Search

Expansionary and contractionary effects of exchange rate shock in developing economies has been the subject of an extensive debate but the results are inconclusive. This study has been conducted to examine the repercussions of unexpected exchange rate depreciation in the Pakistan economy. Unlike the previous literature, this study utilizes a fairly large macroeconometric model constructed on the basis of Cowles Commission structural approach. The study explores that expansionary effect of exchange rate depreciation explained by the traditional theories of open economy macroeconomics persists only for one fiscal year but these theories don't work in the long-run as contractionary phase starts in the subsequent years. Monetary and fiscal authorities are not neutral and contractionary policy is taken in response to depreciation which pushes the economy into recession. Stagflationary effects are clearly observed. However, improvement in foreign sector prolongs for a number of years and policy makers would have to face a trade-off between opposite response of output and current account balance. Hence, unexpected depreciation generates sharp cyclical fluctuations on demand which immediately transmit to supply side of the economy. In line with the views of "New Structuralists", exchange rate depreciation may be considered as a source of shock rather than shock absorber in the case of Pakistan economy. Although this study is specifically estimated for the Pakistan economy, authors believe that their methodological contributions and results are of wider importance for policy makers in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Monetary Studies (Bank of Lithuania) is the property of Bank of Lithuania and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The economic situation of all the major developed countries has changed significantly during the 2007–10 period. Yet many economic policies have been kept in place. This is true in particular of a key measure in French government policy: tax reductions on overtime hours and their exemption from social charges. In this article we propose simulations of this scheme based on the economic context in which it is implemented. According to our simulations, this kind of measure is pro-cyclical and therefore poorly suited to the current situation of the French economy. Furthermore, even in the case of good conditions, the scheme would not be funded. Without financing, this measure would widen the deficit and would amount to a fiscal stimulus. Financing it through an increase in levies would radically change its nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Monetary Studies (Bank of Lithuania) is the property of Bank of Lithuania and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

On 1 January 2007, Slovenia adopted the euro as the first of the ten new EU member states. By means of simulations with SLOPOL6, a macroeconometric model of the Slovene economy, this paper examines the macroeconomic consequences that can be expected from this event. It is shown that after a short period of minor turbulences related to the introduction of the euro, the adoption of the euro brings about higher real GDP growth, a higher GDP level, more employment, lower inflation, a lower price level and improved public finances in the medium run. On the other hand, the current account deteriorates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a macroeconometric simulation model for Mexico on a microeconomics basis. This proposal has several distinctive features that makes it different from other models that have been previously elaborated for the Mexican economy. Behavioral relationships are not specified in an ad-hoc manner, but by means of the study of rational behavior of all the economic agents and their interactions with the markets. Through the formulation of intertemporal optimization models, the dynamics of the key macroeconomic variables are determined. Our proposal allows to reproduce stylized facts of the Mexican economy observed between 1995 and 2002. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]