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Eight years of excavation work by the Olduvai Geochronology and Archaeology Project (OGAP) has produced a rich vertebrate fauna from several sites within Bed II, Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania. Study of these as well as recently re-organized collections from Mary Leakey's 1972 HWK EE excavations here provides a synthetic view of the faunal community of Olduvai during Middle Bed II at ∼1.7-1.4 Ma, an interval that captures the local transition from Oldowan to Acheulean technology. We expand the faunal list for this interval, name a new bovid species, clarify the evolution of several mammalian lineages, and record new local first and last appearances. Compositions of the fish and large mammal assemblages support previous indications for the dominance of open and seasonal grassland habitats at the margins of an alkaline lake. Fish diversity is low and dominated by cichlids, which indicates strongly saline conditions. The taphonomy of the fish assemblages supports reconstructions of fluctuating lake levels with mass die-offs in evaporating pools. The mammals are dominated by grazing bovids and equids. Habitats remained consistently dry and open throughout the entire Bed II sequence, with no major turnover or paleoecological changes taking place. Rather, wooded and wet habitats had already given way to drier and more open habitats by the top of Bed I, at 1.85-1.80 Ma. This ecological change is close to the age of the Oldowan-Acheulean transition in Kenya and Ethiopia, but precedes the local transition in Middle Bed II. The Middle Bed II large mammal community is much richer in species and includes a much larger number of large-bodied species (>300 kg) than the modern Serengeti. This reflects the severity of Pleistocene extinctions on African large mammals, with the loss of large species fitting a pattern typical of defaunation or 'downsizing' by human disturbance. However, trophic network (food web) analyses show that the Middle Bed II community was robust, and comparisons with the Serengeti community indicate that the fundamental structure of food webs remained intact despite Pleistocene extinctions. The presence of a generalized meat-eating hominin in the Middle Bed II community would have increased competition among carnivores and vulnerability among herbivores, but the high generality and interconnectedness of the Middle Bed II food web suggests this community was buffered against extinctions caused by trophic interactions., (Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Despite much interest in the ecology and origins of the extensive grassland ecosystems of the modern world, the biogeographic relationships of savannah palaeobiomes of Africa, India and mainland Eurasia have remained unclear. Here we assemble the most recent data from the Neogene mammal fossil record in order to map the biogeographic development of Old World mammalian faunas in relation to palaeoenvironmental conditions. Using genus-level faunal similarity and mean ordinated hypsodonty in combination with palaeoclimate modelling, we show that savannah faunas developed as a spatially and temporally connected entity that we term the Old World savannah palaeobiome. The Old World savannah palaeobiome flourished under the influence of middle and late Miocene global cooling and aridification, which resulted in the spread of open habitats across vast continental areas. This extensive biome fragmented into Eurasian and African branches due to increased aridification in North Africa and Arabia during the late Miocene. Its Eurasian branches had mostly disappeared by the end of the Miocene, but the African branch survived and eventually contributed to the development of Plio-Pleistocene African savannah faunas, including their early hominins. The modern African savannah fauna is thus a continuation of the extensive Old World savannah palaeobiome.

Although ecometric methods have been used to analyse fossil mammal faunas and environments of Eurasia and North America, such methods have not yet been applied to the rich fossil mammal record of eastern Africa. Here we report results from analysis of a combined dataset spanning east and west Turkana from Kenya between 7 and 1 million years ago (Ma). We provide temporally and spatially resolved estimates of temperature and precipitation and discuss their relationship to patterns of faunal change, and propose a new hypothesis to explain the lack of a temperature trend. We suggest that the regionally arid Turkana Basin may between 4 and 2 Ma have acted as a 'species factory', generating ecological adaptations in advance of the global trend. We show a persistent difference between the eastern and western sides of the Turkana Basin and suggest that the wetlands of the shallow eastern side could have provided additional humidity to the terrestrial ecosystems. Pending further research, a transient episode of faunal change centred at the time of the KBS Member (1.87-1.53 Ma), may be equally plausibly attributed to climate change or to a top-down ecological cascade initiated by the entry of technologically sophisticated humans.This article is part of the themed issue 'Major transitions in human evolution'., (© 2016 The Authors.)

The path of species diversification is commonly observed by inspecting the fossil record. Yet, how species diversity changes at geological timescales relate to lower-level processes remains poorly understood. Here we use mathematical models of spatially structured populations to show that natural selection and gradual environmental change give rise to discontinuous phenotype changes that can be connected to speciation and extinction at the macroevolutionary level. In our model, new phenotypes arise in the middle of the environmental gradient, while newly appearing environments are filled by existing phenotypes shifting their adaptive optima. Slow environmental change leads to loss of phenotypes in the middle of the extant environmental range, whereas fast change causes extinction at one extreme of the environmental range. We compared our model predictions against a well-known yet partially unexplained pattern of intense hoofed mammal diversification associated with grassland expansion during the Late Miocene. We additionally used the model outcomes to cast new insight into Cope's law of the unspecialized. Our general finding is that the rate of environmental change determines where generation and loss of diversity occur in the phenotypic and physical spaces.

There is accumulating evidence that macroevolutionary patterns of mammal evolution during the Cenozoic follow similar trajectories on different continents. This would suggest that such patterns are strongly determined by global abiotic factors, such as climate, or by basic eco-evolutionary processes such as filling of niches by specialization. The similarity of pattern would be expected to extend to the history of individual clades. Here, we investigate the temporal distribution of maximum size observed within individual orders globally and on separate continents. While the maximum size of individual orders of large land mammals show differences and comprise several families, the times at which orders reach their maximum size over time show strong congruence, peaking in the Middle Eocene, the Oligocene and the Plio-Pleistocene. The Eocene peak occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are high and is best explained as a result of niche expansion rather than abiotic forcing. Since the Eocene, there is a significant correlation between maximum size frequency and global temperature proxy. The Oligocene peak is not statistically significant and may in part be due to sampling issues. The peak in the Plio-Pleistocene occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are low, it is statistically the most robust one and it is best explained by global cooling. We conclude that the macroevolutionary patterns observed are a result of the interplay between eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing.

The evolution of a particular sensory organ is often discussed with no consideration of the roles played by other senses. Here, we treat mammalian vision, olfaction and hearing as an interconnected whole, a three-dimensional sensory space, evolving in response to ecological challenges. Until now, there has been no quantitative method for estimating how much a particular animal invests in its different senses. We propose an anatomical measure based on sensory organ sizes. Dimensions of functional importance are defined and measured, and normalized in relation to animal mass. For 119 taxonomically and ecologically diverse species, we can define the position of the species in a three-dimensional sensory space. Thus, we can ask questions related to possible trade-off vs. co-operation among senses. More generally, our method allows morphologists to identify sensory organ combinations that are characteristic of particular ecological niches. After normalization for animal size, we note that arboreal mammals tend to have larger eyes and smaller noses than terrestrial mammals. On the other hand, we observe a strong correlation between eyes and ears, indicating that co-operation between vision and hearing is a general mammalian feature. For some groups of mammals we note a correlation, and possible co-operation between olfaction and whiskers.

We have recently shown that rainfall, one of the main climatic determinants of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), can be robustly estimated from mean molar tooth crown height (hypsodonty) of mammalian herbivores. Here, we show that another functional trait of herbivore molar surfaces, longitudinal loph count, can be similarly used to extract reasonable estimates of rainfall but also of temperature, the other main climatic determinant of terrestrial NPP. Together, molar height and the number of longitudinal lophs explain 73 per cent of the global variation in terrestrial NPP today and resolve the main terrestrial biomes in bivariate space. We explain the functional interpretation of the relationships between dental function and climate variables in terms of long- and short-term demands. We also show how the spatially and temporally dense fossil record of terrestrial mammals can be used to investigate the relationship between biodiversity and productivity under changing climates in geological time. The placement of the fossil chronofaunas in biome space suggests that they most probably represent multiple palaeobiomes, at least some of which do not correspond directly to any biomes of today's world.

The Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction approximately 66 million years ago is conventionally thought to have been a turning point in mammalian evolution. Prior to that event and for the first two-thirds of their evolutionary history, mammals were mostly confined to roles as generalized, small-bodied, nocturnal insectivores, presumably under selection pressures from dinosaurs. Release from these pressures, by extinction of non-avian dinosaurs at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, triggered ecological diversification of mammals. Although recent individual fossil discoveries have shown that some mammalian lineages diversified ecologically during the Mesozoic era, comprehensive ecological analyses of mammalian groups crossing the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary are lacking. Such analyses are needed because diversification analyses of living taxa allow only indirect inferences of past ecosystems. Here we show that in arguably the most evolutionarily successful clade of Mesozoic mammals, the Multituberculata, an adaptive radiation began at least 20 million years before the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs and continued across the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Disparity in dental complexity, which relates to the range of diets, rose sharply in step with generic richness and disparity in body size. Moreover, maximum dental complexity and body size demonstrate an adaptive shift towards increased herbivory. This dietary expansion tracked the ecological rise of angiosperms and suggests that the resources that were available to multituberculates were relatively unaffected by the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction. Taken together, our results indicate that mammals were able to take advantage of new ecological opportunities in the Mesozoic and that at least some of these opportunities persisted through the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction. Similar broad-scale ecomorphological inventories of other radiations may help to constrain the possible causes of mass extinctions.

How fast can a mammal evolve from the size of a mouse to the size of an elephant? Achieving such a large transformation calls for major biological reorganization. Thus, the speed at which this occurs has important implications for extensive faunal changes, including adaptive radiations and recovery from mass extinctions. To quantify the pace of large-scale evolution we developed a metric, clade maximum rate, which represents the maximum evolutionary rate of a trait within a clade. We applied this metric to body mass evolution in mammals over the last 70 million years, during which multiple large evolutionary transitions occurred in oceans and on continents and islands. Our computations suggest that it took a minimum of 1.6, 5.1, and 10 million generations for terrestrial mammal mass to increase 100-, and 1,000-, and 5,000-fold, respectively. Values for whales were down to half the length (i.e., 1.1, 3, and 5 million generations), perhaps due to the reduced mechanical constraints of living in an aquatic environment. When differences in generation time are considered, we find an exponential increase in maximum mammal body mass during the 35 million years following the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) extinction event. Our results also indicate a basic asymmetry in macroevolution: very large decreases (such as extreme insular dwarfism) can happen at more than 10 times the rate of increases. Our findings allow more rigorous comparisons of microevolutionary and macroevolutionary patterns and processes.

Ice Age megafauna have long been known to be associated with global cooling during the Pleistocene, and their adaptations to cold environments, such as large body size, long hair, and snow-sweeping structures, are best exemplified by the woolly mammoths and woolly rhinos. These traits were assumed to have evolved as a response to the ice sheet expansion. We report a new Pliocene mammal assemblage from a high-altitude basin in the western Himalayas, including a primitive woolly rhino. These new Tibetan fossils suggest that some megaherbivores first evolved in Tibet before the beginning of the Ice Age. The cold winters in high Tibet served as a habituation ground for the megaherbivores, which became preadapted for the Ice Age, successfully expanding to the Eurasian mammoth steppe.

The extinction of dinosaurs at the Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary was the seminal event that opened the door for the subsequent diversification of terrestrial mammals. Our compilation of maximum body size at the ordinal level by sub-epoch shows a near-exponential increase after the K/Pg. On each continent, the maximum size of mammals leveled off after 40 million years ago and thereafter remained approximately constant. There was remarkable congruence in the rate, trajectory, and upper limit across continents, orders, and trophic guilds, despite differences in geological and climatic history, turnover of lineages, and ecological variation. Our analysis suggests that although the primary driver for the evolution of giant mammals was diversification to fill ecological niches, environmental temperature and land area may have ultimately constrained the maximum size achieved.

An ever larger proportion of Earth's biota is affected by the current accelerating environmental change. The mismatches between organisms and their environments are now increasing in both magnitude and frequency, resulting in lowered fitness and hence the decline of populations. Under this scenario, species with behavioral and/or physiological traits that provide them shelter from the environment are predicted to be less vulnerable to population declines than species that are always exposed to the elements. Here, we coded 4,536 living mammal species for sleep-or-hide (SLOH) behavior, including hibernation, torpor, and the use of burrows, among other related traits. We demonstrate that species that exhibit SLOH behavior are underrepresented in high-risk International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List categories. We found that SLOH behavior contributes to lowering extinction risk even after we accounted for other factors that directly or indirectly buffer species against extinction, such as larger geographic ranges and smaller body sizes. This result is robust to analyses using phylogenetically independent contrasts. Sleep-or-hide behavior, made possible by a related suite of physiological adaptations, allows mammals to function at lower metabolic rates and/or buffer them from changing physical elements. Mammals with SLOH behavior have a greater propensity to survive in the current extinction crisis and probably also in past crises because of reduced exposure to environmental stress.

Do large mammals evolve faster than small mammals or vice versa? Because the answer to this question contributes to our understanding of how life-history affects long-term and large-scale evolutionary patterns, and how microevolutionary rates scale-up to macroevolutionary rates, it has received much attention. A satisfactory or consistent answer to this question is lacking, however. Here, we take a fresh look at this problem using a large fossil dataset of mammals from the Neogene of the Old World (NOW). Controlling for sampling biases, calculating per capita origination and extinction rates of boundary-crossers and estimating survival probabilities using capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods, we found the recurring pattern that large mammal genera and species have higher origination and extinction rates, and therefore shorter durations. This pattern is surprising in the light of molecular studies, which show that smaller animals, with their shorter generation times and higher metabolic rates, have greater absolute rates of evolution. However, higher molecular rates do not necessarily translate to higher taxon rates because both the biotic and physical environments interact with phenotypic variation, in part fueled by mutations, to affect origination and extinction rates. To explain the observed pattern, we propose that the ability to evolve and maintain behavior such as hibernation, torpor and burrowing, collectively termed "sleep-or-hide" (SLOH) behavior, serves as a means of environmental buffering during expected and unexpected environmental change. SLOH behavior is more common in some small mammals, and, as a result, SLOH small mammals contribute to higher average survivorship and lower origination probabilities among small mammals.

The relation between size and performance is central for understanding the evolution of sensory systems, and much interest has been focused on mammalian eyes and ears. However, we know very little about olfactory organ size (OOS), as data for a representative set of mammals are lacking. Here, we present a cranial endocast method for estimating OOS by measuring an easily accessible part of the system, the perforated part of the ethmoid bone, through which the primary olfactory axons reach the olfactory bulb. In 16 species, for which relevant data are available, the area of the perforated ethmoid bone is directly proportional to the area of the olfactory epithelium. Thus, the ethmoid bone is a useful indicator enabling us to analyse 150 species, and describe the distribution of OOS within the class Mammalia. In the future, a method using skull material may be applied to fossil skulls. In relation to skull size, humans, apes and monkeys have small olfactory organs, while prosimians have OOSs typical for mammals of their size. Large ungulates have impressive olfactory organs. Relating anatomy to published thresholds, we find that sensitivity increases with increasing absolute organ size.

Commonness of organisms typically fluctuates through time, and understanding such fluctuations has long been an important part of ecological research. Studies at paleontological timescales provide a perspective on how changes in population size might affect community structure over millions of years. To overcome the obstacle that population size parameters such as abundance are difficult to detect in the fossil record, we here used fossil locality coverage to approximate changes in site occupancy in the Neogene of Europe over the course of 20 million years. Our aim was to examine whether the trophic structure of mammalian communities is maintained through time despite continuing environmental change. Ecomorphological grouping of fossils indicates that herbivore genera have low taxon resilience in that each genus has predominantly only one locality coverage peak before disappearance. Despite this continuous replacement of the most prevalent herbivore genera, the herbivore trophic group as a whole remains the largest and maintains a roughly constant share of locality coverage throughout the Neogene. The successive herbivore genera, however, show increasing adaptations to harshening environments, indicating shifting properties of niches while the overall trophic structure is conserved. Carnivores, dependent on primary productivity for food indirectly through their prey, show moderate lack of resilience. In contrast, in omnivores changes in locality coverage are close to random fluctuations.

During the past 20 million years, herbivorous mammals of numerous lineages have evolved hypsodont, or high-crowned, cheek teeth. Hypsodonty is informative ecologically because it is well developed in mammals eating fibrous and abrasive foods that are most abundant in open and generally or seasonally dry environments. Here we report that in the Neogene of Europe mammals with the greatest locality coverages showed an increase in hypsodonty. We used a data set of 209 localities to measure whether large mammals occurring in many fossil localities show a similar increase in hypsodonty to mammals occurring in single or few localities. Taxonomic and morphological groupings show a low average hypsodonty in the early Miocene epoch. From the middle Miocene onwards, only the hypsodonty of commonly found mammals shows a marked increase. Therefore, in the drying Europe of the late Miocene, only increasingly hypsodont mammals may have been able to expand their share of habitats and food resources. These results suggest that the relatively small number of species known from multiple localities are palaeoecologically informative by themselves, irrespective of the rest of the known species.

There is accumulating evidence that macroevolutionary patterns of mammal evolution during the Cenozoic follow similar trajectories on different continents. This would suggest that such patterns are strongly determined by global abiotic factors, such as climate, or by basic eco-evolutionary processes such as filling of niches by specialization. The similarity of pattern would be expected to extend to the history of individual clades. Here, we investigate the temporal distribution of maximum size observed within individual orders globally and on separate continents. While the maximum size of individual orders of large land mammals show differences and comprise several families, the times at which orders reach their maximum size over time show strong congruence, peaking in the Middle Eocene, the Oligocene and the Plio-Pleistocene. The Eocene peak occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are high and is best explained as a result of niche expansion rather than abiotic forcing. Since the Eocene, there is a significant correlation between maximum size frequency and global temperature proxy. The Oligocene peak is not statistically significant and may in part be due to sampling issues. The peak in the Plio-Pleistocene occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are low, it is statistically the most robust one and it is best explained by global cooling. We conclude that the macroevolutionary patterns observed are a result of the interplay between eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing.

Body size affects nearly all aspects of organismal biology, so it is important to understand the constraints and dynamics of body size evolution. Despite empirical work on the macroevolution and macroecology of minimum and maximum size, there is little general quantitative theory on rates and limits of body size evolution. We present a general theory that integrates individual productivity, the lifestyle component of the slow-fast life-history continuum, and the allometric scaling of generation time to predict a clades evolutionary rate and asymptotic maximum body size, and the shape of macroevolutionary trajectories during diversifying phases of size evolution. We evaluate this theory using data on the evolution of clade maximum body sizes in mammals during the Cenozoic. As predicted, clade evolutionary rates and asymptotic maximum sizes are larger in more productive clades (e.g. baleen whales), which represent the fast end of the slow-fast lifestyle continuum, and smaller in less productive clades (e.g. primates). The allometric scaling exponent for generation time fundamentally alters the shape of evolutionary trajectories, so allometric effects should be accounted for in models of phenotypic evolution and interpretations of macroevolutionary body size patterns. This work highlights the intimate interplay between the macroecological and macroevolutionary dynamics underlying the generation and maintenance of morphological diversity.

A species factory refers to the source that gives rise to an exceptionally large number of species. However, what is it exactly: a place, a time or a combination of places, times and environmental conditions, remains unclear. Here we search for species factories computationally, for which we develop statistical approaches to detect origination, extinction and sorting hotspots in space and time in the fossil record. Using data on European Late Cenozoic mammals, we analyse where, how and how often species factories occur, and how they potentially relate to the dynamics of environmental conditions. We find that in the Early Miocene origination hotspots tend to be located in areas with relatively low estimated net primary productivity. Our pilot study shows that species first occurring in origination hotspots tend to have a longer average longevity and a larger geographical range than other species, thus emphasizing the evolutionary importance of the species factories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How food intake and mastication scale to satisfy the metabolic needs of mammals has been the subject of considerable scientific debate. Existing theory suggests that the negative allometric scaling of metabolic rate with body mass is compensated by a matching allometric scaling of the chewing rate. Why empirical studies have found that the scaling coefficients of the chewing rate seem to be systematically smaller than expected from theory remains unknown. Here we explain this imparity by decoupling the functional surface area of teeth from overall surface area. The functional surface area is relatively reduced in forms emphasizing linear edges (e.g., lophodont) compared with forms lacking linear structures (e.g., bunodont). In forms with reduced relative functional surface, the deficit in food processed per chew appears to be compensated for by increased chewing rate, such that the metabolic requirements are met. This compensation accounts for the apparent difference between theoretically predicted and observed scaling of chewing rates. We suggest that this reflects adaptive functional evolution to plant foods with different fracture properties and extend the theory to incorporate differences in functional morphology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have recently shown that rainfall, one of the main climatic determinants of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), can be robustly estimated from mean molar tooth crown height (hypsodonty) of mammalian herbivores. Here, we show that another functional trait of herbivore molar surfaces, longitudinal loph count, can be similarly used to extract reasonable estimates of rainfall but also of temperature, the other main climatic determinant of terrestrial NPP. Together, molar height and the number of longitudinal lophs explain 73 per cent of the global variation in terrestrial NPP today and resolve the main terrestrial biomes in bivariate space. We explain the functional interpretation of the relationships between dental function and climate variables in terms of long- and short-term demands. We also show how the spatially and temporally dense fossil record of terrestrial mammals can be used to investigate the relationship between biodiversity and productivity under changing climates in geological time. The placement of the fossil chronofaunas in biome space suggests that they most probably represent multiple palaeobiomes, at least some of which do not correspond directly to any biomes of today's world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ever larger proportion of Earth's biota is affected by the current accelerating environmental change. The mismatches between organisms and their environments are now increasing in both magnitude and frequency, resulting in lowered fitness and hence the decline of populations. Under this scenario, species with behavioral and/or physiological traits that provide them shelter from the environment are predicted to be less vulnerable to population declines than species that are always exposed to the elements. Here, we coded 4,536 living mammal species for sleep-or-hide (SLOH) behavior, including hibernation, torpor, and the use of burrows, among other related traits. We demonstrate that species that exhibit SLOH behavior are underrepresented in high-risk International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List categories. We found that SLOH behavior contributes to lowering extinction risk even after we accounted for other factors that directly or indirectly buffer species against extinction, such as larger geographic ranges and smaller body sizes. This result is robust to analyses using phylogenetically independent contrasts. Sleep-or-hide behavior, made possible by a related suite of physiological adaptations, allows mammals to function at lower metabolic rates and/or buffer them from changing physical elements. Mammals with SLOH behavior have a greater propensity to survive in the current extinction crisis and probably also in past crises because of reduced exposure to environmental stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do large mammals evolve faster than small mammals or vice versa? Because the answer to this question contributes to our understanding of how life-history affects long-term and large-scale evolutionary patterns, and how microevolutionary rates scale-up to macroevolutionary rates, it has received much attention. A satisfactory or consistent answer to this question is lacking, however. Here, we take a fresh look at this problem using a large fossil dataset of mammals from the Neogene of the Old World (NOW). Controlling for sampling biases, calculating per capita origination and extinction rates of boundary-crossers and estimating survival probabilities using capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods, we found the recurring pattern that large mammal genera and species have higher origination and extinction rates, and therefore shorter durations. This pattern is surprising in the light of molecular studies, which show that smaller animals, with their shorter generation times and higher metabolic rates, have greater absolute rates of evolution. However, higher molecular rates do not necessarily translate to higher taxon rates because both the biotic and physical environments interact with phenotypic variation, in part fueled by mutations, to affect origination and extinction rates. To explain the observed pattern, we propose that the ability to evolve and maintain behavior such as hibernation, torpor and burrowing, collectively termed "sleep-or- hide" (SLOH) behavior, serves as a means of environmental buffering during expected and unexpected environmental change. SLOH behavior is more common in some small mammals, and, as a result, SLOH small mammals contribute to higher average survivorship and lower origination probabilities among small mammals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The fossil teeth of land mammals offer a powerful tool to map the regional details of past climate change in the terrestrial realm. We use mean plant-eater hypsodonty (molar crown height) of late Neogene mammal localities to map late Miocene and Pliocene palaeoprecipitation on the Eurasian continent and, with higher temporal resolution, in Europe. The results show that the mid-latitude drying in Eurasia affected the central parts of the continent first and that the drying of western Europe after about 7–8 Ma seems to have coincided roughly in time with a return to more humid conditions in eastern Asia, with a return to a drier east and more humid west in the Pliocene. Within Europe, the hypsodonty-based palaeoprecipitation maps suggest that the sequence from MN 9 to MN 12 (ca. 11.1–6.8 Ma) was dominated by an east–west (continental-marine) humidity gradient, which gradually intensified and with a shift of dryer conditions eastwards in MN 12 (ca. 7.5 Ma). This was partly overlain from MN 13 onwards by a north–south oriented gradient, which persisted at least to the end of the Pliocene. The maps for both the earliest late Miocene (MN 9, ca. 11.1–9.7 Ma) and the earliest Pliocene (MN 14, ca. 4.9–4.2 Ma) show very low regional differentiation, possibly suggesting perturbed phases in the evolution of the mammal communities. Analysis of hypsodonty and dietary structure of the mammalian plant-eater community in Europe during the entire interval shows that the Miocene–Pliocene boundary was marked by a strong decrease in mesodont species and mixed feeders, and an increase in brachydont species and omnivores. In this view, the shift in the latest Miocene from east–west to partly north–south-polarised hypsodonty patterns corresponds mainly to an increase in hypsodont species and grazers. It seems probable that the east–west gradient was primarily driven by precipitation, while the north–south gradient would also have been strongly influenced by temperature-related effects of humidity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Given a collection of fossil sites with data about the taxa that occur in each site, the task in biochronology is to find good estimates for the ages or ordering of sites. We describe a full probabilistic model for fossil data. The parameters of the model are natural: the ordering of the sites, the origination and extinction times for each taxon, and the probabilities of different types of errors. We show that the posterior distributions of these parameters can be estimated reliably by using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The posterior distributions of the model parameters can be used to answer many different questions about the data, including seriation (finding the best ordering of the sites) and outlier detection. We demonstrate the usefulness of the model and estimation method on synthetic data and on real data on large late Cenozoic mammals. As an example, for the sites with large number of occurrences of common genera, our methods give orderings, whose correlation with geochronologic ages is 0.95. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]