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Although representing a rather small percentage of gun deaths in the United States, mass shootings receive a disproportionate share of crime news coverage, with the fears of countless Americans at a level well above the actual risk. This article attempts to clarify some of the wide-ranging confusion regarding what exactly is a mass shooting, how often they occur, and whether they have been on the rise over the past several years. After discussion of some methodological issues associated with measuring prevalence, trends exhibited in several reliable data sources on mass shooting are presented. The article concludes with a brief discussion of contagion and whether it is reasonable to expect that the recent spike in mass shootings will persist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholarship on mass public shootings has increased in recent years as comprehensive datasets have become more available. As a result, much is known about the contextual and offender related characteristics of such attacks. However, less research has been conducted on attacks that were planned but ultimately did not occur. Understanding how mass public shootings may be thwarted or averted is important for both policy and theoretical reasons. In this paper, we describe a new dataset of averted mass public shooting threats (N = 194) from 2000–2019 and compare them to mass public shootings that were completed during this time (N = 97). Several noteworthy findings emerged, including that nearly half of the averted cases were reported by a friend or acquaintance, most targeted a specific location or group, and averted cases were more likely to involve school targets and co-offenders. Implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Mass shootings seemingly lie outside the grasp of explanation and prediction, because they are statistical outliers—in terms of their frequency and severity—within the broader context of crime and violence. Innovative scholarship has developed procedures to estimate the future likelihood of rare catastrophic events such as earthquakes that exceed 7.0 on the Richter scale or terrorist attacks that are similar in magnitude to 9/11. Methods: Because the frequency and severity of mass public shootings follow a distribution resembling these previously studied rare catastrophic event classes, we utilized similar procedures to forecast the future severity of these incidents within the United States. Results: Using a dataset containing 156 mass public shootings that took place in the U.S. between 1976 and 2018, we forecast the future probability of attacks reaching each of a variety of severity levels in terms of the number of gunfire victims killed and wounded across three different choices of tail model, three different scenarios for future incident rates, and other parameters. Using a set of mid-range parameters, we find that the probability of an event as deadly as the 2017 massacre in Las Vegas occurring before 2040 is 35% (90% uncertainty interval [8, 72]) and we characterize how this projection varies substantially with choice of modeling parameters. Conclusions: Our results suggest an uncertain, but concerning, future risk of large-scale mass public shootings, while also illustrating how such forecasts depend on assumptions made about the tail location and other details of the severity distribution model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the characteristics of mass public shootings from 2000 through 2019 that impacted the extent of news coverage. A negative binomial regression predicting AP story counts indicated substantially greater coverage of shootings with a high number of casualties; that target government facilities, schools, or houses of worship; that are perpetrated by younger assailants, particularly with indications of mental illness; that involve terrorism or hate-motivation; that end in the assailant's arrest rather than death; and, to a lesser extent, that include larger shares of victims who are White, women, children, and strangers. Overall, the disproportionate coverage contributes to distorted perceptions of risk and reinforces inaccurate stereotypes about these crimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mass public shootings have generated significant levels of fear in the recent years, with many observers criticizing the media for fostering a moral panic, if not an actual rise in the frequency of such attacks. Scholarly research suggests that the media can potentially impact the prevalence of mass shootings in two respects: (i) some individuals may be inspired to mimic the actions of highly publicized offenders; and (ii) a more general contagion process may manifest as a temporary increase in the likelihood of shootings associated with a triggering event. In this study of mass shootings since 2000, we focus on short-term contagion, rather than imitation that can traverse years. Specifically, after highlighting the sequencing of news coverage prior and subsequent to mass shootings, we apply multivariate point process models to disentangle the correlated incidence of mass public shootings and news coverage of such events. The findings suggest that mass public shootings have a strong effect on the level of news reporting, but that news reporting on the topic has little impact, at least in the relative short-term, on the subsequent prevalence of mass shootings. Finally, the results appear to rule out the presence of strong self-excitation of mass shootings, placing clear limits on generalized short-term contagion effects. Supplementary files for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-021-09511-y [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]