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Background: Timely recognition of hemodynamic instability in critically ill patients enables increased vigilance and early treatment opportunities. We develop the Hemodynamic Stability Index (HSI), which highlights situational awareness of possible hemodynamic instability occurring at the bedside and to prompt assessment for potential hemodynamic interventions., Methods: We used an ensemble of decision trees to obtain a real-time risk score that predicts the initiation of hemodynamic interventions an hour into the future. We developed the model using the eICU Research Institute (eRI) database, based on adult ICU admissions from 2012 to 2016. A total of 208,375 ICU stays met the inclusion criteria, with 32,896 patients (prevalence = 18%) experiencing at least one instability event where they received one of the interventions during their stay. Predictors included vital signs, laboratory measurements, and ventilation settings., Results: HSI showed significantly better performance compared to single parameters like systolic blood pressure and shock index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) and showed good generalization across patient subgroups. HSI AUC was 0.82 and predicted 52% of all hemodynamic interventions with a lead time of 1-h with a specificity of 92%. In addition to predicting future hemodynamic interventions, our model provides confidence intervals and a ranked list of clinical features that contribute to each prediction. Importantly, HSI can use a sparse set of physiologic variables and abstains from making a prediction when the confidence is below an acceptable threshold., Conclusions: The HSI algorithm provides a single score that summarizes hemodynamic status in real time using multiple physiologic parameters in patient monitors and electronic medical records (EMR). Importantly, HSI is designed for real-world deployment, demonstrating generalizability, strong performance under different data availability conditions, and providing model explanation in the form of feature importance and prediction confidence., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) in pediatric critical care patients is diagnosed using elevated serum creatinine, which occurs only after kidney impairment. There are no treatments other than supportive care for AKI once it has developed, so it is important to identify patients at risk to prevent injury. This study develops a machine learning model to learn pre-disease patterns of physiological measurements and predict pediatric AKI up to 48 h earlier than the currently established diagnostic guidelines., Methods: EHR data from 16,863 pediatric critical care patients between 1 month to 21 years of age from three independent institutions were used to develop a single machine learning model for early prediction of creatinine-based AKI using intelligently engineered predictors, such as creatinine rate of change, to automatically assess real-time AKI risk. The primary outcome is prediction of moderate to severe AKI (Stage 2/3), and secondary outcomes are prediction of any AKI (Stage 1/2/3) and requirement of renal replacement therapy (RRT). Predictions generate alerts allowing fast assessment and reduction of AKI risk, such as: "patient has 90% risk of developing AKI in the next 48 h" along with contextual information and suggested response such as "patient on aminoglycosides, suggest check level and review dose and indication"., Results: The model was successful in predicting Stage 2/3 AKI prior to detection by conventional criteria with a median lead-time of 30 h at AUROC of 0.89. The model predicted 70% of subsequent RRT episodes, 58% of Stage 2/3 episodes, and 41% of any AKI episodes. The ratio of false to true alerts of any AKI episodes was approximately one-to-one (PPV 47%). Among patients predicted, 79% received potentially nephrotoxic medication after being identified by the model but before development of AKI., Conclusions: As the first multi-center validated AKI prediction model for all pediatric critical care patients, the machine learning model described in this study accurately predicts moderate to severe AKI up to 48 h in advance of AKI onset. The model may improve outcome of pediatric AKI by providing early alerting and actionable feedback, potentially preventing or reducing AKI by implementing early measures such as medication adjustment., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: Early deterioration indicators have the potential to alert hospital care staff in advance of adverse events, such as patients requiring an increased level of care, or the need for rapid response teams to be called. Our work focuses on the problem of predicting the transfer of pediatric patients from the general ward of a hospital to the pediatric intensive care unit., Objectives: The development of a data-driven pediatric early deterioration indicator for use by clinicians with the purpose of predicting encounters where transfer from the general ward to the PICU is likely., Methods: Using data collected over 5.5 years from the electronic health records of two medical facilities, we develop machine learning classifiers based on adaptive boosting and gradient tree boosting. We further combine these learned classifiers into an ensemble model and compare its performance to a modified pediatric early warning score (PEWS) baseline that relies on expert defined guidelines. To gauge model generalizability, we perform an inter-facility evaluation where we train our algorithm on data from one facility and perform evaluation on a hidden test dataset from a separate facility., Results: We show that improvements are witnessed over the modified PEWS baseline in accuracy (0.77 vs. 0.69), sensitivity (0.80 vs. 0.68), specificity (0.74 vs. 0.70) and AUROC (0.85 vs. 0.73)., Conclusions: Data-driven, machine learning algorithms can improve PICU transfer prediction accuracy compared to expertly defined systems, such as a modified PEWS, but care must be taken in the training of such approaches to avoid inadvertently introducing bias into the outcomes of these systems., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)