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Differential equations in general and neural ODEs in particular are an essential technique in continuous-time system identification. While many deterministic learning algorithms have been designed based on numerical integration via the adjoint method, many downstream tasks such as active learning, exploration in reinforcement learning, robust control, or filtering require accurate estimates of predictive uncertainties. In this work, we propose a novel approach towards estimating epistemically uncertain neural ODEs, avoiding the numerical integration bottleneck. Instead of modeling uncertainty in the ODE parameters, we directly model uncertainties in the state space. Our algorithm - distributional gradient matching (DGM) - jointly trains a smoother and a dynamics model and matches their gradients via minimizing a Wasserstein loss. Our experiments show that, compared to traditional approximate inference methods based on numerical integration, our approach is faster to train, faster at predicting previously unseen trajectories, and in the context of neural ODEs, significantly more accurate., Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 34, ISBN:9781713845393

Learning how complex dynamical systems evolve over time is a key challenge in system identification. For safety critical systems, it is often crucial that the learned model is guaranteed to converge to some equilibrium point. To this end, neural ODEs regularized with neural Lyapunov functions are a promising approach when states are fully observed. For practical applications however, {\em partial observations} are the norm. As we will demonstrate, initialization of unobserved augmented states can become a key problem for neural ODEs. To alleviate this issue, we propose to augment the system's state with its history. Inspired by state augmentation in discrete-time systems, we thus obtain {\em neural delay differential equations}. Based on classical time delay stability analysis, we then show how to ensure stability of the learned models, and theoretically analyze our approach. Our experiments demonstrate its applicability to stable system identification of partially observed systems and learning a stabilizing feedback policy in delayed feedback control., Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 34, ISBN:9781713845393

Gaussian processes are an important regression tool with excellent analytic properties which allow for direct integration of derivative observations. However, vanilla GP methods scale cubically in the amount of observations. In this work, we propose a novel approach for scaling GP regression with derivatives based on quadrature Fourier features. We then prove deterministic, non-asymptotic and exponentially fast decaying error bounds which apply for both the approximated kernel as well as the approximated posterior. To furthermore illustrate the practical applicability of our method, we then apply it to ODIN, a recently developed algorithm for ODE parameter inference. In an extensive experiments section, all results are empirically validated, demonstrating the speed, accuracy, and practical applicability of this approach.

Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, 97, ISSN:2640-3498, Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2019)

Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, 89, ISSN:2640-3498, Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS 2019)