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Ecological change in the Brazilian Amazon is closely linked to human mobility and health. Mining, agriculture, logging, and other activities alter highly diverse ecological and demographic contexts and subsequent exposure to diseases such as malaria. Studies that have attempted to quantify the impact of deforestation on malaria in the Brazilian Amazon have produced conflicting results. However, they varied in methodology and data sources. Most importantly, all studies used annual data, neglecting the subannual seasonal dynamics of malaria. Here, we fill the knowledge gap on the subannual relationship between ecological change in the Brazilian Amazon and malaria transmission. Using the highest spatiotemporal resolution available, we estimated the effect of deforestation on malaria cases between 2003 and 2022 using a stratified Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchical zero-inflated Poisson model fitted with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. The model was also stratified by state. We found that a 1% increase in 1-mo lagged deforestation increased malaria cases in a given month and municipality by 6.3% [95% credible interval (Crl): 6.2, 6.5%]. Based on an interaction term included in the model, the effect of deforestation on malaria was even larger in areas with higher forest cover. We found that the coefficients for deforestation and mobility were highly variable when stratified by state. Our results provide detailed evidence that, on average, deforestation increases malaria transmission, but that the relationship is not spatiotemporally uniform. These results have implications for stratifying malaria control interventions based on ecological dynamics to help Brazil achieve its goal of malaria elimination by 2035. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from a commonly occurring form of interval-censored longitudinal parasitological data—specifically, 2-wave panel data—was first proposed 40 years ago based on the theory of continuous-time homogeneous Markov Chains. Assumptions of the methodology were suitable for settings with high malaria transmission in the absence of control measures, but are violated in areas experiencing fast decline or that have achieved very low transmission. No further developments that can accommodate such violations have been put forth since then. We extend previous work and propose a new methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from 2-wave panel data, utilizing the class of 2-component mixtures of continuous-time Markov chains, representing two sub-populations with distinct behavior/attitude towards malaria prevention and treatment. Model identification, or even partial identification, requires context-specific a priori constraints on parameters. The method can be applied to scenarios of any transmission intensity. We provide an application utilizing data from Dar es Salaam, an area that experienced steady decline in malaria over almost five years after a larviciding intervention. We conducted sensitivity analysis to account for possible sampling variation in input data and model assumptions/parameters, and we considered differences in estimates due to submicroscopic infections. Results showed that, assuming defensible a priori constraints on model parameters, most of the uncertainty in the estimated incidence rates was due to sampling variation, not to partial identifiability of the mixture model for the case at hand. Differences between microscopy- and PCR-based rates depend on the transmission intensity. Leveraging on a method to estimate incidence rates from 2-wave panel data under any transmission intensity, and from the increasing availability of such data, there is an opportunity to foster further methodological developments, particularly focused on partial identifiability and the diversity of a priori parameter constraints associated with different human-ecosystem interfaces. As a consequence there can be more nuanced planning and evaluation of malaria control programs than heretofore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The public health and economic significance of malaria is enormous, and its control remains a great challenge. Many established malaria control methods are hampered by drug resistance and insecticide-resistant vectors. Malaria control measures built around environmental management are non-toxic, cost-effective, and sustainable. However, there has been no comprehensive review of the literature or meta-analysis examining the effect of these interventions. We therefore did a systematic literature review and identified 40 studies that emphasised environmental management interventions and reported clinical malaria variables as outcome measures. Of these 40 studies, environmental modification (measures aiming to create a permanent or long-lasting effect on land, water, or vegetation to reduce vector habitats—eg, the installation and maintenance of drains) was the central feature in 27 studies, environmental manipulation (methods creating temporary unfavourable conditions for the vector—eg, water or vegetation management) in four, and nine quantified the effect of modifications of human habitation. Most of the studies (n=34, 85%) were implemented before the Global Malaria Eradication Campaign (1955–69), which mainly relied on indoor residual spraying with dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). In 16 studies that applied environmental modification and in eight studies on modification of human habitation, the risk ratio of malaria was reduced by 88·0% (95% CI 81·7–92·1) and 79·5% (95% CI 67·4–87·2), respectively. We conclude that malaria control programmes that emphasise environmental management are highly effective in reducing morbidity and mortality. Lessons learned from these past successful programmes can inspire sound and sustainable malaria control approaches and strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Most of the evidence available so far suggests that malaria was not present in the New World before the European conquest. However, the timing of the introduction of the disease in the Americas is still a matter of controversy. In this paper we appraise the debate in the context of the Brazilian Amazon, where malaria is, at the present time and has been for several centuries, an important health problem. We review and summarize the available evidence in favor of the introduction of malaria after the conquest based on historical documents, studies in genetics and evolutionary biology, epidemiological issues, and archaeological discoveries. We argue that despite the compelling arguments provided by the extant body of evidence, a more definitive proof is needed. We suggest that archaeology, via analyses of existing skeletal remains from Amazonia using biomolecular techniques, may represent the best (and unique) approach to a definitive resolution of a long-standing debate. We anticipate that in the near future a multidisciplinary effort can be brought together to provide a clear answer to a long standing epidemiological question: Was malaria present in the Amazon before the European conquest? [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Health impact assessment (HIA) of projects, programmes and policies is increasingly recognized as a powerful methodology for mitigating negative health impacts and enhancing equitable and sustainable development, yet applications in the developing world are sparse. Here, we focus on a large infrastructure development in sub-Saharan Africa, namely the Chad–Cameroon petroleum development and pipeline project. We adapted a five-step process for HIA, consisting of (1) screening of project documents, (2) profiling of affected communities, (3) identifying priority health areas, predicting potential impacts, and proposing mitigation measures, (4) implementing interventions, and (5) monitoring and evaluation of health impacts. We found that project scoping was broad, including extensive environmental and social assessments. Innovative features of the project include the high degree of public–private partnerships, and the management of oil revenues for purposes of poverty reduction. The project also addressed occupational and public health issues, and developed and implemented measures to prevent or mitigate potential health impacts. However, there was a disproportionate emphasis on workers'' health, particularly on the prevention/mitigation of construction-related injuries, sexually transmitted infections (STIs; mainly HIV/AIDS), and malaria. Health impacts among surrounding communities, and cumulative health impacts in the larger region were not considered in a comprehensive way. Concluding, there is a need for a more systemic approach to HIA and its incorporation within ‘Equator Principles’, which are increasingly adopted by the international financial community. This process would include clarification of corporate social responsibility beyond the project fence line in the mitigation of health problems at regional levels. Finally, we propose the establishment and running of a longitudinal demographic surveillance system, which—coupled with regular household surveys—would facilitate monitoring and evaluation of impacts on health, social wellbeing and equity in the broadest possible manner. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

It has long been suggested that malaria is delaying the economic development of countries that are most severely affected by the disease. Several studies have documented the economic consequences of malaria at the household level, primarily in communities engaged in subsistence farming. A missing element is the appraisal of the economic impact of malaria on the industrial and service sectors that will probably become the backbone of many developing economies. We estimate the economic effects of integrated malaria control implemented during the colonial period and sustained for 20 years in four copper mining communities of the former Northern Rhodesia (now Zambia). Integrated malaria control was characterized by strong emphasis on environmental management, while part of the mining communities also benefited from rapid diagnosis and treatment and the use of bednets. The programmes were highly successful as an estimated 14,122 deaths, 517,284 malaria attacks and 942,347 work shift losses were averted. Overall, 127,226 disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were averted per 3-year incremental period. The cumulative costs of malaria control interventions were 11,169,472 US dollars (in 1995 US dollars). Because the control programmes were so effective, the mining companies attracted a large reservoir of migrant labourers and sustained healthy work forces. The programmes averted an estimated 796,622 US dollars in direct treatment costs and 5,678,745 US dollars in indirect costs as a result of reduced work absenteeism. Within a few years of programme initiation, Northern Rhodesia became the leading copper producer in Africa, and mining generated the dominant share of national income. Copper production and revenues, which increased dramatically during malaria control interventions, amounted to the equivalent of 7.1 billion US dollars (in 1995 US dollars). Integrated malaria control in copper mining communities was a sound investment. It had payoff for public and occupational health, generally, and without it copper extraction and social and economic development would have been impossible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Roll back malaria (RBM) aims at halving the current burden of the disease by the year 2010. The focus is on sub-Saharan Africa, and it is proposed to implement efficacious and cost-effective control strategies. But the evidence base of such information is scarce, and a notable missing element is the discussion of the potential of environmental management. We reviewed the literature and identified multiple malaria control programmes that incorporated environmental management as the central feature. Prominent among them are programmes launched in 1929 and implemented for two decades at copper mining communities in Zambia. The full package of control measures consisted of vegetation clearance, modification of river boundaries, draining swamps, oil application to open water bodies and house screening. Part of the population also was given quinine and was sleeping under mosquito nets. Monthly malaria incidence rates and vector densities were used for surveillance and adaptive tuning of the environmental management strategies to achieve a high level of performance. Within 3-5 years, malaria-related mortality, morbidity and incidence rates were reduced by 70-95%. Over the entire 20 years of implementation, the programme had averted an estimated 4173 deaths and 161,205 malaria attacks. The estimated costs per death and malaria attack averted were US$ 858 and US$ 22.20, respectively. Over the initial 3-5 years start-up period, analogous to the short-duration of cost-effectiveness analyses of current studies, we estimated that the costs per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted were US$ 524-591. However, the strategy has a track record of becoming cost-effective in the longer term, as maintenance costs were much lower: US$ 22-92 per DALY averted. In view of fewer adverse ecological effects, increased sustainability and better uses of local resources and knowledge, environmental management--integrated with pharmacological, insecticidal and bednet interventions--could substantially increase the chances of rolling back malaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the effect of large dams on malaria incidence in India between 1975 and 1995. We combine instrumental variables approach with a panel model with unobserved common factors allowing us to fully capture the endogeneity of dam location and unobserved time-varying heterogeneity. Dams result in increased malaria incidence in districts where dams are located and in downstream areas. We find that the construction of a large dam increases a district's annual malaria incidence by about 0.9 to 1.4 percent, and by about 1 to 1.5 percent in downstream districts. We also find that this malaria-increasing effect of dams persists over time. Our results imply that the construction of dams in malaria-sensitive areas should be coupled with direct interventions, such as the wide deployment of insecticide-treated nets or the roll-out of future vaccines. Furthermore, we examine the contribution of agricultural development to this malaria-increasing effect of dams. We find that dam construction benefits agriculture in the vicinity of dams, as well as in downstream areas. These positive effects are driven by increased irrigation and cultivation in the vicinity of dams, while they are driven by changes in cropping patterns in downstream areas, where the cultivation of high-yielding variety crops increases. Finally, a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the agricultural production gains from dam construction dominate the economic losses resulting from increased malaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A measure of local spatial association, , is applied to test for the presence of malaria clusters in a colonization area in the Brazilian Amazon. Clusters of high and low malaria rates at different moments in time are identified. They suggest unambiguous spatial patterns of transmission, most likely linked to the social and natural habitat. Results imply that a comprehensive identification of the determinants of malaria transmission requires a spatial framework of analysis, and that control strategies must be spatially targeted and guided by a surveillance system that constantly learns the specificities of local transmission and adapts interventions to them. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Geographic factors such as rugged terrain and distance from capital cities are widely believed to prolong civil wars by enabling rebel groups to resist total defeat. This article argues that prevalence of malaria can similarly serve to asymmetrically enhance rebels’ defensive capabilities and thus prolong civil war. Malaria prevalence does so in three complementary ways. First, while malaria can inflict costs on both government and rebel troops, these costs are magnified for larger and denser human groups; thereby ensuring that the costs of malaria will often be higher among government troop deployments. Second, because government soldiers are rotated in and out of conflict zones whereas insurgents typically are not, the former are likely to have a higher nonimmune exposure rate than the latter, which further ensures that government forces will be more susceptible to contracting and spreading malaria. Third, malaria can also indirectly prolong civil war by helping to maintain a socio-geographic environment that is conducive to insurgency. These three complementary factors advantage rebel forces’ abilities to resist defeat by government forces and prolong civil conflicts. I empirically test these arguments by examining the duration of civil wars and find strong support for a prolonging effect of malaria on civil conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty reduction policies guide development strategies. In economies that depend heavily on agriculture, in the face of rapid population growth, innovative approaches are required to satisfy food needs, increase household welfare and alleviate poverty. Irrigated agriculture is an important strategy to enhance crop production, but it must be well tailored to specific socio-ecological settings, as otherwise, it might increase the burden of water-related parasitic diseases and delay economic advance. The purpose of this study is to assess and quantify the effect of ill health, particularly malaria, on the performance of farm activity, with an emphasis on drip-irrigated vegetable farming in rural Coˆte d’Ivoire. Vegetable yields and revenues were monitored among 12 farmers and linked with longitudinal medical and entomological surveys. Over the course of 10 months, farmers were classified as sick, on average, for 14–15 days, with malaria accounting for 8–9 days (58%), confirming that malaria is the most important disease in this setting. There was a large heterogeneity among farmers, with malaria-related work losses ranging between 0 and 26 days. Work absenteeism correlated with overall yields and revenues. During a single cabbage production cycle, those farmers who were prescribed sick because of malaria for more than 2 days (mean: 4.2 days) had 47% lower yields and 53% lower revenues than farmers who missed a maximum of 2 days (mean: 0.3 days). This is consequential in an intensive cropping system, where substitutes for qualified workers are not readily available. We conclude that mitigating the burden of malaria is an important step towards reducing the vulnerability of people engaged in intensive agricultural production. This calls for targeted interventions to facilitate agriculture-based rural development that might spur social and economic development and reduce inequities in sub-Saharan Africa. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]