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We evaluate the changes on the hydrological (temperature and salinity) and biogeochemical (phytoplankton biomass) characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea induced by freshwater flow modifications under two different scenarios for the end of the 21st century. An ensemble of four regional climate model realizations using different global circulation models at the boundary and different emission scenarios are used to force a single ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea. Freshwater flow is modified according to the simulated changes in the precipitation rates for the different rivers’ catchment regions. To isolate the effect resulting from a change in freshwater flow, model results are evaluated against a ‘baseline’ simulation realized assuming a constant inflow equivalent to climatologic values. Our model results indicate that sea surface salinity could be significantly altered by freshwater flow modification in specific regions and that the affected area and the sign of the anomaly are highly dependent on the used climate model and emission scenario. Sea surface temperature and phytoplankton biomass, on the contrary, show no coherent spatial pattern but a rather widespread scattered response. We found in open-water regions a significant negative relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and phytoplankton biomass anomalies. This indicates that freshwater flow modification could alter the vertical stability of the water column throughout the Mediterranean Sea, by changing the strength of vertical mixing and consequently upper water fertilization. In coastal regions, however, the correlation between sea temperature anomalies and phytoplankton biomass is positive, indicating a larger importance of the physiological control of growth rates by temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A three dimensional biophysical model was employed to illustrate the biological impacts of a meandering frontal jet, in terms of efficiency and persistency of the autotrophic frontal production, in marginal and semi-enclosed seas. We used the Alboran Sea of the Western Mediterranean as a case study. Here, a frontal jet with a width of 15–20 km, characterized by the relatively low density Atlantic water mass, flows eastward within the upper 100 m as a marked meandering current around the western and the eastern anticyclonic gyres prior to its attachment to the North African shelf/slope topography of the Algerian basin. Its inherent nonlinearity leads to the development of a strong ageostrophic cross-frontal circulation that supplies nutrients into the nutrient-starved euphotic layer and stimulates phytoplankton growth along the jet. Biological production is larger in the western part of the basin and decreases eastwards with the gradual weakening of the jet. The higher production at the subsurface levels suggests that the Alboran Sea is likely more productive than predicted by the satellite chlorophyll data. The Mediterranean water mass away from the jet and the interiors of the western and eastern anticyclonic gyres remain unproductive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global surface temperature has been increasing since the beginning of the 20th century but with a highly variable warming rate, and the alternation of rapid warming periods with ‘hiatus’ decades is a constant throughout the series. The superimposition of a secular warming trend with natural multidecadal variability is the most accepted explanation for such a pattern. Since the start of the 21st century, the surface global mean temperature has not risen at the same rate as the top-of-atmosphere radiative energy input or greenhouse gas emissions, provoking scientific and social interest in determining the causes of this apparent discrepancy. Multidecadal natural variability is the most commonly proposed cause for the present hiatus period. Here, we analyze the HadCRUT4 surface temperature database with spectral techniques to separate a multidecadal oscillation (MDV) from a secular trend (ST). Both signals combined account for nearly 88% of the total variability of the temperature series showing the main acceleration/deceleration periods already described elsewhere. Three stalling periods with very little warming could be found within the series, from 1878 to 1907, from 1945 to 1969 and from 2001 to the end of the series, all of them coincided with a cooling phase of the MDV. Henceforth, MDV seems to be the main cause of the different hiatus periods shown by the global surface temperature records. However, and contrary to the two previous events, during the current hiatus period, the ST shows a strong fluctuation on the warming rate, with a large acceleration (0.0085°C year−1 to 0.017°C year−1) during 1992–2001 and a sharp deceleration (0.017°C year−1 to 0.003°C year−1) from 2002 onwards. This is the first time in the observational record that the ST shows such variability, so determining the causes and consequences of this change of behavior needs to be addressed by the scientific community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]