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Context. The large-scale magnetic field in the Sun varies with a period of approximately 22 years, although the amplitude of the cycle is subject to long-term modulation with recurrent phases of significantly reduced magnetic activity. It is believed that a hydromagnetic dynamo is responsible for producing this large-scale field, although this dynamo process is not well understood. Aims. Within the framework of mean-field dynamo theory, our aim is to investigate how competing mechanisms for poloidal field regeneration (namely a time-delayed Babcock-Leighton surface α-effect and an interface-type α-effect), can lead to the modulation of magnetic activity in a deep-seated solar dynamo model. Methods. We solve the standard αΩ dynamo equations in one spatial dimension, including source terms corresponding to both of the competing α-effects in the evolution equation for the poloidal field. This system is solved using two different methods. In addition to solving the one-dimensional partial differential equations directly, using numerical techniques, we also use a local approximation to reduce the governing equations to a set of coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which are studied using a combination of analytical and numerical methods. Results. In the ODE model, it is straightforward to find parameters such that a series of bifurcations can be identified as the time delay is increased, with the dynamo transitioning from periodic states to chaotic states via multiply periodic solutions. Similar transitions can be observed in the full model, with the chaotically modulated solutions exhibiting solar-like behaviour. Conclusions. Competing α-effects could explain the observed modulation in the solar cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct a series of kinematic axisymmetric mean-field dynamo models operating in the αΩ, α²Ω and α² regimes, all using the full α-tensor extracted from a global magnetohydrodynamical simulation of solar convection producing large-scale magnetic fields undergoing solar-like cyclic polarity reversals. We also include an internal differential rotation profile produced in a purely hydrodynamical parent simulation of solar convection, and a simple meridional flow profile described by a single cell per meridional quadrant. An α²Ω mean-field model, presumably closest to the mode of dynamo action characterizing the MHD simulation, produces a spatiotemporal evolution of magnetic fields that share some striking similarities with the zonally-averaged toroidal component extracted from the simulation. Comparison with α² and αΩ mean-field models operating in the same parameter regimes indicates that much of the complexity observed in the spatiotemporal evolution of the large-scale magnetic field in the simulation can be traced to the turbulent electromotive force. Oscillating α²solutions are readily produced, and show some similarities with the observed solar cycle, including a deep-seated toroidal component concentrated at low latitudes and migrating equatorward in the course of the solar cycle. Various numerical experiments performed using the mean-field models reveal that turbulent pumping plays an important role in setting the global characteristics of the magnetic cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a truncated dynamo model and observations of the sunspot number to infer cycle-to-cycle variations of several dynamo parameters. A correlation study between model parameters and solar cycle observables (period, amplitude, and rising time) is done, and our results are compared with the results of other authors. Using the strongest correlations found, we determined a series of relationships that can be used for prediction purposes. This technique indicates that solar cycle 24 will have a sunspot maximum of approximately 84 around June of 2013. In the context of the used model, most of the variability found in the solar cycle can be attributed to changes in the strength of the meridional circulation. The results also point to a common origin for the source of variation of the meridional flow and differential rotation and/or the α-effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Secular variations of solar activity (Gleissberg and Suess cycles) have approximately 80 – 130 and 200 year periods. They are manifested in both observed and proxy data. Here, we show that the basic dynamic features of the Schwabe cycle (asymmetry of its growth and decay phases) and secular cycles (multi-frequency structure and irregular Grand-extremes), as well as a connection between them, can be described by parameter tuning of the electromechanical “toy” dynamo system which has been widely used to model the inversions of the geomagnetic field. An amplitude-frequency diagram for the model magnetic flux has the same shape as the directly observed and reconstructed sunspot area indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]