Search

Disequilibrating macro shocks affect different firms' prospects differently, increasing idiosyncratic variation in forward-looking stock returns before affecting economic growth. Consistent with most such shocks from 1947 to 2020 enhancing productivity, increased idiosyncratic stock return variation forecasts next-quarter real GDP growth, industrial production growth, and consumption growth both in-sample and out-of-sample. These effects persist after controlling for other leading economic indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale shocks directly affect some firms and households and indirectly affect others through general equilibrium spillovers. In this paper, I describe how researchers can directly estimate spillovers using quasi-experimental or experimental variation. I then argue that spillover estimates suffer from distinct sources of mechanical bias that standard empirical tools cannot resolve. These biases are particularly relevant in finance and macroeconomics, where multiple spillover channels and nonlinear effects are common. I offer guidance on how to detect and overcome mechanical biases. An application and several examples highlight that the suggested methods are broadly relevant and can inform policy and multiplier calculations. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the international transmission of U.S. real and financial shocks on the USMCA region using a global approach. The study relies on a GVAR (Global Vector Autoregressive) model and generalized impulse-response functions (GIRF). The main findings suggest that: 1) The USMCA economies are contemporaneously linked to the world economy mainly through private credit, international trade and real GDP; 2) shocks on U.S. GDP and U.S. trade flows have higher influence in Canada than in Mexico; 3) shocks on U.S. interest rates have higher influence in Mexico than in Canada; 4) the private credit and the international trade channels are the most important ones for the transmission of international macroeconomic shocks. The study relies on quarterly data for 33 countries of the period 1986:Q1-2019:Q4. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a novel theory of intrinsic inflation persistence by introducing trend inflation and Kimball (1995)‐type aggregators of individual differentiated goods and labor in a model with staggered price‐ and wage‐setting. Under nonzero trend inflation, the non‐CES (constant elasticity of substitution) aggregator of goods and staggered price‐setting give rise to a variable real marginal cost of goods aggregation, which becomes a driver of inflation. This marginal cost consists of an aggregate of the goods' relative prices, which depends on past inflation, thereby generating intrinsic inertia in inflation. Likewise, the non‐CES aggregator of labor and staggered wage‐setting lead to intrinsic inertia in wage inflation, which enhances the persistence of price inflation. With the theory we show that inflation exhibits a persistent, hump‐shaped response to monetary policy shocks. We also demonstrate that lower trend inflation reduces inflation persistence and that a credible disinflation leads to a gradual decline in inflation and a fall in output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices, and currencies. An increase in country's output volatility is associated with a decrease in its output, consumption, and net exports. The average consumption pass-through is 50% (a 1% increase in output volatility increases consumption volatility by 0.5%) and it increases to 70% for shocks originating in smaller countries. The equity volatility pass-through is larger and in the order of 90%. A novel channel of risk sharing of volatility risks can explain our empirical findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of corporate bond credit spreads to three exogenous macro shocks—oil supply, investment‐specific technology, and government spending—is large, significant, and a mirror image of macroeconomic activity. This countercyclicality is driven largely by credit risk premia and translates into significant return predictability. Equity risk premia exhibit similar responses, providing external validity. Information rigidities and leverage play a key role in the transmission of the shocks. Since causal evidence linking macro shocks to credit markets is scarce and recent work highlights the real effects of credit fluctuations, our findings contribute to understanding the joint dynamics of credit markets and the macroeconomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimated impulse responses of investment and hiring typically peak well after the impact of a shock. Standard models with adjustment costs in capital and labor do not exhibit such delayed adjustment, but we argue that it arises naturally when we relax the assumption that the production technology is separable over time. This result, which holds for both convex and nonconvex cost functions, is strong enough to match the persistence observed in the data for reasonable parameter values. We discuss some evidence for our explanation and ways to test it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How will the outbreak of Covid-19 affect people's expectations on the macroeconomy? We conduct an online experiment in China to investigate the relationship between ambiguity aversion, risk aversion, and expectations about the macroeconomy after the onset of Covid-19 which can be considered an uncertainty shock. Our study differs from previous studies as we elicit individuals' preferences in terms of ambiguity aversion and risk aversion, and test how these preferences drive macroeconomic expectations. We find that ambiguity averse subjects are more pessimistic about the effect of Covid-19 on the economic growth rate. Ambiguity averse subjects are more likely to reduce consumption and expect lower savings in response to the outbreak. More risk taking subjects have more optimistic expectations on the macroeconomy, and they are less likely to reduce consumption, investment, and savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the incidence and severity of periods with a binding effective lower bound on nominal interest rates and the efficacy of three types of state‐dependent policies—forward guidance about the path of future interest rates, large‐scale asset purchases, and spending‐based fiscal stimulus—in mitigating the detrimental consequences of the lower bound for macro‐economic stability. Based on the ECB's New Area‐Wide Model of the euro area, our findings suggest that, if left unaddressed, the lower bound can cause substantial macro‐economic distortions. In the near term, forward guidance, if fully credible, is most powerful and can largely undo these distortions. A combination of imperfectly credible forward guidance, asset purchases, and fiscal stimulus is almost equally effective, especially when asset purchases enhance the credibility of the forward‐guidance policy via a signaling effect. In the long run, with an equilibrium real rate as low as zero, a combination of all three policies is needed to materially reduce the distortions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To deleverage is one of the major tasks for the supply-side structural reform in China, and to steadily deleverage in order is the key to fending off and defusing financial risks. This paper uses the economic statistics of China around 2016 to depict the "expansion-contraction" fluctuations with Chinese macroeconomy during the deleveraging. In this realistic context, it constructs a financial business cycle model based on the financial accelerator theory and attempts to use default cost changes to introduce financial shocks and understand China's macroeconomic fluctuations in the deleveraging context in the perspective of unanticipated and anticipated shocks. Results of the numerical model simulation show that before and after the deleveraging, the fluctuations of credit, leverage ratio, credit spread and other major macroeconomic variables originate not only from the changes with unanticipated default cost. Anticipated changes with default cost can similarly explain the "expansion-contraction" macroeconomic fluctuations in recent years and offer a new perspective into the fluctuations during deleveraging. Accordingly, government, when practicing deleveraging policies, is advised to take into full consideration not only the actual changes with default cost, but also anticipated factors of financial institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relying on the structural vector autoregression developed by Cieslak and Pang, the authors identify four shocks to the US economy based on the US Treasury yield curve and the stock market: two fundamental news shocks (growth and money) and two risk-premium shocks (common and hedging). They find that these shocks explain over 40% of the time-series variation of emerging markets currency (EMFX) returns. Additionally, EMFX returns increase significantly with positive growth shocks and decrease with monetary tightening and risk-premium shocks. The authors show that growth and common shocks are priced in the cross section of EMFX, with a positive and negative risk premiums, respectively. They then build long-short currency portfolios based on several academically researched style factors and test their performance and relative exposure to the macroeconomic shocks affecting the US economy. They find that only carry and macro momentum long-short portfolios generate positive and significant alphas and excess returns over their sample. However, all single-factor portfolios have sizable exposure to the four shocks. The authors show that a simple multifactor approach to investing in EMFXs eliminates the exposure of excess returns to all macroeconomic shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study has examined the impacts of credit supply shocks and other common economic shocks (aggregate demand & supply and monetary shocks) on Malaysia's macroeconomic variables, using the Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model and employing sign restrictions. The results showed that an expansionary credit supply shock positively affected the Malaysian economy, consistent with the existing literature. Based on the variance decomposition finding, credit supply shocks explained a significant portion of the anticipated variation in the GDP growth, inflation, and, most importantly, credit growth in Malaysia. This study further decomposed total private non-financial corporate loans into two components: households and non-financial firms. Unlike other economies that have extensively researched this subject matter (US, UK, Euro Area), the growth rate of households and non-financial firms differed greatly in Malaysia. The empirical findings revealed considerable distinctions between these two components, indicating that different treatments or policy formulations are required rather than employing the same policy to boost or govern Malaysia's credit market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Polish Journal of Economics / Gospodarka Narodowa is the property of SGH Warsaw School of Economics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose: This paper aims to make the first attempt to study the transmission of COVID-19 pandemic-induced shocks to the global Islamic stock markets in the midst of the overall macroeconomic environment and cross-country trade linkages. This is made possible by constructing a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model and with it the authors arrive at noteworthy conclusions. Design/methodology/approach: The paper estimates both fixed and time-varying weights GVAR models for 15 Islamic stock markets with 5,000 bootstrap replications and reports impulse response functions. It simulates four shocks associated with the pandemic: first, a standard error negative shock to oil price; second, a standard error negative shock to the global Islamic stock markets; third, a standard error positive shock to equity-based uncertainty index; and fourth, a standard error negative shock to economic activity (inflation). Findings: The paper shows that the pandemic engenders immediate negative impacts on the Islamic stock markets with the biggest impacts borne by the USA and China and the least by markets in the Middle East. The study documents the magnitudes of the responses to the shocks and shows that the impacts of the pandemic will take about 20 months to wither completely. Originality/value: The findings throw up diversification benefits for investors toward the UAE, Oman, Bahrain and other Middle East markets especially during crisis. It further reveals the need for counter-cyclical measures in all countries to curtail the negative impacts of the pandemic which could linger for up to 20 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the causal effect of bank credit rating downgrades on the supply of bank lending. The identification strategy exploits the asymmetric impact of sovereign downgrades on the ratings of banks at the sovereign bound relative to banks that are not at the bound as a result of rating agencies' sovereign ceiling policies. This asymmetric effect leads to greater reductions in ratings-sensitive funding and lending of banks at the bound relative to other banks. Results for foreign borrowers and within lender-borrower relationships confirm that credit demand does not explain our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses external business cycle shocks to the economy of Pakistan using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework consisting of five variables: gross domestic product, public investment, exchange rate, CPI, and openness of trade. The real exchange rate shock seems to be most volatile, and is responsible for significant movement in the rest of the variables in the system. The results indicate that terms of trade and exchange rate shocks have profound impacts on the system, and it can be generally concluded that external shocks have a strong bearing on the economy of Pakistan in both the short and long run. The study found that GDP is positively affected by public spending and terms of trade. Therefore, in general, we conclude that the economy of Pakistan is prone to be affected by external events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the financial channel of exchange rate fluctuations for emerging countries and the link to the conventional trade channel. We analyze whether the effective exchange rate affects GDP growth, the domestic credit and the global liquidity measure as the credit in foreign currencies, and how global liquidity affects GDP growth. We make use of local projections in order to look at the shocks' transmission covering 11 emerging market countries for the period 2000Q1-2016Q3. We find that foreign denominated credit plays an important macroeconomic role, operating through various transmission channels. The direction of effects depends on country characteristics and is also related to the policy stance among countries. We find that domestic appreciations increase demand regarding foreign credit, implying positive effects on investment and GDP growth. However, this is valid only in the short-run; in the medium-long run, an increase of credit denominated in foreign currency (for instance, due to appreciation) decreases GDP. The financial channel works mostly in the short run except for Brazil, Malaysia, and Mexico, where the trade channel always dominates. Possibly there is a substitution effect between domestic and foreign credit in the case of shocks in exchange rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ictimaiyat is the property of Ictimaiyat and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We study the revision of survey expectations in response to macroeconomic shocks, which we identify in vector autoregressive models with sign restrictions. We find that survey respondents distinguish between movements along the Phillips curve and shifts of the Phillips curve, depending on the type of shock that hits the economy. In addition, interest rate expectations are revised broadly in line with a Taylor rule. Consistent with models of rational inattention, macroeconomic shocks account for a small share of the forecast error variance of survey measures elicited from consumers, while they are more relevant for the expectations of professional forecasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the relation between disclosure quality and information asymmetry among market participants following an exogenous shock to macroeconomic risk. In 2015, the Swiss National Bank abruptly announced that it would abandon the longstanding minimum euro‐Swiss franc exchange rate. We find evidence suggesting that firms with more transparent disclosures regarding their foreign exchange risk exposure ex ante exhibit significantly lower information asymmetry ex post. The information gap in bid‐ask spreads appears within 30 minutes of the announcement and persists for two weeks, during which new information gradually substitutes for past disclosures. We validate the information dynamics of past risk disclosures with three field surveys: (1) Sell‐side analysts emphasize the importance of existing (risk) disclosures in evaluating the translational and transactional effects of the currency shock. (2) Lending banks' credit officers rely on past disclosures as the primary information source available for smaller (unlisted) firms in the immediate aftermath of the shock. (3) Investor‐relations managers use existing financial filings as a key resource when communicating with external stakeholders. The results suggest that historical disclosures help investors attenuate information asymmetry in light of unexpected news. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, using data from 46 markets and a 34-year time period, we examine the impact of the illiquidity of U.S. Treasuries on global asset valuation. We find that it predicts equity returns in both developed and emerging markets. This predictive relation remains intact after controlling for various world- and country-level variables. Asset pricing tests further reveal that bond illiquidity is a priced factor even in the presence of other conventional risks. Since the illiquidity of Treasuries is known to reflect monetary and macroeconomic shocks, our results suggest that it can be considered a proxy for aggregate worldwide risks. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

One of the most important economic policy issues, especially in the post-transition countries, is exchange rate regime (ERR), i.e. the question of optimal exchange rate regime that would stimulate economic growth and propagate macroeconomic stability. For small and EU-oriented countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), the EU accession processes and character of countries' economic cycle phase are usually highlighted among many factors. The choice of the appropriate exchange rate system is determinated by the specific characteristics of individual countries, time moment and the characteristics of the external shock occurrence. It is generally accepted that monetary instabilities are treated by fixation and real economic shocks by exchange rate fluctuations. An important criterion for assessing the adequacy of the current exchange rate regime is its response to external shocks, such as the Great Recession in 2008. While flexible exchange rate regime is used as an automatic stabilizer, fixed exchange rates place certain restrictions. The process of macroeconomic adjustment in the Baltic States is an example of how large macroeconomic imbalances can be reduced without adjusting the nominal exchange rate and how the currency board can be successfully used as a stage in the euro introduction process. The aim of this paper is to give a comparative overview of the currency board introduction in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Baltic countries, results achieved and reactions to external shocks (Great Recession in 2008) within this exchange rate arrangement, so conclusions that could be valuable in post-COVID 19 recovery can be drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies how a financial system that is organized to efficiently create safe assets responds to macroeconomic shocks. Financial intermediaries face a cost of bearing risk, so they choose the least risky portfolio that backs their issuance of riskless deposits: a diversified pool of nonfinancial firms' debt. Nonfinancial firms choose their capital structure to exploit the resulting segmentation between debt and equity markets. Increased safe asset demand yields larger and riskier intermediaries and more levered firms. Quantitative easing reduces the size and riskiness of intermediaries and can decrease firm leverage, despite reducing borrowing costs at the zero lower bound. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies identify Marginal Efficiency of Investment (MEI) shocks as important drivers of the business cycle. However, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models struggle to explain macroeconomic comovements between consumption and the key real variables after a MEI shock. Moreover, engaging in tax evasion practices is often an answer to financial constraints, which have been recognized as important determinants of cyclical fluctuations as well. We use a medium‐scale New Keynesian DSGE model, that combines tax evasion with financial frictions, to simulate a MEI shock. We show that entrepreneurial tax evasion can solve the comovement problem to a fair extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important for the policy makers to know what kinds of shocks are responsible for macroeconomic fluctuations or recession to formulate appropriate policy responses. This paper exploits a stylized model to identify the sources of macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations in the US. The model consists of a productivity equation, a demand function, an exchange rate augmented Phillips curve, a monetary policy rule and an exchange rate equation (uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition). The stylized model implies a set of short-run restrictions that allow for the identification of the structural shocks in a vector autoregression model in order to test the model's consistency with data. We use real GDP for output, GDP deflator for price, Federal fund rate (FF) as monetary policy. The other two variables are unemployment rate and Nominal effective exchange rate (NEER). Throughout the analyses oil price is used as an exogenous variable. The Sample period starts from 1980q1, and ends at 2008 q2 to avoid possible non-linearity arise from 2008 financial crisis. Results show that more than half of the fluctuation in unemployment and output is explained by two shocks namely productivity/technology shock and aggregate demand shock. Monetary policy shock can explain around 15 per cent while supply and exchange rate shock explain less than 10 percent of the variation in unemployment and output. These results from our simple model are compatible with those from more sophisticated models found in current literature. Hence, our model is more appealing to the policy makers. Further, to gauge the importance of monetary policy in stabilizing the economy, a counterfactual simulation exercise is performed. The exercise shows that monetary policy has stabilized inflation and unemployment, though at the cost of increasing variability in output. The findings of this paper emphasize that policy makers should be aware of the importance of demand side shocks such as policy uncertainty and money supply. A positive uncertainty shock (an increase in uncertainty) may reduce investment and may slow the economic recovery. On the other hand, a prolong period of expansionary monetary policy may make the inflation expectations less anchored. Therefore, the policy makers should try to keep the impact of policy uncertainty at the minimum level and should follow prudent monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the impact of foreign official purchases of the U.S. treasury securities on the entire yield curve of the contract. Topics discussed include importance of foreign official purchases for monetary policy, impact of innovations in foreign official purchases on macroeconomic outcomes, and the response of yields to macroeconomics' standard deviation shock.

We propose a theory of optimal fiscal policy with 'Limited-Time Commitment'. In our framework, successive governments have commitment only over finite, overlapping horizons. We first show that key results in the 'Full Commitment' literature can often be sustained with a single period of commitment. We then solve a calibrated model in which 'Limited-Time Commitment' fails to implement the 'Full Commitment' policy, and find that one year (three years) of commitment recovers one-third (two-thirds) of the welfare losses relative to 'No Commitment'. Finally, we investigate the trade-off between commitment and flexibility in response to shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Istanbul Commerce University Journal of Social Sciences / İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi is the property of Istanbul Commerce University Journal of Social Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Zeszyty Studenckie Wydzialu Ekonomicznego Uniwersytetu Gdanskiego "Nasze Studia" is the property of Fundacja Rozwoju Uniwersytetu Gdanskiego and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper studies the asset pricing implications of a firm's opportunities to replace routine‐task labor with automation. I develop a model in which firms optimally undertake such replacement when their productivity is low. Hence, firms with routine‐task labor maintain a replacement option that hedges their value against unfavorable macroeconomic shocks and lowers their expected returns. Using establishment‐level occupational data, I construct a measure of firms' share of routine‐task labor. Compared to their industry peers, firms with a higher share of routine‐task labor (i) invest more in machines and reduce more routine‐task labor during economic downturns, and (ii) have lower expected stock returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine shocks to capital flows from the United States, the Eurozone, and China. A US interest rate rise is contractionary for the United States but produces positive growth elsewhere. Cross-border claims and US interest rate shocks have been more subdued since the global financial crisis, consistent with the portfolio rebalancing hypothesis. Negative claims shocks from the Eurozone have opposite macroeconomic effects than when the same shock hits the United States due to the predominance of bank-intermediated financing in the Eurozone. Real and financial link exists between China and the Eurozone. The United States is relatively immune to shocks from China of the kind investigated here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper re-examines the hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis using panel data for 11 Asian countries for the period from 1980 to 2008. This study employs a variety of panel data unit root tests recently advanced by Bai and Ng (2004), Pesaran (2007) and Chang and Song (2009). The advantage of these tests is that they are able to exploit the cross-section variations of the series. In addition to these tests, a new powerful panel stationarity test proposed by Carrión-i-Silvestre et al. (2005) is applied which exploits the cross-section variations of the series and also allows for different numbers of endogenous breakpoints in the series. Our findings stress the importance of accounting exogenous shocks in the series and provide stronger evidence against the hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis for the countries analyzed. We also discover critical economic affairs which may cause the unemployment rates to fluctuate significantly. Policy implications are proposed through our observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In recent years, the price of international nonferrous metals has undergone drastic fluctuations, which could exert significant shock effects on macroeconomic variables. Based on the perspective of resource security, this paper reveals the relationship between the nonferrous metal price shocks and China's macroeconomic variables by establishing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model embedded with nonferrous metal consumption and means of production blocks. The model is based on the optimal decision-making behaviours of three departments that satisfy multiple constraints to realize optimal policy making. Furthermore, the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) method is applied to verify the shock effects of nonferrous metal price and obtain more robust results. The Bayesian results show that there is consistency among nonferrous metal price shocks, consumer reference shocks, wage bonus shocks, technical shocks, and price-adjusted shocks. The impulse response function results indicate that the stimulation of an international nonferrous metal price increase would have significant positive impacts on the macroeconomic variables of investment, money supply, consumption and total output but negative effects on labour demand. In addition, the impulse responses of wage levels and the rate of inflation to nonferrous metal price shocks present obvious lagging effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Banks and the banking system are the most important financial institutions of any state. Interacting directly with all sectors of national economy, they help to address the main issues of redistribution of funds between individuals and companies, between various branches of national industry and attract investments, etc. In this way the country's economy and the banking sector are closely intertwined. On the one hand, the stability of the banking sector has a key role in ensuring an efficient allocation of financial resources and economic growth, and on the other hand, the evolution of the macroeconomic environment imprints on the state and stability of banking sector. This scientific work aims to determine the impact of macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova on the national banking sector, and based on the interdependence of macroeconomic and banking indicators to analyze how certain variables respond to different sources of shock in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the Korea Labor and Income Panel Study from 1998 to 2010, we measure income mobility and determinants of income ranks and mobility. Empirical outcomes reveal that income mobility is quite limited for both the poorest and the richest income households. Moreover, a macro economic shock had heterogeneous impacts on each income group and the low-income class was highly vulnerable to it. Given the long-lasting impacts of early stage factors and initial endowment on income, this paper calls for policies to support citizens suffering from illness, family breakdown, poor initial conditions, and aging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing approaches to assess the economic impact of climate policies tend to overlook the financial sector and to focus only on direct effects of policies on the specific institutional sector they target, neglecting possible feedbacks between sectors, thus, underestimating the overall policy effect. To fill in this gap, we develop a methodology based on financial networks, which allows for analyzing the transmission throughout the economy of positive or negative shocks induced by the introduction of specific climate policies. We apply the methodology to empirical data of the Euro Area to identify the feedback loops between the financial sector and the real economy both through direct and indirect chains of financial exposures across multiple financial instruments. By focusing on climate policy-induced shocks that affect directly either the banking sector or non-financial firms, we analyze the reinforcing feedback loops that could amplify the effects of shocks on the financial sector and then cascade on the real economy. Our analysis helps to understand the conditions for virtuous or vicious cycles to arise in the climate-finance nexus and to provide a comprehensive assessment of the economic impact of climate policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]