty is the single most frequently and most broadly used aesthetic virtue term. The present study aimed at providing higher conceptual resolution to the broader notion of beauty by comparing it with three closely related aesthetically evaluative concepts which are likewise lexicalized across many languages: elegance, grace(fulness), and sexiness. We administered a variety of questionnaires that targeted perceptual qualia, cognitive and affective evaluations, as well as specific object properties that are associated with beauty, elegance, grace, and sexiness in personal looks, movements, objects of design, and other domains. This allowed us to reveal distinct and highly nuanced profiles of how a beautiful, elegant, graceful, and sexy appearance is subjectively perceived. As aesthetics is all about nuances, the fine-grained conceptual analysis of the four target concepts of our study provides crucial distinctions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Persons with dementia have twice the acute hospital use as older persons without dementia. In addition to straining overburdened healthcare systems, acute hospital use impacts patient and caregiver quality of life and is associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes including death. Reducing avoidable acute hospital use in persons with dementia is thus a global healthcare priority. However, evidence regarding the impact of health service interventions as defined by the Effective Practice and Organization of Care Cochrane Group on acute hospital use is scant and inconclusive. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to synthesize available evidence on the impact of health service interventions on acute hospital use in community-dwelling persons with dementia compared to usual care. Methods: Data Sources: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Cochrane CENTRAL (from 01/1995 to 08/2017). Study eligibility criteria: Randomised controlled trials measuring the impact of health service interventions on acute hospital use (proportion and mean number of emergency department visits and hospitalisations, mean number of hospital days, measured at 12 months, and at longest follow-up) in community-dwelling persons with dementia, compared to usual care. Study selection, appraisal and synthesis methods: Reviewers independently identified studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias, with the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Authors of relevant trials were queried about unpublished data. Random effects model was used for meta-analyses. Effect heterogeneity was assessed through prediction intervals, and explored using sub-group analyses. Findings: Seventeen trials provided data on 4,549 persons. Unpublished data were obtained for 13 trials, representing 65% of synthesized data. Most interventions included a case management or a self-management component. None of the outcome comparisons provided conclusive evidence supporting the hypothesis that these interventions would lead to a decrease in acute hospital use. Furthermore, prediction intervals indicated possible and important increased service use associated with these interventions, such as emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and hospital days. Subgroup analyses did not favour any type of intervention. A limitation of this study is the inclusion of any type of health service intervention, which may have increased the observed heterogeneity. Conclusion: Despite a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis, including predominantly unpublished data, no health service intervention beyond usual care was found to reduce acute hospital use in community-dwelling persons with dementia. An important increase in service use may be associated with these interventions. Further research is urgently needed to identify effective interventions for this vulnerable population to limit rising acute hospital use, associated costs and adverse outcomes. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42016046444. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the role of extrinsic and intrinsic predictors in the perception of affect in mostly unfamiliar musical chords from the Bohlen-Pierce microtonal tuning system. Extrinsic predictors are derived, in part, from long-term statistical regularities in music; for example, the prevalence of a chord in a corpus of music that is relevant to a participant. Conversely, intrinsic predictors make no use of long-term statistical regularities in music; for example, psychoacoustic features inherent in the music, such as roughness. Two types of affect were measured for each chord: pleasantness/unpleasantness and happiness/sadness. We modelled the data with a number of novel and well-established intrinsic predictors, namely roughness, harmonicity, spectral entropy and average pitch height; and a single extrinsic predictor, 12-TET Dissimilarity, which was estimated by the chord’s smallest distance to any 12-tone equally tempered chord. Musical sophistication was modelled as a potential moderator of the above predictors. Two experiments were conducted, each using slightly different tunings of the Bohlen-Pierce musical system: a just intonation version and an equal-tempered version. It was found that, across both tunings and across both affective responses, all the tested intrinsic features and 12-TET Dissimilarity have consistent influences in the expected direction. These results contrast with much current music perception research, which tends to assume the dominance of extrinsic over intrinsic predictors. This study highlights the importance of both intrinsic characteristics of the acoustic signal itself, as well as extrinsic factors, such as 12-TET Dissimilarity, on perception of affect in music. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Object handovers between humans are common in our daily life but the mechanisms underlying handovers are still largely unclear. A good understanding of these mechanisms is important not only for a better understanding of human social behaviors, but also for the prospect of an automatized society in which machines will need to perform similar objects exchanges with humans. In this paper, we analyzed how humans determine the location of object transfer during handovers- to determine whether they can predict the preferred handover location of a partner, the variation of this prediction in 3D space, and to examine how much of a role vision plays in the whole process. For this we developed a paradigm that allows us to compare handovers by humans with and without on-line visual feedback. Our results show that humans have the surprising ability to modulate their handover location according to partners they have just met such that the resulting handover errors are in the order of few centimeters, even in the absence of vision. The handover errors are least along the axis joining the two partners, suggesting a limited role for visual feedback in this direction. Finally, we show that the handover locations are explained very well by a linear model considering the heights, genders and social dominances of the two partners, and the distance between them. We developed separate models for the behavior of ‘givers’ and ‘receivers’ and discuss how the behavior of the same individual changes depending on his role in the handover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Comorbid depression is common among patients with diabetes and has severe health consequences, but often remains unrecognized. Several questionnaires are used to screen for depression. A systematic review and meta-analysis regarding the diagnostic accuracy of depression questionnaires in adults with diabetes is unavailable. Our aim was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of depression questionnaires in adults with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. Methods: PubMed, Embase and PsycINFO were searched from inception to 28 February 2018. Studies were included when the diagnostic accuracy of depression questionnaires was assessed in a diabetes population and the reference standard was a clinical interview. Data extraction was performed by one reviewer and checked by another. Two reviewers independently conducted the quality assessment (QUADAS-2). Diagnostic accuracy was pooled in bivariate random effects models. The main outcome was diagnostic accuracy, expressed as sensitivity and specificity, of depression questionnaires in an adult diabetes population. This study is reported according to PRISMA-DTA and is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018092950). Results: A total 6,097 peer-reviewed articles were screened. Twenty-one studies (N = 5,703 patients) met the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Twelve different depression questionnaires were identified, of which the CES-D (n = 6 studies) and PHQ-9 (n = 7 studies) were the most frequently evaluated. Risk of bias was unclear for multiple domains in the majority of studies. In the meta-analyses, five (N = 1,228) studies of the CES-D (≥16), five (N = 1,642) of the PHQ-9 (≥10) and four (N = 822) of the algorithm of the PHQ-9 were included in the pooled analysis. The CES-D (≥16) had a pooled sensitivity of 85.0% (95%CI, 71.3–92.8%) and a specificity of 71.6% (95%CI, 62.5–79.2%); the PHQ-9 (≥10) had a sensitivity of 81.5% (95%CI, 57.1–93.5%) and a specificity of 79.7% (95%CI, 62.1–90.4%). The algorithm for the PHQ-9 had a sensitivity of 60.9% (95%CI, 52.3–90.8%) and a specificity of 64.0% (95%CI, 53.0–93.9%). Conclusions: This review indicates that the CES-D had the highest sensitivity, whereas the PHQ-9 had the highest specificity, although confidence intervals were wide and overlapping. The algorithm for the PHQ-9 had the lowest sensitivity and specificity. Given the variance in results and suboptimal reporting of studies, further high quality studies are needed to confirm the diagnostic accuracy of these depression questionnaires in patients with diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a minimal agent-based model to understand the effects of the interplay between dispersal and geometric constraints in metapopulation dynamics under the Allee Effect. The model, which does not impose nonlinear birth and death rates, is studied both analytically and numerically. Our results indicate the existence of a survival-extinction boundary with monotonic behavior for weak spatial constraints and a nonmonotonic behavior for strong spatial constraints so that there is an optimal dispersal that maximizes the survival probability. Such optimal dispersal has empirical support from recent experiments with engineered bacteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The primary goal was to examine the influence of early specialization on the performance of senior elite swimmers. Secondly, to provide information about the influence of swim style, distance, sex, status, country, years of high-level competition (YHLC) and age in swimmer’s performance. Design: Data was obtained from International Federation of Swimming (FINA) regarding the participants 2006–2017 of junior and senior World Championships (WCs). The final filtered database included 4076 swimmers after removing those participating only in junior WCs. Method: Cramer V coefficient, double and triple-entry tables were used to measure the relationship between the positions occupied in junior and senior phases. A One-Way ANOVA analysis was used to explain the variables time and rank between swimmers who participated in junior and senior WC or just in senior in all the distances and swim styles (SS). A univariate general linear model (GLM) was used to examine the association between time/rank and category (swimmers that participated previously in junior WC or not); YHLC; country; status (highest finishing position: final/semi-final/heats) and age. Results: Significant differences (p < .001) were found in the GLM, with Rank as dependent variable, for all the variables. Showing that swimmers that participated previously in junior categories obtained greater results in all the interactions, except in 1500m freestyle. Significant differences (p < .001) were found between the variables position and YHLC, showing the variable position improvements as swimmers attended more WCs. Conclusion: Competing in junior WC has a positive influence in achieve posteriori success in FINA WC. YHLC have a positive impact to achieve better positions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]