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Background: An estimated 1.5 billion malaria cases and 7.6 million malaria deaths have been averted globally since 2000; long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have contributed an estimated 68% of this reduction. Insufficient funding at the international and domestic levels poses a significant threat to future progress and there is growing emphasis on the need for enhanced domestic resource mobilization. The Private Sector Malaria Prevention (PSMP) project was a 3-year intervention to catalyse private sector investment in malaria prevention in Ghana., Methods: To assess value for money of the intervention, non-donor expenditure in the 5 years post-project catalysed by the initial donor investment was predicted. Non-donor expenditure catalysed by this investment included: workplace partner costs of malaria prevention activities; household costs in purchasing LLINs from retail outlets; domestic resource mobilization (public sector financing and private investors). Annual ratios of projected non-donor expenditure to annualized donor costs were calculated for the 5 years post-project. Alternative scenarios were constructed to explore uncertainty around future consequences of the intervention., Results: The total donor financial cost of the 3-year PSMP project was USD 4,418,996. The average annual economic donor cost per LLIN distributed through retail sector and workplace partners was USD 21.17 and USD 7.55, respectively. Taking a 5-year post-project time horizon, the annualized donor investment costs were USD 735,805. In the best-case scenario, each USD of annualized donor investment led to USD 4.82 in annual projected non-donor expenditure by the fifth-year post-project. With increasingly conservative assumptions around the project consequences, this ratio decreased to 3.58, 2.16, 1.07 and 0.93 in the "very good", "good", "poor" and "worst" case scenarios, respectively. This suggests that in all but the worst-case scenario, donor investment would be exceeded by the non-donor expenditure it catalysed., Conclusions: The unit cost per net delivered was high, reflecting considerable initial investment costs and relatively low volumes of LLINs sold during the short duration of the project. However, taking a longer time horizon and broader perspective on the consequences of this complex catalytic intervention suggests that considerable domestic resources for malaria control could be mobilized, exceeding the value of the initial donor investment., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Expanding access to long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) is difficult if one is limited to government and donor financial resources. Private commercial markets could play a larger role in the continuous distribution of LLINs by offering differentiated LLINs to middle-class Ghanaians. This population segment has disposable income and may be willing to pay for LLINs that meet their preferences. Measuring the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for LLINs with specialty features that appeal to middle-class Ghanaians could help malaria control programmes understand what is the potential for private markets to work alongside fully subsidized LLIN distribution channels to assist in spreading this commodity., Methods: This study conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) including a real payment choice among a representative sample of 628 middle-income households living in Ashanti, Greater Accra, and Western regions in Ghana. The DCE presented 18 paired combinations of LLIN features and various prices. Respondents indicated which LLIN of each pair they preferred and whether they would purchase it. To validate stated willingness-to-pay, each participant was given a cash payment of $14.30 (GHS 65) that they could either keep or immediately spend on one of the LLIN products., Results: The households' average probability of purchasing a LLIN with specialty features was 43.8% (S.D. 0.07) and WTP was $7.48 (GHS34.0). The preferred LLIN features were conical or rectangular one-point-hang shape, queen size, and zipper entry. The average WTP for a LLIN with all the preferred features was $18.48 (GHS 84). In a scenario with the private LLIN market, the public sector outlay could be reduced by 39% and private LLIN sales would generate $8.1 million ($311 per every 100 households) in revenue in the study area that would support jobs for Ghanaian retailers, distributors, and importers of LLINs., Conclusion: Results support a scenario in which commercial markets for LLINs could play a significant role in improving access to LLINs for middle-income Ghanaians. Manufacturers interested could offer LLIN designs with features that are most highly valued among middle-income households in Ghana and maintain a retail price that could yield sufficient economic returns.

Background: Zanzibar has maintained malaria prevalence below 1% for the past decade, yet elimination remains elusive despite high coverage of core vector control interventions. As part of a study investigating the magnitude and drivers of residual transmission in Zanzibar, qualitative methods were utilized to better understand night time activities and sleeping patterns, individual and community-level risk perceptions, and malaria prevention practices., Methods: A total of 62 in-depth interviews were conducted with community members and local leaders across six sites on Unguja Island, Zanzibar. Twenty semi-structured community observations of night-time activities and special events were conducted to complement interview findings. Data were transcribed verbatim, coded, and analysed using a thematic approach., Results: Participants reported high levels of ITN use, but noted gaps in protection, particularly when outdoors or away from home. Routine household and community activities were common in evenings before bed and early mornings, while livelihood activities and special events lasted all or most of the night. Gender variation was reported, with men routinely spending more time away from home than women and children. Outdoor sleeping was reported during special events, such as weddings, funerals, and religious ceremonies. Participants described having difficulty preventing mosquito bites while outdoors, travelling, or away from home, and perceived higher risk of malaria infection during these times. Travel and migration emerged as a crucial issue and participants viewed seasonal workers coming from mainland Tanzania as more likely to have a malaria infection and less likely to be connected to prevention and treatment services in Zanzibar. Some community leaders reported taking the initiative to register seasonal workers coming into their community and linking them to testing and treatment services., Conclusions: Targeting malaria interventions effectively is critical and should be informed by a clear understanding of relevant human behaviour. These findings highlight malaria prevention gaps in Zanzibar, and the importance of identifying new approaches to complement current interventions and accelerate the final phases of malaria elimination. Development and deployment of complementary interventions should consider human behaviour, including gender norms, that can influence exposure to malaria vectors and prevention practices. Expansion of community-level programmes targeting travellers and seasonal workers should also be explored.

Background: A human-centered design approach, paired with traditional research methods, was used to explore consumer preferences of middle-class Ghanaians for a long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) to be designed for the private-sector retail market., Methods: In March 2017, we conducted 9 focus groups with urban and rural middle-class Ghanaians across Ashanti, Greater Accra, and Western regions. A total of 78 participants (51 adults and 27 boarding school students) were involved in the focus groups. Participants were asked for their input on topics related to malaria prevention, LLIN perceptions and use behavior, as well as general consumer preferences related to the home and bedroom. They participated in a variety of exercises, such as rank ordering their preferences of various accessories that might be bundled with an LLIN and interacting with actual LLINs of different sizes and designs. The data were gathered and analyzed, using micro-interlocutor analysis framework to capture emergent themes., Results: LLINs are currently available through free distribution channels, but in most accounts, participants reported that the nets were inconvenient, uncomfortable, and not aesthetically pleasing, thus they were undesirable to use. For example, several participants described the process of hanging as well as entering and exiting the LLIN as challenging, stressful, and/or tedious. In addition, use of LLINs was considered to make people feel even hotter in an already warm climate as well as to leave users feeling confined within a small space. Finally, many participants discussed how to improve the look of LLINs including suggestions for additional colors, shapes, and hanging mechanisms to make the LLINs more compatible with their desired bedroom and home décor. Based on the participants' responses, we concluded that they would prefer LLINs that better reflect contemporary sensibilities. We devised and tested different LLIN attributes to address these points, focusing on a more convenient way to hang the net, a more attractive silhouette, and a zipper that allows the user to enter and exit with ease while still maintaining a sealed, mosquito-free space. A separate discrete choice experiment confirmed the attractiveness of these attributes by capturing the target population's willingness to pay for LLINs with said preference-congruent attributes., Conclusion: Our human-centered design approach yielded consumer insights and preferences for novel LLIN designs for the private-sector retail market in Ghana. If this net design is successful, it could increase LLIN use among the middle class and catalyze the purchase of LLINs to support ongoing malaria control efforts., (© Kim et al.)

Background: Malaria cases and deaths decreased dramatically in recent years, largely due to effective vector control interventions. Persistence of transmission after good coverage has been achieved with high-quality vector control interventions, namely insecticide-treated nets or indoor residual spraying, poses a significant challenge to malaria elimination efforts. To understand when and where remaining transmission is occurring, it is necessary to look at vector and human behaviour, and where they overlap. To date, a review of human behaviour related to residual malaria transmission has not been conducted., Methods: Studies were identified through PubMed and Google Scholar. Hand searches were conducted for all references cited in articles identified through the initial search. The review was limited to English language articles published between 2000 and 2017. Publications with primary data from a malaria endemic setting in sub-Saharan Africa and a description of night time human behaviours were included., Results: Twenty-six publications were identified that met inclusion criteria. Study results fit into two broad categories: when and where people are exposed to malaria vectors and what people are doing at night that may increase their contact with malaria vectors. Among studies that quantified human-vector interaction, a majority of exposure occurred indoors during sleeping hours for unprotected individuals, with some variation across time, contexts, and vector species. Common night time activities across settings included household chores and entertainment during evening hours, as well as livelihood and large-scale socio-cultural events that can last throughout the night. Shifting sleeping patterns associated with travel, visitors, illness, farming practices, and outdoor sleeping, which can impact exposure and use of prevention measures, were described in some locations., Conclusions: While the importance of understanding human-vector interaction is well-established, relatively few studies have included human behaviour when measuring exposure to malaria vectors. Broader application of a standardized approach to measuring human-vector interaction could provide critical information on exposure across settings and over time. In-depth understanding of night time activities that occur during times when malaria vectors are active and barriers to prevention practices in different contexts should also be considered. This information is essential for targeting existing interventions and development and deployment of appropriate complementary prevention tools.

Background: The degree to which insecticide-treated net (ITN) supply accounts for age and gender disparities in ITN use among household members is unknown. This study explores the role of household ITN supply in the variation in ITN use among household members in sub-Saharan Africa., Methods: Data was from Malaria Indicator Surveys or Demographic and Health Surveys collected between 2011 and 2016 from 29 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The main outcome was ITN use the previous night. Other key variables included ITN supply (nets/household members), age and gender of household members. Analytical methods included logistic regressions and meta-regression., Results: Across countries, the median (range) of the percentage of households with enough ITNs was 30.7% (8.5-62.0%). Crude analysis showed a sinusoidal pattern in ITN use across age groups of household members, peaking at 0-4 years and again around 30-40 years and dipping among people between 5-14 and 50+ years. This sinusoidal pattern was more pronounced in households with not enough ITNs compared to those with enough ITNs. ITN use tended to be higher in females than males in households with not enough ITNs while use was comparable among females and males in households with enough ITNs. After adjusting for wealth quintile, residence and region, among households with not enough ITNs in all countries, the odds of ITN use were consistently higher among children under 5 years and non-pregnant women 15-49 years. Meta-regressions showed that across all countries, the mean adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of ITN use among children under 5 years, pregnant and non-pregnant women aged 15-49 years and people 50 years and above was significantly higher than among men aged 15-49 years. Among these household members, the relationship was attenuated when there were enough ITNs in the household (dropping 0.26-0.59 points) after adjusting for geographical zone, household ITN supply, population ITN access, and ITN use:access ratio. There was no significant difference in mean aOR of ITN use among school-aged children compared to men aged 15-49 years, regardless of household ITN supply., Conclusions: This study demonstrated that having enough ITNs in the household increases level of use and decreases existing disparities between age and gender groups. ITN distribution via mass campaigns and continuous distribution channels should be enhanced as needed to ensure that households have enough ITNs for all members, including men and school-aged children.

Background/methods: Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are the primary tool for malaria vector control in sub-Saharan Africa, and have been responsible for an estimated two-thirds of the reduction in the global burden of malaria in recent years. While the ultimate goal is high levels of ITN use to confer protection against infected mosquitoes, it is widely accepted that ITN use must be understood in the context of ITN availability. However, despite nearly a decade of universal coverage campaigns, no country has achieved a measured level of 80% of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people in a national survey. Eighty-six public datasets from 33 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (2005-2017) were used to explore the causes of failure to achieve universal coverage at the household level, understand the relationships between the various ITN indicators, and further define their respective programmatic utility., Results: The proportion of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people did not exceed 60% at the national level in any survey, except in Uganda's 2014 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS). At 80% population ITN access, the expected proportion of households with 1 ITN for 2 people is only 60% (p = 0.003 R 2  = 0.92), because individuals in households with some but not enough ITNs are captured as having access, but the household does not qualify as having 1 ITN for 2 people. Among households with 7-9 people, mean population ITN access was 41.0% (95% CI 36.5-45.6), whereas only 6.2% (95% CI 4.0-8.3) of these same households owned at least 1 ITN for 2 people. On average, 60% of the individual protection measured by the population access indicator is obscured when focus is put on the household "universal coverage" indicator. The practice of limiting households to a maximum number of ITNs in mass campaigns severely restricts the ability of large households to obtain enough ITNs for their entire family., Conclusions: The two household-level indicators-one representing minimal coverage, the other only 'universal' coverage-provide an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of personal protection and the success of an ITN distribution programme. Under current ITN distribution strategies, the global malaria community cannot expect countries to reach 80% of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people at a national level. When programmes assess the success of ITN distribution activities, population access to ITNs should be considered as the better indicator of "universal coverage," because it is based on people as the unit of analysis.

Background: In 2013, the World Health Organization recommended distribution through schools, health facilities, community health workers, and mass campaigns to maintain coverage with insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). We piloted school distribution in 3 local government areas (LGAs) of Cross River State, Nigeria., Methods: From January to March 2011, all 3 study sites participated in a mass ITN campaign. Baseline data were collected in June 2012 (N=753 households) and school distribution began afterward. One ITN per student was distributed to 4 grades once a year in public schools. Obubra LGA distributed ITNs in 2012, 2013, and 2014 and Ogoja LGA in 2013 and 2014 while Ikom LGA served as a comparison site. Pregnant women in all sites were eligible to receive ITNs through standard antenatal care (ANC). Endline survey data (N=1,450 households) were collected in March 2014. Data on ITN ownership, population access to an ITN, and ITN use were gathered and analyzed. Statistical analysis used contingency tables and chi-squared tests for univariate analysis, and a concentration index was calculated to assess equity in ITN ownership., Results: Between baseline and endline, household ownership of at least 1 ITN increased in the intervention sites, from 50% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 44.7, 54.3) to 76% (95% CI: 71.2, 81.0) in Ogoja and from 51% (95% CI: 35.3, 66.7) to 78% (95% CI: 71.5, 83.1) in Obubra, as did population access to ITN, from 36% (95% CI: 32.0, 39.5) to 53% (95% CI: 48.0, 58.0) in Ogoja and from 34% (95% CI: 23.2, 45.6) to 55% in Obubra (95% CI: 48.4, 60.9). In contrast, ITN ownership declined in the comparison site, from 64% (95% CI: 56.4, 70.8) to 43% (95% CI: 37.4, 49.4), as did population ITN access, from 47% (95% CI: 40.0, 53.7) to 26% (95% CI: 21.9, 29.9). Ownership of school ITNs was nearly as equitable (concentration index 0.06 [95% CI: 0.02, 0.11]) as for campaign ITNs (-0.03 [95% CI: -0.08, 0.02]), and there was no significant oversupply or undersupply among households with ITNs. Schools were the most common source of ITNs at endline and very few households (<2%) had nets from both school and ANC., Conclusion: ITN distribution through schools and ANC provide complementary reach and can play an effective role in achieving and maintaining universal coverage. More research is needed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such continuous distribution channels in combination with, or as a potential replacement for, subsequent mass campaigns., (© Acosta et al.)

Background: Continuous distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) has now been accepted as one way of sustaining ITN universal coverage. Community-based channels offer an interesting means of delivering ITNs to households to sustain universal ITN coverage. The objective of this study was to provide proof of concept for this channel., Methods: A 9-month, community-based, distribution pilot was implemented beginning 1 year after a mass campaign in Lainya County, South Sudan from 2012 to 2013. Following social mobilization, community members could request an ITN from a net coupon holder. Eligibility criteria included having lost an ITN, giving birth outside of the health facility, or not having enough ITNs for all household members. After verification, households could exchange the coupon for an ITN at a distribution point. The evaluation was a pre/post design using representative household surveys with two-stage cluster sampling and a sample size of 600 households per survey., Results: At endline, 78% of respondents were aware of the scheme and 89% of those also received an ITN through community-based distribution. Population access to ITNs nearly doubled, from 38% at baseline to 66% after the pilot. Household ownership of any ITN and enough ITNs (1 for 2 people) also increased significantly, from 66 to 82% and 19 to 46%, respectively. Community-based distribution was the only source of ITNs for 53.4% of households. The proportion of the population using an ITN last night increased from 22.7% at baseline to 53.9% at endline. A logistic regression model indicates that although behaviour change communication was positively associated with an increase in ITN use, access to enough nets was the greatest determinant of use., Conclusions: ITN access and use improved significantly in the study area during the pilot, coming close to universal coverage targets. This pilot serves as proof of concept for the community-based distribution methodology implemented as a mechanism to sustain ITN universal coverage. Longer periods of implementation should be evaluated to determine whether community-based distribution can successfully maintain ITN coverage beyond the short term, and reach all wealth quintiles equitably.

Concerted efforts from national and international partners have scaled up malaria control interventions, including insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, diagnostics, prompt and effective treatment of malaria cases, and intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This scale-up warrants an assessment of its health impact to guide future efforts and investments; however, measuring malaria-specific mortality and the overall impact of malaria control interventions remains challenging. In 2007, Roll Back Malaria's Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group proposed a theoretical framework for evaluating the impact of full-coverage malaria control interventions on morbidity and mortality in high-burden SSA countries. Recently, several evaluations have contributed new ideas and lessons to strengthen this plausibility design. This paper harnesses that new evaluation experience to expand the framework, with additional features, such as stratification, to examine subgroups most likely to experience improvement if control programs are working; the use of a national platform framework; and analysis of complete birth histories from national household surveys. The refined framework has shown that, despite persisting data challenges, combining multiple sources of data, considering potential contributions from both fundamental and proximate contextual factors, and conducting subnational analyses allows identification of the plausible contributions of malaria control interventions on malaria morbidity and mortality.

Background: Continuous distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) is thought to be an effective mechanism to maintain ITN ownership and access between or in the absence of mass campaigns, but evidence is limited. A community-based ITN distribution pilot was implemented and evaluated in Toamasina II District, Madagascar, to assess this new channel for continuous ITN distribution., Methods: Beginning 9 months after the December 2012 mass campaign, a community-based distribution pilot ran for an additional 9 months, from September 2013 to June 2014. Households requested ITN coupons from community agents in their village. After verification by the agents, households exchanged the coupon for an ITN at a distribution point. The evaluation was a two-stage cluster survey with a sample size of 1125 households. Counterfactual ITN ownership and access were calculated by excluding ITNs received through the community pilot., Results: At the end of the pilot, household ownership of any ITN was 96.5%, population access to ITN was 81.5 and 61.5% of households owned at least 1 ITN for every 2 people. Without the ITNs provided through the community channel, household ownership of any ITN was estimated at 74.6%, population access to an ITN at 55.5%, and households that owned at least 1 ITN for 2 people at only 34.7%, 18 months after the 2012 campaign. Ownership of community-distributed ITNs was higher among the poorest wealth quintiles. Over 80% of respondents felt the community scheme was fair and simple to use., Conclusions: Household ITN ownership and population ITN access exceeded RBM targets after the 9-month community distribution pilot. The pilot successfully provided coupons and ITNs to households requesting them, particularly for the least poor wealth quintiles, and the scheme was well-perceived by communities. Further research is needed to determine whether community-based distribution can sustain ITN ownership and access over the long term, how continuous availability of ITNs affects household net replacement behaviour, and whether community-based distribution is cost-effective when combined with mass campaigns, or if used with other continuous channels instead of mass campaigns.

Background: The Tanzania National Voucher Scheme (TNVS) was a public private partnership managed by the Ministry of Health that provided pregnant women and infants with highly subsidized (long-lasting) insecticide-treated nets between 2004 and 2014. It was implemented in the context of the National Insecticide Treated Nets (NATNETS) Programme and was the main keep up strategy for vulnerable populations., Case Description: The programme design was adjusted considerably over time to incorporate new evidence, shifting public health policies, and changing donor priorities. Three TNVS models can be distinguished: (1) the fixed discount; (2) the fixed top-up; (3) the hybrid voucher model. The changes improved equity and effectiveness, but also had a profound effect on how the programme was managed and implemented., Results: The TNVS reached the majority of beneficiaries with vouchers, and significantly increased household ownership and use of LLINs. While two mass distribution campaigns implemented between 2009 and 2011 achieved universal coverage and equity, the TNVS ensured continuous protection of the vulnerable populations before, during and after the campaigns. The TNVS stimulated and maintained a large national retail network which managed the LLIN supply chain., Discussion and Lessons Learned: The effectiveness of the TNVS was a function of several interdependent factors, including the supply chain of vouchers through the public health system; the supply chain of nets in the commercial sector; the demand for nets from voucher recipients; management and risk mitigation measures; and the influence of global and donor objectives., Conclusion: The TNVS was a highly innovative and globally influential programme, which stimulated the thinking around effectively and equitably distributing ITNs, and contributed directly to the evolution of global policy. It was a fundamental component of the NATNETS programme which protected a malaria-vulnerable population for over a decade.

Background: In addition to mass distribution campaigns, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the continuous distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) to all pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) and all infants attending the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) services in countries implementing mosquito nets for malaria control. Countries report LLIN distribution data to the WHO annually. For this analysis, these data were used to assess policy and practice in implementing these recommendations and to compare the numbers of LLINs available through ANC and EPI services with the numbers of women and children attending these services., Methods: For each reporting country in sub-Saharan Africa, the presence of a reported policy for LLIN distribution through ANC and EPI was reviewed. Prior to inclusion in the analysis the completeness of data was assessed in terms of the numbers of LLINs distributed through all channels (campaigns, EPI, ANC, other). For each country with adequate data, the numbers of LLINs reportedly distributed by national programmes to ANC was compared to the number of women reportedly attending ANC at least once; the ratio between these two numbers was used as an indicator of LLIN availability at ANC services. The same calculations were repeated for LLINs distributed through EPI to produce the corresponding LLIN availability through this distribution channel., Results: Among 48 malaria-endemic countries in Africa, 33 malaria programmes reported adopting policies of ANC-based continuous distribution of LLINs, and 25 reported adopting policies of EPI-based distribution. Over a 3-year period through 2012, distribution through ANC accounted for 9 % of LLINs distributed, and LLINs distributed through EPI accounted for 4 %. The LLIN availability ratios achieved were 55 % through ANC and 34 % through EPI. For 38 country programmes reporting on LLIN distribution, data to calculate LLIN availability through ANC and EPI was available for 17 and 16, respectively., Conclusions: These continuous LLIN distribution channels appear to be under-utilized, especially EPI-based distribution. However, quality data from more countries are needed for consistent and reliable programme performance monitoring. A greater focus on routine data collection, monitoring and reporting on LLINs distributed through both ANC and EPI can provide insight into both strengths and weaknesses of continuous distribution, and improve the effectiveness of these delivery channels.

Background: The World Health Organization recommends that long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) for malaria prevention should be distributed continuously through antenatal care (ANC) and the expanded programme on immunization (EPI) in addition to mass campaigns. Despite these recommendations, the continuous distribution (CD) of LLIN distribution through ANC and EPI is not policy in many countries, and where there is a policy, implementation is incomplete. This study aims to identify the operational strengths and weaknesses of LLINs CD in four country programmes in sub-Saharan Africa., Methods: A qualitative rapid assessment process was conducted using semi-structured individual and group interviews at the national, sub-national, and facility level in four countries. Seventy participants were included (23 in Kenya, 13 in Malawi, 18 in Mali and 16 in Rwanda), drawn from malaria programmes, ANC and EPI programmes, government logistics units, and partner organizations. Interviews were structured to identify themes within a health systems approach. Policy and guideline documents and data collection tools were reviewed as a means of triangulation. Data analysis focused on pre-determined and emergent themes., Results: The four countries used a wide variety of management systems for the supply of LLINs to routine services. Issues related to quantification, supply logistics and data collection all contributed to stock-outs at facility level. None of the four countries had guidelines for responding to stock-outs or system enabling local staff to request additional supplies of LLINs. In all four countries, data collection of LLIN distribution was incomplete or absent at facility level, and such data were not used for planning. Training of staff at the facility level was implemented less frequently than national and sub-national staff would have preferred. Logistics systems, independent of other commodities, and in-country partner support strengthened the continuous distribution of LLINs., Conclusions: In these countries, stock-outs were the most important single obstacle to the smooth operations of continuous LLIN distribution. Stock-outs can be avoided if facilities have the capacity to place orders for LLIN resupply as needed. Revised data collection and management systems for LLIN distribution have the potential to increase coverage of the target populations by improving LLIN stock-out response, and strengthening monitoring and evaluation of distribution.

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for malaria control are widespread but coverage remains inadequate. We developed a Bayesian model using data from 102 national surveys, triangulated against delivery data and distribution reports, to generate year-by-year estimates of four ITN coverage indicators. We explored the impact of two potential 'inefficiencies': uneven net distribution among households and rapid rates of net loss from households. We estimated that, in 2013, 21% (17%-26%) of ITNs were over-allocated and this has worsened over time as overall net provision has increased. We estimated that rates of ITN loss from households are more rapid than previously thought, with 50% lost after 23 (20-28) months. We predict that the current estimate of 920 million additional ITNs required to achieve universal coverage would in reality yield a lower level of coverage (77% population access). By improving efficiency, however, the 920 million ITNs could yield population access as high as 95%.

Background: Despite the availability of effective preventive measures, including intermittent preventive treatment for malaria during pregnancy (IPTp), malaria continues to cause substantial disease burden among pregnant women in malaria-endemic areas. IPTp coverage remains low, despite high antenatal care (ANC) attendance. To highlight areas of potential improvement, trends in IPTp coverage were assessed over time, missed opportunities to deliver IPTp at ANC were quantified, and delivery of IPTp was compared to that of tetanus toxoid (TT)., Methods: Data from 58 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2003 and 2013 in 31 sub-Saharan African countries, with relevant questions on IPTp, ANC and TT were used to assess ANC attendance, and IPTp and TT delivery. A missed opportunity for IPTp delivery is an ANC visit at which IPTp could have been delivered according to policy but was not., Results: The proportion of pregnant women who received ≥2 doses of IPTp increased in surveyed countries from nearly zero before to a median of 29.6% (IQR 20.1-42.5%) seven or more years after IPTp policy adoption. ANC attendance was high (median 76.6% reported ≥3 visits); however, even seven or more years post policy adoption, a median of 72.9% (IQR 58.4-79.5%) ANC visits were missed opportunities to deliver IPTp. Among primigravid women, a median of 61.5% (IQR 50.9-72.9%) received two doses of TT; delivery of recommended TT exceeded IPTp in all but one surveyed country., Conclusions: IPTp coverage measured by household surveys is unsatisfactorily low, even many years after policy adoption. The many missed opportunities to deliver IPTp suggest that deficiencies in delivery at ANC are a significant contributing factor to the low coverage levels. High levels of TT delivery indicate capacity to deliver preventive measures at ANC. Further research is required to determine the factors driving the discrepancies between IPTp and TT coverage, and how these may be addressed to improve IPTp coverage.

Background: The importance of net durability and the average useful life of a net is increasingly recognized as one of the critical factors that determine how often nets need to be replaced. A study to assess the effect of a net care and repair behaviour change communication (BCC) programme on net durability was conducted in one district in Eastern Uganda with a district in a neighbouring region serving as a comparison. Both districts had received LLINs in September of 2012., Methods: The intervention was comprised of radio programmes, school and community events. Two-stage cluster sampling household surveys to assess net condition, exposure to BCC messages, and attitudes towards net care and repair were conducted in both districts at baseline (2-3 months post net distribution) and endline (20-21 months post distribution). Net condition was assessed using the proportionate hole index, with nets being classified as either serviceable or too torn., Results: The intervention led to an additional 31.2 % increased exposure to net care and repair messages in the intervention district. Respondents in the intervention district had a more positive attitude towards net care and repair (32 % of respondents were classified as having a very positive attitude compared to 10 % in the comparison district), which was positively associated with the number of channels through which messages had been received (P < 0.001). Nets belonging to respondents with a very positive attitude were more often categorized as serviceable (80.2 %) compared to respondents with a poor/average attitude (66.4 %; odds ratio: 2.05, P = 0.028); however, this was only observed for the net brand with the greater physical integrity. Additionally, socio-economic status was a significant predictor of net condition. Although nets in the intervention district had significantly more repairs done per net, the act of repairing alone did not improve net condition., Conclusions: In conclusion, the evaluation showed that the BCC programme resulted in improved knowledge and attitudes towards care and repair, which impacted positively on net condition. Repairs alone were not sufficient to improve net condition. Additional research on which care behaviours and attitudes are most associated with improved net condition would help BCC planners hone their campaigns.

Background: Study objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of commonly used post-campaign hang-up visits on the hanging and use of campaign nets., Methods: A cluster-randomized trial was carried out in Uganda following an ITN distribution campaign. Five clusters (parishes, consisting of ∼11 villages each) were randomly selected for each of the three study arms with between 7,534 and 9,401 households per arm. Arm 1 received one hang-up visit, while Arm 2 received two visits by volunteers four and seven months after the campaign. Visits consisted of assistance hanging the net and education on net use. The control arm was only exposed to messages during the campaign itself. Three cross-sectional surveys with a two-stage cluster sampling design, representative of the study populations, were carried out to capture the two key outcome variables of net hanging and ITN use. Sample size was calculated to detect at least a 15 percentage-points change in net use, and was 1811 at endline. The analysis used an intention-to-treat approach., Findings: Both hanging and use of ITN increased during follow-up in a similar way in all three study arms. The proportion of the population using an ITN the previous night was 64.0% (95% CI 60.8, 67.2), for one additional visit, 68.2% (63.8, 72.2) for two visits and 64.0% (59.4, 68.5) for the control. The proportion of households with all campaign nets hanging increased from 55.7% to 72.5% at endline (p<0.0005 for trend), with no difference between study arms. Financial cost per household visited was estimated as USD 2.33 for the first visit and USD 2.24 for the second., Conclusions: Behavior change communication provided during the campaign or through other channels was sufficient to induce high levels of net hanging and use and additional "hang-up" activities were not cost-effective.

Background: Despite targeted indoor residual spraying (IRS) over a six-year period and free mass distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), malaria rates in northern Ghana remain high. Outdoor sleeping and other night-time social, cultural and economic activities that increase exposure to infective mosquito bites are possible contributors. This study was designed to document these phenomena through direct observation, and to explore the context in which they occur., Methods: During the late dry season months of February and March 2014, study team members carried out continuous household observations from dusk to dawn in one village in Ghana's Northern Region and one in Upper West Region. In-depth interviews with health workers and community residents helped supplement observational findings., Results: Study team members completed observations of 182 individuals across 24 households, 12 households per site. Between the two sites, they interviewed 14 health workers, six community health volunteers and 28 community residents. In early evening, nearly all study participants were observed to be outdoors and active. From 18.00-23.00 hours, socializing, night school, household chores, and small-scale economic activities were common. All-night funerals, held outdoors and attended by large numbers of community members, were commonly reported and observed. Outdoor sleeping was frequently documented at both study sites, with 42% of the study population sleeping outdoors at some time during the night. While interviewees mentioned bed net use as important to malaria prevention, observed use was low for both indoor and outdoor sleeping. Net access within households was 65%, but only 17% of those with access used a net at any time during the night. Participants cited heat as the primary barrier and reported higher net use during the rainy season., Discussion: Outdoor sleeping and other night-time activities were extensive, and could significantly increase malaria risk. These findings suggest that indoor-oriented control measures such as ITNs and IRS are insufficient to eliminate malaria in this setting, especially given the low net use observed. Development and evaluation of complementary outdoor control strategies should be prioritized. A research agenda is proposed to quantify the relative risk of outdoor night-time activities and test potential vector control interventions that might reduce that risk.

Background: While some data on net durability have been accumulating in recent years, including formative qualitative research on attitudes towards net care and repair, no data are available on how the durability of a net is influenced by behaviour of net maintenance, care and repair, and whether behavioural change interventions (BCC) could substantially impact on the average useful life of the net., Methods: The study used an intervention-control design with before-after assessment through repeated cross-sectional household surveys with two-stage cluster sampling following Nasarawa State's December 2010 mass campaign. All campaign nets were 100-denier polyester, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN). Baseline, midline, and endline surveys occurred at one-year intervals, in March 2012, March 2013, and April 2014, respectively. Outcome measures were the proportion of confirmed campaign nets with observed repairs, and the proportion in serviceable condition, measured with proportionate hole index (pHI) and according to WHO guidelines., Results: For all respondents, exposure to BCC messages was strongly correlated with increased positive attitude towards care and repair, and increases in attitude were positively correlated with observed net repairs, and with the proportion of nets in serviceable condition. In a multivariate regression model, positive care and repair attitude (OR 6.17 p = 0.001) and level of exposure (1 source: OR 4.00 p = 0.000; 3 sources: OR 9.34 p = 0.000) remained the most significant predictors of net condition, controlling for background and environmental factors. Nets that were tied up had 2.70 higher odds of being in serviceable condition (p = 0.001), while repairs made to nets were not sufficient to improve their pHI category. Estimated median net lifespan was approximately one full year longer for nets in households with a positive compared to a negative attitude., Conclusion: Exposure to multiple channels of a comprehensive BCC intervention was associated with improved attitude scores, and with improved net condition at endline. It is possible for BCC interventions to change both attitudes and behaviours, and to have an important effect on overall median net lifespan. Care and repair messages are easily incorporated into existing malaria BCC platforms, and will help contribute to improved net condition, providing, in principle, more protection from malaria.

Background: SBCC campaigns are designed to act on cognitive, social and emotional factors at the individual or community level. The combination of these factors, referred to as 'ideation', play a role in determining behaviour by reinforcing and confirming decisions about a particular health topic. This study introduces ideation theory and mediation analysis as a way to evaluate the impact of a malaria SBCC campaign in Tanzania, to determine whether exposure to a communication programme influenced universal coverage through mediating ideational variables., Methods: A household survey in three districts where community change agents (CCAs) were active was conducted to collect information on ITN use, number of ITNs in the household, and perceptions about ITN use and ownership. Variables relating to attitudes and beliefs were combined to make 'net ideation'. Using an ideational framework, a mediation analysis was conducted to see the impact exposure to a CCA only, mass media and community (M & C) messaging only, or exposure to both, had on household universal coverage, through the mediating variable net ideation., Results: All three levels of exposure (CCA, M & C messaging, or exposure to both) were significantly associated with increased net ideation (CCA: 0.283, 95% CI: 0.136-0.429, p-value: <0.001; M & C: 0.128, 95% CI: 0.032-0.334, p-value: 0.018; both: 0.376, 95% CI: 0.170-0.580, p-value: <0.001). Net ideation also significantly increased the odds of having universal coverage (CCAOR: 1.265, 95% CI: 1.118-1.433, p-value: <0.001; M & COR: 1.264, 95% CI: 1.117-1.432, p-value: <0.001, bothOR: 1.260, 95% CI: 1.114-1.428, p-value: <0.001). There were no significant direct effects between any exposure and universal coverage when controlling for net ideation., Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that mediation analysis is an applicable new tool to assess SBCC campaigns. Ideation as a mediator of the effects of communication exposure on household universal coverage has implications for designing SBCC to support both mass and continuous distribution efforts, since both heavily rely on consumer participation to obtain and maintain ITNs. Such systems can be strengthened by SBCC programming, generating demand through improving social norms about net ownership and use, perceived benefits of nets, and other behavioural constructs.

Background: The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001-2011., Methods: Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001-2005) and post-interventions (2006-2011) periods., Findings: The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51% in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87% during 2006-2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44-79%) and SPR by 37% (CI, 20%-51%) compared to the level predicted by pre-intervention trends. In children under 5 years of age, malaria admissions and deaths fell by 81% (CI, 47%-94%) and 73% (CI, 48%-86%) respectively. Optimal breakpoint of the trendlines occurred between January and June 2006, consistent with the timing of malaria interventions. Over the same period, non-malaria cases and deaths either increased or remained unchanged, the number of malaria diagnostic tests performed reflected the decline in malaria cases, and rainfall remained at levels supportive of malaria transmission., Conclusions: Malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopian hospitals decreased substantially during 2006-2011 in conjunction with scale-up of malaria interventions. The decrease could not be accounted for by changes in hospital visits, malaria diagnostic testing or rainfall. However, given the history of variable malaria transmission in Ethiopia, more data would be required to exclude the possibility that the decrease is due to other factors.

Over the past decade, efforts to increase the use of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) have relied primarily on the routine distribution of bed nets to pregnant women attending antenatal services or on the mass distribution of bed nets to households. While these distributions have increased the proportion of households owning ITNs and the proportion of people sleeping under an ITN the night prior to the survey, the role that behaviour-change communication (BCC) plays in the use of ITNs remains unquantified.This paper uses two analytic approaches, propensity score matching and treatment effect modelling, to examine the relationship between exposure to the BCC messages and the use of a bed net the previous night, using the 2010 Zambia Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS).When matched on similar propensity scores, a statistically significant 29.5 percentage point difference in ITN use is observed between exposed and unexposed respondents. Fifty-nine per cent of unexposed respondents reported sleeping under an ITN the previous night, compared to 88% of the exposed respondents. A smaller but similarly significant difference between exposed and unexposed groups, 12.7 percentage points, is observed in the treatment effect model, which also controls for the number of bed nets owned by the household and exposure to malaria information from health workers.Using either approach, a statistically significant effect of exposure to BCC messages on a woman's use of an ITN was found. Propensity score matching has the advantage of using statistically-matched pairs and relying on the assumption that given the measured covariates, outcome is independent of treatment assignment (conditional independence assumption), thereby allowing us to mimic a randomized control trial. Results from propensity score matching indicate that BCC messages account for a 29-percentage point increase in the use of ITNs among Zambian households that already own at least one ITN.These analyses serve to illustrate that BCC programmes can contribute to national programmes seeking to increase the use of ITNs inside the home. They also offer a viable approach for evaluating the effectiveness of other BCC programmes promoting behaviour that will reduce malaria transmission or mitigate the consequences of infection.

Background: Malaria in pregnancy is a major public health concern, contributing to roughly 11% of neonatal deaths and to 25% of all maternal deaths in some parts of the world. The World Health Organization has recommended priority interventions for malaria during pregnancy, including use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), but net distribution has shifted recently to a universal coverage paradigm rather than one targeting vulnerable populations., Methods: To determine whether and to what extent pregnant women are prioritized within the household for ITN use, we assessed national survey data from 2009-2013 in 10 African countries. Proportion of pregnant women who slept under an ITN the previous night and 95% confidence intervals were calculated and compared between countries. Within-country logistic regression examined whether pregnancy was significantly associated with ITN use the previous night compared with other risk groups, and the predicted probability of net use for each risk group was calculated holding other covariates constant., Results: A median 58% of households reported owning at least 1 ITN. On average, across all 10 countries, 35% of pregnant women in households with at least 1 ITN used a net. Households with universal coverage (at least 1 ITN per 2 people) had higher levels of net use among all family members; for example, 79% of pregnant women, on average, used a net in such households. In all countries, the predicted probability of ITN use by pregnant women was significantly higher than the probability of net use by most other household members except non-pregnant women of reproductive age., Conclusion: These findings suggest that both pregnant women and non-pregnant women of reproductive age are being prioritized within the household for net use. However, behavior change communication strategies are needed to achieve ITN use goals for pregnant women.

Global commitment to malaria control has greatly increased over the last decade. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have become a core intervention of national malaria control strategies and over 450 million nets were distributed in sub-Saharan Africa between 2008 and 2012. Despite the impressive gains made as a result of increased investment in to malaria control, such gains remain fragile. Existing funding commitments for LLINs in the pipeline to 2016 were collated for 40 sub-Saharan African countries. The population-based model NetCALC was used to estimate the potential LLIN coverage achievable with these commitments and identify remaining gaps, and the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to estimate likely consequences for mortality impact if these gaps remain unfilled. Overall, countries calculated a total need of 806 million LLINs for 2013-16. Current funding commitments meet just over half of this need, leaving approximately 374 million LLINs unfunded, most of which are needed to maintain coverage in 2015 and 2016. An estimated additional 938,500 child lives (uncertainty range: 559,400-1,364,200) could be saved from 2013 through 2016 with existing funding (relative to 2009 LLIN coverage taken as the 'baseline' for this analysis); if the funding gap were closed this would increase to 1,180,500 lives saved (uncertainty range: 707,000-1,718,900). Overall, the funding gap equates to approximately 242,000 avoidable malaria-attributable deaths amongst under-fives. Substantial additional resources will need to be mobilized to meet the full LLIN need of sub-Saharan countries to maintain universal coverage. Unless these resources are mobilized, the impressive gains made to date will not be sustained and tens of thousands of avoidable child deaths will occur.

Background: Until recently only two indicators were used to evaluate malaria prevention with insecticide-treated nets (ITN): "proportion of households with any ITN" and "proportion of the population using an ITN last night". This study explores the potential of the expanded set of indicators recommended by the Roll Back Malaria Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group (MERG) for comprehensive analysis of universal coverage with ITN by applying them to the Nigeria 2010 Malaria Indicator Survey data., Methods: The two additional indicators of "proportion of households with at least one ITN for every two people" and "proportion of population with access to an ITN within the household" were calculated as recommended by MERG. Based on the estimates for each of the four ITN indicators three gaps were calculated: i) households with no ITN, ii) households with any but not enough ITN, iii) population with access to ITN not using it. In addition, coverage with at least one ITN at community level was explored by applying Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) decision rules to the cluster level of the data. All outcomes were analysed by household background characteristics and whether an ITN campaign had recently been done., Results: While the proportion of households with any ITN was only 42% overall, it was 75% in areas with a recent mass campaign and in these areas 66% of communities had coverage of 80% or better. However, the campaigns left a considerable intra-household ownership gap with 66% of households with any ITN not having enough for every family member. In contrast, the analysis comparing actual against potential use showed that ITN utilization was good overall with only 19% of people with access not using the ITN, but with a significant difference between the North, where use was excellent (use gap 11%), and the South (use gap 36%) indicating the need for enhanced behaviour change communication., Conclusions: The expanded ITN indicators to assess universal coverage provide strong tools for a comprehensive system effectiveness analysis that produces clear, actionable evidence of progress as well as the need for specific additional interventions clearly differentiating between gaps in ownership and use.

Background: To control malaria, the Rwandan government and its partners distributed insecticide-treated nets (ITN) and made artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) widely available from 2005 onwards. The impact of these interventions on malaria cases, admissions and deaths was assessed using data from district hospitals and household surveys., Methods: District records of ITN and ACT distribution were reviewed. Malaria and non-malaria indictors in 30 district hospitals were ascertained from surveillance records. Trends in cases, admissions and deaths for 2000 to 2010 were assessed by segmented log-linear regression, adjusting the effect size for time trends during the pre-intervention period, 2000-2005. Changes were estimated by comparing trends in post-intervention (2006-2010) with that of pre-intervention (2000-2005) period. All-cause deaths in children under-five in household surveys of 2005 and 2010 were also reviewed to corroborate with the trends of deaths observed in hospitals., Results: The proportion of the population potentially protected by ITN increased from nearly zero in 2005 to 38% in 2006, and 76% in 2010; no major health facility stock-outs of ACT were recorded following their introduction in 2006. In district hospitals, after falling during 2006-2008, confirmed malaria cases increased in 2009 coinciding with decreased potential ITN coverage and declined again in 2010 following an ITN distribution campaign. For all age groups, from the pre-intervention period, microscopically confirmed cases declined by 72%, (95% Confidence Interval [CI], 12-91%) in 2010, slide positivity rate declined 58%, (CI, 47%-68%), malaria inpatient cases declined 76% (CI, 49%-88%); and malaria deaths declined 47% (CI, 47%-81%). In children below five years of age, malaria inpatients decreased 82% (CI, 61%-92%) and malaria hospital deaths decreased 77% (CI, 40%-91%). Concurrently, outpatient cases, admissions and deaths due to non-malaria diseases in all age groups either increased or remained unchanged. Rainfall and temperature remained favourable for malaria transmission. The annual all-cause mortality in children under-five in household surveys declined from 152 per 1,000 live births during 2001-2005, to 76 per 1,000 live births in 2006-2010 (55% decline). The five-year cumulative number of all-cause deaths in hospital declined 28% (8,051 to 5,801) during the same period., Conclusions: A greater than 50% decline in confirmed malaria cases, admissions and deaths at district hospitals in Rwanda since 2005 followed a marked increase in ITN coverage and use of ACT. The decline occurred among both children under-five and in those five years and above, while hospital utilization increased and suitable conditions for malaria transmission persisted. Declines in malaria indicators in children under 5 years were more striking than in the older age groups. The resurgence in cases associated with decreased ITN coverage in 2009 highlights the need for sustained high levels of anti-malarial interventions in Rwanda and other malaria endemic countries.

Background: The use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) is one of the principal interventions to prevent malaria in young children, reducing episodes of malaria by 50% and child deaths by one fifth. Prioritizing young children for net use is important to achieve mortality reductions, particularly during transmission seasons., Methods: Households were followed up weekly from January through June 2009 to track net use among children under seven under as well as caretakers. Net use rates for children and caretakers in net-owning households were calculated by dividing the number of person-weeks of net use by the number of person-weeks of follow-up. Use was stratified by age of the child or caretaker status. Determinants of ownership and of use were assessed using multivariate models., Results: Overall, 60.1% of the households reported owning a bed net at least once during the study period. Among net owners, use rates remained high during and after the rainy season. Rates of use per person-week decreased as the age of the child rose from 0 to six years old; at ages 0-23 months and 24-35 months use rates per person-week were 0.93 and 0.92 respectively during the study period, while for children ages 3 and 4 use rates per person-week were 0.86 and 0.80. For children ages 5-6 person-week ratios dropped to 0.55. This represents an incidence rate ratio of 1.67 for children ages 0-23 months compared to children aged 5-6. Caretakers had use rates similar to those of children age 0-35 months. Having fewer children under age seven in the household also appeared to positively impact net use rates for individual children., Conclusions: In this area of Tanzania, net use is very high among net-owning households, with no variability either at the beginning or end of the rainy season high transmission period. The youngest children are prioritized for sleeping under the net and caretakers also have high rates of use. Given the high use rates, increasing the number of nets available in the household is likely to boost use rates by older children.

Background: Long-lasting insecticidal nets are an effective tool for malaria prevention, and "universal coverage" with such nets is increasingly the goal of national malaria control programmes. However, national level campaigns in several countries have run out of nets in the course of distribution, indicating a problem in the method used to estimate the quantity needed., Presentation of Hypothesis: A major reason for the shortfall in estimation is the mismatch between the quantification factor used to plan procurement and the allocation algorithm used at community level, in particular the effect of needing to add an additional net to households with an odd number of inhabitants. To solve this problem a revised quantification factor is suggested., Testing Hypothesis: Based on data from a broad range of household surveys across Africa, the effect of odd-numbered households on numbers of nets distributed is estimated via two frequently used allocation methods. The impact of these algorithms on the proportion of households reaching a person to net ratio of 2:1, a frequently used marker of universal coverage is then calculated., Implications: In order to avoid stock-outs of nets during national coverage campaigns, it is recommended to use a quantification factor of 1.78 people per net, with an additional allocation factor suggested to account for other common problems at the community level resulting in a final recommended ratio of 1.60 people per net. It is also recommend that community level allocation procedures be aligned with procurement estimates to reduce shortages of nets during campaign distributions. These analyses should enable programme managers to make evidence-based decisions and support a more efficient and effective use of LLIN distribution campaign resources.

The global health community is interested in the health impact of the billions of dollars invested to fight malaria in Africa. A recent publication used trends in malaria cases and deaths based on health facility records to evaluate the impact of malaria control efforts in Rwanda and Ethiopia. Although the authors demonstrate the use of facility-based data to estimate the impact of malaria control efforts, they also illustrate several pitfalls of such analyses that should be avoided, minimized, or actively acknowledged. A critique of this analysis is presented because many country programmes and donors are interested in evaluating programmatic impact with facility-based data. Key concerns related to: 1) clarifying the objective of the analysis; 2) data validity; 3) data representativeness; 4) the exploration of trends in factors that could influence malaria rates and thus confound the relationship between intervention scale-up and the observed changes in malaria outcomes; 5) the analytic approaches, including small numbers of patient outcomes, selective reporting of results, and choice of statistical and modeling methods; and 6) internal inconsistency on the strength and interpretation of the data. In conclusion, evaluations of malaria burden reduction using facility-based data could be very helpful, but those data should be collected, analysed, and interpreted with care, transparency, and a full recognition of their limitations.

Objective: To describe an approach for evaluating the impact of malaria control efforts on malaria-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, where disease-specific mortality trends usually cannot be measured directly and most malaria deaths occur among young children., Methods: Methods for evaluating changes in malaria-associated mortality are examined; advantages and disadvantages are presented., Results: All methods require a plausibility argument-i.e., an assumption that mortality reductions can be attributed to programmatic efforts if improvements are found in steps of the causal pathway between intervention scale-up and mortality trends. As different methods provide complementary information, they can be used together. We recommend following trends in the coverage of malaria control interventions, other factors influencing childhood mortality, malaria-associated morbidity (especially anaemia), and all-cause childhood mortality. This approach reflects decreases in malaria's direct and indirect mortality burden and can be examined in nearly all countries. Adding other information can strengthen the plausibility argument: trends in indicators of malaria transmission, information from demographic surveillance systems and sentinel sites where malaria diagnostics are systematically used, and verbal autopsies linked to representative household surveys. Health facility data on malaria deaths have well-recognized limitations; however, in specific circumstances, they could produce reliable trends. Model-based predictions can help describe changes in malaria-specific burden and assist with program management and advocacy., Conclusions: Despite challenges, efforts to reduce malaria-associated mortality in Africa can be evaluated with trends in malaria intervention coverage and all-cause childhood mortality. Where there are resources and interest, complementary data on malaria morbidity and malaria-specific mortality could be added.

Malaria vector control targeting the larval stages of mosquitoes was applied successfully against many species of Anopheles (Diptera: Culicidae) in malarious countries until the mid-20th Century. Since the introduction of DDT in the 1940s and the associated development of indoor residual spraying (IRS), which usually has a more powerful impact than larval control on vectorial capacity, the focus of malaria prevention programmes has shifted to the control of adult vectors. In the Afrotropical Region, where malaria is transmitted mainly by Anopheles funestus Giles and members of the Anopheles gambiae Giles complex, gaps in information on larval ecology and the ability of An. gambiae sensu lato to exploit a wide variety of larval habitats have discouraged efforts to develop and implement larval control strategies. Opportunities to complement adulticiding with other components of integrated vector management, along with concerns about insecticide resistance, environmental impacts, rising costs of IRS and logistical constraints, have stimulated renewed interest in larval control of malaria vectors. Techniques include environmental management, involving the temporary or permanent removal of anopheline larval habitats, as well as larviciding with chemical or biological agents. This present review covers large-scale trials of anopheline larval control methods, focusing on field studies in Africa conducted within the past 15 years. Although such studies are limited in number and scope, their results suggest that targeting larvae, particularly in human-made habitats, can significantly reduce malaria transmission in appropriate settings. These approaches are especially suitable for urban areas, where larval habitats are limited, particularly when applied in conjunction with IRS and other adulticidal measures, such as the use of insecticide treated bednets.

A parasitological cross-sectional survey was undertaken from September 2000 through February 2001 to estimate the prevalence of malaria parasitemia in Eritrea. A total of 12,937 individuals from 176 villages were screened for both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax parasite species using the OptiMal Rapid Diagnostic Test. Malaria prevalence was generally low but highly focal and variable with the proportion of parasitemia at 2.2% (range: 0.4% to 6.5%). Despite no significant differences in age or sex-specific prevalence rates, 7% of households accounted for the positive cases and 90% of these were P. falciparum. Multivariate regression analyses revealed that mud walls were positively associated with malaria infection (OR [odds ratio] = 1.6 [95% CI: 1.2, 2.2], P < 0.008). For countries with low and seasonal malaria transmission, such information can help programs design improved strategic interventions.

Insecticide-treated mosquito nets have an impact on mortality and morbidity in young children under controlled conditions. When integrated into larger control programs, there is the danger that rates of regular retreatment of the nets with insecticide will drop, greatly limiting their effectiveness as a public health intervention. In Bagamoyo District, Tanzania, rates of retreatment dropped significantly when payment for the insecticide was introduced. A series of neighbourhood (hamlet) meetings were held in all study villages to discuss people's concerns about the insecticide and ways to increase rates of retreatment. Although changes were made in the procedure for retreatment, rates of retreatment remained lower than expected and showed marked variation within as well as between villages. We then conducted unstructured key informant interviews as well as informal discussions in a village with strong variation between different sectors of the villages in rates of retreatment. While logistical problems were most frequently cited as reasons not to bring nets for retreatment, political and social divisions within the community provided a better explanation. This is borne out by the low response to rearrangements in logistics which made retreating the nets significantly easier for households, and the higher response when changes were made in the channels of communication as well as the logistic features. It is clearly more difficult for villagers to appreciate the benefits of the insecticide than those of the nets. Great emphasis needs to be placed on the insecticide and its beneficial effects from the outset for any large-scale programme to be sustainable.

Since the year 2000, a concerted campaign against malaria has led to unprecedented levels of intervention coverage across sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the effect of this control effort is vital to inform future control planning. However, the effect of malaria interventions across the varied epidemiological settings of Africa remains poorly understood owing to the absence of reliable surveillance data and the simplistic approaches underlying current disease estimates. Here we link a large database of malaria field surveys with detailed reconstructions of changing intervention coverage to directly evaluate trends from 2000 to 2015, and quantify the attributable effect of malaria disease control efforts. We found that Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in endemic Africa halved and the incidence of clinical disease fell by 40% between 2000 and 2015. We estimate that interventions have averted 663 (542-753 credible interval) million clinical cases since 2000. Insecticide-treated nets, the most widespread intervention, were by far the largest contributor (68% of cases averted). Although still below target levels, current malaria interventions have substantially reduced malaria disease incidence across the continent. Increasing access to these interventions, and maintaining their effectiveness in the face of insecticide and drug resistance, should form a cornerstone of post-2015 control strategies., In the midst of an escalating malaria public health disaster, the year 2000 marked a turning point in multilateral commitment to malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa, catalysed by the Roll [...]