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Early disease detection and prevention methods based on effective interventions are gaining attention worldwide. Progress in precision medicine has revealed that substantial heterogeneity exists in health data at the individual level and that complex health factors are involved in chronic disease development. Machine-learning techniques have enabled precise personal-level disease prediction by capturing individual differences in multivariate data. However, it is challenging to identify what aspects should be improved for disease prevention based on future disease-onset prediction because of the complex relationships among multiple biomarkers. Here, we present a health-disease phase diagram (HDPD) that represents an individual's health state by visualizing the future-onset boundary values of multiple biomarkers that fluctuate early in the disease progression process. In HDPDs, future-onset predictions are represented by perturbing multiple biomarker values while accounting for dependencies among variables. We constructed HDPDs for 11 diseases using longitudinal health checkup cohort data of 3,238 individuals, comprising 3,215 measurement items and genetic data. The improvement of biomarker values to the non-onset region in HDPD remarkably prevented future disease onset in 7 out of 11 diseases. HDPDs can represent individual physiological states in the onset process and be used as intervention goals for disease prevention., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a critical complication of immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy. Since the etiology of AKI in patients undergoing cancer therapy varies, clarifying underlying causes in individual cases is critical for optimal cancer treatment. Although it is essential to individually analyze immune checkpoint inhibitor-treated patients for underlying pathologies for each AKI episode, these analyses have not been realized. Herein, we aimed to individually clarify the underlying causes of AKI in immune checkpoint inhibitor-treated patients using a new clustering approach with Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Methods: We developed a gradient-boosting decision tree-based machine learning model continuously predicting AKI within 7 days, using the medical records of 616 immune checkpoint inhibitor-treated patients. The temporal changes in individual predictive reasoning in AKI prediction models represented the key features contributing to each AKI prediction and clustered AKI patients based on the features with high predictive contribution quantified in time series by SHAP. We searched for common clinical backgrounds of AKI patients in each cluster, compared with annotation by three nephrologists. Results: One hundred and twelve patients (18.2%) had at least one AKI episode. They were clustered per the key feature, and their SHAP value patterns, and the nephrologists assessed the clusters' clinical relevance. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that the area under the curve was 0.880. Patients with AKI were categorized into four clusters with significant prognostic differences (p = 0.010). The leading causes of AKI for each cluster, such as hypovolemia, drug-related, and cancer cachexia, were all clinically interpretable, which conventional approaches cannot obtain. Conclusion: Our results suggest that the clustering method of individual predictive reasoning in machine learning models can be applied to infer clinically critical factors for developing each episode of AKI among patients with multiple AKI risk factors, such as immune checkpoint inhibitor-treated patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]