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Earlier this year, unusually high spring runoff caused floods in Orenburg Oblast. Thousands were left homeless after dams burst along the Ural River in Orsk. Yet again, authorities were unprepared [...]

At the start of Russia's War on Ukraine, everyone tried to understand who was supporting the war, why, and in what proportion. Two years later, more and more Russians have [...]

SURIVAL RUSSIAN IN WAITIME LINGUISTIC LANDMARKS FROM THE WAR'S FIRST YEAR Reflecting the changing realities brought on by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian society was rocked that [...]

BELGRADE LIFE On my second day in Belgrade I was asked to join a local colleague in checking out our new office. I rushed to Novi Belgrade--with which I was [...]

Although we forecast improvements to the public finances in the medium term, the fiscal deficit will remain large, averaging 2.5% of GDP per year in 2025-29. We assume that expenditure [...]

EIU expects a broadly stable political environment in the 2025-29 forecast period, reflecting minimal risks to governability and widespread popular support for the president, Nayib Bukele, whose approval ratings stand [...]

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2024[sup.a] 2025[sup.b] 2026[sup.b] 2027[sup.b] 2028[sup.b] 2029[sup.b] Real GDP growth 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 Gross agricultural production growth 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.3 3.1 [...]

We expect economic growth to slow to 3.2% in 2025, from an estimated 3.3% in 2024, mainly reflecting a US slowdown. We expect economic growth to remain modest in 2026-29, [...]

We forecast that the fiscal deficit will narrow slightly in 2025, to 2.1% of GDP, from an estimated 2.3% of GDP in 2024. The government's proposed budget for 2025, which [...]

Political and economic outlook Guatemala benefits from orthodox economic policies and fairly robust fundamentals. Private consumption, supported by workers' remittances, is a major driver of growth. Reliance on the US [...]

Social policy reform will be at the centre of Mr Arévalo's agenda for the rest of his term. The government has focused on education, health, public safety and pensions and, [...]

The president, Bernardo Arévalo of the left-wing Movimiento Semilla (Semilla), will struggle with weak governability for the remainder of his term, which ends in 2028. Risks to political stability will [...]

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2024[sup.a] 2025[sup.b] 2026[sup.b] 2027[sup.b] 2028[sup.b] 2029[sup.b] Real GDP growth 3.8 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.0 Crude oil ('000 b/d) 908 940 1,005 1,052 1,067 [...]

The current-account deficit will widen in 2025, as import growth remains robust, while global energy prices fall and oil export volumes are constrained by OPEC+ supply cuts. Oil output will [...]

We forecast that average inflation will edge down in 2025-29, as global commodity prices, especially for food, ease and the authorities allow the exchange rate to broadly stabilise against the [...]

Algeria's real GDP growth will ease in 2025. Although economic activity will continue to be buoyed by robust domestic demand, this will offer less support than in 2024, owing to [...]

Policy will remain statist, and centred on an outdated rentier economic model that depends on the oil and gas sector. Algeria has signed several major partnership deals with European energy [...]

Political and economic outlook Algeria is Africa's second-largest crude oil producer and top natural gas producer. Strong demand for Algerian hydrocarbons, especially gas, will spur investment in the sector. The [...]

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2024[sup.a] 2025[sup.b] 2026[sup.b] 2027[sup.b] 2028[sup.b] 2029[sup.b] Real GDP growth 6.2 9.0 6.6 6.2 6.1 6.2 Industrial production growth 6.0 15.5 8.0 6.3 6.6 6.6 [...]

Monetary policy is determined by UEMOA's central bank, the Banque centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'ouest (BCEAO), which prioritises inflation-targeting in its eight member countries, as well as maintaining [...]

Reforms to address macroeconomic imbalances, enhance productivity and improve the business environment will move up the agenda under Mr Faye's leadership. IMF programmes, in place until May 2026, will underpin [...]

The CFA franc is pegged to the euro at CFAfr655.96:EUR1 and therefore fluctuates in line with euro-US dollar movements. We expect the euro to depreciate slightly against the US dollar [...]

Fiscal consolidation, which was scheduled to begin in 2024, will be delayed for the remainder of year as Mr Faye seeks a strong electoral mandate in the November legislative election. [...]

Owing to falling global commodity prices and new food subsidies introduced in June, Senegal entered a deflationary period in July, which is likely to last over the remainder of 2024; [...]

Post-election economic prospects for the short to medium term are promising, supported by the start of oil output in June 2024 and the expected start of gas production and exports [...]

EIU expects political stability to strengthen over the remainder of 2024 and during our 2025-29 forecast period after Bassirou Diomaye Faye won the March presidential election. Mr Faye's victory will [...]

Political and economic outlook The services sector is the largest contributor to real GDP, but the start of production of oil in June and gas in the fourth quarter of [...]

The short-term focus will remain on the dismantling of the unorthodox economic programme that started in 2021, including tighter monetary policy, which will reassure investors. These policies are designed to [...]

Political and economic outlook Turkey is an emerging, largely free-market economy and a leading producer of agricultural goods, textiles, vehicles and construction materials. Political tensions, lack of reform and the [...]

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2024[sup.a] 2025[sup.b] 2026[sup.b] 2027[sup.b] 2028[sup.b] 2029[sup.b] Real GDP growth 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 Gross fixed investment growth -2.2 2.3 3.5 3.8 3.9 [...]

Quarterly forecasts 2024 2025 2026 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr GDP [...]

We forecast that real GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2025; the economy will benefit from stronger credit growth to consumers and investors as the BCCh nears the end of [...]

We expect inflation to remain above the BCCh's 2-4% target range for most of 2025 amid significant utility price increases. Inflation should return to the target rate of 3% by [...]

Fiscal policy will remain broadly orthodox and pragmatic under Mr Boric and under the next government, which we expect to be led by a right-of-centre party. We forecast that the [...]

The peso will benefit from firm copper prices and a more cautious monetary-easing cycle by the BCCh, which will slow the narrowing of the interest-rate differential with the US. Even [...]

Political and economic outlook Chile is an open economy with strong macroeconomic fundamentals and independent institutions. It is the world's largest producer and exporter of copper, and its second-largest producer [...]

The rupee will remain in a gradual mode of depreciation over 2024 and 2025, as high inflation, persistent deficits on the current and fiscal accounts, domestic monetary easing and a [...]

We forecast that real GDP growth will slow to 6.9% in 2024/25, from 8.2% in 2023/24, before decelerating further to 6.6% in 2025/26. Rural incomes will continue to pick up [...]

Quarterly forecasts 2024 2025 2026 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr GDP [...]

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2024[sup.a] 2025[sup.b] 2026[sup.b] 2027[sup.b] 2028[sup.b] 2029[sup.b] Real GDP growth[sup.c] 6.9 6.6 6.8 6.2 6.4 6.5 Industrial production growth[sup.d] 6.1 5.3 5.9 6.2 6.8 5.8 [...]

We forecast that consumer price inflation will decelerate to 4.3% in 2025, from an estimated 4.7% in 2024, as global commodity prices and domestic demand moderate. Overall monsoon rainfall exceeded [...]

We forecast that the RBI will start its monetary easing cycle with a 25-basis-point reduction in the policy interest rate (the repo rate) to 6.25% in December 2024, as it [...]

The BJP's narrow parliamentary majority will have a mildly negative effect on business confidence, given the impediments that it will face in passing and implementing select reforms via parliament. Large-scale [...]

We forecast that the government's budget deficit will narrow to 4.9% of GDP in fiscal year 2024/25 (April-March). The government will surpass its budgeted revenue targets, underpinned by robust tax [...]