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Predicting financial distress is one of the most well-known issues in corporate finance. Investors and other stakeholders often use prediction models as relevant tools for identifying weaknesses to eliminate potential threats to business partners. This paper aims to present an effective logistic regression model for a one-year-ahead prediction of financial distress with the minimum set of predictors as a part of risk management. The paper is motivated by various works dealing with the curse of dimensionality phenomenon and the observation that the increasing number of logit-model predictors does not improve the prediction—on the contrary. Monitoring the significance of improvement in the stepwise growth of the predictor set is used to identify the minimal set. Logistic regression with cross-validation is involved in the modelling process. The proposed model is compared with other logit-based models used regionally or globally on the same large dataset, which underlines the model validity and robustness. The proposed logit model contains only two significant predictors and achieves excellent performance metrics compared to other models. The added value of the article lies in a simple application for managers, investors, creditors, financial institutions, and others with a reliable classification of companies into healthy and unhealthy company groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of electricity in formation and performance of rural non-farm entrepreneurial ventures is widely debated. This study aims to understand how, in India, access to household electricity impacts rural households' decisions to take up entrepreneurial activities, operated within household premises. A panel dataset of nearly twenty thousand rural households carried out in the years 2004–05 and 2011–12 has been used to explore the impact of access to electricity on participation in rural non-farm enterprises using panel fixed-effects logit models. Further, the role of electricity access on earnings of non-farm enterprises is studied using Heckman two-stage selection models. It is concluded that electricity has a positive effect on the households' decision to establish non-farm enterprises operating within home premises. It is also found that, in the presence of the household electricity access, the income from business increases by 35.2% on an average. Upon extending the analysis to different groups of states, similar outcomes are observed for relatively rich states, states with relatively higher levels of rural electrification and states with relatively lower rates of rural electrification. In case of relatively poorer states, access to electricity enables a household to participate in the non-farm business sector but does not seem to have a statistically significant impact on their business income. • Access to electricity enables participation in home-based non-farm businesses in rural India. • Access to electricity increases earnings from such businesses, enhancing rural livelihood opportunities. • These results are robust across states with different electrification rates and relatively richer states. • In poorer states, electricity access enables participation in non-farm business, but has insignificant effect on earnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For satisfying the growing demand of parking in urban area and relieving traffic congestion in downtown, under the condition of urban subway park-and-ride (P&R), the methods of site selection and scale calculation of parking lots are studied. Selecting Xi'an Rd. business circle in Dalian as study object, both survey and analysis of parking demand were conducted. Based on the principle of random equilibrium selection, the logit model of P&R demand was constructed. Then the forecasting models of parking demand both in downtown and peripheral zones were proposed respectively. Using the minimum travel distance of vehicles as the objective function, site selection optimization model of P&R station was constructed. The calculation methods of scale for parking lots in both downtown and P&R station were also processed. For the case of Xi'an Rd. business circle, not only the site of P&R station was planned, but the scale of parking berth was calculated. According to the plan and calculation, the total number of parking berth has increased from 3380 to 4011. Among the planned berths, 75.7 % are in the business circle and 24.3 % in P&R stations are outside downtown. Thus, the number of planned berths in the business circle has actually decreased by about 8 %. The research indicates that, for downtown with subway system, by reducing parking berths in downtown and increasing them in P&R stations outside the urban area, this planning method is more beneficial to relieve the problems of parking and traffic congestion in downtown than traditional method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effects of Internet display advertising using cookie-level data from a field experiment at a financial tools provider. The experiment randomized assignment of cookies to treatment (firm ads) and control conditions (charity ads), enabling the authors to handle different sources of selection bias, including targeting algorithms and browsing behavior. They analyze display ad effects for users at different stages of the company's purchase funnel (i.e., nonvisitor, visitor, authenticated user, and converted customer) and find that display advertising positively affects visitation to the firm's website for users in most stages of the purchase funnel, but not for those who previously visited the site without creating an account. Using a binary logit model, the authors calculate marginal effects and elasticities by funnel stage and analyze the potential value of reallocating display ad impressions across users at different stages. Expected visits increase almost 10% when display ad impressions are partially reallocated from nonvisitors and visitors to authenticated users. The authors also show that results from the controlled experiment data differ significantly from those computed using standard correlational approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Karlson–Holm–Breen (KHB) method has rapidly become popular as a way of separating the impact of confounding from rescaling when comparing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates in nonlinear probability models such as the logit and probit. In this note, we show that the same estimates can be obtained in a somewhat different way to that advanced by Karlson, Holm, and Breen in their original article and implemented in the user-written Stata command khb. While the KHB method and this revised KHB method both work by holding constant the residual variance of the model, the revised method makes comparisons across multiple nested models easier than the original method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Pedestrians face high risk while crossing unsignalized intersections. • Temporal gap acceptance behavior of pedestrians at unsignalized intersection are studied. • Used videography and manual observations for data collections. • The pedestrians accept rolling gaps to cross unsignalized intersections, reducing the size of the critical gap. • Peer pedestrians and approaching vehicle composition have a strong effect on pedestrian crossing behavior. Vehicle heterogeneity, lack of lane discipline, lack of infrastructure facilities, and weak enforcement of traffic rules are all characteristics of Indian traffic. These characteristics make Indian roads difficult for non-motorized road users, especially pedestrians. Most intersections in urban areas in India are unsignalized, which results in complex interactions between pedestrians and motorists. This study aims to understand pedestrian gap acceptance behavior at unsignalized intersections in India under heterogeneous traffic conditions. Pedestrian data were collected from six unsignalized intersections in the city of Kanpur. The critical gap was estimated using Wu's (2006) macroscopic model, and then the effects of several variables on the critical gap were studied. A discrete choice model (binary logit model) was developed to understand the choice of accepted and rejected vehicular gaps depending on traffic, road, and peer pedestrian characteristics. The mean critical headway was 3.76 s using Wu's model. The behavioral analysis revealed that pedestrians accept rolling gaps to cross unsignalized intersections, resulting in a reduction of the size of the critical gap. The adoption of rolling gap behavior can be attributed to the unyielding behavior of motorists, which forces pedestrians to accept short vehicular gaps in the traffic stream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors propose a simulated maximum likelihood estimation method for the random coefficient logit model using aggregate data, accounting for heterogeneity and endogeneity. The method allows for two sources of randomness in observed market shares: unobserved product characteristics and sampling error. Because of the latter, the method is suitable when sample sizes underlying the shares are finite. In contrast, Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes's commonly used approach assumes that observed shares have no sampling error. The method can be viewed as a generalization of Villas-Boas and Winer's approach and is closely related to Petrin and Train's “control function” approach. The authors show that the proposed method provides unbiased and efficient estimates of demand parameters. They also obtain endogeneity test statistics as a by-product, including the direction of endogeneity bias. The model can be extended to incorporate Markov regime-switching dynamics in parameters and is open to other extensions based on maximum likelihood. The benefits of the proposed approach are achieved by assuming normality of the unobserved demand attributes, an assumption that imposes constraints on the types of pricing behaviors that are accommodated. However, the authors find in simulations that demand estimates are fairly robust to violations of these assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated consumers' motivations and perceptions of fish obtained from different production methods, namely wild or farmed. Data were collected from 526 consumers via face-to-face interviews in the seven regions of Turkey. A logistic regression model was designed for the consumers of different fish production methods. Results of the study demonstrate that consumers perceive wild and farmed fish differently. Furthermore, consumers have different perceptions of the following factors that also effect consumption: convenience, variety, origin, confidence, accessibility, freshness, and reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because Mexico is immersed in a world economy that is constantly changing, it is vitally important to measure the effects of agricultural policy through the use, of the resources available to the public treasury. Within this context, part of the resources that the producer receives as subsidies are through PROCAMPO. The general objective was to determine whether production and consumption (among other variables) have a relationship of interdependence of PROCAMPO at the moment in which the producer decides to participate or not in the program; that is, are these variables conditioning the producer's decisions regarding PROCAMPO? and to what extent? In this sense, the methodology to be followed was through the use of the logit model, where the results obtained; through this qualitative dependent variable test, it showed that the probability that a producer from the municipality of Villaflores, Chiapas, joins PROCAMPO, increases 55%; however, the probability that a producer joins the same program increases 91% when he grows corn. It is concluded that the independent variables of production and consumption condition the decisions of the agricultural producer with respect to PROCAMPO, in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent efficient monitoring and traffic management of large-scale mixed traffic networks still remain a challenge for both traffic researchers and practitioners. The difficulty in modeling route guidance evacuation of pedestrian-vehicle mixed flow lies in mixed flow and uneven or heterogeneous network flow. Existing studies have demonstrated that multi-region control can display different layers of traffic state measurement and control, and incorporate heterogeneity effect in the large-scale network dynamics. The optimal perimeter control can manipulate the percentages of flows that transfer between two regions, offering real-time traffic management strategies to improve the network performance. However, the effect of route guidance evacuation integrated with perimeter control strategies in case of heterogeneous traffic networks is still unexplored. The paper advances in this direction by firstly extending route choice behavior aggregation with perimeter control. For an evacuation study, we consider a campus and its surrounding traffic network that can be classified into two types of networks: the first includes emergency areas that involve a large number of evacuees, and the second includes roads that lead to different destinations. The second network consists of some regions with different evacuation directions. Based on the configuration, this paper proposes a route evacuation guidance control strategy that addresses traffic flow first assignment between regions by controlling perimeter flow with the help of Macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) representation and to guide evacuates' route choice at intersections by LOGIT model in regions. In addition, comparison results show that the proposed route guidance strategy has considerable potential to improve performances and equilibrium conditions (i.e. system optimum and user equilibrium) on the overall network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capturing the dynamics in passenger flow and system utilization over time and space is extremely important for railway operators. Previous studies usually estimated passenger flow using automatic fare collection data, and their applications are limited to a single stopping pattern and/or a single type of ticket. However, the conventional railway in Taiwan provides four types of ticket and five types of train service with a number of stopping patterns. This study develops a comprehensive framework and corresponding algorithms to map passenger flow and evaluate system utilization. A multinomial logit model is constructed and incorporated in the algorithms to estimate passenger train selection behavior. Results from the empirical studies demonstrate that the developed framework and algorithms can successfully match passengers with train services. With this tool, operators can efficiently examine passenger flow and service utilization, thereby quickly adjusting their service strategies accordingly to improve system performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current knowledge-based society and existing demand of employers have generated a need for highly educated workers with different skills and competencies within the workplace. Information on emerging skills needs has become crucial, especially as several sectors already face skill shortages and a mismatch of supply and demand. The aim of this paper is to gain empirical insight into the determination of the propensity of enterprises to recruit high skill (HS) workers and to explore the main characteristics affecting it. The empirical analysis is based on the Italian Excelsior Information survey data, the only Italian enterprises survey that provides information about specific characteristics of the job profiles required by the enterprises, and used in the application for the identification of the high skill needs in the province of Rome (Italy) in years 2003-2007. A logit model is estimated on these Excelsior data to define the probability to hire HS workers with different characteristics. The logit model is a nonlinear regression model, where the dependent variable is the probability of occurence of an event, corresponding in this case to "be hired in a HS job". The study yielded different findings, highlighting how some main characteristics, as age, work experience and educational fields, impact on recruitment propensity and, on the other side, confirming that talent management is part of the Recruiting Human Resource function, able to support the company in the transformation of talent into high skill. These results could be used by policy makers to develop an effective vocational and educational training system aimed to guarantee more employability, and address managers in their human resource management. Moreover, they are in line with the European guidelines to have labour market information on current and future occupational needs, to identify the requirements in knowledge and skills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes 86,622 commercial motor vehicle (CMV) crashes (large truck, bus and taxi crashes) in South Korea from 2010 to 2014. The analysis recognizes the hierarchical structure of the factors affecting CMV crashes by examining eight factors related to individual crashes and six additional upper level factors organized in two non-nested groups (company level and regional level factors). The study considers four different crash severities (fatal, major, minor, and no injury). The company level factors reflect selected characteristics of 1,875 CMV companies, and the regional level factors reflect selected characteristics of 230 municipalities. The study develops a single-level ordinary ordered logit model, two conventional multilevel ordered logit models, and a cross-classified multilevel ordered logit model (CCMM). As the study develops each of these four models for large trucks, buses and taxis, 12 different statistical models are analyzed. The CCMM outperforms the other models in two important ways: 1) the CCMM avoids the type I statistical errors that tend to occur when analyzing hierarchical data with single-level models; and 2) the CCMM can analyze two non-nested groups simultaneously. Statistically significant factors include taxi company’s type of vehicle ownership and municipality’s level of transportation infrastructure budget. An improved understanding of CMV related crashes should contribute to the development of safety countermeasures to reduce the number and severity of CMV related crashes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Users' acceptability is considered one of the key drivers for the successful implementation of transport policy measures. This is especially crucial in the case of toll roads since they are financed through drivers' contributions. Previous literature in this field has mainly focused on measuring users' attitudes towards urban congestion pricing strategies. However limited research has been developed concerning interurban toll roads. Previous research shows that socioeconomic variables are not conclusive to explain users' perceptions towards tolls. By contrast, other drivers such as regional differences seem to play a more important role, especially when charging conditions within the same nation greatly vary across regions. This paper analyzes regional differences in users' attitudes within an asymmetrical distribution of the toll road network across regions. Based on a nationwide survey conducted to road users in interurban toll roads in Spain, we develop both a binomial logit and a censored regression (tobit) model to explore drivers' perceptions and willingness to pay. The research concludes that users from regions with a more extensive tolled network generally show a more negative attitude towards charges, but not necessarily a lower willingness to pay. The paper also points out that an asymmetrical distribution of toll roads across regions may result in negative perceptions among those users perceiving to be unfairly treated when compared to citizens in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mutual interactions between transportation and land use have long been debated. Despite progress made in computational technology, the study of these interactions is not adequately developed. The most important aspect of such interactions is given by the changes in land values due to changes in transportation infrastructures. We consider the behavioural features of these interactions along with the constraints on the land and/or zoning restrictions and propose a reliable model for the first time to predict land value changes with respect to changes in transportation facilities and accessibility. The proposed model is a logit-based mathematical programming methodology where the relative price of land is predicted with respect to transportation accessibility, neighbourhood amenities, location premium, availability of land, and zoning regulations. A real-world case study is used to exhibit the applicability of the proposed methodology and demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithms and procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The paper aims at the empirical identification of the nexus between innova- tion and internationalisation intensities in a sample of Polish manufacturing companies. Research Design & Methods: Using a unique dataset combining micro-level financial data from InfoCredit and results from an extensive survey we follow the approach of Altomonte, Aquilante, Ottaviano & Bekes (2013). We define innovation and internationalisation intensities and analyse the two dimensions disjointly and then simultaneously use formal econometric tools. Findings: Both dimensions are closely and robustly correlated. There is some evidence for the causality going from innovation to internationalisation. Polish manufacturing companies have in general low innovation and internationalisation intensity. Rising innovation intensity allows companies to become more internationalised and in particular, it raises their probability of exporting. Mean characteristics of firms, such as employment, sales or productivity, change along the two examined dimensions. Implications & Recommendations: Our results firmly support the postulates of the heterogeneous firms' trade theory. The results strongly support the introduction of a new type of economic policy in which internationalisation promotion and innovation promotion are simultaneously targeted at the level of a firm. Contribution & Value Added: We extensively analyse innovation and internationalisation intensities for manufacturing firms from Poland. Using a logit model we show their impact on the likelihood of exporting. We furthermore apply the classification of exporting firms along temporal and geographical dimensions identifying main features and links to the key dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies have been carried out with regard to seniors in many different tourism contexts over the past three decades. With an aging population, a large number of ‘future’ seniors are beginning to join the senior travel market. However, it is not known whether their travel preferences differ from those of today’s seniors or what types of information sources and accommodations future seniors prefer. Using the Penang Tourist Survey (PTS), this study applied the binomial logit model to pursue a comparative assessment of the travel preferences of golden (over age 50) seniors and future seniors in Penang, Malaysia. The findings showed a significant difference in travel preferences between the groups. The comparison allows the industry to anticipate any necessary changes in marketing strategies to better serve future senior travel customers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a food or convenience store, items such as meal and fresh foods must be sold within a few days. In this case, some old items are sold as clearance goods with a discounted price. In this study, a basic model with a fixed amount of orders is investigated where new and clearance goods are sold at the same time. First, the optimal ordering model is formulated when the discount price and selection probabilities are given. Next the optimal ordering and pricing model is formulated in the case that the discount retail price for clearance goods can be selected by a retailer and the amount of demand and selection probabilities for new and clearance goods depend on the discount price. The optimal number of orders and an optimal discount price are discussed through numerical experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we propose a restricted Liu regression estimator (RLRE) for estimating the parameter vector,β, in the presence of multicollinearity, when the dependent variable is binary and it is suspected thatβmay belong to a linear subspace defined byRβ = r. First, we investigate the mean squared error (MSE) properties of the new estimator and compare them with those of the restricted maximum likelihood estimator (RMLE). Then we suggest some estimators of the shrinkage parameter, and a simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the different estimators. Finally, we show the benefit of using RLRE instead of RMLE when estimating how changes in price affect consumer demand for a specific product. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In the present study, a novel empirical model has been developed with an aim to predict the sea ice area and its spatial distribution in the Liaodong Bay based on observed meteorological data of air temperature and wind speeds. The model indicates that the sea ice including the area and spatial distribution in the Liaodong Bay is strongly sensitive to the cumulative freezing degree days (CFDD), seaward winds and air temperature. The estimated sea ice area and spatial distribution are compared to the remotely-sensed data and the comparisons suggest that the model is able to account for 87% variability of the sea ice area. The sensitivity of the model results to the air temperature and wind speed is investigated as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are the atmospheric variables equally relevant for supermarket and hypermarket customers? As a contribution to the customers' choice of the store format, firstly this work aims to determine the perception of differences between hypermarkets and supermarkets in terms of store attributes. Second, it sheds light on the role played by atmospherics in the customers' decision process. This study uses alogitapproach to model the probabilistic choice of the customers' store format using atmospheric and other marketing variables as important attributes of the grocery store. The model's estimation is based on personal interviews conducted during the shopping process in urban supermarkets and hypermarkets belonging to the same retail chain. The findings show that although the atmospheric variables are significantly important for both store formats, the customers perceive differently the importance of each retail atmospheric cue and other marketing variables, when buying in a hypermarket or in a supermarket: the choice of buying in hypermarket is explained by the significant importance given to the latent variables namedpleasant atmosphereandaccessibility and responsiveness; in contrast, the choice of buying in supermarkets is explained by the significant importance given to the latent variablenice decorationandempathywith the staff. The other latent variable designated byother marketing variablesis only significantly important in the decision of choosing supermarkets. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper we demonstrate different approaches for estimating thresholds with respect to attribute differences in discrete choice models. The proposed new transformation functions can easily be applied in estimation software. The usefulness of these functions is tested with synthetic data. Extensive simulation shows that many observations are necessary to detect thresholds. And furthermore, the value of travel time savings of a model ignoring these thresholds is biased. The application to stated choice data reveals a significant threshold. However, the cause and the precise form of this threshold cannot be inferred from the data. The presented approach might also be useful to model thresholds in other contexts of choice behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among issues related to the environment, one of the most important issues is pricing the environment. In the present study, the outdoor recreational value of Chitgar Jungle Park of Tehran and its visitors' willingness to pay per visit (WTP) were estimated by using Contingent Valuation method (CV) and 140 questionnaires based on dichotomous choice. The results revealed that 30 percent of the surveyed people were willing to pay an entrance fee and the mean willingness to pay for each visitor was estimated at 3076 Rials and its total annual recreational value was estimated at 5 billion Rials. Among the effective variables on individuals' visit of this park, recommendation, income, per-visit cost, family size, and visits during a year were 1% significant; park facilities and quality were 5% significant; and the visitors' use of personal vehicles, education, type of house, as well as job were 10% significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, I describe the algorithm proposed by Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995, Econometrica 63: 841-890) to fit the random-parameters logit demand model from product market shares. I present a new command, blp, for this estimator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel logit model is presented that explicitly includes endogeneity in explanatory variables whose values depend on individual choice decisions that involve network externalities or social interactions such as those impacting road congestion or public transport comfort and convenience. The proposed specification corrects for this particular type of endogeneity. The model is derived from a linearly constrained maximum entropy optimization problem that incorporates the network externalities or social interactions causing the endogeneity. It is validated through simulations and an application to a case of transport mode choice in a Chilean city using real data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heterogeneous choice model (HCM) has been proposed as an extension of the standard logit and probit models, which allows taking into account different error variances of explanatory variables. In this note, I show that in an important special case, this model is just another way to specify an interaction effect. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The main aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors of Colorectal cancer in Lahore by using the Logistic model. It was aCross-sectional case control study. For this study, the information was collected from three public hospitals of Lahore including ANMOL, General Hospital and Shaikh Zayed. The required information consisting of 124 female subjects including 62 cases and 62 controls was obtained from January 2011 to May 2012. The factors were studied descriptively and analytically. By using the Logistic Regression model, Odds Ratios and 95% confidence intervals were obtained. Five factors including age, residential area, lifestyle, constipation, and fruit were found to be significant. The Odds Ratios and 95% confidence intervals of these factors were [1.107, 1.051- 1.167], [3.541, 1.040-12.052], [0.136, 0.037-0.499], [10.669, 3.031-67.553], and [0.169, 0.051-0.559], respectively. The constipation was observed to be the major risk factor of Colorectal cancer in females. The factors age, residential area and constipation were found to be directly related to Colorectal cancer. On the other hand, the lifestyle and fruit were observed to be protective factors against the Colorectal cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Transformations in Business & Economics is the property of Vilnius University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In travel demand models, traditional objective attributes (TOAs) are very commonly used as explanatory variables. Nowadays, it is understood that latent variables (LVs) also significantly influence travellers' behaviour. A hybrid choice modelling approach allows LVs in mode choice utility functions to be addressed. Specifically, a hybrid random parameter logit (HRPL) model has been developed to explore these influences. In this study, a traditional RPL (TRPL) model is compared with an HRPL model. For the later model, a two-step approach (also known as sequential approach) is implemented to incorporate LVs in choice models. Step 1 is the estimation of a MIMIC (multiple indicators and multiple causes) model; a type of regression model with a latent dependent variable(s). Step 2 is the estimation of a choice model with random parameters; information from the first step is incorporated in the second step. The paper analyses and compares the results of applying these models to a real urban case study using two datasets: 2008/09 and 2010/11 household travel survey (HTS) of Sydney Statistical Division (SSD), and also evaluates the predicted changes of mode choice probabilities based on hypothetical scenarios. Our results show that the HRPL model is superior to TRPL models that ignore the effect of LVs on traveller choice. The minimal changes in the parameter coefficients between the two datasets for each model suggest that the changes in traveller choice behaviour are gradual. Three hypothetical scenarios are simulated to forecast the changes that would be relevant to transport policy responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the article is to examine the impact of a job seeker's gender, education, age on their employment odds in Poland in 2011. The research includes Polish population which was economically active and aged 15 and more in 2011 (17,951 thousand people). The research tool was a logit model. The starting point for the analysis was the construction of a model that related employment to gender only. Then other models with many explanatory variables were constructed. Since the gender related odds ratios that have been determined for the sake of those models are interpreted under the assumption that the other variables are constant, it indicates that the women's and men's odds ratio remains the same in urban and rural areas, on every education level and in every age group. But in reality it is not true. This is why we estimated the models that contained only one explanatory variable (gender) for individual subgroups and models with the interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial early warning (FEW) models aim to help companies recognize possible financial crises and reduce financial risks through generating FEW messages. The current FEW models are mainly constructed by a set of financial indicators and the predictive accuracy has only been verified by these financial indicators rather than non-financial indicators. The issue in such a situation is that these financial indicators can be controlled or manipulated by related senior managerial personnel of companies, and therefore, using only financial indicators to verify FEW models cannot ensure the reliability of predictive accuracy of the models. To handle this issue, this paper develops a new FEW logit model which has better predictive accuracy than existing ones. More importantly, we propose a new approach which verifies the predictive accuracy of the logit model by using non-financial efficiency indicators of data envelopment analysis. An empirical study on Chinese company datasets revealed that the accuracy rates of predictions of the proposed model, for in-sample and out-of-sample companies, are 97.1% and 94.1% respectively, higher than existing results. Using non-financial efficiency indicators, the verification rates for the prediction results of the logit model for in-sample and out-of-sample companies are 95.8% and 96.2%, respectively. The findings show that the proposed FEW logit model has improved the accuracy of prediction and stability; the approach which uses non-financial efficiency indicators to verify the results of FEW logit model has significantly ensured the reliability of the FEW models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on contagion identification, this paper studies contagion channels and mechanisms of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. The securities markets of 25 economies are divided into non-contagious and contagious groups by using the adjusted volatility regression model. The 16 key indicators which represent the five contagion channels including macroeconomic fundamentals, trade, financial, regional and debt are selected to conduct both sectional and panel logit regression. The sectional model finds regional, financial and debt channels determine the probability of contagion. The panel model shows that trade and financial channel are main transmission channels. Bank capital asset ratios are significant but with opposite sign in both models, indicating that in the short term, although with high capital assets rates a number of banks bust due to the rapid crisis broken but in the long term the higher the rates, the greater to resist contagion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Certain soils encountered in practice are difficult or impossible to use for road building. To improve their mechanical properties, various methods of soil stabilization are applied. A widely used means of soil stabilization is the addition of hydraulic binders. In the methodology of designing of soil-binder mixtures it is important to determine how, based on variable parameters characterizing a sample of soil, to predict the grade of the binder and the quantity in which it is to be added to the soil in order for defined requirements to be met. This work describes an application of statistical logit model in designing soil-binder mixtures intended to be used for road foundations, subject to defined requirements as to their strength and frost resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Econometrics / Ekonometria is the property of Sciendo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract: We consider location-then-price game as a two stage game of n players on the graph. Logit analysis is used to model demand distribution between competitors. The use of multinomial logit model allows to compute shares in case of n players and proceed with studying price equilibrium. Price and location equilibria are constructed using best response dynamics. We apply proposed model to Russian and Chinese airline markets and find location and price equilibria for competitive airlines. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Recently, the high incidence of construction firm bankruptcies has underlined the importance of forecasting defaults in the construction industry. Early warning systems need to be developed to prevent or avert contractor default; additionally, this evaluation result could facilitate the selection of firms as collaboration or investment partners. Financial statements are considered one of the key basic evaluation tools for demonstrating firm strength. This investigation provides a framework for assessing the probability of construction contractor default based on financial ratios by using the Logit model. A total of 21 ratios, gathered into five financial groups, are utilized to perform univariate logit analysis and multivariate logit analysis for assessing contractor default probability. The empirical results indicate that using multivariate analysis by adding market factor to the liquidity, leverage, activity and profitability factors can increase the accuracy of default prediction more than using only four financial factors. While considering the market factor in the multivariate Logit model, clear incremental prediction performance appears in 1-year evaluation. This study thus suggests that the market factor comprises important information to increase the prediction performance of the model when applied to construction contractors, particularly in short-term evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The logit model is the most popular tool in estimating demand for differentiated products. In this model, the outside good plays a crucial role because it allows consumers to stop buying the differentiated good altogether if all brands simultaneously become less attractive (e.g. if a simultaneous price increase occurs). But practitioners lack data on the outside good when only aggregate data are available. The currently accepted procedure is to assume a 'market potential' that implicitly defines the size of the outside good (i.e. the number of consumers who considered the product but did not purchase); in practice, this means that an endogenous quantity is approximated by a reasonable guess thereby introducing the possibility of an additional source of error and, most importantly, bias. We provide two contributions in this paper. First, we show that structural parameters can be substantially biased when the assumed market potential does not approximate the outside option correctly. Second, we show how to use panel data techniques to produce unbiased structural estimates by treating the market potential as an unobservable in both the simple and the random coefficients logit demand model. We explore three possible solutions: (a) controlling for the unobservable with market fixed effects, (b) specifying the unobservable to be a linear function of product characteristics, and (c) using a 'demeaned regression' approach. Solution (a) is feasible (and preferable) when the number of goods is large relative to the number of markets, whereas (b) and (c) are attractive when the number of markets is too large (as in most applications in Marketing). Importantly, we find that all three solutions are nearly as effective in removing the bias. We demonstrate our two contributions in the simple and random coefficients versions of the logit model via Monte Carlo experiments and with data from the automobile and breakfast cereals markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from over 2000 convenience store customers within and outside London, this paper explores how individuals access their convenience stores and how significant the influence of their socio-demographics, shopping types and trip chaining is to their mode choice in visiting the stores. Trip chaining is found to be crucial in influencing customers' mode choice and their visit frequency. The application of logit models also shows that frequent shoppers are the ones most likely to visit the stores on foot. Interestingly, the estimation results also show that the location's density, shopping types and the day of the week are not significant in influencing travel modes. Customers who live in the most deprived areas are less likely to use a private car in visiting the stores. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: This paper examines the role of transportation demand management (TDM) policies on commuters’ mode choice in the city of Tehran. The analysis is based on the results of a stated preferences survey developed through the design of experiments approach. Five policies covering increasing parking cost, increasing fuel cost, cordon pricing, transit time reduction, and transit access improvement are assessed in order to study their impact on commuters’ consideration of six modes of transportation to travel to work. A multinomial logit model was developed for the 366 commuters who regularly commute to their workplace in the center of the city. In addition to a number of commuting and contextual variables, the model shows that the single policies main effect and multiple policies interactions are significant in affecting commuters’ mode choice. The marginal effects of policies are presented, and simultaneous effects of the policies on car usage variations are provided. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights: [•] A new discrete choice model with endogeneity is presented. [•] This new model forces the prediction of choice probabilities towards values of 0 or 1. [•] Endogeneity was corrected for using instrumental variables. [•] The new model, in an example case, provides better goodness-of-fit than multinomial and mixed logit models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Trying to understand what comprises and influences visitor satisfaction is one of the most relevant areas of research for the tourism sector. The aim of this study is to analyse which factors influence overall satisfaction with visitors to the museum, with particular interest in national origin, feelings, and motivations. The research is based on 1,038 questionnaires collectedfrom June to December 2011 among the visitors of the South Tyrol Museum of Archaeology (Ötzi) in Bolzano, Northern Italy. Logit models were used in order to estimate the set of independent variables which significantly influence both the overall satisfaction of the sample and the differences between Italian andforeign visitors in the perception of satisfaction. The results suggested that the overall satisfaction was related to the national origin of respondents, their feelings and motivations. Furthermore, opinion about showrooms and other services received during the visit appears to be positively and significantly related to overall satisfaction. From this knowledge, museum managers are more equipped to offer the optimal museum experience, as are museum marketers in their advertisement campaigns in Italy and abroad. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of analysis of innovative activities in the Polish manufacturing enterprises. Using data for the years 2006-2009, the effectiveness of innovative activities is estimated under two groups of models. The results indicate the significantly positively impact of soft expenditures on innovation activity and ineffectiveness of material outlays. Additionally, a significant, positive effect is demonstrated of the support from the European Union upon the efficiency of innovative activities in the Polish companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The principal objective of this article is to identify the financial variables that better explain the situation of business failure from the perspective of predictive Logit models in the small and medium enterprises in Colombia. Also, to verify the usefulness of the financial information provided by the type of companies that are analyzed. To achieve this end, accounting records were taken of all companies that are required to report to the Colombian Superintendent of Companies for the years 2005 to 2011. From these 40 financial ratios, five structural (independent variables) were calculated and categorical variables as its age, sector and size for different applied Logit models were added. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article deals with binomial logit models where the parameters are estimated within a Bayesian framework. Such models arise, for instance, when repeated measurements are available for identical covariate patterns. To perform MCMC sampling, we rewrite the binomial logit model as an augmented model which involves some latent variables called random utilities. It is straightforward, but inefficient, to use the individual random utility model representation based on the binary observations reconstructed from each binomial observation. Alternatively, we present in this article a new method to aggregate the random utilities for each binomial observation. Based on this aggregated representation, we have implemented an independence Metropolis-Hastings sampler, an auxiliary mixture sampler, and a novel hybrid auxiliary mixture sampler. A comparative study on five binomial datasets shows that the new aggregation method leads to a superior sampler in terms of efficiency compared to previously published data augmentation samplers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A survey on the economic and social conditions of households in the city of Modena was carried out in 2002 and in 2006 (two waves) by the CAPP (Centre for Analyses of Public Policies). In the first wave of 2002, each designated sampling unit (i.e., the family) had three units as reserves. If the first refused to be interviewed, the interviewer contacted the three reserves, one after the other, until obtaining either one respondent or four non-participant units. At the end of the survey four categories of units were distinguished: interviewees, refusals, noncontacts, and unused reserves. All units were matched with their corresponding record in the databases of the Ministry of Finance of 2002 and the Census of 2001. The resulting data set permitted the analysis of unit or total nonresponses. The distribution of fiscal income showed different shapes for the four categories, implying a selective participation of the families. The interviewees yielded a positive bias of about 600€, holding constant other factors. The selection of the significant factors affecting nonresponse was performed via backward elimination in a logit model and with the lasso method. Participation increased as fiscal income and age increased and by education level (secondary school and university degree), while it decreased among entrepreneurs, independent workers, managers, and medium-to-low skilled workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a new statistical instrument-free method to tackle the endogeneity problem. The proposed method models the joint distribution of the endogenous regressor and the error term in the structural equation of interest (the structural error) using a copula method, and it makes inferences on the model parameters by maximizing the likelihood derived from the joint distribution. Similar to the "exclusion restriction" in instrumental variable methods, extant instrument-free methods require the assumption that the unobserved instruments are exogenous, a requirement that is difficult to meet. The proposed method does not require such an assumption. Other benefits of the proposed method are that it allows the modeling of discrete endogenous regressors and offers a new solution to the slope endogeneity problem. In addition to linear models, the method is applicable to the popular random coefficient logit model with either aggregate-level or individual-level data. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method via a series of simulation studies and an empirical example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The study documents comprehensive analysis on informal groundwater marketing in upland Balochistan, Pakistan. Informal groundwater markets are emerging as a feasible option to manage increasing water scarcity and declining water tables resulting from poor groundwater policies. Firstly, we evaluated the groundwater trading mechanism; we then examined factors affecting the groundwater trading using empirical data and logit econometric models. We did not observe any permanent groundwater transactions; only temporary groundwater exchange takes place. Two common transactions methods were noted – water in exchange for a given crop share and cash payment at a flat rate per hour. In all, 60% of respondents reported selling water in exchange for a crop share. This form of transaction intensifies as we move from high altitude areas to low altitude areas where water and land are relatively abundant. In general, crop sharing rates were 33% of crop output. Water trading in the form of cash transactions was practiced by 40% of respondents. The charge per hour also varied with altitude, with average prices of Rs. 100, [1] USD=Pakistan Rupees (Rs) 85 as of June 2011. 1 Rs. 112, and Rs. 205 per hour reported at low, medium and high altitudes, respectively. The increase in this form of water marketing as we move from low to high altitude areas is mainly in response to relatively scarce water and land in high altitude areas. The results of empirical models indicates that among others, cropping intensity, area under high value fruits, decline in watertable, tubewell reliability, alternate source of irrigation, and soil quality are important variables influencing water buying and selling decisions. Importantly, personal attributes such as kinships, age, and education were also found to be important factors affecting water buying and selling decisions. In upland Balochistan, the water markets appears to provide a cushion against increasing water scarcity by averting risk to high value horticultural crops and enhancing water use efficiency, as it helps overcome the problem of over irrigation or misuse of water by facilitating the sale of surplus or extra water and more sparing and efficient use of purchased water. It is envisaged that groundwater markets will continue to plays a key role in sustaining high value crops and will continue to make a significant contribution in upland Balochistan. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]