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Aims: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy(HCM)is a leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young adults. Current risk algorithms provide only a crude estimate of risk and fail to account for the different effect size of individual risk factors. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new SCD risk prediction model that provides individualized risk estimates. Methods and results: The prognostic model was derived from a retrospective, multi-centre longitudinal cohort study. The model was developed fromthe entire data set using theCox proportional hazards model and internally validated using bootstrapping. The cohort consisted of 3675 consecutive patients from six centres. During a follow-up period of 24 313 patient-years (median 5.7 years), 198 patients (5%) died suddenly or had an appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shock. Of eight pre-specified predictors, age, maximal left ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, left ventricular outflow tract gradient, family history of SCD, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and unexplained syncope were associated with SCD/appropriate ICD shock at the 15% significance level. These predictors were included in the final model to estimate individual probabilities of SCD at 5 years. The calibration slope was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.08), C-index was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.72), and D-statistic was 1.07 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.32). For every 16 ICDs implanted in patients with ≥4% 5-year SCD risk, potentially 1 patient will be saved from SCD at 5 years. A second model with the data set split into independent development and validation cohorts had very similar estimates of coefficients and performance when externally validated. Conclusion: This is the first validatedSCDrisk prediction model for patients withHCMand provides accurate individualized estimates for the probability of SCD using readily collected clinical parameters. ©The Author 2013.

BACKGROUND: More evidence is needed to assess the pros and cons of maintaining age-limit policies in heart transplantation (HT). METHODS: We analyzed clinical data from a heart failure management unit to investigate the impact of age on prognosis of two distinct cohorts: (i) 309 patients (median age, 57 yr; 62% male) with severe chronic heart failure (CHF) consecutively screened for HT; (ii) 336 HT recipients (median age 56 yr, 82% male). RESULTS: In CHF patients (screened for HT), prognosis was conditioned by the underlying severity of cardiac disease (i.e., New York Heart Association class III-IV, decreasing blood pressure, presence of atrial fibrillation and severe mitral regurgitation), whereas increasing age showed no sign of predicting all-cause or cardiovascular mortality (both p > or = 0.4). In HT recipients, age did not retain significance at multivariate analysis as an independent predictor (p > or = 0.14 for both all-cause and cardiovascular death), whereas ischemic etiology of pre-existing CHF did (p < or = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Age did not appear to be a primary determinant of all-cause or cardiovascular mortality among potential HT candidates or eventual recipients (ischemic etiology of CHF turned out to be the major determinant of post-transplant outcome). These results support the concept that HT may be considered a treatment option in patients with more advanced age strata, particularly when affected by non-ischemic cardiomyopathy.

Although statins have proven efficacy in lowering lipids and improving survival in heart transplantation (HT) recipients, potential drug interactions may limit efficacy and reduce tolerability. This observational study explored the efficacy and tolerability of ezetimibe (10 mg/day) combined with simvastatin (10 or 20 mg/day) prescribed to HT recipients with intolerance to statins ( n = 11) or inadequate lipid control despite high-dose statins ( n = 14). Substantial reductions in lipid levels were apparent after 2 months (total cholesterol, −22%; low-density lipoproteins, −28%; triglycerides, −31%) and were maintained at 6 months. Reductions were significant in both subgroups of recipients; the vast majority (12 of 14, 85%) of recipients with a history of statins intolerance were able to tolerate ezetimibe plus low-dose simvastatin. This study provides suggestive evidence that treatment with ezetimibe plus low-dose simvastatin is well tolerated by HT recipients and may be effective for treatment of dyslipidemia in HT recipients with statins intolerance or resistance.

Information on the incidence of decompensation of chronic heart failure (CHF) in heart transplantation (HT) candidates eligible for prophylactic implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) could provide insights into the influence of ICD on the timing for HT. Methods: We investigated the prevalence of candidates satisfying SCD-HeFT and MADIT-II criteria for prophylactic ICD among patients (n = 317) with CHF referred to our tertiary center for HT. In addition to standard clinical and laboratory assessments, baseline evaluation included two-dimensional standard transthoracic echocardiogram and 12-lead electrocardiogram. Results: At baseline, 19% of patients (n = 60) satisfied MADIT II criteria, and 58% (n = 185) fulfilled SCD-HeFT criteria. A total of 60% patients (n = 190) were eligible for prophylactic ICD implantation according to at least one set of criteria. Five-yr CHF decompensation-free survival was 68 ± 4% in patients eligible for prophylactic ICD (p = 0.003), (RR 2.5, 95% CI 1.35–4.63). Conclusions: SCD-HeFT could imply a threefold rise in ICD eligibility in tertiary settings. As ICD-eligible patients would likely remain at high risk of progressive ventricular dysfunction, strict follow-up should be considered extremely important to allow a timely referral for HT.

Randomized trials showed that mTOR inhibitors prevent early development of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV). However, the action of these drugs on CAV late after transplant is controversial, and their effectiveness for CAV prevention in clinical practice is poorly explored. In this observational study we included 143 consecutive heart transplant recipients who underwent serial intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), receiving either everolimus or mycophenolate as adjunctive therapy to cyclosporine. Ninety-one recipients comprised the early cohort, receiving IVUS at weeks 3-6 and year 1 after transplant, and 52 the late cohort, receiving IVUS at years 1 and 5 after transplant. Everolimus independently reduced the odds for early CAV (0.14 [0.01-0.77]; p = 0.02) but it did not appear to influence late CAV progression. High-dose statins were found to be associated with reduced CAV progression both early and late after transplant (p ≤ 0.05). Metabolic abnormalities, such as high triglycerides, were associated with late, but not with early CAV progression. By highlighting a differential effect of everolimus and metabolic abnormalities on early and late changes of graft coronary morphology, this observational study supports the hypothesis that everolimus may be effective for CAV prevention but not for CAV treatment, and that risk factors intervene in a time-dependent sequence during CAV development.

This study analyzed the relations and time-related changes in eligibility for cardiac resynchronization therapy and prophylactic defibrillator implantation in 161 potential candidates for heart transplantation. Although up to 62% of patients who fulfilled the severity criteria for heart transplantation were eligible for either device, this percentage increased as clinical/instrumental parameters of heart failure severity worsened.

Background: Cyclosporine nephrotoxicity negatively impacts long-term outcome after heart transplantation (HT). We previously reported 1-year results from a randomized study showing that cyclosporine-lowering strategies based on everolimus or mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) are equally effective for reducing progression of renal dysfunction. It is unknown whether this efficacy could be maintained over the long term. Methods: Thirty-four recipients 1 to 4 years after HT and with 25 to 60 ml/min of creatinine clearance (CrCl) were randomized to everolimus with a very low dose (C0: 50 to 90 ng/ml, n = 17) or MMF with low dose of cyclosporine (C0: 100 to 150 ng/ml, n = 17). Follow-up was prolonged up to 3 years, and calculated CrCl was the main efficacy measure. Results: Cyclosporine was maintained at 70% and 30% lower than baseline in the everolimus and MMF arms, respectively, throughout the 3-year study period. CrCl remained stable in the everolimus patients (+7% from baseline; p = 0.7), but improved in the MMF patients (+20% from baseline; p < 0.01), with a trend toward improved values compared with everolimus patients (46 ± 12 vs 56 ± 15 ml/min; p = 0.06). Subgroup analysis revealed that baseline proteinuria markedly influenced the renal function response to everolimus: whereas in patients with baseline proteinuria CrCl significantly worsened (-20%; p = 0.04), it improved in those without (+15%; p = 0.03). Safety was comparable between the two study arms. Conclusions: Cyclosporine nephrotoxicity improved after a prolonged dose reduction in patients receiving MMF. The everolimus-based strategy provided a similar benefit only to patients without baseline proteinuria. While raising caution against the universal use of everolimus for kidney protection, our long-term results support the need for customized approaches in the management of drug toxicities in maintenance HT recipients.

Background: Statins are recommended in heart transplantation regardless of lipid levels. However, it remains unknown whether dosing should be maximized or adjusted toward a pre-defined cholesterol threshold. Methods: This pilot, randomized, open-label study compares an early maximal dose of fluvastatin (80 mg/day) with a strategy based on 20 mg/day subsequently titrated to target low-density lipoproteins (LDL) 0.5 mm, with numerical prevalence in the titrated-dosing arm (3 [12.5%] vs 1 [5%]; p = 0.3). Intimal volume increased in the titrated-dosing (p < 0.01) but not in the maximal-dosing arm (p = 0.1), which accordingly showed a higher prevalence of negative remodeling (p = 0.02). Conclusions: Despite being as effective as the titrated-dosing approach in achieving LDL

Background— The prognostic significance of syncope has not been investigated systematically in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and treatment strategies have been based largely on intuition and experience. Methods and Results— We assessed the relationship between syncope and sudden death in 1511 consecutive patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Unexplained (n=153) or neurally mediated (n=52) syncope occurred in 205 patients (14%). Over a 5.6±5.2-year follow-up, 74 patients died suddenly. Relative risk of sudden death was 1.78 (95% confidence interval 0.88 to 3.51, P =0.08) in patients with unexplained syncope and 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.00 to 3.83, P =1.0) in those with neurally mediated syncope compared with patients without syncope. In multivariable analysis, the temporal proximity of unexplained syncope to initial patient evaluation was independently associated with risk of sudden death ( P =0.006). Patients with unexplained syncope within 6 months before the initial evaluation showed a 5-fold increase in risk compared with patients without syncope (adjusted hazard ratio 4.89, 95% confidence interval 2.19 to 10.94), a relationship that was maintained throughout all age groups (5 years before initial evaluation) did not show an increased risk of sudden death (adjusted hazard ratio 0.38, 95% confidence interval 0.05 to 2.74). Conclusions— In the present large cohort of patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, unexplained syncope was a risk factor for sudden death. Patients with syncopal events that occurred in close temporal proximity to the initial evaluation showed a substantially higher risk of sudden death than patients without syncope. Older patients with remote syncopal events did not show an increased risk.

Background Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection may influence the development of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV). Prophylactic or preemptive administration of anti-CMV agents effectively prevents acute CMV manifestations. However, studies comparing allograft-related outcomes between these anti-CMV approaches are lacking. Herein we report a longitudinal observational study comparing CAV development between prophylactic and preemptive approaches. Methods The 1-year change in maximal intimal thickening (MIT) assessed by intravascular ultrasound at 1 and 12 months after heart transplantation (the major surrogate for late survival) was compared in groups of patients routinely assigned to a preemptive strategy (from November 2004 to October 2005; n = 21) or receiving valganciclovir prophylaxis (from November 2005 to October 2006; n = 19). CMV infection was monitored with pp65 antigenemia. Results The 1-year increase in MIT was significantly lower in patients receiving prophylaxis compared with those managed preemptively (0.15 ± 0.17 vs 0.31 ± 0.20 mm; p = 0.01). Prophylaxed recipients presented less frequently with MIT change ≥0.3 mm ( p = 0.03) and ≥0.5 mm ( p = 0.10) than those managed preemptively. Prophylaxis was also associated with later onset of CMV infection ( p = 0.01), lower peak CMV detection ( p p = 0.04). After adjusting for metabolic risk factors and other possible confounders, prophylaxis remained independently associated with lower risk for MIT change ≥0.3 mm (odds ratio=0.09, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.93; p = 0.04). Conclusions Universal prophylaxis was associated with delayed onset of CMV infection, lower viral burden, reduced CMV disease/syndrome and less intimal thickening, as compared with a preemptive anti-CMV approach. Randomized studies are required to confirm the potential benefits of prophylaxis vs a preemptive approach in heart transplant recipients.

Heart transplantation (HT) is the sole therapeutic option for selected patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HC) and refractory heart failure. However, the results of HT have not been systematically investigated in HC. We assessed the pathophysiologic profile of HT candidates and the outcome after transplantation in 307 patients with HC consecutively evaluated at our tertiary referral center from 1987 to 2005; follow-up was 9.9+8.2 years. Outcome of recipients with HC was compared with that of 141 patients who underwent transplantation for idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy at our center over the same period. Of 21 patients with HC who entered the transplantation list, 20 had end-stage evolution with systolic dysfunction and 1 had an extremely small left ventricular cavity with impaired filling and recurrent cardiogenic shock during paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Of 33 study patients with HC who showed end-stage evolution during follow-up, the 23 who were included on the waiting list or died from refractory heart failure (2 patients) were significantly younger than the 10 patients who remained clinically stable (37 ± 14 vs 57 ± 17 years, p = 0.004). Of the 21 HT candidates, 18 underwent transplantation during follow-up. In heart transplant recipients, 7-year survival rate was 94% and not different from that of the 141 patients who received transplants for idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (p = 0.66). In conclusion, long-term outcome after HT in patients with HC is favorable and similar to that of patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. In patients with end-stage HC, young age is associated with more rapid progression to refractory heart failure.

A 32-year-old man with a four-year history of congestive heart failure was referred to our institution. Two years previously, the patient had received a diagnosis of idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy with severe secondary mitral insufficiency. Clinical reappraisal focused attention on the following features: (1) normal coronary arteries at angiography; (2) constantly elevated creatine phosphokinase (CPK) plasma values (300–450 mU/ml); (3) localised inferobasal left ventricular akinesia …

It is unknown whether time-related changes of pulmonary hypertension (PH) have prognostic relevance in severe chronic heart failure (CHF).All CHF patients referred for follow-up from 1996 through 2003 were screened for this study. Eligibility depended on availability of a concomitant clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic (ECG), echocardiographic and right-heart catheterization (RHC) assessment at index evaluation, as well as absence of pre-capillary PH.One hundred ninety-six patients (age 54 +/- 9 years; 27% women, 73% men; 50% in New York Heart Association [NYHA] Class III or IV) were included. PH at index evaluation was an independent predictor of acute heart failure or cardiovascular death (AHF/CD), with adjusted risk ratio (RR) = 2.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.42 to 3.73 and p0.001. A pre-study (or =6 months) RHC was available for 174 of the 196 patients. Worsening of mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP) ofor =30% (a pre-specified cut-off corresponding to the 75th percentile of DeltamPAP%) provided prognostic information independent of all index-evaluation parameters (adjusted RR = 2.60, 95% CI 1.45 to 4.67, p = 0.001), and from time-related changes in the other hemodynamic parameters (por = 0.033).PH retains independent prognostic significance even after adjusting for a large set of clinical/laboratory/instrumental parameters. Furthermore, serial measurements of mPAP seem to provide additional prognostic information as compared with a single assessment. These findings indicate that serial evaluations of PAP may help identify a sub-set of high-risk CHF patients deserving a particularly close follow-up to facilitate timely indications for non-pharmacologic strategies, including (when appropriate) heart transplantation.

Chronic heart failure (CHF) patients with intermediate cardiopulmonary capacity referred for heart transplantation are at "medium risk," and are not amenable to further stratification based solely on peak VO(2.) Accordingly, we analyzed whether time-related and/or non-time-related parameters could provide incremental prognostic information in CHF patients with intermediate cardiopulmonary capacity. METHODS: We analyzed 134 patients with a peak VO(2) of 10 to 18 ml/kg/min (age 54 +/- 9 years, 66% males) and a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of 27% +/- 8% who underwent an extensive clinical/instrumental (electrocardiogram, echocardiogram, cardiopulmonary exercise test) index evaluation; for all patients, an equivalent pre-study evaluation (performed >or=6 months before) was also available. RESULTS: Among index-evaluation parameters, systolic blood pressure (p < 0.001), LVEF (p = 0.036), and presence of severe mitral regurgitation (p = 0.006) independently predicted cardiac death/need for heart transplantation. Stable clinical condition from pre-study to index-evaluation accompanied by

Background Few studies are available regarding prognostic stratification of women with severe chronic heart failure (CHF). Although women seem to have a better outcome than men, this may be due to favorable baseline characteristics. Methods We analyzed a cohort of CHF patients referred for heart transplantation (HT) who underwent clinical/laboratory/instrumental evaluation. Women and men were frequency matched for baseline age (53 ± 14 vs 53 ± 9 years, p = 0.92), left ventricular ejection fraction (33 ± 10 vs 31 ± 8%, p = 0.90) and ischemic etiology (17 vs 22%, p = 0.50). Results A total of 198 patients were analyzed (109 women matched to 89 men). In addition to matching parameters, prevalence of severe symptoms, diabetes and hypertension were also comparable ( p ≥ 0.25). After 3 years, cardiovascular death or need for HT (CD/HT) event-free survival was 78 ± 4% in women and 50 ± 6% in men ( p = 0.005). On multivariate analysis, female gender was associated with a lower risk of CD/HT (relative risk [RR] 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30 to 0.89; p = 0.017), independently of symptoms, blood pressure (BP), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD) and mitral regurgitation (MR). Nevertheless, CD/HT event-free survival at 3 years was 49 ± 9% for women with New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class III or IV status, who presented with either severe MR, mean BP ≤60 mm Hg or LVEDD ≥35 mm/m 2 . Conclusions In advanced CHF, women patients seem to have a better prognosis irrespective of baseline characteristics, supporting the hypothesis that female gender is protective against myocardial injury. However, women with severe symptoms accompanied by either hypotension, severe left ventricular enlargement or MR are at high risk and deserve cautious follow-up and consideration for HT.

Background. Influenza may cause severe disease in immunosuppressed patients. Different vaccines have been proved to be efficacious to prevent influenza in tranplant recipients. Since the last five years the addition of adjuvants to improve the immune response to vaccine preparations has been proposed and evaluated. In this study, two antigenically identical vaccines, but different for the presence of adjuvants were randomised among a cohort of heart transplant recipients to evaluate their safety and immunogenicity. Methods. 58 patients, receiving an heart transplant more than 6 months before, were randomised to receive one shoot vaccination with Fluad (containing the MF59 adjuvant) or Agrippal (no adjuvant added) or to enter the control, not-vaccinated, group. The immune response to influenza was evaluated separately for type A and type B viruses and for the IgG and the IgM antibodies. Patients were clinically evaluated at least monthly up to 6 months. Results. Influenza symptoms were reported by 33% of patients receiving Fluad, 29% of the Agrippal and 63% of the control group. 4 episodes of acute myocardial rejection ≥ 3A were identified without difference between the three groups. Conclusions. The superior efficacy of vaccines containing adjuvants was not found and the data clearly confirmed that vaccination against influenza is safe and effective in heart transplant recipients. The use of vaccine containing adjuvant substances do not ameliorate the clinical performance of the immunisation suggesting that less expensive influenza vaccine preparation without adjuvant substances could be equally useful to protect heart transplant recipients. Background. Influenza may cause severe disease in immunosuppressed patients. Different vaccines have been proved to be efficacious to prevent influenza in tranplant recipients. Since the last five years the addition of adjuvants to improve the immune response to vaccine preparations has been proposed and evaluated. In this study, two antigenically identical vaccines, but different for the presence of adjuvants were randomised among a cohort of heart transplant recipients to evaluate their safety and immunogenicity. Methods. 58 patients, receiving an heart transplant more than 6 months before, were randomised to receive one shoot vaccination with Fluad (containing the MF59 adjuvant) or Agrippal (no adjuvant added) or to enter the control, not-vaccinated, group. The immune response to influenza was evaluated separately for type A and type B viruses and for the IgG and the IgM antibodies. Patients were clinically evaluated at least monthly up to 6 months. Results. Influenza symptoms were reported by 33% of patients receiving Fluad, 29% of the Agrippal and 63% of the control group. 4 episodes of acute myocardial rejection ≥ 3A were identified without difference between the three groups. Conclusions. The superior efficacy of vaccines containing adjuvants was not found and the data clearly confirmed that vaccination against influenza is safe and effective in heart transplant recipients. The use of vaccine containing adjuvant substances do not ameliorate the clinical performance of the immunisation suggesting that less expensive influenza vaccine preparation without adjuvant substances could be equally useful to protect heart transplant recipients.

Sudden and unexpected cardiac death continues to represent the most visible and devastating feature in the natural history of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and is more common in young patients [1,2]. Recently, the implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) has proved to be highly effective in preventing sudden death in HCM [3]. Therefore, there is an ever greater urgency to identify those young patients with this disease who are at high risk of sudden death and candidates to the ICD. Algorithms for risk stratification have been proposed [4], but the complexity and heterogeneity of HCM limit their accuracy. A 14-year-old boy with HCM was referred for cardiac evaluation because of a first and recent episode of syncope. While standing and with no apparent cause, the patient had lost consciousness and collapsed causing a bruise on his arm. With regard to family history, the 52-year-old father was affected, asymptomatic and had mild left ventricular hypertrophy (13 mm maximal wall thickness) on the echocardiogram. The only sibling, a sister with HCM, had died suddenly at the age of 13. At the time of our evaluation, the patient was asymptomatic, had a normal physical examination and was not taking cardioactive medications. On the echocardiogram, maximal left ventricular wall thickness was 22 mm, left ventricular end-diastolic cavity dimension 50 mm, and left atrial size 45 mm. A 48 h Holter monitoring did not show episodes of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, nor other complex supraventricular or ventricular