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In statistical landslide susceptibility evaluation, the quality of the model and its prediction image heavily depends on the quality of the landslide inventories used for calibration. However, regional-scale inventories made available by public territorial administrations are typically affected by an unknown grade of incompleteness and mapping inaccuracy. In this research, a procedure is proposed for verifying and solving such limits by applying a two-step susceptibility modeling procedure. In the Torto River basin (central-northern Sicily, Italy), using an available regional landslide inventory (267 slide and 78 flow cases), two SUFRA_1 models were first prepared and used to assign a landslide susceptibility level to each slope unit (SLU) in which the study area was partitioned. For each of the four susceptibility classes that were obtained, 30% of the mapping units were randomly selected and their stable/unstable status was checked by remote analysis. The new, increased inventories were finally used to recalibrate two SUFRA_2 models. The prediction skills of the SUFRA_1 and SUFRA_2 models were then compared by testing their accuracy in matching landslide distribution in a test sub-basin where a high-resolution systematic inventory had been prepared. According to the results, the strong limits of the SUFRA_1 models (sensitivity: 0.67 and 0.57 for slide and flow, respectively) were largely solved by the SUFRA_2 model (sensitivity: 1 for both slide and flow), suggesting the proposed procedure as a possibly suitable modeling strategy for regional susceptibility studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimally sizing grid cells is a relevant research issue in landslide susceptibility evaluation. In fact, the size of the adopted mapping units influences several aspects spanning from statistical (the number of positive/negative cases and prevalence and resolution/precision trade-off) and purely geomorphological (the representativeness of the mapping units and the diagnostic areas) to cartographic (the suitability of the obtained prediction images for the final users) topics. In this paper, the results of landslide susceptibility modelling in a 343 km2 catchment for three different types of landslides (rotational/translational slides, slope flows and local flows) using different pixel-size mapping units (5, 8, 10, 16 and 32 m) are compared and discussed. The obtained results show that the higher-resolution model (5 m) did not produce the best performance for any of the landslide typologies. The model with 8 m sized pixels displayed the optimal threshold size for slides and slope flows. In contrast, for local flows, an increasing trend of model prediction accuracy was reached with 32 m pixels, which was a higher value than that presented using 8 m pixels. The variable importance analysis demonstrated that the better performance of the 8 m cells was due to their effectiveness in capturing morphological conditions which favour slope instability (profile curvature and middle and high ridges). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research proposes a simple but geomorphologically adequate method to produce a combined landslide susceptibility map. In fact, in a logic of real use, offering type-specific landslide susceptibility maps to land use planners and administration could be not a successful solution. On the other hand, the simple grouping of more types of landslides could be misleading for model calibration considering that the relationships between slope failures and geo-environmental predictors should be conveyed by the abundance of each type of landslide resulting not specific and diagnostic for each typology. In this test, after having produced independent models for flow, slide and complex landslide by exploiting MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) and a set of type-specific geo)environmental variables, a combined landslide susceptibility map was obtained by combining the scores of the three source maps. The combined map was finally validated with a new unknown archive, showing very good performances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Featured Application: This research deals with a very relevant topic in the framework of landslide susceptibility mapping, highlighting some very critical drawbacks in using a weak landslide inventory for regional-scale assessment. Tools and strategies for recognizing and approaching such limits are given. This research is focused on the evaluation of the reliability of regional landslide susceptibility models obtained by exploiting inhomogeneous (for quality, resolution and/or triggering related type and intensity) collected inventories for calibration. At a large-scale glance, merging more inventories can result in well-performing models hiding potential strong predictive deficiencies. An example of the limits that such kinds of models can display is given by a landslide susceptibility study, which was carried out for a large sector of the coastal area of El Salvador, where an apparently well-performing regional model (AUC = 0.87) was obtained by regressing a dataset through multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), including five landslide inventories from volcanic areas (Ilopango and Coatepeque caldera; San Salvador, San Miguel, and San Vicente Volcanoes). A multiscale validation strategy was applied to verify its actual predictive skill on a local base, bringing to light the loss in the predictive power of the regional model, with a lowering of AUC (20% on average) and strong effects in terms of sensitivity and specificity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In landslide susceptibility modeling, the selection of the mapping units is a very relevant topic both in terms of geomorphological adequacy and suitability of the models and final maps. In this paper, a test to integrate pixels and slope units is presented. MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) modeling was applied to assess landslide susceptibility based on a 12 predictors and a 1608 cases database. A pixel-based model was prepared and the scores zoned into 10 different types of slope units, obtained by differently combining two half-basin (HB) and four landform classification (LCL) coverages. The predictive performance of the 10 models were then compared to select the best performing one, whose prediction image was finally modified to consider also the propagation stage. The results attest integrating HB with LCL as more performing than using simple HB classification, with a very limited loss in predictive performance with respect to the pixel-based model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• WoE and MARS susceptibility analysis for slide, flow and complex landslides. • Controlling factor importance in relation to the final susceptibility score. • Models attested by good or excellent AUC, with higher performance indeces for MARS. • Lithotecnical and LCL classes discriminate the landslide domain. • Topographic attributes (slope, curvatures, SPI and TWI) modulate the score within the landslide mechanism. Landslide susceptibility modelling is a crucial tool for implementing effective strategies in landslide risk mitigation. A plethora of statistical methods is available for generating accurate prediction images; however, the reliability of these models in terms of geomorphological adequacy is often overlooked by scholars. This critical flaw may result in concealed prediction errors, undermining the trustworthiness of the obtained maps. A key aspect of evaluating the geomorphological soundness of these models lies in factor analysis, specifically considering the correlation of explanatory variables with the final susceptibility score rather than solely focusing on their impact on model accuracy. This study delves into research conducted in the Bidente river basin (Italy) that analyes results obtained from slide, flow, and complex susceptibility models using Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) statistical methods. The research critically examines each factor class's role in defining susceptibility scores for different landslide typologies. The comparison between susceptibility maps generated by WoE and MARS for each typology (slide = 0.78; flow = 0.85; complex: 0.79) (slide = 0.78; flow = 0.85; complex: 0.79)reveals good to excellent prediction skill, with MARS demonstrating a 5 % higher performance index. The study emphasises the importance of spatial relationships between variables and landslide occurrences, highlighting that individual classes of variables influence the final susceptibility score based on their combined role with other predictor classes. In particular, in this study, results highlight that lithotecnical and landform classification classes delimit the landslide domain, while topographic attributes (steepness, curvatures, SPI and TWI) modulate the score inside. The proposed approach offers insights into investigating the geomorphological adequacy of landslide prediction images, emphasising the significance of factor analysis in evaluating model reliability and uncovering potential errors in susceptibility maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]