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Soil moisture (SM), as one of the crucial environmental factors, has traditionally been estimated using global navigation satellite system interferometric reflectometry (GNSS-IR) microwave remote sensing technology. This approach relies on the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) reflection component, and its accuracy hinges on the successful separation of the reflection component from the direct component. In contrast, the presence of carrier phase and pseudorange multipath errors enables soil moisture retrieval without the requirement for separating the direct component of the signal. To acquire high-quality combined multipath errors and diversify GNSS-IR data sources, this study establishes the dual-frequency pseudorange combination (DFPC) and dual-frequency carrier phase combination (L4) that exclude geometrical factors, ionospheric delay, and tropospheric delay. Simultaneously, we propose two methods for estimating soil moisture: the DFPC method and the L4 method. Initially, the equal-weight least squares method is employed to calculate the initial delay phase. Subsequently, anomalous delay phases are detected and corrected through a combination of the minimum covariance determinant robust estimation (MCD) and the moving average filter (MAF). Finally, we utilize the multivariate linear regression (MLR) and extreme learning machine (ELM) to construct multi-satellite linear regression models (MSLRs) and multi-satellite nonlinear regression models (MSNRs) for soil moisture prediction, and compare the accuracy of each model. To validate the feasibility of these methods, data from site P031 of the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) H2O project are utilized. Experimental results demonstrate that combining MCD and MAF can effectively detect and correct outliers, yielding single-satellite delay phase sequences with a high quality. This improvement contributes to varying degrees of enhanced correlation between the single-satellite delay phase and soil moisture. When fusing the corrected delay phases from multiple satellite orbits using the DFPC method for soil moisture estimation, the correlations between the true soil moisture values and the predicted values obtained through MLR and ELM reach 0.81 and 0.88, respectively, while the correlations of the L4 method can reach 0.84 and 0.90, respectively. These findings indicate a substantial achievement in high-precision soil moisture estimation within a small satellite-elevation angle range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequent occurrence and spread of wildfires pose a serious threat to the ecological environment and urban development. Therefore, assessing regional wildfire susceptibility is crucial for the early prevention of wildfires and formulation of disaster management decisions. However, current research on wildfire susceptibility primarily focuses on improving the accuracy of models, while lacking in-depth study of the causes and mechanisms of wildfires, as well as the impact and losses they cause to the ecological environment and urban development. This situation not only increases the uncertainty of model predictions but also greatly reduces the specificity and practical significance of the models. We propose a comprehensive evaluation framework to analyze the spatial distribution of wildfire susceptibility and the effects of influencing factors, while assessing the risks of wildfire damage to the local ecological environment and urban development. In this study, we used wildfire information from the period 2013–2022 and data from 17 susceptibility factors in the city of Guilin as the basis, and utilized eight machine learning algorithms, namely logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), to assess wildfire susceptibility. By evaluating multiple indicators, we obtained the optimal model and used the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method to explain the effects of the factors and the decision-making mechanism of the model. In addition, we collected and calculated corresponding indicators, with the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) representing ecological vulnerability and the Night-Time Lights Index (NTLI) representing urban development vulnerability. The coupling results of the two represent the comprehensive vulnerability of the ecology and city. Finally, by integrating wildfire susceptibility and vulnerability information, we assessed the risk of wildfire disasters in Guilin to reveal the overall distribution characteristics of wildfire disaster risk in Guilin. The results show that the AUC values of the eight models range from 0.809 to 0.927, with accuracy values ranging from 0.735 to 0.863 and RMSE values ranging from 0.327 to 0.423. Taking into account all the performance indicators, the XGBoost model provides the best results, with AUC, accuracy, and RMSE values of 0.927, 0.863, and 0.327, respectively. This indicates that the XGBoost model has the best predictive performance. The high-susceptibility areas are located in the central, northeast, south, and southwest regions of the study area. The factors of temperature, soil type, land use, distance to roads, and slope have the most significant impact on wildfire susceptibility. Based on the results of the ecological vulnerability and urban development vulnerability assessments, potential wildfire risk areas can be identified and assessed comprehensively and reasonably. The research results of this article not only can improve the specificity and practical significance of wildfire prediction models but also provide important reference for the prevention and response of wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]