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Over 200 million malaria cases globally lead to half-million deaths annually. The development of malaria prevalence prediction systems to support malaria care pathways has been hindered by lack of data, a tendency towards universal "monolithic" models (one-size-fits-all-regions) and a focus on long lead time predictions. Current systems do not provide short-term local predictions at an accuracy suitable for deployment in clinical practice. Here we show a data-driven approach that reliably produces one-month-ahead prevalence prediction within a densely populated all-year-round malaria metropolis of over 3.5 million inhabitants situated in Nigeria which has one of the largest global burdens of P. falciparum malaria. We estimate one-month-ahead prevalence in a unique 22-years prospective regional dataset of > 9 × 10 4 participants attending our healthcare services. Our system agrees with both magnitude and direction of the prediction on validation data achieving MAE ≤ 6 × 10 -2 , MSE ≤ 7 × 10 -3 , PCC (median 0.63, IQR 0.3) and with more than 80% of estimates within a (+ 0.1 to - 0.05) error-tolerance range which is clinically relevant for decision-support in our holoendemic setting. Our data-driven approach could facilitate healthcare systems to harness their own data to support local malaria care pathways.

Background: Haemoglobinuria is one of the manifestations of severe malaria and results from severe intravascular haemolysis. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency has been implicated in its aetiology. Haemoglobinuria may be associated with severe anaemia and, less frequently, acute renal failure., Methods: A prospective case-control study was carried out to determine the incidence of haemoglobinuria as confirmed by dipstick urinalysis, microscopy and spectrophotometric measurement, among children with severe malaria. A total of 251 children presenting at the Children's Emergency Ward with severe malaria were recruited over a period of 21 months. The G6PD status and the outcomes of severe malaria in children with and without haemoglobinuria was studied with respect to renal failure, the recurrence of haemoglobinuria and blood pressure changes over a three-month follow-up period., Results: It was found that the incidence of haemoglobinuria among children with severe malaria is 19.1%. Children <5 years constituted 76.8% of all the study patients. Patients with haemoglobinuria had median age of 52.5 months, which was significantly higher than 35 months in patients without haemoglobinuria (p=0.001). Although, haemaglobinuria was commoner among boys (54.2%) than girls (45.8%), the difference was not statistically significant. There were no significant differences between children with and without haemoglobinuria regarding their nutritional status or parasite densities. Among the clinical features of the study patients, only jaundice was significantly associated with haemoglobinuria (p=0.0001). Renal failure occurred in three out of 48 children with haemoglobinuria and in none of the 203 without. There was not recurrence of haemoglobinuria in the follow-up period. At discharge, blood pressure was elevated in six children (one previously haemoglobinuric), but all returned to normal within the follow-up period., Conclusions: Haemoglobinuria was a prominent feature of severe malaria and it was significantly associated with jaundice at presentation. Haemoglobinuria was commoner in older children than younger children but not related to sex. G6PD deficiency was not an independent predictor of the occurrence or outcome of haemoglobinuria. Blood pressure was not affected by haemoglobinuria on admission nor during follow-up.

In the tropics, febrile illnesses are often presumed to be due to malaria, because of its endemicity, and treatment can lead to delay in diagnosis or failure to detect severe infections such as bacteraemia. This study sought to determine the prevalence of bacteraemia and malaria parasitaemia in febrile post-neonatal infants (age 1-12 months) at the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria, and the bacterial aetiological agents of bacteraemia in the infants. Therefore, 102 infants aged 1-12 months who presented with fever with a negative history of antimicrobial use in the week prior to presentation were evaluated and had blood cultures done for the detection of aerobic organisms by standard methods and blood films for malaria parasites. Bacteraemia was found in 38.2% of the infants, malaria parasitaemia was found in 46.1%. The most common organisms isolated were Escherichia coli (35.9%), Staphylococcus aureus (33.3%) and Klebsiella spp. (10.3%). Febrile children should be investigated for the presence of bacterial infection even if the blood film for malaria parasites is positive. Where laboratory facilities are not available, consideration should be given to the use of both anti-malarial therapy and empiric antibiotic therapy in the management of febrile infants, depending on the clinician's judgement.