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Accurate estimates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in young children provide a critical indicator of ongoing community transmission of M. tuberculosis. Cross-reactions due to infection with environmental mycobacteria and/or bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination compromise the estimates derived from population-level tuberculin skin-test surveys using traditional cutoff methods. Newer statistical approaches are prone to failure of model convergence, especially in settings where the prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection is low and environmental sensitization is high. We conducted a tuberculin skin-test survey in 5,119 preschool children in the general population and among household contacts of tuberculosis cases in 2012–2014 in a district in northern Malawi where sensitization to environmental mycobacteria is common and almost all children are BCG-vaccinated. We compared different proposed methods of estimating M. tuberculosis prevalence, including a method described by Rust and Thomas more than 40 years ago. With the different methods, estimated prevalence in the general population was 0.7%–11.5% at ages

Objectives:\ud \ud Cross-sectional estimates of contraceptive use do not provide understanding of time to postpartum uptake. This paper uses a range of Malawian data sources: a prospective study to explore time to uptake of contraception and a cross-sectional survey to assess whether sexually active postpartum women whose fecundity has returned use contraception, and whether abstaining/amenorrheic women report using contraception.\ud Study design:\ud \ud A demographic surveillance site (DSS) in Malawi was used to identify 7393 women aged 15–49 years eligible for a 1-year prospective study of contraception using provider-recorded data on patient-held records (2012–2013). This provided a reliable record of time to uptake of postpartum contraception. The average timing of resumption of sexual activities after postpartum abstinence and return of menses was estimated from a population-based sexual behaviour survey in the DSS (2010–2011).\ud Results:\ud \ud Of 4678 women recruited to the prospective contraception study, 442 delivered an infant during the observation period. Of these, 28.4% used modern contraception within 6 months of delivery. However, at 6–9 months after delivery, only 28.0% women had started menstruation and resumed sexual activities; of these, 77.6% used contraception. Amongst abstaining/amenorrheic women, a quarter reported contraceptive use.\ud Conclusions:\ud \ud The low uptake of postpartum contraception is likely due to many women abstaining and/or experiencing amenorrhea. Self-reports of contraceptive use amongst abstaining/amenorrheic women bring into question the quality of cross-sectional surveys and demonstrate that contraceptive use by women at low risk of pregnancy could contribute to the Malawi paradox of high contraceptive use and high fertility. Given relatively low risk of pregnancy in the postpartum period in this context, a focus on long-acting/permanent methods may be more effective to avert unintended pregnancies.\ud Implications:\ud \ud There has been increasing interest in the utility of postpartum contraceptive programmes to assist women to space births. Our findings suggest that, although uptake of contraception is low, this is partly due to postpartum abstinence and amenorrhea. Provision of long-acting/permanent methods will be more effective for women after delivery.

Objectives \ud To examine the accuracy of glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) in detecting type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose among adults living in Malawi. \ud Design \ud A diagnostic validation study of HbA1c. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L was the reference standard for type 2 diabetes, and FPG between 6.1 and 6.9 mmol/L as impaired fasting glucose.\ud Participants \ud 3645 adults (of whom 63% were women) recruited from two demographic surveillance study sites in urban and rural Malawi. This analysis excluded those who had a previous diagnosis of diabetes or had history of taking diabetes medication. \ud Results \ud HbA1c demonstrated excellent validity to detect FPG-defined diabetes, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.92 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.94). At HbA1c ≥6.5% (140 mg/dL), sensitivity was 78.7% and specificity was 94.0%. Subgroup AUROCs ranged from 0.86 for participants with anaemia to 0.94 for participants in urban Malawi. There were clinical and metabolic differences between participants with true diabetes versus false positives when HbA1c was ≥6.5% (140 mg/dL). \ud Conclusions \ud The findings from this study provide justification to use HbA1c to detect type 2 diabetes. As HbA1c testing is substantially less burdensome to patients than either FPG testing or oral glucose tolerance testing, it represents a useful option for expanding access to diabetes care in sub-Saharan Africa.

Sub-Saharan Africa is in rapid demographic transition, and non-communicable diseases are increasingly important causes of morbidity and mortality. We investigated the burden of diabetes, overweight and obesity, hypertension, and multimorbidity, their treatment, and their associations with lifestyle and other factors in Malawi, a very poor country with a predominantly rural-but rapidly growing urban-population, to identify high-risk populations and inform appropriate interventions. In this cross-sectional, population-based study, we enrolled all adults (≥18 years) residing in two defined geographical areas within Karonga District and Lilongwe city. All adults self-defining as usually resident in the study areas were eligible, and recruited at household level. Participants were interviewed, had anthropometry and blood pressure measured, and had fasting blood samples collected. The study outcomes were prevalence estimates and risk ratios for diabetes (defined as fasting blood glucose of at least 7·0 mmol/L or self-report of a previous diagnosis of diabetes), hypertension (systolic blood pressure of at least 140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure of at least 90 mm Hg, or self-report of current antihypertensive medication), overweight (BMI of 25·0-29·9 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI of 30·0 kg/m2 or more), and multimorbidity (two or more of the above conditions) by location-specific (urban vs rural), age-specific, and sex-specific groups, calculated using negative binomial regression. We used χ2 likelihood ratio tests to assess heterogeneity by age, location, and sex. Between May 16, 2013, and Feb 8, 2016, we enrolled 15 013 (62%) of 24 367 eligible urban adults in Lilongwe and 13 878 (88%) of 15 806 eligible rural adults in Karonga District. Overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes were highly prevalent, more so in urban residents, the less poor, and better educated than in rural, the poorest, and least educated participants. 18% of urban men (961 of 5211 participants) and 44% (4115 of 9282) of urban women, and 9% (521 of 5834) of rural men and 27% (2038 of 7497) of rural women were overweight or obese; 16% (859 of 5212), 14% (1349 of 9793), 13% (787 of 5847), and 14% (1101 of 8025) had hypertension; and 3% (133 of 3928), 3% (225 of 7867), 2% (84 of 5004), and 2% (124 of 7116) had diabetes, respectively. Of 566 participants with diabetes, 233 (41%) were undiagnosed, and of 4096 participants with hypertension, 2388 (58%) were undiagnosed. Fewer than half the participants on medication for diabetes or hypertension had well controlled diabetes (84 [41%] of 207 participants) or blood pressure (440 [37%] of 1183 participants). Multimorbidity was highest in urban women (n=519, 7%). Overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes are highly prevalent in urban and rural Malawi, yet many patients are undiagnosed and management is limited. Local-evidence-informed multisectoral, innovative, and targeted interventions are needed urgently to manage the already high burden. Wellcome Trust. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.]

Household air pollution from burning solid fuels is responsible for an estimated 2.9 million premature deaths worldwide each year and 4.5% of global disability-adjusted life years, while cooking and fuel collection pose a considerable time burden, particularly for women and children. Cleaner burning biomass-fuelled cookstoves have the potential to lower exposure to household air pollution as well as reduce fuelwood demand by increasing the combustion efficiency of cooking fires, which may in turn yield ancillary benefits in other domains. The present paper capitalises on opportunities offered by the Cooking and Pneumonia Study (CAPS), the largest randomised trial of biomass-fuelled cookstoves on health outcomes conducted to date, the design of which allows for the evaluation of additional outcomes at scale. This mixed methods study assesses the impact of cookstoves on primary school absenteeism in Karonga district, northern Malawi, in particular by conferring health and time and resource gains on young people aged 5–18. The analysis combines quantitative data from 6168 primary school students with in-depth interviews and focus group discussions carried out among 48 students in the same catchment area in 2016. Negative binomial regression models find no evidence that the cookstoves affected primary school absenteeism overall [IRR 0.92 (0.71–1.18), p = 0.51]. Qualitative analysis suggests that the cookstoves did not sufficiently improve household health to influence school attendance, while the time and resource burdens associated with cooking activities—although reduced in intervention households—were considered to be compatible with school attendance in both trial arms. More research is needed to assess whether the cookstoves influenced educational outcomes not captured by the attendance measure available, such as timely arrival to school or hours spent on homework.

Highlights • Evaluation of vaccine impact and effectiveness is critically important but methodologically challenging. • Challenges include achieving unbiased ascertainment of vaccine status, and non-vaccine-attributable decline in morbidity and mortality. • Use of multiple sites together with diverse evaluation methods provides more robust evaluation., Background Pneumonia and gastroenteritis are leading causes of vaccine-preventable childhood morbidity and mortality. Malawi introduced pneumococcal conjugate and rotavirus vaccines to the immunisation programme in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Evaluating their effectiveness is vital to ensure optimal implementation and justify sustained investment. Methods/Design A national evaluation platform was established to determine vaccine effectiveness and impact in Malawi. Impact and effectiveness against vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease, radiological pneumonia and rotavirus gastroenteritis are investigated using before-after incidence comparisons and case-control designs, respectively. Mortality is assessed using a prospective population cohort. Cost-effectiveness evaluation is nested within the case-control studies. We describe platform characteristics including strengths and weaknesses for conducting vaccine evaluations. Discussion Integrating data from individual level and ecological methods across multiple sites provides comprehensive information for policymakers on programme impact and vaccine effectiveness including changes in serotype/genotype distribution over time. Challenges to robust vaccine evaluation in real-world conditions include: vaccination ascertainment; pre-existing rapid decline in mortality and pneumococcal disease in the context of non-vaccine interventions; and the maintenance of completeness and quality of reporting at scale and over time. In observational non-randomised designs ascertainment of vaccine status may be biased particularly in infants with fatal outcomes. In the context of multiple population level interventions targeting study endpoints attribution of reduced incidence to vaccine impact may be flawed. Providing evidence from several independent but complementary studies will provide the greatest confidence in assigning impact. Welcome declines in disease incidence and in child mortality make accrual of required sample sizes difficult, necessitating large studies to detect the relatively small but potentially significant contribution of vaccines to mortality prevention. Careful evaluation of vaccine effectiveness and impact in such settings is critical to sustaining support for vaccine programmes. Our evaluation platform covers a large population with a high prevalence of HIV and malnutrition and its findings will be relevant to other settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

Introduction: HIV reduces fertility through biological and social pathways, and antiretroviral treatment (ART) can ameliorate these effects. In northern Malawi, ART has been available since 2007 and lifelong ART is offered to all pregnant or breastfeeding HIV-positive women.\ud \ud Methods: Using data from the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance Site in Malawi from 2005 to 2014, we used total and age-specific fertility rates and Cox regression to assess associations between HIV and ART use and fertility. We also assessed temporal trends in in utero and breastfeeding HIV and ART exposure among live births.\ud \ud Results: From 2005 to 2014, there were 13,583 live births during approximately 78,000 person years of follow-up of women aged 15–49 years. The total fertility rate in HIV-negative women decreased from 6.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.5 to 6.8] in 2005–2006 to 5.1 (4.8–5.5) in 2011–2014. In HIV-positive women, the total fertility rate was more stable, although lower, at 4.4 (3.2–6.1) in 2011–2014. In 2011–2014, compared with HIV-negative women, the adjusted (age, marital status, and education) hazard ratio was 0.7 (95% CI: 0.6 to 0.9) and 0.8 (95% CI: 0.6 to 1.0) for women on ART for at least 9 months and not (yet) on ART, respectively. The crude fertility rate increased with duration on ART up to 3 years before declining. The proportion of HIV-exposed infants decreased, but the proportion of ART-exposed infants increased from 2.4% in 2007–2010 to 3.5% in 2011–2014.\ud \ud Conclusions: Fertility rates in HIV-positive women are stable in the context of generally decreasing fertility. Despite a decrease in HIV-exposed infants, there has been an increase in ART-exposed infants.

Background: Improved life expectancy in high HIV prevalence populations has been observed since antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. However, it is unclear if the benefits are sustained, and the mortality among HIV-positive individuals not (yet) on ART is not well described. We assessed temporal change in mortality over 9 years in rural Malawi.\ud \ud Methods: Within a demographic surveillance site in northern rural Malawi, we combined demographic, HIV and ART uptake data. We calculated life expectancy using Kaplan-Meier estimates, and compared mortality rates and rate ratios using Poisson regression, by period of ART availability (July 2005–June 2008, July 2008–June 2011 and July 2011–June 2014).\ud \ud Results: Among 32 664 individuals there were 1424 deaths; 1930 individuals were known HIV-positive, of whom 1382 started ART. Overall, life expectancy at age 15 years increased by 10 years within 5 years of ART introduction, and plateaued. Age-standardized adult mortality rates declined from 11.3/1000 to 7.5/1000 person-years between the first and last time period. In July 2011-June 2014 compared with July 2005–June 2008, mortality declined in HIV-positive individuals on ART (rate ratio adjusted (aRR) for age, sex, location and education, 0.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2–0.5) and in those not (yet) on ART (aRR 0.3; 95%CI 0.1–0.5) but not in HIV-negative individuals (aRR 1.1; 95%CI 0.7–1.9).\ud \ud Conclusions: Total population adult life expectancy increased toward that of HIV-negative individuals by 2011 and remained raised. The reduction in all-cause and HIV-related mortality in HIV-positive individuals not (yet) on ART suggests ART uptake is occurring at an earlier disease stage, particularly in women.

Background: Verbal autopsy could be more widely used if interpretation by computer algorithm could be relied on. We assessed how InterVA-4 results compared with clinician review in diagnosing HIV/AIDS-related deaths over the period of antiretroviral (ART) roll-out.Design: In the Karonga Prevention Study demographic surveillance site in northern Malawi, all deaths are followed by verbal autopsy using a semi-structured questionnaire. Cause of death is assigned by two clinicians with a third as a tie-breaker. The clinician review diagnosis was compared with the InterVA diagnosis using the same questionnaire data, including all adult deaths from late 2002 to 2012. For both methods data on HIV status were used. ART was first available in the district from 2005, and within the demographic surveillance area from 2006.Results: There were 1,637 adult deaths, with verbal autopsy data for 1,615. Adult mortality and the proportion of deaths attributable to HIV/AIDS fell dramatically following ART introduction, but for each year the proportion attributed to HIV/AIDS by InterVA was lower than that attributed by clinician review. This was partly explained by the handling of TB cases. Using clinician review as the best available ‘gold standard’, for those aged 15–59, the sensitivity of InterVA for HIV/AIDS deaths was 59% and specificity 88%. Grouping HIV/AIDS/TB sensitivity was 78% and specificity 83%. Sensitivity was lower after widespread ART use.Conclusions: InterVA underestimates the proportion of deaths due to HIV/AIDS. Accepting that it is unrealistic to try and differentiate TB and AIDS deaths would improve the estimates. Caution is needed in interpreting trends in causes of death as ART use may affect the performance of the algorithm.Keywords: HIV; mortality; verbal autopsy; antiretroviral therapy; Africa(Published: 30 April 2014)Citation: Glob Health Action 2014, 7: 23621 - http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/gha.v7.23621SPECIAL ISSUEThis paper is part of the Special Issue Measuring HIV Associated Mortality in Africa. More papers from this issue can be found here and here.

Background Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates. Methods and Findings We developed a predictive model, the Incidence Patterns Model (IPM), representing populations according to factors that have been demonstrated to be strongly associated with HIV acquisition risk: gender, marital/sexual activity status, geographic location, “key populations” based on risk behaviours (sex work, injecting drug use, and male-to-male sex), HIV and ART status within married or cohabiting unions, and circumcision status. The IPM estimates the distribution of new infections acquired by group based on these factors within a Bayesian framework accounting for regional prior information on demographic and epidemiological characteristics from trials or observational studies. We validated and trained the model against direct observations of HIV incidence by group in seven rounds of cohort data from four studies (“sites”) conducted in Manicaland, Zimbabwe; Rakai, Uganda; Karonga, Malawi; and Kisesa, Tanzania. The IPM performed well, with the projections’ credible intervals for the proportion of new infections per group overlapping the data’s confidence intervals for all groups in all rounds of data. In terms of geographical distribution, the projections’ credible intervals overlapped the confidence intervals for four out of seven rounds, which were used as proxies for administrative divisions in a country. We assessed model performance after internal training (within one site) and external training (between sites) by comparing mean posterior log-likelihoods and used the best model to estimate the distribution of HIV incidence in six countries (Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Swaziland, and Zambia) in the region. We subsequently inferred the potential contribution of each group to transmission using a simple model that builds on the results from the IPM and makes further assumptions about sexual mixing patterns and transmission rates. In all countries except Swaziland, individuals in unions were the single group contributing to the largest proportion of new infections acquired (39%–77%), followed by never married women and men. Female sex workers accounted for a large proportion of new infections (5%–16%) compared to their population size. Individuals in unions were also the single largest contributor to the proportion of infections transmitted (35%–62%), followed by key populations and previously married men and women. Swaziland exhibited different incidence patterns, with never married men and women accounting for over 65% of new infections acquired and also contributing to a large proportion of infections transmitted (up to 56%). Between- and within-country variations indicated different incidence patterns in specific settings. Conclusions It is possible to reliably predict the distribution of new HIV infections acquired using data routinely available in many countries in the sub-Saharan African region with a single relatively simple mathematical model. This tool would complement more specific analyses to guide resource allocation, data collection, and programme planning., Annick Borquez and colleagues describe the development and validation of a mathematical model for estimating the distribution of new HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa., Author Summary Why Was This Study Done? HIV national programmes require knowledge of incidence patterns across the country to tailor HIV prevention and testing programmes to the groups and places that will carry the incidence burden. Mathematical models provide an alternative to prospective cohort studies—which are costly and cannot be routinely implemented—to estimate HIV incidence. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to bear the burden of the HIV epidemic and requires specifically tailored tools to inform HIV programmatic decision making. What Did the Researchers Do and Find? We developed the Incidence Patterns Model (IPM), which builds on strong data sources to produce geographically disaggregated estimates of the distribution of new infections in the next year by gender and marital/sexual activity status in SSA countries, taking into account the coverage of antiretroviral therapy and circumcision in these groups. We tested the IPM’s predictions on cohort data from four settings in the region for which the distribution of new infections is known and showed that the IPM was able to accurately estimate the distribution of new infections by group and geographical location. We applied the IPM to six countries in the region and identified broad differences in incidence patterns between and within countries and also illustrated plausible transmission patterns, providing insight into interventions to be prioritised. What Do These Findings Mean? The IPM is a useful tool to guide programmatic planning, identify data collection priorities, and support research and demonstration studies in particular groups. The IPM should be used in conjunction with contextual epidemiological studies, HIV programme and spending data, and models that provide a long-term perspective to develop a strategy that considers short- and long-term priorities.

Objective: Verbal autopsies (VAs) are interviews with a relative or friend of the deceased; VAs are a technique used in surveillance sites in many countries with incomplete death certification. The goal of this study was to assess the accuracy and validity of data on HIV status and antiretroviral therapy (ART) usage reported in VAs and their influence on physician attribution of cause of death.Design: This was a prospective cohort study.Methods: The Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance Site monitors demographic events in a population in a rural area of northern Malawi; a VA is attempted on all deaths reported. VAs are reviewed by clinicians, who, with additional HIV test information collected pre-mortem, assign a cause of death. We linked HIV/ART information reported by respondents during adult VAs to database information on HIV testing and ART use and analysed agreement using chi-square and kappa statistics. We used multivariable logistic regression to analyse factors associated with agreement.Results: From 2003 to 2014, out of a total of 1,952 VAs, 80% of respondents reported the HIV status of the deceased. In 2013–2014, this figure was 99%. Of those with an HIV status known to the study, there was 89% agreement on HIV status between the VA and pre-mortem data, higher for HIV-negative people (92%) than HIV-positive people (83%). There was 84% agreement on whether the deceased had started ART, and 72% of ART initiation dates matched within 1 year.Conclusions: In this population, HIV/ART information was often disclosed during a VA and matched well with other data sources. Reported HIV/ART status appears to be a reliable source of information to help classification of cause of death.Keywords: verbal autopsy; Africa; Malawi; cause of death; demographic surveillance; HIV; ART(Published: 9 June 2016)Citation: Glob Health Action 2016, 9: 31084 - http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/gha.v9.31084

Background Lymphatic filariasis (LF) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are major public health problems. Individuals may be co-infected, raising the possibility of important interactions between these two pathogens with consequences for LF elimination through annual mass drug administration (MDA). Methodology and Principal Findings We analysed circulating filarial antigenaemia (CFA) by HIV infection status among adults in two sites in northern Malawi, a region endemic for both LF and HIV. Stored blood samples and data from two geographically separate studies were used: one a recruitment phase of a clinical trial of anti-filarial agent dosing regimens, and the other a whole population annual HIV sero-survey. In study one, 1,851 consecutive adult volunteers were screened for HIV and LF infection. CFA prevalence was 25.4% (43/169) in HIV-positive and 23.6% (351/1487) in HIV-negative participants (p=0.57). Geometric mean CFA concentrations were 859 and 1660 antigen units per ml of blood (Ag/ml) respectively, geometric mean ratio (GMR) 0.85, 95%CI 0.49-1.50. In 7,863 adults in study two, CFA prevalence was 20.9% (86/411) in HIV-positive and 24.0% (1789/7452) in HIV–negative participants (p=0.15). Geometric mean CFA concentrations were 630 and 839 Ag/ml respectively (GMR 0.75, 95%CI 0.60-0.94). In the HIV-positive group, antiretroviral therapy (ART) use was associated with a lower CFA prevalence, 12.7% (18/142) vs. 25.3% (67/265), (OR 0.43, 95%CI 0.24-0.76). Prevalence of CFA decreased with duration of ART use, 15.2% 0-1 year (n=59), 13.6% >1-2 years (n=44), 10.0% >2-3 years (n=30) and 0% >3-4 years treatment (n=9), p, Author Summary Lymphatic filariasis (LF) and HIV are both major public health problems worldwide and where they co-exist have the potential to interact. The main strategy for LF elimination is annual mass drug administration (MDA). A particular concern is whether HIV, through its impact on the immune system, will interfere with the effectiveness of this approach to control and eliminate LF. We report findings from cross-sectional studies in two separate populations in northern Malawi where both HIV and LF are common. One group (1,851 individuals) were studied at enrolment into a trial of anti-LF treatments, whilst the other study used samples stored from adult participants in a whole population HIV survey (7,863 individuals). Between 5–10% of the study participants were HIV-positive and 24% were LF-infected. We found no evidence that LF infection was more or less common in HIV-positive adults in either population. However, we identified robust evidence that antiretroviral therapy use was associated with lower LF prevalence rates. We have no evidence to suggest HIV will have a detrimental effect on LF control. On the contrary, the evidence suggests that antiretroviral therapy may have beneficial effects and merits further careful evaluation of the anti-filarial properties of these compounds.

Background: Substantial falls in the mortality of people living with HIV (PLWH) have been observed since the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. However, access and uptake of ART have been variable in many countries. We report the excess deaths observed in PLWH before and after the introduction of ART. We use data from five longitudinal studies in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda, members of the network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA).Methods: Individual data from five demographic surveillance sites that conduct HIV testing were used to estimate mortality attributable to HIV, calculated as the difference between the mortality rates in PLWH and HIV-negative people. Excess deaths in PLWH were standardized for age and sex differences and summarized over periods before and after ART became generally available. An exponential regression model was used to explore differences in the impact of ART over the different sites.Results: 127,585 adults across the five sites contributed a total of 487,242 person years. Before the introduction of ART, HIV-attributable mortality ranged from 45 to 88 deaths per 1,000 person years. Following ART availability, this reduced to 14–46 deaths per 1,000 person years. Exponential regression modeling showed a reduction of more than 50% (HR =0.43, 95% CI: 0.32–0.58), compared to the period before ART was available, in mortality at ages 15–54 across all five sites.Discussion: Excess mortality in adults living with HIV has reduced by over 50% in five communities in sub-Saharan Africa since the advent of ART. However, mortality rates in adults living with HIV are still 10 times higher than in HIV-negative people, indicating that substantial improvements can be made to reduce mortality further. This analysis shows differences in the impact across the sites, and contrasts with developed countries where mortality among PLWH on ART can be similar to that of the general population. Further research is urgently needed to establish why the different impacts on mortality were observed and how the care and treatment programmes in these countries can be more effective in reducing mortality further.Keywords: HIV; sub-Saharan Africa; mortality; ALPHA network; antiretroviral therapy(Published: 22 April 2014)Citation: Glob Health Action 2014, 7: 22789 - http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/gha.v7.22789SPECIAL ISSUEThis paper is part of the Special Issue Measuring HIV Associated Mortality in Africa. More papers from this issue can be found here and here.

There are few cohorts of individuals who have survived infection with HIV-1 for more than 20 years, reported and followed in the literature, and even fewer from Africa. Here we present data on a cohort of subtype C-infected individuals from rural northern Malawi. By sequencing multiple clones from long-term survivors at different time points, and using multiple genotyping approaches, we show that 5 of the 11 individuals are predicted as CXCR4 using (by ≥3/5 predictors) but only one individual is predicted as CXCR4 using by all five algorithms. Using any one genotyping approach overestimates the number of predicted CXCR4 sequences. Patterns of diversity and divergence were variable between the HIV-1 long-term survivors with some individuals showing very small amounts of variation and change, and others showing a greater amount; both patterns are consistent with what has been described in the literature.

BackgroundPrevious studies of HIV acquisition in pregnancy have been in specific population groups, such as sero-discordant couples which have shown an increased risk of HIV acquisition during pregnancy and studies of sexually active women where the results have been ambiguous. However these studies are unable to tell us what the overall impact of pregnancy is on HIV acquisition in the general population.MethodsData from six community-based HIV cohorts were pooled to give 2,628 sero-conversions and a total of 178,000 person years of observation. Multiple imputation was used to allow for the uncertainty of exact sero-conversion date in surveillance intervals greater than the length of a pregnancy. Results were combined using Rubin’s rules to give appropriate error bounds. The analysis was stratified into two periods: pre- and post- widespread availability of prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission services. This allows us to assess whether there is reporting bias relating to a person’s knowledge of their own HIV status which would become more widespread in the latter time period.ResultsResults suggest that women while pregnant have a lower risk of acquiring HIV infection over all periods (HRR 0.79, 95%CI 0.70-0.89) than women who were not pregnant. There is no evidence for a difference in the rate of HIV acquisition between postpartum and non-pregnant women (HRR 0.92 95%CI 0.84-1.03).DiscussionAlthough there may be immunological reasons for increased risk of HIV acquisition during pregnancy, at a population level this study indicates a lower risk of HIV acquisition for pregnant women. Pregnant women may be more likely to be concordant with their current sexual partner than non-pregnant women, i.e. either already HIV positive prior to the pregnancy or if negative at the time of becoming pregnant more likely to have a negative partner.