Lauren E. Cain, Dominique Costagliola, Valdilea G. Veloso, Heiner C. Bucher, Janet P. Tate, James M. Robins, Rémonie Seng, Daniel R. Drozd, Matthias Egger, Ellen C. Caniglia, George R. Seage, José M. Miró, Michael J. Mugavero, Kholoud Porter, Sophie Abgrall, Andrew N. Phillips, Jonathan A C Sterne, Michael S. Saag, Sonia Napravnik, William C. Mathews, Steven G. Deeks, Hansjakob Furrer, Peter Reiss, Giota Touloumi, Roger Logan, John Gill, Roberto Muga, Elena Ferrer, Heidi M. Crane, Laurence Meyer, François Dabis, Amy C. Justice, Joseph J. Eron, Stephen L. Boswell, Santiago Moreno, Ard van Sighem, Fabrice Bonnet, Sophie Jose, Caroline A. Sabin, Richard D. Moore, Sonia Hernandez-Diaz, Antonio G. Pacheco, Julia del Amo, Miguel A. Hernán, AII - Infectious diseases, APH - Aging & Later Life, Global Health, Amsterdam institute for Infection and Immunity, Gestionnaire, Hal Sorbonne Université, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, University College of London [London] (UCL), Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (iPLESP), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Service de médecine interne, immunologie clinique [Béclère], Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-AP-HP - Hôpital Antoine Béclère [Clamart], Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP), University of Alabama at Birmingham [ Birmingham] (UAB), Centre de recherche en épidémiologie et santé des populations (CESP), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Hôpital Paul Brousse-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris-Saclay, University of Washington [Seattle], Institut de Santé Publique, d'Epidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED), Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2, CHU Bordeaux [Bordeaux], Bordeaux population health (BPH), Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Johns Hopkins University (JHU), Amsterdam UMC - Amsterdam University Medical Center, Stichting HIV Monitoring [Amsterdam], Universiteit van Amsterdam (UvA), Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Institute of Health Carlos III, Instituto Ramon y Cajal de Investigacion Sanitaria [Madrid, Spain] (IRYCIS), Universidad de Alcalá - University of Alcalá (UAH), Institut d’Investigació Germans Trias i Pujol = Germans Trias i Pujol Research Institute (IGTP), Fenway Health Institute, Boston, MA, USA., Hospitalet de Llobregat, University of North Carolina [Chapel Hill] (UNC), University of North Carolina System (UNC), Yale School of Medicine [New Haven, Connecticut] (YSM), VA Connecticut Healthcare System, University of Calgary, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP), University Hospital Basel [Basel], University of Cape Town, University of Bern, Bern University Hospital [Berne] (Inselspital), University of Athens Medical School [Athens], Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Universitat de Barcelona (UB), School of Social and Community Medicine [Bristol], and University of Bristol [Bristol]
Summary Background Clinical guidelines vary with respect to the optimal monitoring frequency of HIV-positive individuals. We compared dynamic monitoring strategies based on time-varying CD4 cell counts in virologically suppressed HIV-positive individuals. Methods In this observational study, we used data from prospective studies of HIV-positive individuals in Europe (France, Greece, the Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK) and North and South America (Brazil, Canada, and the USA) in The HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and The Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. We compared three monitoring strategies that differ in the threshold used to measure CD4 cell count and HIV RNA viral load every 3–6 months (when below the threshold) or every 9–12 months (when above the threshold). The strategies were defined by the threshold CD4 counts of 200 cells per μL, 350 cells per μL, and 500 cells per μL. Using inverse probability weighting to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of death and of AIDS-defining illness or death, risk ratios of virological failure, and mean differences in CD4 cell count. Findings 47 635 individuals initiated an antiretroviral therapy regimen between Jan 1, 2000, and Jan 9, 2015, and met the eligibility criteria for inclusion in our study. During follow-up, CD4 cell count was measured on average every 4·0 months and viral load every 3·8 months. 464 individuals died (107 in threshold 200 strategy, 157 in threshold 350, and 200 in threshold 500) and 1091 had AIDS-defining illnesses or died (267 in threshold 200 strategy, 365 in threshold 350, and 459 in threshold 500). Compared with threshold 500, the mortality HR was 1·05 (95% CI 0·86–1·29) for threshold 200 and 1·02 (0·91·1·14) for threshold 350. Corresponding estimates for death or AIDS-defining illness were 1·08 (0·95–1·22) for threshold 200 and 1·03 (0·96–1·12) for threshold 350. Compared with threshold 500, the 24 month risk ratios of virological failure (viral load more than 200 copies per mL) were 2·01 (1·17–3·43) for threshold 200 and 1·24 (0·89–1·73) for threshold 350, and 24 month mean CD4 cell count differences were 0·4 (−25·5 to 26·3) cells per μL for threshold 200 and −3·5 (−16·0 to 8·9) cells per μL for threshold 350. Interpretation Decreasing monitoring to annually when CD4 count is higher than 200 cells per μL compared with higher than 500 cells per μL does not worsen the short-term clinical and immunological outcomes of virally suppressed HIV-positive individuals. However, more frequent virological monitoring might be necessary to reduce the risk of virological failure. Further follow-up studies are needed to establish the long-term safety of these strategies. Funding National Institutes of Health.