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Arctic fjords are experiencing rapid environmental shifts due to climate change, which may have significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. However, the impact of climate change on fjord biodiversity is difficult to quantify given the low accessibility and high cost to sample these areas. In this study, we sampled locations from inside to outside an Arctic fjord and used environmental DNA metabarcoding to assess how the biodiversity of fish and eukaryotic plankton communities relate with environmental conditions. We detected a total of 12 fish taxa and 872 MOTUs for eukaryotes and found marked gradients of temperature and salinity driven by the distance to the glacier at the terminal part of the fjord and depth. Eukaryotic richness was mainly associated with lower temperature and chlorophyll a. Moreover, co-inertia analyses showed a shared structure between eukaryotes assemblages and the environmental gradients. A partial association between eukaryote and fishes suggest a potential shared effect of environmental gradients among these taxa. Our findings provide a baseline for future studies to assess how these assemblages may be impacted by ongoing environmental changes and highlight how fjord ice loss and warming might shift environmental gradients and species distribution under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Coastal fishes have a fundamental role in marine ecosystem functioning and contributions to people, but face increasing threats due to climate change, habitat degradation and overexploitation. The extent to which human pressures are impacting coastal fish biodiversity in comparison with geographic and environmental factors at large spatial scale is still under scrutiny. Here, we took advantage of environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding to investigate the relationship between fish biodiversity, including taxonomic and genetic components, and environmental but also socio‐economic factors. Location: Tropical, temperate and polar coastal areas. Time period: Present day. Major taxa studied: Marine fishes. Methods: We analysed fish eDNA in 263 stations (samples) in 68 sites distributed across polar, temperate and tropical regions. We modelled the effect of environmental, geographic and socio‐economic factors on α‐ and β‐diversity. We then computed the partial effect of each factor on several fish biodiversity components using taxonomic molecular units (MOTU) and genetic sequences. We also investigated the relationship between fish genetic α‐ and β‐diversity measured from our barcodes, and phylogenetic but also functional diversity. Results: We show that fish eDNA MOTU and sequence α‐ and β‐diversity have the strongest correlation with environmental factors on coastal ecosystems worldwide. However, our models also reveal a negative correlation between biodiversity and human dependence on marine ecosystems. In areas with high dependence, diversity of all fish, cryptobenthic fish and large fish MOTUs declined steeply. Finally, we show that a sequence diversity index, accounting for genetic distance between pairs of MOTUs, within and between communities, is a reliable proxy of phylogenetic and functional diversity. Main conclusions: Together, our results demonstrate that short eDNA sequences can be used to assess climate and direct human impacts on marine biodiversity at large scale in the Anthropocene and can further be extended to investigate biodiversity in its phylogenetic and functional dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: The importance of quantifying the contribution of historical processes in shaping current biodiversity patterns is now recognized, but quantitative approaches that explicitly link speciation, extinction and dispersal processes to palaeo‐environmental changes are currently lacking. Here, we propose a spatial diversification model of lineages through time (SPLIT) based on the reconstruction of palaeo‐environments. We illustrate our approach using mangroves as a case study and evaluate whether habitat changes caused by plate tectonics explain the current biodiversity patterns of this group. Innovations: The SPLIT model allows one to simulate the evolutionary dynamics of species ranges by spatially linking speciation, extinction and dispersal processes to habitat changes over geological time periods. The SPLIT model provides a mechanistic expectation of speciation and extinction assuming that species are ecologically identical and not interacting. The likelihood of speciation and extinction is equivalent across species and depends on two dispersal parameters interacting with habitat dynamics (d a maximum dispersal distance and ds a distance threshold beyond which gene flow is absent). Beyond classical correlative approaches, this model tracks biodiversity dynamics under palaeo‐environmental changes and provides multiple expectations (i.e., α‐, β‐diversity, phylogenies) that can be compared to empirical patterns. Main conclusions: The SPLIT model allows a better understanding of the origin of biodiversity by explicitly accounting for habitat changes over geological times. The simulations applied to the mangrove case study reproduced the observed longitudinal gradient in species richness, the empirical pattern of β‐diversity and also provided inference on diversification rates. Future developments may include niche evolution and species interactions to evaluate the importance of non‐neutral mechanisms. The method is fully implemented in the InsideDNA platform for bioinformatics analyses, and all modelling results can be accessed via interactive web links. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine ecological indicators can be used to assess the condition of the pelagic ecosystems. The bloom onset provides a warning bell for possible changes in trophic interactions and biogeochemical processes. However, depicting the phenology of phytoplankton blooms at high latitudes, where long-term observations are sparse or unavailable, is not a straightforward task. A data-interpolating empirical orthogonal function algorithm was applied to daily satellite-retrieved chlorophyll- a images to produce a long-term (1998-2014) and cloud-free data set over the North Water (NOW) polynya. The seasonal bloom was modeled using a multi-Gaussian approach from which a baseline of phenological characteristics was extracted. The correlation analysis highlights the influence of environmental factors, such as sea surface temperature, cloud fraction, wind stress, and sea-ice concentration, in modulating the bloom start date, its duration, and amplitude. The year-to-year variability in bloom onset appears to be controlled by a delicate balance between oceanographic and meteorological conditions. Blooms last longer during years characterized by a longer open-water period and are shorter during those characterized by greater sea-ice coverage. Noteworthy is the decrease in phytoplankton bloom amplitude over the 17 years examined. Collectively, these outcomes depict the NOW as a climate-sensitive region in which the pelagic marine ecosystem seems to be going toward a decline in chlorophyll- a concentrations. Satellite time series are still too short to differentiate between inter-annual variability, inter-decadal variability, and climate change signal. Should these changes persist; however, the NOW may no longer act as a productive regional oasis supporting thriving populations of zooplankton and top predators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is inducing deep modifications in local communities worldwide as a consequence of individualistic species range shifts. Understanding how complex interaction networks will be reorganized under climate change represents a major challenge in the fields of ecology and biogeography. However, forecasting the potential effects of climate change on local communities, and more particularly on food-web structure, requires the consideration of highly structuring processes, such as trophic interactions. A major breakthrough is therefore expected by combining predictive models integrating habitat selection processes, the physiological limits of marine species and their trophic interactions. In this study, we forecasted the potential impacts of climate change on the local food-web structure of the highly threatened Gulf of Gabes ecosystem located in the south of the Mediterranean Sea. We coupled the climatic envelope and habitat models to an allometric niche food web model, hence taking into account the different processes acting at regional (climate) and local scales (habitat selection and trophic interactions). Our projections under the A2 climate change scenario showed that future food webs would be composed of smaller species with fewer links, resulting in a decrease of connectance, generality, vulnerability and mean trophic level of communities and an increase of the average path length, which may have large consequences on ecosystem functioning. The unified framework presented here, by connecting food-web ecology, biogeography and seascape ecology, allows the exploration of spatial aspects of interspecific interactions under climate change and improves our current understanding of climate change impacts on local marine food webs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food-web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food-web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080-2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large-scale impacts of climate change on marine food-web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are major tools to protect biodiversity and sustain fisheries. For species with a sedentary adult phase and a dispersive larval phase, the effectiveness of MPA networks for population persistence depends on connectivity through larval dispersal. However, connectivity patterns between MPAs remain largely unknown at large spatial scales. Here, we used a biophysical model to evaluate connectivity between MPAs in the Mediterranean Sea, a region of extremely rich biodiversity that is currently protected by a system of approximately a hundred MPAs. The model was parameterized according to the dispersal capacity of the dusky grouper Epinephelus marginatus, an archetypal conservation-dependent species, with high economic importance and emblematic in the Mediterranean. Using various connectivity metrics and graph theory, we showed that Mediterranean MPAs are far from constituting a true, well-connected network. On average, each MPA was directly connected to four others and MPAs were clustered into several groups. Two MPAs (one in the Balearic Islands and one in Sardinia) emerged as crucial nodes for ensuring multi-generational connectivity. The high heterogeneity of MPA distribution, with low density in the South-Eastern Mediterranean, coupled with a mean dispersal distance of 120 km, leaves about 20% of the continental shelf without any larval supply. This low connectivity, here demonstrated for a major Mediterranean species, poses new challenges for the creation of a future Mediterranean network of well-connected MPAs providing recruitment to the whole continental shelf. This issue is even more critical given that the expected reduction of pelagic larval duration following sea temperature rise will likely decrease connectivity even more. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of biodiversity, and climate warming is expected to have a significant influence on its endemic fish species. However, no previous studies have predicted whether fish species will experience geographic range extensions or contractions as a consequence of warming. Here, we projected the potential future climatic niches of 75 Mediterranean Sea endemic fish species based on a global warming scenario implemented with the Mediterranean model OPAMED8 and a multimodel inference, which included uncertainty. By 2070-2099, the average surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea was projected to warm by 3.1 °C. Projections for 2041-2060 are that 25 species would qualify for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List, and six species would become extinct. By 2070-2099, 45 species were expected to qualify for the IUCN Red List whereas 14 were expected to become extinct. By the middle of the 21st century, the coldest areas of the Mediterranean Sea (Adriatic Sea and Gulf of Lion) would act as a refuge for cold-water species, but by the end of the century, those areas were projected to become a 'cul-de-sac' that would drive those species towards extinction. In addition, the range size of endemic species was projected to undergo extensive fragmentation, which is a potentially aggravating factor. Since a majority of endemic fishes are specialists, regarding substratum and diet, we may expect a reduced ability to track projected climatic niches. As a whole, 25% of the Mediterranean Sea continental shelf was predicted to experience a total modification of endemic species assemblages by the end of the 21st century. This expected turnover rate could be mitigated by marine protected areas or accelerated by fishing pressure or competition from exotic fishes. It remains a challenge to predict how these assemblage modifications might affect ecosystem function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, we describe an exploited continental shelf ecosystem (Gulf of Gabes) in the southern Mediterranean Sea using an Ecopath mass-balance model. This allowed us to determine the structure and functioning of this ecosystem and assess the impacts of fishing upon it. The model represents the average state of the ecosystem between 2000 and 2005. It includes 41 functional groups, which encompass the entire trophic spectrum from phytoplankton to higher trophic levels (e.g., fishes, birds, and mammals), and also considers the fishing activities in the area (five fleets). Model results highlight an important bentho-pelagic coupling in the system due to the links between plankton and benthic invertebrates through detritus. A comparison of this model with those developed for other continental shelf regions in the Mediterranean (i.e., the southern Catalan, the northern-central Adriatic, and the northern Aegean Seas) emphasizes similar patterns in their trophic functioning. Low and medium trophic levels (i.e., zooplankton, benthic molluscs, and polychaetes) and sharks were identified as playing key ecosystem roles and were classified as keystone groups. An analysis of ecosystem attributes indicated that the Gulf of Gabes is the least mature (i.e., in the earliest stages of ecosystem development) of the four ecosystems that were compared and it is suggested that this is due, at least in part, to the impacts of fishing. Bottom trawling was identified as having the widest-ranging impacts across the different functional groups and the largest impacts on some commercially-targeted demersal fish species. Several exploitation indices highlighted that the Gulf of Gabes ecosystem is highly exploited, a finding which is supported by stock assessment outcomes. This suggests that it is unlikely that the gulf can be fished at sustainable levels, a situation which is similar to other marine ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

[Display omitted] • The spatiotemporal dynamics of demersal fish communities were investigated in the Bay of Biscay (BoB) and Celtic Sea (CS). • Two decades of changes in temperature, trophic resources, habitat and fishing pressure on community were assessed. • Diversity patterns showed greater variability in space than in time and species richness and abundance weakly changed. • Communities are becoming more spatially similar (homogeneous) in the CS and differentiated in the BoB. • Such patterns are best explained by the dynamics of trophic resources mediated by small pelagic species. Climate change and resource exploitation represent strong selection pressure affecting the spatio-temporal dynamics of marine assemblages that ensure food provision for humans. However, such dynamics remain poorly documented, and their drivers unclear. Here, we investigate changes in fish assemblages of two key European fishing areas, the Bay of Biscay (BoB) and the Celtic Sea (CS), during the last two decades. We quantify the relative contribution of change in energy (i.e. temperature and trophic resources), habitat (depth, substrate, oxygen) and fishing pressure to explaining observed spatial and temporal variations in fish diversity. We used long-term scientific surveys to evaluate the spatio-temporal changes in species richness (SR), abundance and composition of demersal fish (Actinopterygii) assemblages at different spatial scales combined with a range of regression models and variance partitioning. Diversity patterns showed greater variability in space than in time: SR weakly changed over time, while compositional dissimilarity showed local patterns of taxonomic homogenization in the CS and differentiation in the southern BoB, where local assemblages were becoming more similar and dissimilar over time, respectively. Energy funnelled through small pelagic species as a potential trophic link affecting the dynamics of demersal assemblages was the most important driver, while habitat and fishing pressure had limited importance. Our study revealed contrasted dynamics of demersal fish assemblages at a regional scale that were best explained by the dynamics of small pelagic species. Direct effects of environmental forcing and fishing pressure were limited in both regions which have a long history of fishing and still remain relatively buffered from global warming effects. This research paved the way to combine methods inspired by biogeography with scientific monitoring surveys to detect spatio-temporal dynamics of fish assemblages and their drivers in marine ecosystems under multiple pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are major tools to protect biodiversity and sustain fisheries. For species with a sedentary adult phase and a dispersive larval phase, the effectiveness of MPA networks for population persistence depends on connectivity through larval dispersal. However, connectivity patterns between MPAs remain largely unknown at large spatial scales. Here, we used a biophysical model to evaluate connectivity between MPAs in the Mediterranean Sea, a region of extremely rich biodiversity that is currently protected by a system of approximately a hundred MPAs. The model was parameterized according to the dispersal capacity of the dusky grouper Epinephelus marginatus, an archetypal conservation-dependent species, with high economic importance and emblematic in the Mediterranean. Using various connectivity metrics and graph theory, we showed that Mediterranean MPAs are far from constituting a true, well-connected network. On average, each MPA was directly connected to four others and MPAs were clustered into several groups. Two MPAs (one in the Balearic Islands and one in Sardinia) emerged as crucial nodes for ensuring multi-generational connectivity. The high heterogeneity of MPA distribution, with low density in the South-Eastern Mediterranean, coupled with a mean dispersal distance of 120 km, leaves about 20% of the continental shelf without any larval supply. This low connectivity, here demonstrated for a major Mediterranean species, poses new challenges for the creation of a future Mediterranean network of well-connected MPAs providing recruitment to the whole continental shelf. This issue is even more critical given that the expected reduction of pelagic larval duration following sea temperature rise will likely decrease connectivity even more. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]