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Recognising systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients at higher risk for hospitalization, aiming at developing tailored management strategies, may help minimize admissions and improve long-term health outcomes. Our study aimed to identify predictors for hospitalization in patients with SLE.Cohort study of SLE patients followed in a referral centre. All hospitalizations from study baseline up to 120 months were identified, and the primary indication for admission was categorized as follows: (1) SLE disease activity; (2); infection; and (3) other conditions. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters at baseline were sought as predictors of hospitalization for (i) any cause, (ii) disease activity, and (iii) infection using survival analysis with Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests. Potential predictors were further tested using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models.We included 398 patients (median follow-up: 120 months). The incidence rate of hospitalization was 17.7 per 100 patient-years. The most frequent indications for hospitalization were SLE disease activity (29.4%) and infection (23.4%). In multivariate analysis, male gender, age 50 years, antiphospholipid antibodies positivity (aPL), SLEDAI-2 K 5, organ damage, and prednisone daily dose (PDN) predicted hospitalization for any cause. SLEDAI-2 K 5, aPL, PDN, and IS medication predicted hospitalization for active SLE. Male gender, prior biopsy-proven lupus nephritis, aPL, organ damage, and ongoing treatment with high-risk IS predicted hospitalization for infection. Treatment with antimalarials was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization for any cause and for infection.Positive aPL identifies SLE patients presenting a higher risk of hospitalization, while medication with antimalarials was associated with a lower risk. Key Points • Positive aPL is predictive of hospitalization for any medical condition, disease activity, and infection • Organ damage is predictive of hospitalization for any condition and infection • Antimalarials are predictive of a lower risk of hospitalization for any condition and infection.

Infections are a major cause of morbidity and death in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Perfecting the understanding of contributors to infection burden in SLE is pivotal to improve management and outcomes. This study aims to identify clinical predictors of infection in SLE.We conducted a prospective cohort study at a referral SLE clinic. Infections were identified at each visit and categorized as (a) any type, (b) serious, (c) non-serious, and (d) bacterial. Survival analysis followed by multivariate Cox regression with an estimation of hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) was performed.We included 259 patients during a mean follow-up of 23.3 ± 5.7 months. The incidence rate of infection of any type was 59.3 cases per 100 patient-years. Multivariate Cox models showed that (a) prednisolone ≥ 7.5 mg/day (HR = 1.95, 95%CI 1.26-3.03) and female gender (HR = 2.08, 95%CI 1.12-3.86) were associated with higher risk of infection of any type; (b) prednisolone ≥ 10 mg/day was associated with higher (HR = 4.32, 95%CI 1.39-13.40), and antimalarials with lower risk (HR = 0.18, 95%CI 0.06-0.51) of serious infection; (c) female gender (HR = 1.92, 95%CI 1.04-3.57) and prednisolone ≥ 7.5 mg/day (HR = 1.89, 95%CI 1.21-2.96) were associated with higher risk of non-serious infection; (d) antimalarials were associated with lower (HR = 0.49, 95%CI 0.26-0.93) and female gender (HR = 5.12; 95%CI 1.62-16.18) with higher risk of bacterial infection.The risk of infection was higher in females in this young, well-controlled, low-comorbidity SLE cohort. Antimalarials were associated with lower and prednisolone ≥ 7.5 mg with higher risk of infection. Key Points • Lupus patients treated with prednisolone ≥ 7.5 mg/day were 89% more likely to present infections. • Lupus patients receiving prednisolone ≥ 10 mg/day were four times more likely to present serious infections. • Lupus patients receiving antimalarials were 82% less likely to present serious infections.

Objectives To derive and validate a definition of low disease activity (LDA) for SLE based on the SLE Disease Activity Score (SLE-DAS), in a real-life multicentre cohort of SLE patients. Methods Derivation was conducted using data from a monocentric cohort of SLE (Portugal), and validation was performed in a multicentre cohort (Italy, France and Spain). The Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS) was used as comparator. We applied receiver operating characteristics curve analysis against the LLDAS to determine the cut-off of SLE-DAS for LDA using bootstrap methodology. In a second step, we tested a definition of SLE-DAS LDA that included: (i) the statistically derived SLE-DAS upper threshold for LDA and (ii) prednisone dose ≤7.5 mg/day. In the multicentre validation cohort, we assessed the classification performance of this SLE-DAS LDA definition. Results We included 774 patients, 300 in the derivation and 474 in the validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, the optimal cut-off to identify patients in LLDAS was SLE-DAS ≤2.48, presenting an area under the curve of 0.965 (95% CI 0.935, 0.994). When applied to the multicentre validation cohort, the SLE-DAS LDA definition showed a sensitivity of 97.1% and a specificity of 97.7% for LLDAS and an almost perfect agreement (Cohen’s Kappa = 0.933; P Conclusion The SLE-DAS LDA is a validated, accurate and easy-to-use definition for classifying SLE patients in LDA state.