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No randomized controlled trial has evaluated the effect of long-term alcohol interventions on mortality. Results reported in existing observational studies may be subject to selection bias and time-varying confounding. Using data from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health 1946–1951 birth cohort, collected regularly from 1996–2016, we estimated all-cause and cancer mortality had women been assigned various alcohol interventions (in categories ranging from 0 to >30 g/day ethanol, or reduced to ≤20 g/day if higher) at baseline, and had they maintained these levels of consumption. The cumulative risks for all-cause and cancer mortality were 5.6% (10,118 women followed for 20 years) and 2.9% (18 years), respectively. For all-cause and cancer mortality, baseline ethanol up to 30 g/day showed lower risk and >30 g/day showed higher risk relative to abstention. Had women sustainedly followed the interventions, a similar relationship was observed for all-cause mortality. However, the negative association observed for intakes ≤30 g/day and positive association for intakes >30 g/day was not evident for cancer mortality. Our findings suggest that all-cause mortality could have been lower than observed if this cohort of women had consumed some alcohol (no more than 30 g/day) rather than no consumption, but cancer mortality might not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Observational studies have consistently found a link between low serum 25‐hydroxyvitamin D concentration and higher risk of cognitive impairment. Results from randomized controlled trials have been mixed, and few have been conducted in the general population. Methods: We recruited 21,315 community‐dwelling Australians aged between 60 and 84 years to participate in the D‐Health Trial, a randomized, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled trial. The intervention was monthly oral doses of 60,000 international units of vitamin D or placebo for 5 years. We assessed cognitive function in a randomly sampled group of participants aged ≥70 years using the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS) at 2 and 5 years after randomization. The primary outcome for this analysis was TICS score; the secondary outcome was the proportion of people who had cognitive impairment (defined as TICS score ≤25). We analyzed data using mixed models (linear and logistic). Results: We interviewed 3887 participants at year 2 and 3614 participants at year 5. The mean TICS score at these time points was 32.3 and 32.2, respectively. Vitamin D supplementation did not affect cognitive function as measured by TICS score (mean difference between vitamin D and placebo groups 0.04; 95% CI −0.14 to 0.23), or alter risk of cognitive impairment (odds ratio 1.00; 95% CI 0.75 to 1.33). Conclusions: Monthly bolus doses of vitamin D supplementation neither enhanced nor hindered cognitive function among older adults. Population‐wide vitamin D supplementation of older adults that are largely vitamin D replete is unlikely to substantially benefit cognition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Barrett's oesophagus (BE) is the precursor of oesophageal adenocarcinoma, which has become the most common type of oesophageal cancer in many Western populations. Existing evidence on diet and risk of BE predominantly comes from case–control studies, which are subject to recall bias in measurement of diet. We aimed to investigate the potential effect of diet, including macronutrients, carotenoids, food groups, specific food items, beverages and dietary scores, on risk of BE in over 20 000 participants of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Diet at baseline (1990–1994) was measured using a food frequency questionnaire. The outcome was BE diagnosed between baseline and follow-up (2007–2010). Logistic regression models were used to estimate OR and 95 % CI for diet in relation to risk of BE. Intakes of leafy vegetables and fruit were inversely associated with risk of BE (highest v. lowest quartile: OR = 0·59; CI: 0·38, 0·94; P -trend = 0·02 and OR = 0·58; CI: 0·37, 0·93; P -trend = 0·02 respectively), as were dietary fibre and carotenoids. Stronger associations were observed for food than the nutrients found in them. Positive associations were observed for discretionary food (OR = 1·54; CI: 0·97, 2·44; P -trend = 0·04) and total fat intake (OR per 10 g/d = 1·11; CI: 1·00, 1·23), the association for fat was less robust in sensitivity analyses. No association was observed for meat, protein, dairy products or diet scores. Diet is a potential modifiable risk factor for BE. Public health and clinical guidelines that incorporate dietary recommendations could contribute to reduction in risk of BE and, thereby, oesophageal adenocarcinoma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined associations between sex‐specific alcohol intake trajectories and alcohol‐related cancer risk using data from 22 756 women and 15 701 men aged 40 to 69 years at baseline in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Alcohol intake for 10‐year periods from age 20 until the decade encompassing recruitment, calculated using recalled beverage‐specific frequency and quantity, was used to estimate group‐based sex‐specific intake trajectories. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for primary invasive alcohol‐related cancer (upper aerodigestive tract, breast, liver and colorectum). Three distinct alcohol intake trajectories for women (lifetime abstention, stable light, increasing moderate) and six for men (lifetime abstention, stable light, stable moderate, increasing heavy, early decreasing heavy, late decreasing heavy) were identified. 2303 incident alcohol‐related cancers were diagnosed during 485 525 person‐years in women and 789 during 303 218 person‐years in men. For men, compared with lifetime abstention, heavy intake (mean ≥ 60 g/day) at age 20 to 39 followed by either an early (from age 40 to 49) (early decreasing heavy; HR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.25‐2.44) or late decrease (from age 60 to 69) (late decreasing heavy; HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.28‐2.93), and moderate intake (mean <60 g/day) at age 20 to 39 increasing to heavy intake in middle‐age (increasing heavy; HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.06‐1.97) were associated with increased risk of alcohol‐related cancer. For women, compared with lifetime abstention, increasing intake from age 20 (increasing moderate) was associated with increased alcohol‐related cancer risk (HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.06‐1.48). Similar associations were observed for colorectal (men) and breast cancer. Heavy drinking during early adulthood might increase cancer risk later in life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Inflammation is a key feature of aging. We aimed to (i) investigate the association of 34 blood markers potentially involved in inflammatory processes with age and mortality and (ii) develop a signature of "inflammaging."Methods: Thirty-four blood markers relating to inflammation, B vitamin status, and the kynurenine pathway were measured in 976 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study at baseline (median age = 59 years) and follow-up (median age = 70 years). Associations with age and mortality were assessed using linear and Cox regression, respectively. A parsimonious signature of inflammaging was developed and its association with mortality was compared with 2 marker scores calculated across all markers associated with age and mortality, respectively.Results: The majority of markers (30/34) were associated with age, with stronger associations observed for neopterin, cystatin C, interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), several markers of the kynurenine pathway and derived indices KTR (kynurenine/tryptophan ratio), PAr index (ratio of 4-pyridoxic acid and the sum of pyridoxal 5'-phosphate and pyridoxal), and HK:XA (3-hydroxykynurenine/xanthurenic acid ratio). Many markers (17/34) showed an association with mortality, in particular IL-6, neopterin, C-reactive protein, quinolinic acid, PAr index, and KTR. The inflammaging signature included 10 markers and was strongly associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per SD = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.24-1.57, p = 2 × 10-8), similar to scores based on all age-associated (HR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.23-1.55, p = 4 × 10-8) and mortality-associated markers (HR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.28-1.60, p = 1 × 10-10), respectively. Strong evidence of replication of the inflammaging signature association with mortality was found in the Hordaland Health Study.Conclusion: Our study highlights the key role of the kynurenine pathway and vitamin B6 catabolism in aging, along with other well-established inflammation-related markers. A signature of inflammaging based on 10 markers was strongly associated with mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Higher levels of time spent sitting (sedentary behavior) contribute to adverse health outcomes, including earlier death. This effect may be modified by other lifestyle factors. We examined the association of television viewing (TV), a common leisure-time sedentary behavior, with all-cause mortality, and whether this is modified by body mass index (BMI), physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, soft drink consumption, or diet-associated inflammation. Methods: Using data from participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, flexible parametric survival models assessed the time-dependent association of self-reported TV time (three categories: < 2 h/day, 2–3 h/day, > 3 h/day) with all-cause mortality. Interaction terms were fitted to test whether there was effect modification of TV time by the other risk factors. Results: From 19,570 participants, 4,417 deaths were reported over a median follow up of 14.5 years. More TV time was associated with earlier mortality; however, this relationship diminished with increasing age. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for > 3 h/day compared with < 2 h/day of TV time was 1.34 (1.16, 1.55) at 70 years, 1.14 (1.04, 1.23) at 80 years, and 0.95 (0.84, 1.06) at 90 years. The TV time/mortality relationship was more evident in participants who were physically inactive (compared with active; p for interaction < 0.01) or had a higher dietary inflammatory index score (compared with a lower score; p for interaction = 0.03). No interactions were detected between TV time and BMI, smoking, alcohol intake, nor soft-drink consumption (all p for interaction > 0.16). Conclusions: The relationship between TV time and all-cause mortality may change with age. It may also be more pronounced in those who are otherwise inactive or who have a pro-inflammatory diet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To examine the association between circulating 25(OH)D concentrations and incidence of total hip replacement for osteoarthritis in a prospective cohort study.Methods: This study examined a random sample of 2651 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who had 25(OH)D concentrations measured from dried blood spots collected in 1990-1994. Participants who underwent total hip replacement for osteoarthritis between January 2001 and December 2018 were identified by linking the cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of total hip replacement for osteoarthritis in relation to 25(OH)D concentrations, adjusted for confounders.Results: Eighty-six men and eighty-seven women had a total hip replacement for osteoarthritis. Compared with men in the lowest (1st) quartile of 25(OH)D concentration, the HR for total hip replacement was 2.32 (95% CI 1.05, 5.13) for those in the 2nd quartile, 2.77 (95% CI 1.28, 6.00) for those in the 3rd quartile, and 1.73 (95% CI 0.75, 4.02) for those in the highest quartile of 25(OH)D concentrations (p for trend 0.02). There was little evidence of an association in women.Conclusions: Higher circulating 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with an increased risk of total hip replacement for osteoarthritis in men but not in women. Although the underlying mechanism warrants further investigation, our findings highlight the need to determine the optimal levels of circulating 25(OH)D to reduce the risk of hip osteoarthritis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine associations between diet and risk of developing gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD).Design: Prospective cohort with a median follow-up of 15·8 years. Baseline diet was measured using a FFQ. GERD was defined as self-reported current or history of daily heartburn or acid regurgitation beginning at least 2 years after baseline. Sex-specific logistic regressions were performed to estimate OR for GERD associated with diet quality scores and intakes of nutrients, food groups and individual foods and beverages. The effect of substituting saturated fat for monounsaturated or polyunsaturated fat on GERD risk was examined.Setting: Melbourne, Australia.Participants: A cohort of 20 926 participants (62 % women) aged 40-59 years at recruitment between 1990 and 1994.Results: For men, total fat intake was associated with increased risk of GERD (OR 1·05 per 5 g/d; 95 % CI 1·01, 1·09; P = 0·016), whereas total carbohydrate (OR 0·89 per 30 g/d; 95 % CI 0·82, 0·98; P = 0·010) and starch intakes (OR 0·84 per 30 g/d; 95 % CI 0·75, 0·94; P = 0·005) were associated with reduced risk. Nutrients were not associated with risk for women. For both sexes, substituting saturated fat for polyunsaturated or monounsaturated fat did not change risk. For both sexes, fish, chicken, cruciferous vegetables and carbonated beverages were associated with increased risk, whereas total fruit and citrus were associated with reduced risk. No association was observed with diet quality scores.Conclusions: Diet is a possible risk factor for GERD, but food considered as triggers of GERD symptoms might not necessarily contribute to disease development. Potential differential associations for men and women warrant further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Nutritional epidemiology research using self-reported dietary intake is prone to measurement error. Objective methods are being explored to overcome this limitation.Objectives: We aimed to examine 1) the association between plasma markers related to inflammation and derive marker scores for dietary patterns [Mediterranean dietary score (MDS), energy-adjusted Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DIITM), Alternative Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI)] and 2) the associations of these marker scores with mortality.Methods: Weighted marker scores were derived from the cross-sectional association between 30 plasma markers and each dietary score (assessed using food-frequency questionnaires) using linear regression for 770 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (aged 50-82 y). Prospective associations between marker scores and mortality (n = 249 deaths) were assessed using Cox regression (median follow-up: 14.4 y).Results: The MDS, E-DII, and AHEI were associated (P < 0.05) with 9, 14, and 11 plasma markers, respectively. Healthier diets (higher MDS and AHEI, and lower anti-inflammatory, E-DII) were associated with lower concentrations of kynurenines, neopterin, IFN-γ, cytokines, and C-reactive protein. Five of 6 markers common to the 3 dietary scores were components of the kynurenine pathway. The 3 dietary-based marker scores were highly correlated (Spearman ρ: -0.74, -0.82, and 0.93). Inverse associations (for 1-SD increment) were observed with all-cause mortality for the MDS marker score (HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72-0.98) and the AHEI marker score (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.66-0.89), whereas a positive association was observed with the E-DII marker score (HR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.01-1.39). The same magnitude of effect was not observed for the respective dietary patterns.Conclusions: Markers involved in inflammation-related processes are associated with dietary quality, including a substantial overlap between markers associated with the MDS, the E-DII, and the AHEI, especially kynurenines. Unfavorable marker scores, reflecting poorer-quality diets, were associated with increased mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prenatal exposure to maternal smoking is detrimental to child health but its association with risk of cancer has seldom been investigated. Maternal smoking induces widespread and long-lasting DNA methylation changes, which we study here for association with risk of cancer in adulthood.Methods: Eight prospective case-control studies nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study were used to assess associations between maternal-smoking-associated methylation marks in blood and risk of several cancers: breast (n = 406 cases), colorectal (n = 814), gastric (n = 166), kidney (n = 139), lung (n = 327), prostate (n = 847) and urothelial (n = 404) cancer and B-cell lymphoma (n = 426). We used conditional logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between cancer and five methylation scores calculated as weighted averages for 568, 19, 15, 28 and 17 CpG sites. Models were adjusted for confounders, including personal smoking history (smoking status, pack-years, age at starting and quitting) and methylation scores for personal smoking.Results: All methylation scores for maternal smoking were strongly positively associated with risk of urothelial cancer. Risk estimates were only slightly attenuated after adjustment for smoking history, other potential confounders and methylation scores for personal smoking. Potential negative associations were observed with risk of lung cancer and B-cell lymphoma. No associations were observed for other cancers.Conclusions: We found that methylation marks of prenatal exposure to maternal smoking are associated with increased risk of urothelial cancer. Our study demonstrates the potential for using DNA methylation to investigate the impact of early-life, unmeasured exposures on later-life cancer risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

DNA methylation may be one of the mechanisms by which alcohol consumption is associated with the risk of disease. We conducted a large-scale, cross-sectional, genome-wide DNA methylation association study of alcohol consumption and a longitudinal analysis of repeated measurements taken several years apart. Using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip, DNA methylation was measured in blood samples from 5606 Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) participants. For 1088 of them, these measures were repeated using blood samples collected a median of 11 years later. Associations between alcohol intake and blood DNA methylation were assessed using linear mixed-effects regression models. Independent data from the London Life Sciences Prospective Population (LOLIPOP) (N = 4042) and Cooperative Health Research in the Augsburg Region (KORA) (N = 1662) cohorts were used to replicate associations discovered in the MCCS. Cross-sectional analyses identified 1414 CpGs associated with alcohol intake at P < 10-7 , 1243 of which had not been reported previously. Of these novel associations, 1078 were replicated (P < .05) using LOLIPOP and KORA data. Using the MCCS data, we also replicated 403 of 518 previously reported associations. Interaction analyses suggested that associations were stronger for women, non-smokers, and participants genetically predisposed to consume less alcohol. Of the 1414 CpGs, 530 were differentially methylated (P < .05) in former compared with current drinkers. Longitudinal associations between the change in alcohol intake and the change in methylation were observed for 513 of the 1414 cross-sectional associations. Our study indicates that alcohol intake is associated with widespread changes in DNA methylation across the genome. Longitudinal analyses showed that the methylation status of alcohol-associated CpGs may change with alcohol consumption changes in adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Men with prostate cancer experience side effects for which a supportive social environment may be beneficial. We examined the association between four measures of social connectedness and mortality after a prostate cancer diagnosis. Male participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study in 1990–1994, who developed incident prostate cancer and attended follow‐up in 2003–2007, were eligible for the study. Information on social connectedness, collected at follow‐up, included (i) living arrangement; (ii) frequency of visits to friends/relatives and (iii) from friends/relatives; (iv) weekly hours of social activities. A total of 1,421 prostate cancer cases was observed (338 all‐cause deaths, 113 from prostate cancer), including 867 after follow‐up (150 all‐cause deaths, 55 from prostate cancer) and 554 before follow‐up (188 all‐cause deaths, 58 from prostate cancer). Cox models stratified by tumour Gleason score and stage, and sequentially adjusted for socioeconomic, health‐ and lifestyle‐related confounders, were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the association between social connectedness and all‐cause mortality after prostate cancer. Men who reported living alone before diagnosis had higher overall mortality (HR = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.0–2.5), after adjustment for socioeconomic, health and lifestyle confounders. Lower mortality was observed for men with more social activities (p‐trend = 0.07), but not in comprehensively adjusted models. Consistent with these findings, men living alone after prostate cancer diagnosis had higher mortality (HR = 1.3, 95% CI: 0.9–1.9). Lower mortality was observed with increasing socializing hours in the age‐adjusted model (p‐trend = 0.06) but not after more comprehensive adjustment. Our findings suggest that living with someone, but not other aspects of social connectedness, may be associated with decreased mortality for men with prostate cancer. What's new? Social support and interactions are associated with better health outcomes in general, but do they improve mortality rates for prostate cancer survivors? In this study, the authors found that survivors who lived alone did have substantially higher mortality than those who shared their home. No significant impact was observed, however, for other measures of social connectedness, such as visits with friends and relatives or time spent on social activities. Further research on specific factors that improve mortality in survivors who don't live alone is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Self-reported physical activity is inaccurate, yet few investigators attempt to adjust for measurement error when estimating risks for health outcomes. We estimated what the association between self-reported physical activity and colorectal cancer risk would be if physical activity had been assessed using accelerometry instead.Methods: We conducted a validation study in which 235 Australian adults completed a telephone-administered International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), and wore an accelerometer (Actigraph GT3X+) for 7 days. Using accelerometer-assessed physical activity as the criterion measure, we calculated validity coefficients and attenuation factors using a structural equation model adjusted for age, sex, education and body mass index. We then used a regression calibration approach to apply the attenuation factors to data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) to compute bias-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).Results: Average daily minutes of physical activity from the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ-short) were substantially higher than accelerometer-measured duration (55 versus 32 min). The validity coefficient (0.32; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.43) and attenuation factor (0.20; 95% CI: 0.12, 0.28) were low. The HRs for colorectal cancer risk for high (75th percentile; 411 min/week) versus low (25th percentile; 62 min/week) levels of self-reported physical activity were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.87, 1.05) before and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.47, 1.28) after bias adjustment.Conclusions: Over-estimation of physical activity by the IPAQ-short substantially attenuates the association between physical activity and colorectal cancer risk, suggesting that the protective effect of physical activity has been previously underestimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dietary intakes of B vitamins and other components involved in one-carbon metabolism, which is necessary for DNA replication, DNA repair, and regulation of gene expression, may be associated with carcinogenesis. We investigated associations between intakes of 11 nutrients (thiamine, riboflavin, niacin, pantothenic acid, vitamin B6, biotin, folate, vitamin B12, methionine, choline, and betaine) and gastric cancer risk. A total of 159 incident gastric cancer cases were identified from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (N = 41,513) and matched with 159 controls on year of birth, sex, and country of birth using incidence density sampling. Dietary intakes of nutrients were estimated at baseline (1990–1994) using a 121-item food frequency questionnaire. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using conditional logistic regression models adjusting for Helicobacter pylori infection, and other potential confounders. We observed a positive association between intake of niacin and overall gastric cancer risk (OR = 1.33, 95%CI: 1.01–1.75 per SD increment). For thiamine, heterogeneity by subtype (cardia and non-cardia) was found (Phet = 0.05), with weak evidence of an inverse association with cardia cancer risk. Our results do not support increasing intakes of B vitamins or other nutrients involved in one-carbon metabolism to reduce gastric cancer risk in a well-nourished population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Pancreatic cancer has one of the worst prognoses with 5-year survival below 10%. There is some evidence that alcohol consumption might increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. We examined associations of pre-diagnostic alcohol intake with (i) incidence of pancreatic cancer, and (ii) overall survival following pancreatic cancer.Methods: Usual alcohol intake was estimated at recruitment in 1990-1994 for 38,472 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study using recalled frequency and quantity of beverage-specific intake for 10-year periods from age 20. Pancreatic cancer incidence (C25 according to International Classification of Diseases for Oncology) and vital status were ascertained through to 30 September 2015. Cox regression was performed to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with lifetime, age 20-29, and baseline alcohol intakes.Results: By the end of follow-up (average 20.2 years), 239 incident cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed, of which 228 had died. No evidence of an association was observed between alcohol intake and risk of pancreatic cancer. Higher lifetime alcohol intake was associated with lower overall survival following a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer (mortality HR 1.09 per 10 g/day increment, 95% CI 1.00-1.19; p value = 0.04). A similar finding was observed for age 20-29 intake (HR 1.09 per 10 g/day increment, 95% CI 1.02-1.18; p value = 0.01) but not with baseline intake.Conclusions: We observed an association between lower alcohol use from an early age and improved survival following pancreatic cancer, but this finding needs to be confirmed by other studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Folate and other one-carbon metabolism nutrients are essential to enable DNA methylation to occur, but the extent to which their dietary intake influences methylation in adulthood is unclear. Objective: We assessed associations between dietary intake of these nutrients and DNA methylation in peripheral blood, overall and at specific genomic locations. Design: We conducted a cross-sectional study using baseline data and samples from 5186 adult participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). Nutrient intake was estimated from a food-frequency questionnaire. DNA methylation was measured by using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip array (HM450K). We assessed associations of intakes of folate, riboflavin, vitamins B-6 and B-12, methionine, choline, and betaine with methylation at individual cytosine-guanine dinucleotides (CpGs), and with median (genome-wide) methylation across all CpGs, CpGs in gene bodies, and CpGs in gene promoters. We also assessed associations with methylation at long interspersed nuclear element 1 (LINE-1), satellite 2 (Sat2), and Arthrobacter luteus restriction endonuclease (Alu) repetitive elements for a subset of participants. We used linear mixed regression, adjusting for age, sex, country of birth, smoking, energy intake from food, alcohol intake, Mediterranean diet score, and batch effects to assess loglinear associations with dietary intake of each nutrient. In secondary analyses, we assessed associations with low or high intakes defined by extreme quintiles. Results: No evidence of log-linear association was observed at P < 10−7 between the intake of one-carbon metabolism nutrients and methylation at individual CpGs. Low intake of riboflavin was associated with higher methylation at CpG cg21230392 in the first exon of PROM1 (P = 5.0 × 10−8). No consistent evidence of association was observed with genome-wide or repetitive element measures of methylation. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that dietary intake of onecarbon metabolism nutrients in adulthood, as measured by a foodfrequency questionnaire, has little association with blood DNA methylation. An association with low intake of riboflavin requires replication in independent cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigators in large-scale population health studies face increasing difficulties in recruiting representative samples of participants. Nonparticipation, item nonresponse, and attrition, when follow-up is involved, often result in highly selected samples even in well-designed studies. We aimed to assess the potential value of multilevel regression and poststratification, a method previously used to successfully forecast US presidential election results, for addressing biases due to nonparticipation in the estimation of population descriptive quantities in large cohort studies. The investigation was performed as an extensive case study using baseline data (2013–2014) from a large national health survey of Australian males (Ten to Men: The Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health). Analyses were performed in the open-source Bayesian computational package RStan. Results showed greater consistency and precision across population subsets of varying sizes when compared with estimates obtained using conventional survey sampling weights. Estimates for smaller population subsets exhibited a greater degree of shrinkage towards the national estimate. Multilevel regression and poststratification provides a promising analytical approach to addressing potential participation bias in the estimation of population descriptive quantities from large-scale health surveys and cohort studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Most studies investigating the association between resting heart rate (RHR) and mortality have focused on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and measured RHR at only one time point. We aimed to assess associations of RHR and changes in RHR over approximately a decade with overall and cause-specific mortality.Methods: We used data from participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with RHR measures at baseline (1990-1994; n=41 386; 9846 deaths) and at follow-up (2003-2007; n=21 692; 2818 deaths). RHR measures were taken by trained staff, using Dinamap monitors. Cox models were used to estimate HR and 95% CI for the associations between RHR and mortality. Vital status and cause of death were ascertained until August 2015 and December 2013, respectively.Results: After adjustment for confounders, including blood pressure and known medical conditions but not arrhythmias or atrial fibrillation, RHR was associated with a higher risk of death of similar magnitude for CVD (HR per 10 beats per minute (bpm)=1.11, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.16), cancer (HR=1.10, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.13) and other causes (HR=1.20, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.25). Higher mortality was observed for most cancer sites, including breast (HR=1.16, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.31), colorectal (HR=1.18, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.29), kidney (HR=1.27, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.57) and lung cancer (HR=1.19, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.29). Temporal increases in RHR were associated with higher mortality, particularly for individuals whose RHR increased by more than 15 bpm.Conclusions: RHR and changes in RHR over a decade are associated with mortality risk, including from causes other than CVD such as breast, colorectal or lung cancer. Monitoring of RHR may have utility in identifying individuals at higher mortality risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To test the hypothesis that more frequent consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks would be associated with increased risk of obesity-related cancers. Associations for artificially sweetened soft drinks were assessed for comparison.Design: Prospective cohort study with cancers identified by linkage to cancer registries. At baseline, participants completed a 121-item FFQ including separate questions about the number of times in the past year they had consumed sugar-sweetened or artificially sweetened soft drinks. Anthropometric measurements, including waist circumference, were taken and questions about smoking, leisure-time physical activity and intake of alcoholic beverages were completed.Setting: The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) is a prospective cohort study which recruited 41 514 men and women aged 40-69 years between 1990 and 1994. A second wave of data collection occurred in 2003-2007.Subjects: Data for 35 593 participants who developed 3283 incident obesity-related cancers were included in the main analysis.Results: Increasing frequency of consumption of both sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened soft drinks was associated with greater waist circumference at baseline. For sugar-sweetened soft drinks, the hazard ratio (HR) for obesity-related cancers increased as frequency of consumption increased (HR for consumption >1/d v. 1/d v. <1/month=1·00; 95 % CI 0·79, 1·27; P-trend=0·61).Conclusions: Our results add to the justification to minimise intake of sugar-sweetened soft drinks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In a previous paper, we had assumed that the risk of screen-detected breast cancer mostly reflects inherent risk, and the risk of whether a breast cancer is interval versus screen-detected mostly reflects risk of masking. We found that inherent risk was predicted by body mass index (BMI) and dense area (DA) or percent dense area (PDA), but not by non-dense area (NDA). Masking, however, was best predicted by PDA but not BMI. In this study, we aimed to investigate if these associations vary by tumor characteristics and mode of detection.Methods: We conducted a case-control study nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study of 244 screen-detected cases matched to 700 controls and 148 interval cases matched to 446 controls. DA, NDA and PDA were measured using the Cumulus software. Tumor characteristics included size, grade, lymph node involvement, and ER, PR, and HER2 status. Conditional and unconditional logistic regression were applied as appropriate to estimate the Odds per Adjusted Standard Deviation (OPERA) adjusted for age and BMI, allowing the association with BMI to be a function of age at diagnosis.Results: For screen-detected cancer, both DA and PDA were associated to an increased risk of tumors of large size (OPERA ~ 1.6) and positive lymph node involvement (OPERA ~ 1.8); no association was observed for BMI and NDA. For risk of interval versus screen-detected breast cancer, the association with risk for any of the three mammographic measures did not vary by tumor characteristics; an association was observed for BMI for positive lymph nodes (OPERA ~ 0.6). No associations were observed for tumor grade and ER, PR and HER2 status of tumor.Conclusions: Both DA and PDA were predictors of inherent risk of larger breast tumors and positive nodal status, whereas for each of the three mammographic density measures the association with risk of masking did not vary by tumor characteristics. This might raise the hypothesis that the risk of breast tumours with poorer prognosis, such as larger and node positive tumours, is intrinsically associated with increased mammographic density and not through delay of diagnosis due to masking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate relationships between mortality and circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25(OH)D3) and 25-hydroxyergocalciferol (25(OH)D2).Design: Case-cohort study within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). We measured 25(OH)D2 and 25(OH)D3 in archived dried blood spots by LC-MS/MS. Cox regression was used to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HR), with adjustment for confounders.Setting: General community.Subjects: The MCCS included 29 206 participants, who at recruitment in 1990-1994 were aged 40-69 years, had dried blood spots collected and no history of cancer. For the present study we selected participants who died by 31 December 2007 (n 2410) and a random sample (sub-cohort, n 2996).Results: The HR per 25 nmol/l increment in concentration of 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 were 0·86 (95 % CI 0·78, 0·96; P=0·007) and 0·85 (95 % CI 0·77, 0·95; P=0·003), respectively. Of 5108 participants, sixty-three (1·2 %) had detectable 25(OH)D2; their mean 25(OH)D concentration was 11·9 (95 % CI 7·3, 16·6) nmol/l higher (P<0·001). The HR for detectable 25(OH)D2 was 1·80 (95 % CI 1·09, 2·97; P=0·023); for those with detectable 25(OH)D2, the HR per 25 nmol/l increment in 25(OH)D was 1·06 (95 % CI 0·87, 1·29; P interaction=0·02). HR were similar for participants who reported being in good, very good or excellent health four years after recruitment.Conclusions: Total 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 concentrations were inversely associated with mortality. The finding that the inverse association for 25(OH)D was restricted to those with no detectable 25(OH)D2 requires confirmation in populations with higher exposure to ergocalciferol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Obstructive sleep apnoea is a common disorder with under-rated clinical impact, which is increasingly being recognised as having a major bearing on global disease burden. Men are especially vulnerable and become a priority group for preventative interventions. However, there is limited information on prevalence of the condition in Australia, its co-morbidities, and potential risk factors.Methods: We used data from 13,423 adult men included in the baseline wave of Ten to Men, an Australian national study of the health of males, assembled using stratified cluster sampling with oversampling from rural and regional areas. Those aged 18-55 years self-completed a paper-based questionnaire that included a question regarding health professional-diagnosed sleep apnoea, physical and mental health status, and health-related behaviours. Sampling weights were used to account for the sampling design when reporting the prevalence estimates. Odds ratios were used to describe the association between health professional-diagnosed sleep apnoea and potential correlates while adjusting for age, country of birth, and body-mass index (BMI).Results: Prevalence of self-reported health professional-diagnosed sleep apnoea increased from 2.2 % in age 18-25 years to 7.8 % in the age 45-55 years. Compared with those without sleep apnoea, those with sleep apnoea had significantly poorer physical, mental, and self-rated health as well as lower subjective wellbeing and poorer concentration/remembering (p < 0.001 for all). Sleep apnoea was significantly associated with older age (p < 0.001), unemployment (p < 0.001), asthma (p = 0.011), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/chronic bronchitis (p = 0.002), diabetes (p < 0.001), hypercholesterolemia (p < 0.001), hypertension (p < 0.001), heart attack (p < 0.001), heart failure (p < 0.001), angina (p < 0.001), depression (p < 0.001), post-traumatic stress disorder (p < 0.001), other anxiety disorders (p < 0.001), schizophrenia (p = 0.002), overweight/obesity (p < 0.001), insufficient physical activity (p = 0.006), smoking (p = 0.005), and high alcohol consumption (p < 0.001).Conclusion: Health professional-diagnosed sleep apnoea is relatively common, particularly in older males. Associations between sleep apnoea and cardiovascular, metabolic, respiratory, and psychiatric disorders have important clinical and public health implications. As men are especially vulnerable to sleep apnoea as well as some of its chronic co-morbidities, they are potentially a priority group for health interventions. Modifiable lifestyle related factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, level of physical activity and BMI are possible key foci for interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diabetes is a global public health issue. It is associated with significant disability, morbidity and mortality risks and substantial healthcare costs. Of great concern is the fact that its prevalence is rising, particularly amongst the young, while epidemiological data regarding the incidence, prevalence and complications of early-onset type 2 diabetes is noted to be sparse.Methods: We used data from the baseline wave of Ten to Men, a national cohort study of Australian males, to investigate the social and health-related correlates of Australian males aged 18-49 years reporting being diagnosed with diabetes.Results: The estimated prevalence of a self-reported diabetes diagnosis amongst Australian males aged 18-49 years was 2.95 % (95 % CI: 2.54-3.43 %). Within this age group, approximately 75 % of those diagnosed with diabetes are expected to be living with a known diagnosis of type 2 diabetes; the remainder are expected to be living with type 1 diabetes. Of the 20 social and health-related factors considered, we found evidence to support the association of eighteen factors after adjusting for age and body mass index. The strongest correlates of reporting a diabetes diagnosis, associated with a ≥2-fold increase in the odds of reporting diabetes were being aged 35-49 years, being unemployed, being obese, seeing a doctor for a check-up more frequently, reporting comorbid high blood pressure or physical or mental health comorbidities and worse self-rated and physical health status.Conclusion: Australian males aged 18-49 years who are living with a known diagnosis of diabetes are more likely to be socio-economically disadvantaged and suffer substantially worse health status than Australian males aged 18-49 years living without a diabetes diagnosis. Based on the associations detected in this study, older, single males living in regional areas who are socioeconomically disadvantaged, obese and/or who have other comorbidities may be an important subgroup to target for diabetes screening, disease management and prevention efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health (Ten to Men) used a complex sampling scheme to identify potential participants for the baseline survey. This raises important questions about when and how to adjust for the sampling design when analyzing data from the baseline survey.Methods: We describe the sampling scheme used in Ten to Men focusing on four important elements: stratification, multi-stage sampling, clustering and sample weights. We discuss how these elements fit together when using baseline data to estimate a population parameter (e.g., population mean or prevalence) or to estimate the association between an exposure and an outcome (e.g., an odds ratio). We illustrate this with examples using a continuous outcome (weight in kilograms) and a binary outcome (smoking status).Results: Estimates of a population mean or disease prevalence using Ten to Men baseline data are influenced by the extent to which the sampling design is addressed in an analysis. Estimates of mean weight and smoking prevalence are larger in unweighted analyses than weighted analyses (e.g., mean = 83.9 kg vs. 81.4 kg; prevalence = 18.0 % vs. 16.7 %, for unweighted and weighted analyses respectively) and the standard error of the mean is 1.03 times larger in an analysis that acknowledges the hierarchical (clustered) structure of the data compared with one that does not. For smoking prevalence, the corresponding standard error is 1.07 times larger. Measures of association (mean group differences, odds ratios) are generally similar in unweighted or weighted analyses and whether or not adjustment is made for clustering.Conclusions: The extent to which the Ten to Men sampling design is accounted for in any analysis of the baseline data will depend on the research question. When the goals of the analysis are to estimate the prevalence of a disease or risk factor in the population or the magnitude of a population-level exposure-outcome association, our advice is to adopt an analysis that respects the sampling design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We are very pleased to introduce Ten to Men, the Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health. Ten to Men is, to our knowledge, the largest national all-male cohort study in the world. It involves 15,988 males who were aged between 10 and 55 years when we recruited them in 2013/14. Together, the articles in this collection provide an overview of the study's methods, examples of some of the key questions it can answer, and guidance for researchers wishing to use it. Perhaps most importantly, the articles demonstrate the enormous potential Ten to Men has to make a real difference to our understanding of male health and the factors that influence it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health (Ten to Men) was established in 2011 to build the evidence base on male health to inform policy and program development.Methods: Ten to Men is a national longitudinal study with a stratified multi-stage cluster random sample design and oversampling in rural and regional areas. Household recruitment was conducted from October 2013 to July 2014. Males who were aged 10 to 55 years residing in private dwellings were eligible to participate. Data were collected via self-completion paper questionnaires (participants aged 15 to 55) and by computer-assisted personal interview (boys aged 10 to 14). Household and proxy health data for boys were collected from a parent via a self-completion paper-based questionnaire. Questions covered socio-demographics, health status, mental health and wellbeing, health behaviours, social determinants, and health knowledge and service use.Results: A cohort of 15,988 males aged between 10 and 55 years was recruited representing a response fraction of 35 %.Conclusion: Ten to Men is a unique resource for investigating male health and wellbeing. Wave 1 data are available for approved research projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Reported associations between protein intake from different sources and type 2 diabetes (T2D) have been inconsistent. Objective: We prospectively examined the relations of total, animal, and plant protein intakes with incident T2D. Design: We followed 21,523 participants (women: 61.7%) between 1990 and 2007 from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who were free of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and kidney stones at baseline. We also conducted a meta-analysis that included the results from our cohort and from 10 previous prospective studies. Results: A total of 929 new cases (4.3%) of T2D were documented during a mean of 11.7 y of follow-up. Multivariate-adjusted ORs for incident T2D in the highest compared with lowest quintiles of total and animal protein intakes as percentages of energy were 1.23 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.56; P-trend = 0.029) and 1.29 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.67; P-trend = 0.014), respectively. These associations appeared to be greater in men and in participants with normal baseline plasma glucose, body mass index, or blood pressure. Plant protein intake was inversely associated with incident T2D in women only (OR; 0.60; 95% CI: 0.37, 0.99). In the meta-analysis of 11 prospective cohort studies with 505,624 participants and 37,918 T2D cases (follow-up range: 5-24 y), pooled RRs for the comparison of the highest with lowest categories of total, animal, and plant protein intakes were 1.09 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.13), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.28), and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.02), respectively. Associations between animal protein intake and T2D were similar across sex, geographic region, length of follow-up, study quality, and method of expressing protein intake. An inverse association between plant protein intake and T2D was observed in women (RR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.00) and in US populations (RR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.84, 0.97). Conclusion: Higher intakes of total and animal protein were both associated with increased risks of T2D, whereas higher plant protein intake tended to be associated with lower risk of T2D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Age-related loss of skeletal muscle is associated with increased risk of functional limitation and cardiovascular (CV) mortality. In the elderly abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) can increase CV risk by altering aortic properties which may raise blood pressure and increase cardiac workload. This study investigated the association between low muscle mass and AAC in community-dwelling older Australians. Data for this cross-sectional analysis were drawn from a 2010 sub-study of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study in the setting of community-dwelling older adults. Three hundred and twenty-seven participants [mean age = 71 ± 6 years; mean BMI = 28 ± 5 kg/m(2); females n = 199 (62 %)] had body composition determined by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and AAC determined by radiography. Participants were stratified into tertiles of sex-specific BMI-normalised appendicular lean mass (ALM). Those in the lowest tertile were considered to have low relative muscle mass. Aortic calcification score (ACS) was determined visually as the extent of calcification on the aortic walls between L1 and L4 vertebrae (range: 0-24). Severe AAC was defined as ACS ≥ 6. Prevalence of any AAC was highest in participants with low relative muscle mass (74 %) compared to the middle (65 %) and upper (53 %) tertiles (p trend = 0.006). The lower ALM/BMI tertile had increased odds (Odds ratio = 2.3; 95 % confidence interval: 1.1-4.6; p = 0.021) of having any AAC; and having more severe AAC (2.2; 1.2-4.0; p = 0.009) independent of CV risk factors, serum calcium and physical activity. AAC is more prevalent and severe in community-dwelling older adults with low relative muscle mass. Maintaining muscle mass could form part of a broader primary prevention strategy in reducing AAC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Global DNA methylation has been reported to be associated with urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC) by studies using blood samples collected at diagnosis. Using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 assay, we derived genome-wide measures of blood DNA methylation and assessed them for their prospective association with UCC risk.Methods: We used 439 case-control pairs from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study matched on age, sex, country of birth, DNA sample type, and collection period. Conditional logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios (OR) of UCC risk per s.d. of each genome-wide measure of DNA methylation and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for potential confounders. We also investigated associations by disease subtype, sex, smoking, and time since blood collection.Results: The risk of superficial UCC was decreased for individuals with higher levels of our genome-wide DNA methylation measure (OR=0.71, 95% CI: 0.54-0.94; P=0.02). This association was particularly strong for current smokers at sample collection (OR=0.47, 95% CI: 0.27-0.83). Intermediate levels of our genome-wide measure were associated with decreased risk of invasive UCC. Some variation was observed between UCC subtypes and the location and regulatory function of the CpGs included in the genome-wide measures of methylation.Conclusions: Higher levels of our genome-wide DNA methylation measure were associated with decreased risk of superficial UCC and intermediate levels were associated with reduced risk of invasive disease. These findings require replication by other prospective studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: It is plausible that breast tissue is particularly susceptible to carcinogens, including ethanol, between menarche and the first full-term pregnancy ("first pregnancy"). There is some epidemiological evidence that intake before the first pregnancy is more closely associated with risk of breast cancer than is intake thereafter. We examined this association using lifetime alcohol consumption data from a prospective cohort study.Methods: We calculated usual alcohol intake for age periods 15-19 years and for 10-year period from age 20 to current age (in grams per day) using recalled frequency and quantity of beverage-specific consumption for 13,630 parous women who had their first pregnancy at age 20 years or later, had no cancer history and were aged 40-69 years at enrollment. Cox regression was performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95 % confidence intervals (CIs).Results: A total of 651 incident invasive adenocarcinomas of the breast were diagnosed during a mean follow-up of 16.1 years. Alcohol consumption was low overall with only a few drinking ≥40 g/day. Intake before the first pregnancy was markedly lower (mean intake: 2.5 g/day; abstention: 58.8 %) than intake thereafter (mean intake: 6.0 g/day; abstention: 33.6 %). Any alcohol intake before the first pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (HR 1.35, 95 % CI 1.10-1.66 for drinking compared with abstention), whereas any intake after the first pregnancy was not (HR 0.89, 95 % CI 0.72-1.09).Conclusions: Limiting alcohol intake before the first pregnancy might reduce women's risk of breast cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of addressing health disparities experienced by boys and men reached tangible prominence in Australia with adoption of the 2010 National Male Health Policy and the establishment of a national longitudinal study on male health—Ten to Men. Ten to Men is based on a holistic model of health with a strong focus on social determinants and health and well-being over the life course. Given the life course focus, we set out to assess if health-related characteristics and the correlates of self-rated health differ across the life course among four sociologically defined generations of Australian males. While some differences in the correlates of good or excellent health were observed across generations, addressing obesity and depression appear to be important for improving the health of Australian males of all ages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study prospectively investigates associations between fatty acids assessed in plasma phospholipids (PPL) and diet, and breast cancer risk, including subgroups defined by hormone receptor status. Methods: We performed a case-cohort analysis within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study using a random sample of 2,021 women and 470 breast cancer cases. At baseline, fatty acids were assessed in PPL and estimated from diet using a 121-item food frequency questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox regression. Results: Breast cancer risk was positively associated with %PPL saturated fatty acids (SFA); HRQ5vsQ1 = 1.64 (95 % CI 1.17-2.30); p trend = 0.004. Positive associations were found for ER+ or PR+ tumors for %PPL SFA and palmitic acid and for ER-/PR- tumors for %PPL n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA), TFA, TFA 16:1, and TFA 18:1n-7 (all p homogeneity <0.05). Breast cancer risk was inversely associated with dietary docosapentaenoic acid (DPA); HRQ5vsQ1 = 0.57 (95 % CI 0.40-0.82); p trend = 0.001 [with similar inverse associations observed for dietary docosahexaenoic (DHA) and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA)] and positively associated with dietary n-6:n-3 PUFA. Inverse associations for ER-/PR- tumors were found for dietary dihomo-γ-linolenic acid (DGLA) for older women (p homogeneity = 0.04). Conclusions: Breast cancer risk was positively associated with %PPL SFA and the ratio of dietary n-6 to n-3 PUFA and inversely associated with dietary long-chain n-3 PUFA intake. Some associations between fatty acids and breast cancer varied by age and tumor phenotype defined by hormone receptor status. Increased intake of fish and other foods rich in long-chain n-3 PUFAs and reduced n-6 PUFA intake might reduce breast cancer risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Conventionally, cohort studies have assessed the association between alcohol and all-cause mortality by using alcohol intake at enrolment. Methods In the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, participants were asked about usual frequency and quantity of beverage-specific alcohol intake for 10-year periods starting at age 20 from which current, past and lifetime intakes were calculated. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios for mortality for 39 577 participants of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study aged 40-69 at baseline. Results After a mean follow-up of 15 years/person, we identified 4639 deaths. Associations between all-cause mortality and lifetime, current (baseline) and past intake were J shaped, with lower mortality at low intake (e.g. <40 g/dayfor men and 10 g/day for women using lifetime intake) and elevated mortality at higher intake. For men, consistent light-to-moderate drinking (>0-39/>0-39 g/day) from age 20 to baseline age was associated with a 16% lower mortality, while heavy drinking at both ages (≥80/≥40 and ≥40/0 g/day) was associated with higher mortality compared with stable abstinence. Conclusions Our findings support a reduced mortality risk associated with low-dose drinking but also highlight a higher mortality risk for consistent heavy drinking from a young age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mammographic density measurements are associated with risk of breast cancer. Few studies have investigated the concurrent associations of mammographic dense and nondense areas, body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2), and ages at mammogram and diagnosis with breast cancer risk. We conducted a matched, case-control study nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (cohort recruitment in 1990–1994 and follow-up until 2007) to estimate the associations between these factors and breast cancer risk under alternative causal models. Mammographic dense area was positively associated with risk, and the strength of this association was only slightly influenced by the choice of the causal model (relative risk per 1 standard deviation = 1.50, 95% confidence interval: 1.32, 1.70). Mammographic nondense area was inversely associated with risk under the assumption that fat in the body and fat in the breast cause breast cancer through independent mechanisms (relative risk per 1 standard deviation = 0.75, 95% confidence interval: 0.65, 0.86), whereas it was not associated with risk under the assumption that they are both proxies of adiposity. Knowledge about the biological mechanisms regulating the role played by mammographic nondense area and body fat on breast cancer risk is essential to better estimate their impacts on individual risk. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Observational data suggested that supplementation with vitamin D could reduce risk of infection, but trial data are inconsistent. Objective: We aimed to examine the effect of oral vitamin D supplementation on antibiotic use. Design: We conducted a post hoc analysis of data from pilot D-Health, which is a randomized trial carried out in a general community setting between October 2010 and February 2012. A total of 644 Australian residents aged 60-84 y were randomly assigned to receive monthly doses of a placebo (n = 214) or 30,000 (n = 215) or 60,000 (n = 215) IU oral cholecalciferol for ⩽12 mo. Antibiotics prescribed during the intervention period were ascertained by linkage with pharmacy records through the national health insurance scheme (Medicare Australia). Results: People who were randomly assigned 60,000 IU cholecalciferol had nonsignificant 28% lower risk of having antibiotics prescribed at least once than did people in the placebo group (RR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.48, 1.07). In analyses stratified by age, in subjects aged ⩾70 y, there was a significant reduction in antibiotic use in the highdose vitamin D compared with placebo groups (RR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.32, 0.90), whereas there was no effect in participants aged <70 y (RR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.58, 1.97) (P-interaction = 0.1). Conclusion: Although this study was a post hoc analysis and statistically nonsignificant, this trial lends some support to the hypothesis that supplementation with 60,000 IU vitamin D/mo is associated with lower risk of infection, particularly in older adults. The trial was registered at the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (anzctr.org.au) as ACTRN12609001063202 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Missing data often cause problems in longitudinal cohort studies with repeated follow-up waves. Research in this area has focussed on analyses with missing data in repeated measures of the outcome, from which participants with missing exposure data are typically excluded. We performed a simulation study to compare complete-case analysis with Multiple imputation (MI) for dealing with missing data in an analysis of the association of waist circumference, measured at two waves, and the risk of colorectal cancer (a completely observed outcome). Methods: We generated 1,000 datasets of 41,476 individuals with values of waist circumference at waves 1 and 2 and times to the events of colorectal cancer and death to resemble the distributions of the data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Three proportions of missing data (15, 30 and 50%) were imposed on waist circumference at wave 2 using three missing data mechanisms: Missing Completely at Random (MCAR), and a realistic and a more extreme covariate-dependent Missing at Random (MAR) scenarios. We assessed the impact of missing data on two epidemiological analyses: 1) the association between change in waist circumference between waves 1 and 2 and the risk of colorectal cancer, adjusted for waist circumference at wave 1; and 2) the association between waist circumference at wave 2 and the risk of colorectal cancer, not adjusted for waist circumference at wave 1. Results: We observed very little bias for complete-case analysis or MI under all missing data scenarios, and the resulting coverage of interval estimates was near the nominal 95% level. MI showed gains in precision when waist circumference was included as a strong auxiliary variable in the imputation model. Conclusions: This simulation study, based on data from a longitudinal cohort study, demonstrates that there is little gain in performing MI compared to a complete-case analysis in the presence of up to 50% missing data for the exposure of interest when the data are MCAR, or missing dependent on covariates. MI will result in some gain in precision if a strong auxiliary variable that is not in the analysis model is included in the imputation model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fruit and vegetable intake may protect against pancreatic cancer, since fruits and vegetables are rich in potentially cancer-preventive nutrients. Most case-control studies have found inverse associations between fruit and vegetable intake and pancreatic cancer risk, although bias due to reporting error cannot be ruled out. In most prospective studies, inverse associations have been weaker and imprecise because of small numbers of cases. The authors examined fruit and vegetable intake in relation to pancreatic cancer risk in a pooled analysis of 14 prospective studies from North America, Europe, and Australia (study periods between 1980 and 2005). Relative risks and 2-sided 95% confidence intervals were estimated separately for the 14 studies using the Cox proportional hazards model and were then pooled using a random-effects model. Of 862,584 men and women followed for 7−20 years, 2,212 developed pancreatic cancer. The pooled multivariate relative risks of pancreatic cancer per 100-g/day increase in intake were 1.01 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99, 1.03) for total fruits and vegetables, 1.01 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.03) for total fruits, and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.06) for total vegetables. Associations were similar for men and women separately and across studies. These results suggest that fruit and vegetable intake during adulthood is not associated with a reduced pancreatic cancer risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little evidence exists regarding associations between age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and moderate alcohol consumption, patterns of consumption, or different types of alcoholic beverage. The authors examined associations between AMD prevalence and alcohol intake using 20,963 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study aged 40–69 years at baseline (1990–1994). Participants' alcohol consumption was determined from a structured interview at baseline. At follow-up from 2003 to 2007, digital macula photographs of both eyes were taken and evaluated for early and late AMD signs. Drinking more than 20 g of alcohol per day was associated with an approximate 20% increase in the odds of early AMD (odds ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.38; P = 0.004) when compared with those who reported no alcohol intake at baseline, having adjusted for sex, age, smoking, country of birth, education, physical activity, and energy from food. This positive association was apparent for wine, beer, and spirits. The estimates were similar for both sexes. The odds ratio for those drinking more than 20 g of alcohol per day for late AMD was 1.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.85, 2.45; P = 0.17). These results show a modest association between alcohol consumption and increased AMD risk. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) has been found to be associated with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Reported associations have been questioned, as they are opposite those for Alzheimer’s disease and cardiovascular disease. The authors examined associations between APOE genotype and AMD using a case-control study (2,287 cases and 2,287 controls individually matched on age, sex, and country of origin) nested within Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study participants aged 48–86 years at AMD detection. The odds ratio for early AMD among participants with ε2-containing genotypes (ε2ε2/ε2ε3/ε2ε4) was 1.32 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11, 1.58; P = 0.002) versus persons with genotype ε3ε3. Associations with early AMD varied by smoking status; ε2-containing genotypes were positively associated with early AMD for never and previous smokers (never smokers: odds ratio (OR) = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.76 (P = 0.003); previous smokers: OR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.93 (P = 0.05)) but not for current smokers (OR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.34, 1.30 (P = 0.2; interaction P = 0.05). The ε4-containing genotype group (ε3ε4/ε4ε4) had an inverse association with early AMD among current smokers only (OR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.77 (P = 0.005)). These results highlight the importance of stratifying by smoking status in elderly populations. Smokers who survive to old age may be more likely to possess unknown genotypes which modify exposure-disease associations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Evidence for an association between age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and obesity is inconsistent. The authors examined associations between adiposity and AMD prevalence using 21,287 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study aged 40–69 years at baseline (1990–1994). For men, each increase of 0.1 in waist/hip ratio (∼1 standard deviation) was associated with a 13% increase in the odds of early AMD (odds ratio = 1.13, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.26; P = 0.03) and a 75% increase in the odds of late AMD (odds ratio = 1.75, 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 2.76; P = 0.02). No other adiposity measure was associated with early AMD for men. Smoking status modified the relation between waist/hip ratio and early AMD (P = 0.05), with no association for former smokers. For women, there were inverse associations with early AMD for all adiposity measures (odds ratios = 0.89–0.93; P = 0.002–0.02), but no associations were observed for late AMD. This study confirms abdominal obesity as an AMD risk factor for men despite a survivorship effect from competing risks in morbidity and mortality. The inverse associations for women may reflect weaker true positive associations with AMD that are insufficient to overcome the survivorship effect. New data are provided on complex interactions between environmental exposures and AMD risk. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Simple Summary: Australia has one of the world's highest breast cancer incidences. For most women who are not classified as at high risk, eligibility and frequency of breast cancer screening in Australia is based solely on their age. Breast cancer risk models can help to optimise early detection and management of breast cancer. We evaluated six commonly used models over 15 years follow-up using an Australian community-based cohort of 7608 women aged 50–65 years. The BOADICEA and IBIS models best discriminated women who were at higher risk of developing breast cancer from those at lower risk, but no model apart from BOADICEA accurately predicted absolute risk across the risk spectrum. The BOADICEA model could be of clinical use for women of similar demography. Prospective validation of risk models is needed to assess their clinical utility, particularly over the longer term. We evaluated the performance of six commonly used breast cancer risk models (IBIS, BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, BRCAPRO-BCRAT, BCRAT, and iCARE-lit). 15-year risk scores were estimated using lifestyle factors and family history measures from 7608 women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who were aged 50–65 years and unaffected at commencement of follow-up two (conducted in 2003–2007), of whom 351 subsequently developed breast cancer. Risk discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic and calibration using the expected/observed number of incident cases across the spectrum of risk by age group (50–54, 55–59, 60–65 years) and family history of breast cancer. C-statistics were higher for BOADICEA (0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56–0.62) and IBIS (0.57, 95% CI 0.54–0.61) than the other models (p-difference ≤ 0.04). No model except BOADICEA calibrated well across the spectrum of 15-year risk (p-value < 0.03). The performance of BOADICEA and IBIS was similar across age groups and for women with or without a family history. For middle-aged Australian women, BOADICEA and IBIS had the highest discriminatory accuracy of the six risk models, but apart from BOADICEA, no model was well-calibrated across the risk spectrum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supplemental digital content is available in the text. Introduction: Physical activity may affect health via DNA methylation. The epigenetic influences of sedentary behaviors such as television viewing are unknown. We performed a genomewide study of DNA methylation in peripheral blood in relation to physical activity and television viewing time. Methods: DNA methylation was measured using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450K BeadChip array in blood samples collected at baseline (N = 5513) and follow-up (N = 1249) from participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. At baseline, times per week of leisure-time physical activity were self-reported. At follow-up, the International Physical Activity Questionnaire was used to assess MET-hours per week of total and leisure-time physical activity and hours per day of television viewing time. Linear mixed models were used to assess associations between physical activity and television viewing measures and DNA methylation at individual CpG sites, adjusted for potential confounders and batch effects. Results: At follow-up, total physical activity was associated with DNA methylation at cg10266336 (P = 6.0 × 10−9), annotated to the SAA2 gene. Weaker evidence of associations (P < 1.0 × 10−5) were observed for an additional 14 CpG sites with total physical activity, for 7 CpG sites with leisure-time physical activity, and for 9 CpG sites with television viewing time. Changes in leisure-time physical activity between baseline and follow-up were associated with methylation changes (P < 0.05) at four of the seven CpG sites with weaker evidence of cross-sectional associations with leisure-time physical activity. Conclusion: Physical activity and television viewing may be associated with blood DNA methylation, a potential pathway to chronic disease development. Further research using accelerometer data and larger sample sizes is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supplemental digital content is available in the text. Introduction: Long-term effects of physical activity and television (TV) viewing on mortality have been inferred from observational studies. The associations observed do not allow for inferences about the effects of population interventions and could be subject to bias due to time-varying confounding. Methods: Using data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study, collected in 1999–2000 (T0), 2004–2005 (T1), and 2011–2012 (T2), we applied the parametric g-formula to estimate cumulative risks of death under hypothetical interventions on physical activity and/or TV viewing determined from self-report while adjusting for time-varying confounding. Results: In the 6377 participants followed up for 13 yr from 2004 to 2005 to death or censoring in 2017, 781 participants died. The observed cumulative risk of death was 12.2%. The most effective hypothetical intervention was to increase weekly physical activity to >300 min (risk ratio (RR), 0.66 (0.46–0.86) compared with a "worst-case" scenario; RR, 0.83 (0.73–0.94) compared with no intervention). Reducing daily TV viewing to <2 h in addition to physical activity interventions did not show added survival benefits. Reducing TV viewing alone was least effective in reducing mortality (RR, 0.85 (0.60–1.10) compared with the worst-case scenario; RR, 1.06 (0.93–1.20) compared with no intervention). Conclusions: Our findings suggested that sustained interventions to increase physical activity could lower all-cause mortality over a 13-yr period, and there might be limited gain from intervening to reduce TV viewing time in a relatively healthy population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Depression is a significant public health issue for men, however men are less likely to use mental health services. Alternative interventions, such as physical activity, may be of value for this population. This study sought to determine what levels and intensity of physical activity are associated with lower depression prevalence in Australian men.Methods: Using baseline data from 13,884 participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health we compared current depression in men who completed the recommended 150 min of physical activity in the past week with men who did not. Duration of activity was examined using logistic regression with restricted cubic splines. Intensity of physical activity was examined by isotemporal substitution of hours of moderate activity with hours of vigorous activity.Results: Men who completed at least 150 min/week of activity had lower odds of moderate/severe depression symptoms. Duration of activity was inversely associated with moderate/severe depression symptoms. Among physically active men, each additional hour of moderate activity replaced with vigorous activity was associated with lower odds of depression.Limitations: This is a cross-sectional study and so cannot determine causal direction in the relationship between physical activity and depression symptoms observed. Self-report measures of physical activity are widely used but are not as accurate as biometric measurement.Conclusions: In adult men, meeting minimum recommendations is associated with lower current depression. Increased duration and greater intensity of activity were both associated with further reduction in prevalence. Promoting higher levels of physical activity is potentially an intervention for improving men's mental wellbeing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Inverse associations between vitamin D status and risk of type 2 diabetes observed in epidemiological studies could be biased by confounding and reverse causality. We investigated the prospective association between vitamin D status and type 2 diabetes and the possible role of reverse causality.Methods: We conducted a case-cohort study within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS), including a random sample of 628 participants who developed diabetes and a sex-stratified random sample of the cohort (n = 1884). Concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) was measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in samples collected at recruitment. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of type 2 diabetes for quartiles of 25(OH)D relative to the lowest quartile and per 25 nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D, adjusting for confounding variables.Results: The ORs for the highest versus lowest 25(OH)D quartile and per 25 nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D were 0.60 (95% CI: 0.44, 0.81) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.92; p = 0.004), respectively. In participants who reported being in good/very good/excellent health approximately four years after recruitment, ORs for the highest versus lowest 25(OH)D quartile and per 25 nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D were 0.46 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.72) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.56, 0.89; p = 0.003), respectively.Conclusions: In this sample of middle-aged Australians, vitamin D status was inversely associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes, and this association did not appear to be explained by reverse causality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Objective: There is evidence to suggest that elevated glucose concentration and clinical diabetes are associated with osteoarthritis (OA). However, the association may be confounded by knee symptoms, concomitant treatment for OA or diabetes. We performed a longitudinal cohort study to examine the relationship between serum glucose concentration and knee structure in adults with no knee symptoms or diabetes. Methods: 179 participants who had fasting serum glucose measurements at 1990–4, with no knee symptoms or diabetes (physician-diagnosed or fasting serum glucose ≥7mmol/L), underwent knee MRI in 2003–4 and 2 years later. Body mass index was measured at 1990–4 and 2003–4. Cartilage volume and bone marrow lesions were determined from MRI at 2003–4 and 2006–7. Results: Fasting serum glucose concentration was positively associated with the rate of tibial cartilage volume loss over 2 years in women (B =44.2mm3, 95% CI 4.6, 83.8) but not in men (B =6.0mm3, 95% CI −68.5, 80.6). Fasting serum glucose concentration was positively associated with incident bone marrow lesions in women (OR=5.76, 95% CI 1.06, 31.21) but not in men (OR=0.11, 95% CI 0.01, 1.79) with significant gender difference (p =0.001 for interaction). Conclusion: Increased fasting serum glucose concentration in a non-diabetic population was associated with adverse structural changes at the knee in women but not in men, suggesting that there may be susceptibility to knee structural change even below the arbitrary “diabetic range” of serum glucose levels. The sex differences warrant further investigation as this may be one mechanism underlying the sex difference in knee OA. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article discusses research which was conducted to determine whether the angle of the trochlear groove is associated with the rate of loss of patella cartilage volume and whether this association is influenced by particular modifiable and nonmodifiable factors. Researchers evaluated 297 people with no history of knee pathologic disease. They found that a more flattened proximal trochlear groove is associated with increased patella cartilage volume loss, particularly for physically active men, and that that lifestyle factors, such as physical activity, may modify the association between joint incongruity and cartilage loss and can be further affected by subjects' characteristics such as gender.

• Etiologic factors for primary myelodysplastic syndromes remain largely unknown. • Smoking ≥20 cigarettes/day was associated with nearly two-fold increased risk of myelodysplastic syndromes. • Alcohol consumption was also associated with increased risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]